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  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  6:05:27 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow. Note: Column labeled "Points from Pivot" depict price from either DAILY, WEEKL or MONTHLY pivot as it relates to Today's closing value. Link

Example: For WEEKLY table, Dow Industrials close for today was 8,109.82 and has the Dow 68-points above the WEEKLY pivot of 8,042. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) close of 987.07 is 4-points below its weekly pivot of 991.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  4:02:33 PM
Currently at 33.98, the VIX remains just above its simple and exponential 200-dma's at 33.46 and 32.73, respectively.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  3:55:30 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  3:51:20 PM
On the OEX five-minute charts, we've now seen a test and failure of the former support line of the regression channel that was containing the OEX movements. On the 60-minute charts, the 21(3)3 stochastics have now flattened at the 74.50 level.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  3:50:38 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Those rallies just topped out right at the 5 min. 50-pma in the Dow/OEX/SPX before rolling over, and a 5 min close above that level would indicate a run higher into the close.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  3:48:07 PM
CCMP $43.08 (-0.82) The SOX remains close to unchanged on the day, but OI put play CCMP continues its slide below Friday's bounce level following the AMAT warning. I expect the next level of support to come in the $41-$42 range, but we'll need a bigger sell-off in the SOX to get rolling through that support toward our $35 target.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/3/03,  3:42:06 PM
Jeff, what just happened to Expedia (EXPE)? It just lost over 0.50 in about one minute, down to 60.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  3:36:53 PM
"most" of the time the put/call ratio is a good contrary indicator, but is it possible they are "front-running" some negative surprise forthcoming?

Yes. This is why many prefer to take a 13 day or 21 day simple moving average instead.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  3:34:32 PM
The latest put to call ratio dropped to 1.15. I'm not a fan of these high readings given my bearish positions, so am watching closely. Interestingly, the COMPX is right back to where it started today, +2.62. The TRINQ is .68 and the TICK.NQ has deteriorated to -230. As Linda points out, is still light despite the reversal of fortune on the indices today, with NYSE volume now 1.26B and COMPX volume 1.04B.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  3:29:01 PM
Volume patterns haven't changed as much as I expected with this whoosh down in the last thirty minutes. Advancers remain slightly ahead of decliners on the NYSE and decliners remain slightly ahead of advancers on the Nasdaq. One interesting note is that new highs are twice new lows on the NYSE, although new lows still outnumber new highs on the Nasdaq. Volume stands at 930 million on the NYSE and just over a billion on the Nasdaq--a weak volume day so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  3:25:10 PM
On the five-minute OEX charts, 433.75 appears to be a pivotal level (not in the terms of official pivot analysis, but historically) for the OEX over the last three trading days. A move below that level would be bearish. The 21(3)3 hourly stochastics are now trying to roll again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  3:17:00 PM
As Jonathan mentioned with the COMPX earlier, I'm seeing a downside break of the regression channel that's been containing OEX prices today, with the OEX now perhaps moving back up to test the former supporting line of that regression channel. All day, I've felt it within the realm of possibility that 440 might be tested and I still don't rule out that possibility, but the OEX keeps falling beneath former support lines and then following those former supporting lines up, not able to push back above them. While I don't rule out those higher prices yet, so far this doesn't look bullish for the intermediate term.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  3:16:47 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We saw a pretty steep fade (in a realative sense) after breaking the 50-pmas that had indicated support all day on the 5 min charts, about 15 minutes ago. We still remain above the mid-morning bounce levels and I'll be watching the 50-pma line for signs of resistance. Those levels are now descending and come in at Dow 8118, SPX 860.82, OEX 435.78. Current levels: Dow 8100/SPX 859.42/ OEX 435.21/COMP 1325

