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  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  7:55:56 PM
DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY pivot matrix. Link

Few if any levels of correlative resistance are present at this time. One level in the indexes that really stands out as support is found in the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) at DAILY S2, WEEKLY Pivot, and MONTHLY R2, which is 1,070.

Treasuries got "crushed" this week and I would certainly have an alert set at 3.94% on the 10-year ($TNX.X). With the "pain" that was dealt out for bond bulls and the gains seen in stocks, I'd expect some selling in the 10-year YIELD at that level.

Here's a look at the "Beetles Benchmark Balanced Fund" Link which we benchmarked from the 12/31/02 close. Note that the Lehman 7-10 year IEF, which most likely tracks a 10-year Treasury, is down 1.79% in price for the year, and it would be my best guess, that with interest received with the first quarter nearing its end, that this bond holder is just about break-even if not at small loss.

Is it too late to sell the bond and perhaps rotate some cash to the Dow and SPX wich is up just about 2%? If a bull is still a bit "skittish" about the economy, then the QQQ, which is up 11.5% might look a bit expensive on a relative basis.

It may well be the thinking in the prior paragraph that has the QQQ/NDX stalling out a bit in recent sessions compared to the Dow and the SPX/OEX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  6:56:50 PM
WEEKLY Pivot Matrix ... here's the recent 2 weeks, and next week's pivot matrix. Link

In last Friday's WEEKLY matrix correlation, there was correlative resistance from the 850-853 zone, and this week's break of that zone and trade at 855, which generated a triple-top buy signal at the SPX's p/f chart Link unleashed a round of buying that many can't believe. Heck, if I'd of "known" that was in store, I'd have initiated full positon in the DIA at $80 and SPX at 855.

And its just that type of thought that has bulls and bears eager buyers this week, with first level of support at/near SPX 875. This may make sense if you believe like I do that computer programs are using the formula from the matrix. It may not be coincidence that after a WEEKLY and MONTHLY R2 is taken out, then stock inventories at institutional houses may now be lean and need to be replenished.

Note the ferocity of selling in the 10-year bond ($TNX.X) which had YIELD trading 120% of its range. While there is some overlap of stocks between the Dow, SPX, OEX and NDX, there is no overlap between the 5-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasuries and there should be a bunch of cash still to be put to work in equities.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  3:53:38 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 894.80 +2.16% ... session highs here and threatens to close above its 200-day SMA. Would have to go back to March 5th of last year to find the SPX above its 200-day SMA. Link

MAJOR difference between now and then is that in March of 2002, S&P Bullish % was "overbought" and bulls carried the bulk of the risk at 70%. Today, bullish % just recently reversing from 30% and still some "reward" to be found. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  3:52:07 PM
Good point, Steve, about the importance of the OEX moving above its simple 200-dma. That comment made me curious, and I found that it's been even longer since the OEX closed over its exponential 200-dma. That hasn't happened since September, 2000! That moving average is still overhead at 461.57 and it looks as if the OEX is zooming up there for a test of this average.

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/21/03,  3:46:20 PM
The 3:15 update has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  3:40:06 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,500 +2.65% ... not trying to get overly bullish, but the 8,600 level not out of reach at this point with 20-minutes left in today's trade. Here's a p/f chart of Dow, with Bollinger set at 50-day with 2-std. deviations on right of chart. Link

I'm going to make a note here as it relates to "8,600" from our relative strength work, and how the Dow gave a double-bottom sell signal at 8,550 back in January. Technically, this 8,550-8,600 might serve a near-term resistance level and we'll keep any eye out for that in the updated pivot matrix later tonight. Traders that legged in with 1/4 bullish this morning at/near 8,338 that still hold 1/4 bullish from 8,500 or DIA $85, could leg out of the 1/4 bullish from DIA $80, hold your 1/4 bullish from roughly $84 today and harvest some gains. Just look to keep 1/4 bullish with objective of Bullish % above 70% before getting more defensive.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  3:37:18 PM
S&P 100 (OEX.X) 455 +2.1% ... making a move above 200-day SMA and upper-end of downard regression. Also bullish is OEX moving above its bearish resistance trend. A 3-box reversal, should it come, would be to 440 at this point and that would be correlative with MONTHLY R1 of 439.60. Bulls will press the issue here as January relative highs of 470 now look to be targets.Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  3:32:46 PM
It has been exactly 1 year since the OEX dropped through its 200-dma for the last time. That level was broken this morning.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  3:30:58 PM
Swing Trade Signals
A died in the wool bear might suggest this is just short covering ahead of a possible surrender. However, it is hard to imagine there are still many shorts left from the recent plunge.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  3:27:57 PM
The COMPX did not print fresh highs on that move and appears to be failing at the trendline attempt, once again underperforming the SPX and INDU.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  3:21:47 PM
GE is another stock that's "on the verge." It's climbed above its 200-dma's (both) and historical resistance from one descending trendline, so that's bullish, but it's still got a couple of hurdles to surpass. At 27.91, it faces the 28 level resistance from its December high, a number that will also give it a new P&F buy signal. That 28 level is significant for another reason, because a move and close above that level would confirm the double-bottom pattern from the October and February bottoms in GE. Bears (remember those?) might be expected to defend that level. Personally, I would want a second close over that level for confirmation, at least, with the markets having moved up so quickly without any significant pullback to gauge strength just yet, but then I'm skeptical of everything these days. I would be afraid of a late-day shortcovering push above that 28 level just ahead of possible consolidation/pullback next week. I do note that OBV has begun to move up, but RSI is the highest its been any time this last year, without prices being the highest they've been this year.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  3:19:12 PM
The COMPX has been struggling to get north of the latest rising trendline for the past half hour with no success, despite a sudden rush of selling in treasuries at the close, with FVX closing up 11 bps. The TRINQ is still neutral here, but the TICK.NQ is high, +567, showing ample fuel for a ramp back above the steeply ascending trendline. So far it hasn't occurred, but the persistent TICK.NQ looks like it should do the trick. Watch for a move above 1420 within the next couple of minutes for a confirmation of the bullishness. A failure on this attempt would be discouraging to buyers this close to the weekend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  3:18:20 PM
Session highs Dow Indu. (INDU) 8,492 +2.47% +205 points... bullishness continues to build on media reports that Iraq may be in third-party talks of surrender.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  3:12:03 PM
3M (NYSE:MMM) $134 +2.62% ... new 52-week high for a Dow components. Bulls like this action as one of the strongest stocks in the Dow Industrials over the past two years showing some leadership. Link

No overhead supply here and bullish vertical count of $172 still in play. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  3:10:53 PM
Currently at 454.33 as I type, the OEX makes another assault on the 454.44 level, as well as on the 454.99 day's high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  3:06:01 PM
The VIX printed a new low of the day, at 32.96, just .02 below the 32.98 March 3 low. As I type, the VIX is 33.33.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  2:55:56 PM
SBC Communications (SBC) $21.55 -1.05% ... that "eager" looking selling from the open, starting to wear a bit on bulls perhaps. Challenges BA $27.54 -1.04% for only two stocks in Dow to show a decline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  2:54:34 PM
Over the past three expiration cycles, I've noticed that Coca-Cola is one of those stocks that tends to get pinned at max pain levels. Just for fun, I pulled up a March option chain and noted highest put OI at the March 40's and then next highest at the March 37.50's. That's 18,395 puts that will expire worthless, plus another 1500 or so below 37.50's. On the call side, the highest OI is with the 40's and 42.50's. About half of those will expire worthless, as well as the approximately 3500 calls above 42.50. Anyone trading KO options should be aware of this tendency and check OI.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  2:52:08 PM
Heading into the bond market close, treasury yields are showing respectable gains but well off their intraday highs, with FVX +8.3 bps, TNX +6.8 bps and TYX +6.1 bps. The US Dollar Index peaked just below 102.20 and has pulled back to below 102.00. The TRINQ is a bullish neutral .87, ditto the TICK.NQ at +245. HUI and XAU are off their lows, and the COMPX is back to testing the latest ascending trendline just below 1416.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  2:45:02 PM
Adv/dec ratios are 2.03 for the NYSE-traded issues and 1.34 for the Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is 2.86 times down volume on the NYSE, but now down volume draws nearly even with up volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 1.3 billion shares traded on the NYSE and 1.4 billion on the Nasdaq. New highs are almost three times new lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  2:30:26 PM
The VIX once again dipped to its day low, or within .02 of the day low of 33.13, before suddenly bouncing back up to the current 33.58.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  2:29:04 PM
Swing Trade Signals
As long as the current pullback stays above Dow 8300, I think we are in bullish territory. I have refrained from entering under the war scenario, instead allowing traders to make their own decisions, but any pullback to support above 8300 would look like a good level at which to add to long positions. The 200-dmas were broken intraday for the first time in almost a year and the bullish percent data has certainly been reliable.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  2:26:31 PM
Here's yet-another update on the OEX 60-minute chart, showing the behavior of the OEX in relationship to the rising wedge. The OEX has been rising along the underside of that wedge, and once again begins to turn down. Because the OEX has climbed the outside of that wedge so long, I'm beginning to wonder if it has validity any longer or the usual bearish implications, but I can't ignore the way the candle shadows touch that line and move back. Link Whether the rising wedge holds the usual bearish implications or not, the broken supporting line has been providing resistance now. Not effective resistance, anyone in bearish plays might posit, but resistance nonetheless.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  2:18:56 PM
As soon as I sent that last post the trendline broke, in what looks like a small head and shoulders top, neckline at QQQ 27. Note that I'm watching a 3 day - 3 minute-candle chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  2:17:35 PM
We now have a third and lower ascending trendline off yesterday's COMPX low, and the gradualy climb over the past half hour is hugging it. Each of these trendlines is a little lower than the last, beginning to resemble a Gann Fan off yesterday's low. If this latest trendline holds, we're looking at a higher low here with distinctly bullish implications. QQV and VXN are off their lows, FVX is off its highs- this is either a routine pullback within the intraday trends, working off the extreme conditions for the next push. Precious metals are languishing near their lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  2:12:50 PM
Early WEEKLY pivot analysis work. Using this data, H=893.17, L=827.17 and C=888.00 for SPX, I would derive the following levels for next week. S2=803, S1=845, P=869, R1=911, R2=935.

Again... estimating today's close, but WEEKLY R1 is notable and may be a target for potential liberation of Iraq.

If SPX were to close 888, then WEEKLY pivot of 869 would be correlative with MONTHLY R1 of 868.40.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  1:59:13 PM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $13.96 -0.49% ... stock begins to lag broader market bullishness. There are "rumors" circulating that Juniper (JNPR) $9.04 -1.52% may pre-announce to downside, which looks to be impacting CSCO.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  1:58:32 PM
As an addition to my last post, I may feel that being long the financials or short a gold stock will give me a similar result to being long the Dow, so I may use those avenues as ways to achieve a bullish market result. I also tend to trade straddles and sell rallies and buy dips, so that I can profit in either direction (of course this strategy also involves suffering time decay and volatility contraction).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  1:55:07 PM
The OEX high so far today has been 454.99, a number .55 above that 454.44 number I mentioned this morning, the 61.8% retracement of the December-to-March decline. Is this significant? In normal times, I would say yes. Today, I'm not sure whether the current pullback will last only minutes before the next ascent begins and that number gets taken out to the upside.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  1:54:22 PM
steve, do you trade in your own account on the signals you give in the MM? thx

The short answer is sometimes. I am usually set up in the direction of the signals I give with my own account and I certainly never take the opposite action. However, I trade a number of different individual stocks and also the broader market, so I try to spread out my risk and sometimes I feel I have enough bullish/bearish positions on in other areas to account for the signal I am giving, without adding to them.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  1:47:12 PM
In my 1:29 post, I mentioned that I'd be watching for a 60-minute 5(3)3 stochastics breakout or breakdown from that wedge shape. When markets trend strongly--and this must be the definitive strongly trending market, oscillators aren't as useful as they might be at other times. As we've all mentioned at other times, stochastics can stay pinned in overbought territory while markets climb. However, sometimes the patterns of the stochastics can give us information that the empirical levels of the stochastics would not provide. Right now, it would be difficult to judge whether a dip in the 5(3)3 stochastics means the beginning of the long-awaited pullback or whether it means that the white candles will be smaller but that the index will climb nonetheless. If the 5(3)3's should violate that pattern in either direction, however, we'll have an additional confirmation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  1:39:43 PM
I'm shocked and awed by what I've just seen on television. Back to business. The move north in bond yields is essentially a rate hike driven by the markets. To the extend that Al Green has been draining repos for the past week, it is with the fed's consent. However, given the high levels of debt we've been discussing for the past months, and the competition that high yields pose to equities, I see little to make me long term bullish on stocks. I suspect and fear that many of the pending mortgage refis won't be getting funded as yields run away to the upside.

It's sad that the most significant moments often get clouded by emotions such as shock and surprise. This is a watershed day, and watching the markets' reaction to it, I'm struggling to absorb and retain as much of the details as possible, because it should be a very long time before we see a similar confluence of geopolitical, economic and market factors. Hopefully never.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  1:33:41 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 890 +1.62% ... challenged its 200-day SMA of 892.50 with session high trade of 893.17, but just shy of its MONTHLY R2 of 895.70.

The only levels of resistance in the Pivot Matrix that I show not having been tested are among the major indexes are... NASDAQ-100 1,102 (WEEKLY R2), SPX 895.70 (MONTHLY R2) and 10-year YIELD 4.155% (MONTHLY R2).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  1:29:58 PM
On the 60-minute OEX chart, the 5(3)3 stochastics have been coiling into a wedge. I'll be watching for a break of that wedge in either direction, although there's not much upside left in the stochastics, already far into overbought territory. RSI has been making a series of lower lows and lower highs as the OEX moves up, although it may be in the process of making a higher high now. The OEX still climbs straight up the outside of that rising wedge, after having broken down out of the wedge yesterday morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  1:25:39 PM
The TRAN moved above its exponential 100-dma and now challenges its simple 100-dma at 2243.70, with the transportation index now at 2244.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  1:23:48 PM
The VIX now sits on its exponential 200-dma at 33.74, with the VIX currently at 33.76 and off the 33.13 low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  1:21:27 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  1:15:40 PM
An excellent point- I agree with Jim.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  1:07:31 PM
Jim made a point on the futures monitor that this is not the environment for anything but very short-term swings. I agree, although I have certainly left some opportunities on the table. I don't plan on official signals today, just suggestions.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  1:05:31 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm watching the SOX, as well, for signs of strength; confirming what we are seeing in the broader markets. It is back to yesterday's highs (334) and I think a close above 331 is a good sign we could make a run at 350. Still thinking some profit taking on long positions before the weekend would be prudent, since we will be news driven and I have a hard time imagining that Saddam has no surprises as troops get closer to Baghdad. But it's just a feeling and I don't have any technical data to back me up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  1:01:40 PM
We have 3.81 advancing shares to each declining on the COMPX, 1.56 advancers to each decliner. These ratios seem awfully tame given the force of the move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:57:08 PM
We're seeing big volume today, with 903 million shares traded on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  12:55:23 PM
The TRINQ is down to .39, and the QQV and VXN are collapsing, with QQV -3.21 to 38.57, nearly a 10% decline, QQV -2.51 to 45.97. FVX is breaking out, up 12.5 bps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:55:15 PM
At 337.21 as I type, the SOX approaches its exponential 200-dma of 337.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:52:12 PM
The OEX is fast approaching the 61.8% retracement of the December-to-March move at 454.44. It doesn't look as if that number will slow it any more than the others have. Amazing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  12:48:44 PM
Looking at the HUI on the monthly candles, I see the 200 month EMA at 112.09. The chart formation on the monthly candles looks like a cup and handle formation with the handle forming. With monthly candles, however, the pattern can take a long time to play out, but by the same token, the 112 support should be firm. With the weakness in the HUI that we've been seeing, accompanied by the selloff in gold and bonds today and this month, we are approaching critical levels on those indices. 325-330/oz has been a very well advertised support/resistance area for spot gold.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  12:48:17 PM
Qualifying that last statement, the TNX still struggling to crack 4.1%, trading 40.99.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  12:47:30 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Dow breaks its 200-dma, SPX is only one of three not to cross that line yet. I look at the charts and have a hard time believing my eyes. We have seen a 1,000 point bounce in the Dow without a pullback. I can't imagine jumping in, but I've said that every day, expecting some type of pullback. So far, the trend remains up, with no signs of slowing. We have a weekend of war ahead of us, so certainly anything can happen, but just looking at the technicals, it is hard to make a case for any type of top being in place.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:44:32 PM
It bears mentioning here, too, that this is opex week, and that prices often tend to get maneuvered to optimum levels about mid-morning and stay that way the rest of the day. Of course, there's always the possibility that this rally's strength surprised market makers, too, and these aren't the optimum levels? In any case, be ready to make account management decisions if you're in March options, as what little time premium left is going to bleed away quickly now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  12:43:09 PM
Gold is down 5.40 to 327, HUI -3.15 to 116.01, and XAU -1.61 to 63.04. The CRB is down .74%, with crude down 3.27% to 27.20, heating oil down 4.42% and natural gas -3.39%. The COMPX at 1418 is pushing up against that steeply ascending trendline above the 200 day EMA of 1415.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:40:09 PM
Reader R.R. reminds me to mention that the VIX has dropped below 34, currently measuring 33.57. On March 3, the VIX dipped to a low of 32.98. Below that, look for 30 and 26 to be the next levels of importance. Bulls should keep alert here for a quick bounce in the VIX as it approaches the March 3 low. Bears should be alert for the opposite.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:33:05 PM
Here's another OEX number to put on your radar screen: the 61.8% retracement of the December 2 high to March 12 low is 454.44. This is a calculated number, so should be exact. Most reactions retrace 1/3 to 2/3 of the preceding move, but a move above the 61.8% number should call into question the possibility of a 100% retracement. This 61.8% 454.44 level would be a natural place for a pullback, too.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  12:32:51 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We continue to get more bullish signs, with the OEX through its 200-dma and establishing a bearish resistance breakthrough on the PnF chart with its trade of 452. TNX finding resistance at 41, with a high of 41.01. COMP also back above the 200-ema. Traders may want to tighten stops with Dow and SPX still just below 200-dmas, but so far nothing but bullish signals.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  12:29:52 PM
I agree, Linda. The COMPX is climbing up just below the ascending trendline. The line is at 1418 or so, price 1415. FVX is up 10.7 bps now, with bond selling accelerating.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  12:28:36 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,416 +1.57% ... on the move here and tests its MONTHLY R2 of 8414. 200-day SMA just ahead at 8,440. Quick look at 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 5.027% has cleared its 200-day and YIELD at session high. Indexes look higher still and Dow bulls, not fully relying on last night's relative strength chart of Dow vs. $UST begin to target 8,450 then 8,600.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:25:30 PM
The OEX still climbs the outside of that rising wedge shape, still defying gravity. The ascent still appears too steep to be sustained, although the straight-up ascent has been sustained so long that even this former physics major is beginning to think that the laws of gravity no longer work. There's a general thought that the stronger an initial move, the more shallow the retracement will be, so we'll be watching to see if the OEX follows that prediction upon a pullback. If it ever pulls back.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  12:17:29 PM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) today's YIELD trade of 3.05%, gets this bond's YIELD back on a "buy signal," which in essence is a "sell signal" for the bonds. 5-year YIELD hasn't been above bearish resistance trend since breaking below back May of last year. A move above 3.25% (32.50 on chart) would be "impressive" for equity bulls, and this comes in face of many looking for a Fed rate cut at next FOMC meeting.Link

However, recent action in June Fed Funds futures (ff03m) 98.83 has futures market looking for Fed Funds to be 1.17% at this point, and that's much different than MARKET view a week ago when ff03m was up at 99.00. This futures contract begins to give hint that perhaps a quick resolution with Iraq may be enought to boost consumer confidence and stimulate economy, with little need of a Fed rate cut.

This thought may be "confirmed" by the torrid round of selling we've seen in Treasuries in recent week.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  12:07:46 PM
Best levels of the session ... reports circulating and BBC reports that Saddam Hussein was probably killed in initial air strikes. I would consider this as "rumor," but did seem to have impact on trading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  12:02:54 PM
So far, the SOX has not yet been able to pierce its exponential 200-dma at 337.80, with the SOX high so far being 335.43. Currently, the SOX trades at 332.47.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  12:00:49 PM
The COMPX headfaked a move above 1412, currently blowing off in a candle spike. However, the FVX is higher to +8.3 bps now, possibly signalling equity strength to come.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  11:57:27 AM
Toro (TTC) $71.00 +1.22 We considered this stock as a call play in yesterday's pick meeting, but wanted to see a break above $70. Current bullish vertical count of $89 derived from current column of "X" looks great, but conservative trader's may want to wait for a pullback to $70 to see if it holds as support. Momentum traders getting in now can look to use a stop below 21-dma of $68.64.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  11:54:10 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  11:53:58 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Lots of tops in the TNX between 4.0 & 4.1 in early February. We are back in that territory again now. The 200-dma sits at 41.33, and coincides with the 200-ema at 41.49. The TNX now trades near its highs of the day, which is bullish for equities, and a break above 41 would be very bullish. However, if adding to bullish positions, watch the 200-dmas here, in concert with those in the equity indices for signs of a stall.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  11:51:02 AM
Volume patterns remain positive today, and have come down only slightly from earlier levels. Adv/dec ratios now are 1.44 for the NYSE and 1.2 for the Nasdaq. Up volume is 1.75 times down volume on the NYSE and 2 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Volume is high, at 643 million shares traded on the NYSE and 755 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  11:48:26 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The COMP has so far tested its 200-ema unsuccessfully. It did cross that line in the morning, but the fade is bringing back shades of a similar attempt in January. A hold above 1400 would still signal strength by bulls with a successful defense, but a close above that 200-ema would be more convincing after the sellers defended it this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  11:40:43 AM
Another very low put to call reading, now .57, as call volume remains defiantly high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  11:37:04 AM
The FTSE 100 ended the day with an 83.10-point gain and the CAC 40 closed up 95.85 points. The DAX is still open, and is currently up 84.60 points.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  11:32:46 AM
1400 COMPX appears to have held on the trendline break. A rebound taking place should test the trendline from below, currently at approx 1412-13, and a failure will send price lower, while a break back above the trendline will make this break nothing more than a headfake and place price back into the bearflag we've been watching. FVX is down a bit to +6.2 bps on the day, TRINQ .97, TICK.NQ +101.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  11:13:17 AM
Trendline broken, next test will be 1400 COMPX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  11:12:57 AM
The five-minute OEX chart shows a miniature triple top. A move below 448 should portend a move down to 445.50, although five-minute chart formations aren't reliable. This move wouldn't be tradeable even if the target were fulfilled, but watching the many possibilities surrounding this potential triple top--a refusal to confirm the triple top by falling below 448, a bounce from a higher level than the target once the triple top was confirmed, or plunge below 445.50--might give us information about the continued strength or looming weakness in the OEX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  11:07:20 AM
Price is holding its ascending trendline on the COMPX 10 minute chart, QQQ and COMPX still at their 27 / 1410 levels. The TRINQ has edged up to .54, FVX up higher to a 7 bp gain as selling in the five year t-note accelerates. The drops in NDX and Nasdaq volatility as measured by the QQV adn VXN are not as deep as might be expected, -.68 and -.48 respectively. The put to call ratio remains steadily low, latest reading at .55. I continue to await a print below 1405 to show a failure of the rising trend on the COMPX from yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  11:02:45 AM
Sellers As I look at the 5-minute charts, there's definately some sellers in the major indexes at this point. So far, I've been unable to uncover a technical level from the MATRIX, and my only "explanation" at this point is the OEX.X and chart shown in this morning's 09:00 Update, where OEX ist trying to work its way through the 38.2% retracement of 449.68, 200-day SMA of 450 and that downard trending regression channel.

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 274.41 -0.19% holding, but not participating. Most likely need the banks to get a push above morning highs in the indexes.

While OEX battles 200-day SMA, BIX.X does battle with trending lower 50-day SMA of 276.08.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  11:01:02 AM
If I were inclined to write poetry, I'd be writing the "Ode to the Straddle and the Strangle" this morning. After a lot of soul-searching and chart-studying last night, I decided that markets were poised for . . . something, but I wasn't sure what and I didn't feel comfortable making directional bets. Absolutely everything I studied seemed poised near some key level. Bullish percents that Jeff has been profiling make bullish bets seem a good idea, but then I keep studying those looming descending trendlines and 200-ema's from which markets or stocks have failed, and couldn't do it. (Jeff mentions that he's hedged his account, too, with a bearish trade on CSCO.) After devoting the amount of capital I wanted to a strangle position this morning, it's certainly more comfortable to sit back and watch the action unfold.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:52:56 AM
SBC Communications (SBC) $21.82 +0.2% ... profiled this one as bearish a couple of day's ago, just below current levels of trade for partial bearish positions. With Dow Bullish % reversing upward, I need to be cognizant that a "rising tide" is lifting a lot of boats, and while I veiw SBC as an "anchor of bearishness" I'm going to suggest stops at $22.50. Stock spiked up to $23.08 at the open, and got sold down to $21.65, but I think there may be some longer-term bears that are holding some profits that are most likely thinking like I, that some bearish profits are at risk with underlying market bullishness.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  10:52:03 AM
The Dow Jones Transportation Index has surmounted the 2090 resistance and now challenges the next level of resistance near 2200. Historical resistance and the exponential 100-dma converge between 2200-2220, and the transportation index now is 2215.30. RSI is interesting on the daily chart. From last July until January, daily RSI had made a series of higher lows, with the trendline formed from those higher lows broken to the downside in January. Now the RSI has come up to challenge that broken trendline from the underside. As it does, RSI currently measures a higher level than it did during the November and January peaks. Is this setting the TRAN up for bearish divergence? It's too early to tell, as we don't know where the current TRAN rally will end. If it ends below the January peak, then, yes, it is. However, OBV has been increasing on the daily chart since the March 12 low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:46:08 AM
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $14.23 +1.36% ... I'm still holding previously profiled 1/2 position puts in the Oct. $12.50's. Reason for 1/2 position was to "hedge" any type of Iraq negativity, but also the triple-bottom sell signal. I "understood" implication of bullish support, and feel the pain in this trade right now. Still, if things turn sour in the markets, this one may prove reward down the road. Link

here's a RS chart of CSCO versus INTC. As previously noted, I currently hold bearish position in CSCO and bullish in INTC. Link Since mid-February, RS chart shows that INTC has been outperforming CSCO.

Just recently, CSCO started "underperforming" the QQQ as depicted by the RS chart of CSCO vs. QQQ. Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/21/03,  10:44:09 AM
NOC $82.00 (-2.95) Apparently the continued positive developments on the war front aren't good for every sector of the market, with the Defense sector getting pummelled to the tune of a 2.5% loss this morning. That's certainly good for our ne wput play on NOC. Topping out this morning just above $85, before rolling over with a vengeance. We were looking at a break of the $83.75 level as a solid momentum entry, and was it ever. Since that break, the stock has traded as low as $81.68. Very short-term traders could consider harvesting gains (yes I know it's quick) near current levels, although I think we could get another downdraft, perhaps even today.

Traders that missed the early entry this morning will need to wait for a rebound and rollover before entering new positions. Remember, our downside target is $79, and with nearest definable resistance at $85, that makes for a 1:1 risk/reward ratio from current levels. Following today's sharp decline, I'm lowering the stop on the play to $85.50, just above yesterday afternoon's intraday resistance and today's opening highs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  10:43:48 AM
Commodities continue their decline, with the CRB -.31% today to 233.45, led by enegy, with Crude Oil down 2.24% to 27.49, heating oil down 2.72% and natural gas down 1.51%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:41:54 AM
Intel (INTC) $18.75 +2.6% ... As mentioned in last night's Index Wrap, INTC gave p/f "buy signal" yesterday at $18.50, and I view that trade as bullish for stock and sector. Will expect resistance at $19.50, but this shorter bearish resistance shouldn't be "too strong" as it's length is fairly short. I'm looking for $22 minimum. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:38:46 AM
Forest Labs (FRX) $53.50 +1.9% ... stock continues to try and make progress to upside.Link

As mentioned in this weekend's "Ask the Analyst" column and sector bullish %, need this sector bullish % (BPDRUG) to reverse back higher from "bear confirmed" to "bull alert" and get the "tidal wave" to push the leader higher. Need some sponsorship to push the inchworm forward! Current sector bullish % is 29.29% and needs a reading of 32% to get "bull alert."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  10:38:46 AM
Volume patterns are strongly positive in early-morning trading, with adv/dec ratios of 1.79 on the NYSE-traded issues and 1.66 on the Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume outnumbers down volume almost 3 to 1 on the NYSE and a little more than 3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. New highs strongly outnumber new lows. Volume is 372 million shares on the NYSE and 433 million on the Nasdaq. These early patterns can be distorted and not indicative of the rest of the day's trading, but so far, so good for bullish trades.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:35:00 AM
Flour Corp. (FLR) $34.94 +2.83% ... I took a 1/2 bullish position in this name a couple of days ago at $31 (Oct. $30 calls), and like today's break Link . This is also a stock that was mentioned as a stock/company that might benefit from "war with Iraq" as they are seen as potential benefitor of "well fires" and infrastructure re-build in Iraq.

Stock's p/f chart has bullish vertical count of $49 right now. Still like partial bullish calls here with October expiration, and will begin looking to round out to full on pullbacks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  10:34:57 AM
The VIX dipped as low as 33.93 today, and it's currently at 34.05 and sitting right above its exponential 200-dma at 33.75. This 34 level has been one from which we've seen some rebounds in the VIX. A failure below here might test 30 and then 26, as I think Steve has also mentioned recently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  10:33:48 AM
The put to call ratio has just come in at .56, still very low and overweighted to the call side.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  10:33:13 AM
The COMPX has an ascending trendline commencing at yesterday's lows and supporting price at current levels. A break below 1405 could be a bear flag breakdown, but a bounce higher from here could propel us to new highs. The FVX is holding at a respectable 4.8 bp gain. For that matter, all of my indicators are holding right here- clearly the market is at a decision point here, QQQ 27, COMPX 1410.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  10:29:52 AM
Currently, the FTSE 100 is up 62 points, the CAC 40 is up 79.74 points, and the DAX is up 80.54 points, with each of these pulling back a little from the day's highs.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/21/03,  10:28:48 AM
Good comments on MME Steve. I agree with harvesting some gains in the $39-40 area, as has been recommended in recent updates. There may be more upside in the stock, but I expect we see another pullback to support before being able to crack $40 on the upside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:25:32 AM
Penn Natl. Gaming (PENN) $19.37 +1.41% ... Jeff: I took a bullish trade in PENN per comments you had made in the market monitor sometime back. Today, the stock really jumped strong. I didn't see any news, but like the way it has traded. You suggested just partial positions to start with, but the stock has broken above its 200-day SMA. Should I add to this position? Also... could you give me a bullish target to shoot for? Thanks.

I don't see any news either, but this was a sector that was starting to show some stocks giving new point and figure buy signals where the sector bullish % was improving from a lower level. I can't find any "news" to explain yesterday's surge. However, the bullish vertical count Link is $23.

right now, I'm not able to use Professor Davis' study for the triple-top buy signal of $17.50. It was actually this triple-top which had me commenting on the stock in the market monitor on February 28th (01:11:35 which was actually a Saturday) Link , which at that time, has the sector bullish % in "bull alert" status. Since then however, the sector bullish % slipped back into "bear confirmed" status. However... current bullish % has started to recover once again and currently is at 41.94% and a reading of 42% would once gain have sector bullish % back higher. A reading of 44% would be "bull confirmed" and then... we can use Professor Davis' Study, which has the triple-top buy signal being profitable 87.9% of the time, for an average gain of 28.7% in 6.8 months. If sector reverses back to "bull confirmed" stauts, a 28.7% gain from $17.50 would give additional target of $22.52.

So... bull's target is $22.52-$23 using Professor Davis' study and bullish vertical count.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  10:25:23 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Traders will note the proximity of pivot levels to the 200-dmas.

Dow: 200-dma 8439/R2 8433

SPX: 200-dma 892/R2 892

OEX: 200-dma 450/ R1 449.9/ High of the day 450

I mentioned in last night's wrap that the OEX would give us our first 200-dma test and so far that test brought out some sellers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  10:21:00 AM
The SOX once again heads for its exponential 200-dma at 337.82, with the SOX currently at 334.51. Last May and December, it was the failure of the SOX to sustain moves over this particular average (not the simple 200-dma, which it did move above in May) that sent the SOX back down. In December, the SOX managed one close a few cents over the average and it pierced it intraday a few times before it plunged back to February lows, so I'd look for at least two days of closes over that average before feeling safe in bullish conclusions. A two-day close over this moving average would seem significant. Be careful, whether in bullish or bearish semi-related trades as this is another of those "key" moments.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  10:16:47 AM
Mid-Atlantic Medical (MME) $39.33 (+0.80) OI call play MME, entered at $34.80, found a top today at $39.60. That is above resistance from late October/early November, but $40 could also provide some round number resistance, as it did in June 2002. Traders can think about taking some chips off the table here. Aggressive traders will note that the next level of recent resistance is up in the $42-$43 range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  10:13:59 AM
The US Dollar Index is flying, now above 101.60. Bond are selling faster, FVX +5.9 bps. Precious metals are weak, HUI -.93 to 118.23, XAU -.52 to 64.13.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:11:42 AM
Woooosh! Dow Indu (INDU) 8,377 after pullback low of 8,344, which was getting pretty close to 8,338 pullback entry point for bulls.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) at morning high of 4.048% with selling in the bond.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/21/03,  10:10:34 AM
ADBE $32.21 (-1.86) Well, I guess that extremely bullish move of that past week couldn't last forever! WR Hambrecht spoiled the party this morning with a downgrade to Hold, based on valuation and a pause in bullish catalysts until the mid-quarter update (late April) and Acrobat 6 launch (mid-May). Firm issues a $31 price target and suggests that prospective buyers look for entries near the $29 level, which would give 5-10% upside to the firm's target price.

