Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  10:12:37 PM
Sector Bell Curve for recently completed week. Link with comparison bell curve of prior week. Link

This weeks action had Telecom (BPTELE) reversing up "bull confirmed", Aerospace/airline (BPAERO) reversing up to "bull alert", Electronic (BPELEC) reversing up into "bull confirmed," Software (BPSOFT) reversing up into "bull confirmed," Finance (BPFINA) reversing up into "bull confirmed," Forest/Paper which has been "bull confirmed" adding more p/f buy signal and moving right, Insurance whas has been "bull alert" adding more p/f buy signals and moving right, Real Estate which has been "bear correction" adding new p/f buy signals and moving right.

This sector action had the S&P 500 ($BPSPX) reversing up to "bull confirmed" status, NASDAQ Composite ($BPCOMPQ) reversing up to "bull confirmed" status and the NASDAQ-100 ($BPCOMPQ) which has been "bull alert" adding more p/f buy signals and moving right.

Shoot! Telecom reversing up into "bull confirmed" status? In today's market monitor, I made bearish comments regarding Telephone Data Systems (NYSE:TDS) $42.35 -0.58% at (10:37:21 and 13:27:27) and purchased a August $45 put (TDSTI) for $5.00. With sector reversing back into "bull confirmed" status, we had better be careful if other telecom-related stocks are finding demand beginning to outstrip supply. If I can see TDS fall 3-boxes to $41 I may then close the position near-term. Why? Look at the p/f chart of TDS Link and see how a 3-box reversal lower, would then set up a double-top buy signal at $45? Now... this is "positive thinking" on a bears part, and I must now imediately assess upside risk to $48 at this point as this is a bearish trader's risk to a buy signal.

At this point, I'm not "freaking out" as I "know" that while I'm bearish a stock in a now more bullish sector, the relative strength of TDS vs. the SPX Link has been longer-term weak, but showing a bit of recent strength (this is why I was looking to short the rebound from $36. The relative strength of TDS versus the N. American Telecom Index (XTC.X) shows TDS is an underperformer Link and current RS is 10.13, but getting close to a 3-box reversal up at 10.50. Do you sense that I/we should have a tight stop on this one?

Is this stock on a bullish trader's list? I certainly hope not. "Smart bulls" look for strong stocks in the sector/market they trade. This thinking can often times give a "silly bear" like myself a second chance to correct a potential mistake as the sector internals begin to improve.

For the growing number of "sector bell curve addicts"... that are slowly becoming "inchworm addicts, doesn't it look like an "inchworm" that is starting to creep higher in the week-to-week comparisons?

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  8:24:52 PM
DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot analysis matrix Link "early support" for next week looks to be the WEEKLY pivots and DAILY S2 (Dow Indu, SPX, SPY, OEX).

NASDAQ-100 looks "impossible" to figure out, and perhaps this is a "sign" to let it digest PSFT and AFFX news for a while? Still, might be able to figure something out by using our technique of retracement.

Early support for YIELD looks to be 39.03-39.09 and considering PSFT, AFFX along with toxins in the Euphrates, today's (Friday) low YIELD wouldn't have tested these two levels. You'll see "two" correlative levels of resistance marked for YIELD. 1) is near-term if the 39.64 or 3.964% YIELD level is cleared to the upside (see 19:08:49) as that would have DAILY R2 and WEEKLY R1 in play. 2) Do you see that MONTHLY R1 of 41.10 or 4.1%? That's the WEEKLY R2 that tied in with the March 21 YIELD high, when Dow traded 8,500.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  7:08:49 PM
Last 2-weeks and next week's WEEKLY martrix Link

The major indexes managed to post a gain this week (except for QQQ and bonds as YIELD moved higher).

Today (Friday) the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) traded a high of 39.84 or 3.984%, and that was right at this WEEK's R1. For stocks to move higher next week, it becomes somewhat apparant that this bond's YIELD needs to break above that level to provide the gas needed to further this weeks equity index gains.

Here is 10-year YIELD chart ($TNX.X) with some annotations Link . I've placed WEEKLY (blue), MONTHLY (red) and CONVENTIONAL (pink) retracements on chart. Takes some squinting, but key points right now are the three levels of "resistance" trend from 39.64-39.51. If YIELD gets above and can hold a close, stocks should move higher.

I've place Dow Industrials "benchmarks" at the recent YIELD highs and lows. Kind of interesting how this WEEK's R2 marks the March 21 high isn't it?

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  4:33:51 PM
Alcoa (AA) $20.04 +0.65% ... stock jumps to $20.90 (+4.2% from close) after reporting earnings.

Dow Industrials bulls (like myself) might like this action as the "tail of the inchworm" (see 13:10:29 post) gets a lift and may have a chance at holding a low.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  3:49:28 PM
MMM 133.75 ... did you just see them take that 10,000 shares at the $133.75 offer like you and I take 1 contract offers? That's a little trade at 10,000 shares.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  3:43:48 PM
MMM 133.57 -0.2% ... don't know if "we" can get it to $134 by the close, but previos trader thinking of closing out his calls ahead of weekend.... place your option order now, but do it juuuuust inside the offer. Might get a "jittery bear" to take it from you to hedge a short that he has?

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  3:41:03 PM
For those not viewing the Futures Monitor, click over and read Jim's 13:56 post from a reader. Too funny! That's exactly the way I feel, except I'd say It's breaking out to the upside of the bull-flag formation . . .wait, it's going down . . . hold on, it's breaking through again, or is it? You get the idea. Whether we're talking about empirical prices going up or down, as the reader mentioned, or whether we're talking about breakdowns or breakouts of chart formations, or any other measure of strength or weakness seen on the bar charts, it's all the same. The inability to use standard TA tools is funny in retrospect if your money isn't invested, but not funny at all if there's real money at stake.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  3:26:32 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.944% ... I updated the pivot matrix for both the DAILY and WEEKLY.

