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  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  3:57:23 PM
The COMPX is gliding sideways into the close. The TRINQ has risen to 3.5, but the 1378 level never got firmly challenged before COMPX gave up, currently just off the lows of the day, trading 1373. Whether today turns out to be a retrace off the highs, a "B" wave correction before a strong "C" wave to take us to new highs, or the resumption of the secular bear trend after a corrective wave up will depend, in my opinion, on the 1380 s/r zone. Below that level, it looks bad for the COMPX with most shorts blown out last week and most recent bulls already committed and now under- or just treading water.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  3:42:16 PM
President Bush meets with congressional leaders this afternoon, with a discussion of the costs of the war on the agenda. President Bush will announce those costs to the nation tomorrow, from the Pentagon.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  3:26:43 PM
Swing Trade Signals
For those bulls picking a bottom at OEX 440, I'd suggest a stop around 436. This is below the 437 level that Linda has pointed out is the 50% retracement of the Aug-Oct hi/lo range and was the bounce level last Wednesday and Thursday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  3:25:33 PM
It's early to say so, but 1378 COMPX has been holding as resistance thus far, without any penetration by the price. QQV is trading both sides of 40.00, matching Linda's observation of the VIX dropping off. The TRINQ is holding up at 3.31, steady selling pressure, while the TRINQ has dropped off a little to -157. This continues to look like a steady distribution of stock near the lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  3:15:10 PM
The VIX is dropping fast, to 34.21, its lowest level of the day.

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/24/03,  3:13:54 PM
The 3:15 update has been posted: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  3:12:22 PM
We're back to looking for next resistance again instead of next support. Closest resistance is the consolidation range from 442.20-443.20 or so from this morning.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  3:00:02 PM
Swing Trade Signals
If not for that explosion, it appears that OEX 440 would have held as support. Which leaves us with a conundrum - do we buy a support level that still seems significant, or do we step back and realize that previous support/resistance is no match for news events right now? I favor the latter, but aggressive bulls can try bottom picking here, with a stop below today's lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  2:58:40 PM
GE's prices have been pinned between the exponential and the simple 200-dma, with the simple below GE's 26.83 current price, at 26.60, and the exponential above, at 27.20. As I watch the prices fluctuate by a penny or two, I also watch the 21(3)3 daily stochastics redraw themselves, alternately flattening and then hinging down slightly. Those stochastics are registering the highest numbers they've registered since August, when GE was trading above 32, but stochastics can move lower while prices consolidate, as well as while prices dip. As I mentioned last week, there are mixed messages to be found in a study of GE's chart, with some bullish and some bearish.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  2:55:58 PM
We have a bounce off the lows just approaching resistance at 1378-1380. The TRINQ is higher at 3.15, FVX higher at a 13.8 bp loss on the day, and the TICK.NQ almost flat at -70. The price action at this resistance level is critical as the COMPX spent most of the day consolidating at this level. Support once violated becomes resistance, and a failure here will be very discouraging to the numerous longs who bought during Thursday and Friday's sessions and all of whom are now underwater.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  2:48:09 PM
Apparently the explosion was due to a propane tank and possibly a demonstrater, not a terrorist attack. That accounts for the last dip and rebound.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  2:47:40 PM
The VIX's movements today have been capped by the 21-dma. As we did week before last, we're seeing the VIX fall quickly on the slightest hint of a move up. As I typed this post, the VIX has moved up nearly .20, but currently remains below 35, at 34.91.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  2:41:49 PM
Volume patterns remain strongly negative this afternoon, with adv/dec ratios at .26 for NYSE-traded issues and .27 for Nasdaq-traded issues. Down volume is an astounding 19 times up volume on the NYSE and 10.8 times up volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 872 million shares traded on the NYSE and 961 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  2:38:11 PM
The DAX ended the day down 166.69 points or 6.14%, moving down to 2548.37. The DAX stays open longer than the FTSE 100 and CAC 40, so had more time to be buoyed by rallying U.S. markets Friday afternoon and more time to be driven down by plunging U.S. markets this afternoon. Still, the FTSE 100 fell 3.05% and the CAC 40 fell 5.67%. All other European markets fell 3% to 6.38% today, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  2:32:13 PM
We saw a quick drop to 438.85, just above the 50% retracement of last week's move and then just as quick of a bounce back up into the 440-441 range that's been holding prices since about 1:15 ET.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  2:18:09 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Now that Dow 8200 and OEX have fallen, I am wondering how much of last week's rally was short covering ahead of a possible surrender over the weekend. If those shorts were holding up the market by covering posiitons, then we may have more downside in the near future and may not be seeing a buy the dip opportunity.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  2:17:31 PM
Associated Press reports a "huge explosion" near US Navy Fleet in Bahrain.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  2:13:56 PM
The CRB isn't getting murphied for a change, as it sees a flat to lower day supported mostly by gains in oil and natural gas, with crude up 7.02% to 28.80, heating oil up 4.22% and natural gas +2.34%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  2:09:45 PM
The last few minutes saw the OEX rise up to test broken 441 support and then fail from there. The battle is far from over, since as Steve and others have been pointing out, OEX 440 is strong support, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  1:58:11 PM
The COMPX has now erased all of the gains from the Thursday lows, and is now testing that support level, current level 1372. Little instruction is offered from our indicators, which continue to hold at their recent levels, with almost no change.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  1:53:34 PM
As Steve mentioned, OEX 440 is the next level to watch. Below that comes the 438.29 level that would be a 50% retracement of last week's gains. A look at retracements as applied to the rally off the March 12 low indicates a 38.2% retracement of the recent rally occurs at 434.92 and a 50% retracement occurs at 428.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  1:47:24 PM
The COMPX is taking an exquisitely slow fade lower, now trading 1374. I'd be expecting a bounce, but the TRINQ keeps edging lower- price is declining as selling pressure eases. The FVX is down another basis point, now -16.2 bps on the day. HUI and XAU are holding most at the current level, and the TICK.NQ remains low at -351.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  1:44:57 PM
Currently at 13.57, CSCO moved down from its simple 100 and 22-dma's today, both near the day's high at 13.71. CSCO fell back below its exponential 200-dma on Friday, perhaps presaging the drop today. The 200-dma is still below at 13.27, and perhaps might provide support if CSCO were to continue a decline. On the daily chart, CSCO has been forming a series of lower highs since January's peak, and in March, temporarily violated a 12.75 low that had been the lower end of its range since early November. Since November, daily 21(3)3 stochastics have been making a series of lower highs, and this time, turned over from just beneath the overbought level. RSI also has been making a series of lower highs, but only since January. MACD has been forming a series of lower highs, too, and is currently flattening out just above the flatline. OBV appears to be turning down again after moving up from October into December. These formations look bearish, and 21(3)3 weekly stochastics also cycle down, but with emotions driving the markets, surprising things can happen.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  1:35:55 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Picking a bottom? Not sure if I'm ready to do that yet, since we have yet to see any buying in anything but bonds. However, that OEX 440 level has been pivotal in the past and now that Dow 8300 has fallen, that might be the next level to try small long positions with stops just below it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  1:34:05 PM
Here comes the test of OEX 441. I caution that there are sometimes false moves about this time of day, as market makers test conviction to the downside or upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  1:21:11 PM
On the OEX five-minute chart, prices crawl right the 21-pma, currently at 441.70, with the OEX currently at 441.55. Five-minute candles grow smaller, indicating that it might soon be time for a bigger move. The shape of the consolidation is difficult to discern, as it could be a bearish right triangle with a base at 441 or it could be a shallow wedge. Either way, this is a five-minute chart formation and so probably not reliable for ultimate market direction. With either formation, it would be necessary to wait for a breakout or breakdown to determine likely direction. A break and close below 441 would confirm bearishness, and might portend a next test of 440 and then 438. Looking back over notes for the last week, I found many references to 438, an apparent magnet for OEX prices lately.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/24/03,  1:01:49 PM
Now that the 1-week war expectations have been effectively taken out of the market, we'll get to see just how much buying conviction actually exists. Friday's stellar gains have now been removed from the market (and then some), and this might be the dip that traders are looking for. But if it is, that buying interest has yet to show itself.

Several of the OIN Call plays have pulled back to defined areas of support. Now we just watch to see whether they can bounce from those levels of support.

MXIM - Today's profit taking has the stock back under that descending trendline, and the most likely level to provide support for a bounce is in the $38-50-39.00 area, precisely where the stock currently finds itself.

MME - Actually holding up fairly well today, MME dipped down near the $38.50 level in early trade and is now clawing its way back, just now inching its way over the $39 level again.

BVF - After finally closing over the $40 level on Friday, BVF has retraced back into the $39.00-39.50 support level where it spent most of its time last week. This may be a decent entry point here, but eager bulls may want to temper their enthusiasm with the daily Stochastics starting to roll over from overbought territory. Time will tell...

BCR - A stellar performer throughout last week, BCR has given back Friday's gains today, now finding some support near the $62.50 area. Given the sharp rise since the stock broke through the $60 resistance level, caution is warranted here. Since the stock rose so sharply, identifying solid support on a pullback is rather tough to do. $62.50 could be the bottom for this pullback, as it is the bottom of Friday's gap, but if it fails to hold, we'll be looking for support down in the $61.50 area, just above our stop.

While we have certainly worked off a fair amount of Friday's extreme overbought condition, we must remain cognizant of the fact that the market (and these specific plays) can do anything in this volatile and war news-driven environment.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  12:58:02 PM
The COMPX continues to consolidate near its lows. I'd smell a bounce here, but there's little sign of it so far. FVX is down 14.1 bps as the buying in treasuries remains strong. The TRINQ is down to 2.83 without any corresponding rise in the COMPX, just relieving the oversold extreme so far. The TICK.NQ at -247 is still solidly bearish. On the other hand, HUI and XAU are off their highs, and QQV is down a touch, now up 1.96 at 40.88. I still like my earlier suggestion of trailing stops. When 1377 lets go, it should be a quick trip to the mid 1360's and then 1351 or so. If 1382 cracks to the upside from here, well... just recall that we were at 1421 on Friday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  12:50:18 PM
Careful, bears: On the OEX 60-minute chart, both the 21(3)3 and 5(3)3 stochastics have dived all the way into territory indicating oversold conditions. That's a predictable move, given the steep falls in the OEX today, but just as last week's overbought stochastics didn't give much hint of how much upside there was left, those oversold stochastics will no longer give hints of how much downside there might be left. The 21(3)3's remained in territory indicating overbought conditions from the 13th all the way until this morning, and that can also happen with oversold levels, but watch your stops. Bulls, too. If there hadn't been such a steep drop at the open and a war going on, today would have been one of those "all ducks in a row" days for me, when volume patterns, VIX levels, bond yields, and the direction of gold and the dollar all would have been cooperating with the direction of the markets. I wouldn't have entered a directional play today because of the steep drop on the open and the likelihood that war-related factors could impact the markets, but, so far, they all point to continued downside. Famous last words.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  12:26:03 PM
Currently at 2182.36 and below the 2190 support, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has retraced almost all of Friday's gains, and will do so on a move below 2170.50. It's far too early to tell how the day will end, but if there is not a significant bounce by the end of the day, this important index will print a tweezer top formation--with today's big red candle testing the same or similar highs and lows as were tested on Friday's big white candle. While tweezer tops are minor reversal signals and not major ones, the fact that this comes with larger-than-normal candles printed just underneath 2260 resistance might lend extra bearishness to the formation. Let's see what happens by the end of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  12:17:56 PM
The five-minute OEX 21-pma may begin coming into play in bounce attempts now. That moving average has dived down to meet the OEX, with the moving average now at 442.20, and the OEX just below that level, at 442.02.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  12:08:29 PM
MMM $131.14 -3.23 MMM giving back a big part of its gains from Friday. However, this stock had found a ceiling at $131 on each of the market rallies over the past several months before breaking out on Thursday and Friday. Looking at the intraday chart, that $131 level is acting so far as strong support and aggressive bulls looking to play a market bounce may want to think about stepping into a partial long position just above $131 with a tight stops below $130.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  12:08:01 PM
So far, each weak rally attempt has been met by sellers before the OEX approaches the just-failed level of support/resistance. That next level for the OEX lies above in a consolidation range from 442-443.50. With the lunchtime lull beginning, now might be the time for the next upside attempt to be made. What about next support? Now that 442 has been breached, historical support at 440 coincides with the monthly R1 at 439.60. Below that is the 50% retracement of last week's total move, just above 438. Note: I'm pointing out these possible areas to watch for observation only and not suggesting points at which plays might be entered or exited. As I mentioned last week, I've been waiting for a pullback to observe how the OEX behaves--for example, a shallow dip and bounce or deeper dip and tepid bounce? A more than 50% retracement of last week's gains would preclude the "shallow dip" scenario, but wouldn't necessarily preclude a bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  12:01:16 PM
Linda, you have no idea. My problem has been getting confused between 1280 and 1380, because both of those levels have been repeating since last year with great regularity.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  11:56:36 AM
Jonathan, do your fingers automatically type 1378 and 1380? Those COMPX numbers keep coming into play, don't they, month after month?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  11:49:08 AM
Volume is respectable at 659M NYSE and 590M COMPX. That "bounce" had all the loft of a lead zeppelin, and bond yields remain very weak as money continues to flow into t-bills, FVX -13.6 bps. The TRINQ is remaining moderate at 3.32, TICK.NQ -379.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  11:39:44 AM
The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 have now closed, down 117.80 and 166.71 points, respectively. The DAX still trades, and is currently down 140.89 points. These are losses in the 3-5% range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  11:35:16 AM
Volume patterns remain decidedly down, with adv/dec ratios at .26 for NYSE-traded issues and .26 for Nasdaq-traded issues. Down volume is 16.7 times up volume on the NYSE and 13 times up volume on the Nasdaq. New lows outnumber new highs. Total volume is 459 million shares on the NYSE and 506 million on the Nasdaq. Some of these patterns are extreme.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  11:29:28 AM
It's near 11:30 ET and a time for the markets to make a move toward next support or next resistance. On the five-minute charts, the OEX is currently moving to the top/outside of a down-sloping regression channel that's been containing its prices since the first five-minute drop. Closest OEX resistance lies at the location of the five-minute 21-pma at 443.73 up to 444.30, the weekly pivot, both in areas of light historical resistance, too. Stronger resistance is up near the hourly 21-pma at 446.32, and then of course higher, near the daily 21-dma and S1. As with downside support, upside resistance is layered in close intervals, so it's difficult to pinpoint in advance the resistance level that would stop an upward move.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  11:17:11 AM
At 322.96 as I type, the SOX has been turned back from its test of the exponential 200-dma, currently at 337.45, but remains above its simple 200-dma at 313.58. I like to watch the exponential 200-dma's because it's often this average rather than the simple 200-dma's that turn back prices. Experiment with your own charts, as the simple seems more important for some stocks or indices, and the exponential seems more important for others. On the SOX, COMPX, OEX, and SPX, the indices I watch most often, the exponential has seemed of more importance lately. For example, the SOX pushed above its simple 200-dma in one day's move without even a pause, but the exponential has come into play for three days now. The SOX is still within reach of either of those moving averages today, although it doesn't appear at this time that the exponential will be challenged again today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  11:15:23 AM
The COMPX is finding support at the lower end of the 1380 support range, currently 1378. The price action below the gap is printing what might be a bull flag. On the other hand, an anecdotal statistic I've been considering is that only a vast minority of gaps that don't fill within the 1st hour fill later in the day. Something like only 5% or so of such unfilled gaps get filled after the 1st hour. On that analysis, it means that the COMPX will not be bouncing from here. However, simple stats like that are suspect, and every trading day is a fresh day. The blown-out shorts aren't there to support this market, and so the dips aren't as buyable as they've been throughout this year.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  11:12:03 AM
The drop in equities is mirroring the spike in crude oil futures, which bounced from a previous level of congestion. Here's a look at the chart. Link . This relationship between equities and oil prices has been very consistent, as it reflects both global concerns and the impact of fuel costs on U.S. businesses.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  11:08:32 AM
On the 60-minute OEX chart, the 5(3)3 stochastics have broken that wedge or pennant to the downside now. The longer-term 21(3)3's are now rolling, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  10:47:55 AM
The OEX now prints three "O's" beside the column of "X's" that gave the OEX its new P&F buy signal. Is this pullback the next buying opportunity? It may be too early to tell. If the OEX pulls back too far, it could give a high pole warning. It's not close to doing that yet.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  10:46:09 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Now that we have erased all of Friday's gains and more, I'm watching the Dow daily S2 as next support at 8212. We have already broken those S2s by a hair in the SPX (869.2) and OEX (442.3).

Current levels: Dow 8257/SPX 868.44/OEX 442.24/COMP 1378

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  10:43:10 AM
Here's an update of the Russell 2000 chart I've been showing from time to time over the last couple of weeks. This morning, the Russell dives back toward a supporting line that it's already breached once. The 21-dma curls along that line, with both being breached to the downside with a move below 359.35. Many market participants watch the Russell, so it might be important for us to watch it, too. Expect small cap bulls to defend the 359-360 area. A failure at that level might call into question the sustainability of the rallies on the broader markets, too. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  10:40:37 AM
As expected, the bounces have been weak to non-existent so far. Even the commercials got whipsawed on this one, at their lowest level of short exposure this year. QQQ is now printing sub-26.30, and the TRINQ has relented to 3.44, a much more moderate reading than the 6.3 panic readings seen near the open. GE is down 3.89% so far, C 3.98%, INTC -4.44%, and QQQ -3.31%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  10:36:18 AM
Currently at 2197.20 and down 66 on the day, the Dow Jones Transportation Index has fallen beneath historical S/R in the 2200-2200 area and now approaches 2190 S/R.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  10:29:45 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Dpw 8300 support has given way and we are testing lows in the Dow/SPX/OEX/COMP. The 8300 closing support actually coincided with intraday support in the 8240-8285 range and intraday bottoms in the SPX around 869-870. However, picking a bottom below 8300 would be very tricky and I'm not yet inclined to do so.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  10:29:08 AM
Al Green has stepped up to the plate with a 4.75B 10 day repo. This is a net addition with no expiries today. I expect to see it plunked into t-bills or to support the US Dollar a bit, and would be surprised to see it wind up in equities.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  10:29:04 AM
At 443.72 as I type, the OEX has now moved below the weekly 444.30 pivot. Watch for closes below that level. Within a few minutes, we'll know if the OEX did have an hourly close beneath its 60-minute 21-pma at 446.17, as it appears likely it will have. The OEX has had only one hourly close beneath this MA since March 12. The linked chart shows the OEX falling away from the rising wedge shape that had contained its prices during the early rise off the March 12 low. That shape is usually bearish, and often is the shape taken by bear-market rallies. However, last week when the OEX first broke out of the rising wedge, it climbed the outside of the formation instead of dropping quickly, as usually happens when these bearish wedges are broken to the downside. That adds doubt about the implications of the rising wedge. Today's behavior may give us more information, but bears and bulls both should be alert today. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  10:18:54 AM
So far, the OEX hasn't managed even a near approach to the 450 level, much less a move above that level, but this is a risky trading environment. Support is layered beneath the current OEX level at about 2-point intervals. The weekly pivot is just below at 444.30, for example. Next historical support beneath that levels lies near 442, also the area of the daily S2 at 442.30. Below that lies historical support between 437.50 and 438.50. A 50% retracement of last week's move would occur at 438.29. Bulls want to see the OEX hold above one of these next levels of support or even move back above 450. Bears want to see the various levels of support fail, and particularly to see them fail as easily as they were breached last week.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  10:15:43 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We ticked dow to Dow 8292, but have not yet managed a 5 min close below 8300, Now sitting at 8302, but OEX has ticked below 445 and SPX now below 875..

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  10:13:59 AM
The put to call ratio is .93- high but nowhere near extreme after last week's round of .50-ish readings.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  10:10:28 AM
On the 3 day chart, 3 minute candles, we have a head and shoulders top that formed and projected a fall to QQQ 26.50, downside objective now fulfilled. 26.50 is the trendline that has supported the upper end of this rally, one giant flagpole formation, and what happens next will be key. A solid violation of this support will begin filling gaps. With shorts blow to bits last week, support will be much weaker than we've grown accustomed to seeing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  10:10:17 AM
Although it's too early to draw too many conclusions from volume patterns, as they're sometimes distorted in early trading, they're all negative this morning. Of particular note is the more than 18:1 ratio of down volume to up volume on the Nasdaq and the 12:1 ratio of down volume to up volume on the NYSE. Adv/dec ratios are a markedly low .29 for the NYSE-traded issues and .28 for the Nasdaq-traded issues. Unless we're going to have one of those waterfall days that have been mentioned, these numbers will probably not be sustained during the day. Their extremes are most likely due to the distortions we often see in early trading, but they will have far to go before showing positive patterns.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  10:09:53 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Continuing to find support at Dow 8300 (low of 8306), as well as the 200-pma on the Dow's 5 min chart. However, no sch luck from that average on the SPX or OEX. Each bounce in the Dow so far has been-ill fated with an eventual lower low intraday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  10:04:45 AM
Last week, I mentioned that the 5(3)3 stochastics on the 60-minute OEX chart were coiling into a pennant, and that I would look for a breakout either direction as a clue to OEX direction. Stochastics aren't particularly useful in a strongly trending market, but sometimes the chart formations on stochastics can prove more helpful than the empirical numbers. Just now, the 5(3)3 stochastics appear to be testing the lower line of that pennant shape, but haven't yet broken through. The 21(3)3 stochastics have hinged down and appear ready to roll, but this isn't the first time that they've appeared to do so since March 12. Hourly RSI continues to make a series of lower highs and lower lows and now registers 51.44.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  9:59:16 AM
Gold is up to 330/oz, HUI +2.23 to 118.73 and XAU +1.29 to 64.44. The TRINQ is at 6.04, which is an extreme reading. Extreme. It's the seller's equivalent of .10 to .15, as we saw last week and the week before. This tells us that we are either at a blowoff bottom, or the start of a significant wave of selling. This is why I recommend trailing stops here- there's no way to know which it will be at the moment.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  9:53:26 AM
The VIX is up 1.85, to 35.47.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  9:52:07 AM
The OEX steadied near the 445 level that was resistance on March 19 and 20, before the OEX finally broke through that level on the afternoon of the 20th. The simple 100-dma also lies at 446.68, perhaps also helping to steady the OEX at this level. Watch now for a retest of the 449.31 S1 and 449.95 simple 200-dma. Bulls want to see a sustained movement above these levels; bears want to see failures here.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  9:49:02 AM
Swing Trade Signals
As we hover over 8300, we are getting that support I was talking about. Is this an opportunity to step into long positions? Possibly for aggressive bulls it is. However, keep in mind that if we continue to get disappointing news from the war front, we've got big gains to give back.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  9:47:12 AM
I'm hearing that James Cramer is saying that the rally still lives. For those who have been following my comments on the likes of J.J. Cramer, Dan Niles, Abby J-C et als., this is an excellent contrarian indicator.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  9:44:38 AM
The OEX now moves below the 60-minute 21-pma at 446.23. It had one hourly close below this moving average on March 20, but other than this single close, the OEX has not been below this moving average since March 12.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  9:44:16 AM
The TRINQ has just touched 5.31, dipping to 4.99. The TICK.NQ is climbing to -60 so far. The extreme TRINQ is showing either a brief hysteria round of selling in the COMPX, or the start of a more concerted wave to take us to lower levels. I suggest putting a trailing stop on shorts here. I expect traders to buy the bounce, but given the commitment of traders reports showing a significant reduction in short positions (no kidding!) on last week's furious ramp, support will be weaker than it might otherwise have been. The only buyers will be the few diehard shorts looking for an exit, and new longs who now have to put their money where their mouths are.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  9:41:06 AM
The first five-minute OEX candle's range was from a high of 453.66 to a low of 447.02. The 50% retracement of that candle is at 450.34, near the OEX simple 200-dma at 449.95 and also near today's S1 at 449.31. A failure to reclaim 450 would then predict a move back down to next support, but those predictions haven't been holding lately. Be careful.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  9:40:38 AM
Current levels: Dow 8336/COMP 1389/SPX 876.81/OEX 446.14

