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  Steven Price   4/9/03,  3:57:19 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Dow breaks 8200, looks like no one wants to be long going into the close. Not sure why, but it ain't pretty. This reversal is almost 200 points from today's high.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  3:51:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
COMP extending to lows of the day - not sure what led to the sudden sell-off, but it's looking like we are making a run at 1350.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  3:37:46 PM
Reader Comment: Am I seeing something that's not there? Looking at daily charts for the major indexes I'm seeing something that looks like side-by-side h&s patterns (with a little imagination on the left shoulders). SOX is what got me looking at it. Is this a "real pattern"? If so, does it have any meaning different from or more than a single h&s? Ever seen it before?

Response: So I'm not the only one seeing H&S's everywhere. (See my 14:17 and 15:14 posts.) Kent's 3:15 intraday update also pointed out an INDU H&S on the intraday charts, and this reader notices a potential H&S on the SOX daily chart. I had noticed that formation on the SOX daily chart, but the neckline is slanted so steeply that I wasn't sure how predictive it would be, just as I also am not sure of predictions based on the out-of-proportion OEX H&S formation. However, the psychology that leads to H&S formations may be operating to help form that slanting formation on the SOX daily chart. A neckline break of that formation would occur rather shortly or may be occurring already, but it's actually the 294 area that holds more relevance, since it's the site of historical resistance, near the site of the 50-dma, and also at the level of a longer-term (October-to-present) ascending trendline. As with the OEX H&S, I think we could consider the pattern bearish, but I'm not sure we could predict downside targets based on this pattern. The answer to the reader's last two questions is, "Yes." H&S patterns do sometimes form side by side or nearly so. This happened over the course of the last year with the OEX, for example, when a H&S formed, hit its target, rose up, and formed another H&S at nearly the same levels.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  3:35:27 PM
Possibilities that I'm planning on adding to the Watch List tonight:

Short: SNE, MXIM, ABC

Long: RGLD (negative market play, triple-top buy at $15.50, gap starts above $16.01)

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  3:30:03 PM
Swing Trade Signals
This latest rally took place just after the bond market closed. We've been setting a series of higher highs and higher lows on the 5 min chart since the last test of 8200 and I can envision a ramp up into the close to get us near unchanged. The TNX finished just above 3.9 at 3.901, but that was still a lot closer to the bottom than the top. I'm not sure what we can take from today's technical action, but at least we saw the reaction to what looks like the end of the war and it was unspectacular. I'll carry my 1/4 short position overnight unless something changes significantly in the next 1/2 hour.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  3:27:02 PM
The put to call ratio keeps staying down at the .70 area, which is a bear's best friend. As long as they keep trading calls, it looks like no one's believing that the move will go lower- a great contrarian indicator. Unfortunately, the ratio can go lower, so it's not an absolute, but worth following.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  3:22:08 PM
I'd be thinking of the PPT, Al Green and To Fukui kickin it on the corner, dialing in the ramp job with their streaming pager quotes and super-small Bluetooth-earpieced celphones, but this pause/bounce at the lows is far too subtle, nothing like the line drives that have left me flattened and mostly disrobed like Charlie Brown on the pitcher's mound. Bonds are closed, but we see no change in the TRINQ, QQV or TICK.NQ so far. HUI and XAU saw a bit of selling but are holding up.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  3:21:33 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,270 -0.34% ... has battled back to trade down 30 points here. Should find sellers at our 38.2% retracement from WEEKLY pivot analysis work. This 8,276 level, when broken to downside at 12:00 served resistance 30-minutes later before Dow fell to session low of 8,214. If I'm going to get bullish pullback entry, need this 8,276 level to serve resistance here.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/9/03,  3:21:11 PM
The 3:15 update has been posted: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  3:14:31 PM
Do you ever have one of those days when you're just seeing H&S's everywhere? No? Maybe it's just me. Sometimes I see wedges everywhere and sometimes H&S's. While the longer-term OEX intraday charts (if that's not a contradiction) show a H&S that formed from April 2 until now, today's five-minute OEX chart shows a potential reverse H&S that began forming this afternoon, with a rising neckline now located at 444.60. As I've mentioned before, patterns formed on five-minute charts aren't as reliable as patterns formed on longer-term charts, but this at least validates the importance of the 444-445 levels. A move through the five-minute reverse H&S pattern would predict a move back toward 446, but let's just see. In order to move up through that neckline, the OEX also has to move back above the already-violated H&S neckline shown on the longer-term 30-minute and 60-minute charts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  2:57:07 PM
The 444.29 OEX level hit about fifteen minutes ago retested the broken H&S neckline on the intraday chart. That test was unsuccessful, but can't be completely considered a failure until the OEX also moves below the last interim low, the day's low at 441.69. The OEX has steadied instead above that level. Let's see what happens next--another retest of the broken neckline or a move toward the day's low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  2:42:30 PM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,033 -1.2% .... I couldn't figure out why 1,033 looked familliar. Then pulled up chart from last night's Index Trader Wrap and this is "filled gap" to downside and 61.8% retracement from WEEKLY Pivot. I'm going to suggest that Index Bulls looking for pullback entry wait until tomorrow morning, see if we can't get it a little cheaper and get another read from the bond market.

It looks like the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.907% wants to hang around this 3.903% level and WEEKLY Pivot. In my mind... this sets up the more "ideal" pullback entries for bulls.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  2:42:09 PM
The TRINQ blew off most of its peak readings and is now at 2.65, with the TICK.NQ up to -47. QQV is -.49, as the put to call ratio drops to .69. There is a great deal of call speculation going on. The FVX is well off its low but not showing much strength, -3.6 bps, and the combination of these indicators tells me to expect more drifting around near the lows. Yahoo reports tonight, and the Statue-Rally-That-Wasn't seem to be keeping a lid on things for the time being. I'm still debating how I feel about that ascending trendline on the COMPX daily candles, but am inclined to take my back month put position home with me again tonight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  2:36:43 PM
Pacholder High YIELD Fund (PHF) $7.79 +0.12% ... up just a penny today, but I've had several questions regarding this "junk bond" closed-end fund that I mentioned in previous comments.

Fellow trader sent me a couple of "links." One is to Nuveen's site and discusess various fundamentals Link and another to "CEFA," which is the Closed-end Fund Association's site Link

Several questions have been asked regarding "discount" and "premium" to NAV, along with other questions that can be answered here. Just remember... these closed-end funds trade like equities, and their price is DICTATED by the MARKET. Unlike open-end funds (Janus, American Funds, etc.) that you may own in your 401-k, which their holdings are "marked to the market" each night.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  2:33:25 PM
Currently at 27.41, GE has fallen back below the key 28 level, with the daily RSI signaling bearish divergence. However, daily OBV continues to cycle up, and so far today, GE has bounced from its horizontal exponential 200-dma at 27.17, with the GE LOD at 27.20. That 27.20 level is near historical support, too, so traders who are bullish GE might watch that level for signs that first support is failing. Below that, the 21-dma has risen to push through the simple 50, 100, and 200-dma's, with the 21 and 200-sma's now at 26.62 and 26.42, respectively. These are bullish signs. That 26.40-26.60 level might be the next level to watch for support should the first support fail. If bullish this stock, I would watch daily stochastics and other oscillators, too, hoping for a quick move down on the oscillators with a minimal price movement. A move below the March 31 low of 25.32 would show a troubling lower short-term low for GE, although there's also an ascending line off the February low that crosses just below that, at the current level of the 50-dma. So far, the bearish divergences seen in the RSI (and other oscillators) are only signaling a warning that is also balanced by some bullish signs, including a P&F buy signal.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  2:22:26 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Not sure what's behind this latest bounce, but a move above 8255 could be short-term bullish. Traders currently short along with me may want to lower stops to breakeven at 8273 if the war trading is causing frayed nerves. TNX ticked back above 3.9% after setting a new relative intraday low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  2:17:26 PM
The OEX intraday chart shows a "sort of" H&S formation, best seen on the 30-minute charts. I hesitated to mention it before now because the head was so out of proportion to the shoulders and since the head was partially formed by the April 7 candle that gapped up, but the move through 444.50-444 confirmed the neckline break of this formation. With the head so out of proportion, I hesitate to project a downside target from the formation, but just note the possible bearish implications of the formation. Perhaps the previous hour's two peaks near 444 could be considered unsuccessful tests of the neckline broken almost two hours ago. If not, it would be expected for the OEX to attempt another test of that broken neckline. A sustained move back above 445 would reject the bearish implications of this formation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  1:55:37 PM
The COMPX is going to try to bore us to death as it rests squarely on an ascending trendline from the March lows on the daily candle chart. FVX is down 4.7 bps, so the larger money isn't rolling out the proverbial barrel for an equities victory rally just yet. Still, I'm nervous, even as the put to call ratio remains bearishly low in the low .70s. QQV is flat, TICK.NQ -150, TRINQ 2.99. HUI is now up 4.02- it looks like they're trying to put HUI-Dumpty back together again.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  1:48:14 PM
Sounds like Syria has made the "who's next" list. Rumsfeld talked about the country ignoring the U.S. request to stop supplying the Iraqi military, but said we are still dealing with Iraq right now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  1:33:35 PM
For those at work and not watching television, a Pentagon briefing has just begun, and it might be possible that markets might see some volatility surrounding this briefing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  1:13:27 PM
The put to call ratio has just dipped to .70 on the latest reading as the dip gets bought with calls. FVX -4 bps, keeping an eye on it here.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/9/03,  1:07:14 PM
MMM $131.84 (-1.64) With the broad markets selling off on the good war news, MMM is following suit, cracking below the $132 level and looking like it wants to fill the gap down to the $130.84 level. A rebound from that area will be the next likely spot to look for new bullish entries. We knew this one was likely to be volatile, and that's the reason for the wide stop down at $129.75, just below what should be very strong support at $130.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  12:57:35 PM
Spot gold is currently up 3.90/oz, with HUI +3.36 and XAU +1.39. The FVX is moving up off its lows just printed, as are QQQ / COMPX. 1369 COMPX looks like resistance now, with much stronger resistance in the 1377 area. The TRINQ at 2.90 shows strong but not "blowoff" selling pressure. QQV is down .54, reflecting that QQQ option prices are lagging the move, shrinking implied volatility. If the decline reverses back up, the QQV will have tipped us off, but if the QQQ decline worsens from here, expect to see IVs and the QQV shoot up quickly.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  12:57:29 PM
A quick look at volume patterns shows that most are now slightly negative, with the exception of the adv/dec ratio on the NYSE, which still shows slightly more advancing than declining issues, and of the new highs/new lows ratios. Down volume outranks up volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Total volume is 632 million shares on the NYSE and 705 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  12:56:59 PM
Swing Trade Signals
we got the TNX break of 3.90, but bounced just above the morning's pre-open low of 38.90. The bounce took us back above 3.9, but it appears to be fading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  12:49:38 PM
The OEX 444 level has now been broken, of course, and the current 442.66 level puts the OEX right on an ascending trendline that formed as the OEX moved off the March 12 low. This trendline can be best seen on the 60-minute charts.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  12:45:52 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.901% ... back below the WEEKLY Pivot here and once again today... more DEFENSIVE action from the bond market. I don't like this action for equity bulls here and more so as it comes on a reversal from a YIELD rally.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  12:38:44 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The COMP has moved into its gap from April 2, but is still holding above support at 1368-1369. A move below that support, which held throughout much of the end of March, could signal a move down to the 1350 region.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  12:29:32 PM
The NDX is leading the indices lower today, down more than 1%. The FVX continues to sink lower, now -3.5 bps on the day, easing my short term fear of a bounce from the current level. Support should now become resistance, currently 1377 COMPX/ 25.90 QQQ.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  12:22:46 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We've taken out Tuesday afternoon's lows across the board, but I wouldn't quite call this a sell-off. TNX continues to find support at 3.9% and I'll be watching that line as the next significant level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  12:09:36 PM
Support just cracked with barely a peep, QQV still -.29 at 35.71 despite a TICK.NQ of -488. Gold is up better than 2$ today, FVX -3 bps. This is a relatively orderly decline so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  12:09:06 PM
The Wilshire 5000 daily chart is interesting. Currently at 8295.54 as I type, the Wilshire 5000 clings to the steeply rising bottom line of its own wedge and may be about to break through that line. The chart shows that the Wilshire first attempted to break out to the upside on Monday, pushing above the upper trendline, an extension of the old H&S neckline and up to the 200-ema intraday, but failing from those levels. If the Wilshire breaks through now to the downside, it has next support from 8250-8270 and then down near 8200. Link

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  11:55:23 AM
Dow now showing a 14/16 DEC/ADV split with only one stock showing more than a dollar of movment (UTX +$1.03)

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  11:50:10 AM
You don't suppose the amount of oil production from U.S. controlled Iraqi oil fields and thus the price of oil, will have anything to do with the state of the U.S. economy heading up to the 2004 elections, do you?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  11:47:21 AM
This could be a 5 minute candle bear flag off the low on this most recent move down on the COMPX. The sideways slide near the lows on treasury yields supports that interpretation. If so, then we could see support taken out here. TRINQ is a touch higher at 1.39, but nothing extreme yet. The indicators continue to tell us the obvious- we're near the bottom of a well-established range, with little bounce so far.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  11:44:58 AM
Swing Trade Signals
While we are getting some bounce in equities here, the TNX is just moving sideways. A break under 3.920 would signal bearishness in stocks and a break under 3.913 would be a break below the morning pullback low. Sitting at 3.923 right now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  11:33:46 AM
The OEX second-hour candle also failed at the regression channel pictured in the chart from my 10:28 post. This second-hour candle also saw the OEX move back below the 60-minute 21-pma at 449.52, with the first-hour candle having been the first time the OEX had a 60-minute close over this pma since Monday afternoon. As I mentioned in my 9:59 and 10:10 posts, support and resistance levels are layered in close intervals above and below current prices. I view these repeated failures at the regression channel as potentially bearish, but the OEX hasn't yet broken that 444 level, either, which would give me more conviction. On the weekly chart, the OEX has spent this week touching and then failing from the top of its neutral wedge, while on the VIX daily chart, the VIX has spent the last two days touching and then bouncing from the bottom of its own wedge. If I were forced to guess, I'd guess for a bearish outcome for the OEX since it entered the wedge after a decline, and since Pring states that the most normal resolution would be a continuation in the former direction, but the whole point of these wedges is that they can be broken either to the upside or the downside. I'm not guessing with my money just yet, at least not with new positions.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  11:33:25 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  11:31:13 AM
Yields and equities all dropping. Oil back to unch. Quick, find another statue!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  11:23:58 AM
FVX is now down 1.7 bps as bids return to the 5 year treasury note. This confirms the weakness we're seeing in the Qubes, but again, nothing extreme and no reason to expect this push down to be the breakout move. TRINQ is neutral at 1.22, QQV -.29, still more rangebound chop. HUI and XAU are in the green today as CEF makes a high of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  11:11:18 AM
So far, volume patterns appear positive, with adv/dec ratios of 2.7 on NYSE-traded issues and 1.88 on Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is 4.3 times down volume on the NYSE and 1.6 times down volume on the Nasdaq. New highs are more than twice new lows on both. Total volume is 344 million shares on the NYSE and 408 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  11:08:59 AM
Swing Trade Signals
TNX fell back to its morning gap level, where it is finding support. It has ticked briefly back down into the gap, but so far holding up on the pullback.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/9/03,  11:05:24 AM
Laughing!! That's great Steve!

ROOM $54.10 (-0.36) While it has clearly been a volatile start to the day with the positive developments in Iraq, ROOM once again looks like the picture of weakness. Early in the session, the stock fell through the $54 support level, tagging an intraday low of $53.05. While the stock did manage a rebound after hitting that low, it is now looking like resistance is building in the $54-55 area. Another rollover near the top of that range can be used for aggressive entries, while more conservative traders will want to wait for another drop under $54 before entering new positions. While volume isn't what we can call heavy, it is encouraging to see that it is heavier than what was seen during yesterday's extremely light-volume session.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  11:04:39 AM
The put to call ratio has just printed another .75 reading. FVX has gone fractionally negative now- more rangebound uncertainty.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  10:53:58 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are seeing a broad pullback in the last few minutes, but until the TNX gets back into the morning gap, I'd say the bulls are in control. That gap bottom is 3.936

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  10:51:53 AM
I'm expecting the Iraqi Information Minister to announce anytime that the U.S. troops are on the run.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  10:51:49 AM
Perhaps we'll get an EBAY rally on the prospect of auctioning pieces of the statue online :)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  10:48:21 AM
The put to call ratio has risen from .63 to .75, still showing a good deal optimism in my view, which coincides with the uneasiness I'm feeling for my partial QQQ put position. If the upper limit to the channel breaks, we could be looking at another flagpole higher, potentially to a retest of Monday's high. FVX is up a mere .3 bps on the current runup, QQV -.29, TIRNQ. 94 and TICK.NQ +436. Despite the strong TICK.NQ reading, the indicators look entirely undecided. QQQ is printing 26.26 as I'm hearing of the statue about to fall.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  10:44:33 AM
ImClone (IMCL) $18.24 +3.16% ... released for trading.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  10:35:16 AM
Q-chart performance has been spotty for me this morning, and I assume has been for some of you, too. Trading blind isn't fun. If this trouble continues, factor this into your trading decisions today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  10:28:41 AM
Here's an update of a 60-minute OEX chart you've seen several times over the last week, but it details some possible levels of overhead resistance, so I thought it might be useful if the OEX should continue to move up today. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  10:28:19 AM
Another failure in the 26.25 area. Treasury yields seem to have stalled and the markets seem to be waiting. There have been two moments today when it felt like a breakout was about to occur, first to the downside and then to the up, but the range remains intact.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  10:27:04 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
It appears the 8415 stop is in trouble. If I am stopped out, I'll probably sit on the sidelines until the events shake out. It appears it will all be over shortly and we can go back to trading the MARKET.

I am a little surprised at the recovery from this morning's drop. it's not as if the news got any better. Is news of Saddam seeking protection any better than the news that he was dead?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  10:24:16 AM
CNBC just reporting that Pentagon says there is no truth to previous reports that Saddam Hussein has sought refuge at Russian Embassy.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  10:21:52 AM
Buy Program 4th of the session and 3rd in last 15-minutes.

Dow +87, SPX +8, OEX +452, NDX +8.5, QQQ +$0.17.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.958%.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  10:18:25 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Dow is now above the daily R1 and is finding support at 8350 on the pullback. SPX and OEX also showing a 5 min close above R1 as well.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  10:13:40 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Yields all filled their gaps on this last rally. Dow fell 6 points short of its 200-dma at 8355. Al-Jazeera reports Saddam is seeking asylum from Russia.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  10:13:36 AM
News Wires Report that Saddam Hussein has taken refuge in the Russian embassy.

Dow +56 at 8,355, SPX +5 at 883, OEX +3 at 450, NDX +4 at 1,050, QQQ +$0.06 at $26.12.

10-year ($TNX.X) 3.953% and strong selling coming in on Treasuries. This move looks BULLISH!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  10:10:15 AM
In the last hour of trading yesterday, OEX highs were in the 448-448.22 range. Market participants might first watch that area for potential resistance, but two other levels, 448.80 and 450, provided resistance at other points yesterday, with the 450 area also being the top of the April 2 gap. These levels of resistance are layered in short intervals all the way up to the 61.8% retracement of the December 2 to March 12 move at 454.44 and then the exponential 200-dma at 459.32, to the Monday high of 460.44. It's difficult to pinpoint the place where resistance might turn back a move or where support might hold after a down move. As I typed, some of those resistance levels were already violated.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  10:07:31 AM
Wells Fargo (WFC) $46.88 -1.24% ... Offered $3 billion in 30-year convertible debt. Bonds carried a yield to maturity of 0.25 percentage points below Libor, and are convertible into WFC stock at $100, a 110.75% premium over yesterday's closing price. The bonds carry an unusual feature that can appeal to some hedge funds in that after 5-years, if WFC shares remain below $100, the bonds will be remarketed as nonconvertible debt. If the remarketing fails, investors may sell the convertibles back to WFC after 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  10:05:41 AM
The fed has announced no action for today, leading me to guess that yesterday's "RRP" vs. "Repo" press release/website discrepancy might have been a press release error after all. If it was a reverse repo, then today is a net addition of 2.25B, with yesterday's reverse repo (I presume) expiring today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  10:02:20 AM
Yields are up to flat, and support on the COMPX/QQQ held, with a low of COMPX 1375. The "Running of the Stops" is in full effect, as we see each s/r line get exceeded just a little before the reversal. QQV is up .20, and so far there's no indication of a failure of support yet, except that the bounce seems to be petering out even as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  10:00:39 AM
Sector action has quickly gone from "red" to "green" across the board. Though gains are modest at this point, sudden rise looks broadbased.

The longer-dated 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 4.928% now fractionally green and some selling coming in on the long end.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  9:59:18 AM
Since the April 2 bounce, the OEX consolidation band has had a low of 444.17, achieved on April 4. With the simple 100-dma at 444.92, with the 50% retracement of the December 2 to March 12 move at 444.09, and with historical support in the 444-445 area, bears want to see a violation of that 444 level. Below that, there's some support also near 442, the site of an ascending trendline that began forming on the 60-minute chart as the OEX moved off the March 12 low. Below that lies the 437-440 band that Steve mentioned last night in his wrap. Overhead resistance is layered just as closely.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  9:58:35 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Dow ticking back into positive territory. I really wish they'd get that statue down so we could focus on the economy again (GRIN).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  9:56:34 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.929% ... Treasuries nearing their lows of the session on PRICE, with YIELD back above the 3.903% level. Most likely would take a YIELD above 3.954% to really get any equity attention.

Traders and market participants seem to be focused on events in Iraq with news coverage showing a group of Iraqis attempting to pull down a statue of Saddam Hussein. Similar perhaps to the destruction of the Berlin Wall.

Major equity indexes fractionally lower to unchanged.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  9:55:07 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Getting another boost, but looking at the Dow 30, we see plenty of indecision. 11 up, 17 down, 2 unch, with not a single component moving more than 50 cents.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  9:50:13 AM
The 9:00 AM Intraday Update has been posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  9:48:11 AM
The VIX is up 1.30 as I type, to 30.89, with the opening number being near yesterday's highs. That can change as the day goes on, of course.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  9:43:58 AM
ImClone (IMCL) $17.68 Link ... halted. Company announces it will delay the announcement of Q4 results as well as the filing of its Form 10-K beyond April 15 due to the inability to finalize its audited financial statements pending completion of an ongoing internal review.

In addition, the company said it has received a request from the SEC for various documents and information relating to tax liabilities associated with the exercise of warrants and options by current and former officers, and that the company intends to cooperate with the SEC inquiry.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  9:43:49 AM
So much for the statue rally. The Dow is testing yesterday afternoon's support around 8285 and the SPX and OEX have ticked negative. Not really any downside follow thorugh here and I am wondering if we are in for another rangebound day. I doubt it, but I'm looking at the chart from the last few hours of yesterday's trading and so far this just looks like a continuation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  9:32:04 AM
3 point gap up open on the COMPX to 1385, TRINQ 1.66, TICK.NQ +77, QQV +.3.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  9:29:47 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The TNX just about filled its gap, reacing 3.935, with a gap top of 3.936, and then pulled back. It has bounced and is making another attempt now. This is another indicator that conservative traders can watch as far as lowering the stop. A move above 3.945 would be above the last failed rebound yesterday afternoon and could be used as a stop on the short position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/9/03,  9:28:57 AM
09:00 Update has been e-mailed, but my content server is currently offline and will be delayed.

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  9:26:48 AM
I totally agree with Jonathan's last post. It's something I've repeated many times. Whatever happens - pick a story to match.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  9:24:27 AM
"The news just seems to follow the markets," said Raymond James chief investment strategist Jeff Saut.

It looks like Joe Granville's belief about news is shared by others.

Link

 
 
  Steven Price   4/9/03,  9:21:38 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We are short a 1/4 position and it looks like the news event risk is in full bloom. While futures have moved higher on the possible end to the war, yields are still down, although working on filling their gap. Conservative traders can close out on the open in case this rally really gets some legs, which it could. I'll leave my stop on the small position at 8415 for now. I just don't think the futures are rallying that strongly, even though they have come well off the lows and if this is all we are getting, then the overnight bearish activity could resume.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  9:12:44 AM
European markets have also been cheered by the sight of coalition troops in central Baghdad, with Iraqi citizens coming down to gather peacefully in the square. Most European bourses have recovered and now trade in the green, with the FTSE 100 now up 13.40 points or .35% to 3882.20, the CAC 40 now up 13.41 points or .46% to 2906.92, and the DAX now up 25.12 points or .91% to 2792.91. This is despite the dour predictions by the U.K.'s Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, being made in today's budget speech.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  9:07:12 AM
A flash of green, with QQQ currently trading 26.13, ND futures +2.50 and ES +4.00.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  9:00:10 AM
There is continued talk of the fed's "emergency" plan. It has been reported in various newspapers. Link

Whether this is true or not, or whether it's mere central banker jawboning such as we see from the BOJ seemingly every night, is secondary. I expect to see bond prices remain firm (yields weak), and while I'd like to think that gold will continue to find support, a cynical part of me wouldn't be surprised if Al Green covered his tracks by dumping gold as well. I remain committed to my precious metals mutual funds, but remain on alert.

QQQ is trading higher, now 26.03. FVX -2.2 bps, TNX -1.9, TYX -1.7.

I'm expecting to see the COMPX fade, but will try to be patient for a confirming break below 1375. In the meantime, bounces to resistance are more than possible.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  9:00:02 AM
CNBC is showing U.S. troops and tanks moving into Tahriya Square in the center of Baghdad, so far without resistance. Although still negative as of this writing, futures have ticked up a bit, perhaps as a result of their unimpeded move into central Baghdad.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/9/03,  8:46:15 AM
The US Dollar Index is trading the 100.30 level, with gold trying to gain 323/oz. Bonds are being bought, FVX -4.5 bps, TNX -3.8 bps, TYX -2.9. QQQ is trading 25.92, ND3M futures -5.50, ES3M -4.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/9/03,  7:31:59 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened down 51.89 points to 8079.52 in Wednesday's trading, but had climbed off its lows by the midday break, being down only about 22 points by that break. That climb occurred after a Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey revealed plans by Japanese companies to cut capital spending by 2.2% for 2003, a cut that was less than last year's 4.5% decline and 2001's 9.9% decline. Manufacturers may increase spending by 0.4%. However, a later government number revealed that Japanese machinery orders fell 9.6%, and the Nikkei turned down again, closing down 73.80 points or 0.9%, at 8057.61. The Bank of Japan also announced today that its bias was unchanged, with signs of improvement offset by uncertainty due to war-related issues.

Across Asia, market pundits at least partially attributed the markets' losses to tumbling chip stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, and Tokyo Electron lost 2-4%. Airlines also suffered, with Goldman Sachs cutting the forecast for Singapore Airlines, Australia's Qantas announcing a cut of 1,000 jobs, and Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways building on Tuesday's losses.

European airlines also led the European markets down. Deutsche Lufthansa said that the war with Iraq and concerns over SARS would cause its losses to be "unexpectedly high" in the first quarter. Competitors Air France, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, and British Airways also fell. In addition, cuts in credit ratings on some insurers led that sector down, with Aegon NV, Aviva, Swiss Life, and ING numbered among the insurers whose ratings were reduced. In the U.K. today, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown noted in his budget speech that he would probably again reduce his forecast for economic growth, this time to around 2% from November's lowered 3% projection. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 24.80 points or .64% to 3844, the CAC 40 was down 26.43 points or .91% to 2867.08, and the DAX was down 23.16 points or .84% to 2744.63.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/8/03,  10:44:59 PM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Vlada Raicevic   4/8/03,  10:44:45 PM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   4/8/03,  10:44:29 PM
The Swing Trade Game Plan has been posted: Link

 
 
  Steven Price   4/8/03,  10:43:40 PM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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