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  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  9:52:56 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  7:37:25 PM
Reuters is reporting that AMR will file bankruptcy on Friday morning.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  5:38:05 PM
NWAC plane being held on the ground in San Francisco on the way to Minnesota due to SARS. Late word, a passenger with symptoms was taken off the plane and screened and the plane may be allowed to leave.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  5:29:45 PM
VRSN guidance, visibility limited, tough times ahead, revenue will decline, revenue $260-$265mil vs $269m est, 14 cents guidance vs 14 est

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:48:30 PM
Tareq Aziz is in US custody

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:40:50 PM
PVN 52 cents

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:29:17 PM
SBUX 13 cents inline, cutting internal goals to 66 cents and inline with street

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:19:29 PM
IVGN proforma 52 vs 48 est

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:17:24 PM
WDC 26 vs est 21

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:17:07 PM
MSFT CEO expecting slow economic growth over the next full year.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  4:15:40 PM
Amazon.com (AMZN) $25.12 -1.21% ... jumps to $26.26 in after-hours. BIG volume of 1 million in first 5-minutes of extended hours.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:13:24 PM
AMZN being reported at +10 VS est of +04. Confusion on what is included in numbers. Lots of items

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:10:24 PM
VRSN 18 cents est 14 cents

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:09:51 PM
HLIT -19 vs est -14

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:07:55 PM
ELX 22 cents , est 21 cents

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:07:06 PM
OPWV -13 cents, est -11

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:06:43 PM
ZRAN 4 cents, est 2

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:05:33 PM
SBUX 13 cents, est 66-67 for year.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:05:10 PM
AMZN 10 cents proforma
Loss after items of -.03 cents, estimate -4 cents Guiding higher on revenues next Q

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  4:04:54 PM
Geron (GERN) I still haven't found any news, but this is starting to look like a short-squeeze.

For instance... shares short doubled in the recent month to 1.7 million (as of March 3). With average daily volume of just 101,000, this would have the short ratio jumping to 16.89 days to cover.

Now... most of this data is prior to the rund from $2.00 to $7.00, but I would have to think there was quite a bit of stock shorted to the market by market makers into the move, as they provided liquidity to buyers on the run up.

What has me thinking a short-squeeze is on, is the "sudden" gap from $4.32 to $4.60 in the matter of second.

I was envolved in something similar years ago. The firm I worked for was primary market maker in WAVE, and if memory serves me correct, Paine Webber was BIG short in the stock.

While it made me a bit upset, evidently our trading desk had been lending WAVO stock to Paine so they could short it. WAVO I think put some pressure on the firm I worked for to get the short off, or no more investment banking deals.

We called in the stock from Paine and wanted it returned. This created a pretty decent short-squeeze over the next couple of weeks.

Here's the link the the short-interest I see in the stock. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:04:14 PM
NSIT 15 cents vs 14 est

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  4:03:40 PM
FLEX 5 cents, est 9 cents

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  4:00:49 PM
Once again the TRAN was not able to maintain that 2375 level, and has printed a doji at resistance. This is not the second candle of a potential evening-star formation, since the configuration of the candles is not correct, but does indicate some loss in momentum of the upward move. This loss in momentum comes right at the top of that right-angle broadening formation I mentioned earlier today. Here's another index that perhaps needs to pull back and retest important levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  3:46:04 PM
Currently at 341.05 and falling in the last few minutes, the SOX remains above its 200-ema at 333.62, but daily 5(3)3 and 21(3)3 stochastics have made a bearish kiss in overbought territory, RSI has begun to roll over, and the candlestick configurations look somewhat bearish. MACD still looks bullish. The minimum bullish target from the double-bottom formation formed in late March and early April has now been met. It may just be time for the SOX to pull back to its 200-ema and retest that level, as should be done if traders are to have confidence in that MA as support, but a deeper fall through the 200-ema might dash some bullish hopes. Weekly indicators are inconclusive, not giving many hints of future direction.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/24/03,  3:40:03 PM
Here's another example of why we usually advise against holding over earnings: Ikon (IKN) is getting whacked for a loss of nearly 15% after the company missed guidance by a penny and guided lower for 2003. Shareholders must find it very frustrating to see nearly two weeks of steady gains go up in smoke within a matter of hours. The stock looks to be headed for a test of underlying support in the $6.75-$7.00 region.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  3:35:32 PM
I correspond intraday with an awful lot of traders. Never before have I seen so many bears who have become bullish. The utter confidence of bulls is nothing new, but many bears have thrown in the towel, for the moment, including diehards such as Fleckenstein and Doug Noland. I'm getting creamed on my current position, but I have great difficulty believing that the market will reward such a vast majority. JMHO.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  3:27:42 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  3:22:48 PM
As we discussed yesterday, there are a lot of traders watching how MMM endures the current market fluctuations. The daily chart is showing a pull back toward the $125 level and its simple 200-dma. This should be some amount of support and it coincides with the support seen on the MMM point-and-figure chart. See it here: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  3:21:42 PM
The TRAN continues to extend its gains above its 200-ema while its sister index, the DJI, still has not been able to push above its 200-ema.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  3:20:52 PM
I hear frustrated screams coming from north of the border. Is that you? :) Looks like talks have broken down with North Korea. Can't be good news.

Yes, and no. On that last spike, I was checking out an option chain, looking for some front month OTM puts to short against my long back month puts, because being unhedged in this bassomatic market is beginning to scare me. I'll be watching the oscillators and option prices on the next dip (if we see one) and will decide whether to sell some premium there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  3:18:02 PM
Total volume today is 1.13 billion on the NYSE and 1.26 billion on the Nasdaq. Decliners still remain below advancers, but by slimmer proportions than was true earlier. Down volume is ahead on the NYSE, but up and down volume are nearly equal on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  3:06:20 PM
Fascinating- the current move blasted straight up to the projection from the bullish descending wedge I was following and gave up on earlier. The aimless chop following the breakout discouraged me, but it seems to have just played out to a "t". Direction from here is now up for grabs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  2:55:50 PM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,113.51 +0.05% ... bids green for first time in today's session.

Biotechs look to be the driver.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  2:54:11 PM
Another blast up on QQQ, currently 27.69. FVX up to -9.4 bps on the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  2:53:36 PM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 364.60 +1.75% ... Session highs here and making a break above horizontal resistance of 360.

Kent Barton wrote up the BTK.X in yesterday's 03:15 PM EST Update at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  2:50:41 PM
Genzyme (GENZ) $39.00 +7% ... sudden spike higher in price in this biotech stock too. Trader talk is FDA approval of Fabrazyme.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  2:47:50 PM
The TRAN makes another push for historical resistance at 2375 and yesterday's high at 2376.49. Currently, the TRAN is 2373.05.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  2:45:17 PM
On the daily OEX chart, today's move has been enough to turn the RSI down, but not to produce a full-out bearish roll in this indicator. Both stochs setting I use shows stochastics in levels indicating overbought conditions, but not yet turning down. The OEX has maintained its 200-ema. From those daily indicators, it doesn't appear that we've yet gotten the pullback, but those indicators can also cycle down to oversold levels again while price remains steady. The daily ADX shows that the current trend is gaining strength, so consolidation while oscillators cycle is certainly a possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  2:35:26 PM
Geron Corp. (GERN) $4.64 +6% ... stock gaps up in "wild" fashion. No news at this point.

Stock "gapped" from $4.30 and suddenly offers were $4.60. No real volume either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  2:27:35 PM
The bounce off the lows made it to 27.57, a 78.6% retracement of the move off today's highs. 27.50 is a 61.8% retracement, and QQQ seems to be ping ponging between the two. FVX is down 11.5 bps, so yet again, I expect overall weakness, despite what we've been seeing so far today. We have a pattern of lower highs printing, but it sure is a slow decline given the meteoric rise that got us here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  2:11:51 PM
On the OEX 60-minute chart, the stochastics have followed the RSI's example and have turned up, the 5(3)3's from levels indicating oversold conditions, but the 21(3)3's from midfall. Some technicians see the RSI as a leading indicator, and it often does show the first indication of an impending move, particularly when watching chart formations produced by the RSI indicator. The RSI's hinge up when it hit that ascending trendline occurred before the stochs turned up. Like the RSI, the 21(3)3 stochs are showing a pattern of higher lows, although the ascending line here is of a shorter duration than the one on the RSI. Traders can watch for trendline breaks in or bounces from these formations or trendlines on the indicators to confirm breaks or bounces in the price chart.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/24/03,  2:09:16 PM
Krispy Kreme (KKD) $32.37 +0.28: KKD was featured on last night's PI Watchlist. What we're looking for is a breakdown below support at $32.00. That would put the stock into a large fast-move region that was created by the mid-February rally from $28.00. This morning a stray trade of 1,000 shares went off at $31.17. A 1-minute chart shows that for all intents and purposes, the intraday low is really $32.01. That means that support has not yet been broken.

By the way, does anyone else think their doughnuts are over-rated? I have sinking suspicion that Krispy Kreme sneaks some sort of addictive drug into their products...especially those glazed doughnuts that people can't seem to get enough of. Maybe they should call it Krispy Krack.

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  2:06:28 PM
Looks like word on the street about Microsoft's new Server 2003 operating system, designed to compete against the likes of UNIX, LINUX and SUN, is rather muted. We're certainly not seeing a reaction in shares of MSFT.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  2:03:38 PM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 23.48 -0.04% ... just dipping into the red here as S&P 500 (SPX.X) 912.42 -0.71% makes a move higher from the 910 congestion.

Intra-day chart watchers will note this morning's "failed" rally attempt from early low of 910 failed right at the WEEKLY R2 of 914.70. Will monitor 914.70 for resistance on this afternoon rebound.

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  2:03:18 PM
So, Mark, are you saying there's a possible futures for the new Hooter's Air? Some of you think I'm joking. Check it out: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  2:02:36 PM
We've just seen a very shallow pullback, more of a pause, and QQQ is now trading above 27.50. FVX is still holding most of its losses, down 10.7 bps, TRINQ still neutral at 1.14, TICK.NQ bullish at +290, QQV neutral to bullish -.17 to 28.59.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  1:52:45 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  1:43:49 PM
The total put to call ratio is now .92, comprised of an equity pcr of .77 and index 1.88. The move higher in the index reading I read as bearish, but the overall .92 reading is still too high for this bear's liking.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/24/03,  1:43:44 PM
To get a good idea of what's keeping a lid on the tech sector, one only needs to look at the daily charts for the semiconductor (SOX.X) and software (GSO.X) indexes. They're both trading just under resistance (350 on the SOX, 111-111.50 on the GSO) with the daily stochastics looking awfully top-heavy. The technical picture is similar on the NASDAQ, with the index holding below the January highs of 1467.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  1:39:23 PM
A reader sent a weekly XAU chart, showing oscillators that are turning up from levels indicating oversold conditions. (Thanks, B.) I also noticed that the oscillators were turning up while prices were near the level of a long-term ascending trendline formed as the XAU moved off the November 2000 lows. A glance at the P&F chart shows that the XAU has given an ascending-triple-top breakout buy signal, although the XAU still remains below its bearish ascending line.

Time to buy? Perhaps not just yet. When I dialed down to a daily chart, I noticed 21(3)3 stochastics, RSI, and MACD that all look to be rolling over or at least hinting at the possibility (in the case of the MACD), while price is just below the 200-ema and the 70-level historical resistance the reader mentioned. XAU prices are also being turned back by a violated ascending trendline off the July lows. OBV is not indicating any accumulation. My interpretation? The XAU may need to pull back further toward that longer-term ascending trendline, now crossing at about 63.30, with the possibility that the XAU would not reach that low before turning back up. Because gold or gold-mining stocks can be so tricky because of the possible impact of geopolitical developments, I'm a little leery of jumping into an XAU play unless everything's working in my favor. This scan of charts shows that when a longer-term chart shows that a play might have merits, it's helpful to then dial down to a shorter-term chart to help time entries. Jonathan watches these stocks more closely than I do, and he might find different interpretations of what's seen on these charts. If so, Jonathan, just weigh in.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/24/03,  1:38:17 PM
Did the market go on vacation out of spite? I got my charts running again but then found myself tapping on the screen wondering if they had frozen up again. Nope, I'm actually getting live data, but there isn't a whit of conviction in this market. Bulls can't break that very strong resistance, but apparently the bears have no interest in trying to take it down either.

The continuous bleed in the Treasury yields certainly paints a picture of no strength available in the equity markets today. That makes long the wrong direction for me. But interestingly, we really can't make any gains on the downside either. A very strange market indeed!

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  1:25:34 PM
AXP earnings = 53 cents vs 52 cent estimate, guess Yahoo Earnings calendar was wrong after all.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  1:20:10 PM
Well, the upper trendline of the bullish wedge got busted, but it doesn't feel like a breakout at all, with not one cent of upward movement- more of a sideways drift. So much for that pattern.

 
 
  John Beyer   4/24/03,  1:17:22 PM
C down 1.35 today and JPM down 1. Both have gained over $2 since their earnings reports on the 14th and 16th respectively. They did well over the quarter on cheap home loans and refi's. Now they're giving back 50%. That's pretty steep to be just profit taking. Relative to AXP earnings, which are heavily depentent on credit card and credit services, if they report bad news the market won't take it well since credit delinquencies is an important economic indicator. AXP is down .54 today midway between it's high and low for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  12:59:34 PM
Other than new highs/new lows, volume patterns still show more decliners than advancers, and heavier down volume than up volume. Total volume is 752 million shares on the NYSE and 863 million on the Nasdaq.

However, there's now a definite upward hinging on the 60-minute OEX RSI, still following a pattern of higher RSI lows, with the ascending trendline begun on March 31. The 5(3)3 stochastics on that chart reach nearly to levels indicating oversold conditions, with the fast line already there and trying to turn up. Bulls are not going to give up easily here, if at all.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  12:55:29 PM
Retraction: AXP will announce after the close according to the Yahoo earnings calendar. They had historically announced in the 12:30-2:PM range intraday. Wonder if this means we are going to see something unexpected?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  12:50:19 PM
FVX has pulled up to a 10.3 bp loss, and QQQ is breaking above its descending trendline here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  12:44:16 PM
QQQ is back to the descending trendline on the bullish descending wedge. More upside from here will be either an early breakout or an invalidation of the pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  12:43:24 PM
The 2375 historical resistance proved to be too much for the $TRAN yesterday, but the pullback today seems to be shallow so far. An examination of the daily chart shows that since April 16, the $TRAN has been moving in a formation Pring calls a right-angled broadening formation. This type of formation has a flat bottom with rising peaks connected by a trendline. Volume is usually heavier on the rally phases, he comments. Nonetheless, this is viewed as a likely bearish pattern, and the bearishness would be confirmed by a break through 2300. With the 200-ema at 2299, this level is given even more significance. Is that break below 2300 likely to happen? Some bullish signs remain on the chart, such as some bullish MA crossovers. I've been watching the TRAN closely because its movement over the 200-ema hasn't been echoed by a similar movement in the DJI, its sister index in Dow theory. What can the P&F chart show us? Link This chart shows that the TRAN has not yet given a P&F buy signal and remains under its bearish resistance line. The TRAN has been making a series of lower lows on the P&F chart. However, on the last sell signal, the TRAN reversed upward, retracing more than 50% of the previous move and giving a low-pole-reversal signal with potentially bullish implications. A new buy signal would also move the TRAN above that bearish resistance line. Therefore, to help me gauge overall market health, I'll be watching the 2400 and 2300 levels closely, and pairing the TRAN's behavior to the DOW's. Currently, the TRAN trades at 2364.98.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  12:40:01 PM
Major Maturities buying across the board in the 5, 10 and 30-year.

Starting with shorter-term 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 2.84%, this bond's YIELD chart did trigger a "bullish triangle" in early April at 3.0%, but today's YIELD trade at 2.85% is enough for 3-box reversal. Index traders think... "3-box reversal" for indexes based on this observation. Link Thinking of this bond as "safest" YIELD, equity bulls still positive unless YIELD breaks below upward trend at 2.75%.

Moving to "belly of the curve" in the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.894%, we see no change in it's chart. Last night I showed 2 "blue" question marks (?) that represented yesterday's YIELD move higher. It wasn't enough for a 3-box reversal up. No real "meaningful" move in its YIELD today based on this chart, but we get the feel that there isn't a lot of bullish cash to be found. Right now, we'd expect bears that have gotten a little sideway to be buying pullbacks as they attempt to get their account management back under control. Link

Moving out the the longer-dated 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 4.82%, this is the bond that finds the bulk of today's buying. Link . While this is "riskiest" bond, it also has the higher YIELD. A YIELD trade of 4.8% would be viewed as a negative for equities in my opinion as this would be a break of upward trend and generate a "double-bottom" sell signal on the YIELD chart.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/24/03,  12:37:25 PM
I'm still having problems with my charts, but wanted to add to James' comments on JBLU (12:05:54). I think there is an important lesson for the overall airline industry in JBLU's success so far. The company's management team understands the lesson that has been completely lost on the rest of the airline industry. That lesson is that each passenger is a paying customer and should be treated accordlingly, not so much chilled meat. Until the management teams at the other carriers grasp the lesson that airline passengers want to be treated with dignity and respect, their businesses will continue to atrophy. Like Nero, I will gladly fiddle while the industry burns.

You see, this is the beauty of a capitalistic system. I think there will always be a need for efficient commercial air travel. As long as that need exists, there will be a market for well-run enterprises like JBLU. Those companies that can't adapt to the demands of the marketplace will be relegated to the annals of history with a brief footnote. And as an eager consumer of quality products and services, I say good riddance to the old and gladly welcome the new!

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  12:36:40 PM
AXP earnings should be announced any minute. Estimates ate 52 cents.

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  12:21:15 PM
For any Lucent (LU) Shareholders out there, the company's COO is expected to be leaving this summer.

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  12:19:33 PM
SNE just announced earnings last night/this morning and they were terrible.

Not only did results for the year ending March 31st appear to be low (net profit of 115.5 billion yen, or $963 million) but their guidance for this year is less than HALF that amount. For the year starting April 1st, SNE says net profit should be about 50 billion yen, or $415 million.

The stock is diving, currently down 13% to 27.15. Shares were already in decline due to the slow economy worldwide and the big drop in the US dollar but this big sell off has put SNE below HUGE support at $30 (check the weekly chart). The next major support level appears to be $23.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  12:16:52 PM
A moment of silence for bears caught short in FILE. Big move today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  12:10:00 PM
As the OEX steadies near its 60-minute 21-pma and near the April 7 460.44 high, the fast line of the 5(3)3 stochastics has reached all the way toward levels indicating oversold conditions. The slow line lags behind, and neither has turned up at all. The slow line of the 21(3)3 stochastics is only now turning down out of overbought levels. The RSI hooks up, however, with these various factors depicting that another bull/bear battle may be staged at this level. Just as the 5(3)3 stochastics were earlier showing bearish divergence, they're now setting up for possible bullish divergence (lower low on the stochs and higher low on the price). That divergence isn't confirmed yet, as prices could plunge before the stochs turn up again, but it's something to watch.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  12:08:49 PM
QQQ is approaching descending trendline resistance on the 3 minute bull wedge I've been watching, with the line currently 27.45. I don't know whether I'm hoping for it to fail here or not, as the bullish formation projects a return to the day highs, but from lower levels. We'll see. These intraday formations aren't the strongest of chart patterns, relative to those formed over days and weeks. The massive bear wedge on AMGM from last summer, for instance, is awe-inspiring, and has killed many a bear trying to frontrun the eventual breakdown.

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  12:05:54 PM
Wow! Here's an airliner that's actually breaking out - today in fact! JetBlue Airways (JBLU) has broken out above the $30, which has been resistance since Sept. 2002. The move is powered by the company's strong earnings report. Their Q1 results were 25 cents a share, which were 3 cents above estimates. Overall opeating income rose 47 percent while sales soared higher by 63 percent.

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  11:59:31 AM
The XBD Security/Broker dealer index is the next leading loser, down 2.2 percent. Major brokers like Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD), Merrill Lynch (MER), Lehman Brothers (LEH) are all seeing profit taking from their extended rally.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  11:59:25 AM
June gold is now up 3.10 to 335.00, HUI +.31 to 130.42, XAU -.15 to 68.77.

 
 
  James Brown   4/24/03,  11:54:44 AM
The INX Internet index is the leading sector loser today. Most of the INX components are actually holding up pretty well but Overture Services (OVER) lowered guidance going forward and this has resulted in a 26.6% loss for the stock. Shares are down $4.41 to $12.07.

The INX is down 2.91 percent.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  11:54:02 AM
The US Dollar Index is sinking below 98.40, while bonds continue to be bought, FVX now down 11.8 bps. The US Dollar tanking says that money is moving out of US assets. So, this leaves a rotation of money within the US to account for domestic action. If bonds are being bought, then it takes money coming out of other assets, and obviously stocks come to mind. As long as FVX keeps sinking, I expect equities to do likewise. They can't be buying bonds without grabbing the funds from some other asset class.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  11:43:21 AM
I see what looks like a bullish descending wedge printing on the QQQ 3 minute candles, top trendline currently around 27.45 and lower trendline 27.24.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  11:41:31 AM
Down volume is now more than twice up volume again on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  11:18:01 AM
Today's selling was to be expected as the McClellan Oscillator was at +195 last night. The selling today has been attributed to the negative labor news, isn't initial claims and any labor statistic a lagging indicator?

Yes. I believe it's more likely that the markets, which measure nothing more than liquidity flows, cause the news, and not the reverse, but it's a tempting habit to invert the relationship. Other than the initial blip, I believe that the news stories get "tacked on" to the market moves by the financial media. Whatever works, but at any time, there's enough good and bad news to explain any market move. I agree with Joe Granville on this, but often fall into the trap as well. Fundamentally, a jobless, profitless recovery is difficult to contemplate. But, with enough liquidity, presumably any market outcome can be achieved. This, I believe, is Al Green's current operating theory, and also my greatest concern as an equity bear. The contraction seen in the mortgage and refi indices yesterday indicates a contraction in liquidity, which should help keep a lid on equities.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  11:16:43 AM
Just ahead of the close of trading for the FTSE 100 and CAC 40, those markets trade down. The FTSE 100 is currently down 61.40 points or 1.55%, to 3905.10, after challenging the psychologically important 4000 level yesterday. The FTSE has been falling since hitting that high point yesterday morning. The CAC has behaved similarly since briefly bumping above its psychologically important 3000 level yesterday morning. This market currently trades down 43.26 points or 1.46%, to 2919.41. Both markets look to close at or near their day's lows. The DAX currently trades down 69.88 points or 2.35%, to 2904.52, also trading near the day's low and also falling since its test of the 3000 level yesterday morning.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  11:09:00 AM
CNBC is reporting that the Help Wanted Index at 38 is at a 40 year low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  11:00:18 AM
FVX is now down 10.1 bps on the day. They don't rally treasuries when they're feeling bullish on the NDX, and so I expect further weakness once this equity prop job runs its course. The only caveat is the 3B net add from Al Green. His 22 primary dealers are probably loading the boat on bonds, but if they're unwilling to bet on equities until tomorrow, that tells us something too. All of these are my own guesses- price of the securities we trade will be the final arbiter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  11:00:02 AM
In my last post, I forgot to note that the important OEX exponential 200-dma is at 458.62.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  10:57:40 AM
The OEX slips beneath the 462 that provided support through several hours Tuesday afternoon and yesterday morning. As it does so, the 60-minute 5(3)3 stochastics turn down more strongly, already having made significant progress toward oversold levels, a somewhat troubling sign for hopeful bears. The fast line of the 21(3)3 stochastics has only now turned down strongly, however, with the slow line still sloping at a flat angle. If both lines of this longer-term and more-stable stochastics turns down in synchronization, the pullback might be expected to be stronger than if the 5(3)3 is cycling alone. The 60-minute 21-pma lies just underneath the current OEX position, at 460.29, near the significant 460 level. Below that is the 50-pma at 454.29, just above the lower ascending trendline of the wedge. Bears and bulls alike should be watchful of the quickness with which the stochastics cycle down.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  10:53:39 AM
Overture Services (OVER) $12.09 -26.6% ... stock hit lower and challenges 52-week and all-time low set on 04/02/03 of $11.62 after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.15, which beat estimates by a penny. However, company said it sees Q2 EPS of $0.04-$0.06 which is well below consensus of $0.14. Company cited lower than forecasted revenues from its pay-for-performance service, traffic acquisitions costs coming in at the high end of forecast and increased technology infrastructure expenses to drive its Web searsh and pay for performance product lines. Link

P/F chart of OVER has been longer-term bearish and today's trade at $12.50 triggers double-bottom sell signal and current bearish vertical count column builds to $7.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  10:50:09 AM
Decliners still outnumber advancers and down volume still outranks up volume, but the ratios have shifted from earlier this morning, with their import still negative but not as strongly so as earlier this morning. Total volume is now 330 million shares on the NYSE and 432 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  10:43:31 AM
The President has finished speaking. I won't comment on his summary of the stock market and economic action, but I hope Al Green was on painkillers if he was watching. The FVX is still near its lows of the day, -8.4 bps, and QQQ is still in its range, 26.45. TRINQ 1.26, TICK.NQ +18, QQV +.40. There's really no direction yet, but the support is surprising. It really feels as if resistance has been outlawed, where indices rise effortless through resistance and then find strong support at each and every retracement level on the way back- a turnstile, if you will.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  10:39:49 AM
Natural Gas Inventories Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 61 bcf last week. June Natural Gas futures contract (ng03m) down 5 cents or 0.94% at $5.685.

A quick look at Dorsey/Wright and Associates p/f chart of this contract shows this contract gave a double-bottom sell signal at $5.40 on March 13th. Current vertical count is bearish to $4.00, which would tie in with the triple-top buy signal given at $4.10 in early December, which saw this contract shoot higher to $6.30 in less than 2.5 months. To negate the current bearish count, this contract would have to trade $6.00 currently.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  10:36:45 AM
I doubt that the nation's 7+ trillion dollar deficit is due to the war in Iraq.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/24/03,  10:31:53 AM
Wow! I take a few days off and you guys push everything up to major resistance! Way to go! Now what's on tap for an encore? Two things jump out as important at current levels. I note that the DOW hasn't yet been able to best its 3/21 closing highs and the SPX is still stuck under the upper bound of its multi-yuear descending channel, which I currently peg at 924. It isn't as though clearing those levels means it will be clear sailing ahead for the bulls, as there is lots of overhead congestion from the tops in January nand then last december and August. But those levels for the DOW and SPX are critical tests for the bulls'conviction over the near term.

I'm likewise intrigued by the action in the VIX, as I see that the fear indicator has continued to slip in my absence, finally finding support just above the 23 level. It is looking more and more like we are reverting to our traditional 20-30 range on the VIX and my interpretation of the past year's excursion out of that range (that it indicated moving into a new, higher range) appears to be in error.

Unfortunately, my charting service appears to have gone on vacation with me and they aren't yet back. What little data I'm able to get is coming from web-based charting, so things are going to be slow for me today, as most of my trading indicators can't be applied to these limited charts. Hopefully I'll have the problem resolved swiftly...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  10:23:27 AM
QQQ $27.57 -0.21% ... fills this morning's gap lower back to the upside here after test of WEEKLY R1 $27.37 and DAILY S1 $27.34 serve support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  10:22:24 AM
The US Dollar Index ramped up to the 98.60 level but is back down to 98.40. QQQ is scoping for new highs, currently 27.60, with the TRINQ at a neutral 1.17, QQV +.77 to 29.53. FVX is down 7.9 bps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  10:16:04 AM
What are volume patterns showing today? Other than the new highs/new lows ratios, which still show more new highs, the patterns are negative. Adv/dec ratios are a .58 for NYSE-traded issues and .70 for Nasdaq-traded issues. Down volume is 2.2 times up volume on the NYSE and 2.08 times up volume on the Nasdaq. These are sustainable levels, but the volume is so light as yet that these numbers might be distorted by an early squaring up of positions. So far, dollar levels, bond levels, VIX levels, and volume patterns line up on the bearish side of trades, but readers considering or involved in bearish trades today might note that oscillators often don't give good signals when a trend is strong. Lately the trend has been strong and has been to the upside, which means more specifically that sell signals might not be particularly trustworthy. Just as I cautioned bulls early, I now caution bears to guard any profits assiduously. It appears to be time for a pullback, but will that pullback be shallow (as recent bullishness predicts) or deep (as longer-term trends predict)? It's only after we see the pullback that we'll know.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  10:15:35 AM
The help wanted index reading reported by Jim represents a 40-year low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  10:14:28 AM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 24.22 +3.10% .... yesterday's vix reading was "inside" that of Tuesday's. Still... this morning's high of 24.41 not above yesterday's high. This may hint that there's still some put sellers out there, most likely selling current month, out-the-money.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  10:09:54 AM
Intl. Paper (IP) $36.01 +0.83% ... reported Q1 EPS of $0.14, which was 2-cents above consensus. As mentioned yesterday, on March 12, IP warned on earnings with guidance of $0.12 saying higher energy prices, bad weather and weakening demand would hurt results. Link

This morning's move shows some bullishness as energy prices fall, winter weather should be abating. What's left?..... demand for product.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  10:08:33 AM
Put to call ratio .69, comprised of equity PCR 0.60, index PCR 1.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  10:05:24 AM
QQQ $27.49 -0.5% ... morning low was $27.30, but 5-minute chart shows QQQ couldn't close below WEEKLY R1 of $27.37 on 5-minute closing basis. Narrow "zone of support" there from the WEEKLY 19.1% retracement of $27.35 to WEEKLY R1 of $27.37. This action hints there is still some type of computer-related buying at that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  10:05:05 AM
It's a little troubling that yesterday the Dow Jones Industrials butted right up against its exponential 200-dma and then fell back this morning, with the 200-ema currently at 8531.96 and the DJI currently at 8450.80. The TRAN has been trading strongly over its 200-ema for several days now, and I've been waiting for the DJI would confirm that strength by also moving over its 200-ema. While the divergence is still there, I can't feel as confident of direction as I would be otherwise. It's all part of my all my ducks in a row philosophy of trading.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/24/03,  10:03:29 AM
The Help Wanted Index for March fell to 38 from 40 in February. This is the lowest number in a year and represents a lack of advertisements for new employees.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  9:57:10 AM
7B announced as overnight repo for a net addition of 3B in liquidity. The President is on now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  9:54:17 AM
Scanning charts this morning, I note that the 60-minute OEX chart shows that the OEX closed at or just over the top line of the rising wedge that has been confining its movements since early March. This morning's drop has taken the OEX back inside that wedge, but the OEX seems to be finding support so far from the 462 level. The bottom of the rising wedge now crosses near 454, a significant area since it marks the 61.8% retracement of the December 2-March 12 move. Hourly 5(3)3 stochastics have begun to cycle down, too, showing bearish divergence, but they're cycling down with the kind of flat angle that sometimes turns right back up again. The 21(3)3's are slanting downward at a shallow angle, but haven't turned down out of overbought territory yet. If they should from this level, they're also showing bearish divergence, but the only strong downturn comes from the RSI, which has turned down sharply. Scanning out to the daily charts shows a bearish kiss of the 5(3)3 stochastics, but no downturn of the slow line as yet, and shows 21(3)3 stochastics that still point straight up, although they're far into territory indicating overbought conditions. I'm not sure the oscillators are showing great commitment to this downturn as yet, although bullish players might be warned by the sharply higher VIX, lower bond yields, lower dollar, and other factors to guard profits today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  9:42:34 AM
While stuck in traffic downtown, I listened to NPR this morning. The news was all about the probable impact of SARS on cities such as Toronto, and on the impact of an AMR bankruptcy on the Dallas area. AMR is the largest employer in this area.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  9:42:04 AM
Good to see you, Linda. Welcome back.

The COMPX found opening support at 1448, currently trading 1453 and trying to decide whether to fill the gap or not. FVX down -8.6 bps doesn't portend much strength for equities, but I see a bounce starting as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/24/03,  9:40:13 AM
Driving back to Dallas from Houston this morning, I hit downtown Dallas during rush-hour traffic, making me grateful for a job that allows me to telecommute. With this work, I'm also grateful for the wonderful emails I receive and the information I glean from readers. I was called out of town suddenly and was unable to access my emails, but I'll get to them as soon as possible today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  9:32:23 AM
FVX -7.2, TRINQ 1.32, QQV +1.19 to 29.95, TICK.NQ +8.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/24/03,  9:27:41 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  9:21:51 AM
28 day repo of 4B, refunding the expiring 28 day repo of 5B for a net drain of 1B on that timeframe. We await the next announcement regarding today's expiring 4B overnight repo.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  9:11:43 AM
FVX now -8.5 bps and gold is up 2.10. QQQ 27.39, NQ3M down 11 to 1102.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  9:10:20 AM
June gold now up 1.60 to 333.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  9:08:51 AM
June gold is up 1 to 332.90, but current order depth is 33 bids at 333.10 to 1 offered at 333.40.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:51:15 AM
Not what I thought it was:

USDA hides and skins export sales highlights in the latest reporting week:

Net sales of 460,000 pieces were 10 percent lower than the previous week and the prior 4-week average. Whole cattle hide sales of 428,500 pieces were primarily for China (164,000 pieces), South Korea (104,500 pieces), Taiwan (46,800 pieces), and Japan (41,000 pieces). Link

There sure are a lot of markets, aren't there?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:48:20 AM
QQQ and the futures are holding up, 27.41, NQ -9 and ES -6.25, but they're buying treasuries bigtime, with FVX -6.3 bps, TNX -5.2 bps and TYX -2.8 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:46:05 AM
Note that the Durable Goods data is preliminary, or "pro forma". The revised data is due May 02. Here's the report: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:39:42 AM
That initial claims reading is the highest in one year.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:38:23 AM
Initial claims jumped to 455,000, surprising by 30K to the upside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:32:50 AM
Durable goods shipments rose 1%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:32:08 AM
Durable goods rose 2%, surprising to the upside.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:26:01 AM
Coming up:

8:30 am: Initial Claims for week of 4/19, prior 442K, consensus 425K

8:30 am: Durable Orders for March, prior -1.6, consensus -0.06%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:24:16 AM
BEIJING, China (CNN) -- A major hospital in Beijing has been placed under quarantine in a bid to curb the spread of the deadly SARS virus in the capital.

The 1,200-bed Beijing University People's Hospital is closing for 10 days, hospital staff told CNN on Thursday, although it was not immediately known how many patients and staff might be affected.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:14:11 AM
Well, that was short lived. NQ3M now down 9.50 to 1104, QQQ 27.42. Looks like I jinxed it.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/24/03,  8:07:48 AM
Despite the fact that it's currently snowing in Montreal, my spirits are aloft, because for the first time in what seems like a long time, the NQ futures contract is down double digits, -10 at 1103.50. QQQ is down 24 cents to 27.39, and the ES June contract is down 6.50 to 911. Most significantly, the US Dollar Index is down to the 98.40 level, which reinforces the interpretation that the bulk of this rally has been fueled by domestic buying, and the sheer velocity of the moves hints of short covering. My underwater put position could be coloring my glasses, but that's how I see it. June gold is up 90 cents to 332.80.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/24/03,  5:34:06 AM
The Market Monitor server will be rebooted in 5 minutes. To continue to receive updates you will need to reconnect your desktop program.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/03,  1:40:18 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/23/03,  1:40:12 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/23/03,  1:39:44 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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