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  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  4:29:32 PM
Capital One (COF) $37.29 -0.34% ... Link stock jumps to $38.70 over New York ECNs after reporting Q1 EPS of $1.35 per share, which was $0.32 better than consensus of $1.03. COF said "The charge-off rate came in at the low end of their indicated range in the first quarter of 2003," adding "We expect somewhat lower charge-offs in the second quarter and lower still in the second half of the year, ending the year in the low 6% range." The company said it was "pleased" to see a peak in the charge-off rate and is confident it will now achieve its earnings target of at least $4.55 for the year, which would be above consensus of $4.49.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   4/21/03,  4:01:25 PM
Spreads/Combos - Portfolio Activity Today's session offered a number of favorable entry opportunities for bullish traders including the new spreads in Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) and P.F. Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ:PFCB). Among the synthetic positions, the speculative play in Documentum (NASDAQ:DCTM) was "right on the mark" with the company's shares up more than 10% after the business software maker was upgraded by two analyst firms citing the company's strong quarterly earnings. Unfortunately, the optimistic comments came before the open, thus the target entry price in the position was not available. Debits spreads in Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) and SLM Corporation (NYSE:SLM) also offered viable entry opportunities during the session.
Among the bearish positions, International Game Technology (NYSE:IGT) was a surprise mover, climbing over $2 to $81.56 in anticipation of the company's second quarter earnings release, due Tuesday, Apr 22, 2003, at 9:00. The report will certainly determine the direction of IGT shares in the near-term and we will be monitoring the issue closely in the coming week. Stryker (NYSE:SYK) also enjoyed upside activity during the morning session, providing an excellent position credit in the process, but the issue pulled-back just as expected in afternoon trading.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  3:58:42 PM
The NYSE is going out with about 1.3 billion shares with up volume 7:6 over down. The Nasdaq has traded 1.1 billion with up volume 5.8:5.3 over down. Pretty much a dead heat. We are within a handful of points of the flat line. Let's call this day off and pretend it never happened.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  3:58:32 PM
The VXN and VIX have just printed lows here, QQV still up .60.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  3:48:20 PM
The pivots tonight are going to be right on top of each other. The odds for a S2/R2 breakout tomorrow are almost 100%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  3:46:37 PM
S&P 500 Index Chart I see that Kent Barton wrote today's 03:15 Update. Here is an SPX chart I had made for that update, with discussion around Friday's comments of looking for a test of WEEKLY R1 early this week. SPX trading 891 here and I would think bulls need a close above the 893 level to get a test of WEEKY R1 tomorrow.Link

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/21/03,  3:44:47 PM
Don't look now, but JP Morgan (JPM) has quietly rebounded more than 36% from its March lows. The stock is now approaching resistance at $28.00. Shares of fellow money-center giant Citigroup (C) are also trading near long-term highs.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  3:42:22 PM
-corrected chart link-

I know a lot of traders are following MMM, especially now that earnings are out. Checking the Point-and-figure chart one can see that shares have pulled back but have not quite touched its rising bullish support trendline. Overall, the trend is still bullish on the PnF chart while the daily chart leaves a lot to be desired. This is merely an observation and I'm neither bearish or bullish on the stock right this moment. See that Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  3:36:06 PM
All that today appears to have accomplished is to ease the shorter term 10(5) stochastics out of overbought. While the longer cycles, from weekly on down, are nearing the upper ends of their ranges, there's no sign of a bearish cross just yet. Where this takes price from here is anyone's guess, but it tells me that price is closer to the top of its channels in the different timeframes than to the bottom.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  3:31:17 PM
Despite this little bit of weakness the VIX is still trading under 25 and showing no signs of rising. Still no fear in the market and traders are slowly lining up on the same side of the boat

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  3:28:59 PM
Another .63 reading for the total put to call ratio, based on an equity pcr of .52 and an index pcr of 1.36.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  3:28:49 PM
Volume is picking up as those traders who waited all day for a better price to square their option assignment stock are deciding to take what they can get and go flat again. It should be a fight into the close but both sides appear to be evenly matched.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/21/03,  3:19:15 PM
The 3:15 update has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  3:16:56 PM
NAZ 1424.91 on that last bounce. Fear of the fence? Obviously sellers are waiting for any rally to appear.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  3:14:39 PM
Nice little bounce here but the NAZ is approaching that electric fence again at 1425.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  3:12:53 PM
Remember, the Monday after an expiration is typically flat. Today definitely qualifies as boring and flat. The reasoning is that most options positions that were exercised have to be unwound today and trades have to clear before new trades can be instituted. If you woke up to day and found a couple thousand shares in your account of some stock you wrote puts on then the resulting cash drain can keep you from buying something until you sell those put shares. Same with calls you might have exercised. It always amazes me that people exercise their calls and then sell the stock instead of just selling the calls on Friday but it happens. On Monday they sell the stock to clear the trade. That also ties up cash until the stock goes away. Some of this is due to lack of attention by traders who do not monitor positions. Expiration Monday's are a real surprise to some.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  3:05:06 PM
I agree, Vlada- this is turning into an exhausting session. "Session"'s the right word.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  2:49:04 PM
Can you believe it? The Nasdaq is now becoming the strongest index for the day with a better afternoon chart than the Dow/S&P. Will wonders never cease? Still struggling with 1425.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  2:48:17 PM
Today's upper descending trendline on the 3 minute chart got decisively violated just now on this bounce off the lows. After the no-holds-barred buying frenzy of Thursday's rally, we're now counting pennies to the downside. It seems clear to me that bears can expect to be frustrated from here- whatever the reason or cause, downside is not happening today. The only question remaining for me is whether there are actually any buyers left, other than Toshihiko Fukui and his homie, Al Green. Like Jim and Vlada, the indicators are of little help, so let's watch the s/r zones. 1430 COMPX / 27.10 QQQ seem to be the lines in the sand on this move.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  2:42:39 PM
Coming across one of the "news" services we monitor is a note that Morgan Stanley's U.S. Strategist, Steve Galbraith, is "optimistic" about stocks. He is recommending that clients add to their portfolio with big-cap growth stocks. Whether you are bullish or bearish, I think the guy's "advice" would have more credence if A) the markets were able to actually make a new relative high (they can't) and B) the VIX wasn't so low. Galbraith did note that gross margins for the S&P 500 appear to be improving for the first time in two years.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  2:41:52 PM
I had several emails asking when EBAY would announce earnings. It is after the bell on Tuesday. Even though I suspect EBAY will announce a split I would be concerned about holding over the earnings. It is just not a good practice and the huge gains in the stock before earnings sets up the potential for a sell the news event. Beware.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  2:32:41 PM
The A/D line has slipped to only +200 issues from a high of +1153. This is still up from the low of -540 after that bout of selling this morning. Still it appears we are getting slowly weaker as we near the 3:PM turn. The rebounds are weaker and the volume continues to wane.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  2:26:02 PM
The FVX is down at its lows of the day, confirming the weakness we're seeing in equities. Currently up 2.3 bps on the day.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  2:25:52 PM
That bullish wedge broke to the downside and has now broken the horizontal resistance at 8320. 8300 is next to be tested. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  2:14:12 PM
That bullish wedge is easily seen on the SPX and the danger of a breakdown. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  2:08:22 PM
The put to call ratio is down to .61 for this past half hour, FVX is back near its lows, and while the gold contract is closed for its afternoon intermission, HUI is hitting new highs at 129.99, XAU at 68.70. Still no action from QQQ after a brief dip to the bottom of the narrow afternoon range.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  2:05:57 PM
Stock to watch - GLW. Corning Inc (GLW), which has been on the Editor's Plays PowerBall (LEAPS) play list continues to trade higher in its ascending channel. The move above $6.00 today looks very bullish and the stock's MACD is about to turn bullish as well. The company is expected to announce earnings after the bell on Tuesday. It would be tempting to go long here near the bottom of the channel but I can't bring myself to hold a long position over an earnings report from a tech company.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  2:04:06 PM
Looks like we got shocked again and are now in danger of falling out of the bottom of the pattern.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  1:54:32 PM
Wow! That's a pretty big move in NTES, Kent. Another "missed" opportunity was Marvel (MVL). Who knew last summer that Spiderman would be the biggest movie of the year with $800 million in worldwide sales? Investors could have purchased shares of MVL for just $4.00 last July. Now it's over $16. You may have heard MVL in the news this morning as the company is taking legal action against Sony (SNE) over some licensing disagreements. Rumor had it that MVL was using legal action to convince SNE to renegotiate their incredibly lucrative merchandising agreements over the Spiderman franchise. MVL denies this is a ploy to renegotiate.

Given that MVL has both X-Men II and The Hulk coming out this summer there has been a lot of interest in the stock. MVL does have options but shares look extremely overbought here. I'll be watching for any "sell-the-news" type of action when X-Men II opens on May 2nd.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:50:58 PM
The Dow is nearing the prior resistance at 8360, Naz 1425 and S&P 895. This is going to be the make or break level for all three indexes. Every time we get close it looks like they hit an electric fence and jump back when shocked. We have a pattern of higher lows and it looks like a solid bullish wedge in progress.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  1:46:54 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:46:07 PM
It is probably not a surprise to everyone that the Iraqi Information Minister has not been seen since he gave reporters a tour of his office and showed them where he was sleeping at night to avoid the coalition bombs. The interview was replayed multiple times on all the news channels. Good chance there was a JDAM with his name on it that night. Should be a clue to future ministers in countries under attack. Too much information can be dangerous.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  1:44:48 PM
LOL Jim!

The sideways movement on the Qubes is threatening to take out today's descending trendline connecting the tops.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:42:09 PM
The Saddam rumor was just denied by the Iraqi Information Minister. He said Americans were not in Iraq and Saddam was just on vacation on the Riviera. I guess that four weeks of war TV was just Iraqi misinformation. (grin) Did you here that one of the doll companies is making a doll of the IIM? Seriously. Also four Iraqis have appeared claiming to be the chief of police for Baghdad. Turns out none were. The loot and scoot plan has turned into the great imposter shell game as every Iraqi with guts claims to be anybody with a job and title in hopes of getting a fat position. I assume they think all Iraqis look alike to Americans.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/21/03,  1:36:01 PM
As Jim mentioned earlier, YHOO ($25.27 +0.18) has forged ahead to fresh 52-week highs. Our long play on PremierInvestor was activated this morning at $25.26: Link

And speaking of internets...those Chinese portal stocks just keep on rocking! It bears an eerie resemblance to the late-90's internet glory days. I'm still kicking myself for not snagging some Netease (NTES) on that pullback to $10.00 last month. Since then the stock has more than doubled and is now sitting at all-time highs. Another strong performer is Sina Corp. (SINA), which is currently trading near multi-year highs.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:33:03 PM
Gosh, I blinked and the Nasdaq has nearly made it back to positive territory and nearly to 1425 again. It must not have been a blink, maybe I dozed off for a while due to the lack of excitement.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  1:33:01 PM
A Lehman Brothers analysts has been quoted as saying they expect Cisco Systems (CSCO) earnings to come in on the low end of forecasts. Earnings are expected on May 6th, 2003. The stock is up 2 cents.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:29:52 PM
FDX and UPS are trading down after the negative Barron's article over the weekend. ABF is continuing to hold its own at $20 after the huge spike in late March. The article focused on the lack of a timely economic recovery and the high valuations demanded by FDX/UPS stock prices. We use all three for various types of packages and Airborne is waging a serious fight for market share. I receive books from Amazon periodically and some of them have been routed though Airborne to local UPS hubs. Nickel here, nickel there and Amazon will eventually turn a profit. Maybe my grand kids will see it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  1:26:50 PM
It's been CNBC turnoff decade for me, since Summer 2000. I haven't missed it at all, other than the Stuart-the-photocopy-boy Ameritrade ads. I have a fast internet connection, but I don't even subscribe to cable. Just rabbit ears and a DVD player.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  1:24:33 PM
Gold is now up 6.40, above 333/oz.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  1:24:33 PM
Jon, have you already started your own TV-Turnoff week or is it just CNBC-turnoff week?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  1:22:47 PM
I don't watch the World's Longest Running Infomercial (CNBC), but I'm hoping it was Dan Niles who made that bullish call (given my open put position).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  1:21:20 PM
QQQ is dealing with that descending trendline on the 3 minute chart, and if the trendline holds, we should not see above 26.90 again. QQV had dropped down to a .50 gain, but is now back up at 30.93, +.91. FVX is up 5.5 bps, well off its lows. These quick moves make the QQQ's stability this afternoon pale in comparison, and the flatline we're seeing in the indices won't go on forever.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:18:59 PM
EBAY is starting to ease off its highs of $92 today in advance of its earnings tomorrow. I would expect this is just profit taking but it will be interesting to see if the momentum players jump back in if they announce a split tomorrow.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:18:42 PM
If you owned HITK at $12 back on March 1st you should be a happy camper today at $32. I don't know what is moving this stock but there appears to be no end to this ramp job.

 
 
  John Beyer   4/21/03,  1:16:26 PM
Hmm, now which way would Saddam being alive and spotted move the market?Speaking of strange sightings, did anyone get the name of the analyst that declared on CNBC just now what a new bull market is underway. I had spaced out and didn't get his name. I don't think it was Abbey Joseph Cohen. Whoever it was, they're bullish and moving to aggressively bullish in the near term. Good enough for me!!

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  1:11:12 PM
There is a rumor making the rounds that Saddam is alive and has been spotted. I doubt this is what is moving the markets but the rumor is active.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  1:07:05 PM
I'm curious...how many of our readers are participating in the TV-Turnoff Week 2003, which starts today? I'm even more curious if anyone has done this before and if they noticed any change in their trading patterns and success.

Not familiar with TV-Turnoff Week? Neither was I. Evidently, more than 7 million adults and children are expected to participate this week (April 21-27, 2003).

Interesting note...from their website (tvturnoff.org):

* On average, children in the US will spend more time in front of the television (1,023 hours) than in school this year (900 hours).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  1:06:54 PM
Another total put to call ratio reading at .65 for this past half hour. The TRINQ is at .90, TICK.NQ +67, QQQ 26.80. Everything is very busy going nowhere, except gold which is holding above 332/oz.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:54:37 PM
FVX has dropped to a 3.7 bp gain on the day.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  12:53:00 PM
Fed Funds Update: With the next FOMC meeting on May-6th the chances of a rate cut have dropped to almost nothing at 15%. There are some signs of the economy rebounding although slight and rare. The Fed is thought to be on hold until the results of the war appear (or not). There is a 40% chance of a rate cut by the July meeting but most analysts feel that July will not be enough time to see any material recovery. The real chance of a cut (72%) is for the August meeting. This will be after the summer doldrums are in full swing, the war will be forgotten and the July earnings and guidance will be known. Until then we will wander aimlessly and depend on the guidance as a result of Fed non-action to give us direction as to their thoughts.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:47:52 PM
QQQ 26.79 is a trendline I have left over from weeks past (infinite trendline setting in prophet charts). QQQ is testing that level again.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  12:46:41 PM
TRMS, a favorite call play in the past has broken down below support at $40 and it appears the markets love affair with the pipeline full of drugs has faded. At $38.25 today it is trading at the December lows and threatening to fall even further. Buying opportunity? Not yet, but I would keep a watch on it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:46:09 PM
The level of denial on the SARS epidemic continues to amaze me: Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  12:44:12 PM
A Reuters article that came out about an hour ago says that retailers are seeing weak April sales. Wal-Mart (WMT) said that "overall Easter sales were okay" but it seems that same store sales for April are tracking near the lower end of estimates. Meanwhile, J.C.Penney (JCP) and Federated Deapartment Stores (FD), owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales, continue to see lower same-store sales for April. We're not seeing any reaction to this in the S&P Retail index (RLX), but the advance in the group is looking a little tired.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:42:15 PM
Gold has just spiked, up 5.90 to 332.90, HUI +2.28 to 129.09, XAU +1.14 68.15.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:35:15 PM
The TRINQ is lower at .64, TICK.NQ flat, FVX +6.2 bps. There's very little guidance, so I'm drawing trendlines. We have a descending trendline connecting today's highs, currently in the 26.92 range.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  12:29:31 PM
odds are they're going to vote "No" this time.

 
 
  James Brown   4/21/03,  12:28:55 PM
Just heard on the news that AMR, which had narrowly escaped going to bankruptcy last week, may be going under anyway. Evidently, during all of these cost and pay reduction negotiations they made with their pilots, mechanics, and flight attendant unions, they neglected to mention a "compensation package" for the upper crust of the company. Now the Flight attendant union says they're going to vote again.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  12:28:11 PM
One hour later and the Dow is still +3.00 and the NAZ -3.00. Does the term range bound ring a bell?

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  12:19:05 PM
In the rush to get out the Sunday newsletter on Thursday night there were several articles that did not make the publishing deadline. We will be sending out a special update later today which will contain articles from Mike Parnos, Steve Gould and Vlada Raicevic. They will also be updated to the website later today. We apologize for the error.

Also, the Sunday newsletter was incorrectly labeled as the Thursday newsletter which further added to the confusion. If you got the Thursday newsletter you actually received the Sunday edition.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:13:47 PM
Strength continues in gold and the miners- spot gold +4.10 to 331.10, HUI +2.05 to 128.86, XAU +1.11 to 68.12.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  12:10:19 PM
TSCO, a strong performer for April, announced a smaller than expected loss last week and spiked well over $42. That excitement appears to be fading and TSCO looks to be in danger of breaking that $42 support. The June $40 put is currently trading around $4.00 and the risk could be a drop to something in the $37 range on further market weakness.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:09:30 PM
The put to call ratio peaked at .68 for one hour, and just printed .64 for its last reading.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  12:04:50 PM
The VIX is dropping again, now 24.87 and the TRIN is down to .76. The A/D line has recovered to +586 after the 10:30 drop. Still no conviction despite the +20 point Dow bounce. The Nasdaq is acting like the anchor today and it does not appear there is enough conviction to change it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  12:04:03 PM
The FVX is up 6.2 bps now, confirming the level of the QQQ at 26.94- near the highs, but no sign of a breakout yet. The fed announced a 2.75B overnight repo on top of the 3.5B repo, for a net drain of only .5B, and not 3.25B as appeared earlier today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  11:53:19 AM
I clicked over to a hotlist of the "very short term up" and another of the "very short term down" stocks in Qcharts. Usually this is a list of 30-100 stocks moving up/down for the last several minutes. It is a good tool for seeing movers jump out in front of the crowd. To my surprise there was ONE symbol on each hotlist. ONE !! Shows how few traders are chasing stocks today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  11:48:38 AM
Dow +3, NAZ -3, definitely a flat market and a complete lack of any conviction by either side.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  11:48:11 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  11:44:36 AM
Can you believe YHOO and EBAY? Both are hitting 52-week highs and showing no signs of slowing. EBAY typically splits 2:1 over $75 and there could be an announcement at any time. With EBAY earnings tomorrow I would bet on an announcement then. The May $95 call is trading for $1.65 this morning.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  11:38:14 AM
The SOX is struggling today with no material news in the sector. The buyers from last week appear to have consumed all the chips they want with out an additional dip. The SARS news is weighing on the sector as well as the loser than expected book-to-bill report.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  11:28:25 AM
The TICK.NQ is mildly bullish at +180, TRINQ neutral at 1.0, VXN +.63 to 36.51, QQV +1.52 at 31.54. QQQ is now at 26.85 resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  11:23:06 AM
Worse than all of those? Canadian reality TV "Pop Stars" high-school talent show- creates an irrestible urge to claw out one's eyes and plug one's ears. Looks like a potential lower high on the QQQ 3 minute candles. FVX +5.5 bps now.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  11:15:54 AM
Reality TV: Monica Lewinsky is on ABC co-hosting The View this morning. From what I understand there is a viewer revolt with thousand of negative emails and boycotts of the show. Monica is going to be hosting a TV show called "Mr Personality" where women pick a date by comparing personalities of the men who will be wearing masks. See, there are worse things than a stagnant market.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  11:05:20 AM
26.85 is decent resistance overhead, and QQQ seems to be rising off its intraday low in a bear flag on the 3 minute candles. FVX is up 5.8 bps now, dropping slowly.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  11:00:36 AM
The Dow has support at 8200 then 8000 but resistance is continually declining. The 200 EMA and the down trend from December have been formidable. Chart: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  10:59:18 AM
I have always heard in the past that Greenspan does get government numbers in advance if there is going to be a FOMC meeting. I do not have anything to back up my memory but this has been my understanding for years.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:50:43 AM
This may be a stupid question, but does Greenspan receive economic data ahead of the general public?

It's a great question. I've always assumed not, but now that you mention it, I have no way of backing up my assumption. Does anyone have a line on this?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:46:34 AM
Equity pcr .44, index pcr 1.35, total pcr now .55.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  10:44:00 AM
We got that pause at 8300 but it does not look convincing. This is also a psychological level as well and a break below it could set up a retest of the 8150 bottom of our current range.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:40:14 AM
Intervention? But of course!

"TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Monday the central bank and the government will keep doing their utmost to ensure stability in the financial system."

I've included a picture of The Man, To Fukui: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:31:45 AM
The COMPX is dealing with that weaker 1417ish s/r zone that we recall so well. QQQ off its lows, currently 26.73. FVX is showing utter confidence here, up 6.9 bps. A range between 1415-1430 COMPX would be the perfect recipe to add a few grey hairs today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  10:28:36 AM
8300 is the Dow Pivot and a potential support point if it breaks 8330. The 8330 level was resistance on the upside for several days and should now be first line support. At 1417 the Nasdaq has dropped significantly below 1425 resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:26:01 AM
I blinked and QQQ dumped 10 cents like a bad habit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  10:24:53 AM
NASADAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,078 -0.63% ... session low here after leading indicators index reported.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  10:23:44 AM
The outlook for Jonathan's puts is looking up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:23:22 AM
The US Dollar Index is all the way up to 99.80, yet gold is holding 330/oz.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  10:19:03 AM
The Nasdaq is trading back below 1425 again and the Dow appears to have failed at 8400. This is not looking good.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:17:02 AM
Don't feel bad. You're not the only one with lots of "underwater" puts. Here's hoping this thing finally goes down soon!

Thanks, I don't, and yes, I do too. The thing is that with VXN and QQV down the turlett, as my little brother likes to say, long options are the place to be, and more particularly, I think, puts. Buying calls last week would have been a beautiful play for the veyr courageous, but with the VIX, VXN and QQV dropping, those contracts were bleeding premium even as the intrinsic value grew. Buying puts will be a good play (I'm hoping), because if the indices dump, volatility will rebound, and my contracts will getting a boost from both intrinsic value and premium. This is my plan, but so far, the indices are not obliging me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  10:15:49 AM
March Leading Indicators Index fell 0.2%, which was inline with economist's forecast. With the February decline revised lower to -0.5% from -0.4%. The coincidence index was unchanged and the lagging index fell 0.1%.

Five of the 10 leading indicators fell in March: Building Permits, Jobless Claims, Interest Rate Spreads, Money Supply and Consumer Expectations.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  10:15:44 AM
The A/D line at +1056 is starting to look like it is about to roll over.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  10:12:32 AM
The Dow bounced off the 8400 level, actually missing it by -3 points and the Nasdaq is threatening to break under 1425 resistance again. It must hold if we are going to have any chance for a continued rebound for the Dow. The volume is far too light for the Dow to carry tech today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:05:26 AM
That put to call ratio is comprised of an equity pcr of .36 and an index pcr of 1.12. Very bearish configuration from my perspective, and the overall low number as well. Disclosure: I'm loaded to the gills with now-underwater puts.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:04:00 AM
Total put to call reading .45 for 1st half hour. I know that the COMPX is in potential breakaway mode and that it's still the tail end of opex week, but... come on... .45 ?!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  10:01:06 AM
LEI down 0.2%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  9:59:07 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 4.028% ... just off its session high YIELD of 4.032%, which came very near its WEEKLY R1 of 4.030%. Overlapping YIELD resistance at 4.049% from WEEKLY 19.1% retracement and 4.048% from conventional along with 200-day SMA of 4.0432% provide technical YIELD resistance. This might just "jive" with the major indexes at their WEEKLY R1s. The reason I think this correlative resistance matches up better is that bond YIELDS lagged equity price movement last week. Will see, but WEEKLY R1 for equities looks in play here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  9:58:21 AM
Al Green has just announced a 3.5B 10-day repo, for a 3.25B net drain.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  9:54:25 AM
Dow 8400-8450 should be decent resistance to the morning bounce and is likely the level we will stagnate for the rest of the day unless some volume appears to move the markets.

The Nasdaq finally broke the 1425 barrier and should it hold above that level it would provide a bullish tint to the market. This has been strong resistance for weeks.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  9:50:02 AM
The minor selling at the open managed to tick up the VIX to slightly over 25.00 and raise the TRIN to 1.00. Both of these numbers are neutral for the morning activity. The A/D line is only slightly positive at +601.

There is no conviction and it would appear that many traders took an extra day off this week. Contrary to last week the Nasdaq is the lagging indicator today, up only +1.36 compared to the +31 for the Dow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  9:49:27 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $23.61 +7.3% ... Thursday's strong move higher getting some follow through today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  9:45:04 AM
The Semi Book-to-Bill was announced Thursday night at .99 and was less than expected at 1.02. It was also flat with the February number. Semis are not getting worse but they are not getting better either. At this point it would appear flat is good.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  9:45:00 AM
Al Green has 6.75B in repos expiring. We await the announcement at 10AM. QQQ is peeking its head above 27.00, as FVX hits a high of the day at +7.1 bps. QQV is still climbing, though, +1.52 at 31.54.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  9:44:20 AM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 895 +0.2% ... looks to have upside here to WEEKLY R1 of 904.10. There's correlative overlap from WEEKLY R1 904.10 and the 19.1% retracement from the WEEKLY pivot analysis retracement at 903.85. SPX found early morning support at this WEEKLY retracement of 38.2% at 892.95.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  9:36:01 AM
Mutual funds saw inflows last week of +$8.7 billion which helped power the markets as the war winds down. The techs saw the benefit of those funds as better than expected tech earnings promoted interest in that sector.

The markets opened flat as expected and we have no early direction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  9:33:48 AM
The Qubes opened flat and are holding their opening level of 26.90 with so far brief dips at 26.87. A failure here would be distinctly not-bullish. FVX is down some, up 5.6 bps now, QQV is +1.37 to 31.39, TRINQ .88.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  9:30:24 AM
Treasuries continue to get sold- FVX now up 6.3 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  9:28:14 AM
Strong selling in Treasuries builds into opening of stocks with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) now rising to 4.018% and above today's DAILY R2.

Most likely, action is being driven after The Wall Street Journal reported that Treasury Secretary John Snow suggested he would settle for half the dividend-tax break proposed for this year if Congress agreed to eliminate the tax entirely over the rest of the decade. Also, instead of slashing the top individual marginal tax rate to 35% this year from 38.6%, as President Bush has proposed, Snow said he would consider delaying the cut while reducing other income-tax rates this year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/21/03,  9:16:39 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  9:13:42 AM
Futures are still flat with no real direction being indicated. On a Monday after an expiration there is normally some opening volatility but the majority of days we close without a big move. Also, the trend for the Monday after Easter is historically bullish. Neither of these trends are 100% but they do follow the trend about 75% of the time.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  9:03:17 AM
Despite the increased selling in treasuries, with FVX now +4 bps, buying in increasing in gold, with spot gold now trading 330.60. Flight to quality?

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  8:54:38 AM
The Nikkei traded up +1.2% despite a rising SARS epidemic impacting Asian business. London was closed for an extended Easter holiday. On the US side we are moving into the second major week of earnings with another 1/3 of the S&P reporting in a crowd of over 300 companies for the week.

MMM reported earnings of $1.42 a share and beat estimates by 2 cents. MRK reported inline and LXK bet by a penny. Futures have been erratic but are trading around neutral giving no real indication of the opening market direction.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/21/03,  8:44:23 AM
This is going to be a slow day on the monitor. Linda and Mark Phillips are taking an extended holiday and will not be posting today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  8:31:23 AM
Gold continues higher, +2.50 now at 329.50. Bonds have just opened and are seeing some selling in the first minute, with FVX +2.9 bps, TNX +1.6 bps and TYX +.9 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  8:27:59 AM
Data due at 10:00AM: Leading Indicators for March, prior -0.4% consensus -0.1%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/21/03,  8:09:50 AM
The US Dollar Index is trading the 99.20 level, and gold is up 2$ to 329/oz spot. Equity futures have been chopping around just above current levels all night, with ES3M up 1.50 to 892.75, ND3M +1.00 to 1084. QQQ is currently trading 26.92.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/17/03,  10:56:32 PM
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