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  3:08:19 PM
The put to call ratio has just reached 1.16. This looks bullish to me. However, most analysts follow the moving average in making longer term calls. At the very least, bears should remain cautious and be ready in case a sudden bounce surprises us. I have resistance now at 1330, 1334 and 1340 COMPX. The TRINQ has risen to a still neutral .72, TICK.NQ -204, and QQV falling to 39.80, +.16 on the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  3:07:42 PM
On Friday, CSCO fell beneath an ascending line that had been supporting prices since December 18. Today, CSCO has several times tested that line and the resistance has held. That line now crosses at 13.82. Currently trading at 13.54, CSCO trades just below its simple 200-dma. Reminder: CSCO reports earnings tomorrow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  3:00:13 PM
We could be seeing our downside trendline break here, but it's early to tell. There will be confirmation of the move with a violation of 1319 COMPX, 7 points away.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  2:58:19 PM
NVIDIA (NVDA) $10.57 +2.51% ... stock recovers from early-afternoon dip to $10.44 on a heavy volume trade of 357K at approx. 01:45 PM EST. At a Thomas Weisel Partners technology conference, NVIDIA's CFO was undertain about what volume of its graphic chips Microsoft would order, saying "How much they are going to order in the first quarter is up in the air." MSFT and NVDA are currently in arbitration over the prices MSFT pays for graphic chips it buys for the Xbox and the volume in which those chips are produced. NVDA has said in the past that it could be forced to produce the chips at a loss if it loses arbitration, which is expected to conclude this year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  2:51:49 PM
Daimler/Chrysler (DCX) $31.50 +2.9% ... January U.S. auto sales fell 12%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  2:51:00 PM
General Motors (GM) $36.85 +1.43% ... January U.S. auto sales fell 2%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  2:50:58 PM
So far, neither the SOX nor the SMH has managed to stay above the tops of their respective gaps from late last week. This appears somewhat bearish action, although confirmation would not come until they trade below the lower limits of those gaps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  2:44:58 PM
Currently measuring 372.15, the Russell 2000 trades flat, down a minimal $0.02. Although it's somewhat bearish that the Russell has been consolidating and not moving up while the daily stochastics rise, the weekly chart shows one danger signal to bears. Last week's candle was a spring whose tail moved below the September 2001 support at 373.62. Prices then moved up just below that former support to close the week at 372.17, leaving a tail or a lower shadow that formed the spring. Some consider a spring a test of bearish strength and feel that the tail shows that the bears might be losing strength. It's somewhat difficult to interpret this candle, however, since it closed just beneath that September 2001 support and since today's prices trade mostly beneath the real body of that spring. We'll have to wait until the close of this week's trading to know whether bears might be losing strength, but continued trading beneath the real body of the spring might negate its bullish potential.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  2:40:28 PM
The put to call ratio has just printed .98, which I'd characterize as a bullish reading. The TRINQ is low at .59 but could move much lower. Resistance is at the day highs at 1334, then 1340, then 1350. Bears should be careful and watch their stops.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  2:29:53 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We continue to test the upper end of today's range, which looks bullish to me. I am not confident that the 1/2 short position will be profitable by today's close and I'm looking for a rollover from resistance over the next couple of days. The Dow is once again over 8150 with the OEX at daily highs and the SPX just below

Current levels: Dow 8151/OEX 437.90/SPX 864.29/COMP 1332

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  2:23:06 PM
The flag within a wedge continues, and I'm becoming less confident as to the downside resolution on the break, given that the put to call ratio has risen to .85. Volume is still weak, which is bearish, and the TRINQ continues to show net buying pressure at .51. The TICK.NQ is positive at +145, and the FVX is showing selling in the five year treasury at +4.8 bps for the day.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  2:19:04 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We continue to see the Dow/SPX/OEX all bounce from the rising 50-pma on the 5 min. charts. The Dow has seen a couple of candles test a breakdown but no closes below it. The OEX continues to bounce above it, with no breakthroughs. The SPX has broken on a couple of occasions, but also maintained the closes above the line. The R1s are also in the reaer view mirror, although Dow 8150, SPX 865 and OEX 438 all remain significant intraday resistance levels.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/3/03,  2:11:53 PM
CEPH $47.58 (+1.05) New OI Put play CEPH was due for a rebound, as we pointed out over the weekend, and with the fairly bullish action in the broad markets this morning, that bounce arrived right at the open. The stock soared in the early going up to the $48 level before fadeing back under the $47 level. Since then, it has been gradually working its way higher and in the past half hour has regained the $47.60 level, which provided resistance this morning. Once again, the bears are sharpening their claws, and as I've been typing, the stock has been sliding a bit lower, as resistance appears to be holding again. Aggressive traders may want to use these failures near resistance as an opportunity to enter the play, although the candle pattern for the day does cause some concern. After breaking Friday's low and then fractionally taking out Friday's high this morning (by a penny), we have the possibility of an engulfing pattern, if the bulls can battle back towards the highs of the day. If successful, then I would have to characterize it as a possible reversal pattern, and would want to stand aside to see if the $48 level holds as resistance before entering. The real test of course will come on a test of the 200-dma, whih is just below $49 today. That's a strong level of resistance following last week's breakdown, and I still expect it to offer strong resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  2:09:14 PM
As I was afraid they might do, those 21(3)3 hourly stochastics on the OEX chart redrew themselves as the OEX tested resistance. The short and fast lines still touch, but the bearish kiss has been redrawn and the lines slant upward again. The 5(3)3 hourly stochastics have flatlined and are difficult to interpret.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  1:57:21 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/3/03,  1:57:15 PM
SYMC $47.47 (+0.79) After clearing the $47 level this morning, SYMC proceeded to pull back, just as I thought it might, but there sure wasn't much downside conviction. The bulls stepped in to support the price near $46.50 (the site of friday's afternoon lows) and has since been propelled significantly higher, now doing battle with the $47.50 level. The next major obstacle to focus on will be mid-January high of $48.30. Traders looking for entries into the play from here will now want to focus on rebounds from support in the $46.50-47.00 area, as broken resistance should now function as support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  1:48:20 PM
Volume patterns now show more decliners than advancers on the Nasdaq, with a .89 ratio, but the NYSE still shows more advancers, with a 1.34 ratio. Up volume remains ahead of down volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, with up volume 1.37 times down volume on the NYSE and 1.61 times down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  1:44:45 PM
The upper trendline is being challenged on this push upward, but it has yet to complete. Recall that candles can spike and "undraw" themselves. Next resistance if this move holds will be at the day highs, then at 1340 COMPX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  1:37:15 PM
Volume is quite light on the indices, with NYSE volume just 883M and COMPX 776M.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  1:35:40 PM
The put to call ratio has just printed .75 for this past half hour. The other indicators I follow are unchanged since the previous update, with COMPX price remaining within their trendlines on the 15 minute chart.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  1:24:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
If we take a minute to look at the point and figure charts, we see 3 & 4 box reversals into columns of "X" in the Dow, SPX and OEX. The last reversal was short-lived and gave us a shorting opportunity. The Dow has exceeded its last reversal up by one box with the trade of 8150 this morning, while the OEX saw its last "X" top at 440 and the SPX at 865.

If we were to get another reversal down, the next sell signals would come at 422.50 (double bottom), 7900 (triple bottom), SPX 840 (triple bottom).

The Dow trade at 8150 gives a buy signal, but the SPX buy signal does not come until 870 and the OEX at 442.50. The last buy signals we got were back when the Dow broke 8850 and it led to a quick rollover.

Bullish percents as of Friday's close were all still sinking.

Current levels: Dow 8130/SPX 861.64/OEX 436.03/COMP 1329

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  1:23:54 PM
On that coiling wedge, I see upper resistance around 1331 COMPX. Lower support is perhaps 1327. I'm trying not to hurt my eyes squinting so hard, but bottom line is that the move should be occuring shortly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  1:15:32 PM
On the 60-minute OEX charts, 5(3)3 stochastics are rolling, with bearish divergence showing up in the form of equal stochastics highs but lower price highs. On the same 60-minute OEX chart, longer-term 21(3)3 stochastics have made a bearish kiss, beginning to roll underneath overbought levels. A bearish kiss can be redrawn, but this signals potential weakness.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  1:11:23 PM
Zooming out to the 30 minute COMPX candles, price seems to be coiling into a wedge, and our bear flag is sharing the lower ascending trendline on it. I expect a downside break, given the bear flag within a neutral wedge, which is itself a continuation pattern. Price continues to stick to the lower trendline. The put to call ratio has lowered to .75, the TRINQ is neutral at .60, TICK.NQ favoring declining issues at -121. The FVX is +2.8 bps on the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  12:38:15 PM
The latest put to call reading of .76 shows the same neutral amount of bullish speculation as the COMPX continues to inch its way slowly up the lower trendline of the bear flag. Note that the QQV and VXN are still in positive territory, with QQV +.51 and VXN +.45. There's still a whiff of fear in the COMPX and the NDX. I continue to watch the bear flag on the 10 minute COMPX candles for signs of near term direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  12:37:56 PM
Another fish-that-got-away story: I sure thought I had an alert set for OSUR once it traded over its 200-dma's, just at 6.00. When Orasure was first listed as a covered-call candidate back in October or November, I had noticed that the weekly chart showed a potential for a reverse H&S formation, with the left shoulder and head already being completed at that time. Not wanting to risk a fall down as the right shoulder was formed, I had waited for the expected fall. That did happen and the right shoulder began forming nicely. Last week, I thought I'd set an alert so that I could enter a call or covered call position as OSUR moved above its 200-dma's. I apparently didn't set the alert I'd thought I'd set, however, and missed my opportunity on Friday. Link Is it too late to enter on a call play? Lately, playing breakouts hasn't been a good idea, as witnessed by the Valero Energy play in December on similar technicals. My original intention had been to enter an OSUR position on a move above the 200-dma's and then sell before the neckline, standing aside during the expected consolidation once the stock reached those levels. Stochastics now show overbought levels across both weekly and daily time spans. Under current market conditions, it's probably better to risk losing an opportunity to participate in further gains than it is to take a position and be stuck in it while OSUR consolidates and the stochastics cycle back down. Under different market conditions, this might make an ideal play. Buying a breakout in late 1999 was a great idea, for example. Technical analysis is important, but so is understanding the current market climate. I'll continue to watch OSUR for a new entry.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  12:30:28 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Not a whole lot of action, but the 5 min chart is showing a consistent uptrand since bouncing off that 50-pma at 8081 almost an hour ago. Now that our morning data is out, the trend could indicate a move back toward the highs of the day. Yields are still green in the 5,10,30 yr notes.

Current levels: Dow 8110/SPX 859.41/OEX 434.95/COMP 1326/QQQ 24.60/RUT (still red) 371.73

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  12:23:34 PM
Ford (F) $9.25 +1.53% .... Ford January U.S. sales rise 4.1%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  12:19:52 PM
The CBOE corrected its put to call information for the previous reading, so the past hour was at .77 and lastly at .81. The TRINQ and TICK.NQ are neutral, .61 and -27 respectively. The five year yield has faded down to its opening level, +2.9 bps on the day. Precious metals are recovering some of their losses, HUI -.93 and XAU -.29 on the day. The COMPX is right on lower ascending trendline support from the bear flag at 1326.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  12:18:20 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I was about to comment on the VIX when Linda's post popped up. The last surge in equities drove the VIX lower after finding support at 34.50 for most of the morning. More importantly it has also broken below support at 35. While many traders use the VIX as a contrarian indicator, I think the move below support is bullish. I'm interested in seeing how we close, but we are below all of last week's intraday lows in that index. It may also simply be suggesting a rangebound market, but I'm takng it as a bullish sign right now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  12:16:17 PM
I note today that the SMH has edged back into its gap from Thursday's close to Friday's open, and the SOX threatens to do so. Bullish traders want to see the SOX and SMH stay above their gaps while bearish trades want to see the SOX and SMH moved down into the gaps and even trade below them. The moves into the gaps have been tentative so far.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/3/03,  12:10:25 PM
For those wondering, I have been in the Futures Monitor this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  12:07:12 PM
The VIX took a hit this morning and currently measures 34.23. Mark Phillips and others wrote about the VIX this weekend and probably will make some comments on its action today, but I wanted to note that the simple 200-dma lies just below at 33.45 and the exponential 200-dma is just below that at 32.73. Other MA's are grouped near this area, showing the importance of that 30-34 area. Historical support lies in this area, also.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  12:01:48 PM
EchoStar (DISH) $25.44 -1.96% .... stock turning rather defensive in last 5-minutes. I see no news to explain the action, but one might wonder if it has anything to do with "satellites in space" and this weekend's Columbia tragedy.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  11:55:24 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  11:50:42 AM
Jonathan is right about the alternative interpretation of the chart I posted. Actually, on my own charts, I had both the bear flag and the bearish rising wedge marked out, but thought it might be too confusing to post a chart with both indicated. It was interesting to see how prices had followed that former supporting line from the bearish rising wedge, too. Sometimes what seems to be bullish action may not be as healthy as it appears on the surface. However, I still do not discount the possibility that the OEX could rise along the bottom of that former support (and within the bear flag channel) to retest resistance near or just above 440.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  11:47:03 AM
Two Dow stocks with more than $1 movement, both positive: EK +1.18, UTX +1.51. Not seeing a whole lot of conviction, but we are up on the day. I'm looking at some lower highs on the 5 min chart, and the last bounce came from the 50-pma on that chart, as well (8079 50-pma (5 min) v. 8081 low). The 50-pma is rising and now sits at 8082.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  11:41:47 AM
The US Dollar Index has just been hammered from just below 100.20 to 99.89.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  11:37:16 AM
The CBOE put to call ratio has printed its last two readings at .83. This is slightly above the 21 DMA in the upper mid .70s, and looks neutral to me.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  11:30:50 AM
The alternate interpretation of Linda's chart is as a bear flag, or, better yet, a bearish rising wedge within a bear flag. This is what I'm watching on the COMPX chart. The result is in each case the same, as both are "unhealthy" setups in which price climbs, but ultimately projects downward. The COMPX is just approaching support, and again, 1319 looks like the bottom end trendline support on this formation. Upper resistance is... you guessed it, 1340.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  11:30:00 AM
After achieving a day's high of 13.80, CSCO now pulls back to retest its simple 200-dma, currently at 13.56. As I mentioned earlier, it may not be as useful to watch CSCO today as it could be on other days, since expectations due to its earnings report tomorrow may be distorting its behavior.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  11:24:21 AM
Here's what's been happening today on the OEX with respect to that broken support from Friday's bearish rising wedge. So far, the OEX has been rising along the underside of that former support line. Although it has currently fallen away from that resistance, I'm not sure the battle is over yet. With positive volume patterns, higher bond yields, a higher dollar, and a much lower VIX, I wouldn't be surprised to see another assault at higher resistance (as the former support line is climbing during the day). The chart is a five-minute chart. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  11:11:13 AM
Adv/dec figures show more advancing issues on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, with 1.6 and 1.1 ratios, respectively. Up/down volume shows higher up volume, too, with ratios being 1.8 and 2.06, respectively. On the NYSE, new highs outnumber new lows by 38:14, but new highs fall below new lows on the Nasdaq, by a 33:42 ratio.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  11:10:14 AM
The COMPX is back for another test of 1328. A bounce from this level will give us a higher low on the 15 minute chart, which would not be bearish. The TRINQ has risen to .65, TICK.NQ down to -276.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  11:06:25 AM
I really respect your opinion particularly on GG. As you know its been downgraded terribly. One firm's target is $9. Are they seeing something that I do not see.

My respect for brokerages' upgrades and downgrades is subterranean. I don't trust either their integrity or their ability. That's just my opinion, and no doubt others will differ. However, with charts at our disposal, there's no need to wonder. The daily chart on GG shows price just below strong resistance at 12.50 to 13.00. However, first support is just below at 11.88, then at 11.10-11.45. The oscillators show no buy signals, with the MacD and Stochastics in bear rolls. Then again, there's been less corresponding drop in price, which is actually a bullish sign. Nevertheless, I wouldn't be adding to the position here. Better to wait for a test of support coinciding with reversals on the daily MacD and Stoch, or on a breakout of 1300, to be safe.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  11:01:34 AM
NYSE observing 2-minutes of silence in memory of Space Shuttle Columbia astronauts.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  11:01:04 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were triggered on the 1/4 short position when the Dow traded 8125 at 10:55. This now gives us a 1/2 short position total. Stops are set at Dow 8230, but conservative traders can set above last week's highs at Dow 8158/OEX 868.72/OEX 440.16/COMP 1363.

As I have continuously mentioned, this entry is in the HIGH RISK category, taking into account earnings and geo-political concerns.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  10:58:02 AM
Yields are off their day highs, with FVX +4.6 bps currently. There's selling in precious metals, with HUI -1.57 and XAU -.75. Commodities are showing mostly red, with the CRB index down .67% to 246.79- exceptions are in natural gas, coffee, wheat, cotton, gold and platinum.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  10:54:52 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We pulled back from last week's high in the Dow, without breaking through and I'm once again considering adding to the short. We did not approach those highs as closely in the SPX/OEX/COMP. This is strictly as resistance play in what I consider a downward trending market. Conservative traders who enter along with me can set their stops just abvoe last week's highs in their respective index. I'm going to leave my stop at Dow 8230, but more aggressive traders can allow for a bounce all the way to previous support at 8300

Go short a 1/4 position at Dow 8125. This steps us up to a 1/2 short position on the recent bounce at an average of Dow 8077.50

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/3/03,  10:52:23 AM
SYMC $47.15 (+0.47) Finally! After banging into the $47 resistance level on numerous occasions last week, the bulls are taking advantage of the broad market strength today to push through that level this morning. While this is a constructive bullish move, I really don't favor new momentum longs here, with more resistance looming just overhead between here and the $48.30 level. Trading an upside breakout in an overall weak market is an aggressive strategy. The better approach will be to wait for the next intraday dip and bounce at a higher low than that seen last week near the $45 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  10:45:25 AM
The put to call ratio has risen to .62, as price on the COMPX has risen to 1334. The TRINQ at .48 is healthier than it was at .34, while the TICK.NQ continues to show a slight bullish bias at +76. FVX is now +5.7 bps. Are investors bailing out of bonds and into equities on last night's news? Could well be, but so far this is a small bounce. 1340 COMPX is decent resistance and 1350 is strong resistance. We'll see how it does at those levels, if it gets that high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  10:43:06 AM
I've had trouble accessing charts on Q-charts this morning, but once I could get the charts running again, I notice that both 5(3)3 and 21(3)3 stochastics have turned back up on the 60-minute OEX chart. The 5(3)3's are already in levels indicating overbought conditions, but the 21(3)3's still have some distance to go. On Friday afternoon, the OEX had fallen out of an ascending wedge shape I'd noted on my chart and had then retested and failed from the former supporting lower line of that wedge. It's coming back up to test that former support line again, and should cross it near 439, just below the 440 resistance.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  10:34:19 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We got a move to new session highs, yet another higher intraday high, but still below last week's top.

Current levels: Dow 8141/SPX 863.77/OEX 437.04/COMP 1332

Last week's highs were Dow 8158/SPX 868.72/OEX 440.16/COMP 1363

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  10:18:52 AM
After dissecting the ISM numbers, it appears that the new orders component slipped from December's 62.9% to a January number of 59.7%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  10:18:39 AM
Boots&Coots (AMEX:WEL) $0.51 -3.7% .... after Friday's after-close of potential "default" stock has battled back close to Friday's close.

Again,.... those holding long with RISK CAPITAL ONLY can either take exit here, or continue to hold. In my mind, stocks that trade below $5.00 (penny stocks) don't have "solid" fundamentals and should be deemed HIGH RISK.

I would keep Friday's news in mind, just in case scenario of Iraq implementing a "scortched earth" policy does build, and "substantial" gain of 100% in WEL is found, which would have trader at least taking 1/2 of position off the table, and removing initial capital at risk.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  10:18:29 AM
The COMPX has made it over 1328 and is now testing that s/r level from the upside. This doesn't look like a "clean" break to me, but if it is, we'll watch 1340 as the next resistance zone.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  10:17:28 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are back at the top of last week's range, which saw a high of Dow 8158. I am tempted to enter another 1/4 position short here in front of resistance, however, we are seeing mostly bullish signs and it would be considered an aggressive trade, but still only moves us up to a 1/2 short position. Note today's high in the Dow so far has come right at the 50% retracement of the Aug-Oct slide at 8137. Right now we have yet to see anything but a higher intraday high and higher intraday low, so I'll be looking for a break in that pattern to add to the position.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  10:10:24 AM
Currently trading at 13.66, CSCO moved back above its simple 200-dma at 13.57. Although I've been monitoring this bellwether stock for signs of general market weakness or strength, I'm not sure whether that's a useful exercise today ahead of its earnings report tomorrow. Momentum players may distort the stock's behavior.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  10:10:17 AM
ISM Index 53.9 for January, which was slightly above consensus of 53.0, but a fraction below December's 54.7. January's 53.9 dispels some theories regarding December's 54.7 reading being exaggerated. While January's number doesn't show "boom" in manufacturing sector, growth is present.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  10:08:09 AM
The put to call ratio has come in at .51 for the first half hour, which is a bearish reading- too many call trades, too much bullish speculation. The TRINQ is at .37, TICK.NQ +34. FVX now up 2.6 bps, TNX +1.7 and TYX flat.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  10:05:58 AM
ISM at 53.9 vs. 55.2 in December.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  10:05:49 AM
Construction Spending was +1.2% and well above the 0.3% consensus. November's previously reported +0.3% was revised higher to a final +0.9%.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  10:05:25 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We got another boost off the ISM data and let's keep our eye on daily (8122) and weekly (8167) R1s.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  10:05:19 AM
ISM manufacturing index slips to 53.9 in January from 55.2 in December, below forecast.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  10:00:55 AM
The fed has announced an overnight repo of 3.75B for a net drain of 2B today.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/3/03,  9:58:32 AM
Note: There will be the January ISM report out at 10:00 a.m. Expectations are for a fall to 54 from 55.2, month prior. New orders is also expected to fall after December's +10.5 rise.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  9:54:24 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Dow/SPX/OEX still up slightly, but COMP/NDX now slightly red, as is the Russell (RUT).

Current levels: Dow 8080/SPX 857.03/OEX 433.46/COMP 1319/RUT 371.34

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  9:53:51 AM
Accredo Health (ACDO) $29.40 ... Link leading percentage loser in this morning's action after company reports earnings that beat estimates by a penny, but revises 2003 revenue outlook to $1.40-$1.45 billion, which is below previous guidance of $1.45-$1.50. Company confirmed 2003 EPS guidance of $1.33-$1.38 versus consensus estimates of $1.37.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/3/03,  9:48:37 AM
Pivot Matrix With today's pivots.Link

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  9:45:40 AM
Swing Trade Signals
we set our opening range on a bullish move higher, with confirmation coming from bonds in higher yields. The opening range failed just below the daily R1 levels, so we'll have to keep those on the radar screen. After initially finding support at Dow 8100, the average fell back below that level. The TICK and ADV/DEC are both negative, and the U.S. Dollar Index is back over 100, although trading off its highs. So far signs are bullish, but not as much so as they were a few mintues ago.

Current levels: Dow 8092/SPX 858.68/OEX 434.43/COMP 1323.77

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  9:41:48 AM
The COMPX is back to its range between 1319 support and 1328 resistance. The TRINQ at .62 and TICK.NQ -116 leaves room to move in either direction. I believe my quotes for bond yields are stuck, unless they've achieved perfect equilibrium for the past hour.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   2/3/03,  9:34:05 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  9:31:42 AM
4 point gap up open to 1324 COMPX, TRINQ .55, TICK.NQ -87, QQV +1.71 to 41.35.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/3/03,  9:23:20 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currently short a 1/4 position only in the broader markets, with a stop at Dow 8230.

We have seen a big technical breakdown over the last couple of weeks, but the end of last week amounted to mostly churning, in spite of the wide intraday ranges. I do not plan on doing anything prior to the ISM report at 10:00. If the Chicago PMI number is any indication, it could come in above expectations. With Cisco's numbers tomorrow and Colin Powell talking to the UN Wednesday, as well as the shuttle disaster over the weekend, the current environment is difficult to play. However, I believe the overall trend is still down. That being said I am only risking a small position at the moment and will require strong evidence of renewed bearishness to add to it.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/3/03,  9:10:54 AM
Speaking of business as usual, has anyone else taken a look at the bond indices this morning? I've got charts up on TYX.X (30-year), TNX.X (10-year), FVX.X (5-year) and it appears there is something wrong. While they all gapped up at the open about 45 minutes ago, they haven't moved at all, trading perfectly flat at 48.70, 40.03 and 29.85 respectively. Was there a symbol change and I missed the meeting?

