Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  9:26:52 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  9:14:16 PM
Sector Bullish % ... Jeff I was wanting to research stocks within the sectors on your bell curve where the sectors went bull confirmed recently in the 32 to 40 area. i was trying to find on the dorseywright site where they listed all the stocks within a sector.. could not find it in their site or their book. can you give me the url or make life simple and suggest 4 or 5 stocks in several of the sectors that went "green" CAT was a good start. happy to run the stocks thru my own system/business plan but always interested in your input.

Yes! Lots of encouraging comments from traders regarding the sector bullish %. Lets say I'm using Tom's site and sector bullish % (I am too and use it for my "stock picks") and want to look at some stocks in the "machinery" or BPMACH sector. When you are at www.dorseywright.com, you can pull up a chart of BPMACH, which is the Bullish Percent Machinery chart. Now, once you've got that chart up, do you see at the top of the chart how "Component Tickers" is underlined like a "link?" Click it and it will give you a list of stocks that they have classified as "Machiner/Tools."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  4:17:02 PM
HealthSouth (OTBB:HLSH) ... moved from NYSE listing of HRC to "pink sheet" or Over The counter Bulletin Board (OTBB).

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  4:02:56 PM
Steve, Can you please explain exactly what a swing trade is ? I thought is was a trade that was set up and intended to last longer that 1-3 days unless target is met or stopped out. I must say that I have been somewhat dissapointed in your swing trade models as I view the 30 & 60 min charts there is a possible set up ona H&S formation for a possible swing trade approaching. Yet I have heard nothing regarding this possible set up. It appears more and more that this site is becoming a day trading platform on the indexes and few of us have the time to watch our monitors all day. Please look at the 30 & 60 min charts and comment. Thanks

I would certainly leave a trade open if it were runnning in my favor and through my targets, but the fact that my trades are intended to run for several days has kept me on the sidelines during the war, since we have seen a news driven market and I'm really not sure what tomorrow will bring in the war effort. I think I see what you are talking about with the H&S idea, but I think it is a stretch to consider the pullback on March 20 from Dow 8277 a left shoulder. (I may be wrong about your H&S observation, but that is the closest thing I can find). I'll do my best to set up what I think might happen over the next several days and I believe my last recommendation was for aggressive bulls to enter long at OEX 440, with a stop at 436 (below the 50% retracement of the Aug-Oct range at 437 that also served as support last week). I have also said that I would leave that stop in place, but conservative traders could have placed one at 443 earlier today and been out by now. That is my only current recommendation in play right now. My other suggestion was for a short below 436, however, that suggestion was never approached. I am sticking to suggestions right now because I think the environment is extremely high risk right now and any development in the war seems to send us flying in either direction. I do think the rising bullish percents favor a "buy the dip" strategy, but the trick is picking the dip - which I have tried to do at OEX 440.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  3:57:16 PM
What can we say about today's trading? Not much that's definitive. We had strongly positive volume patterns and a falling VIX, but markets seemed trapped between next support and next resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  3:36:47 PM
On the OEX, the pullback tested the 442.50 level that had confirmed the double-bottom pattern on the five-minute chart. That level has been a magnet for the OEX at certain times during last week's trading, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  3:33:47 PM
The COMPX is now trading within a range between 1382 and 1390 with little guidance from the buried TRINQ or the fickle TICK.NQ. HUI is back to almost flat, a 5 cent loss on the day, XAU +.34 to 63.27. QQV and VXN have fallen but not drastically so, and near term direction remains up for grabs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  3:15:14 PM
The COMPX has failed to test support on this so-far shallow pullback, now back to the 1390 zone. The TRINQ is back down to .28, TICK.NQ up to -66.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  3:10:33 PM
Genzyme (GENZ) $35.78 +3.2% ... Jeff: Thanks for all the good advice. Could you please take a look at GENZ; it seems to have a triple top (Dec, late Jan, late March), no news in the horizon either.

