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  Jeff Bailey   2/1/03,  6:39:24 PM
I'm leaving now I've written an article for this weekend's "Ask the Analyst" column (why I was in the office today) that was from a subscriber's question regarding "is there ever a time to just get out of the market." I hope you find it educational.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/1/03,  6:32:52 PM
Jeff,

It certainly is a sad day. I too rember the Challenger. (Actually, I'm old enough to remember the JFK assassination). I wonder how the market will react to this on Monday morning.

Thanks again for your updates.

Hmmmm.... I don't think major impact on the markets. But, Jim Brown was in the office for a moment and he had a rather different "twist" to market's reaction toward BA and LMT.

While my earlier comments were toward risk management and hedging a potential negative reaction to these two stocks, Jim made a point that todays tragedy might further stimulate demand for some type of "space plane" (I guess I've been in the dark, because I haven't heard of this before, but evidently its been discussed) whereby the need for a new design of "space plane" that looks to limit some of the potential "design flaws" of the shuttle stimulates renewed bullishness for the aerospace industry.

Again.... a "hedge" isn't intended to seek profit, but to cushion losses.

While you and I would probably agree that Jim can be a "little crazy" at times, his comments provide a bit of a twist to things.

Subscriber shouldn't feel "old" that she can remember the JFK assassination. While I was just coming into this world at that time, Jim Brown should be able to remember the JFK assassination. (grin)

Not to make light of things this sad day regarding Jim's age. Did you see the picture of the 7 astronauts that I posted earlier? Link They certianly looked like they were happy and excited about their mission at hand. And while we all share in sadness at today's tragedy, we can be assured that these seven individuals were doing something that they felt great passion for.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/1/03,  1:13:16 PM
Single Stock futures Here is some information that may be usefuld to traders, in the future regarding single stock futures. Link

It appears that Boeing (BA), does trade with single stock futures, but I don't see Lockheed Marting (LMT) on this list. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/1/03,  12:31:05 PM
Shuttle contractors Boeing (NYSE:BA) $31.59 Link and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) $51.05 Link will most likely be under some selling pressure on Monday morning.

I will confess my weakness or lack of knowledge at this point of single stock futures as a potential "hedge security" ahead of Monday's open for these two stocks, but will discuss potential hedge strategies here as it relates to option strategies.

Boeing (BA): Link Stock has been rather bearish since breaking below trend back in mid-June of last year at $57. Currently, a trade at $30 would be a reversing point and figure sell signal for this Dow component, and at $30, would have an initial bearish veritical count of $24. This $24 level, based on initial bearish count would be my first assessment of downside risk to those holding long. It would be my view that it may take 2 to 3 months of fact finding and analysis by NASA officials to make any type of "determination of fault" and a BA bull looking to hedge a long underlying position in the stock might look to the May $25.00 puts (BAQE) as an option to hedge a BA stock position. A May expiration put contract allow the investor holding the underlying stock of BA time to then assess and process future information released as it relates to today's events. The holder of a May $25 BA put allows the trader the right, but no obligation to sell the stock at $25.00 on or before May expiration, which is May 16, 2003. Note: May $30 BA put (BAQF) and MAY $27.50 (BAQY) would also be appropriate hedge options to consider. A trader holding long the underlying stock of BA, that may have been "losing conviction" toward the stock before today's events may also look at selling an at the money call option EQUAL TO the number of shares currently holding long (example: 100 shares = 1 contract), garnish the premium sold from the call to work down the cost of the "hedge" and price paid for the put option. This may only be relavant to investors holding upward of 500 shares.

Lockheed Martin (LMT): Link After giving a double-bottom sell signal at $53, and breaking of bullish support trend at $52, shares of LMT have currently generated a bearish vertical count of $42. A trade at $48 would be deemed further bearish and have the stock generating a spread-triple bottom sell signal. Hedge strategies here have me looking at expiration of March, June, September with the June $50 puts (LMTRJ) and June $45 puts (LMTRI) as potential hedge option candidates. Note: Similar strategy of selling covered calls to offset purchase of protective puts could also be used.

Investors/traders that don't have access to option chains during the weekend can access the CBOE site and option chains from the OptionInvestor.com front page under the "Tools" section, and "Option Quotes." Here is a Link to the CBOE option quote table.

Note: According to Dorsey/Wright and Associates, both BA and LMT have been categorized as "Aerospace/Airline." According to Dorsey/Wright and Associates, their Aerospace/Airline sector bullish % (BPAERO) achieved "bear confirmed" status just yesterday after reversing to "bull correction" status on January 23rd.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/1/03,  11:11:10 AM
Space shuttle Discovery missing At approximately 09:00 AM EST, Mission Control in Cape Canaveral lost radio contact with the space shuttle Columbia over Texas, just 16 minutes ahead of its scheduled landing in Florida.

Witnesses on the ground just north of the Dallas/Fort Worth area reported seeing what looked like a "white sparkler" falling from the sky just south and east of the Dallas/Fort Worth area in easterly flight toward Louisiana.

At this time, NASA officials have not confirmed that the shuttle Columbia has exploded, but it is assumed. NASA officials are urgently warning people that do find any type of debris to not go near, or touch the debris due to potential deadly chemicals that could be associated with the debris. People finding debris are to immediately call their local police.

At first, it was speculated that there may have been some type of terrorism involved because of an Israli connection, as the Columbia crew of seven Link included the first Israeli astronaut. However, a high level government official speaking under annonimity dismissed that type of speculation, saying the government was not aware of any terrorist threats toward the shuttle Columbia or U.S. space program. It was also noted that contact with the shuttle was lost at approximately 200,000 feet above sea level, which is an altitude where a surface-to-air missile could not reach with any degree of accuracy. It has also been stated that the shuttle Columbia would be traveling at Mach-18 speed (20,070 miles per hour), and the likelihood of any surface-to-air missile, which has accuracy to speeds of Mach-3 make for even further doubt that any type of terrorism is cause for today's event.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  8:23:52 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix has been updated for new DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY levels. Very few "exact" correlations found between the WEEKLY and MONTHLY levels, but I've highlighted some in "red" as resistance (DOW, NDX, QQQ) and some in "green" for support (NDX, QQQ) that are close. Link

One level in the MONTHLY pivot analysis, and a number that seems to keep showing up is OEX 444, which is this MONTH'S pivot. This 444 level showed up as last WEEK'S pivot (week just completed). Today's low of OEX 424.63 shows up in this WEEK'S S1 and becomes a level of support heading into this week's trade.

Tonight, I've taken two retracements and overlaid on the OEX chart. The "red" retracement is by anchoring 0% at this month's S2 and 100% from this months R2. The "blue" retracement is from this week's S2 and R2. Note today's OEX close of 432.57, which is very close to the MONTHLY 38.2% retracement of 432.57. Tonight's OEX close is also very close to the weekly OEX pivot of 432.50. At tonight's close, the OEX has a very "neutral" look to it doesn't it? With a good short/put entry area being between 442-444.50.

From the weekly "blue" retracement, I see 61.8% retracement at 436 and that level does correlate with Monday's daily R1 of 436. My near-term thinking based on this pivot/retracement analysis is the OEX is somewhat "neutral" here, should find resistance on Monday at no more than 436, otherwise, rally potential to 442-444. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  4:57:09 PM
Boots & Coots (WEL) $0.52 .... stock hit lower at $0.40 after receiving "Notice of Default." Link to story. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  4:07:51 PM
Whew! What a day. On my OEX five-minute chart, I note that prices came back up to test the underside of that regression/bear flag channel and fell away from it. On the 60-minute charts, the 21(3)3 stochastics made a bearish cross mid-way through their rise, but those crosses can uncross. The 5(3)3 stochastics have also made a bearish cross, and these are doing so in overbought levels, but I note that the slow line has just now begun its downward roll.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  3:57:42 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  3:55:54 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Follow up to Jonathon's last post - I would like the short position much better if the COMP can close below 1319, which is sitting just above right now. (1321.53)

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  3:53:49 PM
steve would you use stoplimit or just stops for your stop loss orders thank you dayton

I mostly use plain stops. If something has developed that I don't like, I just want to get out, rather than waiting to get the best price on getting out.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  3:53:45 PM
I've drawn a downsloping trendline on this latest leg down on the 5 minute candles, and sure enough, it just resisted the move higher just above 1319. A closing print of 1319 would display the usual sardonic panache that I've come to expect from the COMPX. As ever, leaving all participants, bearish, bullish, or neutral, with a question mark.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  3:45:41 PM
A helpful reader has pointed out that I once again used the term "oversold" when I should have said "overbought." In fact, I did it twice in my 13:41 post.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  3:42:38 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I like the fade across all of the indices, particularly with the COMP back under 1319. However, the Dow got quite a bounce off of 8000, and traders with risk aversions may want to simply wait out the current volatility until we get a better trend. I'm sticking with the 1/4 short, but we are back to where we entered, so traders who were sweating heavily on the run-up can get out here for the bid-ask loss.

Current levels: Dow 8029/SPX 853.05/OEX 431.24/COMP 1317

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  3:41:01 PM
One danger I'm noting today is that if OEX prices were to fall to levels near the opening price, the candle would be a doji. That doji would follow yesterday's bearish engulfing candle. That sets up the potential for a three-candle morning-star formation. That doesn't mean that the potential would be fulfilled, but it's something for traders to watch.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  3:34:18 PM
The $SOX and SMH are rolling down from their test of the upper end of their gap downs from this morning. If they move below the bottoms of those gaps, that's bearish behavior. 5(3)3 hourly stochastics are turning down as they make this move, but I'm not sure that they'll drop that far by today's close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  3:32:16 PM
The COMPX is now down 6.20 points on the day, and given how things were looking this morning, I need to suggest that a golfclap is in order. Nevertheless, 1319 is 4 points north of here, and the lows of the day are 12 or so points below. The TRINQ has nudged up to 1.90, TICK.NQ -220, and I don't have the courage it would take to put on a long position, particularly given the failure at 1328. Yet another lower high to ponder.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  3:30:21 PM
Speaking of longer-term behavior, I pulled up retracements in the SPX contract last night dating back to October 1990. Believe it or not, there was a retracement using that relative low that has recently come into play. Please see article: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  3:22:40 PM
Even if you go with the more conservative bear-flag theory on the five-minute OEX charts, the price has now broken beneath the bottom line of the upward-sloping regression channel that defined the bear flag pattern. Isn't it magic the way these chart patterns work out sometimes? I'd identified 434 as an area where the bear flag might break down because of two factors. I snapped a Fib retracement tool from Wednesday's high to this morning's low, since bear flags tend to break down about halfway up the previous move. That level turned out to be about 432.50, but I noticed there had been support near 434 from Wednesday through midday yesterday. I fudged a little on the halfway mark, and thought 434 would be a good place to watch for a breakdown. A note of caution, though. Five-minute chart patterns might give you guidance as to what might happen in the next few minutes, and their confirmation may sometimes begin a movement that momentum continues, but they're not predictive of longer-term behavior.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  3:12:45 PM
It definitely seems like the bond market closing was the catalyst. Will the Dow trade under its 8008 pivot? For me, the most impressive of all moves would be for the Dow to trade to 7955. This recent bearishness, in my opinion, would be nullified with a move back above 8055. What a day today has been....

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  3:10:16 PM
The put to call ratio has ticked up .01 to .78, as QQQ goes below 25.50. The COMPX is clearly being supported by the neckline of its daily h&s pattern, and the inability to get meaningfully above 1328 doesn't look healthy to me. A close below 1319 should strike fear into the hearts of bulls. I'll be surprised if that happens, but the TICK.NQ at -238 and the TRINQ climbing slightly to 1.75 has me cautiously optimistic for my bearish positions.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  3:05:48 PM
With the bond market now closed, will bears step forward? I think a move under 8040 in the Dow would be a good start. Note: Dow would have to rally to 8131 to finish the week unchanged. The Comp would have to get to 1342.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  2:48:10 PM
I'm not making any bets yet, but perhaps the bearish rising wedge theory (OEX five-minute chart) has some validity. Here's a snapshot showing the broken trendline and an unsuccessful test of the trendline. That test did occur under 434. The day still has some time to go, though, and the underpinning in the market hints more at short-covering to finish the day than a fall away from this bearish formation. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  2:39:51 PM
Reader Question: That article [Leigh wrote about the MACD] is great. Did he write about the RSI too?

