Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  10:16:17 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) with new WEEKLY retracement overlaid. Monthly retracement stays the same. Link

Good correlation at 853.50, where the WKLY R1 "overlaps" the WEEKLY retracement's 19.1% of 853.63. VERY IMPORTANT NOTE for bearish trader, especially if short the underlying SPY. Notice the extension of the WEEKLY R1 to the left of the chart. UNDERSTAND how any reversal up in the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BNDX) like that found after the close of trading on October 11th, should be used as an ALERT to strength from an internal market indicator. Then make note of SPX price action ABOVE 853.50 on October 15th, when after that day's tally was taken, the S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) reversed up into "bull alert status." Point here is that a protective stop above 853.50, say 855 in the SPX may be a prudent strategy.

Believe me.... I did get e-mail at SPX 920 from shorts/puts well below the 835 level that were feeling some pain.

The NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) was unchanged today at 34%, but just 2 stocks shy of reversing point and figure buy signals to get a 36%, which would be a 3-box reversal up to 36% and "bull alert" condition. Link

The somewhat slower moving, but also 100 stock indicator in the S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) was unchanged today at 23%. It would need a net gain of 5 stocks to reversing upward p/f buy signals to achieve the 28% level and a 3-box reversal into "bull alert" status.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  8:42:22 PM
DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot matrix. DAILY is for Monday, while the WEEKLY is for next week. MONTHLY hasn't been changed, and won't be updated until the close of trade on Monday, March 31 (I contemplating on updating it the Friday of March 28th, so we have consistent levels to trade). Here's the matrix... Link

Now... put your thinking caps on, but I'll talk in order of what I'm looking for on Monday, and then throughout the week. It all starts with the S&P Banking Index (BIX.X).

BIX.X ... 1) Somewhat bearish is that the BIX.X closed below its DAILY pivot for Monday, but more noticeable, its MONTHLY S1, both are correlative levels of 265 and can be deemed "early resistance." As such, this is first level I will have an upside alert set at for Monday morning (see blue boxes and lines of attachment). 2) The 265 level serves early alert to strength, as a move above that level or today's highs, immediately has us looking at rally potential to WEEKLY R1 and MONTHLY Pivot of 273. This type of move could then fuel a rally in the SPX to 850-853. 3) First sign of weakness for BIX would be a break of correlative support at DAILY S1 and WEEKLY pivots (262 to be safe). We "know" from the matrix, and this weeks trade that the BIX has MONTHLY S2 downside in it, and a break below 262, puts the 256.8 if not this week's low of 252.84 in play. SPX and OEX traders will make the tie with this past week's lows under such a scenario.

"Pink boxes" in the matrix.... These are levels already discussed recently. 1) NDX DAILY S1 .... was something I wanted to look for based on today's 13:25:25 post regarding NDX 1,108.8, which keeps showing up in the matrix. It has been a level of resistance, which was broken to the upside on Thursday. As such, it becomes a level of support until broken to the downside. This becomes a near-term level of support for Monday, but if broken has downside risk to correlative 1,008-1,006 from NDX's DAILY S2 and WEEKLY pivot. 2) SPX weekly R1 ... this is level that keeps showing up in the WEEKLY pivot matrix. (see 18:52:17 post). Right now, I have no correlations in DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY with this level, but come Monday's close, we might see something in Tuesday's DAILY. Right now, I would view this level as a significant level of resistance, but also becomes a bull's near-term target, especially if BIX.X breaks upside resistance. 3) NDX WEEKLY S1. I'm starting to like this level for a bullish pullback level. Nice correlation in my opinion with Wednesday-Thursday morning "gap" from 970.54. Thinking here... "every short, along with his/her brother and sister below 970 might be looking to buy 970 after recent two days. 4) Dow Indu WEEKLY S1 ... I forgot to mark this box "pink," but this is level that showed up last week, and still pretty close to the DIA bearish vertical count of 7,540. Thinking here... if Treasury YIELD isn't making new YIELD lows, might round to 1/2 bullish in my Sept. $80 DIA calls, with another 1/4 position.

Correlative levels in matrix

Dow Support 7,731-7,736

SPX Support 821.2 , Resistance 853.50 (from our WEEKLY comparisons)

OEX Support 417 , Resistance 433 (if using SPX 853.50)

NDX Support ... if 1,018 is broken to downside, the Support 1,006-1,008. Resistance near-term 1,040-1,041 but NDX traded 1,039.8 on Friday, so need further upside assessment to 1,066-1,070 (WEEKLY R1-MONTHLY R2) as NDX seems to be in a world of its own.

QQQ Support $25.07-$25.08 (I wish they'd close the Q's with the NDX at 04:00 PM).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  6:52:17 PM
WEEKLY Pivot Matrix ... here's the recent 2 weeks, and next week's pivot matrix. Link

Resistance: Keeps showing up for SPX in a range of 850-853 at the WEEKLY R1's. So far, this level hasn't been tested. You can really see the 853 level in play at resistance on the bar chart too, since the rally of 852.87 on(2/18/03), which was the day after Hans Blix's "first report" to the U.N. From our point and figure chart discussions in the Index Trader's wrap, the 5-point box, has a bearish trader's stop at 855, to guard against the potential "triple-top" buy signal. Link

The S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) traded soft all day today, and was a real laggard this past week. Right now, this appears to be a sector, which if weakness continues, threatens further bullishness in the SPX and OEX if not the Dow too. This past week's S1 of 265.23 really served resistance the latter 1/2 of today's session. A potential signal to weakness in this sector and perhaps the OEX,SPX,DOW would be a break below 262, which is next WEEK's pivot and might be a correlative point (thought it never came into play) with the 3/3-3/7 WEEKLY S2. However, it would be my thinking, if the BIX.X is going to try and rally to correlative resistance of 272-273 which shows up in the last three WEEK's pivots, then 262 is a level that may need to hold support early next week.

This may "make sense" ... a rally in the BIX.X to 273, if the SPX is to try and test correlative resistance from 850-853. If the banks falter early next week to the downside, then bears most likely look to leverage the 850 level and target this week's lows again.

In "pink" I've highlighted the OEX and this WEEK's S2 of 389.50. This is very close to the bearish vertical count of 390, from the OEX p/f chart. One could think that "trouble" in the banks could send the OEX and SPX reeling lower to this type of target. I'm not sure if OEX 390 is a target for this week, but a will still keep a trader's interest.

Now... in last night's Index Trader's wrap, I made mention of how in October, both the Dow Diamonds and the OEX traded their bearish vertical counts just prior to the rebound from those lows. My comments there were that the DIA traded its bearish count on Wednesday, but the OEX didn't come close.

I see correlative support showing in the Dow Industrials at WEEKLY S1 of 7,540. If I'm looking for a market bottom, wouldn't it be something if the Dow were to fall back to 7,540 or so.... but bank weakness have the OEX extending lower to 390 in its pivot, but the Dow holding firm on a decline back near 7,540? Think about this in regards to the bullish %, which has the Dow at 9.99%, but the OEX at 22% (unch after today's action). About the "only way" I see the OEX bullish % falling further lower, is if the banking portion really falls apart. According to Dorsey/Wright and Associates, their Banks Bullish % is currently "bear confirmed" 54.46, but a reading of 64% would have this sector giving a "bull confirmed" reading. Do we see the difference between the banks bullish % and the OEX bullish %, but begin to understand how important the banks may be in the coming week and why we've been giving this sector some attention in the past three weeks. This is the "strong" sector that's starting to show some weakness (the head is turning back) and the bullish % level of 54.6% hints there may be some risk still to be taken out (more stocks to generate sell signals).

This is where I kind of like my "snake scenario" thinking, of how a MARKET tends to move, with various sectors like the banks, which had been very strong and perhaps the "head" of the snake, have turned to look back at the "tail" of the snake to see what has been pulling at it. This past week, the BIX.X really seemed to "turn back" and look at what was pulling at the weaker sectors, which until Wednesday afternoon, seemed to try and rebound.

Always keep an eye on the head of the snake, and handle it with care, especially if the snake is poisonous.

I've been looking around at various banking stocks, and haven't really been able to come up with a compelling long or short. Many look "neutral." However, I think this is the equity sector that can be monitored, which may dictate market direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  3:59:51 PM
It appears that the Russell 2000 will end the day and the week below its July 354.11 intraday low, below the broken trendline that it retested this week, and below its still descending 21-dma. On the daily chart, OBV slants straight down, showing no stealth buying in the small caps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  3:50:24 PM
Unless something big happens before the end of today's trading, many of the indices will print daily candles that are either dojis or small-bodied candles, indicative of the indecision being seen in today's trading. Because the bodies of these candles, when they have bodies, sit above yesterday's close, there's the potential that they're the first two candles of possible three-candle reversal signals. They're not perfect or classic, but Nison says we must give some leeway to indices, particularly when such patterns form near resistance, as they are doing. However, I caution that potential doesn't mean confirmed, and is far from being so. Monday's action will tell the tale. Take a look at the weekly candles and you'll see a completely different potential. There, candles spring up from support, giving a much more bullish cast to the week's behavior.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  3:38:19 PM
Volume patterns seem to change each time I check them, perhaps echoing the confusion of traders who don't want to commit one direction or another. Currently, advancing issues lead, although the numbers are nearly equal on the Nasdaq. Up volume leads on the NYSE; down volume leads by about the same amount on the Nasdaq. New highs equal new lows on the Nasdaq; new lows are ahead on the NYSE. Total volume is 1.26 billion on the NYSE and 1.34 billion on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  3:26:04 PM
A reminder to readers: front-month options prices will decay rapidly over this weekend. Take that into consideration as you make end-of-day and end-of-week account-management decisions.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  3:23:27 PM
That would be a headfake above 1340. Let's see how it does with 1330 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  3:10:39 PM
We have our upside break of 1343, TRINQ down to .96. The highs of the day just above 1350 are our next target.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  3:07:24 PM
XL $68.56 +0.77 I have lowered the stop on this play to $70.06. It didn't make last night's newsletter but will be changed today.

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/14/03,  3:03:52 PM
Possible plays culled from the NASDAQ 100 and SPX...Long: DISH, SBUX, YHOO, JDSU (aggressive), RBK, MGG, EMC. Short: BRCM, CEPH, MO, CSC, and T.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  2:58:32 PM
Easing back into the pleasantly aged leather wingback chair deep within the lead, concrete and kryptonite-ensconced security of the Marriner S. Eccles Building, Al Green emits a contented sigh of repose as Ben Bernanke, "The Rookie", waves for another single malt to be brought to him. The waiter has learned to order them "unbruised" with no more than one-half a mineral-water ice cube in the antique old fashioned glass, complete with soft finger indentations in a cool, thick glass. An indolent, carefree pall of rich cigar smoke hangs lazily in the Friday afternoon post-ramp-job air of the fed building. The brick securely on the gas pedal of the printing press downstairs, the world's debts being methodically monetized and liquified, and the financial world intact for another week, the fed chairman and governor savor a rare moment to "smell the roses." TGIF.

Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  2:58:10 PM
A reader wrote with some astute observations about the 60-minute OEX chart and the action of the oscillators today. Here's my answer: Sometimes when I'm looking for bullish or bearish divergence, I compare the last two times an indicator was fully overbought instead of the last two peaks on the indicator. The last time the hourly RSI was fully overbought was February 18 when the OEX was at 432. In this case, there's slight bearish divergence with the RSI peaks and the OEX price. (A line touching the last two fully overbought peaks shows a slight ascension, while a line drawn from that February 18 OEX price peak to today's so far shows a slight downward slant.)

However, with that said, the 5(3)3 zoomed down quite a bit today on a rather negligible move down on the OEX. The 21(3)3 has that kind of flat-angle slope that sometimes predicts that it's going to turn right back up again, and that may indeed happen. The 21(3)3 could well hang up there at overbought levels while the 5(3)3 makes one more cycle up and while the OEX consolidates near current levels or moves up again toward the day's highs.

That's on a normal day, however. The last hour's trading today may be driven more by market participants scrambling to position themselves ahead of a Bush/Blair meeting on Sunday, a Fed meeting next week, and perhaps an Iraqi war next week. I just don't know who's going to be more anxious to close positions--shorts or longs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  2:43:34 PM
The rangebound action is unpleasantly reminiscent of the flagpole rangebound coma sessions we remember so well from weeks and months now mercifully past. Nothing to do but get comfy and watch the range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  2:43:00 PM
In mid-January, the Dow Jones Industrials fell precipitously and then steadied, trading in a wedge-shaped consolidating pattern. In early March, the DJI fell through that consolidation pattern, hinting that it was actually a continuation and not a reversal pattern. The action of the last few days has brought this index up to retest that consolidation level as might be expected any time support is broken. It's often that retest that either confirms or negates the importance of the formation. I've extended both lines of the wedge, showing that today the DJI reached for the top line and then fell back and currently trades below the bottom extended line. This chart emphasizes the importance of some of those levels Steve has been mentioning. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  2:34:10 PM
Last week and this week, I mentioned that the Russell 2000 had fallen through an ascending trendline in place since October and that the Russell's behavior might portend a similar fall in other indices. In any case, a rally might not be sustainable without the participation of the small caps. Here's a daily chart of the Russell, showing that this morning's positive trading brought the Russell up to test that trendline from the underside. The 21-dma also coincided with the location of that broken trendline. So far, the Russell appears to have failed that test of the trendline. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  2:27:27 PM
SLAB $29.05 +0.55 OI call play SLAB, picked at $25.62, reached our target this morning between $29 and $30, with a high of $29.43. I suggested in last night's play desription that traders look to take profits there, and I am considering closing this ply for a profit today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  2:13:24 PM
After coming within five points of its simple 200-dma today, the SOX fell away and has now moved below its simple 100-dma at 304.39. Just below is the exponential 100-dma at 301.83. A move below that and then below the 298.98 50% retracement of yesterday's big white candle would be bearish, although there's other support layered beneath those levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  2:07:14 PM
Bond yields are near their lows of the day currently, which looks good for a break of the 1330 COMPX support we're watching.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  2:05:43 PM
Well, we got our break, but the drop lacks the drama I would have expected from a downside break of a bear flag. A bounce could change the picture significantly- 1330 to 1340 appears to be the batteground for the current range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  2:02:32 PM
The FTSE 100 climbed 114.90 points to manage a close barely above the important 3600 level, at 3601.80, and near the day's high. The CAC 40 climbed vertically through the last hour of its day, closing up an astounding 185.30 points or 7.25%, at 2740.01. The DAX, however, closed near the middle of today's range, managing a close above the 2400 level, at 2402.89, but well beneath the 2482.14 high. The DAX trades longer than the other two markets, and so had time to react when our markets paused this morning.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  2:02:09 PM
TRMS $42.00 -1.95 CNBC and Bloombeg have been talking about the action in TRMS all day. The stock got a big boost this morning following approval of its new HIV drug, Fuzeon, which is the first in a new class of treatments called fusion inhibitors. It topped out at $46.90, and is now down $5 from the high. Bloomberg TV was commenting on the fact that the opportunities for investors in TRMS (longs) was probably past. I've watch listed the stock a number of times so its been on my radar for a while (it currently sits on our Watch List). The approval for Fuzeon was expected since it was fast tracked a few months ago, so I really don't have a good explanation for the massive reversal off the highs, other than the realization that the company has problems producing a lot of it. The drug is very expensive and so far reports have made some allusions to this being the company's only drug, although it has some others in the pipeline. The trouble producing enough quantities of the drug to justify previous earnings expectations led to the sell-off in late October from highs around $57.

Here's the skinny: My wife did some of the early research on Fuzeon and also the next drug in the pipeline for this company, currently labeled T-1249. Fuzeon should be successful, as it will work for patients that have developed resistance to traditional drugs they are currently using and that is one of the big selling points. However, it also has some problems with HIV developing resistance to the drug eventually (like almost every other HIV drug, which leads to the necessity of treatment using a cocktail, instead of just one drug). However, T-1249, which should come next, is much more effective as far as resistance is concerned and could be an even more effective treatment and eventually an even bigger product than Fuzeon. So for those readers who are listening to reports that they have missed the boat, it is not necessarily true.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  1:55:53 PM
Is this a bear flag on the COMPX 5 minute candles? If so, the lows will get taken out when it fails. FVX down 2.6 bps and TRINQ at 1.31, TICK.NQ -212 seem to support that interpretation. More than that, however, is that the market seems to be trading "organically" today- that is, it's moving in different directions, printing different patterns at different times, etc., unlike yesterday's full-throttle shuttle-launch straight north with a brief pause around 10AM.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  1:55:40 PM
The OEX may be failing in the test of its 5-minute 21-pma, moving back below that moving average as I type. If the OEX should fall further, remember that daily 21-dma at 420.49. It's been arresting the OEX's falls today, too, and is also located at an area of historical support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  1:44:06 PM
Since Wednesday afternoon, the five-minute 21-pma has provided a springboard for the OEX whenever the OEX has approached it, but late morning, the OEX broke through that MA and stayed below it until the just-completed five-minute. Now at 423.54, the OEX has momentarily moved above that five-minute 21-pma at 422.96.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  1:35:50 PM
Swing Trade Signals
It certainly seems that each time I'm convinced that we are headed back down, we find bids and bounce. I do think we could be seeing yet another sign of a reversal, but shorting what looked like a reversal yesterday still seems dangerous. From the bearish perspective, one could argue that we simply bounced to a descending resistance trendline from the beginning of February. Here is a snapshot of that trendline Link

It would certainly be supported by the weakness in yields.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  1:25:25 PM
Just noticing this... was looking at my "historical" MONTHLY pivot data, and February's MONTHLY pivot was 1018.50. What's "interesting" perhaps is that 1018.8 is this WEEKS R1 of 1,018. What's "interesting" about that, is that the conventional retracement has 38.2% retracement at 1,017.99. What's interesting about that, is today's low has been 1,020.18.

Before I put on anymore short/put positions in a QQQ/NDX trade, I would have to at least be looking for weakness below 1,018 at this point. Bulls may well be sitting support in accumulation mode at that level too. Will see what next week's pivot matrix has to say, if anything about 1,018.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  1:24:50 PM
The action on the COMPX at 1340 will be very telling. If it doesn't resist the move higher, we could see another attempt on the highs of the day. FVX is now -1.5 bps, TRINQ 1.28 and TICK.NQ -2. Not signs of a bullish assault so far, but the move is young. 1340 will be our first tell for the afternoon's direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  1:22:40 PM
Decliners have now pulled slightly ahead of advancers on the Nasdaq, but advancers remain ahead on the NYSE. Down volume now leads on both. Adv/dec ratios are 1.08 on the NYSE and .96 on the Nasdaq. Down volume is about 70 million shares ahead of up volume on the NYSE, but the disparity is larger on the Nasdaq, with down volume now 1.9 times up volume. Volume is 880 million shares on the NYSE and 979 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  1:06:14 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 305 -1.73% ... nothing major here, but sector decliner among technology. I hadn't realized SOX was approaching its bearish resitance trend. Might look for pullback to 295 minimum, which would be 3-box reversal.

Yesterday's action saw the Semiconductor Bullish % ($BPSEMI) reverse up to bull alert! status yesterday to 28%. This is often a good time to begin putting together a list of semiconductor stocks for 3-4 month expiration long play.

My "favorite" without even looking at a chart is the sector bellwether Intel (INTC). If there's a rally to be had in the SOX, then it will have "Intel inside!"

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  1:03:03 PM
As I began typing this entry, the OEX was poised just a little more than a point above its 21-dma, at 420.44. A few moments ago, the DJI actually moved a couple of points below its 21-dma at 7814.29, but then bounced back up. This could be a key moment for the markets. So far, today's behavior still is looking eerily like the trading on July 8, mentioned in my 10:24 and 10:47 posts. Since January, I've been watching the similarities between the May-July slide last year and the behavior of the markets since the beginning of this year. Doing so has kept me from becoming prematurely bullish on a few occasions and held me back from jumping into bullish plays over the last couple of days, too. Since I'm a position player who stays in plays over days or weeks, I want to be on the right side of the intermediate-term and long-term movements, and I just wasn't sure that "up" was the right side for anything but the short-term period. I'm still not, although I again caution that these parallels I keep drawing shouldn't be taken as guarantees that the markets will plunge again as they did in July.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  12:45:57 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The fade in the Dow and reversal into the red in the SPX, OEX and COMP are beginning to form what looks like bearish reversal candles similar to what we saw two days ago with bullish reversal candles on the bottom. I still think aggressive bears are in decent shape here. Jim is short in the Futures Monitor and I think he has a very good chance of a profitable trade. I hope I didn't miss my opportunity at a short entry, but after the action of the last two days I'm not entirely convinced we will now see a sell-off and I'd prefer to hear what comes out of this weekend's summit between the U.S., Britain and Spain before making a commitment. I do think they are simply going to set a plan for an invasion without U.N. support and that should lead to a sell-off. However, the reactions to these announcements have been very hard to predict and if they instead come to yet another compromise, we could could still get that run at 8000 or 8150.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  12:40:25 PM
From 1352 to 1255, the following is the fib retracement: 1328, 1315, 1303, 1292, and 1279.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  12:38:29 PM
Looking at the 60 minute candles, I see an outside/bearish engulfing reversal at the top, and a pause now just underneath. I not up on my candlesticking, but isn't that a doji top? Well, either way, it's large and red, and whether it's a pause or the beginning of a shallow pullback, or the beginning of a full-on reversal is anyone's guess. Many bulls are waiting to buy a pullback from the highs. I'll work out some fib retracement levels to try to help us pick likely spots, but by memory, I'd watch 1332, 1325, 1318-20, 1312, 1309, 1302 and 1298 from here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  12:38:09 PM
Cymer (CYMI) $24.85 -5.15% ... stock dropped quickly from the $26 level over last hour after an analyst at A Hoefer & Arnett made comments about concerns over possible longer-term laser damage with its Nanolith 7000. He believes that CYMI probably has a solution to any problems, however believes the company is seeing pricing pressures from customers because of lower margins at comparable sales levels. The analyst said he like the stock, but closer to $20. A quick check of point and figure chart finds a bearish vertical count of $19, but bear would need to get through that bullish support trend first. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  12:36:27 PM
Down volume now leads up volume on the Nasdaq, perhaps backing up the relative weakness seen in the semis today, with the SOX being the first to fall beneath its five-minute 21-pma and its short-term ascending trendline and turn red. Advancers still lead decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, however. Volume is heavy today, with 748 million shares traded on the NYSE and 847 million on the Nasdaq. If the SOX is leading today, it's leading down, but it has many support levels beneath its current 307.27 level, so anything can and may happen by the end of the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  12:19:19 PM
Bloomberg TV Interview with floor trader in S&P futures pits. His "key level" for S&P cash is to see SPX above 853. This isn't too far from this week's R1 of 850.4. I'll make a little note of this, and perhaps look for his "key level" of resistance in future matrix analysis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  12:06:33 PM
Flour (FLR) $32.95 +4.63% ... stock has really bolstered its move higher from 09:51:27 comments and has jumped to test bearish resistance trend. Day-trader long probably parts ways here, but stock's bullish vertical count now grows to $46, from yesterday's preliminary count of $40 after double-top buy signal. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  12:05:52 PM
Jonathan mentioned the simple 200-dma in respect to the COMPX. This morning, the SOX came within five points of its simple 200-dma at 317.75 before beginning a slight pullback. A move below 298.98, the 50% retracement of yesterday's larger-than-normal white candle would be considered bearish, the 100-dma, 50-dma, and 22-dma all lie beneath the current SOX level, perhaps providing layered support all the way back down to 288.43, the location of the 22-dma. A move and close above the simple 200-dma would be considered bullish, but then would face the exponential 200-dma net, currently at 338.35.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  12:04:14 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We are getting a pretty big fade off the highs and the yields are all back in the red. SOX is negative, as well. COMP is now negative and I think a high of 1352 constitutes a failed run at 1350. I am leaning bearish from here (how many times have I said THAT this morning?) but I'm not so sure about that lean as to put on a position for the weekend and also commit the time decay to that position. I still think the bears have a potentially profitable position if they used the COMP stop loss at 1360 and I'm wondering if the run to 7931 was the failure at 8000 I was looking for. I really wanted something closer to 8000 after such a strong reversal signal and since my stop would likely beat least 8060, if not 8170, I am going to keep my fingers crossed for another bump to that level for a better risk/reward entry.

Once again I suggest traders take a look at the futures monitor to play some shorter term moves since we are whipping quite a bit.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  12:01:48 PM
This is clearly a break of the 5 minute upward trendline on my COMPX chart with a print at 1339. We know the levels to the downside, next at 1332. This is the first violation of the trendline since the launch began yesterday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  11:50:02 AM
The OEX currently tests its five-minute 21-pma again, slipping a little beneath that moving average at 425.80 and also challenging the ascending trendline that has been supporting its move up since Wednesday. The SOX has already slipped beneath both its five-minute 21-pma and its ascending trendline. The VIX is green again, up .54 to 36.47.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  11:43:57 AM
The COMPX is back to testing the ascending trendline and is just below its 200 dma at 1351.36. I've always thought of this as the "Mason-Dixon" line between bull and bear territory, but in fact it got violated this year briefly before the 200 day EMA turned back the advance. To give you an idea of the gulf between these two MA's currently, the 200 day EMA is upstairs at 1416 COMPX. Call it 1350 or 1351, but this is the level to watch at this stage of the advance. A violation of this level could potentially bring 1416 into play, although there are other significant levels to clear first. Anyone remember 1377-80?

The indicators are pretty much unchanged during the past hour, with the exception of the TICK.NQ which is now negative at -108.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/14/03,  11:43:28 AM
TIN $40.10 (+1.05)

Mark..watching tin here....it had a spike above 40...does that(in your opinion) cause concern as for failure at 40....like maybe being nulified??

I've lost my charts over the past hour, so flying a bit blind. But my broker window shows current price sneaking over the $40 level and I would consider this a point of concern for the bears. My comment earlier this morning was centered around the stock faiing to get over the $40 level, and with the market continuing to bid, it appears TIN is finding buyers as well. Stop remains at $40.25 and the key will be to see the stock turned back below that level this afternoon. As I mentioned, a rollover near the $40 level would make for a solid entry on a risk/reward basis. But make no mistake, it does carry significant risk, as it is a bearish play near resistance in an overall bullish market -- at least for today. Another burst of short covering could take out our stop later today, and tht would motivate us to drop the play this weekend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  11:34:52 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  11:34:16 AM
While yields play catch-up, as Steve mentions, the VIX does, too, only in the opposite direction. It is down on the day, now at 35.84.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  11:32:01 AM
As indices move to new highs, I turn to the SOX ten-minute chart and am surprised to discover that the SOX has slipped beneath the ten-minute ascending trendline that began forming Wednesday, after the SOX moved out of a period of consolidation. Scanning other ten-minute charts, I note that the BIX has also done so, although the BIX currently rises to test the broken trendline again and may be in the process of moving back over that trendline. The UTY broke under a similar trendline yesterday, and has since been climbing the underside of the trendline. The OEX, DJI, COMPX, and NDX all remain above similar trendlines, showing divergence from the BIX, SOX, and UTY. All of these remain above their 21-pma's on the ten-minute charts, however. It may be that the ascending trendline was so steep that the SOX, BIX, and UTY simply will reestablish a new and less-steep ascending trendline, but this might be interesting to watch.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  11:27:35 AM
Swing Trade Signals
5-yr and 10-yr yields finally starting to play catch up - now in the green.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  11:15:57 AM
Blair refuses to answer a question about the post-Hussein era from a Kuwaiti news agency, saying that he wants to focus on the Israeli/Palestine issue before them.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  11:15:16 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Even with the Dow back over 7900, the COMP is still finding resistance at 1350. Those aggressive traders for whom I suggested a stop of 1360 may still have an eventual successful short play on their hands. I'd love to see the Dow creep higher again to 8000 with the COMP still finding resistance at 1350. I might step back in short there. I don't heave a great feel for the trend today and as the day wears on, I will also have to deal with sure time decay over the weekend as well as trying to predict direction. That factor weighs against entering a position to hold over the weekend today, but does not eliminate the possibility. 5-yr and 10-yr yields are still in the red, which is bearish for the equity rally. They are not heading south, more moving sideways, but the action indicates that the asset allocation that fed this rally may be over for the moment.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  11:09:27 AM
Tony Blair speaks now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  11:08:06 AM
The right shoulder of our tentative h&s pattern on the QQQ intraday bounced off the ascending trendline from yesterday, and seems to be invalidating the pattern before it completed.While yields are still in the red, the COMPX seems to want to continue to walk higher. The TRINQ confirms this at .59 should solid net buying pressure, and the TICK.NQ at +168 isn't contradicting it. Precious metals are in the green today, for a change, with HUI and XAU well off yesterday's low, +3.45 and +1.55 respectively. Spot gold is above 337/oz.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  11:07:51 AM
The OEX once again approaches the day's high at 427.15, with the OEX currently at 426.46.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  10:56:13 AM
Volume patterns show more advancers than decliners today, but ratios are rather neutral at 1.19 on the NYSE and 1.18 on the Nasdaq. Up volume is 1.3 times down volume on the NYSE and a somewhat stronger 1.5 times down volume on the Nasdaq. New highs and new lows are roughly equal. Total volume is 368 million shares traded on the NYSE and 477 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  10:47:20 AM
Anyone notice that the VIX has been up today, currently up .58 at 36.51? This particularly interests me because of my 10:24 post. On July 5, the day that the DJI printed such a bullish-looking reversal signal, the VIX was completing a three-day reversal signal of its own--a bearish one, just as it did yesterday. The next trading day, July 8, the VIX was up and continued to climb in succeeding days. Again, I'm not suggesting that a deep slide in the markets will now commence as the VIX commences to climb, but only pointing out reasons that I'm standing aside as yet from entering long positions.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  10:45:21 AM
QQQ is printing what could be a head and shoulders on the intraday chart today. The right shoulder will be formed with a print below 25.65, but it's difficult to project accurately because the neckline is sloped upward slightly. A return to the highs from here invalidates the potential pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  10:40:40 AM
So far, the OEX keeps bouncing off its five-minute 21-pma, currently at 423.21, below the OEX's current 424.31.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/14/03,  10:40:10 AM
Bearish traders looking to fade the early rally this morning have a couple of viable targets on the OIN put list that are catering to our whims. First up is LLY, which rolled over right at the $55.24 level, exactly yesterday's afternoon high, before rolling back under the $55 level. Now trading at its low of the day near $54.50, a break below that level looks good for the bears. The other play that is looking good is TIN, after failing to top the $40 level. This is important resistance and rejections from this level look good for new bearish entries on a risk/reward basis, with our stop set at $40.25.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  10:40:00 AM
I've turned my weekly chart into a mess of intersecting trendlines, and roughly 1343 COMPX is one of them. The attempt on 1350 failed and 1340 appears to be setting up for a restest as support. Yields are showing indecision around the unchanged line. Same for the TRINQ and TICK.NQ. Only the QQV is unreservedly bullish, down 2.96 to 38.91.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  10:24:40 AM
Here's one reason for my wait-and-see attitude before piling on with long positions. Take a look at these two snippets from the Dow Jones daily chart and see how they compare. I would also note that the 21(3)3 stochastics, MACD, and RSI all were positioned similarly in the two time periods, although I haven't shown them on these snippets. Link Link One of these two snippets was from a period that ended with July 5th's big white candle. The other is from the period that ended with yesterday's big white candle. If you take a look at the DJI in July, you'll note that on the next trading day after July 5th (July 8th), the DJI initially moved up thirty points and then began a slide that ended on July 24, with the DJI at July lows. I most definitely am not suggesting that the same thing will happen today and that all market participants should go short, but I am suggesting that bear-market rallies can look terribly convincing when they occur. This has me standing aside and not entering any long positions as yet.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  10:20:09 AM
Swing Trade Signals
So far that rally has failed at 7900 as the COMP topped out at 1350. Aggressive bears looking to pick a top might see this as a possible entry point. I'm not so bold at the moment after a big turnaround got some continuation, but I do think the failure is bearish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  10:19:50 AM
I show the OEX coming up now to challenge one version of the broken H&S neckline. OEX 429-430 should provide strong resistance, but resistance hasn't mattered lately. I note that on the daily chart, RSI has bumped back above a broken trendline formed from a series of higher lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  10:14:45 AM
Something I haven't seen for a while: A solid column of green on my screen, with only a few bands of red.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  10:14:02 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 7,903 +1.04% ... on the move after Bush speech and no mention of Iraq. Best levels of the session here with WEEKLY R1 of 7,960 in reach.

Treasuries now seeing selling and bolstering equity moves higher.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  10:13:11 AM
The COMPX is now pushing at 1350 resistance. TRINQ .34, QQV -2.88, TICK.NQ +470, FVX +1.8 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  10:12:05 AM
Adobe Systems (ADBE) $30.24 +5.9% .... today's trade at $30 triggeres triple-top buy signal. Link

Late yesterday, company reported Q1 (Feb) earnings of $0.25 per share, which was 3-cents better than consensus. Revenues rose 10.8% year/year to $296.9 million, which was well above consensus of $282.2. Company is targeting Q2 revenues of $300-$315 million, with consensus estimates at $308.9 million.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  10:10:46 AM
The OEX bounced from that ascending trendline that began forming yesterday morning, with the five-minute 21-pma and daily 21-pma both positioned nearby. Perhaps investors were reassured by Bush's address, too, with a confluence of technical factors and relief contributing to the bounce.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  10:09:43 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Good thing I sat on my hands (GRIN) ahead of the President's speech. Benign speech followed by a rally. Certainly looks bullish and highlights just how sensitive these markets are.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  10:07:46 AM
Bush and Powell spoke and did not declare war. This appears to have put a bid under the market, but I'm only guessing.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  10:07:24 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Steve....You scared me with the 8130 exit number on the alert!!..I thought my data feed was down!(grin)...CP

Thanks for pointing out my typo! My 9:31:34 post had the number 8130 instead of 7830. Right now I am having some technical difficulties accessing that post to alter it but we were stopped at 7830, just to be clear.

I posted this in red to make sure anyone just paying attention to the entry/exits wouldn't miss the correction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  10:06:25 AM
President Bush speech has ended. Powell didn't say anything. Speech has ended, no question/answer.

Dow +40, SPX +2.76, OEX +1.84, NDX +7, QQQ +$0.15.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  10:05:23 AM
The fed has added a 6 day repo in the amount of 5B, which is a net addition with no expiries today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  10:04:28 AM
Markets bid back to unchanged as Bush begins speech. Early notes are Palestine/Israel and NOT Iraq. Seems to have stocks trading in relief that it isn't about Iraq at this point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  10:04:16 AM
FVX has gone green, +.2 bps

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  10:01:23 AM
Bush/Powell begin speech in Rose Garden.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  10:00:05 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 7,804 -0.23% .... off 18 points and just now slipping back under its 21-day SMA. Zone of resistance from 7,860-7,890, look for overlapping support from WEEKLY/MONTHLY retracement at 7,761-7,761 near-term.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  9:59:23 AM
FVX is sinking back down, -1.8 bps as the COMPX prints new lows, closing in on 1332 support.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  9:57:56 AM
Zimmer (ZMH) $47.80 (+3.13) OI call play ZMH gettting a big boost this morning after raising revenue and earnings guidance. It did top out at $47.95, which is a $4 gain for call holders and conservative traders may want to take their profits here following the announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  9:56:29 AM
The OEX unsuccessfully retested the 50% retracement of the first five-minute candle, moving back up to 423.23 before dropping. However, I note that it has so far halted right at the five-minute 21-pma at 421.32, just above the key 420 level. Keep watching.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  9:55:37 AM
Gold is up .20 to 335.70, while HUI and XAU are up more strongly, +2.08 to 119.85 and +1.42 to 65.47 respectively.

FVX is down 1.5 bps, actually rising here. Equity bears should take note- this could portend a bounce in the making if the trend continues.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  9:55:03 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I am awfully tempted to step back in short here with the SPX break below 830 and the two 5 min closes below the opening range. However, with the Presidents news conference on tap I'm going to sit on my hands for the moment.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  9:51:27 AM
Boots&Coots (WEL) $0.58 +13.7% .... on the move here. No news, but think rise is on speculation/rumor of U.N weapons inspectors leaving Iraq.

Fluor Corp (FLR) $31.70 +0.66% ... also showing a bid.

Halliburton (HAL) $19.63 +1.02% ...

Three stocks thought to benefit from potential burning of oil wells in Iraq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  9:50:19 AM
Michigan Sentiment preliminary reading for March is 75.00, which was below the 78.0 consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  9:49:23 AM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,029.51 (unch) .... morning low has been 1,025.83, but has been either side of our WEEKLY 19.1% retracement of 1,028.13 and just looks to be gravitating either way. Session high so far has been 1,035.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  9:47:54 AM
European markets continue to ease off their highs of the day, with the FTSE 100 now up 75.80, the CAC 40 now up 90, and the DAX now up 59 points. These markets await our economic data, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  9:43:57 AM
We're seeing red in the OEX now, as Steve mentioned. Theoretically, that 423.84 level I mentioned earlier should now be resistance. The OEX is moving back toward the 420 area that has provided both support and resistance and we should learn much from a test of that level. There's currently a (very) short-term ascending trendline on the OEX five-minute chart that would be violated on a move below 420, and on the daily chart, the 21-dma is at 420.48. With more economic numbers to be released soon, anything could happen.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  9:42:50 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX) 830.78 -0.16% ... right at its WEEKLY Pivot here. Today is last day of the week, but may be an important level near-term. Would expect a sideways trader here with slight bid in Treasuries.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  9:41:28 AM
That was more selling than I've seen since Wednesday, which isn't saying much. The COMPX has dropped below 1340 support, while the FVX remains down 2.3 bps, off its low of the morning. Red is breaking out on my screen, with the TRINQ actually above 1.0, currently 1.11, TICK.NQ -168.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  9:40:13 AM
Swing Trade Signals
No real follow through on the opening rally and I think a 5 min close below 7820 would look bearish from here. Was my stop too low? Seeing red in COMP, SPX and OEX now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  9:38:09 AM
The 50% retracement of the first five-minute OEX candle is 423.84. The OEX is currently dipping below that level, but it would require at least one five-minute close below that level to say conclusively that we've had a violation. Theoretically, that 50% level should serve as support if the OEX is to continue to move up throughout the day. I'm not sure theory works well in this emotion-driven market, but let's watch.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/14/03,  9:31:50 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  9:31:34 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were stopped out on the short signal when the Dow traded 8130 at 9:30:30. We are now flat.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  9:31:17 AM
4 point gap up open on the COMPX to 1344, TRINQ .46, QQV -2.43 to 39.44.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  9:23:55 AM
Swing Trade Signals
One other note is that yields are down, failing to confirm the current rise in futures and futures have come well off their highs. Bears looking for an alternate stop can use one above COMP 1350, which should be strong resistance, as well. I suggest 1360 for those aggressive bears.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/14/03,  9:20:45 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are currently short a 1/2 position with a stop at 7830. It appears we will be stopped out on the open. The next level of obvious macro resistance is the 8000 level in the Dow, where we have failed on the last couple of attempts. The rallies just prior to that died just below 8050, with the exception of one trip up to 8075 on Feb 18, where the last big bounce from 7628 ended. Prior to those attempts we were rangebound with a ceiling at 8150-8160 and a floor just above 7900. If we are truly seeing a major reversal, then these will be challenges for the bulls to overcome. If this is simply an oversold bounce, then we should run out of steam at one of these levels.

I am going to leave the long plays just below that resistance to the more aggressive traders rather than jumping on long just below resistance. My next action points will likely come on tests of 8000 or 8150. If we manage to get through the 8160 level, I may start out with a small long position and then add to it as we cross the head and shuolders neckline break level at 8200. For now I plan on remaining flat if stopped out (which is mostly certain unless something changes in the next ten minutes) until we test the above levels. Traders looking to play shorter moves between where we are now and those resistance levels can turn to the Futures Monitor.

Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
The current stop is set at Dow 7830.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  9:07:42 AM
As Germany issues an advisory urging its citizens to leave Iraq, and Bush and Powell announce a 10 ET press conference, ES futures contracts move beneath an ascending trendline that has been in place since yesterday morning on the all-sessions chart. They have not dropped beneath the ascending trendline that was begun from Wednesday morning lows, however. That would not happen until a drop below 830. Futures now trade at 835.80. European markets have eased slightly, too, although all still post strong gains, with the FTSE 100 now up 86.30 points, the CAC now up 97.20 points, and the DAX now up 61.60 points.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  9:07:14 AM
From the "not bullish" morning file:

The U.S. current account deficit soared 28% in 2002 to a record $503.4 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. The current account deficit amounted to a record 4.8 percent of gross domestic product for the year.

Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  9:02:10 AM
Bond yields have begun to slide, not by much, FVX -1 basis point, TNX -1.3, TYX -.2 bps. QQQ is now trading 25.73. High energy prices and producer price inflation cause cost-push inflation, which, combined with persistent unemployment and the resulting effect on productivity can cause what my old economics texts referred to as "stagflation". This is a side comment, because the markets aren't exactly tanking on the news, with QQQ off by 15 cents or so since 8:30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  8:44:26 AM
As we saw last month with similar PPI data, the price of gold has added a bit since 8:30 EST when the data was released, and the US Dollar Index is correspondingly down, but well up since yesterday, currently challenging the 100.00 level. Bond yields are flat in positive territory, FVX +.7 bps, TNX +.4 and TYX unchanged. QQQ is trading down from its 8:30 high of 25.89 to 25.78, up from its close at 25.62.

Yesterday's action was a very powerful rally that blew through very significant resistance levels, vaporized them, actually. We spend over 1 week between 1300 and 1320 COMPX- and it took a couple of hours to get taken out. My own feeling is that the action is explained by the low volume decline with the relatively high put to call ratios we saw. Shorts and hedges being pulled in seem to have created the "buy at any price" action we saw yesterday. The TRINQ with its microscoping readings throughout the day told the whole story. Whether the market flagpoles from here or holds at the top is the question- I'll be quite surprised to see an immediate pullback, for the simple reason that such has not happened with any of the big bear rallies we've seen since last year.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/14/03,  8:35:37 AM
Wholesale prices increased more than expected with the PPI +1%, but excluding food and energy fell by .5% in February. January inventories rose by .2%.

Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  8:23:21 AM
Earlier this morning, European markets had been moving off their highs, but just before 6:00 ET this morning, they began climbing straight up. The CAC and DAX achieved new day's highs, although the FTSE has not yet done so. The FTSE 100 is currently up 102 points, the CAC 40 is currently up 109 points, and the DAX is currently up 78 points. Our futures began another ascent about the same time--just before 6:00 ET. About that time, news began hitting the wires that Bush would meet with Blair and a representative of Spain's government in a neutral country to discuss Iraq policy. I'm not sure if that contributed to the latest bump up in markets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/14/03,  7:00:57 AM
Good morning. Thursday's gains in European and U.S. markets spilled over into early Asian trading on Friday, with the Nikkei breaking back above 8000 by midmorning and with South Korea making gains, too. The governments and central banks of each country had been meeting to address policies to stabilize their markets, and each announced decisions on Thursday. In a plan some feel will be of only temporary help, Japan's central bank will be asked to buy more stocks from troubled lenders and the government will ease rules that have made it difficult for companies to buy back their own shares. While not quite managing a close on its high, the Nikkei did hold onto the 8000 level, closing at 8002.69. Techs were the biggest gainers. South Korea's Kospi also managed a gain of 5.8 points.

Japanese commentators mentioned being unimpressed with the government's rescue plan, and European commentators also mentioned some disappointment with Schroeder's 17-billion euro (15, according to another source) investment plan, intended to stabilize Germany's economy. Still, European markets built on yesterday's gains, with the FTSE 100 currently trading up 80.60 points or 2.31%, the CAC 40 up 98.07 points or 3.84%, and the DAX up 52.40 points or 2.23%. Insurers and other financials lead the gains, as the recent climb in equities infuses desperately needed value into their holdings. Schroeder's plan includes trimming jobless benefits and easing firing laws. All night, words such as "skepticism" and "unhealthy" were attributed to the sudden gains in world markets, countered by "time to buy" statements.

Geopolitical developments perhaps seem more ominous today, with the U.S. setting a 24-hour deadline for Turkey to decide whether to allow the use of its airbases and airspace, and with some feeling that Turkey will not meet that deadline. As Jim also mentioned in last night's wrap, the U.S. believes that Iraq has mined oil fields and may be preparing preemptive missile strikes as soon as it feels that war can no longer be averted. The U.S. may plan to move to secure the Iraqi oil fields and disable missile sites that can lob chemical or biological agents at Israel, even before an actual attack of Iraq. The logic there seems somewhat clouded, as this move would seem to be an attack. The U.S. grants that such a move might start a war. In addition, the U.S. again backs off its intention to push for a U.N. Security Council vote on a second resolution, with some feeling that such a vote would not come until next week and with some mentioning that the U.S. may decide to move without ever pressing for the vote. These developments don't seem to inspire confidence that war will be averted, but markets seem to be ignoring troubling developments after weeks of reacting negatively to such signs. Iraq says it will now give an accounting of its destruction of the VX nerve agent, and will account for its anthrax within a few days.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/13/03,  12:26:31 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Vlada Raicevic   3/13/03,  12:26:23 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/13/03,  12:26:15 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/13/03,  12:25:39 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives