Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  3:47:26 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I am going to leave my stop at 8170 for the moment. That may change, but I think that is still the most daunting upside level just above. However, I think there are other logical stop possibilities for traders to use depending on their risk tolerances.

1. 8055 - just above the recent highs and above 8050, which would be a PnF reversal back up into a column of "X"

2. 7910 - A move over this afternoon's bounce high at 7900.81. If 7900 fails to act as resistance, we may be in store for another run at 8000

3. Take a small profit now - we are seeing some pretty wide intraday swings and there is a profit of just over 100 Dow points on two of the three entries. Today it swung in our favor, but given the geo-political environment, there is no guarantee we won't head back in the other direction tomorrow.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  3:39:56 PM
Ari Fleisher has pointed out that the issue with Iraq is about weapons and not debates, and though I expected that pearl to provide some confidence to the markets, I was mistaken. The COMPX seems to be struggling with 1328/ QQQ 24.89. The TRINQ at 1.14 is one of the highest readings we've seen today, with the TRINQ at -450.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  3:22:48 PM
LOL Steven!

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  3:21:39 PM
Maria (CNBC) just said Dan Rather interviewed Saddam, who said he would not destroy his missles and challenged President Bush to a debate. Maybe he has his sights set on the 2004 election (GRIN)

 
 
  Kent Barton   2/24/03,  3:11:49 PM
The negative news from FD, JCP, and WMT has pushed Nordstrom (JWN) down to new multi-month lows. The Premier Investor bearish play is showing a gain of roughly 7.5% from our entry point at $17.98. Short-term or conservative traders might want to think about taking some profits if shares rebound from current levels. Others could protect a gain of 5.0%-5.5% by placing a stop slightly over $17.00. We'll probably be giving JWN some additional breathing room with a stop above Friday's high of $17.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  3:06:13 PM
The COMPX has gained the 4 points necessary off the 1324 lows to bring it up against 1328 resistance, with QQQ at 24.86. The TRINQ is still in bullish territory, TICK.NQ negative, and FVX -4.4 bps. Once again we've watched a slight decline that took almost all day to complete, and the possibility of a quick ramp to erase the losses. So far, resistance is holding, but bears are no doubt antsy at the prospect of another last hour ramp job, such as we've seen all last week. QQV is +.32, VXN -.80.

 
 
  Kent Barton   2/24/03,  3:01:45 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  2:51:35 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We took out the day's lows and shot straight up from there. The bond market is still open and we did manage to take out early morning lows in the 5 and ten year yields. The ten year yield, however, did bounce strongly from the mid-morning low and has been moving sideways. it is on the way up and could signal another run at 7900 in the Dow.

Current levels: Dow 7884/ SPX 835.41/OEX 422.97/COMP 1328

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/24/03,  2:48:56 PM
Oil Stocks I got an interesting email today from a reader asking about the IYE Energy sector iShare. The reader was wondering about a short-term bullish play in the sector, given the bullish picture portrayed on the IYE PnF chart. I looked at the PnF chart and didn't see anything bullish to get my interest. Here's the link. Link

Actually, I'm not a fan of playing the Oil patch using sector funds because of the poor manner in which many of the big oil conglomerates are trading. XOM and CVX make up almost 50% of the IYE fund's holdings, and both stocks are trading near their lows, not their highs. My preferred approach would be to zero in on a couple of the stronger stocks in the sector.

Certain areas of the Oil sector are performing well and is probably good to continue working higher until hostilities break out in the mid-East. Just keep in mind that there is significant event risk in this area of the market right now. It is estimated that about $6-8 of the current price of Crude Oil is attributable to the war fear premium and if a peaceful solution were to materialize, we'd likely see a significant pullback in most of these stocks.

For what it's worth, I've been following APA and BJS lately. These stocks operate in the Oil sector of the market and have been performing quite well lately, although APA definitely is the stronger of the two. Check out the charts and you'll see what I mean:

APA - PnF Buy down at $63 and still going strong. Current vertical count is $78, with risk to a PnF Sell signal at $58. So that gives us reward to the bullish target of $12 and risk to the Sell signal of $8. Only about 1.5:1 risk/reward ratio, so doesn't get me too excited at these levels. But a pullback into the $62-63 area has possibilities. Link

BJS - Still working to generate a new PnF Buy signal, but getting close. Needs to print $36 to get the job done and generate confidence that it will continue to work towards its current vertical count of $50. Link

I still like the bullish prospects in this sector, but I wouldn't be interested in chasing these stocks higher. They've moved far enough to the upside that there is significant risk to the downside now, especially on some sort of peaceful solution to the Iraq situation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  2:42:40 PM
FVX has dropped to 2.80%, now down 5.1 bps, confirming the move lower. The COMPX has bounced from the 1324 h&s target, and I continue to watch last week's lows in the 1317 area for confirmation of the downside move in equities.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  2:26:35 PM
If 1350 COMPX was the top of a head and shoulders pattern on the 10 minute candle chart, with the neckline at 1337, then we've just seen the downside objective reached with the low print at 1324. A plunge through this level brings us to 1318-20 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  2:20:13 PM
I suspect that the upside breakouts in natural gas and oil futures could be spooking the transportation index, compounding the damage caused by the downgrades.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/24/03,  2:17:29 PM
As I mentioned in the 11:00am Intraday Update, the Transports are getting pummelled today after the Bear stearns downgrade of a fistful of trucking stocks. The $TRAN is now down to 2018, a mere 10 points above its October intraday low. If support near 2008 fails to hold, then the only other semblence of support that still exists is the Setp-2001 intraday low of 1942. Below that, the $TRAN has no historical support prior to the middle of 1997. Below the 1900 level, we then have to look out to the 1994-1996 timeframe to find support in the 1500-1800 area. If Linda was here, I'm sure she would chime in on the importance of the weakness in this area of the market and its implications for the broader indices. At any rate, it doesn't look good for the bulls here.

The fact that the VIX has only risen to about 36 confirms my view that despite the poor price action, complacency is keeping fear contained in the market...at least so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  2:07:09 PM
Natural gas continues to climb, and heating oil has just hit an all time high. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  2:01:50 PM
The fiscal y-t-d US budget deficit has just been announced at $97B.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  1:58:58 PM
Trimeris (TRMS) $44.12 (+0.58) OI call play TRMS continues to creep higher, in spite of broad market weakness. TRMS is focused on HIV treatment and some of today's boost may have come from the failure of VXGN's vaccine trial. I probably would not recommend new entries at this point, since we are approaching our profit target in the $45-46 range and we have bearish PnF resistance at $47. However, the stock still looks strong up to that point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  1:57:04 PM
The March '03 Natural Gas future is now up 33.91% to 8.85.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  1:52:21 PM
The US Embassy in New Delhi, India has warned Americans to stay away from major government buildings in the capitol city for fear of a terrorist attack.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  1:50:51 PM
The put to call ratio is steady as she goes at .63. Headed positions are still unwinding in the wake of opex week, I know... but that's a low p/c reading either way. And why shouldn't it be? The teflon COMPX has bounced from every visit to the low end of the this range for a week - even following a refinery explosion and fire. The market loves to break stride once the market begins to expect the next step- whether this will happen to the downside at the low end of the range or to the upside at the top is the only question at this point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  1:46:18 PM
Today is a very light volume day, with the COMPX at 724M shares traded and NYSE 884M.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/24/03,  1:45:03 PM
AMGN $53.66 (-0.94) Another entry point? Dropping with the rest of the market and the BTK index this morning, AMGN seems to be finding support near $53.50 as we exit the lunch-time lull. The stock's low of $53.40 came in just above the 10-dma ($53.30) and coindices nicely with the closing highs (now support) on January 23rd and February 11th. While showing weakness today, this could be a decent entry into the play for those that were waiting for a pullback after last week's breakout over the $54 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  1:42:36 PM
The COMPX has added 2 points in the past hour, and the TRINQ has dropped to .77, TICK.NQ rising to -154. FVX is still down 1.9 bps, but surprisingly, the COMEX-crush on gold was lighter today, with spot gold closed at 355.60/oz.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  1:34:23 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I'd really like to see some resistance in the Dow at 7900 on this bounce. If not, we could be in for another run at 8000. Those conservative traders who lowered stops to just above 7900 should be watching closely.