Yes, a trade at $37 would be a triple-top buy signal. Link However, right here, I have a hard time pulling the trigger on a long or new long entry as the stock did achieve a bullish vertical count of $33.50 (column of X from $18.50-$23.00) and sector is still "bull correction" status. This is a "strong stock" in a somewhat weak sector right now, but worth monitoring for sure. Would prefer a pullback entry to low $30's, give some room to $27 to avoid a "shake-out," but looks longer-term bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  3:04:23 PM
Unable to push markets above the next resistance, the markets head down to test support yet again. The VIX dipped below 33 again, reaching a low of 32.74, before rebounding a bit to the current 33.37 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  3:00:15 PM
The FVX led the way again, as 1390 support gives way. The FVX is now down 1.4 bps, QQQ 26.44, TRINQ rising to a still-extremely overbought .30 reading, TICK.NQ -251. We know the levels by heart from here. COMPX 1382-1378 is support. If it holds, bulls will celebrate, but if not, that will make today's sudden launch a corrective wave within a larger move downward, implying lower lows off of Friday's rally top.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  2:44:40 PM
Volume patterns remain strong, with up volume six times down volume on the NYSE and eight times down volume on the Nasdaq. Volume is 898 million shares traded on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios remain strong, too, with advancers being twice decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  2:41:34 PM
MME$39.75 +0.71 OI call play MME, entered at $34.80, is once again testing resistance at $40. If it clears that level it could be a quick shot up to $42. However, with a gain in price of almost $5, traders may want to consider taking some chips off the table if it is unable to clear the $40 hurdle.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  2:34:43 PM
CEPH $41.36 -0.89 OI bearish watch list candidate seeking out new relative lows once again. We talked about entry on a move below Friday's lows, which we got early yesterday. Now that we are approaching $40, I would probably wait for signs of a bounce before recommending new entries. However, for those in the play, I see nothing to show a trend reversal.

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/25/03,  2:33:13 PM
MedImmune (MEDI) $33.93 +1.65: After several days of consolidation in the $32-$34 range, MEDI looks like it could soon be making a move to the upside. Shares are outperforming the biotech index (BTK.X) with a 5% gain, and the daily stochastics (5,3,3) appear to reverseing from the mid-level. With no resistance directly overhead, traders could watch for a move above the relative high ($34.15) or the May 2002 high of $34.32 to offer a bullish entry point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  2:27:13 PM
The COMPX seems to be gathering energy for another push higher, but it is still firmly within this afternoon's range. The TRINQ is still at extreme levels at .25, QQV -1.39 at 38.75, and the TICK.NQ at +408. Despite this bullishness, the FVX has faded down to a gain of 1.6 bps, well off its highs. My conclusion based on Linda's last post and my foregoing observations is that overall, this market is a danger for all but short term positions. The sheer force and magnitude of the moves we've seen this months makes it a "traders' market" only, as much as I dislike the expression.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  2:23:02 PM
This morning, there was a danger to bears, since markets apparently could not break through to lower levels. This afternoon, there's a similar danger to bulls if markets cannot break through overhead resistance. Bulls may give up and step away.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  2:21:19 PM
MMM $133.01 +2.43 Traders following our watch list (suggested entry on pullback to $130) and yesterday's suggestion for playing a market bounce with MMM (as it hovered at $131), using a stop loss below $130 have so far been rewarded. I would still leave the stop just below $130, but traders looking to take a quick profit and avoid the war swings can take the money and run now.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/25/03,  2:12:39 PM
Mark, What is your opinion on qqq around 27? Significant resistance. I'm torn be/n long and short. There is likely to be some tech earnings shortalls in near future but war issues look to be pulling sentiment and market up.

I guess I look at it a bit differently, as the war bid that drove last week's ridiculous ramp job seems to have stalled out as it has become clear that the war won't be over as quickly as many investors had hoped. As I've noted in recent articles and commentary, I'm bullish the NASDAQ vs. the rest of the market, but not at current levels. We're getting close to some pretty solid resistance in the QQQ near $27, and a failed rally near that level might serve as a good SHORT TERM bearish entry point.