Response: If you're a newer trader, it's a great idea to learn about these oscillators. Here's the requested article on RSI: Link You can find a whole series of Leigh's articles about oscillators under the Trader's Corner section. This section can be found at sidebar on the left of the OptionInvestor homepage, under Education. Better yet, Leigh's book is available through the bookstore OptionInvestor offers!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  2:37:54 PM
The CBOE put to call ratio just printed .77 again, and the COMPX remains in its tight range, which, incidentally, looks like a pretty safe place for it to stay, given the shellacking it looked ready to receive this morning. But I digress. The QQV has actually faded .55 to 39.11, as QQQ options traders begin to relax and part with their contracts for less premium. The TRINQ is in neutral sell territory at 1.59, TICK.NQ -111. The CRB index is holding its gains, and for the moment, the market is just passing time.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  2:25:34 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We keep knocking on that R1 door, without any real breakdown on the pullbacks. That indicates to me that we are headed higher by the end of the day. We could see another spike and I'm going to stick with a small 1/4 position at this point. Aggressive traders can target those R1s to add to the short, but given the total market schizophrenia of the last few days, along with the weekend ahead of the Iraq situation, any trade should be considered HIGH RISK.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  2:22:49 PM
Regarding the chart shown in my 12:49 post, the Dow is now underneath the bullish regression channel and has been using the lower end of the channel as resistance. This channel slopes upwards, and will be tested once more at 8076. With only 1.5 hours left in the session, it will be hard to really reverse this bullish momentum.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  2:18:32 PM
Jonathan mentioned earlier that he saw the COMPX moving in either a bear flag or a rising wedge formation, and I've been seeing the same thing on the OEX five-minute charts (new bear flag, not the broken one from the previous few days). If the supporting line is drawn through the bottoms of the candles, excluding the candles, the formation looks like a rising wedge, and the support line has been broken. If the supporting line is drawn so that it includes the shadows, the formation is a bear flag and the supporting line has not yet been broken. In either case, if this is a bearish formation, it should break down between current levels and 434, or it would lose its significance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  2:10:59 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  2:09:06 PM
The put to call ratio is staying in the mid .70s, latest reading .77. TRINQ 1.63, TICK.NQ -73. FVX is flat on the day, with TNX -1.2 bps and TYX -3.3 bps. Still staring at rangebound action on the COMPX between 1319 support and 1328 resistance.

 
 
  Kent Barton   1/31/03,  2:08:25 PM
OTC and Generic drug-maker Lannett (LCI) has announced a 3-for-2 stock split. The split will be distributed on February 28th to shareholders of record on February 14th. Shares have been trending higher in 2003 and are moving towards the all-time high at $22.98.

The stock is traded on the American Exchange, so Q-charts users looking for a quote might have to type in "amex:LCI"

 
 
  Ray Cummins   1/31/03,  1:59:28 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Notable Events

Shares of Harman International Industries (NYSE:HAR) rallied today after the company reported a sharply higher second quarter profit, powered by strong sales of systems for automobiles. The maker of popular electronics brands including Infinity, JBL and Harman Kardon said net income more than doubled from the year-ago quarter due to strong sales in Europe to Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porsche and Audi for new automotive systems. In addition, sales of the JBL branded music systems to Toyota were well above the prior year and digital audio system shipments to Lexus were strong. Sales of consumer home audio products were not as robust, only 5% above last year for the six-month period. Our (speculative) bearish credit spread in the issue had been "hanging by a thread" but today's activity bumped us out of the position with a small loss. Aggressive traders may choose to wait for a consolidation before making an exit or adjustment decision as previous rallies have failed at the current price ($61-$62), which is also near the company's "all-time" high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  1:48:55 PM
Looks like a violation of the upsloping trendline on the COMPX 5 minute candles. Failure at 1328. We'll see how it does with 1319 support. No whoosh down so far despite the trendline break- makes me cautious.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  1:44:13 PM
Dow stocks up more than $1: BA +1.31 CAT +1.30 DD +1.00 JNJ +1.84 PG +1.12 DIS +1.14 MMM (+2.05)

There are none down more than $1, but a list those stocks down on the day are the techs: IBM (-0.34) HPQ (-0.92) INTC (-0.09) MSFT (-0.38) and non-tech MCD (-0.31)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  1:41:31 PM
Did Dan Niles say something negative this morning about the semi-conductors? Is that what's responsible for the rebound? In addition to the AMAT news this morning, NEC lowered guidance for the year due to lower cap-ex expenditures. Although the 5(3)3 hourly stochastics on the SOX and SMH are moving toward oversold levels as they test the upper limits of those gaps, the stochs aren't even hinting at turning down as of this writing, and the 21(5)3 hourly stochs haven't reached oversold levels yet. While I do expect another rollover in both ahead of the gap down level from the 17th, it's difficult at this juncture to tell when that rollover might occur. On the hourly chart, it's possible to draw a descending trendline from the two relative highs made since the 17th, with that trendline now crossing at 22.75 (and moving lower each hour), but a trendline formed from two points is iffy, at best.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  1:38:47 PM
I am currently reading a news wire that says that Iraq will take over the chairmanship of the UN conference on disarmament. India, the former head, will reportedly relinquish this position to Iraq for one month when the session begins in Geneva on March 17th. This is all done alphabetically, and Iraq apparently comes after India.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  1:34:17 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We are making another run at those R1 levels (Dow 8087/SPX 859/OEX 435), with the Dow briefly breaking above, but the SPX and OEX still a couple of points away.

Current levels: Dow 8076/SPX 856.66/OEX 432.88/COMP 1328.76

My biggest concern lies in the COMP and NDX, which took out the November pullback lows I identified earlier this morning, but rebounding strongly in spite of the AMAT news.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  1:29:29 PM
It wouldn't surprise me, Mark. I don't like to write off my confusion, but the miraculous save on the US Dollar Index amid a typhoon of awful news this morning looks awfully robust, and my suspicion is that a yellow revolving emergency bulb went off somewhere, if not in Al Green's three acre walk in closet, then somewhere else. Was it the Working Group on Capital Markets- the Plunge Protection Team? Al Green's measly 1.75B addition was too small to ramp the US Dollar and the indices that much. Or, perhaps it was the fundies protecting their positions at the end of the month, though I've been hearing that their cash positions are very low. Either way, 1335, 1340, or 1350 are details to me. Commodities are strongly climbing day after day, gold has been tough to keep down, and the COMPX has been tough to keep up.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  1:29:11 PM
Linda was commenting on the SOX and SMH filling their gaps earlier today. Just took a look and while the SOX is positive (gap filled) and moving higher, SMH still showing a loss of 9-cents on the day (gap still presenting resistance).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  1:25:06 PM
Barr Labs (BRL) $79.64 +0.81% ... Jeff: I'm caught in a BRL (Barr Labs) Put (FEB)....feeling some pain... What do you think of the chart/play Jonathan suggested I check with you on a PnF basis

Hmmmm.... p/f chart has been quite bullish since giving triple-top buy signal at $61 and breaking bearish resistance trend at $61. Vertical count was built to $88. Link

I'm hoping that buying puts on such a strong chart was done with risk capital only, and looking for some type of "unexpected" news that trader has some type of scenario for to unfold and have stock falling. I wouldn't be a buyer of the stock at these extended levels, but I can't say I'd be a bear either. I'm of little help. Best thing if OVER LEVERAGED in puts is to now have to set a stopping point where further upside has RISK to account being to great. Lesson learned about shorting/putting strong stocks?

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  1:24:25 PM
is it possible that unknown forces are trying to close composite above 1335. that will be a gain for the month.

Interesting thought...Clearly NASDAQ is the only major index (either COMPX or NDX) that has a ghost of a chance to close the month positive. The fact that the NAZ has been relatively stronger than the other indices so far this year goes right along with my thoughts from the beginning of the month that tech stocks should be stronger than the rest of the market this year due to the fact that they endured the brunt of the selling in the bear market, so far. That said, it's hard to find much for the bulls to like in the COMPX here, except that it has managed to claw its way back over 1320. But a move over 1335.51 (December close) seems unlikely at this point in the day. Of course, with "unknown forces" (PPT) at work, anything is possible.

Any thoughts, Jonathan? COMPX questions are more your forte, than mine...

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  1:10:09 PM
Charles Schwab (SCH) announced today that it will be selling its UK brokerage business to Barclays for an undisclosed amount. This will give Barclays more than 150,000 accounts and $3.6 billion in assets. It will most likely also result in job cuts. Schwab will maintain its U.S. dollar business in the UK, which amounts to about 13,000 customer accounts. The company also announced today that it will name David Pottruck as sole CEO. Shares of SCH are up fractionally at 9.22.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  1:09:19 PM
The Commodities Index (CRB) continues higher today, +1.40 to 248.67. Other than gold, silver and oil, all of its components are green today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  1:04:00 PM
Question Jeff: Did you have a target in mind for WEL?

Yes, but all I've done to establish a target of $0.96 as preliminary target is to take retracement from $0.06 and "fit" the 19.1% retracement of $0.23 to the recent high closed before the volume move higher above that level. The results of retracement levels had 38.2% at $0.40 (yesterday's entry profile), 50% at $0.51, 61.8% at $0.61, 80.9% at $0.78 and 100% at $0.96.

However, I'm looking to simply trade some levels in this SPECULATIVE stock, and target of $0.96 is subject to change, with potential to $2.75-$3.00

I've also taken the p/f chart of WEL, changed the box size to $0.05. I've "back tested" a prior bullish count from January of last year that was given at $0.55, which gave vertical count of $1.00, which by March, saw the stock trade $1.00, before giving sell signal at $0.65. The current bullish vertical count on this scale (column of X from $0.15-$0.55) gives vertical count to $1.50. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  1:01:44 PM
Do you mean in the 5 min frame? Same with the QQQ's I think. Thanks for all your comments, I'm in awe.

My apologies, yes. I should have identified the time frame. This is, in fact, one of my pet peeves- many talk about "up" or "down", but without identifying the time frame. This makes it difficult at best to understand the call. I was looking at the 5 minute candles. And, thanks for the props!

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  12:55:41 PM
TDS $42.66 (+1.41) Support holds again! I think there are some resting bids at the $41.25 level in this stock, as it once again rebounded from that level following some early weakness. Certainly not a bullish trade candidate by any means, but today's bounce once again proves the wisdom in targeting new entries on failed rallies, not on weakness. The stock has rebounded from exactly $41.25 on each of the past 3 days and today's move is threatening to challenge Thursday's intraday high. Watch for failure of this rally at either yesterday's highs ($42.90) or the 10-dma ($43.28).

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  12:50:20 PM
SYMC $46.88 (+0.50) Things didn't look so hot for the bulls this morning, with everything opening in the red, but SYMC pulled another rabbit out of its hat, bouncing just above the $45 level again and at this time is resting just under $47, currently the high of the day. Can the bulls manage a breakout over this level? Time will tell, but traders that have been following our recommendations to buy the dips are looking good so far. With the $45 level holding as support on the last two dips, I would look to tighten stops to $44.50 (just below Tuesday's intraday low) or even $45 going into the weekend.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  12:49:18 PM
That last bit of weakness in the Dow didn't manage to get the blue chips back to the daily pivot. Here is a chart of today's activity. The "open TEST drive" pattern continues. I really think bears were surprised that the Dow got back above the Weekly S1 area of 7955. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  12:45:31 PM
The COMPX is rising from its lows in what is either a bear flag or a rising wedge- neither is bullish, and this looks like a corrective wave in the context of the longer decline. The put to call ratio supports this interpretation, but it helps to have targets in view. 1340 is moderate resistance on the COMPX, while 1350 is strong resistance.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  12:44:58 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Pretty amazing rally considering how we started the day. We are above the intraday resistances I was targeting from yesterday. If we are seeing an end of month rally, I'm going to let it run before adding to the small short position, currently 1/4. All indications now are that we will close near the highs of the day, but the R1 sits at 8078 and more aggressive traders can think about adding short here, with the failure at 8079.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  12:37:53 PM
At 13.50 currently, CSCO is rising to test its simple 200-dma at 13.57 again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  12:27:41 PM
What do you think, a short covering rally under way into the weekend?

Possibly. End of month markup? Possibly. I think it's an oversold bounce, and doubt if we'll see very much follow through. We had a lower high and lower lows this week, and 1350 should be the ceiling for the COMPX in the near term. I'll be surprised if we see it, but I've been surprised before. I believe we might have just seen the high- the failure at 1328 is telling.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  12:25:40 PM
There goes 1319 COMPX, next resistance 1328. TRINQ 1.54, TICK.NQ 171.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  12:09:38 PM
Note: The US Dollar is now above the 100 level, but still down 2.5% against the Euro this year. This could be helping stocks; however, it was interesting that the Compx barely goes positive and the Dow takes out its daily high by less than 10-points. Still above the pivot at 8008, but just barely.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  12:09:31 PM
Latest put to call reading: .69.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  12:09:12 PM
Oil well control ... WEL $0.53 +26%, RES $10.40 +14%, SPN +12.5% jumping today on Reuters report that these company's, which specialize in oil well fires, have been put on notice by low-level U.S. military officials that their services may be required in the coming months if Iraq torches it oil wells in the event of war.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  12:05:48 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Conservative traders can use a stop on the short position at 8075. this would be just above the 8062 resistance from yesterday afternoon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  12:05:41 PM
Like the Dow Jones Transportation Index I mentioned earlier, the Russell 2000 also appears to be consolidating just above last-ditch support before its July lows. After a steep decline, such consolidation would normally be viewed as a continuation pattern before a further move in the same direction, but a reversal pattern can't be excluded yet. If it is a continuation pattern, this pattern has measuring abilities, with the consolidation usually occurring about midway in the potential decline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  12:05:21 PM
Offline for a bit there. The put to call ratio has fallen to .74 on this rise in the indices, ditto the TRINQ at 1.89, while the TICK.NQ remains negative at -249. Yields remain undecided, with FVX -.4 bps. Precious metals are off their lows, -1.34 and -.91 for the HUI and XAU respectively. The COMPX 1319 resistance line continues to hold.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  12:00:41 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I think we are approaching heavy intraday ressitance in the Dow at 8035-8060 and in the SPX at 854-856. Conservative traders may weant to wait a little longer to see how that resistance plays out before entering positions.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  12:00:31 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were triggered on the 1/4 short position when the Dow traded 8030 at 11:59:24

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  11:58:30 AM
PIMCO's Paul McCulley is on the wire with views of deflation, and this certainly seems to be helping the 30-year bond. In other news, Jeff's Boots&Coots (WEL) is making headlines after the company has been put on notice by low-level U.S. military officials. If Iraq burns its oil wells in the event of war, WEL's services may be required.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  11:56:33 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  11:51:00 AM
Similarly, the SOX has closed its gap down. SOX bulls want it to close above the top of that gap, and bears want it to turn down now.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  11:50:32 AM
Hi Mark, Wondering what you think of AZO now. Thanks JK

Great question, JK! I've written about AZO on numerous occasions over the past month, all with a bearish slant, and that's still my bias. I am somewhat surprised that the stock is holding nominally at the top of yesterday's gap, without much giveback, even on an intraday basis. The PnF chart is where I get my bias on any stock that I'm interested in trading, and that picture still says down, at least on the standard 1-box scale. Link Note that it would take a trade at $68 to turn the longer-term picture bullish with a Buy signal.

However, if we drill down to a smaller scale (0.5-box size), we can see the first hint of some bullishness building (at least on a short-term basis. Link I wouldn't be interested in trying to game a bullish entry here, but would wait for a pullback into the $62 area. That looks like like decent support and is near the bottom of yesterday's gap up. But bullish trades aren't going to be made with my account until the longer-term PnF chart turns bullish. I think I would be cautious about gaming bearish entries at current levels though, as it isn't really that favorable on a risk/reward basis.

Upside risk is to the $68 level where we would see a PnF Buy signal, while downside reward is likely limited to the $61.50-62.00 area in the near term. That makes risk/reward roughly 1:1. If determined to play the short side here, I would consider it an aggressive trade and would place stops at $66.25, just above the 20-dma ($65.64), yesterday's intraday resistance (after the opening volatility), and the intraday highs from January 17th.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  11:48:50 AM
Currently trading at 21.59, the SMH is testing the top of its gap down. SMH bulls want it to move (and close) above that gap. Bears want it to turn down from these levels.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  11:47:50 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are now near today's highs and I am going to enter a short 1/4 position on the next falure. We may have more upside, so I'm going to start small. And please keep in mind that this is a HIGH RISK play ahead of next Tuesday's Colin Powell presentaion at the UN. If Saddam heads into exile, we could see a huge gap up. However, all evidence has pointed to a consistent down trend.

Go Short a 1/4 position at Dow 8030. Set stops at 8230. Target 7500

Current level: Dow 8039

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  11:42:11 AM
Some European markets recovered from their lows today. The FTSE 100 closed down, but the CAC 40 closed up .8%, and the DAX now trades in the green, up 1.08%. The DAX trades for another two hours.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  11:32:26 AM
Swing Trade Signals
So far we are seeing a series of higher intraday lows, but right now struggling to hold the 8000 level. As Linda has pointed out, it is tough to pick direction from here. Call me an optimist but I'm still looking for a spike to the day's highs to enter short just below 8050. As the day wears on, however, we are getting closer to the weekend preceding Colin Powel"s UN speech. I don't expect we'll be hearing anything new, but you never know. I am tempted to go short here, but with continuing strngth in today's move, I'm going to be patient and let the rally run its course.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  11:20:52 AM
Adv/dec and up/down ratios on NYSE issues still show more advancers than decliners and more up than down volume, and the opposite is still true on the Nasdaq. On the NYSE, 443 million shares have traded, while volume is a bit stronger on the Nasdaq, at 555 million shares.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  11:15:23 AM
CSCO's seeming strength dissipated today, as CSCO currently trades at 14.25, dropping quickly after moving below its simple 200-dma. A drop (and close) below 12.80 would confirm a double-top pattern in CSCO, with a prediction of a 10.10 target. (15.50 tops - 12.80 baseline = 2.70. Subtract 2.70 from 12.80 baseline = 10.10 target)

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  11:09:19 AM
The WSJ has reported that AOL Time Warner (AOL) is considering to get rid of Warner Music Group in order to help with the company's financial problems. Shares of AOL are lower by 2.16% at 11.75. Shares look to be in a Weekly Bearish Flag formation, and P&F charts gives a bearish price objective of 8.00. I think there will be some support at the 10 dollar area. It would take a move above 15 to get me to more neutral sentiment levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  11:03:17 AM
Currently at 2151.39, the Down Jones Transportation Index is in the green, but still trading within that consolidation range it's been in all week, holding just above its 2090 July lows. There's not much guidance here on market direction, as the daily 5(3)3 stochs try to turn up and RSI is deep in oversold territory, but MACD still looks bearish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  10:54:40 AM
Volume patterns prove interesting this morning, as I note more advancers than decliners on the NYSE, with a 1.43 adv/dec ratio, but more decliners than advancers on the Nasdaq, with a .84 adv/dec ratio. Up volume is slightly ahead of down volume on the NYSE, although they're roughly equal, while down volume is four times up volume on the Nasdaq. New lows trump new highs on both.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  10:52:18 AM
I was curious where the 8039 daily came from in the Dow, and it might have been a simple 50% retracement of the recent daily consolidation. Please see chart: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  10:45:44 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We got a failed rebound at the 38.2% retraacement of 7982 on the 5 min chart, which held earlier in the day. I'd still like another shot at the 8050 area, but aggressive tradres can use that failure as a partial entry point and add to the position on a failure at 8050. I'm going to try and be patient for a better entry around the day's highs if we fail there again.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  10:41:50 AM
CTSH $59.82 (+1.07) Just in the nick of time! We dropped this OI Put play last night after the stock bucked the broad market downtrend all day. Today, it is up pretty strongly again, in part due to an upgrade from Mkt Perform to Buy at Punk Zeigel. I'm not familiar with this firm, but apparently somebody is listening, with the stock already trading over 85% of its ADV.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  10:36:15 AM
The CBOE put to call ratio has dropped a touch to .84 for this past half hour.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  10:33:29 AM
After the Internet bubble, many learned to trust seasoned wisdom rather than believe in a new paradigm. Here's some seasoned wisdom offered by one of the readers: My father worked in the business, on the floor, for many, many years. Taking the benefit of his advice over the years .... he said always but always watch MER .... the floor loves that one. If it is UP the market is UP. Sounds wild but the street plays against MER .... I noticed that early today MER was UP ... for what it is worth ... its 45 years of advice. I know it's not very scientific but hard to argue with experience. While I'm certainly not presenting this as scientific evidence, either, the reader's comment made me realize that while I'm monitoring stocks I feel important, such as CSCO and GE, I'm rather light on my monitoring of the financials, and perhaps that's a blind spot I ought to correct. For what it's worth, MER turned down again when the markets did.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  10:32:30 AM
Current levels: Dow 7955/SPX 843.39/OEX 426.11 COMP 1305

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  10:32:07 AM
The COMPX is looking worse as it reapproaches it lows of the day, with the TRINQ higher at 3.29, but the TICK.NQ showing broader selling at -332. Bond yields have gone negative again. COMPX is printing new lows as I type, currently 1305.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  10:30:59 AM
Swing Trade Signals
That was one heck of a fade. The move above the pivot and over the opening range indicated we'd be seeing a close near the highs. However, the reversal down through several 5 min retracement levels has reversed that sentiment. Aggressive traders can go short on the failure, but I'm still hoping for another move a little higher for entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  10:29:16 AM
Expedia (EXPE) $59.30 -0.98% ... breaking to session lows here. Key technicals from bar-chartist perspective was that stock closed below the longer-term 200-day SMA for two-consecutive sessions. Something not seen since sharp decline back on July 23-24 from $54-$41 in 2-day period. Link

Near-term, looking for stock to "fill gap" from $61.40 to $57.80 if 10/23/02-10/24/02. P/F chart has bullish support trend at $57, with bearish vertical count of $50. I currently own 2 puts in EXPE, and plan is to sell one at/near $57, then hold other for target of $50.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  10:20:37 AM
I do find it interesting that the Nasdaq is still negative, but there certainly was reversal in bond prices (now lower by '4 ticks at 111'19). Selling is especially heavy in the five-year sector. The Utility Index (UTY) also reversed its losses and is now higher by 1.40-points to 246.20. The Dow is now back below its pivot, and I wonder if the relatively weak Nasdaq can pull the blue chips lower.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  10:19:34 AM
The fed has just announced a weekend repo of 5.75B, which covers the expiring 4B and leaves 1.75B extra.

So far, 1319 COMPX has held as resistance, and the TRINQ has eased off its high readings, now 2.36, while the TICK.NQ has headed back to negative at -115. Yields are now lightly positive with FVX +1.6 bps. Precious metals remain down, HUI -1.95 and XAU -1.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  10:15:02 AM
Boots&Coots (WEL) $0.47 +11.9% ... from earlier mentioning, monitoring stock's action today. Have alert set above recent highs of $0.57 to signal further "concern" toward Iraq, while downside alert set below yesterday's low of $0.28 for "lack of concern" toward Iraq.

Disclosure: I have small bullish position in WEL from yesterday's SPECULATIVE profile of $0.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  10:13:36 AM
Before today, I had never been sure that the SMH had moved below the neckline of its H&S formation. I had tried drawing that neckline several ways, trying to make the best possible guess. Today's gap down on the SMH moved it below the most conservative of those necklines I had drawn.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  10:11:35 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We took out several levels on the 5 min fitted retracement on the way up and now have an awfully big reversal, giving the impression that we got our failed rally, along with the COMP finding resistance at the 1319 level. The NDX is back aove the 972 breakdown level, but fading. I'm going to give things a few minutes to shake out here, as we are sitting right around Dow 8000.

Current levels: Dow 8001/SPX 848.46/OEX 428.70/COMP1313

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  10:10:57 AM
QQQ $24.25 -1.18% ... early morning technicals had QQQ low of $24.01, then rebound to $24.50, which filled the morning gap lower from yesterday's close of $24.51, then got hit. Should find resistance now at $24.81, from this week's retracement.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  10:04:43 AM
The opening put to call ratio has come in at .88. Still no update from the fed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  10:04:10 AM
Perhaps my wariness this morning comes from my early morning report that the Nikkei rebounded today after hitting a 20-year low, closing in the green.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  10:03:02 AM
Chicago PMI 56.0% vs 53.0% consensus

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  10:02:58 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Big boost off the economic data.

Current levels: Dow 8039/SPX 851.25/OEX 430.62/COMP 1321

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  10:02:08 AM
Revised Michigan sentiment 82.4 vs 83.5 consensus. The final January Michigan index fell to 82.4 vs the 83.7 mid-month reading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  10:02:00 AM
This is micro-managing, but I note that after hitting the 21-pma on the five-minute chart the first time, OEX turned back again. GE's strength worries me a little, although CSCO now prints at 13.56, just below its simple 200-dma at 13.57. GE's bounce may be a reflexive one, after opening just pennies below its low of the week, but I'm watching, as I notice KO, UNH, KBH, and other DOW stocks trading in the green today. OEX now has moved above that 21-pma, now at 427.87, about the level of Wednesday's low.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  10:00:47 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The bounce has taken us above the opening range high and so far is holding above the 19.1% 5 min fitted retracement, indicating bullishness for the day. A 5 min close over 7982 would underscore that theory, however, the pivot still remains at 8008 and a failure there could be a short entry point.

Current levels Dow 7980/SPX 846.92/OEX 427.97/COMP 1314.

I like the fact that the COMP found resistance at the 1319 breakdown level on its bounce.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  9:58:33 AM
I am surprised at this rebound, and a move above today's pivot at 8008 will force me to re-evaluate conditions. An "open TEST drive" higher today? Sure feels that way; nevertheless, I will stick with my proverbial line in the sand. I wish the pivot wasn't so far from the opening (over 60 points).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:53:24 AM
Sector strength Biotech (BTK.X) +1.8%, Drug (DRG.X) 1.2%, Healthcare (RXH.X) +1.03%

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  9:53:03 AM
As a reminder, there is the Chicago PMI report due out at 10 a.m. Estimates are for a rise in January to 53 versus 51, month prior. New orders are expected to increase, while economists expect employment to fall back below the 50 level. Above 50 represents expansion, while underneath is a sign of contraction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  9:52:49 AM
The OEX has now bounced above yesterday's, Wednesday's, and Monday's lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:52:24 AM
Sector weakness in first 20-minutes has Semiconductor (SOX.X) -3.2%, Gold/Silver (XAU.X) -1.3%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) -1.2%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:52:12 AM
Miraculous bounce off the lows on the Sentiment numbers. QQQ currently 24.39, COMPX testing the support/resistance zone at 1319.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  9:50:06 AM
Michigan sentiment down to 82.4, down from 86.7, according to CNBC.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  9:49:17 AM
Swing Trade Signals
So far the "ideal scenario" I talked about in last night's Swing Wrap is playing itself out. We got the COMP/NDX breakdowns below the November levels and then a rally. I'd like a bigger rally to short, possibly with a failure at Dow 8000 or 8050, but I'm not sure if we'll get it.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  9:47:57 AM
More on QLGC After scanning the news sources, I found the likely cause for the QLGC weakness this morning. Merrill Lynch had a note out before the open saying that Fujitsu's announcement that it would like to sell its HDD bisiness increases the uncertainty for QLGC's earnings. Merrill believes that MXO (which does not use QLGC HDD controllers) is the most likely buyer of the Fujitsu unit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:47:44 AM
Applied Materials (AMAT) ... released for trading ... $11.90 -7.9%. Had WEEKLY S2 of $12.28, S1 of $12.77 for this semi-equipment name as I've been more bearish in recent weeks on AMAT, KLAC, NVLS.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:46:20 AM
Surprising strength in the COMPX, for that matter. The TRINQ is 3.06, but the TICK.NQ is +125, showing very concentrated selling. This is the reverse of what we've been seeing for the past few days.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:45:26 AM
NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) 973.51 -1.2% ... and QQQ $24.17 -1.46% both trade below this WEEK's S1 level. As discussed in last night's Index Trader Wrap, this is "confirmation" that index bears wanted to see, with the relatively stronger technicals of the NDX/QQQ following yesterday's breaks of WEEKLY S1s for Dow, SPX and OEX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:42:43 AM
Surprising strength in GE, +1.11% at its high of the day, 22.80.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  9:40:01 AM
In addition to the carnage in the rest of the Technology arena, I'm noticing heavy selling and a big drop in shares of QLGC this morning. Already off 7.5% in the first five minutes of the day on 1/6 of the daily volume, this stock does not look healthy. I had been watching to see if the $35 support level would hold as support. Obviously, it didn't and the PnF chart will now produce a fresh Sell signal. conservative traders don't want to chase the stock lower though, as the current site of the bullish support line is $31. The safer entry strategy for new bearish positions would be to now wait for a failed rebound below the $35-36 area.

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  9:38:55 AM
After the first five-minutes of trading, the Dow has seen a range of 7920 to 7941. Still underneath the pivot; nevertheless, bulls are trying to avoid another day of selling pressure. Will it work? The Sox is already lower by 3.45 percent, while the 30-year bond is above the 112 area at 112'02 and higher by '11 ticks on the session. The dollar is fractionally higher, while the XAU is down fractionally; nevertheless, equities still look weak. We should know soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:36:58 AM
The fed has 4B due in expiring overnight repos. Awaiting the 10AM announcement.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:35:35 AM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $12.98 .... halted for trading.

KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) $31.68 -6.04% and Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) $28.32 -5.25%, both defensive.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:33:03 AM
14 point gap down open to 1308 COMPX, TRINQ 2.5, QQV +.96 to 40.62.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:32:52 AM
Citigroup (C) $33.91 -0.84% ... reversing p/f sell signal here for Dow component and triple-bottom sell signal. Near-term downside risk to Bullish support trend of $32, with bearish vertical count of $29. Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  9:31:43 AM
Intra-day Pivot/Levels for Friday (01/31/02)...

INDU : S2= 7808, S1= 7875, P= 8008 , R1= 8078 , R2= 8211

SPX : S2= 830, S1= 837, P= 851, R1= 859, R2= 873

OEX : S2= 418, S1= 423, P= 430 , R1= 435, R2=443

NDX : S2= 961, S1=973 , P= 998, R1=1010 , R2=1035

QQQ : S2= 23.88, S1= 24.19, P= 24.81 , R1= 25.12, R2= 25.74

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:31:06 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  9:30:18 AM
NASDAQ-futures (nd03h) 974.50 -12.5 points, really got hit hard on the AMAT news.

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  9:26:30 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currently flat. That AMAT news should help take out the November pullback support level in the COMP at 1319 that has held strong the last several days. 972 is the equivalent level in the NDX. Once those levels are out of the way, there are few barriers preventing us from heading toward the H&S objectives. I'm still looking for a bounce entry, but once we clear those hurdles, I'll be more confident on a momentum move, as well. So far we have gotten failed rebounds at the neckline breakdowns and those traders still short with stops at 8200, or any of my other suggested levels (possibly 8060) should hold those short positions at this point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:20:47 AM
I'm also hearing that North Korea is talking about dusting off its nuclear fuel rods. It sounds like there are many things to fret about this morning.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  9:20:10 AM
This can't be helping either...Siliconstrategies.com is reporting that an XBox slowdown is starting to be felt in the supply chain, with chip orders from various suppliers being pushed out. Xbox uses INTC processors, NVDA graphics chips, and other chips from CRUS, STM and Samsung.

Almost as good as a Dan Niles upgrade! GRIN

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:17:58 AM
I was sort of hoping for the Niles upgrade scenario, but I think you're right, Mark. Yields have dropped a bit more, FVX -2.2 bps, and with QQQ 40 cents lower than it was 10 minutes ago, it looks like a gap down open for the COMPX.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   1/31/03,  9:13:21 AM
Jonathan, I see two possibilities. First CVX missed their Q4 earnings estimate by $0.29, and then AMAT announced that they see Q1 orders below target.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:13:14 AM
I believe this is what may be spooking the premarket: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/31/03,  9:12:24 AM
AMAT just warned that orders were -35% below the 4Q level!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:11:01 AM
I'm trying to find out what just hit the futures. Was it UAL's wider loss just announced, or did Dan Niles just say something bullish about QQQ?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  9:08:15 AM
QQQ just dropped 35 cents like a bad habit and continues to decline. Currently 24.22.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  8:54:30 AM
Yields have taken on a bit of water, with FVX -.9 bps, TNX -1.4 bps and TYX -1 bps. Little direction so far, and it looks to be shaping up for a flat open so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  8:39:08 AM
From CNNfn:

The Commerce Department said personal income rose 0.4 percent in December while personal spending rose 0.9 percent. Economists, on average, expected income to rise 0.2 percent and spending to rise 0.7 percent, according to Briefing.com.

The news isn't making waves yet, with bond yields flat to mixed and QQQ trading 24.55 now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   1/31/03,  8:13:54 AM
The US Dollar has been drifting since getting sold off yesterday afternoon, currently trading below 99.60. Gold has remained above 370 all night. The futures have been green after selling off yesterday afternoon and the miraculous save in the Nikkei. Currently QQQ is trading 24.52, down .02 from the close but well up from the 24.26 or so that I saw in afterhours trading last night. NDX futures are trading at 987, SPX 843.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   1/31/03,  8:09:26 AM
Good morning! The good news is that the Nikkei closed up 0.3% today, the first day this week that it's closed in positive territory. The bad news is that it first touched a twenty-year low before rebounding. Two economic reports contributed to the early fall in the Nikkei. One pegged the jobless rate at 5.5%, worse than the expected 5.4% estimate and worse than November's 5.3% number. Another report indicated that, in December, wage-earner spending fell 3.5% from the same period a year ago. Of interest to those watching the semi-conductor industry was NEC's earnings report, which included lowered forecasts fro the full year.

Troubled by rising oil costs, the dollar's decline, and war fears, most European markets traded in the red today. Perhaps yesterday's decline in U.S. equities also affected European trading. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had fallen .46%, the CAC 40 had fallen .81%, and the DAX had fallen .70%. A euro-zone consumer confidence number dipped to its lowest levels in almost six years, Bloomberg reported this morning. Insurers continue to sell equities, with two major European insurers now facing cuts in their debt ratings.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   1/31/03,  2:27:06 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   1/31/03,  2:26:59 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   1/31/03,  2:26:51 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   1/31/03,  2:26:01 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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