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  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  4:20:57 PM
ESST -4 cents vs est -4 cents, lowered guidance

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  4:17:05 PM
ADBE Raising guidance for 2Q 24-28 cents new est, consensus was 26 cents/

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  4:11:51 PM
AMAT names new President/CEO

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  4:01:45 PM
QQQ $27.48 -0.9% ... I've quickly put the QQQ into its new MONTHLY pivot analysis. Only question is today's close, but should give good idea of potential monthly range.

S2= 24.20, S1= 25.97 , P= 27.01, R1=28.78, R2= 29.82

With bullish % high, would think MONTHLY risistance likely at $28.78 with downside to $25.97.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  4:01:03 PM
That was a pretty sound rejection of the upper trendline of the OEX rising wedge in the last few minutes of trade, accompanied by a big pop in the VIX in the last few minutes, too, but I'd wait until tomorrow's economic numbers before drawing too many conclusions.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/30/200,  4:00:06 PM
Regarding the Mystery Chart, specifically Jeff's 15:44 post: Pardon my ignorance, but what is an "ascending bullish triangle" and where does it exist on that chart? Line connecting the highs is ascending, and line connecting the lows is ascending at a steeper slope. I believe that's called an ascending wedge, and the implications of that pattern are bearish. For further clarification, please refer to Jim's 13:06 post in the Futures Monitor. The article he provided a link to there gives a clear definition (including pictures) of the difference between triangles and wedges. Only interpretation of Jeff's chart that I can come up with is a bearish ascending wedge, just like we currently see in the DOW and SPX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  3:44:03 PM
Mystery chart comment #1 (from 15:37:01) ... Jeff: both bullish and bearish. ascending bullish triangle and bear flag. bias is in the eye of the beholder!

True! Internals are "bull confirmed" at 51.27%. January's high was approximately 52% while March's low was 36%. Still well off the March 2002 high of 64%. Current bullish % is at cycle high. Recent pattern discussed on this index's p/f chart was a "bullish triangle."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  3:38:31 PM
Bearish ascending wedge, Jeff. Could be a bullish cup and handle, but doesn't look "round" enough to me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  3:37:01 PM
Mystery chart bullish or bearish? Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  3:20:17 PM
The put to call ratio is lower at .73, with the equity pcr .68 and index pcr 1.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  3:17:43 PM
QQQ $27.65 -0.28% ... sticking my QQQ's out at $27.70 from bullish day trade of $27.53. (11:51:56 post) for those following along.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  3:12:39 PM
Point well taken about the VIX, VXN, and bullish percents, Jeff. I've always used the VIX for risk control, as you use the bullish percents, and also monitor the bullish percent levels listed in the newsletter. If the VIX is approaching what has been a key inflection point in the past, I'm forewarned to prepare for at least a couple of different scenarios, as I hope readers have been able to do when those inflection levels have been listed in the Monitor. It's great to have so many tools.

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/30/200,  3:11:45 PM
The 3:15 update has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  3:03:09 PM
Saving them for a rainy day, Mark. Here's the update on the formation we've been watching. So far, upper and lower resistance continue to contain the action: Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/30/200,  3:01:45 PM
Awesome Jonathan! Where do you get all these entertaining graphics??

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  2:59:59 PM
The recent push brought the OEX right up to the top of the rising wedge, but not through that line or through to the redrawn upper trendline and daily BB. (See chart depicted in my 11:51 post.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  2:59:10 PM
That "point of recognition" may well be coming soon as the USD and t-bond yields continue to dive: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  2:57:45 PM
US Dollar Index now closing in 97.10. Oh, the humanity.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  2:57:09 PM
Laughing....at/with Jonathan.... spoken like a "true bear" Jonathan.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  2:56:04 PM
QQQ $27.62 -0.39% ... Day trade bulls didn't quite get the pop into the $27.74-$27.76 zone of resistance on the last little rally to $27.73. I'm moving up stop to break-even with this action in the bond market.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  2:56:01 PM
Well put, Jeff. With FVX down 9.6 bps and Cramer bullish on stocks, there may well be no tomorrow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  2:54:27 PM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 2.773% Jonathan has been noting today's action. Bond bulls are gobbling this thing up like there's no tomorrow!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  2:49:47 PM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 23.49 -0.16% ... per today's 01:00 intra-day update, I discuss the VXN.X and NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX). As noted before, I don't "rely" on these two indicators all that much, expecially the VXN.X as it doesn't have the "history" that the VIX.X does. However, I will monitor at inflection points.

Here's the VIX.X chart, which sure lookes like it is due to a rebound (put buying coming in index decline?). Some bears began calling for an SPX reversal at VIX.X 31.00, then at 26 as the VIX.X fell to two prior lows.

What was the "difference" is that the two prior lows in the VIX.X at 26 was when the SPX Bullish % ($BPSPX) was at higher levels of bullish %. Here's the chart of the VIX.X Link

Here's the chart of the S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link . The two "bottoms" in the VIX.X near 26 were in November and December (red B and C on a point and figure chart). Was the bullish % or the VIX.X a better indicator for a reversal coming? I'd say the bullish % was.