Current levels: Dow 7887/SPX 835.95/OEX 423.22/ COMP 1331

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  1:31:30 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Starting to get some bullish action here across the board. The SOX is back in positive territory, as well. Yields are bouncing, as well and the 5 and 10-year yields never took out the early morning lows. I really want to believe in a breakdown, but it will take a move below those morning lows to confirm anything truly bearish.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  1:12:46 PM
The COMPX has flatlined at 1329, QQQ 24.85. The TRINQ is still at .89, QQV +1.07 at 39.59, VXN -1.17, TICK.NQ -278. There is absolutely no fear in equities, and even FVX is rising, now -1.6 bps. Other than the move in precious metals and the CRB, and the decline in equities, this would look like a bullish day from the indicators.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  12:55:42 PM
I agree with Steven, as his comments apply to what I'm seeing on the COMPX as well. Meanwhile, natural gas is now up 27% today, with the CRB +1.14% to 250.92.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  12:51:46 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We are getting a bounce above Friday's lows of Dow 7854/SPX 831.48/OEX 421.03. Aggressive traders may want to think about adding to short positions if we roll over and get a decisive break below those levels (5-10 min close beneath).

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  12:34:12 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Conservative traders can think about a stop just above 7900. This will lock in a small gain on the position, and 7900 served as a tough level on the way down this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  12:31:36 PM
A rumor of an explosion at a DC highschool. This is an unconfirmed rumor only, could explain the sudden drop. Not as a good a source as the one last week from the trader with the police scanner.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  12:31:28 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The SPX is back below 835. This level is significant in that it registered a PnF reversal down on Friday, but only on the morning sell-off following the news of the Staten Island explosion. The fact that we were able to make it back down to that level today seems more bearish, as we have done it without a major news event.

Current levels: Dow 7863/OEX 421.79/SPX 833.21/COMP 1329

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  12:29:53 PM
There goes 1333 COMPX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  12:20:47 PM
The COMPX has just printed a new low at 1334, and is declining characteristically slowly into last week's range. Will another 10 minute bounce bring us back to a new high, as we've been seeing? No way to know, but tight stops remain the order of the day in this jumpy market. Gold continues higher but the mining indices HUI and XAU are not participating, pointing to more of a demand for the metals than for the miners. Either this is more global demand for gold, or buyers of gold are hedging with some HUI and XAU component shorts. The TRINQ remains bullish at .77, TICK.NQ bearish at -219, showing continued concentration of buying on the COMPX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  11:47:32 AM
The US Dollar Index is testing 99.80 support while the CRB adds to its gains, now +1.02% on the day.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  11:39:11 AM
If wondering, I am currently in the futures monitor.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  11:38:36 AM
Spot gold is now up 6.10/oz.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  11:32:17 AM
The COMPX at 1337 is telling us very little. It hasn't tanked but it hasn't rallied either, and last week's range seems to have reasserted itself. The FVX is still down -3.2 bps, and the President certainly managed to avoid providing any comfort to the markets, particularly when he said "the US is on the hunt" and will submit a new resolution to the UN security counsel today. TRINQ .82, TICK.NQ -169, HUI+1.22, XAU +1.0.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  11:32:03 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Looks like we've got a line in the sand with a low in the Dow of 7899. Look for a 5 min close below 7900 to signal another leg down. Right now back at 7900.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/24/03,  11:26:51 AM
CB $47.45 (-0.82) After rebounding from its lows on Friday, shares of OI Put play CB found resistance at $48.60 and then rolled over in the afternoon. That weakness has persisted this morning, with the stock once again below the $47.50 level. Continued weakness in the Insurance sector (IUX.X) as well as the Wachovia downgrade are continuing to weigh on the stock. Failed rallies continue to be the best way to enter the play, although momentum traders can target a break below the recent lows with a trade below $47, so long as the IUX continues to deteriorate. Note that the stop listed on the site is incorrect. Stops should be set at $50.75.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  11:03:01 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We seem to be in a holding pattern, but prior to the beginning of the President's speech, we were setting a a series of intraday higher lows. Our breakeven on the three 1/4 short entries (7884, 7994, 7989) is approx 7956. Conservative traders can lower stops to that level to protect positions if they so choose.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  10:57:38 AM
The commodities index, the CRB, has set a new 52 week high, currently at 250.11, +.81%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  10:47:01 AM
Investor optimism has hit an alltime low according to the UBS/Gallup Index. Given that the index was established in 1996, I'm not sure that this little headline will be gracing page A1 of the New York Times, but nevertheless, here it is: Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/24/03,  10:45:16 AM
ATK $48.19 (-0.70) With Defense stocks weak once again this morning, the DFI index is breaking to a new all-time low below $450. That weakness pressured shares of ATK down to the 447.50 level again, resulting in yet another bounce from that level. Clearly the bears are going to have to break this level with conviction if ATK is going to get moving in our direction. I personally do not favor chasing the stock lower at this time. It seems more favorable to wait for a failed rally to enter near resistance in the 449-50 area.

Over the weekend, I looked through some of the other Defense-related stocks and some other names that caught my attention were GD, LLL and NOC. All three of these stocks have been notably weak of late, obeying the same trend as ATK. I particularly like the action in shares of GD this morning, with the stock breaking down out of a month-long consolidation, hitting a new 22-month low.

LLL is trading fractionally lower this morning, but will need to break the $35 level before moving into the area of new 52-week lows. But now that the stock is solidly below $40, it seems a high odds bet that the stock will fill its Sept-01 gap down to $31.50.

NOC is looking very similar to GD, but running just a bit behind. In other words, NOC could be setting up for a breakdown under its own flat coil in the days ahead. Watch the $88 level (just below the January low) for a breakdown.

Use this additional information either to perform your own relative strength analysis and pick your favorite candidate, or use some of these other stocks as a way to measure the weakness in ATK relative to the sector, so you can get an early warning of when ATK's decline has run its course.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  10:41:09 AM
The dollar is under slight pressure this morning, partly due to strength in the Yen after Japan's nomination of a new central banker. Toshihiko Fukui was a little surprise to currency traders, but positive for the yen because of Fukui's reluctance to base monetarty easing on inflation targets and amount of purchases of foreign assets. I also believe Fukui is not in favor of devaluing the yen in order to help the country's economy.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  10:26:02 AM
The fed has announced an overnight repo of 2.75B. No expiries today, so it's a net addition.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  10:21:38 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX): 294.59 +1.52 Not sure if the bullishness here is due to CSCO's agreement with several chipmakers to include its Compatible Extensions wireless chip technology, but CSCO is offering free licenses to include the technology on chips and several companies INTC, ISIL, TXN have agreed to adopt it. IBM and HPQ said they will support it, as well.

I don't like the bullishness here for overall market bears.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  10:16:19 AM
The fed has yet to make an announcement- perhaps Al Green and Bernanke are sleeping off a particularly egregious weekend. The CRB is up .23% to 248.67, led by natural gas, which is up a whopping 22% to 8.10 for the March '03 contract. That is not a typo.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  10:14:20 AM
A few trader friends are telling me that the bid in bonds is mostly due to the possibility of a rate cut by the ECB on March 6th. It is being reported by Reuters that 23 out of 35 analysts expect such a cut. In fact, 14 out of the 23 believe the move will be for 50 bps. In other news, USB conducts an Investor Optimism report, which fell to a new low in February. The company has been compiling the index since 1996.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  10:12:12 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The ten-year yield continues to flirt with the top of today's range, not the bottom. Until we get a move below the bottom of today's range in the yields, I have a hard time seeing a decisive mover lower in stocks.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   2/24/03,  10:10:45 AM
VZ $35.02 (-0.62) Following in the pattern established on Friday afternoon, shares of VZ are sliding downhill with the rest of the market, currently testing the $35 support level. So far, any entries taken on the rollover on Friday are looking good, and traders looking for a fresh entry on the downside will need to wait for a break under Thursday's intraday low of $34.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  10:09:41 AM
The opening put to call ratio of .47 should have bulls battening down the hatches. That's a very low reading, particularly given the readings we've been seeing for the past month. The COMPX is bouncing from its lows, and we should note that the p/c ratio could be skewed by the squaring of positions following op-ex week.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  10:01:46 AM
The TICK.NQ at -641 is very negative, yet the TRINQ at .89 is giving us a "sunny day" reading- it looks like very focused buying on the COMPX.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  9:57:20 AM
As soon as I sent my last entry we began to roll over to neww intraday lows. However, that gap in the yields still has me concerned.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  9:56:36 AM
JP Morgan now believes the first fed tightening will be in early 2004 instead of Q3 2003. JP Morgan believes that September 2003 Eurodollars is not pricing indicating any possible fed movement, and is most likely responsibe for changing their outlook. Note: The fed funds are pricing in a chance of an ease in the Q3.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  9:55:34 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Yields climbing higher now, with the ten and thirty year into this morning's gap down. Could mean a bigger bounce for equities ahead.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  9:54:10 AM
Spot gold is currently +4.00 to 354.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  9:52:00 AM
regarding your 8:35 post. Last Thursday a bought some spx calls around 838 because I saw about 45,000 spx calls and puts bounched at 850 ( the highest number by far at any strike) and thought the institutions would take it back to near 850 on the close (Thursday being expiration day for the spx) but it never happened. Is thos a reliable filter or not? Am I missing something? thanks

It's a good filter, but it cannot be your only one. Market makers will try to run the price of the underlying to where they want it, as we saw with QQQ and a slew of large cap stocks. However, if they fear that they won't make it, they can always hedge using any variety of strategies. This why our opex targets don't always get hit.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  9:48:55 AM
The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and the Precious Metals Index (XAU) are showing strength today, +1.92 and +1.19 respectively. The TRINQ is low at .89 given that we're near the lows of the day, TICK.NQ -471 still showing broad liquidation. FVX is bouncing off its lows, now -3.2 bps, possibly signalling a bounce here at this important level.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  9:48:23 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Holding so far at Dow 7950. Yields are moving sideways, failing to confirm further bearishness in equities.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  9:45:12 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We did get a 5 min close below today's pivot, bounced back above and faded. Still, after the big turnaround on Friday, I'm not ready to declare a major rollover. We have moved below Friday afternoon's bounce levels and daily and weekly pivots.

Current levels: Dow 7950/COMP 1337/SPX 842.04/OEX 426.55

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  9:43:20 AM
Taking a quick glance at the 30-year bond, the '19 tick advance places the contract at 113'23 and in 'no-man's land.' I would look for a move above the 113'28 to 114 area to get more equity bears involved, or a failure of 113'12 to have cash continue to leave bonds and enter stocks.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  9:38:35 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Coincidence that we bounced right at today's pivot in the Dow? Let's look for a 5 min close below for bearish signals.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  9:37:43 AM
COMPX is down to the top of Friday's trading range, the level that acted as resitance all day following the post-explosion ramp job but preceding the end of day tape-painting short-covering ramp job. A slight bounce off the lows here is hinting that the COMPX might be getting ready to establish that s/r line as a base. If so, we'll look for a return to Friday's closing high. If not, a return to last week's range and possibly Friday's low.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  9:36:48 AM
With the first five-minutes behind us, the Dow had a range of 8017 to 7974, and is just above the daily pivot of 7970. If the pivot fails, support is seen at the 7925 area, above S1 of 7901. Bullish traders would like to see a bounce at the pivot, and then at least 8000 taken out on the upside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  9:31:52 AM
7 point gap down open to 1342 COMPX, TRINQ 1.35, QQV +1.61 to 40.13.