Correlations found at WEEKLY pivot of 39.03 and Monday's DAILY S1 of 39.09. These would both correlate pretty close with today's low YIELD of 39.12, so I would begin thinking about weekend risk assessment to today's stock index lows.

Correlative resistance found at WEEKLY R1 of 40.25 and DAILY R2 of 40.19. This type of YIELD if traded would be above this recently completed week's bond YIELD trade. With the various stock bullish % still building bullishness, I'm going to stay more bullish and think we might look for some bond selling on Monday to 10-year YIELD of 40.22?

I say/observe it now... and test on Monday.

This may help some traders when contemplating risk/reward in a stock or call option position they hold ahead of the weekend. (see 14:50:43) type of question.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  3:24:31 PM
I have been overcome by second thoughts, and will be taking home a 1/4 May QQQ OTM put position with risk capital. Though the indicators do not justify the position, something "felt" wrong about being entirely flat. I do not recommend the trade because I can't justify it beyond a "gut" feeling, but in the interest of disclosure, that's what I've done. I'm risking very little on this trade, and will not grieve if it doesn't work out.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  3:15:45 PM
OEX 444.09 is the 50% retracement of the December 2 high to March 12 low. So far, the OEX has been finding support at its simple 100-dma at 444.99, but should it drop below that level, we might next watch that 444 level.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  3:07:17 PM
Bond Market Closed with 10-year YIELD finishing out at 3.944%, so marginal sell in this bond today.

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) close of 2.833% is kind of interesting, and has been in a three day range. If a trader takes an upward trend from the October low, attaches it to the 12/31/02 low, then extension of this trend is where YIELD has been hovering last three sessions. In essence, YIELD is trying to get "back on trend" but just can't at this point. Today's PSFT and AFFX along with news of Iraq placing toxins in Euphrates River probably didn't push the buttons of a lot of trader to sell bonds today. I'm a bit surprised they saw the selling they did.

Here's a pretty good article I found on today's "toxin" news. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  2:59:25 PM
FVX is moving higher now, +1.3 bps. TRINQ down to 1.8, QQV +1.93 to 36.98, TICK.NQ +36. As yields march higher, so should support underneath QQQ strengthen.

  Kent Barton   4/4/03,  2:52:22 PM
This is one of those days where stock scans aren't turning up a whole lot of possible plays. The lack of market movement over the past two sessions isn't very conducive to the breakouts and breakdowns that tend to provide good action points. That said, here are some stocks that might be worth watching:


  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  2:50:43 PM
MMM 133.07 -0.6% ... Jeff: How would you feel about booking some gains on the MMM play ahead of the weekend? Up 25% on play currently?

That's a risk assessment on the trader's part and I'm not sure what expiration you're holding. If holding current month expiration, the current market conditions (war in Iraq) would have me more "eager" to protect gain if it were on my mind. Here's something I'm looking at. 30-minute chart has 50-pd moving higher at 132.87, session low has been 132.58. I think there's a chance you could see recovery in MMM back near $134 by close. How about giving it room to today's low, and sell the option (raise cash if you want ahead of weeked).

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  2:49:20 PM
I agree about the oscillators, Jonathan. (See Jonathan's 14:34 post.) All day people have been asking me to look at charts, and I've been noting inconclusive signals from the oscillators. As I study the OEX daily chart, I see that the RSI (9) is flattening at the 58.40 level, along a former ascending trendline that has been since violated both to the downside and the upside. I see the MACD flattening, too, also along a former ascending trendline that has since been broken both to the downside and the upside. I see 21(3)3 stochastics having curled up again a few days ago, but perhaps now curling back down from the 81.55 level, below its previous peak.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  2:48:33 PM
Note that with the large repo drain of better than 8B today, significant selling needs to take place. Is the money coming out of bonds? Or equities? Or foreign currencies? The US Dollar Index (dx00y) is holding up, but not rallying. Then again, 8B dollars or so is chicken feed for the forex markets, so we can't really know. With respect to bonds, yields are flat. Now, given the selloff in equities, I would have expected more buying in bonds, and it's likely that the flat yields are the net result of repo selling in bonds and flight-to-quality buying today. Perhaps Al Green's primary dealers were long equities and unloaded some. It certainly looks that way, given the divergence between the ES futures and NQ futures, +2.75 and -16 respectively.

Where does that leave us? Not much further ahead, but with a better understanding of some of today's market anomalies. We'll continue to watch support and resistance lines. I'll be going home flat this weekend except for my long term precious metals and commodity positions.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  2:40:47 PM
Here are updates of a couple of charts I've put up yesterday and today. The first is a chart of the Russell 2000, depicting its upside break out of the wedge on its daily chart. This chart shows that the Russell's action over the last couple of days questions the strength of that break out of the wedge. This bears watching. Link

The second chart is an update of this morning's 60-minute OEX chart, depicting the OEX's movements today inside the megaphone formation. So far today, the OEX has drifted inside the formation, not breaking down but also not yet managing a test of the upper boundary. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  2:34:19 PM
Because so little is happening and I'm not materially wrong with my last call, I'll permit myself a brief interlude of reflection on the recent market action. Increasingly, the market has been acting so as to confound technicians. I'm seeing this increasingly with many accomplished traders with whom I correspond. It's almost as if the indicators we watch have become too common to provide an edge, and, combined with record volumes of program robots firing off trades, we have a recipe for a confusing, difficult-to-trade market. At various points, the price action has reminded me of the principle behind jazz, where the tune you "expect" is the only part that doesn't get played. The safest guideposts continue to be s/r zones delineated by high volume and/or time. These ranges create clear markers of price action, and so far, these have provided solid guidance. I'm coming to trust these levels, and the fib retracements within them, more than oscillators, breadth measures and other indicia.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  2:32:26 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 39.36 or 3.936% ... look here.... first little move back above the WEEKLY pivot of 3.929% since falling below at 12:00 PM.

Might get a bid coming into stocks from their lows.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  1:59:42 PM
The COMPX/ QQQ are fading into their s/r confluence zones, but the FVX is actually rising from its lows here, not confirming an equity breakdown, at least not yet. FVX is currently -.7 bps, and while equities can dive without commensurate buying in bonds, we haven't seen that in a long time. HUI and XAU are holding their gains, the TRINQ remains just above 2, and TICK.NQ is -162. There's plenty of selling going on here, but not enough to take out support. Will the bulls blink first? Perhaps. But until I see buying in bonds signalled by a dive in treasury yields, I'll continue to smell an impending bounce.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  1:54:02 PM
Except for Slovakia's market, all European bourses ended up for the day, although some gains were minimal. The FTSE 100 closed up 43.30 points or 1.15% at 3814.40, the CAC 40 ended up 49.27 points or 1.77% at 2837.96, and the DAX ended up 84.26 points or 3.28% at 2654.07.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  1:35:06 PM
Currently at 309.53, the SOX has now dropped below its 21-dma at 310.55, but so far remains above its simple 100 and 200-dma's, at 307.51 and 308.19, respectively.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  1:30:22 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm watching our pivot matrix for signs of support/resistance and while equities are all below those levels, the levels have been criscrossed for much of the day and haven't really been giving us intraday signals. The TNX seems to be setting a series of lower highs and lower lows, but has moved into an area of congestion and isn't really breaking down, either. The same can be said for the equity markets, which are back in the area we saw before last weeks breakdown. If we hold here, an argument can be made for a higher low. However if we roll over, then we'll have a lower high. Like Jeff, I am cautiously bullish, but as we head into earnings season with war still raging, it will be hard for anyone to tell us they see signs of a recovery. Of course, the excuse will still be "wait until the war is over," which will be better than "the war is over and still no increase in spending."

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  1:27:27 PM
Telephone Data Sys (TDS) $42.41 -0.4% ... stock has weakened as the session progresses, but now sits RIGHT AT THE BOTTOM of an upward trending regression channel. Near-term test for bearish thoughts is to get a break of the channel.

  Mark Phillips   4/4/03,  1:26:49 PM
Mark, Yes the software sector has been volatile of late. But take a look at Citrix Systems chart(CTXS). It's had some run since July 2002 lows. Finding resistance at $15. P&F chart is indicating an Alert Double Top Breakout. In the past OI has talked about CTXS, can you comment on the present outlook for this stock? Thanks you're doing a great job!

Yes, CTXS has definitely held up very well over the past couple months in contrast to the rest of the tech sector and the GSO index. I've actually had it on my watch list for quite a while now, but just haven't seen what looked like a good risk/reward setup. Starting with the PnF chart, I think you can clearly see why I'm torn. Link

See, how we have in fact gotten a new Buy signal that gives a target of $24.50. That certainly looks bullish. But I also note the recent rejection from the $15.00 level, which is just below the site of the bearish resistance line ($15.50). That tells me the stock likely needs to pull back for another run at resistance. Looking at the longer term candle chart, I see weekly stochastics already topped out in overbought territory and we can see where the $15-16 level is the beginning of very strong resistance on that weekly chart. More importantly in the near-term, we have bearish stochastics divergence on the daily chart, with a higher high in price and a lower high in Stochastics on the latest upward surge. Not looking good from the bullish standpoint over the near term. That said, CTXS is a strong stock in the Software sector and I would certainly not be looking for a bearish play here.

I'd personally look for a pullback into the $12.00-12.50 area, with the weekly Stochastics bottoming in oversold as my trigger to enter a longer-term bullish play. And should the stock get hit with a warning or downgrade like so many others in the sector, I'd watch the $10.50-11.00 area as critical support. A trade at $10 would print a new PnF Sell signal and negate the current bullish price target. Frustrating as it may be, CTXS looks like a good bullish target, but not at this time. The waiting is the hardest part!

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  1:18:08 PM
Volume patterns show more advancing issues than declining issues on the NYSE, with the opposite being true of the Nasdaq. Up volume is slightly ahead of down volume on the NYSE, but down volume is more than double up volume on the Nasdaq. New highs lead new lows. Total volume is 670 million shares on the NYSE and 825 million on the Nasdaq. Robust Nasdaq volume on a down day is not particularly comforting to bullish players.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  1:16:53 PM
I've just received a couple of emails inquiring as to bullish plays in different NDX and tech-related sectors. Without diving into the specifics of those inquiries, my feeling is that there is indeed a wave of selling due soon, but not before another move higher. The support in the 1378-1382 COMPX- 25.90-26.00 QQQ area is significant, and we've been seeing bounce after bounce. Now, the Teflon Market is due to correct sooner or later, and the textbook rejection at the 200 day EMA for the COMPX yesterday was very convincing to me. But that's a good distance overhead today, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a bounce from here. What with the promises made by the Fed and the BOJ, our friends Al Green and To Fukui, I'd be reluctant to trade for a cascade waterfall decline just yet. The bulls are still placing bets and the bears (such as myself) are still timid. Another spike upward would motivate those bulls and scare those bears. I therefore expect to see more upside, but not on any but a short term basis. I expect to do better with bearish trades next week than I have recently. That's just my feeling- hope that helps.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  1:10:29 PM
American Express (AXP) $35.26 +1.73% .... stock is a "Dow gainer" today and p/f chart action begins to interest bulls. After a double-top buy signal at $38, stock pulled back to $33 and very young bullish support trend and starts to see some rebound last couple of days. I like to pick out a few "key stocks" and the cautiously bullish side of me wanted to see the stock holde above $32 for most part, to have me thinking stock has a shot at bullish count of $50, if not at least its December highs. In my mind.... as it relates to the major indexes, if AXP can trade its December highs, then the Dow can too. If AXP can trade the $50, well..... then the Dow should trade bullish too. Link

I think of AXP as being in the "middle" of the Dow. With MMM being at the "head" of the Dow, and AA at the tail.

Think of these three stocks as an inchworm.

Tail= AA, Mid= AXP, Head= MMM

AA Link AXP Link MMM Link

A bull wants the "head" to lead, the mid part to follow, and the tail to either anchor itself, or move up and provide further "traction" for the stronger mid and head to lead an advance.

If the tail falters and begins to slip, then bulls begins to become concerned for mid and tail.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  1:09:36 PM
After Wednesday's rise, OEX prices got far ahead of the 60-minute 21-pma. This moving average has been moving up toward the price candles, and today's dips have so far found support from that moving average, currently at 445.28. This moving average might be important to watch, too.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  1:05:13 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 4,892 +0.45% ... 1,2 and 3-lettered stocks of the NYSE holding tough today and after lower open of 4,870 hanging in here. I've set an aler at intra-day high of 4,902 for alert to any market strength, but really starting to look as if today is going to end up "range bound" type of trade or slow bleed lower at this point.

  Mark Phillips   4/4/03,  12:55:57 PM
Re: Opentext. There has been 14 software downgrades in last two days.

After "doji" on OTEX yesterday that looks like it could be next. Two articles are not being king to OTEX. One from you guys and one on Feb 20. Your thoughts please. Thanks

If I recall correctly, we had featured OTEX as a potential put play recently, and dropped it due to its refusal to drop, even in the face of weakness in the Software sector. While the $29-30 area continues to provide strong resistance for the stock, I note that it doesn't seem to be sharing the weakness of the sector. Certainly OTEX looks like it could be vulnerable to the downside, especially if it gets hit with a dowgrade. But we are still in an environment where fundamentals and news seem to be getting ignored.

I personally don't like (from a bearish perspective) the pattern of higher lows over the past couple weeks, with support being consistently found at the 50-dma. Note also that volume has continue to be stronger on the up days than on the down days. Note also that the PnF chart is still on a Buy signal, with a bullish price target of $38. Link

That isn't to say it couldn't prove to be a good downside play, but it doesn't look sufficiently bearish according to the indicators I follow to tempt me to play it. If forced to play it bearish, I would only consider entries on rally failures in the $29.00-29.50 area, with a tight stop at $30.10, just above the february highs.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  12:55:50 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.917% ... basically "unchanged" now, so this is where YIELD closed yesterday and a bit of a benchmark if you will to where equity indexes were trading at 03:00 PM EST before there close.

Observation is that NASDAQ-100 is perhaps "weakest" link in the indexes right now, and this obviously explained by PSFT and AFFX news.

Perhaps gives some "confirmation" to my longer-held fundamental belief that technology stocks are the "most suspect" simply based on my belief that they are so reliant on corporate spending. While it is not anyones stretch of imagination that the "war with Iraq" has delayed spending, NASDAQ-100 has really been a good performer in recent months. So much depends on a quick resolution and if resolved, its a waiting game to see if corporations spend.

Now... I MUST take note of this today, so if three month from now, technology stocks ABCDEFG reports a that revenues surged 30% quarter-over-quarter and the stock has made a 20% move higher from mid-March, that I don't get overly exuberant in the stock at that time.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  12:42:08 PM
The COMPX/ QQQ are breaking down to new lows, with QQQ printing 26, which is the top of the 25.90-60 resistance zone, COMPX 1380. I would only be trading this level on a bullish scalp basis, with a stop loss just underneath this support range, or waiting for a confirming breakdown below this range to initiate shorts. FVX now -1.7 bps, TRINQ 2.23, QQV 38.68.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  12:35:55 PM
At 310.74, the SOX dips closer to those three important converging moving averages: the 21-dma at 310.62, the simple 100-dma at 307.53, and the simple 200-dma at 308.19. Watch this area for a potential bounce or a potential breakdown. The daily oscillators are inconclusive, not giving many clues.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  12:34:34 PM
Verity (VRTY) $13.67 -4% ... I wanted to look at this "strong stock" in software and see how it was fairing today. I hadn't been watching the stock in recent session and stock has been under pressure.

Per my "Ask the Analyst" column regarding a subscriber's question as to either selling his call options or taking posession of the stock at $15.

Right now, if having taken possession of the stock, I would look to write a covered call in the $15's or $12.50 at this point. I did not realize the stock had broken $14.00. Link

I have a retracement on VRTY from $22.25-$7.90, which has 38.2% retracement holding support on a CLOSING basis the last four sessions and most likely hints of "old bulls" looking for bargians.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  12:23:48 PM
An article in CNNfn is worth reading, titled "Trading Like Lemmings". It points to the recent action and correlates it to earlier periods. There's a chart by CSFB in the article that, in my opinion, eloquently depicts the risk to the bullish case given recent "pack-like" trading behavior. I'm less impressed with the article and the author's conclusions than I am with the CSFB chart. Read the article and draw your own conclusions.


  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  12:21:58 PM
Reader Question: Both PG and PGR look like very good short plays. Am I missing something?

Response: Good question. Over the last few years, bullish plays on upside breakouts proved deadly to trading accounts, as those breakouts were mostly doomed to fail. I assume that's in your mind as you're considering these for short plays. The SEC prevents us from giving individual advice on particular stocks, but it is possible to examine how I would research the tactic you're considering.

First, I consider the investing climate. Although the reports I read each morning when preparing the reports on European and Asian markets leave me troubled and uncertain about long-term prospects for global economies, I'd be reluctant to short almost anything in the current climate, when one encouraging report on CNBC might prompt a whoosh up in the markets. Also, although I'm no expert on P&F charting, I always glance first at P&F charts to give me first guidance, and both PG and PGR are on buy signals and above bearish resistance levels. That would be enough warning for me not to go further with the idea of shorting a stock.

A look at the candlestick weekly charts shows another warning. PG looks to have just popped above a descending trendline that began forming in January 2000 on the weekly chart. Of course, it's not out of the woods yet, as it's possible for stocks to make brief forays above these lines and then fall back inside, but shorting a stock that recently broke a long-term chart formation to the upside wouldn't fit my own trading parameters. Similarly, PGR has popped above recent resistance and has confirmed a double-bottom in the weekly chart that predicts a move even higher. While I'm still reluctant to enter bullish plays on breakouts such as these, at least until there's been a successful retest, betting on the bearish side wouldn't fit my parameters, either. Of course, having said that, both stocks may be due for pullbacks or retests of recently broken resistance, but counting on those pullbacks for a profit in a bearish position would be too risky for me. That doesn't mean that such a position couldn't be profitable, but only that the risk/reward parameters don't seem weighted in favor of bearish plays, and in fact might seem heavily weighted against them. You've obviously learned a lot about how markets react on breakouts over recent years, but this may be a time to step back and assess whether that same reaction can be expected in the near future.

  Mark Phillips   4/4/03,  12:16:07 PM
I haven't seen any news on it today, Jonathan. But I'll bet it has something to do with a snag in the deal with Nestle. It was already catching flak from regulators a couple weeks ago, and I'm betting something happened to make traders think the deal is off.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  12:12:37 PM
Swing Trade Signals
TNX continues to set lower lows and the COMP stays negative, while the Dow climbs. Gold up, oil down. I'm seeing far too many contradictions to enter a trade confidently right now, but I also note the VIX climbing over 34%. If it weren't for the equity market, I'd be bearish (GRIN).

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  12:11:28 PM
Any doubt about using stoplosses? Check out DRYR on a realtime chart. I have no idea what just happened, but it's quite a move.

  Mark Phillips   4/4/03,  12:05:19 PM
As the broad market struggles back from its lows this morning, it is clear that investors are trying to decide what is more important -- the dismal employment report or the potential for good news coming from the war front. Funny, that sentence could be applied to any day this week!

The rather directionless action is reflected in the OIN play list with none of those dozen plays showing a change greater than $1. The best performer is the WFMI call play, which rebounded from just above the $56 level again and is now back over the $57 level, which was a level of resistance earlier in the week. Despite that strength, WFMI is still pinned between recent support ($56) and resistance ($58), reflecting the fact that while buyers are willing to buy the dips to support, they don't have the conviction to push through resistance. That remains the best strategy for this play as well.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  12:00:28 PM
The bounce off the day lows has been weak so far. FVX is just above flat, +.5 bps today. QQV is falling back slightly, as fear remains persistent, +1.56 today. HUI and XAU are holding their gains. TRINQ 1.78, TICK.NQ +21.

The breakdown in QQQ looks like a sloppy head and shoulders on the 3 minute candles, and the neckline, while difficult to place, is in the 26.36 area. The bounce off the lows has yet to challenge that line, but I see a signficant challenge in that area on any move higher. Because price is in a range between strong support and strong resistance, expect more of the same today- rangebound trading. Scalps at support and resistance are the recipe for today, but I'm sitting it out for the time being.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  11:50:15 AM
It's "wierd" isn't it? This firming in the major indexes today, despite some of the "bad news."

Over the years, I've seen how when the braoder bullish % reverse up, institutional fund managers that have cash from investor inflows just start buying stocks, if not indexes to gain further bullish exposure. The narrower bullish % is usually sign of "select" buying and as prices rise among the more liquid large caps, then institutions star picking away at the "middle of the inchworm" and with time the "tail of the inchworm" or weakest stocks.

The key is... will the "hybrid" fund managers (buys bonds and stocks) sell his/her Treasuries and re-position among corporate bond, junk bond and stock.

As we looked at the ABNDX and AHITX, we "know" there's been some buying in corporate and junk bonds, and equities have benefited too. "Just keep selling those Treasuries" says the equity bull as it will eventually flow toward stocks.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  11:44:23 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

I forgot to post this earlier.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  11:42:07 AM
Geron (GERN) $5.94 -5.4% .... SPECULATIVE bulls may begin looking for pullback entry points. I'd prefer to wait until the close and set up a new WEEKLY pivot analysis on the stock. Look for a "level" that may tie in with things. Volume is beginning to "dry up" on the pullback, so order flow should be calming down and I would think that we might look for some inventory re-build among market makers.

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in the GERN Sept. $5 calls.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  11:25:39 AM
Great service and love your thoughts. Now for the ? Why in the world would you look for a short covering going into a weekend, were the day to day outcome of the war is truely not known? I'm seeing some large spikes in selling in the SPY(480,000) at 10:12 amd 370,000 at 10:09. Also, a friend of mine at CSFB was telling me this morning his clients are starting to load up on QQQ puts as a security measure. He as well as I belive we will be in a rage of 850-890 in the S&P for the next couple of weeks and the nasdaq at 1320-1400. And with the VIX at 33 creeping higher... it's not really a good sign. I think I would only go long if we had a weekly close below 30. Thanks again.

You make some good points and I am really looking at the end of day activity the past couple of Fridays. Last week, we ended down on the day, but got a bounce into the close and a ramp up the previous Friday, as well (although much larger). Uncertainty IS the reason for covering positions - as opposed to putting on new shorts. Your observation on the VIX is also interesting and I'd note that we are testing former support at 34% on this latest rise. A close back above 34% would look bearish. However, a pullback from that level might indicate time for another equity bounce. Here is a VIX chart with the support resistance levels I am watching highlighted. Link

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  11:18:18 AM
Reader Question: Can you make any comment on yesterday's 4/3/2003 candle on MCK?

Response: I know that others are covering this stock and I'm not even sure whether it's being covered from a bullish or bearish slant, but the candle is so interesting that I thought I'd limit my discussion to that candle. Yesterday's MCK candle is a high-wave candle: a candle with long lower and upper shadows. The long upper and lower shadows visually represent the struggle between bulls and bears. There were buyers waiting at yesterday's lows and sellers waiting at yesterday's highs, but neither was able to make much headway by day's end, despite robust volume. The real body is also small, another visual representation of indecision.

Whenever a trend is followed by a candle indicating indecision--a doji, a spinning top, a high-wave candle--market participants have been given a signal that the momentum may be waning. The trend may reverse. MCK has generally been rising off the March 14 low, so the trend has generally been an upward one, but it may be a stretch to qualify the most recent action as a rising trend since MCK has been consolidating over the last week or so. This muddies the picture somewhat. A high-wave candle in the middle of consolidation would be just another signal of the battle that's been going on. However, since this candle was also produced at resistance, more weight might be given to the reversal scenario, with the understanding that it's not as strong a signal as it might be and so might be less reliable. It might signal more consolidation to come rather than an actual reversal.

Just as Jeff often notes whether a stock or index tends to fulfill its upside or downside targets, I often study the charts to see whether the stock or index tends to react in a normal fashion to potential candlestick reversal signals. Does MCK often produce high-wave candles? Are they produced most often during consolidation or when MCK is trending? If produced when MCK is trending, does MCK tend to reverse afterwards? In other words, are the signals reliable? MCK does seem to produce either high-wave or long-legged candles with some regularity, often at reversals. Sometimes those reversals are short-lived, however. I said I would limit the discussion to candlesticks, but I couldn't help peeking at the oscillators, too. They're signaling the same indecision that produced that high-wave candle and the recent consolidation. My conclusion: given its production at near resistance, I'd say that the candle shows some waning of the enthusiasm that pushed MCK off the recent low. Market participants aren't sure whether to chase it higher. Yet, I don't think the bears have won the battle just yet, either. MCK may consolidate a bit longer before the final decision has been made, but bulls buying the recent move up have been given a warning to be alert to a potential need to guard profits.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  11:11:26 AM
We're seeing rangebound trading just above support on the COMPX/ QQQ, while FVX sinks lower, now +.4 bps. HUI and XAU are showing strength, +2.25 and +.66 respectively. The weakness in gold and strength in HUI could be hedgies shorting the metal and going long the miners, the reverse of what we saw earlier this year. That's just a guess. FVX has slipped negative as I type, now -.1 bps.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  10:56:32 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The slide in equities has coincided witht he bounce in oil prices. Here is a chart showing 200-dma support in oil, which happens to coincide with our tests of the 200-dmas in the SPX/OEX. Link

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  10:42:23 AM
Volume appears thin so far this morning, with 252 million shares traded on the NYSE and a somewhat more normal 389 million on the Nasdaq. On the NYSE, the adv/dec ratio is 1.36, reflecting the greater number of advancers, but advancing and declining issues are neck-and-neck on the Nasdaq, where down volume is more than twice up volume. On the NYSE, up and down volume figures are roughly equal. New highs predominate on both.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  10:40:41 AM
QQQ's move above 26.17 appears to be an upside breakout of the bullish descending wedge identified earlier. This projects a move back up to the 26.55 area, but we'll want to see the Qubes gain some upside traction here. TRINQ at 2.57 indicates solid selling pressure, and QQV +1.96 indicates solid fear in the options market. The chart pattern is important, but should be supported by the indicators. The TRINQ has just dropped to 2.0, which is lending the pattern some support.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  10:40:03 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.925% has been YIELD low and currently edging back up at 3.945%. Not using as a "trade signal," but really monitoring things here today. Note YIELD low is right around the WEEKLY pivot. Can't really be bearish/bullish for trade right now, unless stock specific action tells a trader otherwise.

For equity index traders, following/monitoring this bond market action is SO IMPORTANT in my opinion as you're buying/selling a basket of equities that will really see braoder buying/selling based on bond action and money flows.

My current stance is "cautiosly bullish" for equities.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  10:37:21 AM
Telephone Data Systems (TDS) $42.81 +0.49% ... This is a stock familliar to those that have been with us awhile. Profiled this one as bearish back in late December as BEARISH from $49 area and stock performed nicely to the downside. Look for a roll back lower at $42 as short/put with target being the bearish vertical count of $30. Link

Disclosure: I bought 1 contract this morning in the Aug. $45 (TDSTI) for $5.00 as partial bearish. Tried sitting a bid yesterday, but the stock and the options trade thin.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  10:35:26 AM
Kudos to Jeff on his 9:48:38 bond discussion.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  10:35:16 AM
CNBC and other sources report that Iraqi TV aired a video of Saddam Hussein, in which he said that coalition forces have not been able to crack resistance. At this time, it's not clear when the video was made.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  10:31:35 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Getting a continued fade in the TNX and a rise in oil and gold to go along with the drop in equities. I'm still not convinced we'll sell off. Even if Iraq does use chemical/biological weapons, I think we'll see short cover ahead of the weekend. I don't have enough conviction to pick a bottom at these levels, but that's my gut feeling.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  10:29:17 AM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 2.819% ... has seen buying and YIELD now unchanged. A bit defensive here as this bond's YIELD saw strong selling earlier to 2.89%. Nothing major at this point, but seeing some bond action that is defensive toward stocks right now.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  10:26:39 AM
Fractional stock weakness and buying in bonds came on MSNBC report that trades of mustard gas and cyanide were found in the Euphrates River in Iraq. Early reports are that Saddam Hussein's strategy may be to try and poison U.S. troops down river and Iraqi's to the south.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  10:17:35 AM
Remember 1378-82 COMPX? That's the next level of support. It was significant resistance many times over the past year, and it should put up some support- coincing roughly with the 25.90-26 QQQ range.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  10:17:04 AM
As the OEX moves toward the bottom of that megaphone formation on the 60-minute chart, the VIX moves back toward its 32.57 high of the day (currently 32.50). The OEX approaches either a bounce area or breakdown area. A sharp drop in the VIX might signal at least one more cycle up to the top of that megaphone, but a continued rise in the VIX accompanied by an OEX fall through the bottom of that megaphone formation could signal trouble for bulls. For five minutes or so, that is. Patterns showing up on 60-minute charts should be reliable, at least for daytrades, but that hasn't been the case lately.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  10:10:47 AM
So far no decent support, but the COMPX seems to be printing a descending wedge, which is a bullish formation. I'm not bullish here myself, but the pattern is what it is, printed on the 3 minute COMPX chart. TRINQ bearish at 2.21, TICK.NQ -171.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  10:08:46 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Rally fading, COMP in the red and the TNX fell out of a 5 min pennant I had drawn. However, oil is still lower and that has been a reliable bullish indicator for the past few months. I can remember very few days when the price of oil and equities went the same way on the same day.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  10:08:05 AM
"Junk bonds" ... Here's a chart of the American Funds High Income Trust (AHITX) Link which is a mutual fund of higher YIELDing "junk" bonds. RISKIEST

Here is a chart of American Funds Bond fund of America (ABNDX) Link which is a mutual fund of "higher-grade" corporate bonds. RISKIER than Treasury, but higher YIELDING.

And here's a chart of the 10-year bond ($UST) Link

Do you see the "shift" that is taking place, and how the prices are heading in different directions?

A bull market for equities STARTS to be found in the bond market. Doesn't it? Yes! It has to!!!! It has to!!! Why? Because bond debt is an OBLIGATION. There are no obligations associated with stock. And investing/trading is ALL about risk/reward.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  10:00:53 AM
COMPX is testing the bottom this week's range. I don't have the courage to try to buy this bottom, but this is a reasonable entry point for bulls looking for short term bullish trades- with a tight stop right underneath in case the bottom drops out.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  9:58:31 AM
Bulls who want to protect recent profits might be aware of a formation setting up on the 60-minute OEX charts. Yesterday, Vlada pointed out a megaphone formation setting up on the ES chart. That same formation shows up on the OEX 60-minute charts. These are usually bearish formations, although not always, of course. While letting this formation alert you, watch price action for the best guide. In this news-driven environment, I'm not even sure that's a good enough guide! Link

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  9:58:15 AM
ROOM$54.99 (+0.12) Another bad tick this morning, with put play ROOM showing a high of $56.80.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  9:58:10 AM
Al Green has just drained 8.5B net by refunding yesterday's expiring 10.75B repo with a 2.25B weekend repo. Expect higher yields today.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  9:51:25 AM
UNH $93.61 +0.61 OI call play UNH printed an open of $92.00 this morning, but I'm not sure if that's a bad tick. I believe it is, since I'm having a hard time finding it anywhere on the charts. Of course it's possible the specialst just needed some pocket money for the weekend (GRIN).

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  9:48:38 AM
Excellent comments from bond pit conversation on CNBC! Rick Santelli saying that Insurance company's that are always buyers of debt (to back insurance policies, they use bonds Treasury, high-grade corporate and junk) and that the bulk of buyer interest is corporate and junk.

Santelli saying that bond trader are just like stock traders and all they do is move money to those instruments that offer the BEST risk/reward.

The BULLISH comments he made is that Insurance companies have been more aggressive buyers of corporate and building interest for junk.

I've talked about this type of trade several months ago. As it relates to the bond market, Treasuries are deemed "safest" or lowest risk. Among Treasury, 5-year is "safest" then 10 and finally 30-year (longer maturity more risk, but each still backed by the full faith and credit of U.S. Govt.).

Then.... as you step into higher grade corporate, you're getting more YIELD. This makes sense. Corporations don't have a money printing press like the govt. so your bond interest payment is backed by the company's ability to earn money and pay the bond's interest.

As the MARKET senses economic recovery, it should "roll out" of Treasury (lower yield as "risk" is lower) into higher grade corporate (higher YIELD than Treas., but interest payment backed by earnings). This is what Mr. Santelli says is going on. We can check this for ourselves and will discuss how later.

Then... as MARKET gets further conviction of economic recovery, it will take on MORE RISK and go to "junk" market. HIGHER YIELDS here, sometimes 14% as the company that has issued bonds at that rate have a weaker balance sheet and have to pay a higher borrowing rate to bond buyers because their company debt is considered HIGH risk. However, these higher YIELD "junk bonds" can see great price appreciation if company's balance sheet does better as economic recovery boosts top and bottom-line results. If so, then MARKET perceives as less risky and begins buying more aggressively until bonds price rises so much, that YIELD for that "junk bond" falls.

What Mr. Santelli is saying is that the willingness of bond market to begin buying out to "junk" is a sign that bond MARKET is really looking for strengthening economy as the buying of "junk" is the "riskiest" trade in the bond market.

What's riskier than a junk bond? Stocks.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  9:47:42 AM
caveat to last post: The COMP continues to struggle at 1400, which will continue to be an anchor until broken.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  9:46:21 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Yields building, my guess from here is higher.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  9:46:10 AM
FVX is back up to +3.6 bps on the day, and we could be seeing a short term bottom printed out of the gate. TRINQ 2.2 shows strong selling breadth on the COMPX. No clear direction from here. A long scalp at the low of the day, 1390 support, or a short at resistance, 1400 then 1412, seem to be reasonable targets so far.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  9:46:08 AM
Buy Program Dow=8,296, SPX= 882, OEX = 448, NDX= 1,064, QQQ=$26.50.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  9:45:18 AM
The OEX retraced more than half of its first five-minute candle--something bulls did not want to see happen--but did not fall back beneath opening levels--something bears did want to see happen. Stay tuned.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  9:45:15 AM
Indexes are matched almost identical to the 10-year YIELD right now as it relates to the pivot analysis charts we looked at in last night's Index Wrap. Now we begin looking for DIVERGENCE.

For Instance... I'm more "bullish" so I'm looking to buy Index WEAKNESS if Treasury YIELD holds firm or moves higher.

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  9:43:02 AM
The SOX is down this morning in early trading, perhaps reacting in part to chipmaker STM's statement saying that order delays seen in the first quarter caused it to fall short of Q1 targets. Currently, the SOX is down 4.10 to 315.16. If the SOX continues down, watch the multiple MA's grouped between 307.50 and 310 to see if support holds.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  9:41:38 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Stocks pull back, Yields bounce, getting some equilibrium here and hopefully we can see some tandem movement to gauge the rest of the day.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  9:40:43 AM
Sell Program ... Dow = 8,261, SPX= 878, OEX= 446, NDX= 1,060, QQQ = $26.40.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  9:39:18 AM
NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) 1,061.60 -0.35% ... the laggared index this morning as might be expected. With 10-year YIELD above its WEEKLY pivot, will look for NASDAQ-100 to gravitate toward 1,055 and would begin looking for firming there.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  9:30:58 AM
4 point gap up open to COMPX 1400, QQV +.79, TRINQ 1.64, TICK.NQ +261.

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  9:29:59 AM
Swing Trade Signals
TNX just got slammed in the past few minutes, not boding well for an opening rally.

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  9:29:49 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) ... 3.953% here, and looks to be finding some YIELD resistance in our 39.55-39.63 area, after a early morning high of 39.84 or 3.984%. Cant's get overly bullish for equities at the open

  Jeff Bailey   4/4/03,  9:23:24 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Steven Price   4/4/03,  9:22:27 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm watching the TNX pull back from yesterday's highs and wondering if it will hold this time or if we will see a repeat. Fridays have been awfully tricky to trade the past few weeks, since we generally get a feel for what is expected to develop over the weekend in Iraq. If it happens, the trend continues. If not, we get a sudden reversal on Monday. I am leaning toward staying flat ahead of the weekend due to this unpredictability, rather than taking home a position and hoping things go my way in the war effort. Of course I've said that before and entered anyway. I'll let the opening shake out and then test my convictions. Keep an eye on those 200-dmas sitting just above us, they could be pivotal again.

  Jim Brown   4/4/03,  8:51:31 AM
The Market Monitor will be down for about 5 min as we reboot the server.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  8:39:06 AM
Equities are rallying on the bad economic news, QQQ now 26.70, NQ futures +9, ES futures +10.50, FVX +5.7 bps, TNX +6.3 bps, and TYX +5.7 bps.

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  8:37:32 AM
Unemployment rate holds at 5.8% as U.S. employers cut another 108,000 jobs from payrolls; Feb payroll loss revised to 357,000 from 308,000: more details at Link

  Jonathan Levinson   4/4/03,  8:05:34 AM
The US Dollar Index is up strongly off its lows to 100.49, in a rounding "archway" formation that seems to be nearing its peak. The futures are up, which is miraculous in light of how it was looking yesterday evening, currently NQ3M +1 to 1068, ES3M +6.25 to 879.50, QQQ 26.48. Gold is getting hammered, currently at 322.60.

I spoke with my friend and mentor last night and we talked briefly about the Teflon Market. He told me that he has begun listening to MSNBC to follow the war news, and said that the tape is following the news quite closely, and ignoring the economy entirely. I will continue to follow the tape and the news headlines, and leave it at that for the moment. The news after the close was bad, with many bad corporate results announced, but it's clear that the market will continue to shake off bad news of this nature. I'm remaining in scalp mode with new trades, and am enjoying not taking home any new positions at the end of the day.

News for this morning:

8:30 am: Average Workweek for March, prior 34.1, consensus 34.2

8:30 am: Hourly Earnings for March, prior 0.7%, consensus 0.2%

8:30 am: Nonfarm Payrolls for March, prior -308K, consensus -40K

8:30 am: Unemployment rate for March, prior 5.8%, consensus 5.9%

  Linda Piazza   4/4/03,  7:06:00 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened down 49.54 points in Friday's trading, but trimmed its losses by half by the middle of the trading day. After plummeting yesterday, Japanese banks continued to fall in early trading but then began moving up again. Each day sees fresh rumors of another bank lowering guidance, and today those rumors concerned Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group. Across the region, early trading in tech stocks was mixed, with Samsung and LG Electronics dropping, but with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Rival United Microelectronics climbing.

However, that was the story of trading before the confirmation that coalition forces had secured the Saddam Hussein International airport. That news powered the bounce in the banks and other stocks. The Nikkei closed up 56.37 points or 0.7% to 8074.12. Despite increasing concerns over SARS that led the U.S. to advise all diplomats and their families to leave China, Asian airliners rose. Korean Air Lines announced that it would raise international fares in order to offset lower demand due to SARS.

Wim Duisenberg, President of the ECB, spoke yesterday about increasing Eurozone unemployment, lowered demand for exports produced in Europe, and eroding consumer confidence, all exacerbated by the war in Iraq. Still, European markets moved higher today, helped by the news relating to the Saddam Hussein International airport as well as breaking news this morning that 2,500 Iraqi soldiers surrendered. (This breaking news is sometimes refuted earlier in the day, so treat this with some caution until confirmed later.) At the time of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 44.10 points or 1.17% to 3815.20, the CAC 40 is up 53 points or 1.9% to 2841.69, and the DAX is up 65.36 points or 2.54% to 2635.17. All had traded in negative territory at one point in early trading.

  Jeff Bailey   4/3/03,  1:31:46 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  Vlada Raicevic   4/3/03,  1:31:39 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  Steven Price   4/3/03,  1:31:29 AM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

  Steven Price   4/3/03,  1:30:25 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.


Market Monitor Archives