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  9:39:33 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We have now taken out the S1 levels in the Dow/OEX/SPX/NDX. From here I am watching Dow 8300 very closely, although that would leave us about mid way between S1 and S2.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  9:31:25 AM
31 point gap down to COMPX 1390, TRINQ 3.44, TICK.NQ -321, QQV +2.33 to 41.25.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  9:21:11 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Apparently this war is not going to go as smooth as many traders were betting it would. The pullback overnight and this morning appears to be a reaction to that fact. If we are looking at only the technicals, buying the dips appears to be the winning strategy, but bulls who have profitable positions may want to tighten stops, take some profits and wait for the next level of support to become apparent. Based on the Dow 8300 level acting as strong support for months at a time last year, it appears that buying any dip that finds support above that level would be the highest percentage strategy now that we have gotten big bullish percent rebounds. However, with the war driving the market, the daily news may render that strategy moot.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/24/03,  8:42:23 AM
Bonds are being aggressively bought, with the FVX -12.2 bps, TNX -10.7 and TYX -6.9 bps. The NDX futures have vaporized Thursday and Friday's gains, currently 1069.50, SPX currently 878.75, with the US Dollar Index down to 101.06, down almost 1% since its close. QQQ is down 64 cents to 26.53 in premarket trading on Island ECN.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  8:40:27 AM
The FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are all down more than 100 points this morning. News of pipelines burning in Iraq and civil unrest in Nigeria drove crude oil prices off their four-month lows from last week. Gold is up, and the dollar is down. U.S. futures trade sharply down.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  8:09:51 AM
CNBC is reporting this morning that Saddam Hussein's address last night included praise of an Iraqi commander who surrendered to U.S. forces in one of the first battles. Hussein's mention of specific sites of battles led some to conclude he was still alive, while others suggested that the address still could have been filmed before the war's start, since the likely sites of the first battles would be known ahead of the war.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  6:37:29 AM
Good morning. Within a short time after opening today, the Nikkei blasted up more than 200 points, to its biggest gains in four months. Exporters gained on hopes that the Iraq conflict would be quickly resolved, at the same time that U.S. futures were dropping on the realization of the tolls that street-to-street combat would take. The Nikkei closed up 240.02 points or 2.9%, at 8435.07. South Korea's Kospi lost 1%, however, not being as immune to worries over the Iraq war as the Nikkei apparently was.

Turkey allowed overflights for the first time Monday, but that approval came after the U.S. began absorbing news of U.S. wounded, killed, and captured. The U.S. also confronted the likelihood that a U.S. patriot missile had probably been responsible for the downing of a U.K. plane and that a U.S. combatant had attacked fellow troops with grenades. Late last night, U.S. time, rumors were hitting the wires that U.S. troops had discovered a chemical weapons factory, but that news was soon overwhelmed by another Saddam Hussein appearance on television. In this appearance, he mentioned some of the sites of battles in the last week. While some labeled the appearance "live," Pentagon observers did not do so. Those observers mentioned that it would have been easy to predict that these cities would be the sites of major attacks, and that the address could have been staged before battles began. These commentators mention that no specifics of the battles were given and that abrupt shifts in camera angles meant that the appearance was taped and had been edited. In the tape, Hussein appears more collected than in last week's tape. While reading in both appearances, this time, he did not use the glasses seen in last week's tape.

In addition to this news comes the report this morning that a U.S. Apache helicopter had been shot down, with footage of the downed helicopter shown on Iraqi television. U.S. officials were reported to have confirmed the downing. NBC news is apparently reporting that a possible second chemical weapons plant has been discovered and is being examined.

European markets are proving less immune to the war news than the Nikkei. Insurers, retailers, travel-related sectors, and telecoms are some of the sectors declining today. Telecoms were affected by France Telecom's announcement that it would sell shares to cut debt. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 110.10 points, more than 2.5%; the CAC 40 had fallen 98.29 points, more than 3%, and the DAX was down 108.22 points, almost 4%.

 
 
  Leigh Stevens   3/23/03,  10:10:28 PM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Vlada Raicevic   3/23/03,  10:10:11 PM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/23/03,  10:09:43 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/23/03,  10:09:07 PM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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