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  9:29:40 AM
Intra-day Pivot/Levels for Monday (02/24/03)...

INDU : S2= 7785, S1= 7901, P= 7970 , R1= 8086 , R2= 8156

SPX : S2= 823, S1= 836, P= 844, R1= 857, R2= 865

OEX : S2= 417, S1= 423, P= 428 , R1= 434, R2=439

NDX : S2= 975, S1=995 , P= 1007, R1=1028 , R2=1040

QQQ : S2= 24.16, S1= 24.66, P= 25.02 , R1= 25.52, R2= 25.88

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  9:17:38 AM
News that Citicorp (NYSE:C) is in talks to settle claims that it disguised loans to Enron.

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  9:17:37 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currently short a 3/4 position with a stop set at Dow 8170. Conservative traders can use an alternative stop above Dow 8100 (possibly 8110), which would coincide with the 38.2% retracement of the Jan-Feb drop at 8102, or just above 8050, which will be a 3-box point and figure reversal into a column of "X." Those reversals have been short entry opportunities in the recent past, however, the last Dow reversal lasted 8 boxes, or 400-points. More aggressive traders can use a stop above Dow 8200, which was the definitive neckline breakdown level of the head and shoulders pattern and also the highest PnF box since the January decline, when each bounce has topped at 8150. Next PnF buy signal comes at 8100, but the last two buy signals have been unreliable. I have not picked an exact addition point yet and will observe the market action before deciding on one.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   2/24/03,  8:35:42 AM
The US Dollar Index is playing pin-the-tail-on-the- 100.00 level, currently bouncing back above and gold is falling off the 353 level, now 351.80/oz. QQQ is currently trading 25.14. The many bears with whom I chat over the weekend were, on balance, ...relieving themselves in the woods. That is to say, the level of agitation, angst and anxiety was at a fever pitch. Whether that signals a top, bottom, or the middle of a range is anybody's guess. With the NDX at the 200 dma on Friday, this is indeed a critical day, and anyone who hasn't read the index trader wrap, market wrap and game plan from the website should do so. In the meantime, I just want to congratulate all the institutional option writers who managed to fix the price of most of the market with laser accuracy all last week. Money does indeed talk. We have 1012 NDX and 844.80 SPX on the futures currently, and bonds have just opened nicely in the green with FVX -3.8 bps, TNX -4.1 bps and TYX -3.5 bps. The fed is a little happier this morning (with the lower yields) as well.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   2/24/03,  6:08:54 AM
Good morning. Today, Toshihiko Fukui was named to replace Masura Hayami as the next head of the BOJ. Fukui is a former BOJ head. Many believe he will reject deliberate efforts to increase inflation as a means of reviving Japan's economy, and see his nomination as a continuation of the status quo, since Hayami opposed setting inflation targets. Also today, Japan's exports fell for the second month, with January's exports 5.1% lower than December's. The number surprised economists, but the yen's early weakness against the dollar outweighed the export numbers, with exporters such as Canon rising in early trading. The yen gained against the dollar through the day, but the Nikkei managed a 0.6% gain today.

Wim Duisenberg, head of the ECB, warned this weekend that the Eurozone's economy might not recover this year. Many believe that his comments signal a likely rate cut from the ECB. Adding to the day's gloomy start was the news that supermarket owner Royal Ahold would restate earnings for the past two years. CNBC World reports that the biggest problems were in the U.S. Foodservice division, which includes U.S. Giant and Stop & Shop chains, and Disco, the Argentine retail division. The CEO and CFO both resigned, and the stock had lost 60% of its value in early trading. Also in Europe, Bayer dropped on news that it knew about problems with anti-cholesterol drug Baycol years before its withdrawal from the market. As of this writing, all European markets were down, with the FTSE 100 down 8.40 points or 0.23%, the CAC 40 down 32.34 points or 1.14%, and the DAX down 55.61 points or 2.10%. The DAX dropped below 2600 and trades at 2593.26.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   2/24/03,  2:01:20 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   2/24/03,  2:01:05 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  2:00:57 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   2/24/03,  2:00:51 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives