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  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  7:10:05 PM
Last 2 Week's Matrix + Next Week's Link

Note: The "arrows" just above the WEEKLY S2 and R2 are based off the SPX (the market) and what direction the S2 and R2 were at as it relates to the prior week.

Now... here are the PRIOR three weeks (to the above) WEEKLY Matrix. Link See the "pinch" for 03/31 - 04/04? Early in that week, the SPX continued lower (SPY traded 84.40, which was $0.32 below WEEKLY S2) then rebounded strong on Tuesday, gapped higher on Wednesday, and traded somewhat sideways Thursday and Friday)

This has me alert for "follow through higher" on Monday, then perhaps a reversal back down, with "full range" of this WEEK's more NARROW range.

Kind of interesting isn't it? Starting with 3/17-3/21 say..... "spread , up, pinch...spread, up, pinch."

from 3/17-3/21 the SPX did this on a WEEKLY basis... up, down, up, down, up, ..... down?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  5:59:02 PM
DAILY/WEEKLY/Monthly Pivot analysis matrix. Link

Note: New WEEKLY levels as this week's trade completed. Markets are closed on Friday.

I'm marking WEEKLY S1 as WEEKLY support, and WEEKLY R1 as WEEKLY Resistance.

In "pink" I've made note of April's QQQ high of $27.38 in the QQQ, and this level shows up in the WEEKLY R1 of $27.37. Somebody sold at $27.38 earlier this month.

We get some DAILY R1 and MONTHLY R1 correlation for OEX and NDX and these are near-term levels of resistance on Monday.

A lot of correlative resistance shows up in WEEKLY R1 and Monday's DAILY R2. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, Monday of next week tends to be BULLISH.

Support looks to be building in the BIX.X on Monday. I've "dashed green" near-term support at the DAILY and WEEKLY pivots (traded either side today) and firm support in DAILY S1, WEEKLY S1 and MONTHLY R1. I haven't gotten today's "bank sector bullish %" (BPBANK) from Dorsey/Wright & Associates yet, but as of yesterday, was 62.91% and still "bear correction" and needs a reading of 64% to reache "bull confirmed."

Important notes that trader's might want to observe is that the WEEKLY S2-R2 ranges are really narrow this week, compared to other weeks. I will show the recent 2-weeks WEEKLY pivot analysis matrix, with next weeks matrix just above this posting.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  5:15:56 PM
Electronic Data Systems (EDS) $17.87 Link ... trades down at $17.35 over New York ECN after company delays Q1 earnings report to May 7 from April 23. The company said it was delaying earnings release in order to give its new management team additional time before comminicating with market participants.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  4:38:12 PM
Xilinx (XLNX) $26.06 +2.07% ... stock trades $26.50 in after-hours after reporting Q4 (March) EPS of $0.14, which was a penny better than consensus. Revenues rose 11.7% year-over-year to $305.5 million, which was above the $292.0 consensus. Company said it sees revenues expected up 1%-5% from Q4, which would be approximately $308-$321 million, which would be above current consensus of $302.5 million. XLNX said gross margins expect to be approximately 60%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  4:00:30 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 332.22 +4.34% ... looks to challenge the March 21 relative high close of 336.10 on Monday. Component Xilinx (XLNX) $26.05 +1.99% reports earnings after the bell. Estimates are for EPS of $0.13. Potential "bullish triangle" pattern on trade at $27.00. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  3:58:42 PM
Happy holidays, all!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  3:57:59 PM
Have a great weekend, everyone. Get away and forget about the stock market. Come back with a fresh outlook. As I mentioned this morning, I'll be vacationing a couple of days with my family, so I can guarantee that a great directional movement will begin while I'm gone! See you Wednesday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  3:53:35 PM
Opex theory would have me betting on a close near the high of the day for QQQ. While they're killing the April 27 calls, why not take out the 27 puts as well?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  3:46:33 PM
Unlike the SOX, the Dow Jones Transports has maintained its move over its exponential 200-dma. A more important comparison, however, is the comparison to the $TRAN's sister index, the Dow Jones Industrial Index. As yet, there's been no confirming approach, much less move over, its 200-ema, now located at 8533.44. According to Dow Theory, we should see that confirmation soon or else we're looking at divergence. The relative low of the VIX, according to its traditional maximum 30-32% deviation from its 200-dma, suggests that the divergence might be settled by a move down in the indices. Jeff's bullish percent numbers and the 5(3)3 daily stochs suggest that we should withhold judgment just yet. Other oscillators are inconclusive, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  3:38:17 PM
QQQ is stuck between a rock and a hard place, between intraday support at 26.75 and resistance at 27. Both are levels that go back several weeks, and whether it was opex forces or good old fashioned demand that brought the Qubes to this level, it doesn't appear that there's much room for movement for the rest of the session (famous last words). There little guidance from the indicators, and the oscillators are also unchanged- very toppy intraday, and getting there on the dailies.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  3:33:01 PM
The SOX still challenges its exponential 200-dma just overhead at 333.26. Although it has not been able to stay above that MA today, it's possible it could bump over it by today's close. As I mentioned earlier, it has sometimes challenged that MA for several days before falling away, so we may need several closes over the MA before we can trust the movement or a firm move down from it before we trust that movement, either. Oscillators all turn up, although the MACD barely does so and the 5(3)3 stochastics are already approaching levels showing overbought conditions. The 21(3)3 stochs still have room to run. There may be the slightest blip up in OBV today, but I have to squint to imagine I'm seeing it there. I've been puzzled by the SOX's behavior lately when OBV has not shown the slightest upturn. That makes the move up seem somewhat suspect, despite the evidence of other oscillators.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  3:28:07 PM
Good for a laugh: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  3:10:00 PM
It's sloppy, but the 26.77 area could be the neckline of a head and shoulders topping formation intraday. This would make sense, but of couse, we need a plunge back down to confirm it. The 60 min 10(5) stoch is trying for that cross, and the 30 min 10(5) has begun its downphase, but so far the action as been very shallow.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  3:03:08 PM
Up volume is currently 4.6 times down volume on the NYSE and 3.4 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios are 2.56 for NYSE-traded issues and 1.77 for Nasdaq-traded issues. NYSE volume is just over 1 billion and Nasdaq volume is 1.2 billion. That's better volume than I expected for the day before a three-day weekend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  2:49:37 PM
QQQ $26.79 +2.17% .... just looked at April expiration and largest open interest at yesterday's close was the April $27 calls. Today's high of $26.98 interesting and there may have been a bull that wrote the $27 trying to make sure QQQ doesn't close above that market and call the stock away?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  2:48:19 PM
Oh, those are mine, Jim, pls try to keep it on the q-t :)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  2:46:22 PM
Not One single buy/sell program premium alert today, except for on buy program right at the open.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  2:46:10 PM
I'm guessing that some of that 10B is coming back out of the market, destined for Al Green's pocket rocket.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  2:44:49 PM
Option Expiration may start to see some "wild" trade as we approach the close. Dow looks to "peg" the 8,300 level, and QQQ starting to get active $26.77 with a sudden move off its highs of $26.98 and trading $26.76 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  2:44:09 PM
We're still quite early in the move, but it feels huge already as QQQ dumps a whole 17 cents or so in a few minutes. QQV is edging up, now down .63 on the day at 30.56. I wish bonds were still trading so I could watch the yield for signs of weakness. TRINQ is up to .53, while the p/c ratio (total) has printed .56 for the past half hour. This should be a fascinating close to this opex week over the next hour and a half.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  2:41:42 PM
Nearby possible support for the OEX lies at the 60-minute 21-pma at 450.26. Below that, the new, more-gently-sloping ascending trendline off the OEX March 12 low (mentioned in my 13:57 post) currently crosses at 447.61, just above the 60-minute 50-pma at 446.33.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  2:39:23 PM
NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 1,422. +1.9% ... Back near its April and March highs. Trade at 1,450 would be further bullish Link

Here too, the VERY broad NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) has been edging up day by day Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  2:34:54 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 5,000 +1.37% ... This morning's trade at 4,940 looks to be reversed back up on Monday, if NYA.X can trade the 5,000 level.Link

The VERY broad NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYSE) has been edging up day by day and still has some room to the January high readings near 52%.Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  2:31:35 PM
Surprisingly, the OEX move up today hasn't affected the daily 5(3)3 stochastics in a positive way. The fast line hooks down just under 80, although the slow line still rises and there hasn't yet been a bearish kiss. The 21(3)3's are difficult to decipher, with a slight upward cast at 70.04. The shorter-term can turn back up, and the 21(3)3 can turn back up more decisively, of course.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  2:28:43 PM
It's really sloppy, but I could be looking at reverse head and shoulders formation on the 30 min candles starting 1 week ago Monday. If that's what it is, we're at the neckline now. A reverse h&s is only supposed to be reliable in uptrends, but it's worth watching. If that's what I'm seeing, it projects to around 28.70 QQQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  2:22:30 PM
Bond market closed with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) finishing out at 3.957%.

This week's trade will have WEEKLY S2 rising to 3.828% (from 3.790%) and WEEKLY R2 lowered to 4.102% (from 4.176%), with next WEEK's Pivot at 3.965%.

Today's 3.957% YIELD close was just above the 50% retracement of CONVENTIONAL retracement from October lows to December highs of 3.954%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  2:12:22 PM
I should add that the daily candles show the 10(5) stoch in a full bull run, and could bury the 60 minute 10(5) in overbought just as the 60 has buried the 30 minute in overbought.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  2:09:55 PM
QQV is now back above 30. The 10 hour cycle measured by the 10(5)stochatics is getting ready to roll from overbought, but as always, we want to wait for a clean signal. The 5 hour cycle as measured on the 30 minute candles has been peaking and waiting for some lower prices to get in gear, but this has yet to occur.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  2:09:13 PM
At 24.96, the VIX again dips into that 24.33-25.04 zone that represents a 30-32% deviation from its simple 200-dma. This time, it hasn't bounced. At least, so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  2:06:29 PM
Notable 52-week highs BCGI $18.32 +21.3%, CHINA $4.85 +8.7%, SSYS $17.64 +7.29, INVX $9.39 +6.7%, IRS $9.75 +4.38%, BHS $14.68 +4%, USNA $26.28 +4.5%, MVL $15.68 +3.49%, EVG +3.12%, GGG $31.32 +9%, BER $44.64 +3.69%, KNSY $21.40 +5%, EFFI $20.19 +7.7%, FLO $29.28 +2.7%, FBC $29.92 +2.5%, TSCM $4.10 +3.79%, PCAR $57.45 +1.93%, APPB $28.76 +2.3%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  1:57:05 PM
Over the last week, I've been flipping charts vertically and studying them that way; printing up fresh, unmarked charts and going back to pencil and ruler to mark them; and doing anything else I can imagine to gain a fresh outlook. I've been talking about the violated OEX trendline formed as the OEX moved off the March 12 low. This morning, we finally had enough points that I could draw a new, still-steep-but-slightly-more-sustainable trendline on the OEX daily chart. Then I noticed that I could also draw a top trendline. Voila! I had a rising bearish wedge. (I swear I look for possible bullish configurations, too.) I moved the chart over so that you could see that the apex would peak near 470. Link That peak would come at just about the same level as the long-term descending trendline on my (log) OEX weekly chart. As we saw this morning on the five-minute charts, bearish rising wedges can be broken to the upside as well as the downside, but at least it gives me a scenario to watch unfold. The coincidence of that 470 resistance from two sources perhaps lends it some validity. If the wedge does have validity, it should break up or down about 2/3 of the way into the wedge, which should be within the next few days.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  1:56:31 PM
With the bond market closed and 10B in repo expiries due to Al Green today, I'm wondering where it's going to come from? Either it was yanked out of bonds, or there's going to be a big offer on the equity side coming right up. Well, I can dream, can't I?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  1:51:48 PM
Not as big a buy signal as the (un)employment report. Perhaps the market expects all of those unemployed workers to cash their UE checks for CSCO and INTC shares?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  1:47:43 PM
The ascending trendline on QQQ has at last been busted.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  1:36:11 PM
QQV is in uncharted territory now, breaking below the April 2002 lows, currently 29.95.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  1:33:32 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/17/03,  1:27:40 PM
LXK While it has been encouraging to see the bulls flex their muscles again today, especially in the Tech arena, it looks like too little, too late for our LXKI play. We initiated coverage at $69.02, and the stock is just now resting at $69.03, definitely stalled just below resistance. Unfortunately, the company is set to release earnings Monday morning before the opening bell. We'll be dropping the play this weekend to avoid the risk of holding over earnings.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  1:26:33 PM
Another fresh high as the COMPX takes aim at its April 7th high. TRINQ is still moderate at .49, QQV now down 1.24 at 29.95, TICK.NQ +201.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  1:22:03 PM
Volume is actually decent today, as volume goes lately, anyway. Volume totals 751 million shares traded on the NYSE and 909 million on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec and up/down ratios all show increasing strength.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  1:11:12 PM
So that's how these guys got their grey hairs! I was wondering :)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  1:07:17 PM
Hey Linda, that drawl is pretty popular up here in Canuckistan, eh?!

The put to call ratio is down to .58 for the past half hour, and it's heartening to see that Mr. Bull still has more money to spend on calls. QQV is down to 30.09- that has to be an alltime low for the young index. TRINQ .49, still not in extreme territory. They're still selling bonds, FVX at +3.8 bps for the day. The lack of pullback is the most bullish thing I see so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  1:00:27 PM
The FTSE 100 closed up 34.30 or .89%, at 3889.20, and the CAC closed up 3.45 points or .12%, at 2898.61. Moments ahead of its closing, the DAX trades up 65.99 points or 2.34%, at 2890.67.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  12:55:17 PM
QQQ is finding support right on the ascending trendline from this upleg, showing lttle sign of crapping out yet. FVX up 3.8 bps now, confirming strength.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  12:41:07 PM
Rising bearish wedges moving up into resistance usually break to the downside, but the OEX five-minute chart shows that the action over the last 30 minutes saw such a rising bearish wedge broken to the upside when the OEX moved above the 449.50 level. The OEX may be coming down to test the top of that violated wedge again. If it falls through it and heads down, I'm going to sign up as a full member of the "conspiracy theory" club.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  12:39:52 PM
This has been one exhausting market lately.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  12:32:44 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,295 +0.46% ... best levels of the session and reclaims WEEKLY pivot.

DAILY Pivot of 8,312 is intra-day resistance, and after seeing what QQQ did on move back above its DAILY pivot, things could get "wild" with a Dow 5-minute close above its DAILY pivot of 8,312.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  12:31:49 PM
The SOX now sits underneath its exponential 200-dma at 333.26. It last challenged this MA March 20 and 21 before falling away on the 24th, and before that challenged it on November 27-December 2. Those previous periods should be familiar dates as they marked recent market tops. The SOX usually sits around that MA for two or three trading sessions before making a definitive move. One day, the SOX will make that definitive move above this MA. The 21(3)3 stochastics, at least, predict that the SOX has enough strength left to attempt a try now, but traders should be aware this is a key moment for the SOX, the COMPX, and perhaps the broader markets, and that the outcome could go either direction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  12:31:16 PM
Wow! FVX is now up 2.7 bps, QQV -.7 at 30.49, TICK.NQ +186, TRINQ .51. The put to call ratio has been in the low .60s all day. We pushed to yesterday's spike high and have pulled back the slightest bit, QQQ now 26.77.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  12:29:02 PM
QLogic (QLGC) $41.38 +3.7% ... getting upside alert here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  12:26:29 PM
Philadelphia Fed was released at 12:00 and came in at -8.8 versus the -8.0 consensus.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  12:20:22 PM
The US Dollar Index is showing no strength, FVX is edging up, now +1.1 bps, and my other indicators are saying very little. The unemployment data hasn't carried any weight at all so far, but we've seen ample proof for the "news is noise" thesis all year, consistently. With the USD index onside, I'm sceptical of any rally, but I've voted with my pocketbook, so now it's time to watch.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  12:18:02 PM
A reader again asks for a prediction of the OEX range over the next month. Here's an update of a weekly (log, not linear) chart of the OEX, showing the way the OEX has been nudging up under the descending line of its wedge the last two weeks. So far, those upper shadows predict trouble pushing above the wedge, and I'm not even sure I'd trust an upside move this afternoon, built on such light volume on the last trading day of opex week. Link I had hoped to see the OEX break out of this pattern before the end of this month, but it hasn't yet done so yet, although it looks close now. Until we see a definitive break, we can't be sure of the final direction of the break. In fact, we can't be sure of a break. Prices may trickle through the apex of the wedge. Once outside the wedge, the OEX still remains within that 385-487 rectangular consolidation pattern, and without a definitive break out of the wedge, that's the best I can do at predicting a range for the OEX over the next month.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  12:14:41 PM
QQQ $26.71 +1.9% ... right back at its WEEKLY R1 and this is impressive move from the Q's. We're now seeing the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.927% now at unchanged levels perhaps taking notice from equities. This action could provide further upside should it continue as it looks like bulls and bears starting to really pick up their buying in stocks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  12:07:14 PM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 2.890% ... right at unchanged level here and this is rather interesting action and may lead to further bullishness in equities.

Rather "bullish" for stocks to see the selling come first from the shorter-dated 5-year.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  12:05:51 PM
OEX is currently challenging the 60-minute 21-pma at 449.44, with the 38.2% retracement of the Oct/Dec move just above that, at 449.69.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  12:04:14 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 279.78 +0.54% ... held "tough" this morning at MONTHLY R1 and WEEKLY 38.2% retracement of 277.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  12:02:38 PM
VIX.X 25.24 -3.25%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  11:48:28 AM
11:00 Update Posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  11:48:19 AM
The chart formation looks like a bear flag to me, but it's showing no sign of breakdown yet. FVX is still negative but approaching its high of the day, which would be flat-unchanged. HUI and XAU are adding to their gains, and QQV has moved up to unchanged, but that looks like bad data to me. TRINQ at .55 is low but could fall a lot further if a wave of buying comes in here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  11:34:36 AM
The FVX hasn't jumped here, and while there are no sell signals yet, I just got filled for 5 more of my June puts here- another 1/8 position. Not a recommendation, just a disclosure.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  11:26:18 AM
Interesting. The VIX just moved to a low of 25.01 before bouncing back to its current 25.43, dipping momentarily into that 24.33-25.04 zone that represents a 30-32% deviation from its simple 200-dma. This is the percentage Mark calculated as the maximum deviation from this MA over the last few years. This day is far from over, but still that action is interesting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  11:22:31 AM
Total volume is 414 million shares on the NYSE and 498 million on the Nasdaq. Volume patterns remain strong, with adv/dec ratios of 1.74 on the NYSE-traded issues and 1.63 on the Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is 1.6 times down volume on the NYSE and 1.9 times down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  11:21:20 AM
HUI and XAU are having good days today, +1.36 at 128.55 and +.55 at 67.73 respectively. The US Dollar Index continues to hover in the 99.08 range. The COMPX oscillators still indicate an upphase, as does the chart pattern, but this bear flag shouldn't last forever and resistance is still in the 1415 COMPX zone. 1409-12 are near resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  11:12:33 AM
QQQ $26.51 +1% ... stopped!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  11:10:35 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.925% ... off its YIELD low of 3.901% and at late morning high (not good for my QQQ short).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  11:07:35 AM
As the OEX chugs back up toward its resistance zone, the 60-minute 21(3)3 stochastics have now made a bullish kiss in mid-fall while the 5(3)3's are in full bullish mode. Mixed messages again with an apparent "buy" signal given just under resistance. I would be leery of jumping into an entry based on stochastics evidence alone on the last trading day of opex week on a low-volume day preceding a holiday. In the best of trading circumstances--which this is not--I've found that seemingly great technical entries--which this is not--do not perform as expected during opex week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  10:59:46 AM
With the VIX dropping toward the day's low, we may get another opportunity to test Mark's calculations of the VIX maximum 30-32% deviation from its simple 200-dma. With that MA at 35.776 today, the 30-32% range would be from 25.04 down to 24.33. As Mark mentioned in his article last night, the VIX nailed the top of that range yesterday before climbing higher. The VIX currently measures 25.52.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  10:59:33 AM
Whole lotta nothing going on. The TRINQ is back to bullish neutral at .86, adn the COMPX is parked at 1402, QQQ 26.39-.42. QQV is back down, -.70 to 30.49, VXN -.52 to 36.53. FVX is down 1 bp despite the massive repo drain sparked by Al Green today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  10:53:36 AM
QQQ here's my intra-day chart of QQQ (5-minute intervals) with DAILY pivot retracement (gold/brown). Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  10:42:38 AM
QQQ $26.39 -0.61% ... taking a day trade short here, stop $26.51 target $25.96

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  10:29:39 AM
My observations about the OEX intraday charts are similar to Jonathan's in his 10:21 post, although the stochastics settings I use are a little different. On the OEX 60-minute chart, the 5(3)3 has already turned up, from a fully oversold setting, while the 21(3)3's are still moving down with perhaps the slightest hint of flattening if I study them closely. RSI has cupped upward again. The OEX has remained above an ascending trendline of higher lows begun on March 31, although it's below the longer-term ascending trendline off the March 12 low. The OEX soon faces layers of overhead resistance and currently trades in a zone of some congestion over the last few days. There's no clear trade setup here, based on the hourly chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  10:23:33 AM
VIX.X 25.53 -2.14% ... moves below our 61.8% retracement (see 04/15 Wrap Link )

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  10:21:37 AM
All of the intraday 10(5) stochastics are in gear to the upside here, with the 60 minute- 10 hour cycle reversing back up early. This looks like a bullish sign to me, but doesn't feel quite right, given the massive resistance not far overhead. A bounce from oversold territory would have packed more punch, as it would have been combined with short covering. I expect that to trigger shorts covering on a move from here, it will take a big push to reach their stops. We'll see.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  10:11:38 AM
The Dow Jones Transportation Index has been clinging to its 200-ema since first closing above it on Tuesday. Yesterday's close was only 3 points above that moving average. Currently at 2309.87, the index appears to be finding precarious support again today at its current 2297.04 200-ema. As I mentioned earlier in the week, the TRAN was among the first of the indices to test its 200-ema in January and the first to fall away after challenging it for six trading days, so it could be important to watch its behavior around that MA, as well as watching whether the Dow Jones Industrials can confirm by climbing above its 200-ema. I'm not stating that January's behavior will be repeated, but only watching in case it is.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  10:11:10 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $20.06 +12.7% ... reported Q1 earnings of $0.33 last night, which was well above the $0.18 consensus. Revenues rose 88.4% year-over-year to $174.5, which was above consensus for $150 million.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  10:07:21 AM
Al Green just added 3.75B via 4 day repo, letting 13.75B expire for a net drain of 10B. The 28 day repo of 4B is a wash against the expiry of last month's 28 day repo.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  10:05:22 AM
The put to call ratio has opened at .65, at the low end of neutral.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  10:00:43 AM
Volume patterns are positive so far, but volume is far too thin to make predictions about market direction based on those patterns as yet, and early volume patterns can be deceptive anyway.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  9:57:37 AM
VIX.X 25.97 -0.45%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  9:54:52 AM
The COMXP is printing new lows, but not close to challenging 1390-2 support yet. The TRINQ is at a mellow 1.42, QQV +.81 at 32, and the FVX is down 2.8 bps currently. Some well-justified, and in my opinion, long overdue fear is beginning to suggest itself.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  9:50:51 AM
Philadelphia Fed ... April report due ut at approx. 12:00 PM EST.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  9:46:35 AM
At 317.92 as I type, the SOX is down a minimal .48. Daily oscillators show the same mixed evidence they've been showing, with 5(3)3 and 21(3)3 stochs both pointed up, RSI appearing to flatten near 60, MACD flat at the midline, and OBV still crawling along the floor it established earlier in the year. 5(3)3 stochs are near levels indicating overbought conditions, but the 21(3)3's are nowhere near those levels. Perhaps this mixed evidence is to be expected, however, as the SOX still trades in the wedge established late last year. That wedge shape indicates indecision as yet: so do the oscillators. In that respect, they match. The usual behavior when oscillators are this mixed is choppy trading. That wedge is narrowing to its apex, however, so we should soon know whether the SOX will break out to one direction or the other, or whether prices will trickle out the apex, disappointing those of us hoping for a firm break. Since I'll be gone Monday and Tuesday on vacation with my family, my guess is that the definitive break will occur then!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  9:36:44 AM
The OEX opened above a grouping of moving averages: the 60-minute 50-pma at 445.92, simple 200-dma at 445.09, and simple 21-dma at 444.03. It opens below the 60-minute 21-pma, now located at 449.12, just below the 38.2 retracement of the October-to-December move and the historical S/R between 449-450. So far, then, the OEX is trapped between what should be strong support and strong resistance. Let's see what happens.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  9:32:46 AM
3 point gap up to 1397 COMPX, TRINQ 1.77, QQV +.65 to 31.84.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/17/03,  9:19:47 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  8:41:39 AM
Yields are in the red and gold has jumped above 326 on the abysmal employment data. FVX is now down 2.6 bps, TNX -2.7 bps, and TYX -3.6 bps. QQQ is trading 26.26.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  8:36:12 AM
The 4 week moving average for jobless claims has just come out, +3,500 to 424,700 and reaching an 11 month high, dragging the futures slightly lower. Claims for the week are up 30,000 to 442,000.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/17/03,  8:27:09 AM
The US Dollar Index started its move around 1:30AM, and has rallied impressively, all the way to the 99.10 area. QQQ is trading 26.34, with ES futures +2.75, ND futures +4.50, and YM 8244. Spot gold is down .60 to 325.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/17/03,  7:58:37 AM
Good morning. Shaken by AMD's report of slumping chip sales and perhaps affected by the behavior of U.S. markets yesterday, the Nikkei opened down 51.87 points to 7827.62 in Thursday's trading. In the kind of back-and-forth action that's become expected of late, the same computer-related sectors that led gains earlier in the week led declines today. After Motorola announced reduced expectations for industy-wide mobile-telephone sales, other cell-phone makers dropped. Gyrating around 7825 all day, the Nikkei closed down 57.59 points or 0.7%, at 7821.90.

Helped by factories opened by foreign manufacturers, China's GDP grew 9.9% from a year ago, reported the National Bureau of Statistics. Samsung and Volkswagen are two companies taking advantage of China's cheap and abundant labor. Some suggest that the level of growth may not be sustainable and that China's economy might be heating up too fast. They also worry that SARS will take its toll on China's economy.

European markets started out negative, but the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX all bounced hard beginning about an hour after they opened. I haven't been able to confirm a reason for the bounce yet, but Bloomberg credits Nokia's rise after its earnings report for pacing the ascent in European markets. Phone stocks accounted for a hefty 20% of the rise in the Stoxx 600. Currently the FTSE 100 is up 42 points or 1.09%, to 3896.90. The FTSE briefly traded above 3900, but couldn't maintain that level. It is still well above the day's low of 3826.10, however. After a brief stint above 2900, the CAC 40 is up 2.75 points or 0.09% to 2897.91. The CAC 40 trades up from the day's low of 2851.75. Both the FTSE and the CAC appear to have just made a second, so-far failed attempt at their day's highs, but the DAX succeeded in moving above a high made at the same time as the FTSE and CAC highs were made. The DAX currently trades up 53.15 points or 1.88%, to 2877.83.

Vivendi wasn't one of the gainers in European trading, however. Apple Computer CEO Steven Jobs denied that he had made a bid for the company.

I'm taking vacation Monday and Tuesday, and look forward to being back on Wednesday. I presume that my absence will be a sure-fire guarantee that there will be great plays to be had on those two days, so enjoy! Alan on the Futures Monitor often covers issues related to the global markets, so Market Monitor readers wanting updates on other markets while I'm gone might click over to the Futures Monitor.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/17/03,  6:37:41 AM
The Market Monitor Server will be rebooted in 5 minutes. To continue to receive updates you will need to re-connect your desktop program.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/16/03,  12:34:45 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Vlada Raicevic   4/16/03,  12:34:28 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/16/03,  12:33:46 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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