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  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  6:50:17 PM
Pivot analysis Matrix for tomorrow. Link

Will note that all but NDX and QQQ closed below this WEEK's S1. After tomorrow's close, I will update both the weekly (this weeks high, low and close) for next week's levels, and also update the MONTHLY.

For January expiration, we made note that the SPX finished its expiration right at this month's PIVOT with a 01/17/03 close of 901.78. I haven't had the time at this point and go back and test other monthly analysis to see if indexes have habit of seeking out its pivot.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  6:28:26 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $50.94 -0.91% Link .... stock just couldn't buck the market trend today. However, quick check of Neurobiological Tech (NTII) $7.42 +4.65% Link , which is FRX partner along with Germany-based Merz that has exclusive rights for Memantine, of which FRX will be marketer for Alzheimer drug in U.S. traded strong today and matched its 52-week high if $8.00 intra-day.

As mentioned before, NTII is "like stock" to FRX to monitor as it relates to the Memantine drug and MARKET's perception of how things are going.

Thinking here is that FRX is component of S&P 500, while NTII is not and NTII may not be as "heavily" influenced by market direction.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  5:42:11 PM
If the headquarters of the American Bar Association was contaminated, does that mean we get a relief rally?

Sorry, couldn't resist the lawyer joke (disclosure: I practiced law for several years before becoming a trader)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  4:52:44 PM
The headquarters of the Treasury Department and the American Bar Association have apparently been evacuated, CNBC is saying, due to a hazardous material.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  4:22:49 PM
Candlestick fans might note the bearish engulfing patterns seen on the indices. This isn't a promise of lower prices tomorrow, but certain confirms the bearishness.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  3:53:18 PM
Like your insight. Speaking of which - do you think we are at Support or resistance, and more importantly are you bearish for the near term Thanks for being there.

Hi Paul. There's no question that we're at support right now, and the support levels we violated today will be resistance on any future bounces. I'd look to the week low of 1319 or so to provide the next firm support, and we'll see how it goes from there.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   1/30/03,  3:53:14 PM
Covered-Call Portfolio
Luminex (NASDAQ:LMNX) is another covered-call position (long the stock, short the FEB-$5 calls, cost basis ~ $4.56), that has given back most of an earlier January rally. The FEB-$5 calls ($0.00 x $0.25) could be bought back on the current weakness to free up the stock for an exit or adjustment on strength. On the positive side though, the technicals remain bullish and the trend-line from the December low hasn't been violated. Earnings are due next week on February 3rd.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  3:51:44 PM
The descending trendline on the 60 minute COMPX candles held yesterday and today, and the reasserted its strength with a lower low on that timeframe. Depending on how long the price remains in this current level, 1340-50 should provide resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  3:51:13 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  3:49:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm not going to enter a trade with 9 min left in the day, but I'm hoping for a morning bounce for a better short entry point now that we took out Monday's lows.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   1/30/03,  3:48:58 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Portfolio Activity

With only 15 minutes left in the session, the carnage continues to pile up as investors flee for the exits ahead of the impending showdown with Iraq. Stocks in almost every major group are enduring renewed selling pressure and today's report that the U.S. economy grew at a slightly weaker-than-expected 0.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter is not helping matters. Among the bullish plays in our portfolio, Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Accredo Health (NASDAQ:ACDO), Pacificare Health Systems (NASDAQ:PHSY) and Cephalon (NASDAQ:CEPH) warrant attention and may need adjustments if equity prices move lower in the coming sessions. In the bearish category, Harmon Electronics (NYSE:HAR) is the only issue on the "early exit" watch-list. Traders with "at-the-money" positions are cautioned to be very diligent in their portfolio management as the market will likely be volatile over the next few weeks.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  3:46:10 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Time to re-examine the stop losses. While my stop was set just a few points too low, those of you who used the alternative at Dow 8200 may want to think about lowering them here. my suggestions would be for the most conservative traders to set the stops just over 8000, or possible the entry at 7980. More aggressive traders can use 8060, which is just above intraday resistance. Those traders who want to give things some more room to bounce on news events can use a stop above yesterday's high of 8158. We set another lower low and I'm going to use a bounce to look for short entry. Right now we are sitting just above Monday's S2 at 7945 and if we are going to get a bounce, this could be the point again.

Current levels: Dow 7948/SPX 844.85/OEX 427.05/COMP 1324.

I would feel more comfortable with new entries if the COMP breaks below 1319.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  3:42:43 PM
It appears that the OEX regression channel Mark and I had been following was a bear flag pattern. Remember that I've been mentioning that if it were a bear flag pattern, it should break down about halfway up the prior movement. I'd marked that halfway point in a green line, the same green line that's been on the chart for several days now. Note that prices hit that level late yesterday afternoon and then began breaking down, falling through the bear flag pattern. I'm particularly attuned to bear flag patterns because they fooled me more than once in my early trading career--a big fall, then higher highs and higher lows. Got to be bullish, right? Not necessarily, as this week shows. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  3:36:51 PM
The put to call ratio sunk to .79 this past half hour, while the TRINQ remains steady at 2.11 and the TICK.NQ at -725. Not a typo, that last. Looks like today's action has discouraged a lot of Nasdaq bulls.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  3:30:55 PM
On the economic docket for Friday, December Personal Income and Spending is expected to be released at 8:30 a.m. January Michigan Sentiment (revised) is due out at 9:45, and the Chicago PMI is due out at 10:00. Economists expect the PMI number to rise from 51.3 to 53, and the sentiment report should fall slightly from 83.7 to 83.5. Personal Income is expected to remain the same (0.3%), and Personal Spending should rise from 0.5% to 0.7%. I will personally put the most weight in the Chicago PMI report, since it could put light on Monday's ISM Index report.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  3:26:03 PM
The OEX now tests yesterday's low at 427.89.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  3:24:01 PM
The US Dollar Index is getting sold again, now just above 99.40.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  3:18:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We got those breakdowns below 8000/850/430 and I'll be looking at yesterday morning's support levels for confirmation that yesterday's bounce was just an oversold relief rally following the President's speech/FOMC/Iraqi response.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/30/03,  3:17:52 PM
PNRA $29.03 (-2.73) After gapping lower this morning, shares of PNRA attempted to stage a midday rebound, which has now been thoroughly squashed. Trading new lows for the day here and bears seem intent on targeting $28, possibly by the end of the week. Conservative traders should now have stops trailed to $30.50, just above today's intraday resistance level.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  3:17:11 PM
I am currently running some Monthly pivots for February, since January is almost done and I am sure some traders are trying to get ahead of the curve. Just something to think about. I haven't come up with any great conclusions, as of yet. Maybe it means this market will move significantly tomorrow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  3:16:39 PM
The COMPX is approaching 1328, with the TRINQ a bit higher at 2.09. We've seen this thing above 5 before, to give our recent subscribers some idea of how the indicator can look when the buyers decide to take a break. TICK.NQ still very low at -538. FVX closed at its low of the day -3.1 bps. HUI and XAU are continuing to climb, albeit slowly.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   1/30/03,  3:14:26 PM
Covered-Call Portfolio
A few of the positions in the covered-call portfolio are under a bit of pressure: Globespan-Virata (NASDAQ:GSPN) has rallied back above its 150-dma in anticipation of the company's earnings release tonight and traders who bought back their calls on Monday's weakness now must decide whether to exit (with a small profit) or roll forward to lower their cost basis; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN) is moving lower today on a increasing volume -- a worrisome sign, and will probably test support around $18; Cubist Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:CBST) has reversed last week's rally and is once again testing support around $7; lastly, the hedge position Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI) was under a bit of pressure earlier in the week and has moved to the bottom of its support area -- not a good sign, but should benefit if the Market resumes is decline and Gold strengthens.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  3:08:31 PM
Oh WEL $0.40 +5.26% ... mentioned this HIGH RISK, HIGH POTENTIAL REWARD play earlier this week. I had placed an order yesterday to pick up a small positions at $0.32, which was just above today's S2 of $0.31 and this WEEK's pivot of $0.32, which might be a "correlative" support level. Stock traded low of $0.28 and making a bit of a reversal move higher here.

I say "oh wel" because I evidently placed a "day" order yesterday and didn't get a fill. I want some action here, with small position at $0.40. Again... speculative capital here, and treat like an option that can go "poof."

As mentioned before, one of few publicly traded companies that puts out oil/gas well fires.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  3:07:16 PM
Currently at 274.76, the SOX has surpassed Monday's low of 275.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  2:56:39 PM
Just over a billion shares have traded on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, with volume patterns confirming the bearish overall tenor of the markets today. Adv/dec ratios are .59 for the NYSE-traded issues and .48 for the Nasdaq-traded issues. Down volume is just over three times up volume on the NYSE and 3.7 times up volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  2:46:39 PM
On a five-minute chart, the next objective is for a move to 7984 and S1. I am going to keep my bearis outlook until the pivot is taken out to the upside. I am currently doing some retracements on monthly (back to 1990), weekly, and daily on the SPX contract. It does not look good. This is the current "big picture." Least resistance: Lower. Let us hope I am not forced to change my mind in the near term.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  2:40:50 PM
The latest put to call ratio was .83, QQV is up bit to 38.90, +.63. FVX is finally dropping, down 2.2 bps, while the TRINQ is finally climbing, 1.99 now, higher but still moderate. The TICK.NQ is -479, pretty unequivocal there. HUI is also near its highs of the day, +1.58, XAU +.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  2:35:12 PM
New lows down to 1333 COMPX, TRINQ 1.99, TICK.NQ -539. For those interested in the further details at my disposal as to the interior details of the Federal Reserve Building (or at least a laugh), here's a shot of Al Green's control chair (as I imagine it, anyway): Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  2:34:51 PM
Bearish traders in the OEX now want to see the OEX move below Monday's low at 427.03. Before that level can be hit, the OEX must move below yesterday's low of 427.89.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  2:32:31 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Setting new intraday lows here, let's watch for a break below Dow 8000/SPX 950/OEX 430, all of which will be very bearish. Current levels: Dow 8010/OEX 430.27/SPX 850.97/COMP 1335

Am I ready to jump out a window for getting barely stopped out on the short yesterday? Well I live in the second floor, so maybe.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  2:31:29 PM
QQQ $25.75 -1.63% ... making way below 61.8% retracement from WEEKLY and has closed on 5-minute basis here. Defensive action here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  2:25:28 PM
American Elec. Power (AEP) $23.52 -2.2% ... stock trades a session low here and from past bearish profile above $26.00, I like today's break lower from two-day consolidation after company's recent earning's release and statments about "reassessing its dividend policy."

It was the Business Week article and "professional shorts" thinking that AEP might be experiencing a "cash crunch" that had us looking at the stock's p/f chart and seeing some bearishness for good short/put opportunity and stock looks vulnerable here. I hold the August $25 puts, to give a slower-moving stock time to work and covers a couple of quarters to see what happens to the dividend.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  2:24:46 PM
While we ponder whether that second flag atop the Marriner S. Eccles building is actually Al Green's trowsers hoisted perhaps by the rookie governor Bernanke, the COMPX has broken below the previous day low of 1339, implying a retest of 1328-33 support.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  2:22:23 PM
I am tapping on the monitor, but I am not sure if the prices are moving (grin). Yes, the Dow is underneath its pivot of8071 and I would like to see a move to 8020 and the next retracement lower; however, that move might be asking too much. Other indices are almost ontop of their pivot, so things are slow. Checking the events calendar, President Bush hosts Tony Blair tomorrow at Camp David, and Hong Kong is closed for the Chinese New Year.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  2:17:40 PM
Another rate cut is not precluded?! My memory will never win awards, but I seem to recall Al Green specifically saying that no further rate cuts would be forthcoming, after he cut the big one for 50 bps. I'm surprised not to be seeing more buying in gold and the miners, with HUI + 1.03 and XAU +.42. This position was doubtless revised amid the bleating cacophony of the liquidity alarms and rotating steelmeshed yellow emergency bulbs in the lead and concrete bowels of the Fed building. Link

 
 
  Kent Barton   1/30/03,  2:10:51 PM
A scan through the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 turned up the following short candidates: CEPH, MXIM, C, MER, JNJ, BMY, and CL. Aggressive traders who don't mind playing a lower-dollar stock could also take a look at DAL and IMCL; both of which have broken below psychological support at $10.00.

There aren't a whole lot of bullish charts. Some long possibilities include BRL (trying to break above resistance at $80.00) LTR (pulled back to support), and BR (breaking to new relative highs).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  2:06:41 PM
CNBC just noted the release of the minutes on the FOMC meeting, saying that the Feds mentioned concerns about disinflation and said another rate cut is not precluded.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  2:04:01 PM
The TICK.NQ remains firmly in negative territory, -240, as the TRINQ reflects a neutral selling bias at 1.19. I snapped some fibonacci lines and fans onto my intraday chart, and QQQ 25 to 25.10 looked like a veritable traffic jam of resistance lines and intersections. Meanwhile, the COMPX continues to hold 1340. HUI and XAU are both still in the green, and it's turning into a quiet afternoon so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  2:03:57 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  2:02:15 PM
At 22.92 as I type, GE trades a dime below its July low of 23.02. This Dow bellwether has been treading water at this level for several days. Is this a consolidation pattern or a reversal pattern? If it's a consolidation pattern and the former direction resumes, that direction is down and will likely send GE to test October lows. That seems the most likely scenario at this point, as the price has been consolidating while the 5(3)3 daily stochastics try to cycle back up. Daily ADX is rising, showing increasing strength in the trend. Daily MACD and RSI have flattened and are difficult to interpret, except that I note that same (now broken) pattern of highs lows on the RSI and MACD that I had noted earlier in KO.

Still, I don't feel as confident in direction as I might usually be after making these observations. As Mark mentioned earlier, once some seemingly important support levels were broken this morning, I would have expected a swifter test of at least yesterday's lows. Unlike Mark, I tested the waters yesterday with a small OEX put position, and now I keep watching CSCO (because of its Nasdaq bellwether status), noting that it's been mounting yet another attack on its 14.23 200-ema this afternoon. If CSCO keeps failing at that effort, it will eventually fall along with other stocks, but while it's testing that level with some vigor, I'm aware that strong stocks haven't yet succumbed to selling pressure.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  1:53:33 PM
It is interesting that the Eurodollar pit with a December expiration is pricing in 50 basis points of tightening by the Fed. Even the September contract is giving about at 60% change of tightening. Does that mean the Fed will move at the September 16th meeting? I cannot imagine they will. As a side note: The Fed meets on: March 18th, May 6th, June 24-25th, August 12th, September 16th, October 28th, and December 9th. Yes, there will be a quiz later.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  1:40:26 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We are starting to get the downside confirmation that was missing yesterday, with bonds in the green, oil higher and gold futures also higher. We are again approaching our lows of the day. I particularly like the move in the COMP below 1350 and the failed rebound below that level for bears.

Dow 8041/SPX 854.26/OEX 432.16/COMP 1340

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  1:34:24 PM
The bounce off 1340 has been very faint so far, and the indicators have remained neutrally bearish, with the TRINQ at 1.02 and TICK.NQ -480. With a 10 point range between near term support and resistance, I'm betting on the near term trend to prevail, which today and this week is down. That would make yesterday's and this morning's surge corrective. The put to call ratio has just come in at .84 again, near its day high, which could support a further bounce. For now, we watch with this 10 point range.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/30/03,  1:20:42 PM
Back from a couple hours where I couldn't seem to get updates on either my charts or the MM, I see that I haven't missed a whole lot. Markets have weakened somewhat, but I just don't see the downside followthrough. Perhaps a part of this relative strength (as compared to the recent declines) can be attributed to the daily Stochastics (5,3,3) turning up. My thinking is that bears aren't pressing the issue here due to the possibility that we could see a bit more upside between now and early next week. Market internals are solidly bearish with declining volume outpacing advancing volume by roughly 2:1 on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. When conditions are as mixed as they currently appear to be, my choice is to stand aside. That's precisely what I'm doing today, waiting for a better entry to the downside, as I still expect we could see the DOW challenge the 8200-8300 area before the daily Stochastics roll over again. Hey, I can hope, can't I?

 
 
  Kent Barton   1/30/03,  1:19:46 PM
VIX.X volatility index (35.38 +0.16): We've been using a retracement bracket on the VIX, anchored from the October highs to November lows. On Monday the index rallied up to and then rolled over from the 61% level, just below the long-term descending trend of lower highs. The past two days of broader market gains took the VIX back to the 38% retracement. This level previously offered solid resistance.

Bulls will be watching for the VIX to continue to decline below the 38% level. This would an indication that geo-political worries might be easing, despite President Bush's sustained hawkish rhetoric. A rebound, on the other hand, would be a sign that debilitating war concerns are creeping back into the market.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  1:14:55 PM
After a trader looks at those two charts below, I then turn to the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly pivot matrix and look for correlations. Daily S1 is at 24.52, while the Weekly S1 is at 24.36. Now I create a range, from 24.25 to 24.50. This area encompasses FOUR separate calculations. I definitely think it will be a more important area than most.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  1:10:51 PM
Here is the second chart in the QQQ's. Notice how well the Daily 50% retracement and weekly 19.1% area matches up. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  1:07:30 PM
Talking to Jeff about the QQQ's, and I have decided to show a few charts in order to give traders more confidence when choosing levels. Here is the first one: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  1:04:08 PM
The US Dollar Index did a swan dive around noon and is now recovering some, currently 99.65, telling me that the selling in equities had a solid foreign component to it. The 1340 level held on the COMPX, and price seems to be rising in what looks like an ascending wedge on the 5 minute chart, but it's far too early to tell. FVX is back above unchanged, +.8 bps, while the CBOE put to call ratio has just printed .84.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  12:53:34 PM
Swing Trade Signals
For those traders looking for confirmation of bullish/bearish sentiment, there is only one Dow stock up or down more than $1. That stock is IBM, which is down $1.08 to $79.20, after failing its 50-dma, which sits at $82.12.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  12:51:22 PM
Volume patterns have deteriorated slightly since mid-morning, with adv/dec ratios now standing at .63 for the NYSE and .54 for the Nasdaq. Down volume now measures 2.5 times up volume on the NYSE and 2.2 times up volume on the Nasdaq. New lows have begun to draw more strongly ahead of new highs again. Volume stands at 724 million shares on the NYSE and 750 million shares on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  12:45:32 PM
Bush and the Italian Prime Minister met with reporters, with the Prime Minister urging that all countries back the U.S. If all did so, Hussein would see that he had no choice but to disarm, the Prime Minister said. Italy is one of the eight countries signing a letter in support of the U.S., as mentioned in my first post this morning. This letter puts pressure on France and Germany, two countries whose governments do not yet believe the U.S. has made a convincing case against Hussein.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  12:36:19 PM
On both the S&P's, we've now had hourly closes below the bear flag patterns, although just barely. I remain bearish but cautious until Monday's lows are surpassed, as those lows might again be areas where these indices could bounce.

For those of you at work and not able to watch television, Bush is speaking. In this climate, his comments could be market-moving, so be careful.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  12:19:13 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The rollover is becoming more decisive and traders holding a short position with a stop at Dow 8200 can look to add to those positions if we get a move below the weekly S1's Jeff has posted, along with yesterday's lows. I'll also be watching those levels. If we do break through, then I'll look to enter short on a failed bounce. I would rather get an entry point on a failure just below 8200, but I'm beginning to believe that the spike up that stopped me out by 8 points yesterday was that failed bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  12:17:31 PM
More on that CSFB downgrade on GG- they're recommending PDG and AEM in its stead. AEM should be OK, but going by memory, PDG is one of the bigger hedgers, for what it's worth.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  12:15:43 PM
QQQ $24.88 -1.07% ... "Almost to plan".... here's how our 09:52:30 observation has been playing out. Interesting isn't it? Day trader probably closes out here if short near the rally of $25.38, then makes some observations. Perhaps looking for rally to $25.10? Link

Swing-trader short does nothing, but simply checks in from time to time to monitor his/her levels. Keeps stop just above yesterday's high, or even $25.84 with lower targets of $23.90. Again.... depends on your "style" of trade.

Now... when I say "day trade" I'm talking about the QQQ itself, not the options.

For those that are trying to day tradethe opions and scalp the various "levels" and movement in the QQQ, I would STRONGLY suggest that you be very patient with your trading. I would NOT try and trade buy the offer and sell the bid in the options. I would ONLY try and work the inside of options. Then.... if filled at your QQQ level, be willing to then place your sell order either at the OFFER or just "inside" the offer when the QQQ reaches a level.

Over time, as you trade the systematic approach, you will begin to get the feel for just how "greedy" you can be at the bid/offer of the options. Lets say you did buy a put in the QQQ $25 put when Q's were trading near $25.38 and at $24.81 you began sitting the offer in the option, but have yet to be filled. Either be patient, or cancel the order, then when QQQ trade back close to $24.81, place order 5-cents below the offer and see what happens.

As time passes, you will get better feel for how "aggressive" or "complacent" the options trader market is. This isn't much different that sensing "order flow."

You "know" there will be some "piker" option trader out there that is just trading to trade and can allow YOU to trade the inside of the market.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  12:14:21 PM
Currently, the NQ, ES, and YM contract are all under its pivot. I do expect lower prices from here, and a move in the Dow back above the 8075 area would nullify this possibility of a move in the Dow down towards the 7945 area.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  12:11:45 PM
Meanwhile, spot gold has jumped above 370/oz. HUI is +1.36 to 145.73, XAU + .67 to 78.17.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  12:11:19 PM
I'm now showing a downside break of that bear flag pattern on the OEX, as well as a move below the 21-period MA at 433.35. We saw some spikes below the regression channel that formed the bear flag yesterday, too, with the OEX consequently moving right back up into the channel, so I'll be watching for closes below this channel for confirmation. The next tests from a historical S/R standpoint are yesterday's low at 427.89 and Monday's low at 427.03. I note that there's a weekly S1 at 428, perhaps emphasizing the importance of this level. (There's also a daily S1 of 430 between current prices and the two lows I mentioned.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  12:10:36 PM
The COMPX has not come to rest at 1340 support. The TRINQ barely rose there, and is now at 1.3, TICK.NQ -330. The put to call ratio jumped to .86, most of the put side of which is made up of index put volume, and not equity. FVX has dipped lower, -1.5 bps on the day. Next support is just above 1330, and then come good ole 1328.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  12:05:48 PM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  11:48:42 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Transportation Index printed a doji on the daily chart, alongside the two previous days' side-by-side candles. Currently at 2158.65, this index again clings to last-ditch support before July lows of 2090.32.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  11:47:48 AM
Looking at the XAU Index (77.75), the monthly pivot comes in at 72.87, while S1 is 66.10, S2 at 55.43, R1 at 83.54, and R2 at 90.31. Daily Retracement analysis puts resistance at 80 and support at 71. One matches up with R1, and the other with the pivot. Going to a weekly chart, the pivot is at 79.84, and S2 comes in at 71.38. Therefore, I would look for strong support from 71 to 72.87. Resistance is seen from 79.84 to 83.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  11:44:37 AM
COMPX 1350 continues to do its thing, providing support on the last downleg. The lack of a significant bounce is not particularly bullish, but it's still early to tell. The 60 minute 10(5) stochastic, which gives fewer but more reliable signals, has given a bearish cross, but is currently sliding sideways as the price rests at support. The other indicators continue to show a COMPX that is being supported by heavier buying in fewer stocks, while the put to call ratio, which saw both the equity and index ratio go below 1, shows the options market betting on a bounce at support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  11:40:36 AM
CSCO battles its exponential 200-dma and the 14.00 price level again today. So far, it's lost its battle with the 200-ema at 14.23, but has won the battle with the 14.00 price level, currently trading at 14.09.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  11:35:52 AM
Someone asked about the NDX yesterday. Today it remains above its pivot, but I notice a bearish kiss on the hourly 21(3)3 stochastics this morning. Stochastics can redraw themselves, but if these continue to roll over and if price does, too, then the hourly charts are showing bearish divergence. Yesterday, the 21-period MA turned up on the 60-minute chart, however, and that MA hasn't shown any tendency to turn back down. On the daily chart, 5(3)3 stochastics still turn up, but MACD and RSI are flattening as price appears to have been stopped beneath the grouped MA's and other resistance. Taken all together, the evidence appears to slant to the bearish side to me, but I'm wary of the comparative strength in this index lately.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  11:34:14 AM
The CBOE put to call ratio has dropped to .73 during this past half hour.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  11:31:16 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Ratio of decliners to advancers on the Dow is now 21:9, with no stock in the average moving more than $1

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  11:21:52 AM
Volume patterns show more decliners than advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, with ratios of .83 and .63, respectively. Down volume measures 1.5 times up volume on the NYSE and is roughly equal on the Nasdaq. New lows outnumber new highs on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Currently 443 million shares have traded on the NYSE and 449 million have traded on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  11:19:49 AM
Bonds seem to have come to life today, currently higher by '15 ticks at 111'17; however, so far we do have a lower daily low and high over yesterday's session. A daily Bollinger Band has a mid-point at exactly today's low of 110'24. A 22 EMA comes in at 111'00. A move back above the 112'08 should be bullish for bonds and bearish for stocks, while a close underneath 110'24 might have traders looking to pull cash out of Treasuries and into more productive assets. Looking at the cash market, the five-year note is just under 3%, while the 10-year note is just over 4%. The 30-year is showing a yield of 4.89%. Both the 3 and 4% levels are psychologically significant.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  11:16:13 AM
The 5 minute chart shows the COMPX testing the 1350 s/r zone, currently 1348, where it struggled for awhile during yesterday's runup. The TRINQ is dead neutral at .98, TICK.NQ -501 showing wide selling, FVX still flat to negative down .4 bps. So far this s/r zone is holding. A break below will have bulls unhappy and eyeing the next support at the 1340 level.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  11:14:34 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Current levels: Dow 8077/SPX 858.36/OEX 434.23/COMP 1349

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  11:13:47 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We got yet another rollover with SPX/OEX dropping back below the pivot levels and the Dow holding jsut above. I still think shorts are safe below 8200 and I'm debating a short entry. One problem I see is the reaction we get every time someone important speaks about Iraq. That makes it much harder to predict 2-3 days worth of movement without knowing what will develop tomorrow or over the weekend.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/30/03,  11:10:53 AM
AZO $65.41 (+4.21)

since azo gapped up today & we were stopped out at a nice loss!!! should we just let this one to rest. could you give us point/figure guidance. for the group.

I've been talking bearish about this stock on several occasions over the past month, as the stock has been driven lower, posting a series of lower highs and lower lows. Following the big breakdown in december, the stock has continued to be presured by concerns about rising inventory levels and we recently saw the stock break the $60 level for the first time since late 2001. But things certainly took a bullish turn last night, with the company increasing their guidance for Q2, followed by a Lehman upgrade this morning. That had the stock gapping higher this morning and actually trading as high as $67.49, before the buyers ran out of momentum. After stabilizing a bit, AZO has fallen into the gap left behind this morning and has actually lost quite a bit of ground in the past 30 minutes, now challenging the $64 level. Note that when I began this note, the price was $65.41!

I don't know what the reader's cost basis is, but based on the price action in AZO, I still like bearish plays in the stock, with an eye towards filling today's gap. Look at the PnF chart, and you can see that even though the stock is now in a column of X's, it didn't come anywhere near generating a reversing Buy signal. Link The current vertical count from the recently completed column of O's is $44, so clearly there is some significant downside potential.

But it's all about managing risk. I don't know what the reader's cost basis or expiration is. If in near the recent lows, then today's move is unpleasant. But traders in the play from higher levels will note today's reversal comes right from the level of the failed rally ($66) of just over a week ago. With that umderstanding, if still holding open positions, it perhaps makes sense to set a stop just above $66.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  11:06:52 AM
Cognizant Tech (CTSH) $58.25 (+1.25) We lowered the stop on put play CTSH, picked at $60.14, which traded down to $55.68 earlier in the week, to lock in a gain for readers. The stop is now $57.50 on a closing basis, but the stock is trading above that level as of this time. Readers who set stops at $57.50 intraday should have been stopped out this morning, but we will be basing our stop on the closing price. If it holds these levels, we will drop the play tonight.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  11:02:07 AM
Yields have lost their bloom and are now negative on the day, with the five year yield (FVX) flat to down -.3 bps. XAU and HUI are now positive. Despite this, equities are still holding their range, with QQQ 25.18 and the TRINQ in neutral bullish territory at .88. TICK.NQ -310 shows broad selling. QQV is still negative, -.19 on the day at 38.08.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  10:58:23 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $51.97 +1.08% ... stock trading right at somewhat of a crisscrossing of trends here.Link

Would view as positive if stock can close above the $52.00 level by session's end and get back on the longer-term bullish trend I have drawn. I didn't think FRX would fill its gap to $50, but perhaps recent broader market weakness did have stock filling the area "void" of supply/demand. I like the rebound from the filling of its gap and monitor for resumption of longer-term trend and breaking of shorter-term trend.

As a p/f chartist, I somewhat see a bar chart-type of "bearish signal reversed" setup where the stock was distributed lower that past couple of weeks. While recent three-session reversal hasn't been "sharp" current action hints that demand might be starting to firm and look for supply to begin drying up ahead of FDA panel review of Alzheimers drug.

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in the FRX May $55 calls, targeting $75 by expiration, no stop on the options.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  10:54:11 AM
One more source for p/c ratios can be found at the CBOE site, which gives intraday volumes, but only on indices and totals for equity, not on individual stocks. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  10:51:49 AM
From CNN: Deaths reported in U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter crash near Bagram, Afghanistan

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  10:47:23 AM
KO: I'm not on the pick team, but I thought I'd weigh in on the KO question. I was impressed with the reader's conclusions and the factors the reader is watching. I've been following KO daily for several months now. During that time, I've noted that once KO hits a critical level, it tends to pop up and often to do it on strong volume. There are lots of long-term believers in KO, and many who quote Warren Buffet's (Buffett? I've found two spellings.) supposed statement that he would never sell Coca-Cola. That may change, however, as KO has moved to six-year lows. Long-time investors who pick up their newspapers this weekend and note those six-year lows might not be so inclined to hold those shares.

While it's true that the daily RSI is oversold, note also that it had previously been making a series of higher lows, and has broken those higher lows. The same is true of the MACD, and daily MACD is clearly bearish. Daily ADX is above 20, indicating that we might not be able to trust the empirical levels of those oscillators, but I still believe some credence should be given to the pattern breaks they're displaying. KO currently trades beneath a descending line that's been forming since July. That line currently crosses at about 43.40, although it should be noted that KO has an impish tendency to pop above that line a day or two and fool bears into selling and bulls into buying. Weekly stochastics have turned down from midrise and other weekly oscillators look bearish. The 10-week MA crossed below the 30-week some time ago and has not crossed back, indicating that the intermediate trend (down) has not yet changed for KO. In addition, the Dow Jones Non-Cyclicals ($DJUSNC) look fairly unhealthy from a P&F standpoint.

From past history, I actually think there's a fair chance that KO could bounce up somewhere between 42.50-43.40 while those daily stochastics cycle back up, but I'm not sure that past history is a fair predictor of what KO might do now, since KO hasn't been at these levels in the last six years. I think a close under 40 this week would probably preclude that bounce. These are all just suppositions, however, and readers should base their decisions on their own trading styles. KO can make some surprisingly sudden and swift moves up for such a stodgy old company, and those moves can be painful for bearish players.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  10:44:05 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We caught a bid the last few minuts and the Dow is currently struggling to hold a close above the opening range high. The close occured on the last 5 min bar and would indicate a shift in the bearish pattern. The SPX has not broken that level yet, which comes at 865.48, but it also has put together a series of higher lows in the last few minutes. Very difficult to predict from here.

Current levels: Dow 8128/SPX 863.76/OEX 437.06/COMP 1359

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  10:42:10 AM
Another Dow component, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), announced quarterly profits rose by more than 50 percent due to higher oil and gas prices. Oil prices has risen more than 40 percent from the previous year's quarter. XOM's fourth-quarter net income rose to $4.09 billion, or 60 cents a share, up 53 percent from the $2.68 billion, or 39 cents a share, the company reported in the year-ago quarter. There is a downside to the rise in oil prices. The company's refining and marketing and chemicals businesses uses crude oil as a key raw material. Shares of XOM are higher by 0.37 cents to 34.21. I think a move above 35.50 would be a nice rejection of the recent move lower (36.60 to 31.58). The 35.50 area should be the apex in past consolidation and most likely where bears will give up.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  10:39:10 AM
Expedia (EXPE) $60.93 (-2.01):I'd like to thank Jeff for commenting so thoroughly on bearish Watch List candidate EXPE, which has also continued to fall from its 200-dma. While the news about competition did not hit until this morning, something certainly looked fishy the last few days. The stock has continued to fall from a consistent down trend line capping each bounce since the beginning of January. The trend has been down since December, but the line I'm looking at began in early December and it traded below that line for most of that month. A breakdow below $60 could be devastating and put the stock in a vacuum down to $50, however, that trendline would also allow for a bounce back to the $62-$63 range.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  10:30:01 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I like the rollover from Dow 8100 and SPX 863 on that last bump and I'm thinking short entry point for aggressive traders. I think Jeff's earlier point about the way we've bounced from the weekly S2 is sound and shorts from here will have to contend with yesterday's lows (including strong support on the COMP)on any short play. I'm probably going to wait for those to be broken, especially given the fact that we are still in what I consider to be high-risk territory between now and Feb 5, but I'm not promising I won't jump back in. If we do get a positive (non-war) move in Iraq, we could still see a big run in the equities and traders should be protecting positions that way. I keep thinking back to Powell's statements yesterday about assisting in placing Hussein in exile as an alternative to war. While Saddam is talking tough, I really cannot imagine that he believes he will remain in power and it seems we have given a viable alternative. (As I typed the Dow broke back above 8100)

Current levels: Dow 8109/SPX 862.94/OEX 436.49/COMP 1358

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  10:26:49 AM
Those daily pivots are certainly playing a part in today's trading on the S&P's. Alerts keep sounding as the S&P's pass those pivots going first one direction and then the other. Those levels also correspond with breaks in chart formations or historical support. I note that the NDX daily pivot alert that I set hasn't once sounded.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  10:25:40 AM
Jonathan, where do you find the real time on "dx00y"

In fact, I don't- the symbol is indeed trading delayed again. For realtime, you should refer to the chart I've posted below. Glad I'm not a forex trader, with quote.com changing the feed from hour to hour.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  10:25:05 AM
There was a revised seasonal adjustments to the December ISM index. The overall index was revised half a point higher to 55.2 as new orders fell slightly to 62.9 (relatively high). Employment was revised higher to 48.2.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  10:21:05 AM
Steven, KO is showing some strength for an OIN PUT candidate. Here's why I think so; Volume is almost twice the 60 DMA average STO is buried in oversold and the signal line appears ready to cross over RSI is also slightly oversold Price action has exceeded the lower Bollinger band KO historically rebounds from the lower $40s KO quarterly earnings policy is something other stocks will embrace; KO is just the first one out of the chute KO's put/call open interest ratio for the May 40 strike is 11.5 to 1 - very bullish from a contrarian view. While I am not yet inclined to put on a CALL position, I feel it is almost time. Does OIN still stand by its PUT recommendation on KO? Is my analysis missing something? Thanks in advance for your comments! Mark

Coca-Cola (KO) $40.03 (-0.52)Thanks for the question Mark. So far, KO has not only underperformed the market, but seen a series of down days, rescued only by yesterday's intraday 200-point Dow swing to the upside. Even, then it added to its 6-year lows. While it has traditionally rebounded from the "low 40s," it has not traded this low since 1996 and former bounce points have failed it on this breakdown. We continue to add boxes to the PnF chart in the "O" column and the stock is once again testing $40.00 to the downside. So far, I have seen no signs of strength, even on broad marekt bounces.

All of your points are good points, and traders who feel uncomfortable with a particular play should probably shy away, rather than blindly follow any analyst recommendation that they disagree with (even from us analysts at OI). I do stand by the play at this point, but one other thing that traders need to consider is that we are an end of day newsletter and our stops are set up that way. Mark Phillips and I try to comment on plays throughout the day but in the end it is the trader who takes the responsibility for managing his own trades. I do appreciate input (including criticism) on plays, since many traders can have different views and sometimes we don't see the other side. Thanks for the note.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  10:19:33 AM
Although spot gold is trading above the 368 level now, HUI and XAU are both lightly negative. There's news of a downgrade of Goldcorp to underperform from neutral by CSFB. As many of you know, I tend to view upgrades and downgrades rather cynically. Take, for example, Dan Niles' perfectly timed promotion of INTC up around 21 a few months back, marking the exact, precise swing top on that stock almost to the hour. Perhaps CSFB is having trouble finding sellers? Nevertheless, GG is currently down .18 or 1.45%. That looks to be the reason.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  10:16:08 AM
As a note: The Dow hit its pivot, but the NQ or ES futures contracts did not. The YM contract only fell under its pivot by one point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  10:15:54 AM
Buy Program again at S&P premium level of $0.16. This time with SPX at 863.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/30/03,  10:14:46 AM
PNRA $30.20 (-1.56) Now that's more like it! I was actually getting a bit concerned with PNRA after yesterday's rise to test the 200-dma just above $32. Fortunately, the bears got some fresh ammunition after the close last night, with the company announcing that its CFO would be leaving the company as of March 31st, citing a desire to spend more time with his family. Regardless of the reasons behind the move, investors don't seem to like it, with the stock off 5% right now, and that is after recovering from a low of $29.40. While conservative traders can certainly take partial gains on today's weakness, we're hanging tough with the play, as today's break under $30, now has un eying the $28 level as very likely over the near-term. Just in case we're wrong though, we're tightening our stop to $32.25, just above yesterday's intraday high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  10:13:47 AM
Expedia (EXPE) $60.50 -3.62% ... session low here. Evidently not on "the list" for buy weighted program? (grin).

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  10:09:44 AM
Could you please send me the source of put/call ratios for individual stocks and indices? Thank you. Igor

The Options Clearing Corporation, which clears all option trades, keeps data on what is traded at which exchange and the ratios. It is not intraday data, only on a closing basis, but you can look at daily/monthly/quarterly/yearly. You can get started with this link Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  10:08:41 AM
Buy Program Premium Alert was received just about a minute ago. Quick check shows program triggered near Dow Indu 8,050 and not too far off from the DAILY pivot of 8,071, but also from SPX daily pivot of 860, with SPX session low of 857.71.

On daily basis, will take note, "understand" this is a level that is being monitored today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  10:04:57 AM
The opening put to call ratio has come in at .78 for the first half hour of trading.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  10:03:23 AM
Swing Trade Signals
As I sent my last entry, we broke down below the pivots. I am still a little frustrated over getting stopped out on the short at Dow 8150 (spike up to 8158) yesterday, but those traders who took my advice to use a stop at 8200 are looking good this morning.

Current levels: Dow 8052/OEX 433.76/SPX 857.83/COMP 1350

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  10:00:39 AM
Here's what's happening with the OEX this morning regarding that possible bear flag formation I've been following. Note the bearish kiss on the 21(3)3 stochastics. Note also that yesterday, the OEX moved briefly out of this regression channel that defines the possible bear flag twice--once in each direction--so a brief move either direction should not be considered confirmation of a break of the bear flag pattern. I note that today's OEX 435 pivot and the bottom channel line are roughly congruous at the current time, lending extra importance to this level. The green horizontal line near 440 is the area at which I judge that the bear flag formation should break down if it is indeed a bear flag. I do note that 443 is R1 for the day and also an area of historical resistance, so perhaps some leeway should be given on that 440 number. Note that the SPX also trades in a similar channel. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  9:59:40 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Expanding on Jeff's/John's pivot analysis, we got bounces off those pivots in the Dow and SPX, without a five min close beneath. those pivots also correspond closely to 19.1/38.2 retracement levels.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  9:59:15 AM
Expedia (EXPE) $61.20 -2.76% .... Note this morning's early low of $60.74. Why is this? Never sure, but my WEEKLY pivot analysis levels for this stock based on last WEEK's range has S2=60.74, S1=62.25, P=64.27, R1=65.78, R2=67.80.

If I were a market maker in EXPE, then perhaps being short allows me to make a market in the stock at a bid level of $60.74, get a little order flow commission, make a little money from the price decline, and looking to sell some offer, get a little short at S1 of $62.25, or even today's S2 of $61.03 and simply look to trade the levels and measure order flow.

While you and I can't get as good a feel for order flow as a market maker can, we can trade the levels. As a bear in EXPE, I'd like to see $60.74 taken out to the downside, but perhaps "understand" why the stock has "stopped" at that level this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:58:35 AM
The fed has announced an overnight repo in the amount of $4B, which refunds the expiring 1.5B and leaves an additional 2.5B on the table.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  9:57:15 AM
Dow component Boeing (BA) Boeing Co. recently reported earnings of $590 million for the fourth quarter. The company's Defense business apparently offset lower revenues from its commercial airplane division. BA did caution that 2003 revenues will continue to decline sharply as the aviation slump continues, and it forecast full-year earnings that are expected to be at or below the low end of Wall Street's expectations. Note: The company's earnings did match consensus estimates at 73 cents a share (71 cents excluding non-recurring items and an accounting charge). Revenue was $13.7 billion, down from $15.7 billion in for fourth quarter of 2001.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  9:52:30 AM
QQQ $25.06 -0.31% ... per last night's Index Trader Wrap. Will note here, that based on WEEKLY retracement as discussed in last night's wrap, QQQ has seen a 5-minute bar close BELOW the WEEKLY pivot of $25.10. Swing Trader bear might look to take partial position here, using the 38.2% retracement of $25.38 as near-term resistance, and placing stop just above yesterday's high. More patient bear will monitor QQQ for rally, look for Oscillators allignment and look for higher short entry back near the $25.38 level, with thought that this is stronger of indexes right now. It's kind of my thinking that there were market makers, if not other shorts from recent sessions below the $25.00 level that are buyers this morning just above $25.00. This thought is derived from past retracement discussed that we set up months ago regarding how a market maker might be trading those levels, with $25.00 at the 50% retracement level and 38.2% retracement above at $26.18.

All that matters to YOU the trader, is to trade the levels YOU deem more appropriate for your trading style.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:52:27 AM
COMPX 1360 is a formidable resistance zone on my charts, though 1377-80 is very strong as well. The benefit of watching the price all day is that certain numbers stick in your mind. 1377-80 brings back memories from months ago. Can the COMPX break through? There's light selling in bonds, FVX +3.9 bps, mild selling in equities TRINQ 1.36 and TICK.NQ -183. Yesterday buried all of the intraday stochastics into overbought. Bulls will need a pullback and a higher low before those resistance levels get busted, in my opinion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  9:50:24 AM
European markets remained steady after our opening.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  9:44:22 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We have rolled over through the bottom of the opening range and so far the break back below Dow 8100/SPX 863 looks bearish for the day.

Current levels: Dow 8090/SPX 861.00/OEX 435.60/ COMP 1351/QQQ 25.13

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:42:11 AM
And, quote.com is now reporting the dx00y quotes as realtime, and no longer "30 minute delayed". No need for the realtime chart I've just posted.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:41:21 AM
TD Waterhouse is reporting on my quote screen "QQQ: Symbol halted". Gotta love it. Nevertheless, I have 25.06 according to Scottrade's realtime feed, at a low of the day.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  9:39:31 AM
During the first five-minutes of trading, the Dow had a relatively tight range from 8104 to 8130. We are above the pivot, so the bias should be neutral to slightly higher. We are seeing good selling in the five-year pit, and a bid in the US Dollar back towards the 100 level. For bears, look for an "open TEST drive" pattern, especially if the Dow falls back under the day's pivot.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:38:44 AM
I've come to see that fundamentals are driving the US Dollar and the markets are following its lead.

Can you please give us some thoughts on support/resistance levels for the dollar? Especially in the context of using it as an indicator of whether we ARE just seeing shortcovering/oversold bounce vs. breakout/trend change.

Also, the only symbol i can find for the dollar is DX00y and the quotes are delayed too long. 30 min. on LiveCharts and Qcharts. Isnt there a "USD" quote format? help !!!! please.

You and I agree. The USD is a huge piece of the puzzle. Squinting at a monthly candle chart, the 105 then 107 levels look like resistance, and 99, then 95 look like support. These are long term levels, because short term, below 100, we're in what I like to refer to as the "airball" zone. dx00y is the symbol I use, and until recently, it was realtime. I have no idea why quote.com would delay it, but it's delayed on my screen as well. Never fear: this free chart is realtime: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  9:34:08 AM
Swing Trade Signals
So much for the move higher to start the day, we are close to unchanged across the board. Should make for some tight levels on the 5 min fitted retracement.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:32:14 AM
Flat open on the COMPX at 1360, TRINQ .87, QQV -.35 at 37.92, QQQ 25.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  9:30:45 AM
Expedia (EXPE) and Hotels.com (ROOM) mentioned ROOM Link as bearish last week, and EXPE Link yesterday. Both stocks ticking lower this morning in pre-market trade after Wall Street Journal reports that some of the U.S.'s largest hotel chains are about to roll out an web site that will offer discount hotel rooms. The site is expected to be called Travelweb.com and controlled by MAR, HOT, HLT, SXC and Hyatt.

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish positions in ROOM and EXPE

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  9:30:34 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/30/03,  9:28:53 AM
Intra-day Pivot/Levels for Thursday (01/30/02)...

INDU : S2= 7858, S1= 7984, P= 8071 , R1= 8197 , R2= 8284

SPX : S2= 837, S1= 851, P= 860, R1= 873, R2= 883

OEX : S2= 423, S1= 430, P= 435 , R1= 443, R2=447

NDX : S2= 965, S1=991 , P= 1007, R1=1033 , R2=1049

QQQ : S2= 23.87, S1= 24.52, P= 24.98 , R1= 25.63, R2= 26.09

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/30/03,  9:27:06 AM
Intl. Paper (IP) $36.08 ... Dow component reports Q4 earnings of $0.33 per share (excluding items), which was 6-cents better than estimates. Revenues were flat when compared to year-ago levels at $6.3 billion. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/30/03,  9:24:36 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currently flat and with the move higher to start the morning, I'll be watching levels in the Dow 8200-8400/SPX 880-900 range for signs of resistance. Those areas had previously provided an awful lot of support, which has recently failed. I still believe we are seeing an oversold bounce, but I'm no going to get in its way. I also do not want to jump in long with all of the technical damage we have seen recently. Bullish percents are still in retreat mode, I think we've seen a head and shoulders breakdown in the Dow/SPX/OEX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:20:02 AM
Gold is seeing some buying, with spot gold now above 366/oz.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  9:11:11 AM
The fed has 1.5B in overnight repos expiring today, and 3B in 28 day repos. It has just renewed the 28 day repos with a fresh 3B, and so there has been no net addition or subtraction yet. We await the short term repo announcement to see what will be done with the remaining 1.5B.

Meanwhile, here's some interesting art I've come across. It's not a market recommendation or advice or anything of the sort. But, it is very pretty: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  9:04:00 AM
European markets mostly held steady after the GDP announcement, with the FTSE 100 now up 1.79%, the CAC 40 up 2.38%, and the DAX up .96%. Earlier the DAX had been barely positive, but had moved up as the day had progressed, ahead of our GDP announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  8:57:20 AM
I'm no expert on the intermarket relationships, but talk on CNBC World this morning was also that the dollar is seeing an oversold bounce only, and will soon resume its downward spiral. European commentators mentioned that it had bounced quite soundly down from resistance twice, affirming that it's only undergoing a corrective bounce. It's helpful and interesting sometimes to get a view of U.S. economic issues from the outside, and also to glimpse the likelihood that foreign money will again be invested in the U.S. The conclusion from this morning's commentators was that, as slow as U.S. growth might be, it's higher than growth in the euro zone.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  8:54:37 AM
Ya'll just don't get it, eh! "It wasn't as bad as it could have been" and therefore this is good. Grin! You just need to move down here and live in the swamp long enough to thaw out and then you begin to understand these finer points. Just kidding of course from a former ND'er (almost a Canadian) and now living in Cajun country. Keep up the good work.

Fair enough. QQQ has continued to grind higher, now 25.44, as bonds continue to get sold, FVX +4.3 bps, TNX +3.1 and TYX +1.1 bps. The USDX is back below 100.00, but only slightly. Strange indeed. In the meantime, thawing out would be a great idea.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  8:49:14 AM
One silver lining (in reference to Jonathan's last post) might be that European prognosticators, at least, were expecting anything from a 1% to a -1% growth in the GDP number, so some might find the 0.7% GDP a relief.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  8:36:54 AM
Interesting reaction to what looks like bad news to me: From CNNfn "Nation's economy grew at 0.7% rate in quarter, weaker than forecast. Jobless claims rose to 397,000 in latest week; employment cost index up 0.7% in 4Q."

Expectations were for .9% growth, and 385,000 new jobless claims. Despite a sudden spike down to 25.14 QQQ, it's now trading 25.35. I'll begin to dig for the silver lining I'm obviously missing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  8:13:21 AM
Could you please send me the source of put/call ratios for individual stocks and indices?

I have always followed the total p/c ratio, which is broken down by total equities and total indices volumes at the CBOE website. For individual equities, these total numbers can be derived from the option chains at pcquote.com.

Note that in all cases other than the total p/c ratio provided by the CBOE, the raw data is provided and you have to do the division yourself.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/30/03,  8:03:10 AM
The US Dollar Index had a great night, and is currently trading just over 100.00, as gold trades down to the 363/oz level. Equity futures are just off their highs, with NDX trading 1017.50 and SPX 863. QQQ is at 25.30 on Island ECN, up from its close of 25.15.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/30/03,  7:35:17 AM
Good morning! This morning, I do have good news to report. On the Asian front, Sony Corporation benefited from sales of PlayStation 2 games, DVD, and movie revenue, posting sales that rose 1% and profit that almost doubled. All wasn't good in Asia, however, ahead of a report tomorrow that might show a rising jobless rate. Some retail stocks fell as investors braced for the unemployment report, and the Nikkei ended the day down 0.17%.

Screens are currently green across Europe, however, with the FTSE 100 currently up 2.03%, the CAC 40 up 2.00%, and the DAX up .16%. Cheered by a FOMC bias statement that concluded that low interest rates and productivity gains will strengthen the biggest consumer of European exports, even the CAC 40 discounted the possible trouble signaled by a French economic number released today. That number pointed to a drop in exports as one reason behind planned decreases in production and indicated that French manufacturers' confidence declined. Some feel that the economy of the euro region may contract the first three months of the year.

European market participants are likely to watch for the release of the U.S. GDP number, to be released today at 8:30 ET. Initial claims will be released at the same time. European markets are likely to react to the GDP number, especially if it shows a contraction, as some fear.

In other news, Spain joined the U.K. and six other European nations in calling for European nations to stand with the U.S. if military action becomes necessary against Iraq. France and Germany so far remain staunch in their insistence that inspectors be given more time to complete their work. Russia and China also take this stance. While Germany's Schroeder makes it clear that Germany will not vote in favor of war in the Security Council, he also apparently has assured the U.S. that he will not restrict the U.S. use of German airbases and airspace.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/29/03,  12:26:00 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/29/03,  12:25:52 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/29/03,  12:25:43 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/29/03,  12:24:59 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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