But with bullish percents turning up smartly in the past week, I expect the dips to be bought for the time being. I like new bullish entries on the QQQ on a dip and rebound in the $25.00-25.50 area, in line with my commentary in the weekend LEAPS column. Keep in mind that discussion is focused on catching a significant trend move. In my opinion, trying to catch the shorter-term moves is too fraught with peril due to the violent news-related swings.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  2:05:27 PM
The VIX flirts with levels below 33 this afternoon as the indices push against overhead resistance. With volume patterns as positive as they've been, it's somewhat surprising that indices have not yet been able to push above that resistance. On the OEX, the push up has moved the 5(3)3 stochastics all the way back to levels that indicate overbought conditions, but there has not yet been a bearish kiss or a rollover, although the fast lines have hinged on both the 5(3)3's and 21(3)3's. We all know how deceptive those stochastics can be in trading like this, however.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  2:04:55 PM
UNH $90.90 +1.60 OI bullish watch list candidate followed the script we set up over the weekend with a bounce off its 200-dma (87.69) for an entry point on Monday and has now taken out the $90 level that we suggested as an alternative entry. There is some resistance in the $94-$95 range.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  2:02:23 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  1:49:35 PM
Thanks, John.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  1:48:30 PM
A fade lower off the 1401 resistance line, COMPX languishing at 1395, between 1390 support and 1400 resistance. Theoretically, there should be no limit to the number of retracements we can apply to an ever-shrinking price range, which may be just what the market's thinking as the price stalls at its current levels. FVX is up 2.9 bps now, rising slightly and portending another run at the day highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  1:44:33 PM
So far, the OEX 446.25-446.50 level, up to 447.25, continues to be problematic. The OEX has not yet been able to sustain a move above that level.

 
 
  John Beyer   3/25/03,  1:42:39 PM
I'll say one thing and I don't care who knows it! Linda Piazza has once again hit the nail on the head. I'm a fundamentalist that uses technical analysis to try to time the market. Some argue that we are all technical traders or we're soon not traders at all. But what happens when the technicals scream one thing and the market does another. And what happens to someone like me, a fundamentalist, when the fundeamentals, ie., supply/demand, earnings, trade deficits, budget deficits, foreclosers, war worries, bankruptsies, etc., etc., are all screaming sell, sell, sell, and the market is soaring. What do you do, you do what Linda is doing, don't initiate any new entries until the uncertainty begins to clear up.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  1:36:29 PM
Current numbers for the DAX indicate that it is up 76.95 points.

 
 
  Kent Barton   3/25/03,  1:29:32 PM
SOX.X semiconductor index (324.27 +4.50): Currently underperforming the NASDAQ by about half a percentage point. The 15-minute chart shows that the index leveled out at short-term support in the 316-318 region. There's additional underlying support at the 200-dma near 313. Tech bulls can be pleased with the Composite's steady upward action over the past three hours, but the lack of full participation by the SOX makes the rally seem a bit suspect.

Meanwhile, the GSO.X software index (104.82 +2.73) has managed a respectable rebound near its 200-dma at 101.46, and is beginning to fill in the Monday morning gap.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  1:23:33 PM
Spot gold is down to 327.20, HUI -.11 to 115.09 and XAU +.31 to 63.24. Yields are now in the green, with FVX +2.2 bps as money exits bonds. The TRINQ remains buried at .24, TICK.NQ only moderately bullish at +162, QV -1.18 to 38.96. The COMPX has a high of 1400, just before fib resistance of 1401, but I see no sign of a failure here just below the highs. I'm listening to conflicting accounts of what is and isn't happening in Basra currently.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  1:22:09 PM
The OEX made the move over 447.25. Let's see if it can sustain the move. As I mentioned yesterday, I'm watching the markets for information only, not making entry and exit calls. Fortunately, Steve's here to do that or not do that, based on the market realities! On a personal note, I'm not making new entries today and won't, in the face of so many uncertainties and with the failure of technical analysis to accurately predict moves lately.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  1:18:30 PM
Sector Bell Curve from Dorsey/Wright's sector Bullish %. Link

Look for leadership groups that are "first" to reverse up from "oversold" levels below 30%, or those sectors turning "bull confirmed." Can see how sector bull curve begins to shift to right.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   3/25/03,  1:02:50 PM
I normally reserve my commentary here in the Monitor for specific issues related either to the OIN playlist or the LEAPS plays. Readers will note that I haven't had a lot to say so far this week and it is for a reason. Despite the technical merits of many of those specific plays, I have a hard time advocating action points in this crazy noise we've seen over the past few days. A perfect example is our OTEX Put play. We got a picture perfect breakdown yesterday, as the play was triggered with its drop under the $28 level. I liked the looks of the chart well enough to list it as the Play of the Day last night. Then look at what happened today...the stock moved up through that breakdown level and is looking pretty strong today with a nearly 3.5% advance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  12:57:09 PM
Positive volume patterns continue, with volume now picking up. Total volume is now 653 million shares traded on the NYSE and 742 million on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios are strongly positive 2.69 on NYSE-traded issues and 1.99 on Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is 6.7 times down volume on the NYSE and 8.3 times down volume on the Nasdaq. New highs outnumber new lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  12:44:33 PM
The OEX five-minute chart is beginning to take on the shape of a rounding saucer or rounding bowl--one type of potential bottom formation. (Not the bottom, just a short-term bottom.) With these types of formations, it's difficult to pinpoint the lip of the saucer or the bowl, but gap evidence, as well as the retracement levels and moving averages I've already mentioned pinpoint the 446.50-447.25 level as the lip of this potentially bullish formation. Using 447 as the lip level, a sustained move over those levels would target a move up to 455.32, just below Friday's high. (447-438.68=8.32. Add 8.32 to 447 lip=455.32.) A failure to sustain a move over the 446.50-447.25 level might be seen as a rejection of that bullish potential.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  12:36:33 PM
Machinery & Tools bullish % from Dorsey/Wright also reversing up into "bull confirmed" status at 41.23%. "Top of mind" stock here would be Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  12:30:26 PM
British SKY News is reporting a popular uprising of citizens in Basra against Hussein.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  12:27:25 PM
Drugs ... "good news" for Forest Labs (FRX) $54.15 +5.17% bulls as sector bullish % reversed back up into "bull alert" status. FRX looks to be "leading the charge" as we thought it might.Link

Might be making a little pre-earnings run. Unconfirmed date for quarterly earnings is April 17th before the market. Current consensus is for $0.48 per share.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  12:26:10 PM
Add one more level of importance to the 446.25-446.50 level for the OEX: The 60-minute 21-pma currently crosses at 446.19. A failure to sustain a move over 446.50 might be troubling for bulls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  12:20:50 PM
The Dow Jones Transportation Index today moves back to test the 2200-2220 level that's been support or resistance in the past. Currently, the index trades at 2203.75, with the simple 100-dma just overhead at 2233.91.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  12:20:10 PM
Doing a fib retracement on yesterday's opening gap, I see resistance at 1397, 1401, 1405, 1409, 1413 and 1421. Of those, the 1401 and 1409 levels look to be the most significant, and resistance should present itself at those levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  12:17:54 PM
The COMPX appears to be breaking through the lower gap resistance, currently printing highs at 1393. The TRINQ is buried at .28, QQV -.61, TICK.NQ +319. The FVX is now down 2.1 bps.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  12:16:05 PM
As I sent my last entry, the Dow took out 8300

Current levels: Dow 8305/OEX 445.67/SPX 876.46/COMP 1392

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  12:15:50 PM
Sector Bullish % reversals ... I'm updating my bullish % sector bell curve this morning. I'm noting "bull confirmed" status now in Dorsey's "Building" and "Chemical" sectors. I'm just starting, but both reversed up in the recent week.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  12:15:12 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I've been looking for stop loss alternatives for those traders who went long at OEX 440. There was an intraday pullback to 443.83 and traders looking to tighten could use 443. However, the support at 438 has been strong so far and I still favor using 436 (since 437 is also a significant number). However, if the Dow continues to fail at 8300, it could anchor the other indices. The SPX and OEX are both back above those PnF breakthrough levels of Thursday and Friday (445 & 875). The OEX breakthrough at that 445 level is based on the 2.5-point box.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  12:13:52 PM
The VIX currently moves to its low of the day, at 33.43.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  11:46:46 AM
The OEX move over 442.50 this morning confirmed a double-bottom formation on the five-minute charts, predicting a minimum target of 446.37 (442.50-438.63=3.87. Add 3.87 to 442.50=446.37 target.) Although five-minute formations sometimes don't fulfill their targets, it's interesting that, if achieved, this target would bring the OEX right up against those 446.25-446.50 levels that are so important. (See my 10:04 post for information on those levels.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  11:41:55 AM
The put to call ratio is down to .89 as the dust settles on the rally on the 5 minute COMPX chart. FVX is near its highs of the day at a 2.9 bp loss, TRINQ .32 reflecting extreme buying pressure, QQV -.73 at 39.41, TICK.NQ +24. HUI and XAU are still in positive territory. 1390 resistance has held so far, but the advance off the lows is still very recent.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  11:39:15 AM
Swing Trade Signals
5 and 10 year yields moved into this morning's gap on the rally and have flat-lined. If we do get another leg up, look for the top of those gaps to provide resistance. It is notable that the Dow ran out of steam at 8300, which has been pivotal in the past, although was not much of a factor in last week's market explosion and only temporary support yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  11:38:49 AM
30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 4.932% and turning green here. Seeing some selling in the longer-date viewed as near-term bullish. Some selling from morning highs in the shorter-dated 5-year has the look for some cash seeking out equities, perhaps getting some stock after yesterday's pullback.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  11:37:20 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  11:32:27 AM
The FTSE 100 and CAC 40 have closed, with the FTSE 100 up 32.40 points, and the CAC 40 up 69.90 points. The DAX remains open, and currently trades up 74.49 points. The FTSE and CAC saw a late-day surge. European commentators are attributing the rise to encouraging comments issuing from four press conferences held by various coalition spokespersons.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  11:31:52 AM
Another flagpole rally to resistance as hours of "organic" trading are mysteriously reversed in a matter of minutes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  11:25:45 AM
Volume patterns show improvement (if you're in bullish trades, that is). Adv/dec ratios now are 2.24 for the NYSE and 1.89 for the Nasdaq. Up volume is 3.05 times down volume on the NYSE and 3.8 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 370 million shares on the NYSE and 443 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  11:19:45 AM
The VIX tested 34 again. Last Friday, the VIX fell as low as 32.83, just below the 32.98 March 3 low. This is a dangerous time for bulls and bears. On March 3, the bounce from that low signaled the beginning of the decline toward the March 12 equity lows. Last Friday, a late-day move up in the VIX might have been signaling the reversal that came on Monday. However, a failure through VIX support levels without an attendant bounce could signal trouble for bears.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  11:18:43 AM
The put to call ratio jumped during the 10-10:30 AM EST timeframe to .91, latest reading at .97. The options markets were obviously spooked by the 10AM data releases. Resistance remains at 1390 but could be test shortly. FVX down a touch to -4.5 bps on the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  11:05:00 AM
The COMPX has broken through 1382, targeting 1390 resistance overhead. A successful retest of the 1378-80 s/r zone will be quite bullish from here. The FVX is up to a loss of 3.6 bps on the day, TRINQ .49, QQV -.34 to 39.8, TICK.NQ +268.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  11:02:12 AM
Here's a chart I posted last night. Today's updated version shows another 60-minute candle bouncing from that top blue line. Without a move through those retracement levels, the markets were likely to rise again. The question is, how high? If the OEX can push above congestion in the current area, next watch those levels in my 10:04 post. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  10:54:43 AM
Dow Indu (INDU) vs. 10-year ($UST) relative strength chart. Link

Yesterday's reversal in stocks to buying in Treasuries creates a reversal in the Dow vs. $UST chart and we now get a "RS buy signal" point at 8,050.

This isn't too far from the 8,000 level that I would have been looking for good pullback bullish entry point to round up to 3/4 bullish position in the Sept. $80 DIA calls. Here's a chart of the Dow Industrials (INDU) Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  10:49:00 AM
The COMPX has made it up to 1376, approaching its high of the day. The five year yield remains at the low end of its range, which favors a failure at 1378-80 resistance. The TRINQ is low in bullish territory at .62, TICK.NQ bullish at +420.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  10:46:28 AM
It certainly appears that we will be in a holding pattern until we see how the move into Baghdad goes. I think Jeff's assessment of a pullback to SPX 851 as a long entry point has merit, given the boost in bullish percents and he is keeping the big picture in mind. If we do get that move, then we will also see a loss of support at OEX 437 and those traders looking for a long entry may want to stay on the sidelines if we lose that support, until we test SPX 850.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  10:45:30 AM
I've been waiting for volume patterns to settle out after the release of the economic numbers. Volume appears light, with only 225 million shares traded on the NYSE and 295 million on the Nasdaq. Volume patterns are mildly positive, with adv/dec ratios at 1.23 for NYSE-traded issues and 1.18 for Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is ahead of down volume, but only by 12 million shares on the NYSE and 10 million on the Nasdaq. New highs equal new lows on the NYSE and there are five more new highs than new lows on the Nasdaq. There's not much guidance to be found here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  10:39:55 AM
On Friday, GE popped above its exponential 200-dma. Yesterday, it opened below that moving average, rose to test it again (unless there was a bad print on Q-charts), but then ended the day well below that moving average. Today, it falls back to test the simple 200-dma, and is currently under that moving average, too, with GE at 26.51 and the moving average at 26.58. This test might be critical for GE. If it continues to fall, where is next support? As with many other stocks and indices, the move up was so quick that it's difficult to say where next support might lie, but 25.22 seems one possible level. GE found support near that level at some periods during October and December, and it's been the level of gaps up and gaps down.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  10:30:53 AM
President Bush speaks now.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  10:27:16 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The bond market continues to see some buying and yields are setting a series of lower highs and lower lows. The Dow is off its low of the day, but if the yield channels stay in tact we could see a slow bleed lower throughout the day. Here is an intraday yield chart for the 5- and 10-year notes. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  10:23:04 AM
The OEX again approached yesterday's low of 438.63, but it keeps trying to bounce from this level. The five-minute charts perhaps show the beginnings of a bearish right triangle forming, but, if so, it's loosely formed and not predictive of final direction. Direction may be difficult to predict as markets balance reactions to bad economic data that was nevertheless within the expected range, and to war news.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  10:17:37 AM
Bullish % charts were relatively unchanged after yesterday's trade. Actually edged higher in the S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link with a net gain of 1 stock to a p/f buy signal. NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link also creeped up 0.08% to 40.52. Still "bull correction" status here, and needs a reading of 42% to reverse back up to "bull confirmed." Also creeping up was the NASDAQ-Comp Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) by 0.10% to 39.95% bullish Link .

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  10:17:13 AM
The Dow has traded in a 40-point range all morning. the only stock in the average with more than $1 in movement right now is American Express (AXP -$1.18)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  10:13:12 AM
The opening put to call ratio was .61, which should be bad news for bulls with excessive call volume in the first 30 minutes of trading. FVX is down 5.9 bps, near its session lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  10:12:06 AM
The fed has added 1.5B via overnight repo, which is a net addition with no expiries today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  10:06:23 AM
Existing home sales slipped 4.3% to 5.84 million annual rate. This was slightly better than consensus of 5.80 million.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  10:05:47 AM
Consumer confidence slipped to 62.5 in March from revised 64.8 in February, above expectations. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  10:04:53 AM
So far, the 438 level is providing support for the OEX. What about resistance? Yesterday's range for the OEX (according to Q-charts) was 438.83 to 453.66. A 50% retracement of yesterday's move would cross at 446.24, a number that's also close to the simple 100-dma at 446.53. The 446.50 level is one of historical support and resistance, too, so many types of resistance converge at that level. If the OEX is unable to sustain a move above that level, it would appear that more downside is possible. Before getting to that level, however, it would need to move through yesterday's congestion just overhead.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  10:04:27 AM
Consumer Confidence came in at 62.5 vs expected 62.0. Home sales 5.84 million vs. expected 5.85 million

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  9:56:53 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) here's a chart with both the MONTHLY and WEEKLY pivot analysis retracement overlaid. Link I like a pullback entry point for buying at 851.14, while overlap resitance at 873 may likely find some "war trade" type of selling at this point.

Note... today's DAILY S1 is at 852, which would be a third-level of overlap support, while today's Pivot of 874 also provides a third-level of resistance.

As such, rather tough to put a trade on here in what looks to be "between a range" other than a day trade type of trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  9:54:33 AM
The VIX falls back into the 34-35 range this morning as yields are in the red, dollar is down, gold is up, and markets only marginally in the green. Unusual behavior once gain.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  9:50:48 AM
It looks like the trading robots have taken the gloves off and are engaging in a full-on slugfest. COMPX 1378-82 remains the key level here.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  9:48:18 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We rolled over into the red in the Dow/OEX/SPX, and yields are testing morning lows, but so far holding.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  9:44:26 AM
The 50% retracement of the first five-minute OEX candle comes in at 440.45, a number that has been exceeded to the downside as I typed. However, that first five-minute candle was not particularly large in comparison to nearby five-minute candles, so I'm not sure how much significance we should give to that 440.45 level. As Steve and I have pointed out many times, 440 is significant in itself. In addition, 438.29 is the 50% retracement of last week's candle, and 437.87 is the 50% retracement of the October-to-December move and the 50% retracement of two other OEX intermediate moves is nearly the same level because of the propensity of the OEX to trade in a range since last July. One caution: be careful entering trades ahead of the economic numbers to be released at 10 ET, and be careful of whipsaws immediately after their release.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  9:41:37 AM
Pivot Matrix for today at this Link

I haven't had time yet to look for correlative levels in the DAILY portion at this point, but will look to "tie in" with Friday's comments.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  9:39:53 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Not much of an opening range to set my fitted 5 min retracements from. It appears we are in a holding pattern ahead of the confidence number and housing data at 10 a.m. OEX 437 is still in tact and we are slightly up across all indices. Yields have bounced slightly over the past 15 min.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  9:36:54 AM
The COMPX is printing new highs with great sound and fury, but the 1378 resistance level remains unchallenged so far. I am watching the 1378-82 level to gauge what kind of strength we can expect for the rest of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  9:30:51 AM
5 point gap up open to 1374 COMPX, TRINQ .51, TICK.NQ -331, QQV +.66 to 40.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/25/03,  9:27:28 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  9:22:55 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Futures may not be showing a lot of downside here, but yields are moving to their lows of the session now. Based on that indication, I'd expect more downside follow through than the futures are showing us.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/25/03,  9:18:18 AM
Swing Trade Signals
If yields are any indication, we could be testing the OEX 437 level early on. If that level fails to hold on this pullback, then aggressive traders may want to try a short play below 436. If it does hold, then we could see a bounce and longs who got in on yesterday's 440 support may be rewarded with a bounce. We are very extended and a pullback to relieve some of that pressure may be a bulls best friend, but it is difficult to tell just how reliable the technicals have been considering the war has been the main impetus for movement. I still think ANY entries in this market are subject to the success of the U.S. troops and planning for 2-3 days is difficult (think about all the bulls from Thursday and Friday who saw their gains evaporate quickly), so any trade entered should be done so knowing it is subject to a major outside market force.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  8:56:02 AM
As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 25.90 points, the CAC 40 was down 0.03 points, and the DAX was up 17.47 points. It would not be uncommon for European markets to begin treading water now ahead of the opening of U.S. markets and the release of the consumer confidence number at 10 ET.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  8:39:28 AM
Spot gold is up to 332.50/oz. Yields are down, FVX -4.4 bps, TNX -3.1 and TYX -1.6 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  8:32:24 AM
For those looking for an alternate source of news on the war, the link below is a to a weblog run by someone digesting a plethora of news sources. Apparently he's been regularly scooping the major news networks by hours. Just came across it, but it looks pretty good. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  8:20:31 AM
For a precis of recent appointments at the Bank of Japan and the new governor, Toshihiko Fukui, see this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   3/25/03,  8:17:53 AM
The US Dollar Index hit a low of 100.31 and is now trading just north of 100.60. Equity futures got rescued overnight from lows of 1045 and 856 for NDX and ES respectively, both now trading higher witn ND trading 1052 and ES 863.75. QQQ is 26.09, up 5 cents from its closing print.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  7:20:06 AM
When planning today's trades, remember that the consumer confidence number will be released at 10 ET. The previous number was 64, and the consensus for this one is 62.5. Existing home sales will also be released at 10 ET, with the previous number 6.09M and the consensus for this number at 5.79M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/25/03,  7:10:08 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei fell 196.31 points or 2.3%, to 8238.76. The Nikkei's volatility over the last week has been due to several factors. As have other global markets, the Nikkei has reacted with each development of the war with Iraq, declining on expectations that the war would negatively impact an already weak economy, rebounding when many wrongly assumed the war would be quickly resolved, and now declining again. In addition, the Nikkei has been impacted by end-of-year buying and selling, as today was the last day to book stock purchases before the fiscal year-end. A government order has required banks to sell shares of non-financial companies, leading to a dumping of some non-financial stocks that were largely held by banks. Today, the central bank of Japan met to consider measures to combat the effect of the Iraq war on the economy and to continue efforts to stabilize the financials, but market participants were disappointed with the outcome. As expected, the bank increased the amount of stock it could buy, but not by as large an amount as had been hoped. Newly instated Governor Toshihiko Fukui commented yesterday that the bank might extend its stock purchases to include riskier assets. Market participants had also hoped that the central bank would decide to buy foreign bonds or take other steps that might strengthen the dollar against the yen, helping Japanese exporters.

Rising crude oil prices and increasing evidence that the war with Iraq will be lengthy sent the European markets down in early trading today, too. The FTSE declined as low as 3660.40, the CAC fell to 2644.22, and the DAX fell below 2500 again, to 2481.74. However, all began a sharp recovery off their lows with the FTSE 100 currently trading at 3731.90, the CAC 40 now at 2726.13, and the DAX now at 2567.15. This puts the FTSE and the CAC flat on the day, while the DAX is in the green. Chemicals, retail, media, and telecoms are among the sectors still trading down in European trading.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   3/25/03,  5:09:42 AM
The Market Monitor Server will be rebooted in 2 minutes. You will need to reconnect your desktop program to continue to receive updates.

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  11:04:57 PM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   3/24/03,  11:04:25 PM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Vlada Raicevic   3/24/03,  11:04:17 PM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  11:04:11 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/24/03,  11:03:30 PM

Disclaimer: Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives