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  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  9:24:55 PM
S&P futures (sp03h) settled at 822.00. Current trade (10-minute delay) is 820.80, so lower by 1.2 points.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  9:22:41 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow. Link

Highlighted levels are discussed at the end of this evening's Index Trader Wrap.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  6:29:15 PM
On the radar: These didn't make the final cut, but I'm keeping my eye on them.

Long: ROOM, STJ

Short: PG, WHR, VMC, KO, MMC, RKY, EXPE, TIN, POT

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  3:52:41 PM
VIX back above the 21-dma - finally a little fear in the market! Plenty of room to 40% (GRIN).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  3:51:30 PM
The VIX is moving to new highs on the day as 4:00 ET approaches. Currently at 36.50, the VIX has now climbed above its 21-dma.

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/4/03,  3:50:46 PM
Reader question: What are your thoughts of AMGN trading above $55 on expiration day this month? In looking at the March 55 call options, OPI is 31,157 & today's volume is 2513. April 55 call options has OPI @34,100 today's volume 867. Looking further I noticed the April 50 Put has OPI @13,600 with Volume today of 2,582. Seems to me that the MM's would not let it trade above the 55 strike price for March. Appreciate any in put. I own the stock long and did a CC for the March 55's @1.55. Stock is trading @54.50 up nicely on a down day. - Jerome

Response: You're abosolutely right, Jerome...With a lot of open interest at the 55 strike, that level might act as resistance (or a price magnet) as we approach options expiration. But with expiration not until March 21st, the stock has ample time to move above $55.00. Today's relative strength is a good indication that AMGN might soon stage a breakout to new highs. This would probably create a wave of short-covering, thus extending the long-term uptrend. As long as that trend remains intact, odds of a close above $55.00 by expiration look pretty good.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  3:49:45 PM
For reference in tomorrow morning’s posts about European markets, the DAX managed to scramble back above the 2500 level by the German market’s close, with a 2501.03 close.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  3:49:05 PM
The INDU has just taken out its February low.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  3:44:35 PM
Swing Trade Signals
With only a few minutes left and our stop set just about 20 points higher than where we are currently trading, those traders hanging on to the position need to be aware of the possibility of a gap up in the morning. We have a nice gain on the play and traders who do not want to assume that risk can take profits now and not risk the gap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  3:38:48 PM
The 3:15 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  3:38:30 PM
The VIX rose to a high of 36.46 today, testing its 21-dma at 36.40 and falling back to its current 35.83.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  3:28:39 PM
So far the neckline test was very feeble, but so has been the failure, with the COMPX caught between 1312 resistance and 1305 support. TRINQ at 1.72 shows a lack of commitment to the sell side, TICK.NQ -223 is moderate at best. I think that many are expecting another flagpole rally, and judging from the uneasiness I'm feeling, I am too. I see no reason for a bounce here, but that's how those flagpole rallies nailed me through the past weeks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  3:17:47 PM
The NYSE adv/dec ratio decreased since my last post about volume, with the NYSE ratio now at .57 and the Nasdaq ratio relatively stable at .62. Down volume on the NYSE is now 5.8 times up volume, while on the Nasdaq, it’s 3 times up volume. New lows make slight gains on new highs on the NYSE, while new lows only slightly outnumber new highs on the Nasdaq. Volume is 891 million shares traded on the NYSE and 949 million shares on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  3:09:38 PM
A reader questioned whether I trade the OEX since I write about it so much and whether I trade front-month or other options. The reader mentioned finding it difficult to trade the OEX lately. Is it ever! I once traded the OEX almost exclusively, but find that it’s best to limit any OEX trades to risk capital only right now. I have a small put position now, but it’s most certainly risk capital only. Lately, I’ve gravitated more toward hedged plays, preferably ones in which I sell someone else premium and let them stew while markets consolidate and premium evaporates. Try some of the hedged or combo positions offered in the newsletter each night and weekend, but first be sure you understand repair and exit strategies. As to the selection of expiration month, I usually avoid front-month options, although I tend to stay in trades so long that my options frequently become front-month options. Mark wrote an excellent article last night about making these kinds of trading decisions. If you haven’t read it, especially those of you who are new to options trading, I suggest it highly. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  2:51:09 PM
The COMPX appears to be making a bounce attempt back up to the neckline at 1312, but so far it's been unalble to make it that high. A kiss and failure from that level will confirm the head and shoulders pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  2:48:53 PM
Now that the OEX dropped through the 418 level, what might offer next short-term support? Here’s a different 60-minute chart that shows one possible support level from midline candlestick support at 412 from February 13. On February 25, the decline stopped just above that level, however, at 413.69, so also watch for a possible short-term bounce from that level. OEX 418-481.75 should now provide first resistance on any bounce, with the other previously mentioned levels providing next resistance. Over the long-term, February’s trading patterns (a continuation pattern that often occurs midway through a fall) suggested an ultimate OEX target near 390, confirming a P&F target (traditional). However, the OEX would have to fall through 407 first, and that level has provided support on several occasions. Link As all of us have mentioned, geo-political developments trump anything we're seeing on the charts, so please do not overleverage on any positions, bearish or bullish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  2:48:11 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 7,726 -1.4% ... has fallen below its WEEKLY S1 of 7,734.70, and QQQ $24.47 -0.73% tries to hold its WEEKLY S1 of $24.42, with session low of $24.42 just being tested last 15-minutes.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  2:41:42 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We just broke that support at 7719, but not convincingly, as we are getting some support here. Tightening further, let's lock in a 200 point gain here if we bounce from that 7700.

Lower stops to Dow 7741

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  2:38:18 PM
With Coca-Cola slipping to new six-year lows today, I took a look at the monthly chart. Finding that KO based near 20 from 1992 until the middle of 1994, I snapped a Fibonacci retracement from 20 to KO’s 1998 highs. At 38.55 as I type, KO would appear to find its next support at 36.27, the 78.6% retracement level. KO appeared to base near this level for several months through the end of 1995 and the beginning of 1996. Link Next resistance lies near 39.50, with the next retracement area near 41.60. KO’s ultimate target is much lower than 36.27, however, as the P&F chart shows. Link I hesitate to suggest KO for a put play because it has a nasty habit of jumping up several points past the next resistance just after it’s fallen through a critical level, stopping out put plays, or else languishing just above or below support for a couple of weeks while option prices decay. Experienced traders might take a look at the charts, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  2:38:05 PM
This looks like a neckline break on our head n shoulders pattern, best seen on the 30 min COMPX candles.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  2:36:07 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) YIELD breaking to session low ahead of its 03:00 Close. Short-term bulls, vulnerable here and looking for the exits in equities is my thinking.

Cutting out of QQQ March $25 calls here at $0.60.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  2:35:42 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Approaching the Feb 25 bounce level at 7719, this should be our next test.

Current levels Dow 7729/OEX 416.68/SPX 824.30/COMP 1310

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  2:35:33 PM
Wave of selling, new lows of the day. TRINQ 2.05, TICK.NQ -477, FVX -3.4 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  2:30:55 PM
GE at its low of the day, UAL halted.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  2:26:50 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Dropped below 7750 and I'm going to chase this one. I'm lowering my stop to 7755.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  2:15:48 PM
The 1:00 PM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/4/03,  2:14:07 PM
Seeing the Industrials move lower with treasury yields over the past hour. The Dow is trading just eight points above key intraday support at 7750.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  2:12:34 PM
I believe it may be wishful thinking, but it looks like a head and shoulders pattern on the 60 minute COMPX candles, with the neckline right at the low of the day. The shoulders are quite short, but they're there, and a break below the lows of the day should get the party started to the downside. The stochastic (10(5) setting) is failing on this attempted run back up. The 1305 support level could provide support and slow the fall, but the formation projects to approx 1280 COMPX.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  2:00:36 PM
Steve - This might be over-analyzing, but I think the stop might be a little tight. I'm watching the 21 pma on the 15-min DJX chart, looking for a break & close above as my exit. Ahh, well, either way it's a safe exit... (I know, there's always a critic out there...)

Gumby

Swing Trade Signals
I struggled with this one myself. I might suggest a stop above 8000, or even my previous stop above today's high for traders looking to give the drop a little more bounce room.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  1:56:15 PM
On the OEX 60-minute chart, the hourly candles grow smaller. The hourly chart won’t print those tiny candles forever, and the OEX is sure to make bigger moves soon. Which direction? That’s the question. I could be typing the same entry all day, but I see the possibility of a bounce toward the 60-minute 21-pma, currently at 423.67 and a likely failure there or perhaps a bit higher at 426, with an alternate scenario being a drop straight through 418. A move above 426 would next face resistance in the 430-432 area.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  1:51:38 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We continue to bounce off the 50-pma on the 5 min chart in the Dow, OEX and SPX. That line is droppong, but the 21-pma is rising and they are currently intersecting. If we can get a move below the 50-pma, maybe we can re-test the lows of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  1:51:19 PM
The COMPX is back below the 1318-20 zone, TRINQ neutral at 1.07. None of the oscillators I follow is oversold anymore, FVX back to lightly negative -0.9 bps, TICK.NQ -98.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  1:37:08 PM
At 38.80 as I type, Coca-Cola is hitting new six-year lows today, but those lows are only cents below last week’s new six-year lows, so this is still potential bounce territory for KO.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  1:32:14 PM
GE trading at its low of the day, down 1.59%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  1:26:58 PM
QQQ $24.71 +0.32% .... held a 5-minute close above $24.68, and has been finding support there last 20-minutes. Bulls want to see further selling in Treasuries here, with some QQQ upside near-term to $24.82-$24.90 zone.

Would "equate" QQQ $24.82 with Dow 7,805. (see 12:22:30) 5-minute chart of Dow.

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/4/03,  1:24:25 PM
Amgen (AMGN) $54.56 +0.71: AMGN is trading like a champ today, outperforming both the NASDAQ and the BTK.X biotech index. On Monday the stock suffered an intraday reversal after it failed to move above psychological resistance at $55.00. This had us looking for another test of the long-term ascending trendline. But instead, shares found buyers at the opening bell today and have stair-stepped higher throughout the session. At this rate it wouldn't be surprising to see another test of the $55.00 level before the trading day is done. A breakout above $55.00 might provide a possible bullish entry point, but bear in mind that there's some overhead historical resistance at $56.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  1:21:04 PM
At 23.59, GE trades between its 23.17 rounding-up 21-dma and overhead resistance just over 24. That resistance comes from the rounding-down 50-dma, and a descending trendline from August to the present. The 21(3)3 stochastics have been in overbought territory for seven trading sessions now, but have not yet turned down. RSI and OBV appear to be turning down, however. It does not appear that GE will be able to push over that resistance or, if it does, that it will be able to push over the longer-term descending trendline at 25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  1:17:19 PM
Lack of follow through on that break through 1320, could be a headfake, COMPX currently 1319 and FVX back to negative, -.2 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  1:12:50 PM
Good trade, Jeff. 1320 COMPX has fallen, with next resistance at 1328, then 1332.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  1:12:07 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Watching the QQQ turn positive now. Let's take our chips. Lower the stop again to 7796, just above the last bounce high..

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  1:08:58 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We based heavily at 7750 and it appears the recent down move may have exhausted itself. I'm lowering the stop to Dow 7815.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  1:07:16 PM
QQQ $24.66 +0.04% .... DAILY pivot analysis retracement has 61.8% at $24.68, and QQQ hasn't been able to hold a 5-minute close above this level yet today. With Dow Industrials (INDU) 7,779 now starting to par some losses, look for NDX/QQQ index leadership, which would start on 5-minute close above $24.68.

I got partial bullish fill in QQQ March $25 calls at $0.65 when Dow started to bid and 10-year YIELD edged up, but considered it "early" on daily basis and sat a bid. Looking to scalp in these calls to $0.80 or so.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  1:05:38 PM
The Comex Crush is underway, with spot gold heading lower, now up 3.80 at 352.30. FVX has gone flat- bears beware.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  1:04:58 PM
Total volume traded is 582 million shares on the NYSE and 643 million on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios rate .61 for the NYSE and .66 for the Nasdaq, with those numbers being in line with those reported earlier. Down volume is now 4.4 times up volume on the NYSE and 1.9 times up volume on the Nasdaq. New lows outnumber new highs on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  1:00:55 PM
Al Green is doubtless enjoying a light digestif following his mid-day lunch, having just snapped the elastic band around his $500M roll from the repo drain executed this morning. "Hey Ben, here, let me pick up lunch today," he exclaims jauntily, flipping the elasticked roll of bills through the air at a surprised Bernanke, who snatches it deftly from the air. "You're the man, Al!" quips The Rookie from the depths of his Zegna suit, trying to stuff the roll into his pocket.

A bit of pickup here on the COMPX, 1317.91 as another bounce attempt commences.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  12:59:37 PM
My broadband service went down for a few minutes, but it doesn't look as if I missed much while I was without Internet service. The OEX has moved above the five-minute 21-pma, but the 60-minute 21-pma has now turned down for the first time since last Thursday and is now located at 423.79.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  12:58:52 PM
10-year YIELD 3.677% .... creeps higher here and now YIELD is up fractional for session. Dow Industrials (INDU) 7,768 edges above MONTHLY retracement of 7,767.36 here. Might be seeing a little bid come back into equities.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  12:51:03 PM
Buy/Sell program premium alerts haven't gotten a one today and has been rather "slow" for this alert in recent sessions.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  12:41:24 PM
My shorter term intraday 10(5) stochastics have crossed back down, and this bounce attempt was no more than a pause in what is now a flat range. Is this just a bear flag that couldn't even muster an upward tilt? Or is this a base building for another blast off north? The TRINQ is up to 1.2, quite a moderate/neutral level, QQV -.14 at 39.69, FVX down 1 basis point. The FVX reading shows no real buying in the five year t-note, which could portend another bounce attempt, but so far, the market's just very quiet. The range remains between 1312 and 1318-20, with support below that at 1298-1305. There are rumors circulating that the US could issue an ultimatum to Iraq tomorrow, but for what, and with what outcome, and whether war is supposed to bullish, bearish or neutral anymore, I have absolutely no idea.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  12:22:30 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) ... Here's 5-minute chart that shorter-term traders Link (INDU, SPX, OEX, NDX/QQQ) bears are monitoring. For weakness, would look for Dow leadership to downside. Should Dow start "perking up," then look for strength in NDX/QQQ first, then OEX/SPX.

Same type of "thinking" for swing-traders and investors as it relates to the p/f chart of the Dow Indu. Here, we'd look for a trade at 7,700 to signal further weakness. Link

SPX reversing 3-boxes today, with trade at 835. Link

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) on 25-point box (conventional for Dorsey/Wright) Link ... the "default" chart from www.stockcharts.com is also interesting with $5-box from below 1,000, then $50-box above 1,000. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  12:11:29 PM
When markets trade as they’re doing today, traders find themselves reduced to watching miniscule moves and trying to interpret them. There’s a danger in reading too much into those moves. You know you’re in trouble or entirely too bored when you find yourself wishing that thirty-second charts were available. Still, I still make note that the OEX registered a five-minute close over the 21-pma, but then slipped back beneath that MA. Currently the 21-pma on the five-minute chart is at 419.09.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  12:02:49 PM
Until markets break out of their wedges, we won’t know for certain which direction they’re going to break. Those of us who have bearish outlooks can point to factors that predict that markets will break below support. Those of us with bullish outlooks can point to factors that should indicate that the markets want to go up and will likely break to the upside. I weigh in on the side of the bears for the long-term, but on the short-term am on the alert for another OEX push toward the 60-minute 21-pma at 424.08 or perhaps as high as 426, where the OEX faces resistance from several levels. Don’t bet too heavily on either interpretation, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  12:02:27 PM
No oomph on this bounce so far, TRINQ down to 1.0, QQV now -.45 to 39.36, FVX up to -1.6 bps.

That 1318-20 COMPX is critical for bulls- I'm frankly surprised that they haven't been able to seriously challenge it yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  11:59:14 AM
The 11:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  11:54:12 AM
European markets traded in a series of lower highs and lower lows throughout the day today, with the FTSE 100 closing at 3625 and the CAC 40 closing at 2676. The DAX still trades, and at 2499, currently makes another attempt at breaking back above 2500.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  11:52:59 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Really just going sideways here. I'm going to lower my stop to just above the opening range high, but I am concerned about the support at 7750. Conservative traders may want to take a gain here.

Lower stops to Dow 7860.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  11:47:10 AM
The COMPX is near the middle of the day range, but the TICK.NQ has come way up to -45, TRINQ down to 1.17, FVX up to 1.7 bps and it looks like another run at 1318-20 COMPX from the downside. Until that level is violated, I will await lower lows, but in the meantime, there seems to be pressure building for another bounce attempt.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  11:44:23 AM
Here’s an update of a 60-minute OEX chart that’s been posted a number of times over the last week. Note that the OEX currently rests on or just below the red trendline that ascends from February 13 to today. Note also that the 21(3)3 stochastics fell through their own ascending trendline last Friday, while the 5(3)3’s fell through theirs yesterday as the OEX was breaking out of that green bearish rising formation. Last Thursday, RSI had broken above a descending trendline, but today moves back below that trendline. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  11:30:01 AM
Every chart I scan seems to show a stock or index holding just above or just under key levels. At 39.00 as I type, Coca Cola (KO) trades just above the February 11 low of 38.85, a six-year low for KO. I don’t point out KO’s level as a trading recommendation but rather as a further indication of the tension between bulls and bears in today’s trading, as bulls try to hold stocks and indices above key levels while bears try to drive them down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  11:19:29 AM
PHLX Housing Index (HGX.X) 210.67 -3.4% ... showing weakness today and generates double-bottom sell signal at 212, with risk to 200 near-term Link . Today, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees no housing bubble, but thought refinancing activity should slow in 2003.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  11:13:15 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Dow is holding just above 7750. 7749 was the closing low on Feb 13, which is our recent relative low. It did trade down to 7628 that day, but rebounded strongly. We entered this short at 7940 and conservative traders may want to take some profits. I am considering tightening things up myself, but I want to give it some more time to work on that level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  11:12:42 AM
Research in Motion (RIMM) $12.12 +0.48% ... stock showing marginal gains with simple moving average resistance to $13.21 from 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMA's. SoundView out this morning saying it believes there will be a series of positive announcements over the next 4-6 weeks, whould should drive stock higher. While SoundView sees several catalysts that should drive stock off the recent lows, firm remains cautious on the stock longer-term. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  11:10:38 AM
Swing Trade Signals
There are 2 Dow stocks currently in the green: MO +0.04 and BA +0.04 and 2 with over $1 in movement: GM -1.52 and CAT -1.26

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  11:09:57 AM
Failing at yet another attempt to push above its exponential 200-dma yesterday, CSCO today trades at 13.63, one penny above its exponential 100-dma. The simple 200-dma lies below at 13.45.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  11:07:57 AM
Nothing like rangebound trading to tweak traders' nerves. The QQV is creeping up, +.41 to 40.24, while the TRINQ is now at 2.11, showing moderate selling pressure. FVX down 3 bps now, actually signalling more weakness than I see on the COMPX currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  11:06:13 AM
Currently at 418.71, the OEX sits squarely on the ascending trendline formed from the higher lows from February 13 to the present. It also rests near the 418.75 support. This is a key level for the OEX. Bears want to see it fail; bulls want to see it hold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  11:04:07 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.654% ... after brief spat of selling in Treasuries, which saw 10-year YIELD edge up to 3.691%, has been edging lower after opening for stocks. Has seen a pick up in buying in last 15-minutes and helps send Dow Industrials (INDU) 7,762 -0.95% to lows of the session.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  10:57:09 AM
I’ve been watching the five-minute OEX chart. So far, the 21-pma on that five-minute chart has been rebuffing the OEX as it attempts to rise, but bears still need to see a firm break through 418. Without that firm break, a bounce remains a possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  10:57:08 AM
McKesson Corp. (MCK) $25.92 -1.18% ... had a downside alert set here at $26.00 for weakness. Mentioned this one as bearish recently from "bearish triangle" formation of $25. Profiling the MCK May $25 puts, with bearish target of $17 in next 2.5 months. Link

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in MCK.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  10:56:20 AM
Swing Trade Signals
That Dow 7770 level is proving tough. This last rollover reached 7771 again before bouncing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  10:55:03 AM
1318-20 COMPX held on that last push higher, relieving the shortest term oversold condition. The TRINQ is at 1.28 currently, TICK.NQ -278, QQV still flat, FVX -2.2 bps. 1312 should provide support, with more significant support further below at the 1298-1305 level.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  10:37:44 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX and SPX are finding support on the PnF chart at an ascending support trend line right now. The Dow ticked just below that line at 7800. I'm using a 2.5 point box on the OEX to make that determination.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  10:35:48 AM
The COMPX is approaching 1318 for its retest after finding support at 1312. TRINQ .99, TICK.NQ -241, QQV flat.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  10:35:39 AM
Nextel (NXTL) $13.30 -1.3% ... most actively traded in this morning's session after Motorola (MOT) said it sold 25 million shares of NXTL, or approx. 23% of its 108 million share stake. MOT said it sold NXTL shares to realize price appreciation of some investments in the company. MOT also said it has entered into agreements to hedge the value of up to an additional 25 million shares over the next 5 years.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  10:35:32 AM
Early volume patterns show more decliners, as could be expected, with adv/dec ratios measuring .64 for both the NYSE and Nasdaq-traded issues. Down volume measure 3.5 times up volume on the NYSE and 2.5 times up volume on Nasdaq. New lows outnumber new highs on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  10:34:48 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The SOX os now positive trading +1.71 at 287.61. I see that as a warning sign to shorts. Dow continues to bounce at 7770. SPX back over 830 and OEX just over 420.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  10:30:53 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Five and Ten-Year Yields are still above their early morning lows and are bouncing from the latest drop. I'd like to see a rollover below those mroning lows to get us rolling further downhill.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  10:18:44 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Today's S1 pivot in the Dow is 7779 and SPX is 840, which we are testing right now. A 5 min close below these levels, whould be bearish, but so far we have bounced there twice.

Current levels: Dow 7789 (low 7777)/SPX 830.36 (low 829.11)/OEX 419.98 (low 419.24)/COMP 1314.78

The COMP is back below yesterday's lows, but I'll need to see a close below 1319 to think we have truly ratcheted lower. So far the SOX is holding up (SOX 285.18 -0.72)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  10:18:21 AM
The Bank of Canada has hiked rates by 25 bps. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  10:13:27 AM
European markets currently trade near the day’s lows, with the FTSE 100 at 3639, the CAC 40 just off its lows and at 2674, and the DAX at 2495. The markets attempted a bounce after my 8:23 report, but that bounce failed.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  10:07:04 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Still holding in the same area we have bounced from in the recent past. Alternative stops could be placed just over 7800 or just over 7850, which was previous support or just above our opening range high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  10:04:41 AM
Deutschebank has cut GM and F to "sell".

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  10:02:51 AM
Challenger reports that February layoffs were up 5% to 138,177.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  9:57:28 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's lower the stop to the first alternative of Dow 8060. Conservative traders can think about taking chips off the table if we continue to bounce just below 7800.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  9:56:53 AM
The fed has just added 6.75B by way of overnight repo, for a 500M drain from the exipiring 7.25B from yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  9:54:49 AM
The SOX moves down toward last week’s support between 280.90-281.50 and the daily 21-dma at 279.31. I would add those levels to the ones Jonathan and Steve mentioned as key levels, as well as the OEX 418-418.75 level I mentioned earlier.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  9:51:05 AM
The VIX has moved back above the 35 level this morning, currently measuring 35.39.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  9:48:52 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are testing intraday lows here, but so far Dow 7800 is holding. Once below 7790, I'd feel better about a break below 7800, but let's get the break first. 830 could give us a bounce in the SPX as well.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  9:41:28 AM
Assuming that 1318-20 holds back the bounce attempt, I'm seeing 1305 as the next stop to the downside, with the 1298-1305 COMPX trading range as our next confluence zone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  9:38:17 AM
The 60-minute OEX 21-pma is above at 424.71, just underneath yesterday’s broken short-term trendline, currently near 426. In the event the OEX should attempt a bounce from this level or from the 418-418.75 area, watch for a possible failure near those resistance levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  9:37:55 AM
Strength in gold, with the spot price +4.70, HUI +2.65 and XAU +.89. GM is getting sold today, and the COMPX has lost the 1318 level, currently trading 1316.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  9:35:31 AM
Yesterday’s OEX low was 420.92, but stronger support lies beneath that level at 418-418.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  9:30:54 AM
Flat open on the COMPX at 1320, TRINQ .68, TICK.NQ -128, QQV +.84 to 40.51.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  9:27:14 AM
Pivot Matrix for today Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/4/03,  9:27:03 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/4/03,  9:22:47 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currently short a 1/2 position in the broader markets wtih a stop set at Dow 8170. Alternative stops can be set at 8060 or just over 8000. More conservative traders can either take a small gain here, or possibly use the break-even mark as a stop. With yields back in the green and futures bouncing from earlier levels, the downside follow through doesn't look as promising as it did earlier this morning. If we do roll back over, I'llbe watching Dow 7800 very closely. We have bounced there on numerous occasions, trading briefly below that level, before rallying. I'd like to see some resistance there if broken. Given the bounce in yields, I would not be surprised if we rally either at the open, or shortly after.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  9:21:27 AM
If Barton AND Abbey say that stocks are going up, I know it is definitely time to load the boat with shorts.

Add Dan (de)Niles to the list. This is why the commitment of trader reports are so critical. If a stock is overbought, or in the distribution zone, and the usual suspects begin issuing upgrades and bullish comments, prudence dictates tightening stops under longs, if not actively getting short. The oscillators, COT reports, and charts don't lie. If the "big boys" are getting net shorter and their commentators are upgrading an overbought situation, well, that tells the story, doesn't it?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  9:06:51 AM
On the other hand, Barton Biggs says stocks want to go up and just need an excuse, and Dan Niles, in his own oblique, indirect way, called the top in INTC last Friday. Buffett must be losing massive amounts of sleep contemplating the divergence between his opinion and that of noted heavyweights Biggs and Niles.

...

Yields are lightly negative with FVX -1.2 bps, TNX -.7 bps, and TYX +.5 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  8:56:04 AM
Interesting that Oral of Omaha's (grin) negative comments on derivatives and stocks didn't get swept under the carpet or spun into oblivion. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  8:23:38 AM
European markets continue their slides, with the FTSE 100 now trading at 3640; the CAC 40 slipping beneath 2700 and trading at 2677, moving toward October lows at 2612; and the DAX slipping beneath 2500 and trading at 2493, moving toward recent multi-year lows at 2433.15.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/4/03,  8:02:10 AM
The US Dollar Index took more hits last night and is now trading below 99.00, while gold broke through 350/oz and is currently trading 352.65. Futures got sold and are down, with QQQ trading 16 cents off its close, currently 24.49. NDX futures are trading 985.50, SPX 831.00. Al Green added 1.85B in liquidity yesterday, but it didn't appear to do much good, and the full 7.5B amount of that repo is expiring today- the announcement will be released around 10AM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  7:50:07 AM
Various news agencies report widely different death tolls in the blasts in Davao, Philippines, first mentioned in my earlier report, with numbers reported at 16-17, “in the dozens,” and around 50, depending on the news agency.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/4/03,  6:54:21 AM
Good morning. Yesterday’s report on the car industry showed that Asian car manufacturers gained market share in the U.S. Incentives had fewer effects on U.S. sales, a conclusion affirmed by Honda’s 14% raised sales of combined Honda and Acura brands. Honda offered the lowest incentives of all major car manufacturers. That increased market share and 14% higher sales on combined brands did not help Honda in early Asian trading, however, as the shares fell on news of lower demand for the Acura division’s performance car models. Also hurting Honda was the news that the manufacturer sold fewer units in Japan. A general decline in Asian stocks may also have impacted Honda’s performance in early trading as Asian exporters fell amid concerns about yesterday’s U.S. ISM numbers and a firmer yen. Asian investors fear that a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing means less demand for products imported from Asia. In addition, the encounter between a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane and North Korean fighters weighed on Asian markets. Despite these concerns, the Nikkei closed down only 10.18 points or 0.1%, with big gains in banks balancing the losses in exporters. Financial stocks plummeted in recent weeks as troubled banks and insurers announced measures to raise capital, but a daily newspaper reported that Mizuho Financial Group was attaining success in raising capital.

Also of note in Asian trading were earnings misses reported by HSBC Holdings and Hang Seng Bank, with those reports coming after the close of trading on Monday. Taiwan Semiconductor planned to meet Tuesday to discuss paying a dividend, a move some analysts felt would hurt spending on research and design. The Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting today, but no change in rates is expected.

Across Europe, markets fell. CNBC World reported this morning that techs currently lead the decliners, with insurers coming in second. Defensive stocks such as utilities and food and beverages companies were mentioned among the best performers although they were dropping into negative territory in the middle of the European sessions. Although Rolls Royce was reported as doing well in European trading, German car manufacturers were dropping on disappointing sales, with a report today indicating that European car-industry sales dropped 4% last month. The usual concerns about a war with Iraq, the declining U.S. dollar, and struggling economies impacted the markets, and the belief that the U.S. will move without U.N. backing, new declines in the U.S. dollar, and the release of several economic numbers heightened those concerns. Eurozone December retail sales fell 1.1% month-to-month and 1.9% year-to-year, and Eurozone January unemployment rose to 8.6% from the previous month’s 8.5%. The unemployment number was in line with expectations. French consumer confidence fell to minus 26, the lowest number since mid 1997.

European investors and business owners await the ECB’s decision on interest rates, expected Thursday. ECB President Wim Duisenberg had previously lowered expectations for Eurozone economic growth, leading some to speculate that he would be open to a rate cut, but yesterday’s slightly rosier Eurozone PMI numbers prompted some to question whether that would happen. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 27.30 points or 0.74%, the CAC 40 was down 56.21 points or 2.03%, and the DAX was down 37.26 points or 1.46%. Yesterday, the CAC 40 was challenging 2800, and now it trades at 2706.04. Similarly, the DAX now trades at 2512.39 after challenging 2600 yesterday.

Geo-political concerns refocused this morning. At least two and perhaps as many as four separate explosions occurred in the Philippines today. A bomb explosion in Davao’s airport was followed quickly by an explosion in a bus terminal in the same city. At least 50 have died.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   3/3/03,  1:12:41 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  John Seckinger   3/3/03,  1:11:34 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/3/03,  1:09:24 AM
The Swing Trade Gameplan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   3/3/03,  1:06:37 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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