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  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  10:32:26 PM
Pivot Analysis levels for tomorrow. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/23/03,  10:03:01 PM
Market Monitor Performance We are receiving some complaints that the desktop monitor is not refreshing reliably on older computers. Primarily Win95 and Win98 PCs with 64MB or less and mostly on dialup connections. It is not a problem with your computer but more a problem of resources. After lunch the number and size of the posts grow to as much as 125K to 150K in size and manipulating that much data every 30-60 seconds on the slower computers causes the connection to time out.

We are modifying the monitor to incorporate some changes everyone has requested and we are going to improve the handling of the data as well. These changes should be completed this weekend.

We will have the option of having both the Market Monitor and the Futures Monitor open at once in different screens or combined on the same screen. We are simplifying the option window with some instant change buttons on the front page. Once we complete these changes we will turn on the alert feature that allows you to set an alert for a trade recommendation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  6:11:43 PM
Alway review your errors My profiled bearish trade for day traders was not a good one today was it? However, I'm glad I profiled and used a stop loss in the trade, and traded the "levels." (see 12:36:19 profile). I just "knew" that USAI was going down, and going down hard. So much so, that I actually used a stop!. Here's how the intra-day chart played out. What I was looking for never happened (USAI going below $21.80) so I kind of thought "not good" after about 15-minutes. Then USAI starts hovering either side of of $21.92 for about 20-minutes (or crud, it saw a 5-minute close above that level), then BINGO, it makes the break above $21.96 and away form today's R1 of $21.92, right through 80.9% retracement of $22.06 and right up to today's R2 of $22.33.

Here's a completed chart of today's action. I was wrong on my thinking, but "right" on where my stop was profiled and saved some pain. "Should have" turned and gone long, but I lacked conviction based on ROOM observations.Link

It's also "interesting" how USAI seemed to trade the levels of retracement intra-day that were not S1 or R1 levels. It is this type of trade action that has me "convinced" to some degree that computers are taking the daily S2 and R2 levels, then calculating other levels intra-day, to then trade stocks with this type of mathematical process.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  5:32:11 PM
Pro forma or GAAP? Hello Jeff,

Would it be possible in your email updates, when discussing company earnings, whether they are "Pro Forma" or GAAP.

Just a request if possible - keep up the great work!

Sincerely,

Rick

Great suggestion, however, here's my response.

I try to do this when they are mentioned. Most don't say if they are pro-forma or GAAP and sometimes, it is anyone's best guess as just what type of accounting is being used.(Pro forma or GAAP, I do think company's have learned that OBS or Off Balance Sheet accounting is no longer widely accepted).

I do know (AND LIKE) that CSCO reports BOTH, so that no matter what analyst's use in their estimates, CSCO reports both as to eliminate any confusion. Most numbers that I've seen are reported pro forma, and then there is the adendom of "one-time charges."

Today's earnings from T is probably why most companies prefer pro forma. I think the "one-time charges" related to DSL and employee reductions really messed things up with regards to analysts trying to figure into their estimates just what the bottom line EPS was going to be. As noted, the revenue numbers were pretty close to expectations, but the pro forma variable really created the "uncertainty" that sent the stock falling.

So... as you can see, who knows if the analyst's numbers are pro forma or GAAP numbers? Even tonight, JDSU reported earnings and it looked like they missed estimates by 8 cents, yet revenues of $156.6 million, was pretty above the $152.9 million consensus.

What this does is makes me "guess" if JDSU was reporting pro forma or GAAP? As a "market commentator" I'm not comfortable "guessing" at the accounting used, have a trader go in and risk money on my bad information. I make enough stupid mistakes with my typing without trying to guess if a company just reported pro forma or GAAP numbers.

With the stock bidding higher in after-hours at $2.91, I'm thinking JDSU just reported GAAP numbers. However, the traders that sold $2.82 in after-hours just after the release of earnings, probably "guessed" that the bottom line "miss" was pro forma.

Anyway.... I agree with you on trying to report if the numbers were pro forma or GAAP, but if I'm not sure, I'll just report the numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  4:00:23 PM
Major Divergence Between ROOM -1.48% and USAI +5% today, and this observation needs some thought. It could be that there is a slight "short-squeeze" underway in USAI, as I don't think there should be this much divergence between the two. USAI owns roughly 39 million shares of ROOM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  3:56:30 PM
What’s happened today? If you’re in a bearish or a bullish trade, do you hold overnight? Looking at the OEX, I note that the hourly 5(3)3 stochastics have zoomed up to overbought levels today and have made a bearish kiss. These fast stochastics are notorious for giving false signals, however, and a bearish kiss isn’t the same thing as an actual rollover. I note a bullish kiss on the daily 5(3)3 stochastics. I note a daily white candle that’s about equal in size to yesterday’s red candle. I remember those two new sell signals today, courtesy of Jeff’s alerts offered in last night’s newsletter. Bearish traders should assess their abilities to weather a move up to 454, then to higher (and stronger) resistance in the 458-461 area. Bullish traders should keep in mind the change in condition on the bullish percent for the OEX, as well as the looming worries about next week’s UN meeting. Technically, the longer term daily 21(5)3 stochastics still point down, perhaps blunting any rally ability.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  3:53:32 PM
ROOM $44.43 -1.9% ... stock lower into the close. Looks to me like somebody is finishing out a daily sell order in the stock. Has been a lid at $44.50 for entire last half of the session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  3:53:19 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/23/03,  3:49:08 PM
Following up on my 3:30 post, I took a look at the NYSE breadth via the ADVDECV.NY indicator. Isn't it interesting that despite all the time the DOW spent underwater, this indicator (like the corresponding one for the NASDAQ) never went negative? It's an easy observation to make now, with the day winding down, but one that deserves to be filed away for future reference.

The other interesting obwervation I would make is the behavior of the VIX. After topping out near 33 at the open, the VIX continued to fall throughout the day, now down nearly 5% and back near its closing levels on Tuesday. It looks to me like a fair amount of fear of the downside evaporated in the past couple hours.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   1/23/03,  3:41:42 PM
Covered-Call Candidates
A quick scan offers a couple candidates to consider: VRTS $18.90 (+1.53), the FEB-$17.50 call (VIV BW) $2.15 x $2.25, monthly based yield ~ 4.9%, cost basis $16.70; FEIC $16.10 (+0.53), the FEB-$15.00 call (FQE BC) $1.85 x $2.10, monthly based yield ~ 5.6%, cost basis $14.21; CBST $8.05 (+0.85), the FEB-$7.50 call $1.05 x $1.25, monthly based yield ~ 7.6%, cost basis $6.98.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  3:38:18 PM
Beautiful trade, Steve. Looking over the day, I see that the bulk of the breadth and sentiment indicators have barely twitched, signally steady buying pressure and optimism. The one major dip in the COMPX kicked off an extreme reading on the p/c ratio of .48, and the TRINQ below .20 for several minutes. Other than that, we've seen a steady drift north. The stochastics have done so as well, and the test will come at 1400 COMPX, now just 8 points above the high of the day.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  3:34:48 PM
Swing Trade Signals
So far a nice start to the long entry at 8275. Conservative traders may want to raise the stop to the break-even level. I have vacillated between 8275 and leaving my stop where it is (8175) to allow for some bouncing between 8200 and 8300. The other alternative is below today's low of 8255 and the Dec 31 low of 8242, with a stop at 8240. For now, I'll leave it where it is, but all of these alternatives have merit.

Current levels: Dow 8377/SPX 889/OEX 451.97/COMP 1391

As I have said, I am simply playing an oversold bounce to the long side, which I do not expect to take us higher than SPX 900/COMP 1400/Dow 8500. I will look to harvest gains if we approach those levels, so traders may want to decide just how much risk/reward they are willing to deal with from the current level.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/23/03,  3:30:38 PM
Technology challenges have kept me offline for the bulk of the day, but now that I have my charts up and running, I can see that the NASDAQ has really been the key to what has been a rather small-range, bifurcated session. Noting that the COMPX never went into negative territory. More importantly, the ADVDECV.NQ indicator never went negative either, indicating that up volume has had the lead throughout the day. Looking at the 5-min charts, I see a pattern of higher lows and higher highs throughout the day on both the COMPX and the ADVDECV.NQ after the initial drop. Hindsight is 20-20, but this is another session where watching the ADVDECV indicator would have kept an intraday trader from trying to short into a tape that just wanted to lift all day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  3:30:16 PM
Currently at 384.16, the Russell 2000 has now moved up to test the underside of that former support line, broken on Tuesday. If the Russell moves above that line (at approximately 385.50), it will next test the simple 22 and 50-dma’s, in the 390-391 areas.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  3:24:49 PM
If the Dow closes here (8375), tomorrow's pivot would be 8336. R1 would be 8418, and R2 at 8461. S1 would be 8293, and S2 at 8211. With that said, bears are going to do something in the next hour or risk getting squeezed during tomorrow's opening. Bulls seem to have the slight upper hand.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  3:24:44 PM
Currently at 30.78, the VIX has dropped fast from its move above 32 and is now down 1.23 on the day. There was a lot of call buying going on in the last hour!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  3:18:02 PM
Volume stands at 1.3 billion for the NYSE and 1.2 billion for the Nasdaq, with adv/dec figures showing a 1.42 ratio for the NYSE and a 1.23 ratio for the Nasdaq. Up volume is 1.8 times down volume on the NYSE and 3.5 times down volume on the Nasdaq. New highs are above new lows, but at more modest ratios than in the previous two weeks.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  3:08:33 PM
The COMPX has broken through the 1380 s/r zone for the second time today, bringing into view next resistance at 1400. All of the other indicators are virtually unchanged, but these new highs toward the end of the day must be lifting spirits considerably. HUI has slipped below the 150 level, though XAU continues to hold above 80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  3:01:54 PM
Correction! to the daily pivot analysis points for the QQQ that I've been posting. I must not have "saved" my spreadsheet updates from last night's Index Trader Wrap, and have been quoting previous QQQ levels. Correct QQQ levels for today should be, S2=24.46, S1=24.70, P = $25.12, R1=25.36, R2=25.78.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  2:58:29 PM
A few subsribers are wondering about Amazon.com (AMZN), set to report earnings after the close. My gut feeling, without even looking at a chart, is neutral. AMZN is no real exception; however, I would be tilted into the bullish camp. Looking at a P&F chart of AMZN, it seems to only get ugly with an 18 print. The top of the band comes in at 27 dollars, which isn't close to current levels. The Internet sector is in Bull Confirmed status, currently at 34% and does have some room to run to the upside. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  2:53:55 PM
On this latest push up in the indices, the VIX has moved down and currently measures to 31.47, so far failing in its test today of its 200-ema.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  2:51:07 PM
Dow Indu 8,350 +30 points .... claws its way back to 8,350 after finding pullback support in last 20-minutes at 8,320..... will monitor things here and test of 8,361 will be interesting. If Dow can get above 8,361 with a decent move, then may spur some short-covering action.

QQQ trying to make a move above today's pivot of $25.51, here at $25.58.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  2:46:14 PM
The put to call ratio at .60, FVX down from its recent highs, up 2.5 bps, and the COMPX is trading at 1380. Very little has changed, while the US Dollar Index continues to trade south of 100.00. It's difficult to predict where the COMPX wants to go from here. While today is working off the extremely oversold readings, the ability to follow through is uppermost in bulls' minds.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   1/23/03,  2:38:10 PM
Covered-Call Portfolio
The strength in the NASDAQ this morning has helped some of the Tech issues in our covered-call portfolio recover. Webmethods (NASDAQ:WEBM) continues to rally off of Tuesday's earnings report and may be causing some "call-selling" regret. Emisphere Technologies (NASDAQ:EMIS) and Luminex (NASDAQ:LMNX) continue to consolidate their recent rallies. A test towards support around $4.50 on falling volume for these speculative issues can be expected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  2:34:44 PM
What Happened? from 02:15:17 post.... don't see any type of news. Quick check of daily/weekly pivots does show that rather "suspicious" drop too place with Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,333 trading right at "round number" type of level at 8,350. This is just below the weekly S2 of 8,361.

QQQ $25.43 here was also trading at its daily PIVOT of $25.51. Very interesting indeed and will get a bear's curiosity and perhaps a berish trade with stops just above these levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  2:31:02 PM
Here’s what happened with the bearish rising wedge noted earlier in the five-minute SOX chart, showing the expected breakdown from the pattern. Note that the 5(3)3 stochastics had been forming a series of higher lows while the SOX was forming that wedge, and that the stochastics lows broke below their own rising support when the SOX broke out of the wedge. You can watch for patterns on oscillators, too. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  2:30:58 PM
Jeff, the power of the pivot! Pivot at 8357 and high pullback took the blue chips to 8353. We only only back to the lower retracement of 8325. No real damage done.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  2:19:02 PM
Watching a few big caps today, I note that CSCO, at 14.44 as I type this note, did move above its 200-ema. The next test for strength in this market-moving stock is the 14.75 level, and above that is the 15.20 historical resistance. A move above the 15.20 level would probably see that reverse H&S neckline tested, while a move back below the 200-ema or a failure at one of those listed resistance levels would be considered more bearish.

I would note that although this big-cap stock shows some strength, the Russell 2000 has not yet been able to climb back above the trendline it recently broke, a trendline that perhaps describes the neckline of a regular H&S formation.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  2:17:15 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Not sure what the reason is for the sudden fade after we had a nice rally going. We are still green, but I certainly don't like sudden pullbacks.

Current levels: Dow 8332/SPX 884.07/OEX 449.00/COMP 1379

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  2:15:17 PM
What Happened!!!! I'm not kidding, I just posted QQQ at $25.51 and Dow up 34-points. Dow falls 15-points real quick. On the alert here, and looking for what took place.

It wasn't a sell program, as my premium alert at $-2.36 wasn't triggered.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  2:13:00 PM
QQQ $25.52 +2.36% .... right back at today's pivot of $25.51. If I hadn't had a losing trade with USAI, which is a QQQ/NDX component, I'd take a wack at a short entry here, but will think the better right now as the Dow Industrials (INDU) +34-points now looks to try and pull free from its lows.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  2:11:22 PM
It was just yesterday when I profiled the "P" formation in Gold, and the possibility of both a short squeeze and longs getting involved once back above the apex just under 78. I definitely believe that 'failed patterns' work very well. The XAU is currently at 80.80 and higher by four percent. Here is yesterday's chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  2:06:05 PM
The CBOE put to call ratio has dropped a touch to .62, while the FVX has risen to 2.904%, +3.6 bps. The TRINQ is down to .34, TICK.NQ -64. The COMPX poked it head briefly above 1382 before slipping back to 1380 even, where it currently trades. Will the bulls or the bears blink first?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  2:00:55 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  1:56:32 PM
With the NYSE trading just over a billion shares and the Nasdaq trading just under that amount, advancers pull ahead on both. Adv/dec ratios are 1.42 on NYSE-traded issues and 1.08 on Nasdaq-traded issues. Up/down ratios are stronger, though, with up volume 1.47 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.83 times down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  1:51:25 PM
I got some emails on the retracement between S2 and R2; therefore, I decided to do a chart on the Dow. The objective now is to test the pivot at 8357. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Kent Barton   1/23/03,  1:50:38 PM
Amgen (AMGN) $53.18 +0.70: Ticking higher here ahead of tonight's earnings report. Looking at a daily chart, we can see that $53.00 has acted as resistance on several occasions since last May. With shares already trading above this level, it looks like a technical breakout might be taking place. A positive announcement tonight could really put the bears on the defensive.

Strength in the biotech giant would help to push the BBH Biotech HOLDRS (currently a PI long play) back towards the relative high of $94.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  1:40:16 PM
That certainly looks like a bearish rising wedge on the five-minute SOX chart, with an apex at 297, perhaps to go along with the one Jonathan noticed on the COMPX. Link If I remember my resources well, I believe prices break out of or down from wedges about 2/3 of the way into that formation. That should occur soon, then. As several of us have said, patterns formed on five-minute charts often aren’t as reliable as patterns formed on longer-term charts, but it can still be helpful to watch those pattern sto see if the next close-term support or resistance might soon be tested.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  1:35:56 PM
The QQV dropped nicely on this most recent runup to the 1380 confluence zone, now down .98 to 36.92, while the TRINQ fell back to .37 and the TICK.NQ rose to +16. FVX is +2.7 bps now, off its lows and adding a dash of credibility to the move. I'm thinking that yet another failure at 1380 would be demoralizing to bulls hoping for that gap up to stick, and with the put to call ratio near the low end of its range, there's only so much additional bullish speculation they can count on.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  1:34:41 PM
EMC $7.37 (+0.39) OI stock play EMC, listed originally at $6.33 on 11/17, received an upgrade today from Pac Crest following its earnings release, which matched expectations for a $0.02 per share profit. The CFO said he expects flat technology spending with a slight upward bias, while the CEO expects data storage spending to increase slightly in 2003. Nothing earth shattering, but a departure from the sell-offs we've seen in other stocks with similar outlooks.

 
 
  Kent Barton   1/23/03,  1:31:32 PM
Deluxe Corp (DLX) $39.59 +1.13: After three day of relatively large losses, it's not too surprising to see that DLX is finding some buyers after reaching the $38.00-$38.50 area of congestion. If shares continue higher we'll be looking for $40.00 (formerly support) to provide resistance. A rollover from this level might provide traders with a fresh entry point.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  1:21:41 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We are back in the green in the major indices. We are currently long a 1/2 position from Dow 8275 and I would think about adding to that position if we take out the highs of the day. More conservative traders may want to wait for a break over Dow 8400 before adding to the position. I'm going to leave my stop at 8175, but conservative traders can think about raising the stop just below the low of the day (8255), possibly to 8240, which would also be below the Dec 31 low of 8242. AT&T (T) continues to weigh on the Dow, with a loss of $5.05.

Current levels: Dow 8328/SPX 884.24/OEX 449.19/COMP 1378

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  1:19:50 PM
USAI $21.96 .... stopped from short at $21.85.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  1:00:40 PM
Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert McTeer said today that the U.S. economy was unlikely to fall back into recession, and that the stage for continued growth is "set reasonably well." McTeer went on to say, "I think the outlook for 2003 is certainly not for a relapse or a double dip, maybe not for a booming economy. . ." McTeer is not a voting member, but called the monetary policy "very accommodative" and noted the U.S. budget had swung from surplus to deficit. "That's unfortunate, I think, but in terms of counter-cyclical demand management that's what's supposed to happen."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  1:00:23 PM
ROOM Making a bit of a note here..... Salomon Smith Barney (market maker ID: SMSH), shows up as a seller on the offer at $44.52. I don't remember seeing them in last couple of days doing much more that 100 shares bid/offer in recent sessions.

For you day traders that do trade with Level II, here's a link to various market maker IDs. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  12:52:55 PM
It looks like a gently sloping and imperfect rising wedge on the 5 minute COMPX, and I continue to watch the 1380 confluence zone as the arbiter of any moves north. The TRINQ is at .40, FVX +2.3 bps, TICK.NQ well into positive territory for a change at +198, and the p/c ratio last reading at .64. Little has changed within this narrow range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  12:52:54 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,307 -0.13%, or -10 points. Dow has rallied here for third time now on intra-day basis. "Make the tie" perhaps to USAI, even though it isn't a Dow component that it too is at potentially important near-term resistance.

Thinking becomes... if I start seeing some upside action ABOVE where I think resistance should be found, then short-term trader has to "switch" a bit from short-term bearish to short-term bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  12:52:30 PM
Can the NDX rally, allowing the 5(3)3 daily stochastics to push up out of oversold levels? Possibly, but the NDX is going to have to work hard to push up more than a few points above today’s high. Link Grouped overhead are resistance from multiple MA’s (both 200-dma’s and the simple 22 and 50-dma’s) and a trend line broken earlier in the week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  12:38:49 PM
On behalf of readers and myself, I thank Jeff for suggesting in his wrap last night that we set alerts on MRK, BA, CAT, AXP, and GM, as new P&F sell signals on any two of those stocks would reverse the S&P Bullish % back to bull-correction status. Setting those alerts (and having two of them sound so far) was an easy way to monitor one measure of overall market health today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  12:36:19 PM
USAI Inc. (USAI) $21.85 +1.58% ... day trader short here after last 5-minute rally to today's R1 of $21.92 finds sellers at $21.91. Short market, stop $21.95 (5-minute close above $21.92) and target $21.50 before close.

Here is 5-minute chart of what I'm looking at. Link Using today's S2 and R2 for retracement range. "First test" for weakness is bear wants to see USAI below $21.80, when 5-minute Stochs get "oversold." If not, then need to monitor for a 5-minute close ABOVE the daily R1, with eyeball stop at around $21.95.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  12:32:53 PM
Yesterday CSCO did battle with its 200-ema, and the 200-ema came away the winner. Today, CSCO returns to the battle. Currently trading at 14.27, CSCO edges above the 14.24 200-ema. Again, I caution readers to watch for closes above or below such key levels rather than brief moves above or below them. At the end of the day yesterday, it looked very different for CSCO to have tested and failed from that level than it might have looked to have CSCO close above it. Today, a second test and failure would look even worse.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  12:29:36 PM
When getting retracements from S2 to R2, I do have some problems getting the retracements to line up EXACTLY when doing my studies. I would not worry too much about this. If anyone knows how to do it to the EXACT decimal every time, please let me know. If S2 is 8219 and I can only get to 8220 or 8219.7, I would not lose too much sleep over it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  12:22:12 PM
At 2215.99 as of this writing, the Dow Jones Transportation index hovers near yesterday’s low of 2213.50.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  12:20:37 PM
On the phone with Bailey about the Dow going into "Bear Confirmed" status today. Note: The blue-chips have not tested the low during the first five-minutes (8320) yet. I also talked with Bailey about how EXPE, USAI, and ROOM trade together. Jeff definitely has a good handle on those stocks. I, however, do not.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  12:17:52 PM
Kohl's (KSS) $53.00 (-0.51) OI put play KSS, picked at $56.60, set a new relative low this morning, but is now holding just above the Jan 8 dip. Conservative traders can look to take some chips off the table, while more aggressive traders can look for a breakdown below today's low to target $50.00. I probably wouldn't recommend new entries after the bounce off those lows, but I'm not ready to take gains just yet, either. However, I have no argument with anyone harvesting profits after a drop of close to $4.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  12:14:35 PM
Many have asked, here's the answer: The Qcharts symbols for commodities futures are explained at the following Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  12:12:18 PM
The CBOE put to call ratio has falled a bit to .62. As a trader with bearish equity positions on, it does my heart a world of good to see the willingness of the p/c ratio to fall. During October, the p/c ratio had a nasty habit of spiking- too many cooks, or rather too many bears. Combine this with a persistently low TRINQ (currently .36), QQV negative (.21 on the day), and you have the bulk of my reason for maintaining these bearish positions. FVX has risen with the bounce in the COMPX, currently +2.8 bps. I am therefore a little more on edge, just in case of some surprise strength.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  11:52:03 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  11:47:45 AM
Jonathan’s impression that he is seeing a few issues holding up the indices might be backed up by volume patterns on the Nasdaq. Advancing issues and declining issues are nearly equal, but up volume is more than twice down volume. That indicates to me that the buying is concentrated in certain issues.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  11:42:12 AM
The TICK.NQ is getting down there at -368, while the TRINQ continues to reflect heavy buying pressure- again this looks like distribution to me, with a few issues holding up the entire index. FVX continues to languish, +1.6 bps.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  11:35:47 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were triggered on the 1/2 long position earlier at 10:35 and for those who missed it the first time around again at 11:34. We are still long only a 1/2 position, with a stop at Dow 8175.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  11:34:18 AM
Put to call ratio last at .65. QQV -.79 on the day. Bullish speculation continues to dominate.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  11:33:35 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We ticked below my initial 1/2 long entry point and those traders looking to trigger the long at Dow 8275 will have another crack if we get a rebound.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  11:32:35 AM
Reader Question: Can you tell me when Amazon is releasing earnings? I heard it was this morning. Can’t find it anywhere.

Response: Amazon reports after the close. Thanks for asking, because it gives me the opportunity to mention again to other readers who might want to check on earnings release dates that OptionInvestor links you to an event and earnings calendar. You’ll find it on the sidebar on the left side of the home page.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  11:28:23 AM
The FVX is printing a low of the day here, up just 1.6 bps, as the TRINQ rises to a low .42 and the TICK.NQ drops to -173. The COMPX is trading at 1368, and failed to even challenge the 1377-82 confluence zone on this latest leg up.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  11:28:06 AM
One Index I will continue to follow is the Utilities Index (UTY). The 260 area has been important for quite some time, and today's 1% move higher is taking this sector back towards this area of resistance (currently at 255.53). In the chart attached, note how the retracement levels seemed to cap the relative high, yesterday's low, as well as give more importance to the 260 level. It isn't perfect, but close. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  11:11:24 AM
The US Dollar Index is printing new lows at 99.80.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  11:07:58 AM
At 32.36 currently, the VIX popped above its 200-ema at 32.50 then pulled back. The day’s still young, however. Might get interesting.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  11:06:07 AM
The put to call ratio has come in at .66, and the TRINQ remains stuck in the low .30s, TICK.NQ -23. The ADVDECV line went strongly positive on this move off the COMPX lows but price hasn't yet touched the 1376 "pivot" seen in the opening chop. The metals continue to trade strong, and the COMPX continues to feel weak but fickle to me.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  11:00:29 AM
As the Dow bounces without hitting its December low (8242), let us take a look elsewhere. The Bank of Canada is expecting 4.0% to 4.5% inflation for the 1Q, with 3% growth in 2003. In other news, front month gold is higher by $7.00 at $366.80 (GCG3). The Dollar is weaker against both the yen and euro, as well as the Canadian Dollar; therefore, this could be helping gold as well. Getting back to corporates, there is fear that AT&T's cash tender for $4bln in debt might mean issuance of stock (read: dilution). AT&T bonds (maturing in 2011 and 2031) are +258 and +283 basis points over Treasuries, respectively. Not good.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  11:00:06 AM
Early in January, I began noting a divergence in the Dow Jones Transports and the other markets. January 7, $TRAN began testing its 200-ema, ahead of the other indices, so the strength in the $TRAN diverged from what the other markets were doing. Since the $TRAN sometimes leads the other indices, I just made note (in my own records as well as on the Monitor). By the time the other indices began testing their 200-ema’s, on January 14, the $TRAN had already failed and gapped away from that important moving average, so that the $TRAN’s actions did not confirm the actions of the broader markets. For my own trading purposes, I will note that this divergence did seem to portend the recent weakness in the broader markets. If I see that divergence again, I’ll be alerted, just as I will if I see a divergence in the pattern of new highs/new lows to adv/dec or up/down volume patterns. I won’t make trading decisions based on this information alone, but it certainly is nice to have a warning now and then, isn’t it?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  10:54:02 AM
Hotels.com (ROOM) $45.05 -0.02% ... mentioned this one yesterday as bearish near $45.50. This morning, stock rallied to session high of $46.15, but couldn't hold a 5-minute close above the $46.08 level, which was today's R1 from pivot analysis. Some February $45 put trader sold the (URDNI) at $2.15 right at the morning high on ROOM as the stock looked like it was going to make a move higher. Reason I'm watching this one rather close, is I hold the Feb. $45 puts (URDNI) from yesterday. Right now, need a 5-minute close below $44.78 and would like to see a close below today's S1 of $44.24.

Point made here is that the pivot levels can help an option trader with execution and sometimes bring "calm" to emotions as levels can be monitored. I'm telling you. There's something about this "5-minute close" that becomes important. I truly believe market makers and especially some type of computer run buy/sell programs for individual stocks and the indexes are being run using these levels. It's so "computer-like" it isn't funny.

Its "fun" to trade EXPE, USAI and ROOM in unison as they are so well tied together. This mornining, USAI first to show weakness, then EXPE started to soften from its highs, then ROOM got hit to downside.

Trader's have heard of "pairs trading," and I like these three as "triplet trading."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  10:51:30 AM
Volume patterns: Up volume leads down volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq by a 225:144 ratio on the NYSE and a 265:154 ratio on the Nasdaq. Advancers are ahead on the NYSE, by a 16:13 ratio, but behind on the Nasdaq, by a ratio of 13 advancers to 14 decliners. New highs lead new lows on both, but new lows continue to gain ground, with 27 new lows on the NYSE and 26 new lows on the Nasdaq. Early in the year, we were seeing numbers below ten for new lows.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  10:50:29 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I'd like to apologize for the entry that posted after we hit the 8275 trigger point. We were hit while I typed and sent. We are currently holding just above that level and traders can either enter at current levels or wait for a failed sell-off below that level and then a trigger on the way up. The signal was for a long 1/2 position.

Current levels: Dow 8278/SPX 879.23/OEX 446.40/COMP 1367.

For those traders who were short on my last suggestion back at 8590-8600, I'd tighten up stops once again, as I'm looking to the other side now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  10:46:44 AM
Note: John might object to my attributing my expectation of a 449.50-450 failure to him! I was referring to John’s theory that we might be seeing an “open test drive” pattern emerging.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  10:42:45 AM
I’m getting an alert here that the OEX has moved back above the level of the gap after falling to its day’s lows. Based on John’s theory, I would expect to see a failure again at the 449.50-450 level. In addition to the historical S/R I see at 449.50 on the charts, I note that 450 is also the daily R1 level from John’s and Jeff’s calculations. Watch oscillators and other indicators as the OEX approaches that level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  10:41:26 AM
The put to call ratio for this past half hour has just come in at .65. The TRINQ remains very low at .32, TICK.NQ -163. The five year yield is up 3 bps. XAU and HUI have backed off their highs but are still above round number resistance of 80 and 150 respectively. Feb gold broke 367/oz. QQQ is currently 25.26, with the COMPX just below 1370.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  10:38:01 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
As I entered the last post we ticked higher into my trigger. We are now long a 1/2 position at the current levels, with the Dow trading 8275 at 10:35:00. Stop is set at 8175.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  10:36:54 AM
Head/shoulders pattern Had an e-mail question regarding "head/shoulder top" patterns, with question on QCOM. I didn't see a h/s pattern in QCOM, so went looking to try and find an "example." One that I found was in the Semiconductor HOLDR's (AMEX:SMH) Link

Also looked at p/f chart. Trade at $22.00 would be bearish. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  10:35:40 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I am going to average into a bounce play from an area of strong support with a tight stop in case that support fails. The Dow is being dragged down mostly by AT&T and SBC and we could get a snap back bounce in the short term when those sell-offs are complete. Go long a 1/2 position at Dow 8275, with a stop at 8175.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  10:32:24 AM
European markets trimmed their gains after the U.S. markets opened, with the FTSE trimming its gains to .32%, the CAC 40 trimming its gains to .17%, and the DAX cutting back drastically, to a gain of .13%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  10:29:28 AM
The US Dollar Index is below 99.90, and HUI and XAU are leaving contrails, +5.2 and +3.11 respectively. QQQ is at 25.20, and COMPX is currently holding at 1367, having failed at the 1377 level. The .48 put to call ratio showed a near consensus of a rally to come, and I'm very curious to see what happens in a few minutes with the next reading. QQV is still down .29 on the day, though FVX has dropped some its gains as buying returned to treasuries, currently up 2.3 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  10:27:06 AM
AT&T (T) $19.96 -21% ... Trade at $21 generates double-bottom sell signal Link.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  10:26:48 AM
One reason for weakness in the 30-year is technical, due to resistance at the 112 area. The other is based off seasonality expectations of the Claims number released this morning. Note: The last 6 weeks have shown volatility averaging to a 35K weekly move in Initial Claims. The actual number came in at 381k, but the 'whisper' number appeared to be closer to 400k than the reported 383k consensus estimates. Getting back to the technical picture, support is seen down to 111 (current prices at 111'13 and high at 111'31).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  10:20:30 AM
Depending on how you draw the line and how thickly you draw it, the Russell 2000 might already have broken through the neckline of its H&S formation and today might be (so far unsuccessfully) retesting that neckline. If the neckline shown on the linked chart is valid and if the retest of that neckline continues to be unsuccessful, it would be unlikely that the broader markets could make a sustained move higher, as they would not have the participation of the small caps. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  10:16:23 AM
Caterpillar (CAT) $43.12 -2.99% ... Link per Index Trader Wrap, stock trades $44, which is "sell signal" and this weighs on trying to buy any OEX/SPX pullback. This sell signal also takes 1 net stock away from Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) Link and should have it falling to 50%. One more net loss to sell signal and Dow bullish % is "bear confirmed."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  10:14:47 AM
The OEX looks to be testing the lower end of this morning’s gap up. A move below that gap and especially below yesterday’s lows would be bearish, of course, but a successful test and move back above the top of the gap at 447 might lead to another attempt at a bounce.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  10:13:30 AM
Swing Trade Signals
After falling beneath our opening range, indications would be that we finish toward the lows of the day. It's obviously a little early to tell if that will be the case, but fitted 5 min retracement level of 38.2 % at 8264 coincides closely with S1 at 8269. Watch these levels for support, now that we have broken 8300 in the Dow and 880 in the SPX. Traders in short at 8600 may want to lower stops again to just above today's pivot at 8357.

Current levels: Dow 8287/SPX 879.98/OEX 446.82/COMP 1372

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  10:09:06 AM
Put to call ratio of .48. Very low. Very bearish.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  10:08:29 AM
Another "open TEST drive" pattern? Possibly. The Dow opened higher and then a few minutes later "tested" levels just above the pivot before reversing to 'drive' lower. The next level of support comes in at 8269 (S1). Note: The low on December 31st comes in at 8242.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  10:07:48 AM
Telephone Data Systems (TDS) $44.00 -1.56%... from previous bearish profile from $49.00. Stock turns defensive on T action (see 09:55:07) and trade at $44.00 has TDS p/f chart back in column of "O." As such, traders short/put can snug down profit stops just above $48.00 Link

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in TDS

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  10:06:50 AM
Precious metals are up again, as the lunatic fringe builds up yet more profits. HUI +3.77 to 149.37, nearing upper resistance, and XAU +2.01 to 79.70, ditto. "Look at that S-Car go!"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  10:05:00 AM
The fed has just announced a 7.5B overnight repo. The market started hitting lows immediately upon the announcement. That's a drain of 15.25B.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  10:03:02 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The LEI numbers came in slightly above expectations and we are seeing a small bounce on the data. However, we remain close to unchanged in the Dow and we aren't seeing much change from earlier readings in the other major averages. As I type, we are beginning to fade and should test the Dow 8300 level as support.

Current levels Dow 8298/SPX 881.66/OEX 447.48/COMP1376

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  10:01:11 AM
Yesterday’s daily candle on the Dow Jones Transports was a big red candle that spanned more than 60 points. Candlestick theory holds that the midpoints of these larger-than-normal candles sometimes provide resistance (or support, in the case of a big white candle) to further movement. The midpoint of that candle is at 2244. So far, that resistance has held, as the Transportation Index moved up to 2236.56 before pulling back a little, but if sentiment carries the broader markets up, I’d expect the transports to be carried up with them. Even if the index can move above that midpoint level, it faces resistance from yesterday’s gap down, resistance formed from the ascending trendline it broke through at the 2230 area, and the grouped simple 22- and 50-dma’s near 2233. I would expect one of those levels to cap movement up in the transports.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  9:55:38 AM
Sure enough, the COMPX low was 1376 and price is now chopping around in the middle of the s/r zone. The TRINQ is very low at .20. Flip a coin for the moment- no clear direction. Celphones are not the entire tech market, and how many semiconductors are really going to be needed to be used to pack high res color screens and cameras into celphones? For the moment, the COMPX loves the news. How far it will take us is the question.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  9:55:07 AM
AT&T (T) $21.06 -17% .... Stock hit lower after reporting Q4 loss of $0.79, whish was worse than consensus of $0.40. Company said revs fell 8.6% year-over-year to $9.29 billion versus consensus of $9.17 billion. Analysts had included DSL impairment and employee reduction charges of approximately $0.20 per share. Although the company said in its earnings that the stated loss of $0.79 included DSL and employee charges, it isn't clear whether analysts anticipated the charges to be larger than expected as top-line revenue estimates were close to consensus. Link

T is a Dow component and main reason why Dow Indu (INDU) 8,323 +0.05% dipped into rede minutes ago. North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) 464.47 -2.1% lower on T's price action and sector loser in otherwise broader sector bullishness.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  9:49:47 AM
I was hoping someone would ask:

Yesterday you commented " gold can be played via options on either the XAU, or a good unhedged miner such as GG."

Is there a way to find out which Gold stocks are on companies that do not hedge ??

You can always get a list of HUI and XAU components and read all of their 10K filings. Or, you can find a list, such as I've found, that purports to list the hedge positions of a large basket of miners (Excel spreadsheet). Please note, however, that I canNOT attest to the veracity or the reliability of the attached table, and note further that it's several months out of date. However, it is useful for directing your search and narrowing the initial candidates for your research. Spend some time looking at the different sheets and tabs- this is a very powerful tool:

Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  9:49:40 AM
Current levels: Dow 8313/COMP 1377/SPX 882.68/OEX 447.94. As John mentioned the divergence with the Dow in the red and SPX in the green can be attributed to the drop in AT&T, which is a much larger percentage of the 30 Dow stocks than the 500 S&P stocks.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  9:47:13 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The opening jump faded quickly in the Dow, while the SPX is still holding some gains, but also off the highs. The Techs still look good, with the NDX and COMP up 1.5-2%. The fade is giving us no real direction at the moment on a longer term basis, but those traders still short may want to tighten stops above today's highs. Today's high in the Dow was 8380 and I'd think about using a conservative stop of 8385, or 8410 to protect some profits.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  9:45:04 AM
Note: AT&T is currently down 15.28% at 21.40, and responsible for that last red candle in the blue chips. In the 4Q of 2002, AT&T earned 66 cents per share on revenue of $9.3 billion. The consensus estimate of was for earnings of 71 cents per share. Including $1.5 billion in previously announced charges, including a $1.1 billion write-off on a failed investment in a Latin American subsidiary and severance for laid-off workers, AT&T's ongoing operations lost $611 million, or 79 cents per share. The company also said that it will stop giving quarterly and annual earnings guidance; however, AT&T will give more detailed operating results that can be used for long-term performace tracking.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  9:40:25 AM
1382 COMPX fell very quickly. We shall now see if that confluence zone functions as support after the opening pop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  9:39:34 AM
A study of the five-minute OEX chart shows that the OEX spent a lot of time gyrating around the 449.50 area yesterday. That area seemed pivotal (not as in the calculated pivots, however) yesterday, and might be an important level to watch today. With the OEX just having bumped above that level, it doesn't appear to be serving as resistance now, but watch for closes above this level on any pullbacks.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  9:37:32 AM
With the first five-minutes behind us, the range in the Dow for this period was from 8377 to 8320; propelling the blue-chips above their pivot of 8357. Short-term bears will most likely wait until 50% of this range is cleared, which comes in at 8348 (also would be back under the pivot).

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/23/03,  9:32:29 AM
Intra-day Pivot/Levels for Thursday (01/23/02)...

INDU : S2= 8219, S1= 8269, P= 8357 , R1= 8407 , R2= 8495

SPX : S2= 870, S1= 874, P= 882, R1= 886, R2= 894

OEX : S2= 441, S1= 443, P= 448 , R1= 450, R2=454

NDX : S2= 989, S1=998 , P= 1012, R1=1021 , R2=1036

QQQ : S2= 24.46, S1= 24.70, P= 25.12 , R1= 25.36, R2= 25.78

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  9:32:14 AM
18 point gap up open on the COMPX, right to 1377, the beginning of the 1377-1382 confluence zone. TRINQ .16. Doesn't go much lower than that. And QQV down .35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  9:30:03 AM
Caterpillar (CAT) $44.45 ... reports Q4 results that handily beat Wall Street forecasts but was cautious about the outlook for 2003, due to continued uncertainty in the political and weakness in capital spending. Profits for the quarter ending December were $305 million, or $0.88 a share, up from $0.48 a share in the year-earlier period. Revenue rose 5.5% to $5.38 billion. Analysts surveyed by Multex had been expecting earnings of $0.68 a share and revenue of $4.8 billion. For 2003, the builder of earth moving equipment expects revenue to be "about the same" as 2002, which totaled $20.15 billion. Analysts are currently expecting sales of $19.26 billion.Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/23/03,  9:25:23 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are cuurently flat in the official model, however, aggresive traders who took the suggestion to enter short at 8590-8600 will note that we hit our target at 8300 support yesterday. We are getting a boost this morning and I'd like to let the opening range shake out before deciding if this is a reversal from previously strong support at 8300, or simply an oversold bounce. We are due for a bounce at some point after losing over 500 Dow points in 5 days. The last time we were in this area I looked to play long, however, that was prior to what looks like the possible completion of a head and shoulders pattern.

There are a couple of options I am considering. Aggressive traders can play that bounce from the open and I may join them if I sense a reversal, but if the opening range fails, I may wait for a downside neckline break at Dow 8200.

The other option I am considering is going long at support in the 8250-8300 range, which is where we've bounced on numerous occasions, with a tight stop of 8175, just below that H&S neckline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/23/03,  9:24:58 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  9:11:42 AM
The fed has 7.25B in multiday repos, 14.5B in overnight repos, and 5B in 28 day repos expiring today. That makes...26.75B in fed money to be returned today. Adam Smith should be rolling over in his grave. Editorial commentary aside, the fed has just announced a 28 day repo for 4B, which drains 1B from the expiring 28 day repo. 4B down, 22.75B to go. I'll be watching for the announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  8:52:11 AM
European markets extended their gains this morning, with the FTSE 100 currently up .39%, the CAC 40 up .80%, and the DAX up 2.09%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  8:31:40 AM
The prospect of any kind of equity rally as the US Dollar Index sets new relative lows is simply not realistic. While domestic buying can provide a great measure of support for US equities, the impetus for foreigners to repatriated their money at the expense of US Dollars and the US stocks and bonds in which they're denominated cannot be ignored. The US Dollar Index is now down over 20 percent since January 2002. In many cases, foreigners would need to see a 20%+ gain in their US investments just to break even on the exchange. This has not prevent the bear market rallies we've seen over the past year, but it has prevented them from turning into the next bull market that the talkies at CNBC have been announcing at seemingly every major dip.

The bond market has just opened, with treasuries showing some selling and yields in the green, with FVX +4.4 bps, TNX +4.2 bps and TYX +2.4, confirming the jump we're seeing in equity futures.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/23/03,  8:06:44 AM
There's definitely a celebration in equities in premarket action, with QQQ currently trading at 25.38 from its close of 24.93. But, the US Dollar Index set a new 3 year low relative to the Euro, currently trading below 100 at 99.90. Gold is trading above 363/oz, with SPX futures at 883.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/23/03,  7:35:44 AM
Good morning! Most markets across Europe trade in the green as of this writing, led by gains in mobile phone and mobile-phone related companies such as Nokia, STMicroelectronics, and Siemens. While Nokia reportedly expects a challenging environment and mentioned slower-than-expected sales of expensive units, it expects industry-wide handset sales to rise about 10% this year. In 2002, industry-wide sales probably rose more than 5%. STMicroelectronics, a semiconductor company, attributed its tripling of Q4 profit in part to chips sold for use in mobile phones. While Nokia mentioned difficulties in selling expensive handsets such as picture phones, Germany’s Siemens thought they helped the company report losses in net income that were smaller than originally projected. Other European companies in the news were Novartis and Roche. Novartis raised its stake in Roche, seeking a merger that would form a company rivaling the world’s biggest pharmaceutical company, Pfizer. Perhaps also boosting European markets, at least in the U.K., is the news that holiday clearance sales boosted December retail sales in the U.K., a country that gains two-thirds of its gross domestic product from consumer spending. Despite the gains in many companies, however, oil-related companies suffered from rising crude-oil prices. The FTSE 100 maintained a .02% gain, the CAC 40 was up .11%, and the DAX climbed a more robust .73%. The DAX has suffered the biggest declines this week.

CNBC World television commentators focused this morning on the dollar’s fall to a three-year low against the euro. I’m sure Jonathan will discuss the implications in more detail, but television and print articles attributed the decline to Bush’s war talk yesterday.

In Asian trading, SK Telecom still suffered from Wednesday’s earnings report, but chip-related stocks such as Tokyo Electron and Advantest benefited from Texas Instruments’ sunny outlook. Taiwan Semiconductor also gained due to reports that it had gained preliminary approval to set up a plant in China. Exporters and banks remained under pressure, however, and the Bank of Japan stated that it doesn’t see clear signs for a recovery and doesn’t anticipate seeing them in the immediate future. Still, the Nikkei rose 2.09%, achieving a six-week high.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/22/03,  12:25:13 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has NOT been posted: (Steve was out of town Wednesday)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/22/03,  12:24:16 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/22/03,  12:24:04 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/22/03,  12:23:50 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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