As a side note, this rating change has an upleasant smell to me. Not so much because I disagree with the downgrade, but the questionable value of the trading advice that accompanies it. The firm is telling investors to buy a stock at $29 for a potential move to $31. Does this make sense to you? From a purely technical standpoint, that gives $2 of potential reward and $3 of downside risk using the ascending trendline at $26 for support, or $4 of risk using the $25 level required to print a PnF Sell signal.

I don't personally think we've seen the highs for the stock for this move, so I see more upside potential that WR Hambrecht does. But when a firm that is supposed to be filled with smart guys helping investors to responsibly manage their investments is advocating new trades with a 1:2 reward/risk ratio, my skepticism of the value of analyst comments is once again reaffirmed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:09:10 AM
GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 106.89 -2% ... software sector continues to exhibit some weakness after Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) $11.56 +0.52% earnings a couple of days ago.

Intuit (INTU) $38.77 -23% Link is today's "problem" for the group after late yesterday's lowering of 2nd-half outlook when company reduced 2003 guidance to a EPS range of $1.30-$1.35 on revenues of $1.65-$1.69 billion versus prior guidance of EPS $1.38-$1.42 and revenues of $1.71-$1.77 billion. Company said they were disappointed to see a sluggish economy that was worsening in the past few weeks with a decrease in customer spending in all categories.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  10:07:36 AM
Here's an update of the hourly OEX chart, showing the OEX still climbing the outside of that rising wedge shape after breaking through it. Pring and Meyers warn that these are the shapes that bear-market rallies often assume, which urges caution for bulls and a guarding of stops. However, as I mentioned several days ago, a sustained sideways move out of that wedge, while the hourly stochs cycle back down to oversold levels, would be a signal that the rally was more sustainable than the shape portends. These chart formations provide us with warnings and promises, but those warnings and promises aren't always fulfilled. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  10:07:30 AM
The opening put to call ratio of .51 is showing no-holds-barred call speculation, which is bearish. That said, the shallowness of the pullback off the morning highs is quite bullish. The TRINQ is low at .44, reflecting that intense buying pressure, QQV and VXN flat, TICK.NQ +91. FVX is reflecting solid selling in bonds, +4.3 on the day. 1415 COMPX remains a critical pivot level.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  10:07:05 AM
Northrop Grumman (NOC) $83.14 (-1.81) OI put play NOC following the Defense Index (DFI.X)lower. There looks to be little support between current levels and $80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  10:02:37 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 273.69 -0.45% ... banks lagging the broader market bullishness here. Major index bulls would like to see firming intra-day at 273. Correlate this perhaps with Dow 8,338 right now.

Dow Industrials trading 8,353 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  9:59:20 AM
The OEX pulled back to 448.71, almost exactly the 50% retracement of the first five-minute move, before moving up again, and has just now tested that level again. So far, so good for the bulls. Note that 449.69 is the 38.2% retracement of the October to December move (and pretty close to that for the July to August move, too, since those moves nearly duplicated each other). These are key levels, if you haven't heard that said enough. We've got the retracement level, the simple 200-dma at 450.22, and a December-to-now descending trendline all at current levels. Those watching weekly linear charts would note that an even longer-term descending trendline crosses right at those levels, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  9:58:55 AM
Per 09:52:41 I should add.... some traders that may be looking to first leg into a position in the DIA from bullish side, no need to now be in-the-money $80's. The $84's would also be suitable in my opinion.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/21/03,  9:54:07 AM
LLY $57.61 (+0.98) Pop goes resistance! With the broad markets gapping up again this morning and trading strong on the continued good news from the war front, LLY gapped over our $57.10 stop and is holding strong. While we may see a pullback later today, unless the bears can exert enough pressure to drive the stock back under $57 (preferably under the $56 level), there's no future in the play and we'll be dropping it this weekend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  9:52:41 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,355 +0.81% ... look for a Dow pullback here to 8,340, watch for firming, then will take 1/4 bullish on move back above 8,350 in the Sep $80 DIAMONDS calls (DAVID).

A 50% retracement of first 5-minute bar on Dow is 8,338, and all be darned if that's not also the 38.2% retracement from conventional retracement shown in last night's Index Trader Wrap.

In my opinion, this level 8,338 should hold support on pullback. If bullish position entered, then "first test" to upside resistance is morning high of 8,388.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  9:51:43 AM
The VIX's puzzling behavior this week piqued my interest. I've been checking Market Monitor archives from the Wednesdays and Thursdays of the last two opex weeks and note that we were often commenting on the VIX's strange behavior during those weeks, too. The VIX might have dropped while markets dropped, as it did yesterday morning, or might be moving opposite to its usual relationship to market behavior. The VIX often dipped to support levels during those Wednesdays and Thursdays, whatever next support was during those months. From my search of past archives, then, I'm wondering if we should give less weight to the VIX's behavior during opex week than we might at other times.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  9:50:06 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Looks like we ran out of steam 50 points shy of the 200-dma in the Dow and we may see some profit taking after the big run as we approach that level. Traders who are long need to be aware of that logical level for taking chips off the table. The OEX, which broke through its bearish resistance line on the PnF chart using a 2.5 point box, has now crossed above the same line on the traditional chart. That line sits at 448 and requires a trade of 452 for a complete breakthrough.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  9:48:00 AM
Al Green is taking no action today, and so 2.5B in expiring overnight repos will drain today. Perhaps a little "mad money" for the weekend with Andrea.

The 200 day EMA was exceeded at the open and then bulls got whipsawed on the reversal back into yesterday's range.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  9:44:31 AM
Swing Trade Signals
While I like long positions here, I probably wouldn't add to them until we break the 200-dma. As we get closer to that level, I'd be tightening stops. Not sure the news in the war could get a whole lot more positive than what we've seen (with the exception of course of the U.S. helicopter crash) for the markets, so I'm wondering what more we could hear to keep this rally going. Certainly a Saddam surrender, but at this point it would be hard to find anyone who deosn't think this will be a quick victory for the U.S.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  9:38:54 AM
The OEX first five-minute candle has now been completed, with the 50% retracement of that first five minutes being at 448.76. As I mentioned yesterday, I feel silly listing these levels because downside violations don't seem to have much relevance these days, but bulls want to see the OEX stay above that level, and bears want to see the OEX sustain moves below that level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  9:36:15 AM
A gap up with the COMPX now 4 points above the 200 day EMA, currently trading 1419, TRINQ .52, TICK.NQ -194, QQV -.12 at 42.03, VXN flat.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  9:29:13 AM
The 200 day EMA is just overhead at 1415 COMPX and is likely to get tested or exceeded at the open. In December, the COMPX had two daily prints above it before turning back down, and today is the first revisit to that level since the January highs.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/21/03,  9:28:37 AM
ERTS $58.95 Looking for a positive open on our ERTS play this morning after Bear Stearns upgraded the stock to Outperform, based on relative sector positioning., EA.com rationalization and higher insulation to software pricing pressures. At the same time, the firm lowered their view of the Interactive Entertainment Industry (Gaming) to Market Weight, saying checks indicate retailers are marking down games over a shorter period than they did last year. Consumers have caught onto the cycle and are taking more of a "wait for a marked down price" approach.

Recall that we have been looking for a trade near the $60 level (major resistance as well as the site of the 200-dma) to harvest gains on the play, in expectation of a subsequent pullback, and with ERTS trading just shy of $60 in the pre-market, it appears we'll get that opportunity this morning.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/21/03,  9:24:17 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Not a bear to be found. This morning's gains certainly appear as though no one wants to be short ahead of a weekend that could see a quick end to the conflict and a surrender. The Saddam rumor certainly has aded to that sentiment. The big question will be whether the rally will hold on Monday if there is no surrender. Yileds are now higher, supporting the rally and it appears likely that we could make a run at the 200-dmas highlighted in last night's wrap. It looks like we'll have a big gain at the open and I'm not going to set a trigger at 8300 since traders likely won't be able to get in until much beyond that level, but I do like long positions right now and expect some follow through if we don't get any adverse events. I do think it is a surrender-anticipation drive, but the recent uptrend is still alive and well. I would be concerned about those 200-dmas, which have been unpenetrable for almost a year now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/21/03,  9:21:29 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  9:09:11 AM
2.5B in overnight repos expire today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  8:40:36 AM
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The February level of 183.1 (1982-84=100) was 3.0 percent higher than in February 2002.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.8 percent in February, prior to seasonal adjustment. The February level of 179.2 was 3.2 percent higher than in February 2002.

Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  8:36:51 AM
ABC News is reporting this morning that witnesses saw Saddam Hussein carried out of the bombed complex on a stretcher Wednesday night, an oxygen mask over his face. Whether true or not, this is likely to be market-moving news.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  8:34:13 AM
Yields are lightly negative at the open of treasury bonds, QQQ down to 27.05 on the CPI data- hardly a negative reaction given the large overnight gain from its closing 26.80 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  8:31:45 AM
Feb CPI up .6%, exceeding expectations of .5% , core up .1%. This should put a bid under gold and commodities, and signals another squeeze on corporate pricing power as most of the surge is accounted for by high energy costs. Cost push inflation benefits neither consumers nor corporations, yet equities seem to be holding up well so far. For more detail, see this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/21/03,  8:29:35 AM
Yes, Linda. I was encouraged by news last night to the effect that anti-war protesters were taking the trouble to emphasize their support for the troops in the field when voicing their disagreement with the policy that had put them there. My prayers are with the soldiers and their families and the innocent civilians, all of whom hope for a speedy end to the conflict.

The 3AM Geyser went off on cue, with the ND3M contract almost touching 1100 before settling back down to its current 1092, ES3M currently 882.5. QQQ is trading 27.12, and the US Dollar Index broke 101.50 briefly, currently just above 101.40.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/21/03,  6:46:07 AM
Good morning. Japanese markets were closed today for a holiday, but some other Asian markets were open. To combat a sluggish economy, the South Korean government will spend 53% of its 2003 budget to fund building projects, much as China has been doing to combat unemployment. South Korea's central bank lowered its estimates of economic growth rates. It now anticipates a growth rate of 5% for the first quarter, down from a growth of 6.8% in the previous quarter. The bank attributed a slowdown in consumer spending to the lowered forecast. Still, financials and engineering companies led the South Korean Kospi to its fourth consecutive gain in as many days. The market closed up 1.3%.

Despite news that perhaps as many as 30 Iraqi oil wells have been set on fire, European markets continue the war rally today. With the land war beginning, market participants feel more confident that the war will end quickly. They were perhaps also buoyed by the reassurances of ECB President Wim Duisenberg that the ECB would take measures to stabilize the markets and encourage growth if the Iraqi war weighed down the Euro economies. As I type, the FTSE 100 had climbed 90.10 points, the CAC 40 was up 103.87 points, and the DAX had climbed 83.38 points.

The U.S. has suffered its first casualties in the war, with a Marine helicopter crash and the breaking news this morning of a first hostile fire death. We will all keep the families of these soldiers in our thoughts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/20/03,  11:15:46 PM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Vlada Raicevic   3/20/03,  11:15:39 PM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/20/03,  11:15:33 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/20/03,  11:12:04 PM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/20/03,  12:28:33 AM
S&P futures (sp03m) settled at 874.80 ... quite trade here at 875.00

 
 

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