Then in March (red 3) on a p/f chart, the "stars aligned" when the VIX.X traded a key 40.00 level, just as the SPX Bullish % (BPSPX) was falling to more "oversold" levels. "Perfect time" to look for institutional naked put selling.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  2:38:51 PM
I've been standing on my head today (actually the higher-tech equivalent, flipping charts vertically) trying to see if this formation on the 60-minute OEX charts qualifies as an inverse or reverse H&S formation. I'm not sure. It's a rough one, and I'm not sure where to place the neckline, either. This is just one possibility: Link I am sure, however, that wherever that neckline is drawn, it's dangerous to draw conclusions ahead of a push above the neckline. In any of the variations I drew, the neckline was pierced at least once by yesterday's long-upper-shadowed candle, so it's not enough to see a movement across the neckline, either. That neckline now crosses somewhere between 469 and 471, depending on how you draw it, and that's a zone at which I expect to see some resistance from the upper line of the rising wedge on the daily OEX chart and from the upper line of the daily BB, too. Don't jump to conclusions too soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  2:33:17 PM
Careful, natural gas bulls: Cramer is bullish on natural gas. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  2:29:44 PM
QQQ is back to descending trendline resistance. FVX is near its low of the day, still, at a 7.5 bp loss. Wonder where the money's coming from? Me too. Dollar down, bonds up, stocks trading water, gold up. It looks like the flats are getting squeezed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  2:21:28 PM
Dow Industrials intra-day chart ... can perhaps see how short-term downward trend and WEEKLY 19.1% retracement came into play this morning. This builds a test of resistance. Link

QQQ bull from $27.54 would want to "understand" OEX/INDU charts and monitor closely should QQQ be back into its "zone of resistance" at $27.74-$27.76, which is day-trader's target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  2:08:30 PM
European markets closed as follow: The FTSE 100 closed flat, down 1.80 points or 0.05%, at 3926; the CAC 40 closed up 12.87 points or 0.44%, at 2953.67; and the DAX appears to have settled up 33.08 points or 1.14%, at 2942.04.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  2:07:10 PM
Intraday opportunity for some bullishness to begin building seen in the OEX chart. Link

Even a QQQ day-trader bull takes some notice. QQQ $27.60 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  1:56:17 PM
Anyone notice how the fibonacci fan on that QQQ chart contained the tops today? Downright spooky, that. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  1:52:47 PM
Failure right at descending trendline resistance depicted in my earlier QQQ chart. Key support is at 27.45, below which I'll do a little dance around my office.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  1:50:48 PM
Scratch..scratch... Dollar weakness, buying in bonds... where's the money coming from to have the indexes holding unchanged?

I caught a "blurb" from CNBC when Maria B. was talking about mutual funds sitting on some $10 billion in cash? I think that was the number.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  1:49:53 PM
Reader W.S. mentions the Russell 2000's relative outperformance today (current .87% gain vs. .31% gain on the Wilshire 5000) as the Russell approaches the important 400 level. On my own charts, I've also noted that the extension of one version of an old H&S pattern cuts across at 406-408, so that might be a level to watch for resistance if the Russell bumps over 400. The daily stochastics are deep in overbought territory, but that doesn't mean the Russell can't push forward a bit more before they roll down again. The 200-ema is below, at 389.75, with the Russell currently at 399.33.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  1:45:36 PM
any thoughts on ASA short to mid-term? Hourly charts and volume looks good to me, but it's taken quite a tumble recently...

This is a very tough one to call. First off, I see no buy signals. The daily shows the oscillators wanting to turn back up (but no signals yet), while the weekly is still clearly in sell mode. Trouble is that price is trading right on the weekly moving averages I follow, making a position here in either direction pretty much of a gamble. But the oscillators continue to say "sell" while hinting at an eventual buy signal. That said, the stock is sitting right on its ascending weekly trendline. Here's what I'm seeing: Link

 
 
  Kent Barton   4/30/200,  1:41:37 PM
Remember last spring, when the healthcare sector exploded to the upside? It might be happening again. The HMO.X health provider index is up a whopping 27% from its February lows, and has tacked on more than 7% since it broke above the 542 resistance region on April 23rd.

