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  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  9:58:02 PM
Final Post .... S&P futures (sp03m) 860.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  7:30:07 PM
Central Command issues brief statement that U.S. forces rescued American POW.

S&P futures (sp03m) 859.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  7:21:35 PM
S&P futures (sp03m) 860.00 ... if traders are trading the futures at this time, take a retetracement from 855.10-866. Similar to today's comments regarding "session high-session low" on 10-year YIELD and Dow Industrials currently in play in futures. Pullback in futures from 866 came right down to 61.8% retracement of 859.26, or 858.90 on futures contract.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  7:16:18 PM
QQQ $25.50 ... after-hours high has been $25.59.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  7:14:38 PM
S&P futures (sp03m) 859.50 ... after trading high of 866.00, NBC news now reporting that U.S. forces rescue American POW in Iraq.

Futures pullback here from 866.00 may be due to trader's thinking this is Central Commond announcement.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/1/03,  7:14:03 PM
One more note regarding Jeff's comments on SLM: The federally-funded company announced plans on March 21st to split its stock on a 3:1 basis. The proposal to increase the number of outstanding shares will be presented for approval at Sallie Mae's annual meeting on May 15th. Anticipation of a split might help to give the stock a bullish bias in the coming weeks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  7:05:33 PM
S&P futures (sp03m) 864.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  7:01:08 PM
S&P futures (sp03m) settled at 856.70 and moving higher at 859.80 here. Major announcement coming from CENTCOM (Central Command).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  5:56:21 PM
Pivot Matrix Tomorrow should be interesting, and I think BULLS have a "target of opportunity" tomorrow. Excellent risk/reward trades present themselves in the matrix with clearly outlined levels of correlative support. Link

SARS now becomes more of a headline grabber, with war still at the forefront. The "line in the sand" looks to be the WEEKLY S1s for the Dow, SPX, OEX and BIX. NDX a bit of a laggared in the matrix, but a spark of bullishness above 1,025 could re-ignite to DAILY R1/WEEKLY S1 with bullishness building above those levels to WEEKLY Pivot of 1,055.50. If so, this has WEEKLY pivots of major indexes reachable tomorrow.

Watch morning action in 10-year YIELD. Saw buying in last part of its session on SARS worries and closed back below 3.83%, which is early level if broken higher to spark stocks tomorrow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  4:55:09 PM
SLM Corp. (SLM) $113.39 +2.2% ... 52-week high, 52-week high close, and all-time high close. Jeff: I'm looking to take puts on SLM, am I early here?

Yes, I think anytime a trader trades bearish in a stock that is trading an all-time high, he/she would be considered to be "early." Lot's of bears are early on this one, and only a few (above today's close of $113.39) is currently holding a profit.

The bullish vertical count for SLM is $116, and this vertical count has been in play since August when SLM traded a triple-top buy signal at $94 and broke above bearish resistance trend. Since then, the stock has not given a negating p/f sell signal. Link

Relative strength of SLM vs. the S&P 500 remains bullish and hints the stock is still in favor among market participants. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  3:58:09 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,070 +0.97% ... "sharp" rebound from the 8,025 level. I looked at this earlier and did this.

Take a retracement of today's 10-year YIELD range. 10-year YIELD closed at lower 61.8% retracement.

Then, take similar retracement on today's Dow Industrials range. What you see is a Dow decline from prior bond YIELD comment (look for weakness into close) when Dow fell quickly from 8,055 to.... 8,025, which was/is 61.8% of today's range.

Stocks rebounded in last 15-minutes after news reports hit that the American Airlines flight and passengers aboard were NOT quarantined.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  3:41:56 PM
COMPX 1340 was intraday support today on the opening dip and prelimary support before stronger support at 1335. While these lower levels feel good for those playing the short side, caution remains job one. I see 1340, 1335 and 1325 as hurdles below. The failure to break out to the upside is quite bearish, but we're still in a range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  3:27:00 PM
Frustration and hand wringing. I have been cured of my short term inclinations all afternoon, either bullish or bearish, because the chart looks flat, actually drifting upward. Little matter, because it's in a range. Breakouts, breakdowns, but no direction. Bonds actually closed in the green, while HUI and XAU are extending their losses. Longer term, I see little to be bullish about, but the market will clearly go where it wants. Stop losses are absolutely essential in the current environment. Protect your accounts first, and worry about profits second.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  3:26:33 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The PnF reversals were certainly a bullish sign, but the inability of the TNX to hold above 38.61 has me a little less confident about the long entry, as does the fade we are seeing now. Alternative stop for more conservative traders can be set just below the monthly pivot of 7977, where we found support today. I'd give it 10 points to 7967 for that alternate stop.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/1/03,  3:24:59 PM
ICN Pharmaceuticals (ICN) $10.25 +1.34 Trading near the highs of the day, up 15% on very strong volume. ICN makes Ribavirin, an anti-viral drug that's shown some progress in fighting the spread of SARS.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  3:10:50 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) quickly punched in today's trading range. Tomorrow's DAILY pivot is 38.30, which now matches exactly with the MONTHLY pivot of 38.30.

A short-term equity index trader most likely a bit cautious into today's 04:00 PM EST close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  3:03:15 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.827% ... sharp drop in YIELD into its close from 3.88% in just the last 30-minutes. Really picked up "steam" in last 5-minutes. I think this action is due to "SARS news" that is getting air time regarding American Airlines flight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  3:01:03 PM
Cerner (CERN) $30.01 -7% ... WR Hambrecht making some comments here that stock's price weakness today due to another firms published comments. The note cited several issues that Hambrecht says have already been discussed by company and analysts. Primary issue that is being raised is ... was the impact of capitalization for research and development having negative impact on "quality of earnings." CERN capitalizes 33% of R&D expenditures, which is aggressive, but consistent with historical practices. Hambrecht believes that CERN uses this method because they spend approx. double the amount competititors spend on R&D (as a % of revenues), which drives revenue and earnings growth. Hambrecht believes that since there was no "new news" presented by CERN, that today's sell-off is unwarranted and is encouraging investors to take advantage of weakness. Link

Hmmm... not a bad risk/reward trade here. Stop $27.70 and target longer-term bullish vertical count of $60.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  2:59:18 PM
The trendline is now failing, but again, with no velocity. A very choppy market today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  2:55:29 PM
That last low just bounced off rising trendline support to 25.51 QQQ on the 3 minute candles.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  2:38:59 PM
I've been staring at QQQ so hard that I lost track of the COMPX, which is sitting at 1354. One would think that a breakout would propel price higher, but such is not the case, with QQQ and COMPX just drifting to and fro, first below now above a key s/r zone. The TRINQ is low and FVX is high, though well off its highs at +2.4 bps. It seems to be taking some heavy lifting to keep the COMPX elevated.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  2:30:39 PM
Barr Labs (BRL) $58.71 (+1.71) OI call play BRL, entered at $53.81, is approaching my target in the $59-$60 range. Traders who would like to take some chips off the table can take advantage of today's rally to do so.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  2:18:01 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,100 ... 3-box reversal back into X. Look for bulls to pick up action here as better risk/reward assessment can now be made. Stops under 7,900 with targets of 8,500. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  2:10:17 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $55.30 +2.46% ... working its way to a 52-week high, which would be $56.36. A close above $55.50 would be an all-time closing high.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  2:03:52 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The SPX managed a PnF reversal back up at 860, while the May Crude Oil (CL03K) contract fell below $30 per barrel. Both are bullish signs for equities here, but I'd really like to see the Dow reverse at 8100 for confirmation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  1:59:46 PM
Head and shoulders aside, the longer formation printed today looks like a neutral triangle or pennant, and the price is coiling for a break. Upside or downside is up for grabs. FVX is back near its high of the day, and we're very close to an upside breakout here. This is what stops are for if you're in bearish positions.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  1:47:25 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  1:44:52 PM
This latest spurt, if it fails, should complete the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern on the Qubes that began printing at noon sharp today. The 1 minute chart is awfully twitchy, but I see a neckline at 25.47.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  1:28:59 PM
Here's that trendline support I was looking at. If there's going to be a bounce, it will be in this vicinity. But, the FVX is now up only 1.5 bps, off its highs, and the TICK.NQ has gone negative by a bit, -26. Still choppy here, but like Steve, the failure to rally strongly earlier looks less than bullish to me.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  1:22:36 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The Dow came within 5 points of that pnF reversal back into a column of "X" at 8100 and the SPX came within 0.21 of its own reversal at 860, before failing. Looks like we have our new line in the sand.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  1:06:59 PM
The FVX is near its high of the day at +2.7 bps, and the QQV is near its low, down 1.2 to 37.16. Nothing bearish here, and we should be at or near stops for recently added bearish positions. HUI and XAU are both down, -2.14 and -1.21 respectively, also red for the commodities index (CRB).

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  12:56:46 PM
8075 was a key level in the mid-Feb rebound attempt, which topped out at 8075.95 on 2/18. We have now moved above that level. The corresponding highs on that day were SPX 852.87 and OEX 432.71

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:56:10 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,082 +1.1% ... 5-minute close above 8,073. Bullish!

10-year YIELD 3.871% ... Bullish!

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  12:53:22 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I would have liked to see a stronger rally when Saddam didn't show up for his news conference, but traders will note that a trade of Dow 8100 will create a three-box reversal in the Dow back into a column of "X" - if we get that reversal, I may add another 1/4 to the position, depending on what I see in the TNX. The TNX just broke above the 61.8% retracement of the Oct-Dec lo-hi range at 38.61 and now trades 38.71.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/1/03,  12:45:44 PM
"Let's go and do Jihad" - Not the title of Osama Bin Laden's latest children's book, but one of the main points of Saddam Hussein's latest "statement." As Mark pointed out, we're getting some buying on speculation that the Iraqi dictator was either severely maimed or killed by the initial bunker strikes. Just imagine what would happen to the markets if there was actually undisputable evidence that he had bitten the dust!

The Pentagon says it's nearly positive that Saddam was at the location that was bombed. Throw in the fact that he hasn't been seen on live TV since those attacks, and it's pretty easy to conjecture that the Iraqi leadership may have been taken out. As traders, we need to stay on our toes and remember that any sudden, conclusive proof of Saddam's demise would send the major indexes explosively higher. Will that actually happen anytime soon? Probably not...But it's something to keep in mind - especially if you're short.

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that the top military leadership was indeed "decapitated" on April 19th. If that's the case, you might expect the command and control structure to be running around like a chicken with its head cut off. But so far there definitely seems to be a coordinated defense effort in Baghdad, with no (visible) indications of mutiny in the Iraqi military. Thus, it's probably safe to assume that if Hussein was indeed taken out, someone has moved in to fill his place.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  12:42:13 PM
The put to call ratio has fallen from an intraday high of 1.03 to the latest reading at .79. FVX is +1.5 bps, confirming the push higher, but so far no breakout and I'm feeling increasingly bearish near the intraday top, although that trendline just below us is troubling.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:35:24 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,049 +0.72% ... session high has matched yesterday's high of 8,072. I see resistance at the 8,072 level, only from the DAILY pivot analysis retracement. Take base retracement at 7,807, and top at 8,235. 38.2% is 7,971 (dow never close below this level on 5-minute chart), 50% at 8,021 (pivot) and 61.8% at 8,072. 5-minute close above 8,072 should see rally to 8,153 and 8,235 potential.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.839% is the "fuel" needed for the engine.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  12:23:48 PM
I really want to short this bounce, but with the trendline violated above 1346, a short here will be subject to a bounce/retest of that trendline from above.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:23:45 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) further selling and near best YIELD levels of the session at 3.842% (see 11:00 Update) here.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/1/03,  12:21:54 PM
ROOM $55.90 (-1.78) While the broad market has continued to vacillate between near resistance and near support, we're really seeing a continued deterioration in ROOM. With international tensions still high in the wartime environment, the expanding SARS outbreak is just dealing one more body blow to the travel-related stocks. After cracking below the 10-dma ($58.24) at the close yesterday, ROOM has been under pressure since the close, falling to test the lows of last week. The current market surge on renewed speculation that Saddam is dead is producing a bounce from that support near $55.40, confirming the significance of that level. A failure of the current rebound below $58 can be used for new entries, while momentum traders will need to wait for a decisive break below $55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:17:54 PM
Breakaway, running, then exhaustion gaps We've discussed this "3-stage" type of trade in the past. See a bit of it presenting itself in GERN, with today's gap higher being a "running gap." Link

Often times, a trader can really tie in the p/f charts with things from the bar charts to come up with some pretty good trades.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  12:15:32 PM
The trendline is violated but 1351 COMPX resistance is not so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:13:17 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.829% here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:12:39 PM
Buy Program Premium Alert Dow 8,045, SPX 855, OEX 433, NDX 1,025

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:09:01 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 267.08 +1.15% ... edging above CONVENTIONAL 50% retracement here. Yesterday's afternoon session high was 267.05, and INDEX bulls would like to see a move above that on near-term basis for sign of strength not only in BIX.X, but SPX/OEX. Yesterday, BIX.X "held tough" in its pivot analysis matrix and didn't trade WEEKLY S1 until the very end of the session.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  12:03:19 PM
The COMPX is refusing to budge, in a very tight range, while the futures remain at their opening levels. TRINQ .98, TICK.NQ +146, QQV -.75 to 37.61. The five year yield is down 2.3 basis points, and the descending trendline on the COMPX is now down to 1347. I would be keeping stops snug in that area. Saddam speaking could be good for some volatility, but with the action we saw on this morning's ISM data, this market is very short on predictability.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  12:00:37 PM
Geron Corporation (GERN) $6.82 +29% ... keep this type of supply/demand chart in mind right now. Remember our previous discussion regarding the "slingshot" type of move higher from $4.00 after a BIG column of X (big volume in the bar charts too) retracement of that column of X (O's from $4.75-$3.25) then the 3-box reversal into X that began finding demand building? Link

I think Dow Industrials (INDU) bulls are looking for the same type of supply/demand trade. Yes, it is "easier" to get one stock moving, but similar type of supply/demand trade. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  11:53:13 AM
Light, Sweet Crude Oil (May CL03K) $30.30 (-0.74) Low this morning of $30.05 was very close to yesterday's low of $30.07. I'd like to see a drop back below $30 if we are going to get equities heading higher. This indicator has been as good as any during recent months and traders can watch prices here for clues as to where stocks are headed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  11:47:58 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  11:29:47 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Just sort of drifting here and since we gave up the post-ISM rally we have been rangebound within the opening 5 min range. That had a bottom at 7992 and top at 8026. We are back below the daily pivots and yields are moving sideways. VIX is down fractionally. The earlier bullishness I was trying to jump on has dissipated, but the bottom of that opening range also coincides with weekly S1 at Dow 7994.9. While we are seeing some higher lows, the SPX has failed to hold onto 850, so we may get that test of Dow 7900 I talked about this morning.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:55:37 AM
Following that trendline I identified earlier on the COMPX, it actually goes farther back to Friday's highs as well. It is now just below 1350. I would there consider moving stops on bearish positions from yesterday down to your entry point or just above, in the COMPX 1351-2 area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  10:52:20 AM
Point/figure breadth ... each morning when I log onto my Dorsey/Wright.com p/f chart, I get a nice little breadth read of yesterday's action.

NYSE saw 61 stocks rise on their p/f chart (a continuation X/demand was charted), while 181 stocks fell (a continuation O/supply was charted). Off all the stocks charted, 9 stocks gave new buy signals, while 4 new sell signals were generated, for a net gain of 4. There were 17 upward reversals (3-box reversals back into X) and 89 downward reversals (3-box reversals back into O).

NASDAQ saw 91 stocks rising on their charts, versus 205 falling. 10 new buy signals were generated versus 6 new sell signals, for net gain of 4. 25 stocks saw 3-box reversals up, while 110 saw 3-box reversals down.

Conclusion: There are still a few stocks that are still in favor or gaining favor in the market (generating buy signals), but more and more stocks are beginning to find distribution/selling (reversals back into O, that could eventually become sell signals and deteriorate the bullish %). This has me thinking that we are at or nearing some pretty meaningful levels of support in the major indexes, that need to hold.

For me, the "key" near-term is that equity bulls need to see some type of selling come back into Treasuries to generate cash. Treasuries have seen some buying in the past 6 sessions, and it is starting to weigh on equities.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  10:48:21 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The fade is continuing, with the major indices now testing support at Dow 8000/SPX 850/OEX 430.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  10:37:05 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Dow made it over 8050, with the COMP over 1350 and the SPX over 855. However, we are seeing a fade here back below those levels. If we do drop back to 7900 again, I mad add another 1/4 to the long entry, but only if yields hold support.

Current levels: Dow 8034/SPX 853.20/ OEX 432.41/COMP 1347

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:30:20 AM
So far, that last push made a lower high on a 2 day / 2 minute COMPX chart. There's a descending trendline that's been capping the highs since yesterday's high of the day at 2:45ish EST.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  10:27:43 AM
Buy/sell programs three programs so far this morning. One right at the open as the cash markets adjusted to futures (buy program), then an offsetting sell and then buy program right after the ISM Data.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  10:25:58 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.823% here after just matching session high YIELD of 3.831%. Needs some selling to get this equity rally further legs.

Dow +60, SPX +6, OEX +4, NDX +9.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:22:35 AM
1351 resistance continues to hold on the COMPX. Yields are flickering between green and red, but no sign of weakness in the Nasdaq futures so far.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  10:15:03 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I made a mistake when typing my stop point. It should have been 7774. Conservative traders can still use a break below 7900 to close out, but I am going to give the small position a little more room. Set stops at 7774 for this entry.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:14:54 AM
This is too strange to believe. What would have happened if the ISM number had been good????

The market would have been permitted to trade without assistance, I presume. But it doesn't matter. Watch your stops, look for either a breakout or a failure at resistance. We have to trade what we see, regardless of what Al Green and To Fukui want to do to the tape.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  10:12:16 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were triggered on the 1/4 long position when the Dow traded 8036 at 10:10:34. We are now above the daily pivot on a 5 min closing basis and still above the Weekly S1 and Monthly pivot.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:11:37 AM
Net addition of 2B with an overnight repo of 5B, refunding yesterday's expiring 3B.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  10:11:10 AM
Do they like it? 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.819% ... starting to see some selling come in on the 10-year and nearing session best YIELD of 3.831%. Still have "upside" alert set at 3.830%, which would be first thing for me to see to begin thinking good pullback entry for bulls yesterday near current index levels.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  10:09:29 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Impressive recovery from the ISM data. I am going to nibble long here with a 1/4 position. GO long a 1/4 position at Dow 8036. Set stops at 7874.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  10:07:41 AM
Post ISM data has Dow +24 at 8,017, SPX +3.6 at 851.8, OEX +2.5 at 431, NDX +6 at 1,024.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:06:05 AM
Equity futures love the number, printing highs of the day on the indices.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  10:05:23 AM
ISM Index for March 46.2, which was below consensus of 49.0.

bond market doesn't seem to mind the number all that much, with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) holding steady at 3.806% here. Stock traders may not have like the number near-term, but bonds not seeing all that much action at this point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:04:06 AM
I smell the Plunge Protection Team. Watch your stops on bearish positions.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  10:01:24 AM
ISM 46.2. Futures have gone negative.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  10:01:16 AM
ISM 46.2 - Ouch!

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  9:59:23 AM
Note on my last entry: While Jim and Vlada may be playing short, our time frames are different and I am looking more to enter at support for a multi day rally. This may involve averaging down in some cases and traders short on the futures side can still benefit as I am working into an entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  9:59:02 AM
US Dollar Index (dx00y) 99.27 +0.2% ... helping offset some of the strength in bonds this morning for equity traders is slight bid back in the dollar. For an extended move higher here, most likely need a move back above 100.00, which has the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA has technical resistance. Dollar action can spark equity price movement as well as Treasury price action. Dollar action has been very similar of late to YIELD and equity prices.

In brief... this morning's DIVERGENCE between dollar and Treasury YIELD is "mixed." And that's what the major indexes represent. Will monitor for YIELD and dollar to get in unison, and look for equities to follow that trade.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  9:57:44 AM
Swing Trade Signals
A review of bullish percents shows that we have held our recent gains and are actually on the upside of the current readings. Looking at the past two rebounds, there was plenty of upside from current levels. The market has certainly felt bearish the past few days, but traders wondering why I am still looking at the long side can look at those percents.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  9:53:49 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.806% ... equity bulls aren't getting any "help" this morning from Treasuries. Per last night's Index Trader Wrap, I wanted to at least see a 10-year YIELD above the 3.83% level, which is the MONTHLY pivot for April. I now have alert set at session low YIELD of 3.792%, and if that's take out, will look for equity weakness to build near-term.

Still in play in my opinion is 10-year YIELD of 3.7%, which comes from the 60-minute chart and head/shoulder top we noticed last week. My thinking here is if 10-year YIELD is headed to 3.7%, then indexes become vulnerable to lower target zones mentioned in last night's Index Wrap.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  9:51:44 AM
It's just chop so far, with yields now approaching their opening lows, and the QQQ near its lows of the day. Futures are off their highs, but we're measuring very small moves- no direction yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  9:46:09 AM
Geron (GERN) $6.98 +30% ... profiled as bullish here in market monitor on Friday near $4.10. Stock on the move again today after the company announced the publication of research results that describe the production of hepatocytes, the basic functional sells of the liver, from human enbryonic stem cells. The company said the study demonstrates that cells with multiple characteristics of hepatocytes, including drug-metabolizing enzyme activity, can be reporducibly differentiated from hESCs. These cells have potential for widespread us in drug discovery research as well as for transplantation therapy for patients with liver failure.

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in GERN Sept. $5 calls

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  9:44:23 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX) 299.04 +2.77 The SOX gave up the 300 level on a closing basis yesterday and is finding some resistance there this morning. The high is 299.18. With the simple 200dma sitting at 309, a move over 300 will still have some resistance to deal with. That average provided some temporary support on the way down.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  9:41:59 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Holding early gains and back over Dow 8000, SPX 850, OEX 430. COMP still below 1350. I'd expect some movement after the ISM data. Expectations are for a reading of 49.0 that indicates contraction in the sector.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  9:37:21 AM
Same old same old... with the COMPX trading 1344. 1351 remains key resistance, below which I see downside to 1335 and then 1325 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  9:31:04 AM
6 point COMPX gap up open to 1347, TRINQ .67, TICK.NQ +63, QQV +.76 to 38.34.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  9:30:08 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) Fractional buying in Treasuries this morning, and this will lend to a flat open for equities. 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) fractionally lower here at 3.817%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/1/03,  9:20:44 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  9:05:06 AM
Bonds have given back almost all their opening gains, with FVX now -.7 bps, TNX -.6 and TYX -1 basis point. ES and NQ futures are up 3.50 each, QQQ +.17 to 25.42.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/1/03,  8:53:38 AM
Last week, when I was substituting for Jeff, I had noted that the OEX had reversed on the traditional P&F chart into a column of “O’s” after giving the most recent buy signal. I’d mentioned the possibility that it could be setting up for a high pole warning. I note this morning that yesterday’s trading did create that high pole warning. This happens when a column of “X’s” rises more than three boxes above the previous column, but then reverses and retraces at least 50% of that column of “X’s.” This signals a potential for lower prices ahead.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/1/03,  8:50:36 AM
Swing Trade Signals
With yields on the downside, we may get that test of 7900 yet. I'm not planning on entering ahead of the ISM data, but if we hold at 7900 afterward, I may start with a 1/4 long position there, depending on how yields hold up at the support levels I highlighted in last night's wrap. If they fail, I may be looking short.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  8:29:09 AM
Bonds have just opened, and I'm surprised by the strong buying I'm seeing, with the five year yield down 2.4 bps, TNX down 2.3 and TYX -2.3 bps. Futures are pulling back, with NQ3M +.50 now at 1021.50, ES3M +1.50 at 848.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  8:06:28 AM
Economic data due: 10:00 am EST: ISM Index for March, prior 50.5, consensus 49.0

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/1/03,  7:38:21 AM
Good morning. Today began the new fiscal year in Japan. The release of the March Tankan survey of corporate sentiment soured that new beginning, as sentiment among large manufacturers fell from –9 to –10. Expectations had been that the survey would show a rise to –8, so this number was worse than expected. Also troubling Japanese markets, at least temporarily, was the North Korean launch of a land-to-ship missile into the Yellow Sea. Although trading was volatile, pension-fund buying helped the Nikkei to manage a positive close, up 14 points, or 0.2 percent, to 7,986.72. Also of note in Asia is the quarantining of a Hong Kong housing block due to SARS. Despite the potential damage to the region’s important tourist industry, some regional airlines gained in overnight trading.

In Europe, a Reuter’s Group survey of Eurozone purchasing managers showed a drop in March from 50.1 to 48.4, showing a contraction. While many feel that this pressures the ECB to lower rates, others feel that the ECB has been signaling a need for more time to assess the effects of the Iraq situation before lowering rates. The ECB meets on Thursday. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 55.80, while the CAC 40 and DAX are flat, up a minimal 6.53 and 4.70 points, respectively.

I will be traveling much of today and am not sure if I will be able to post again today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/1/03,  7:29:14 AM
The 3AM ramp job saved the US Dollar Index from the 98.80 level, bringing it up to just above 99.20 in a bear flag formation before it pulled back to its current 99.10 level. Equity futures are off their lows, slightly green with ES3M trading 850.25, ND3M 1024. QQQ is trading 25.42, up 17 cents from its close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   3/31/03,  10:29:42 PM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Vlada Raicevic   3/31/03,  10:29:31 PM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/31/03,  10:29:17 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   3/31/03,  10:28:22 PM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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