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/3/03,  9:07:47 AM
I want to extend my thanks to Linda and Jonathan for saying what needs to be said about the tragedy over the weekend. After spending better than 10 years in my first career at NASA, the loss of another shuttle has had a profound affect on me. It is a stark reminder of the risks that each of those who were lost, understood all too well. It is with a heavy heart that I return to business as usual this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  9:00:14 AM
While the FTSE 100 has added to its gains, now up 2.65% on the day, the CAC 40 moved off its highs but still trades up .49%. The DAX threatens to fall into negative territory, trading up only 1.90, 0.07%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  8:48:49 AM
Indeed, bonds are selling, with TYX +2.8 bps, TNX +2.8 bps, and TYX +2.3 bps. This will be a problem for Al Green, who has 5.75B in weekend repos expiring. Remember Governor Bernanke's comments about keep a lid on the TYX? Well, bonds selling off doesn't fit with the plan. I'd therefore expect any fresh repos today to head into treasuries. But we'll have to see.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  8:43:31 AM
I'm hearing reports this morning that bonds, and especially the ten-year bond, may be declining due to the government's rumored plan to introduce more supply to pay off our accruing debt.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/3/03,  8:37:27 AM
Business first: The US Dollar Index has levitated to just below 100.20. It continues to amaze me that the markets still listen to Japanese authorities, who last night discussed aggressively devaluing the yen. Every few months we see one of these operations, and it usually moves the market and then gets forgotten. Remember when they were going to aggressively buy stocks and support the markets? In any event, that seems to be what has happened last night. Gold is just above 369/oz, while futures are up, with QQQ trading 24.62, NDX 990, SPX 859.30.

I too wanted to express my sadness at the tragic loss of our astronauts. Like many, I've been a fan of the space program since I was little, and a fervent reader of The Right Stuff and others. The courage of those who risk their lives for science, their fellow humans, and their country is beyond measure. I'm reflecting on them, and on the soldiers who have recently been called to duty, and their brave families. My heart is with you.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/3/03,  7:22:11 AM
I offer a somber good morning to readers this morning. Those of us living in the Dallas and East Texas areas join the rest of our nation, India, and Israel in mourning the losses of our astronauts. Traveling from Houston back home to Dallas yesterday required driving past roped-off sites where shuttle debris fell along Highway 45. It seems crass to get back to business as usual this morning, but readers who have money invested in these markets must prepare for the trading day, and we have a responsibility to offer commentary.

After trading below 8300 in early trading, the Nikkei had moved into positive territory by the close of the first hour of trading and closed up 1.93% at 8500.79. This was the Nikkei's strongest two-day performance in five weeks, Bloomberg television commentators mentioned today. Honda raised guidance the current year to 430 billion yen from an earlier forecast of 410 billion yen, and said North American sales would jump 11 percent. Other exporters rose as the yen dropped in value against the dollar. Zembei Mizoguchi, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, admitted that the government was considering massive sales of the yen in hopes to moderate its recent rise against the dollar.

European markets also rose today. U.K. insurers led the rise in the FTSE 100 after the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority agreed to let companies seek waivers from the reserve requirements to be held against potential claims. Other equities may benefit as the insurers ease up on the recent selling of equities to maintain those reserves. I'm always a bit skeptical when a formerly downtrodden sector suddenly leads a market gain, and suspect short-covering as at least one reason behind the rise. In this case, however, it remains to be seen whether this change in the rules governing these companies might have more lasting benefits to these companies and also to other equities that might have been sold to maintain those reserves. In Germany, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democratic Party lost important regional elections, eroding support for Schroeder's unpopular plans to raise taxes. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 had risen 2.55%, the CAC 40 had risen .92%, and the DAX had risen .67%.

Company-specific news that might be of interest relates to Ericsson AB. After reporting a net loss of 8.3 billion kronor, much more than the forecasted 4.53 billion kronor, the stock dropped 12%. Ericsson is the world's largest marker of mobile-phone networks, according to Bloomberg.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   2/2/03,  1:38:49 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/2/03,  1:38:34 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   2/2/03,  1:38:23 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   2/2/03,  1:37:32 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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