Antehm (ATH) looks particuarly well-positioned to take advantage of continued strength in the HMO.X. Shares are trading higher by 2.1% after the company reported earnings this morning. A breakout above the relative high of $69.00 might carry the stock towards the October high of $75.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  1:38:02 PM
Apologies for the black background as I'm working at digging up that setting to change it. Here's what I see short term on a 2 day intraday chart. Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/30/200,  1:12:04 PM
AZO $80.85 (+0.51) In what has been a rather choppy and still rangebound session, our AZO play has made some nice headway so far. Building on yesterday's close over the $80 level, the stock surged this morning to an intraday high of $81.32 before succumbing to the weakening across the broad market. Despite all the major indices now trading in negative territory, AZO is holding onto a fractional gain. While we certainly want to see enough strength to get the stock back over $81 by the close, there's no question that AZO continues to look strong. Of course, we must always prepare for theunexpected, and with more than $5 of unrealized gains from where we initiated coverage, it only makes sense to tighten our stop. Our official stop now moves up to $77.90, just below last Friday's intraday low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  1:06:53 PM
Volume patterns still give no clear guidance. On the Nasdaq, for example, advancers outnumber decliners by almost 100 issues, a rather neutral difference. Down volume is 1.7 times up volume, however, a bearish pattern. That's countered with new highs that vastly outnumber new lows. Total volume is 788 million on the NYSE and 834 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  12:57:33 PM
June gold 339.90. FVX -6.8 bps. Put to call ratio down to .76, next reading due out within 10 minutes. QQV +.55, VXN +.38, VIX +.26. Perhaps reality is returning to option premiums.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   4/30/200,  12:43:25 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

This morning's broad consolidation in share values provided an opportunity to exit or adjust some of the more critical bearish spreads on the watch-list. Positions in that category include: Maxim Integrated Products (NASDAQ:MXIM), Cabot Microelectronics (NASDAQ:CCMP), Quest Diagnostics (NYSE:DGX), Qlogic (NASDAQ:QLGC), McGraw-Hill (NYSE:MHP), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK), and International Game Technology (NYSE:IGT). One of the earnings-related plays that demanded immediate attention was McKesson (NYSE:MCK), which soared over 10% after posting a 43% increase in fiscal fourth-quarter net income on double-digit revenue growth in its pharmaceuticals and information-solutions segments. Needless to say, a timely exit or adjustment in the "bear-call" credit spread was necessary and traders who chose to simply close the position endured a net loss of $1.50-$1.75 (on a simultaneous order basis).

On the upside, the majority of bullish plays are weathering the retreat favorably and a few are even making headway. Getty Images (NYSE:GYI) was a surprise "winner" with a small rally to $34.44 and the upside activity produced an excellent "early-exit" profit in the bullish synthetic position. Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) was also a big mover, trading as high as $42.57 after the issue was upgraded to "overweight" at J.P. Morgan. Our bullish (short put) positions at $35 and $37.50 are at maximum profit. One stock to watch for downside activity is MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) as the company posted first quarter profit that rose slightly from last year, but issued guidance in a broad (potentially lower) range for the current quarter. Since the value of MSTR shares has almost doubled since the beginning of 2003, it's natural for investors to use a "less than stellar" earnings report to take profits in the issue. Our positions at $22.50 and $25 appear safe for the moment, but the stock should be monitored closely in the coming sessions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  12:43:04 PM
I've been watching the Dow Jones Transportation Index for a while, alerted by the divergence between this index and its sister index, the Industrials, in the way they're acting with respect to their 200-ema's. The weekly TRAN chart is interesting, as it shows this week's highs came just underneath the important resistance at about 2420-2440. Link Each time the TRAN has approached this level since last summer, RSI has made a higher high, showing bearish divergence. Of course, neither price nor RSI has yet turned down on the current assault on this level, so we can't be sure that the bearish divergence will continue. The weekly 5(3)3 stochastics are deep into territory indicating overbought conditions and have not yet made a bearish kiss, so the assault on that resistance could continue. However, these stochs may hint at a slight flattening. Weekly oscillators can prove slow to turn, so that's why I watch the faster-moving 5(3)3's on the weekly charts. A study of the 10-week and 30-week weekly MA's shows the critical nature of current action, too, with the 10-week now attempting but not yet having made, a bullish crossover of the 30-week. My best guess? Since there's definitely stochastic bearish divergence on the daily charts (not shown), I would guess that it will be difficult for the TRAN to sustain prices above that resistance and might even turn down from below that resistance, and might even do it rather soon based on daily chart evidence.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  12:37:19 PM
New bear market low for the USD index at 97.20.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  12:23:46 PM
FVX is lower still at a 7.1 bps loss on the day. QQQ is back to the breakout point from the descending wedge discussed earlier, 27.50-.55 currently, with the TRINQ reading 1.75, TICK.NQ +31, QQV +.19 at 28.19.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  12:16:56 PM
Currently at 333.59, the SOX tests its 200-ema at 333.40 again. Daily oscillator evidence is mixed as yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  12:10:06 PM
Al Green takes his leave as June gold prints 339.50, up 5.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  12:05:19 PM
Greenspan Testimony ends Benchmarking .... DOW= 8,462, SPX= 915, OEX= 464.3, NDX= 1,106.5, QQQ= $27.51, $TNX.X= 3.878%, $DXOOY= 97.25 (30-MINUTE DELAY)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  12:03:23 PM
QQQ intra-day chart on 5-minute interval. Screen capture at 11:55 PM EST Link

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   4/30/200,  11:59:30 AM
Covered-Call Portfolio Regret!
United Online (NASDAQ:UNTD), a covered-call portfolio position (long stock, short the MAY-$17.50 call, cost basis $16.43), celebrated today's earnings report by rallying over $2.00. Sigh. Investors could roll the position up and/or forward in attempt to increase the potential return. Of course, professional traders generally frown on putting more money on the table (increasing the cost basis).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  11:51:56 AM
QQQ $27.53 -0.68% ... per last night's Index Trader Wrap, will note today's trade in the QQQ is follows. Session low of $27.43 fell into $27.40-WEEKLY R1 $27.51 zone of support, and morning "rebound" traded smack-dab into $27.74-$27.76 "zone of resistance from the MONTHLY/Weekly retracements. I'll put an intra-day chart together and post in a minute.

Decent day trade long here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  11:51:39 AM
Here's how the OEX has been acting with respect to the rising wedge on the daily chart: Link Note that I've drawn two possible upper lines--the thick green line and the thinner lavender one. I don't like to redraw trendlines after I've first drawn them, because there's just too much temptation to redraw them to fit a preferred scenario rather than the actual one, but I've included the lavender one as it may have some validity. It now has three touchpoints to define it. In addition, the upper BB now lies along that lavender line. Therefore, for my own purposes, I wouldn't consider an OEX bounce an upside breakout until the OEX closed above that lavender line. Whether the breakout is to be an upside or a downside one, it should happen soon, perhaps even this week or early next week, as the wedge is narrowing down to its apex. On the weekly chart (not shown), that apex narrows right into the long-term descending trendline.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   4/30/200,  11:50:04 AM
Covered-Call Portfolio Alert
Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR), a covered-call portfolio position (long stock, short May-$15 call, cost basis $14.33), is under some pressure after reporting earnings on Monday. The company posted higher 1st-quarter profit than a year ago and beat Wall Street estimates on strong sales. A pullback towards support near $15 is likely and the position should be monitored closely.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  11:48:15 AM
FVX printing new lows for the day, currently -6.1 bps- bodes ill for QQQ and the indices.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  11:41:22 AM
Rydex URSA (RYURX) $12.01 $-0.03 in yesterday's trade. Still holding support on our technique of 1% box sizes above $11.93. This monitoring is per this past weekend's "Ask the Analyst" column. Link

Here's the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) chart on similar 1% box size. Link

The RYURX is a "bear fund" that looks to trade exact INVERSE of the S&P 500.

Hmmmm... the "first" pullback in the SPX 1% chart was 5-boxes, or 5%. The second pullback was 3-boxes or 3%. OK, anything more than a 3% (give 0.99% room) might be a sign of weakness? The last two advances have both been 6%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  11:37:00 AM
Representative from Massachusetts mocking Al Green for the markets' being down since he began speaking, says "Just keep goin'."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  11:36:02 AM
The USD has printed a new bear market low below 97.40, is there any way to play this using stock/options?

If you believe the dollar is going lower, there are commodities and gold and XAU options that can be traded long. If you believe it's going to bounce, those same vehicles can be traded short. Reader William has mentioned inverse dollar funds Prudent Safe Harbor Fund PSAFX and American Century International Bond Fund BEGBX, but I have not looked into these and know nothing about them. Hope that helps.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  11:35:46 AM
I'm not suggesting any trades here, but COF is on my personal watch list. Shares have broken out today above multi-month resistance in the $40-41 area.

It now has an opportunity to try and fill the gap to $50. A pull back and bounce at $40 would certainly pique my interest.

 
 
  Mark Wnetrzak   4/30/200,  11:35:24 AM
Covered-Call Watch List
Early exit candidate Infineon Technologies (NYSE:IFX), a covered-call position (long stock, short May-$7.50, cost basis $7.17, continues to weaken as it tests near-term support after the company announced that it is launching a subordinated convertible bond issue through its Dutch subsidiary.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  11:34:24 AM
It's got to be just me .... It's very early yet, but interesting (I've seen this before too), that just when the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) reaches a reading of 70% or higher, COMPX=-0.24%, NDX= -0.41% lags a move higher.

I probably can't back this up with any type of "article" from past observations, and like I say, "it's probably just me," but it just seems that when a bullish % reaches 70% or higher, there's a lag for a day or two. Almost as if institutions themselves begin making some "risk" assessments in their inventories.

In this morning's 09:00 Update, I discussed how bulls should be looking to take or protect some profits in bullish trades they hold. I KNOW for a fact that OI had profiled eBay as bullish months ago. (traders that don't use stops on their options may still hold long) and this is a stock that has achieved it bullish vertical count of $91 and its triple-top buy signal (from $71) objective from Professor Davis' study (profitable 87.9% of the time for an average gain of 28.7% in 6.8 months). A 28.7% gain from $71 was 91.33 (hint... bullish count $91, pattern probability $91.33). Link

This is an ideal candidate, consider NASDAQ-100 Bullish %, to snug a stop up under $88 on, or write an IN-THE-MONEY call on if holding the underlying stock.

"Risk to trend" is $73.00. Here's a chart of ebay, where I'm going to remove some noise, with a $5 box scale. Link

Hints that a "normal" pullback and good bullish entry would be $75. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  11:22:20 AM
Volume patterns haven't been much help this morning, with those patterns now showing more advancers than decliners on NYSE-traded issues, and only 20 more declining than advancing issues on Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is slightly ahead on the NYSE and down volume is slightly ahead on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 458 million shares on the NYSE and 531 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  11:12:57 AM
It didn't take long for the OEX to push toward the top of that rising wedge again. I'd barely typed my last entry before the climb began. Depending on how you draw the line, it crosses somewhere around 468.50, with the top BB on the daily chart now crossing at 471.37. It was that top BB that actually stopped the OEX's advance yesterday. I'd like to see the 5(3)3 hourly stochastics straighten back out and climb back toward overbought levels and then cycle down in concert with the hourly 21(3)3's and, hopefully, the daily stochastics, so that all are moving in concert rather than in opposition to each other. That kind of concerted action may not happen, though, without more probing of important overhead levels.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  11:11:30 AM
The USD has printed a new bear market low below 97.40.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  11:09:35 AM
Gosh, I wish I had. Next time you have four hours to spend rolling dice, let me know. ;-)

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  11:08:16 AM
James, have you been playing "Axis and Allies" again?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  11:07:27 AM
Trendline resistance is approaching at 27.80 while the bull wedge breakout targets 27.90. FVX is finally pulling off its lows, down 3.8 bps, TRINQ still 1.31, QQV +.17 to 28.17 and the TICK.NQ +610, a very large reading for that breadth indicator.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  11:05:50 AM
NATO may not survive another couple of years at this rate.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  11:05:19 AM
True. but he's trying to enlist the help of several EU countries.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  11:04:40 AM
No French army will EVER be equal to the U.S. This man is hallucinating.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  11:02:36 AM
Does anyone want to speculate on how France's Jacques Chirac's new push to build a new European army, an effort to become an "equal" with the U.S., will affect global markets?

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  10:57:03 AM
Mark, I did go look at your chart and it does paint a very clear picture. I would upload it to the monitor but I think the text with it is critical. Everyone should read the article. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  10:55:08 AM
TYC now trading at $14.82

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  10:53:07 AM
Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 395.83 +0.01% ... just edging positive here. The 400 level is a major near-term level of resistance for these mid-caps Link and for those market theorist's that look for small caps to see greater growth from an economic recovery cycle, then 415 becomes your key level.

Was listening to "Business for Breakfast" this morning on the way into work (investment oriented radio show here in Denver) and they had a fundamental market analyst on. He preferred the larger cap OEX stocks for bullishness on economic recovery ahead of the smaller to mid-caps, because debt financing is very tight for the smaller company's right now, but more available for the larger caps with stronger balance sheets.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  10:49:46 AM
now that's funny, Jim.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/30/200,  10:49:20 AM
Exactly Jeff! I was a bit slow in coming to understand the significance of Bullish percent readings. But now that I've "seen the light" I understand that I can largely ignore the noise coming from the economist/analyst camp and just focus on supply/demand issues. I don't know if you saw the BP Sharp Chart I put in my article on Monday, but that chart really paints a clear picture, showing how consistently BP trends from one extreme to the other once it turns.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  10:48:56 AM
FYI: Colin Powell is speaking on the War on Terror right now. Sounds like he's recounting the U.S.'s successes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  10:48:35 AM
You know, I'm still not sure this market knows quite where it wants to go today. On the OEX (and SPX) 60-minute charts, I'm watching bullish-looking candles, albeit small ones, form. OEX prices hold just above support and 5(3)3 and 21(3)3 hourly stochastics roll down. People have different opinions about this, but consolidation while stochastics roll down appears a somewhat bullish development to me, and this might portend another try for the top of that rising wedge again sometime today. RSI is hinging up. On the daily charts, it's the opposite, with RSI turning down slightly and 5(3)3 daily stochastics turning up, but from nearly overbought levels.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  10:46:56 AM
Not so sure about their timing but a couple of Merrill Lynch analysts have gotten really bullish on retailers. Here is their list of favorites for the next few quarters (to the next few years).

AutoZone (AZO), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Best Buy (BBY), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Gart Sports (GRTS), Kirkland's (KIRK), Kohl's (KSS), Lowe's Cos (LOW), Michaels Stores (MIK), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Petco (PETC).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  10:46:19 AM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 5,127.64 +0.2% ... first major index to turn green. Up just fractionally here. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  10:41:58 AM
Mark My "but Ricky" comment wasn't directed at you, but all of the various "newsletters" that I've had sent to my e-mail regarding "don't buy it" for several months.

Haven't we all (by now anyway) seen good rallies take place when the bullish % turn higher and despite a week of weakness, have still seen the internals generate buy signals? Then... as if by "magic" a new relative high in the rebound continues?

I've just gotten a bit "up to here" with some of these economic forecasts. I don't think there's a SINGLE economist that has a grasp on anything. I'm not an economist, and over the years enjoy reading the various thoughts of what will happen, with the best test trying to trade what the market is doing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:40:32 AM
US Dollar Index "live" chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:38:29 AM
Looks like an upside breakout from that bullish descending wedge on the intraday Qubes- implied target 27.90 if it completes.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  10:38:24 AM
hmmm.. it's a bit too cheap to play options on but ERICY announced earnings yesterday. Their Q1 loss was wider than expected. Still the stock price rallied strongly on its aggressive cost-cutting campaign and news they would cut another 7,000 jobs. Shares gapped up on Tuesday from $7.45 (Monday's close) to end yesterday at $8.89.

Salomon Smith Barney came out today and essentially said "sell now" because thing aren't getting better for ERICY. So far no one's listening to SSB, as shares are still in the green and above $9.00 (albeit not by much).

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/30/200,  10:35:48 AM
Just calling 'em the way I see 'em, Jim.

On a more serious note, (Jeff) brings up a VERY important point that I hope isn't lost on anyone. You see, until something changes in the underlying economic picture (which Uncle Alan just put the kabosh on), we remain mired in an extremely overvalued bear market. The media will assign whatever meaning/blame they can find to each minor and major move. But when it comes right down it, the only rational way to make any sense of this market is through application of tools like bullish percent, which constantly measure risk to the upside and risk to the downside. Long on the reversals from oversold extremes and short on the reversals from overbought, will do the best job of allowing us to capture gains from the current range. The chop in the middle can be very treacherous. Those of you that follow Jeff's daily commentary on Bullish Percent and its relation to market action know how useful and important it is. Let me encourage the rest of you that getting up to speed on Bullish Percent would be time well spent, especially as we wind down the latest bullish move and get ready to go the other way.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:34:51 AM
The US Dollar Index is headed lower still, into the high 97.40's, possibly a new bear market low. Meanwhile, the put to call ratio is up to 1.03. Any strength in the indices today is going to be domestic buying. Short covering would be a decent candidate, or fundies for the EOM ops, the PPT- take your pick- but it clearly won't be foreigners until the USD index reverses its slide.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  10:34:05 AM
With total volume of 252 million shares on the NYSE and 341 million on the Nasdaq, decliners now pull ahead of advancers, and down volume now pulls ahead of up volume. These volume patterns are bearish and sustainable, but are not so strong that they couldn't swing to the bullish side, either. New highs continue to dominate new lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  10:29:07 AM
Tyco (TYC) Has been halted for trade this morning. Company announces here that it will report later today a loss from continuing operations of $0.23 for Q2 (consensus was +$0.32), which includes $0.55 in after-tax net charges related to primarily non-cash adjustments arising out of the company's internal audits and detailed controls and operating reviews, a change to an accelerated amortization method for its ADT dealer program account assets, and changes made for the way it accounts for the connect fee associated with ADT's dealer program. The company added that Q2 revenues were $9 billion, and under the company's prior definition, free cash flow was $1.1 billion.

 
 
  John Beyer   4/30/200,  10:28:20 AM
Well said, Jonathan, my sentiments exactly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:27:35 AM
Good eye, Jim. Bullish descending wedge on QQQ projecting to 27.90ish. The lower trendline should provide support in the 27.45 area.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:25:04 AM
Al Green can jam the markets all he wants, but the economy is bigger than that and far more difficult to manage and manipulate. For all of the Fed's hysterical monetary inflation, all he's accomplished is the inflation of first a stock market bubble and then a mortgage credit bubble. The economy keeps getting weaker. For those hundreds of thousands each week losing their jobs, Al Green's words must be sounding very thin indeed.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  10:23:32 AM
A telling quote from Greenspan's comments:

"Unfortunately, the future path of the economy is likely to come into sharper focus only gradually. In the interim, we need to remain mindful of the possibility that lingering business caution could be an impediment to improved economic performance. "

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  10:22:48 AM
But Ricky..... the S&P 500 has risen 114 points in the past couple of months and lots of people have been saying there will be no recovery in the second half of the year. Ethel and I could have made lots of money to help fund little Ricky's college education during part of that rise!" Especially when the bullish % charts all reversed up from lower levels of bullish risk.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  10:22:18 AM
Mark, that was very funny!!! Slimfast! (LOL)

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  10:20:39 AM
James, Most felt we were going to get one in 2001 and of course 2002 and almost all hope it will happen in 2004. Based on the PMI, NY NAPM and potentially the ISM tomorrow that outlook may begin to suffer from a "lack of visibility" as they say. The best real market mover we have seen is the new 52-week low in oil yesterday at $25.24. This "tax cut" for all businesses will have more impact than all the real tax cuts currently being discussed. This factor alone should provide a rebound in real profits even if demand remains flat. 2003? Maybe. 2004 of course, it is an election year. (grin)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:19:53 AM
I hope you're right, Mark. The mortgage data this morning shows yet another week of contraction. My own thought is that this will tighten the supply of money, which should choke off this rally at its source. But, it's all speculation from my little soapbox.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  10:19:16 AM
I know Linda has already mentioned that gold (GC03M, June contracts) is up $4.20, but today's breakout from ths recent six-day consolidation is being held back at the $340 level and its simple 50-dma. Current price is $338.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   4/30/200,  10:17:58 AM
James: In my best Ricky Ricardo voice..."Lucy, I told you!" This garbage about a 2nd-half recovery is the underlying premise behind the recent rally in the broad markets. As we discussed on Monday, that dog won't hunt. Now that Greenspan is also casting doubt on the likelihood of that fabled recovery, more investors will see that not only does the emperor have no clothes, but he really needs to go on the Slimfast plan.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  10:17:47 AM
10-year Treasury ($UST) yesterday's trade at $105.75 was enough to see a 3-box reversal back lower. Link (remember, this is a basket of 10-year bonds at various maturities).

We've been using this chart and comparing the major equity indexes relative strength against it, to signal further/continuing asset allocations. Here's a chart of the SPX vs. the $UST. Please note, the $UST is calculated after each day's trade, and not "dynamic" during the day.Link

As you can see, the SPX is showing good relative strength versus the 10-year bond's PRICE. There are other securities, along with cash assets, that can flow into the SPX. However, the benchmark 10-year is a general bond indicator that is deemed HIGHLY safe and liquid, which is a main "competitor" for stocks.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:16:54 AM
Peter, your inbox is full. Here's the Link you requested

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  10:13:43 AM
So far, the OEX has been able to mostly maintain support above that 463.15-.25 zone this morning, and the 60-minute stochastics keep kissing and unkissing. RSI turns down. There's a possibility that prices could make another attempt at higher levels while the stochs turn back up, but as yet it's difficult to determine the likelihood of that happening. Volume patterns aren't much help as yet, because advancers and decliners are fairly evenly matched.

 
 
  James Brown   4/30/200,  10:12:21 AM
Say it ain't so, Jim. You mean we're not going to get a second half recovery again? (see his FuturesMonitor post)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:09:46 AM
Yields are headed seriously south, with FVX -3 bps now, TNX -2.2 bps and TYX -2.6 bps after being in the green all morning. QQQ 27.58. Gold has given up some of its gains, up 3.3 at 337.30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  10:06:20 AM
Good question ... Jeff: How will next week treasury refinancing affect yields

One would think with record supply coming to the market, it would find some selling in Treasuries. However, I would have also thought Treasuries would have sold off BEFORE to make room for the new supply.

This hasn't been happening, and what has had me more "eager" to book gains when I've had them in bullish index trades (I've gotten out of some good trades too early) as I haven't been seeing the higher YIELDS I thought we should see with all this supply coming to market.

Treasuries finding buying even on today's record auction announcements.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  10:03:04 AM
Sixty-minute OEX stochastics are trying to roll down again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:02:05 AM
Put to call ratio .93 comprised of equity pcr 0.77, index 1.89.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  10:00:48 AM
The preliminary headlines from Al Green's prepared remarks do not look particularly bullish to me:

GREENSPAN OPTIMISTIC BUT ON GUARD

GREENSPAN: TIMING, EXTENT OF REBOUND UNCERTAIN

GREENSPAN: FURTHER DISINFLATION WOULD BE 'UNWELCOME'

GREENSPAN WORRIED ABOUT BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, JOBS

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  9:59:10 AM
Chicago PMI for April comes in at 47.6, which was below consensus of 48.5. Levels below 50 signal contraction, while levels above 50 represent expansion.

Not a good number from the regional industrial sector surrounding the Chicago area.

Upside was found as production lifted back above 50 to 51, but the overall data doesn't bode well for tomorrow's April ISM Index, where economist's forecast a reading of 47.0, which would be a "frog's hair" better than March's 46.2.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  9:58:33 AM
A 5.5B overnight repo has just been announced. With no expiries today, that's a net addition.

 
 
  Jim Brown   4/30/200,  9:57:01 AM
PMI 47.6 compared to estimates of 48.5 and prior month of 48.4

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/30/200,  9:53:29 AM
Geron (GERN) Update $4.80 +3.2% ... Our image uploader is working again, and I've been wanting to show this chart Link with MONTHLY and WEEKLY retracement. For further bullishness, I'd really need to see a CLOSE above the $5.18 level at this point.

A trade at $5.50 would be even nicer, as this would be a "bull triangle" pattern. Link Traders should be able to "tie in" the p/f chart, with the levels from WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot analysis retracement and identification of "zones."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  9:39:39 AM
Both Al Green and the President are scheduled to speak today. For those who believe that the markets are "supported" from time to time, today would be a likely day for it given these "command" appearances.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  9:37:44 AM
On the Futures Monitor, Jim is warning of the dangers of taking positions ahead of the 10:00 economic numbers/Greenspan speech. I would concur in cautioning about taking positions ahead of those potentially market-moving events.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  9:34:32 AM
The SOX hovers just over its 200-ema again today, with that average at 333.61, and with the SOX low at 334.90. Currently, the SOX is at 335.44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  9:31:36 AM
Through Monday and Tuesday, the OEX repeatedly found support in the 463.15-.25 zone. Let's see if that zone provides support today. On the 60-minute charts, 5(3)3 stochastics still have room to go up, but may be trying to roll over again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  9:31:08 AM
Some selling towards the bottom of yesterday's range, QQQ currently 27.55. TRINQ 1.16, just north of neutral. TICK.NQ -128, QQV +.53 to 28.53, FVX +1.1 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  9:25:53 AM
Mortgage data this AM:

Purchase Index decreased to 356.0 from 359.9 the previous week. (1%)

Refinance Index decreased to 5092.0 from 5103.9 one week earlier. (0.25%)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  8:48:48 AM
Light selling in treasuries despite the absence of strength in the USD index. FVX +1.1 bps, TNX +.8 bps and TYX +1 bp.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  8:44:36 AM
I listened to Cramer's radio show once. During the segment "Lets make some money tomorrow" he recommended LLL Communications. The stock traded at $46. (JAN 03). By March it was $36. It has since risen to $44. He is another contrarian indicator.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  8:17:20 AM
Data due: 10:00 am: Chicago PMI for April, prior 48.4, consensus 48.5

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  8:15:40 AM
June Gold is currently up 4.80 to 338.80.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/30/200,  8:12:05 AM
The US Dollar Index got creamed last night, as is currently trading right long term support identified in my entry yesterday morning, 97.60. NQ futures are flat at 116.50, ES -.5 to 915.50, and YM -15 at 8462. The super-duper consumer confidence number obviously doesn't carry much weight with foreign holders of US dollars, if the drastic selloff of nearly 2% in one day is any indication. One last thing: James Cramer, a man whose opinion causes me hives, was pontificating last night about another 1000 points of upside from here, now. Who cares which index. Mr. Cramer recommended buying gold for the first time when it printed 380 or 385/oz, nailing the top to within one or two days. Last night's call combined with the no holds-barred selling in the USD Index gives me comfort that we may have seen the high for this rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   4/30/200,  7:09:11 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened up 135.56 points, to 7752.16, in Wednesday's trading. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry revealed that March Japanese industrial production fell 0.2%, rather than rising the expected 1.3%, but that number was ignored with focus turned to other factors. Sony saw a surfeit of buyers after seeing a delayed opening on Monday, the last day the Nikkei traded before Tuesday's holiday, due to an imbalance of sellers. Other exporters also gained on the hopes that the higher-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence number predicted an increase in spending in the U.S. Banks gained on hopes that Japanese emergency financial legislation might help foundering banks. Those hopes turned out to be well founded, as the BOJ announced plans to infuse money into the banking system. Again, more troubling news was ignored as the BOJ also mentioned uncertain recoveries in the U.S. and Europe and the risk of SARS as potential negative impacts on the Japanese economy. The Nikkei closed up 223.54 points or 2.94%, at 7831.42.

Other Asian markets were mixed, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng dropping 0.3% and South Korea's Kospi climbing 0.3%. Hong Kong's drop may have been due in part to the 1.1% drop in Hutchison Whampoa when the deal with Singapore Technologies Telemedia to buy Global Crossing appeared to fall through. Although new SARS infections have decreased, some patients have relapsed, adding a new worry. The SARS situation in China continues to worsen. Many Asian chip-related companies rose, however, with Taiwan Semiconductor climbing 6% on news it expects a recovery in the second quarter, despite experiencing a 34% drop in Q1 profit, and with Samsung Electronics rising 1.5% on news that it will devote a portion of its planned capital spending to expand production of memory chips and other semiconductors.

As of this writing, European markets are mixed, but many appears to be edging higher. While Japanese banks were gaining due to the announced BOJ policy, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch downgrades of Dutch bank ABM Amro led to this bank's decline in early European trading and to declines in other European banking stocks. The dollar fell against the euro, reflecting concerns many have about a U.S. recovery, with those concerns likely dampening enthusiasm earlier today as European markets await U.S. economic numbers along with U.S. markets. However, the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX have been climbing as I wrote this report. While the FTSE 100 was down 10-12 points when I began writing, it's now up 0.90 points or 0.02%, to 3928.70. The CAC 40 is up 30.62 points or 1.04%, to 2971.72; and the DAX is up 32.34 points or 1.11%, to 2941.30.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   4/30/200,  6:12:14 AM
The Market Monitor Server will be rebooted in 5 minutes. You will need to reconnect your desktop monitor to continue to receive updates.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   4/29/200,  1:49:09 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   4/29/200,  1:48:52 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  James Brown   4/29/200,  1:48:42 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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