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  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  6:05:38 PM
Oooooooeeeee! NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) rises 4%, so a net gain of 4 stocks to new PnF buy signals. Bullish % now at 84%! How much higher can it go? 100% is the max, and the November 1999 high reading of 92% may not be out of the realm of possibility. At some point it will reverse, but I'm still waiting and watching my 1/2 bearish position in the Sept. QQQ puts take a hit. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  5:44:37 PM
Per Jim's 17:03:26 post .... I (Jeff Bailey) am not a "waver," but discussion regarding SPX top to complete itself Monday morning between 971-977, might look at the DAILY Matrix and see DAILY R2 at 975.28, or WEEKLY R1 976.9.

This "wave" stuff has my attention tonight. Especially as it relates to Wednesday's Index Trader Wrap and SPX chart where the thought crossed our mind of a "blow off" type of move in the PnF chart. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  5:35:45 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for next week. Note: WEEKLY and MONTHLY levels have changed. Link

Pink levels = Dow DAILY S2 and WEEKLY S1. Main observation here, more with WEEKLY S1, is that a trade at 8,637 would have the Dow's PnF chart giving a double-bottom sell signal. Link

Pink Level = S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) at MONTHLY R1 may tie in with our reverse head/shoulder pattern objective discussed last couple of weeks.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  3:49:42 PM
I've been searching my OEX 60-minute charts. I thought I remembered another orthodox broadening top that set up on the OEX 60-minute charts during March, perhaps breaking out to the upside rather than the downside as usually happens. I can't find, it though, so perhaps I'm imagining it. Anyway, here's what's happened to the formation that I first posted this morning: Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  3:47:05 PM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 73.36 +0.3% ... Here is the chart I wanted to show in the 03:15 update. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  3:45:47 PM
03:15 Update posted ... is late as I tried and tried to upload the Gold/Silver Index Chart. I will try and upload that chart here in the market monitor in a minute. Heres the Link to the update.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  3:36:43 PM
Put to call ratio at its high of the day, .68. TRINQ .60, TICK.NQ +286, QQV -.28. Looks from here like there's going to be a push higher into the close.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  3:35:16 PM
Volume is currently 1.3 billion on the NYSE and 1.9 billion on the Nasdaq. All volume patterns remain strongly bullish.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  3:22:40 PM
Pretending the day has already ended (a dangerous pretension when anything can happen in the last 40 minutes of trading) I see that both the weekly and the daily OEX candles have snugged up underneath their respective Bollinger bands. Both BB's slant up, however, so it's possible for the candles to follow those BB's up, as they've been doing the last few days on the OEX.

If this were the end of the day already, today's OEX candle would again show a candle with a shadow that penetrated the upper BB, but with a body that fell back below that BB. This will be the third day in a row when this has happened. Those shadow penetrations of the upper BB issue a warning that the OEX is due for a pullback--perhaps only a shallow one down to the 20-dma that forms the midline average of the BB's--but they don't predict when that will occur. The weekly candle, however, is a bullish white candle with little or no upper or lower shadows. It's always possible that this could be a last engulfing candle, especially given the relatively larger volume this week and the nearby massive resistance, but that remains to be seen. For now, it appears bullish.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  3:12:11 PM
My guess? It runs up to the just above the necklines, fakes everyone into a bullish frenzy, and then sells off in a waterfall.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  3:08:48 PM
On the DAX--the ECB meets next week and there's speculation that recent economic numbers will make it possible for the ECB to cut rates. Maybe, instead, they believed Bush's statement about supporting a strong dollar (helping European exporters), despite Snow's recent statements. Many mention, however, the optimism engendered by the performance in our markets.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  3:03:05 PM
FVX closed down at a 1.7 bp gain. Despite all the bullish action, buying returned to treasuries toward the end of the day. QQV is still green (kinda) at +.04, VXN +.21. June gold is trading in the mid 361's, with HUI down 1.08, XAU -.3. The put to call ratio is climbing to .65, its high of the day, and I'm amazed that there isn't higher put volume. The 960-65 SPX head and shoulders neckline is one of those well-advertised numbers, right up there with SPX 775 last year. If I was bullish, I'd be hedging my longs with puts. As a bear, puts look good at current levels. Perhaps market makers are shorting calls instead? Why would they, given how low the VIX, VXN and QQV are? I'm confused, but it looks like a great deal of certainty on the part of bulls that these overhead long term resistance lines are going to fail.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  2:56:38 PM
OEX tests 482.90 again.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:40:35 PM
National Terror Threat Level lowered to "yellow" from "orange." (FOX News report)

This perhaps explains the "bid" in last 10-minutes.

Story Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  2:40:09 PM
FVX dipped a little lower on that push, FVX +2.9 bps, while QQV barely budged and is now up .06. I reiterate, if this is a distribution top, then the specialists deserve a golfclap, if not a standing 'O'.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:36:24 PM
OEX 484.52 +1.48% ... back at WEEKLY R2 of 484.52. This was the morning resistance in OEX, which couldn't see a 5-minute bar close above this level. Having some trouble again. DOW/SPX need it to build strength from the "bottom."

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  2:35:51 PM
Many alerts I had set--NDX 1200, OEX 484.50, SPX 965--all went off at the same time.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  2:35:05 PM
Day high of 1202.50 NQ3M, 966 ES3M.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:34:43 PM
SPX 965.14 +1.63% ... "follows" Dow and breaks to session high.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:33:36 PM
Upside Alert Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,863.7 +1.75% making its move above yesterday's highs. 8,900 is next level.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:32:44 PM
CBOE Internet (INX.X) 136.40 (unch) ... oscillates back to unchanged after finding intra-day support at 135.80, which was just off the morning low of 135.60.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:30:14 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 302.22 +1.76% ... testing session high of 302.28 right here. This may be the sector to get the indexes going to the close. Again.... sooooo close to an intra-day breakout, yet fractions seem to be "the longest yard," in today's trade.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:27:43 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,851 +1.61% ... afternoon session high here.... "I think I can , I think I can" said the train.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  2:27:38 PM
NQ at 1198 is 2.5 points from the day high, ES 1.25 points. The TRINQ has dropped to .70, QQV -.31 and TICK.NQ risen to +209.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:26:17 PM
Cima Labs (CIMA) $28.92 +7.5% ... stock surges from $27.50 to $29.25 in last 30-minutes of trade. Looks a bit like a short-squeeze type of trade taking place. Stock has been on the move in recent 4-days from $24.00 consolidation.Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:22:10 PM
Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) $28.75 -9.81% ... stock sharply off a 52-week high set yesterday on some trader talk/RUMOR that company could lose its Sears contract once Sears sells its credit business. Some say though, that this "thinking" isn't necessarily "new news" and MARKET has been aware of this and that new owner of Sears' credit business will most likely put contract up for bidding. Still.... Sears has not actually sold their credit business at this point, som a great deal of speculation put into today's trade.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  2:21:43 PM
If the OEX can maintain 480-481 into the close, I wouldn't be surprised to see another run-up on Monday morning, perhaps to the top of the orthodox broadening top seen in the chart linked to my 11:53 post. Pring's notation mentions three tops in the typical broadening formation, and we've seen three, but not all formations play out as they commonly do.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:15:32 PM
SPX 962.43 +1.24% .... has been sitting right here at WEEKLY R2 for 20-minutes. Something has to give.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  2:15:08 PM
We have a tidy flatline across the indicators, with FVX +3.2 bps, TRINQ .79, QQV -.1 and TICK.NQ +134. I see nothing to make me think that equities will see any significant downside today, what with end of month window dressing by the fun(d) managers and an apparently endless capacity to hold price steady following a flagpole rally. A close at current levels puts us within easy opening gap distance of a breakout above the monthly resistance lines. I cannot fathom what would justify such a move, but the tape is the tape.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  2:04:32 PM
SONY (SNE, 25.36, up .55): Sony extended its gains in the Nikkei last night and is doing so in U.S. trading today, too. It still trades within the potential bear-flag pattern I showed in yesterday's Monitor post and still heads for the bottom of the April 23-to-April 24 gap down from 30.91 to 28.70. The 50-dma slopes strongly down and may meet the candles about the time Sony approaches that gap. That's the bearish case. Here's the bullish case: Daily MACD now appears strong and RSI slants up strongly, although it's now nearing levels indicating overbought conditions. Volume has picked up in the last several days as Sony rises, as bullish traders would hope to see happen.

Bullish and bearish SNE traders alike should watch that potential bear-flag pattern and the gap that it's fast approaching. It can be assumed that 30 will provide resistance, also as will the top of that gap at 30.91. Bullish traders should be considering how they'll deal with those levels if SNE should rise that high. Doing so will require either an upside break out of the potential bear-flag pattern or else an intervening cycle down and another push up from within the channel.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  2:01:38 PM
QQQ $29.67 +1.22% ... back at DAILY R1 of $29.69, but have yet to see 5-minute volume much above 500,000 in last hour or so.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  1:57:34 PM
Bulls defend INDU 8,824.... now 8,845 decent little move right back up to that intra-day downward trend.

Hmmm... it's almost as if traders are trying to jerk things around, get a feel for interest from either bulls or bears and see just who wants to crack.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  1:56:31 PM
Looks like INTC was a headfake after all.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  1:55:19 PM
Networking Index (NWX.X) 191.84 (unch) ... seeing another sector now approach the "red" level. Inch by inch, starting to see some weakness.

Networking, Internet Infrastructure Holdrs?

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  1:53:23 PM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 135.83 -0.42% .... session low has been 135.59. If that low is taken out, could be like a "plug pull" in the bathtub on today's otherwise bullish session.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  1:51:18 PM
If it doesn't turn out to be a headfake or "throwunder", INTC appears to be breaking out of a descending triangle with horizontal support at 20.69.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  1:49:42 PM
OEX 483 was broken and retested. When that test failed, the OEX began this decline. Now next support will be tested. I'd watch 481.50-481.90 for slight support (historical, 130-pma on five-minute chart) and then 481-481.20. (As I typed, the OEX hit 481.94 and then began to move up again. Markets are still testing whether support or resistance will hold.)

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  1:46:40 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,823 -1.29% ... suddenly alert to weakness as Dow takes a 10-poin hit in last 5-minutes and now testing WEEKLY R2 of 8,824.

Test for the bulls here. They couldn't get the breakout when they had the chance at our intra-day downward trend so they'll have to defend here.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  1:43:20 PM
01:00 Internals

NYSE= Vol. 864m A/D 23:8 NH/NL 273:5 (A/D unchanged from 12:00)

NASDAQ= Vol 1.33b A/D 20:10 NH/NL 208:8 (A/D still seeing more deciners from 11:00 to 12:00 and now 01:00; advancers steady at 20) The A/D gives the impression that those stocks that were "unchanged" are now seeing negative action.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  1:42:17 PM
IB must be posting bad data- I've now got a $4.80 spread on the June gold contract. Either that or the buyers and sellers have stopped calling bids and offers and are exchanging fisticuffs instead.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  1:39:46 PM
Agree, Jim, except that the downsloping rectangle is a bull flag. Then again, using your horizontal support line, that looks like a descending (bearish) triangle. One of my mentors eschews chart patterns, saying that they're like clouds- everyone sees what they want to see. I'll choose the bearish triangle.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  1:38:39 PM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 42.66 -0.16% ... just turning red this afternoon.

Now has XAU.X -0.69%, INX.X -0.24% and XAL.X -0.09% in the red.

Not looking all that good for a 01:00 PM EST update and Dow 8,900 is it?

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  1:35:28 PM
The OEX, currently 482.90, dropped below the 483 support and tested the 482.20-482.60 zone. As I mentioned yesterday, this is the time of day when support or resistance levels or tested. If the support is broken but the market jumps back up immediately, market participants have an important piece of information. If the market stays down, participants have a different piece of information. That does not mean that you should not honor stops, as the outcome is not certain.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  1:29:30 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  1:26:49 PM
That pennant is a continuation pattern, Jim, so I'd guess higher, if not for the long term resistance overhead at SPX 965/ NQ 1200.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  1:23:53 PM
The 10 period stochastics are toppy across the timeframes, from weekly on down to 30 minutes. I find it amazing that there is so much buying just below what is arguably a top across multiple timeframes, but such is the nature of trending moves. The FVX is up 3.4 bps on the day, showing continued light selling of treasuries. TRINQ has climbed to .85, TICK.NQ +166. The QQV is up .09 but the VXN is down .62- it looks like decent call-selling on the COMPX relative to the narrower QQQ.

  Ray Cummins   5/30/200,  1:11:30 PM
Naked Puts -- Portfolio Activity

It is a rare occasion that I will have to post a comment about the (conservative) naked-put positions but one stock that recently made the headlines is Cyberonics (NASDAQ:CYBX) and the activity deserves mention as we move towards the close of another week of trading. Shares of CYBX, which makes a surgically implantable pacemaker-like device to treat severe epilepsy, fell over 15% on Wednesday after the company said earnings for the first quarter and the year 2004 would be at the low end of analysts' estimates. The news came in conjunction with the firm's quarterly report, which showed that Cyberonics posted a profit in the latest quarter versus a loss a year earlier, as strong sales of its products helped propel the medical device company to its first profitable year. After the gap down, the issue showed no real signs of resiliency, but the current range near $19 seems to be developing into a new "comfort zone" and it will be interesting to see where the stock goes from here. For the record, our current position (short put at $20) is approximately $0.70 in the red and that's with a $5 drop in the price of the underlying.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  1:09:42 PM
There's been some softening in the ratio of up volume to down volume. Up volume is now 3 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.6 times down volume on the Nasdaq, down from their respective 8.4 and 5.5 ratios seen earlier today. Adv/dec ratios are 2.95 on the NYSE and 2.12 on the Nasdaq, slightly down from their respective 3.6 and 2.6 ratios from earlier today. This softening may be only a shift from the more exuberant levels seen earlier to more orderly trading behaviors, and they certainly remain strong. I'm watching for further shifts in either direction. Volume is 840 million on the NYSE and 1.3 billion on the Nasdaq.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  1:00:08 PM
June gold is bidding higher at 363.10 now, while FVX holds its 3.6 bp gain. The shallowness of the pullback on the indices looks awfully bullish. If they can close at or above current levels, both bulls and bears will be united in awe. As Alan noted, it's often the least expected outcome that we should expect. I hope not, but it's a distinct possibility.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:57:48 PM
Thanks, Linda, and to everyone who's just sent me well wishes :)

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  12:55:50 PM
Congratulations from me, too, Jonathan! I remember your first day and how carefully I watched your posts. It didn't take me long, though, to begin paying close attention to what you had to say, and to trust the information you offered. In addition to that information, you offer a welcome humorous relief on slow or painful trading days.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:51:43 PM
It looks like a bullish cup and handle forming on the US Dollar Index at the 93.40 level. June gold is bidding at 362.50, with HUI -1.53 and XAU -.63 today. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:47:02 PM
It certainly does.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  12:46:58 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,854 +1.64% ... per 12:22:13 chart, seeing the break above that little red downward trend. Alert to strength and if Dow can take out session high, should see continue bullish trade into the close. 8,900 for a nice round number close to end the month of May?

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:46:48 PM
Another .62 put to call reading comprised of a 1.45 Index pcr and .44 equity pcr. The lack of depth on this pullback fits better with the consolidation theory than the distribution theory, but it's ultimately going to depend on whether we run out of buyers or sellers first.

  Jim Brown   5/30/200,  12:46:31 PM
Time sure flies when your having fun.

  James Brown   5/30/200,  12:43:11 PM
Congratulations, Jon! Here's to another year.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:42:30 PM
I've just noticed that today marks the one year anniversary of my first posting in the Market Monitor :)

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  12:41:10 PM
From weakness can come strength ... main reason for noting CBOE Internet (INX.X) 136.36 -0.03% slight weakness can be used by a short-term trader, especially when major indexes look to digest morning gains right now.

For instance.... intra-day trader in my opinion is looking for some type of sign of weakness or strength to push him onto a trade.

While INX.X slightly weak, further weakness could lend to broader market softness building to the close. right?

What if the INX.X instead, bids back higher? Isn't that a sign of strength from the bottom on an intra-day basis? Then hinting of renewed sector and perhaps market bullishness, which perhaps triggers the upside move into the close?

With all sectors except XAU.X (which can tend to trade opposite the indexes from time to time), the INX.X slight DIVERGENCE is what grabs a trader's attention. I think "good traders" always look for the DIVERGENCE to help guid a trade decision.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  12:33:05 PM
Lately, Jeff has several times pointed out the VIX level in relationship to its 21-dma. That moving average certainly does seem significant. For the last week, the VIX has consistently challenged that average but the average continues to pressure the VIX.

  Ray Cummins   5/30/200,  12:32:26 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Any time there is bullish activity, there will be some bearish plays to exit or adjust and issues in that category include Cabot Microelectronics (NASDAQ:CCMP), which is currently $0.55 "in-the-red" and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which climbed above the sold (call) strike at $80 during this morning's session. Another stock that is trading above the sold call is Integrated Circuit Systems (NASDAQ:ICST) but with the issue only a few cents above $25, traders have a good opportunity to initiate an adjustment, as well as a closing transaction. Stocks on the early-exit "watch list" include: International Paper (NYSE:IP), 3M Corp. (NYSE:MMM), Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI), Federal National Mortgage (NYSE:FNM), Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) and Harley Davidson (NYSE:HDI).

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  12:30:54 PM
Internet HOLDRS ... there are 3 different types of Internet HOLDRS. Internet Intrastructure (IIH) $3.31 (unch) seems to be the one trading more inline with what was noted in the CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 136.20. (see 12:11:52)

Internet HOLDRS (HHH) $37.30 +0.32% and Internet Architecture (IAH) $31.25 +1.59% trading stronger today.

With INX.X a bit lagging, should market weakness be found in last part of today's session, short-term bearish trader might look at IIH as bearish type of sector trade.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:25:23 PM
FVX is now down to a 3.5 bp gain, TRINQ up to .84 (still neutral, though), QQV up .04, TICK.NQ +12.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:22:37 PM
And I had thought you were just a really fast typist, Linda :)

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  12:22:13 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,837 +1.45% ... seeing some "similarity" to yesterday developing here. Trader either looks for same, or DIVERGENCE from yesterday's action. Link

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  12:19:12 PM
It looks as if Jonathan's reader and I were noticing the same pattern. (See our two 12:17 posts.)

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  12:17:16 PM
One pattern I've noticed over the last couple of days for the OEX is that the highs are made on either the second or third hourly candle, with the biggest decline coming on the fourth hourly candle. Today's pattern so far looks a lot like those formed on Wednesday and yesterday. Patterns are made to be broken, however, and the end-of-month and normal Friday afternoon squaring-up of positions might distort any patterns anyway. It's going to be a battle between the take-the-profit crowd and the get-me-in-on-the-dips crowd this afternoon. It's difficult to predict which crowd will win, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go either way. The candle that will begin forming in about fifteen minutes--the fourth of the day--should give clues as to whether today's pattern will diverge from that of the previous two days.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:17:07 PM
Looking for a selloff starting in the next 45 minutes... Yesterday there was a hard dip at around 12:30 and that has happened several times over the last few days. Hopefully I'm right cause I entered puts right around the time Alan went to lunch (Big Grin) may be a new indicator.

We'll see if you're right, AB.

  Ray Cummins   5/30/200,  12:16:34 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Another big day for market bulls and the Premium-Selling portfolio has enjoyed some outstanding performances in early trading. ImClone (NASDAQ:IMCLE) is the big mover, up over 15% after a report suggested the company will present data that Erbitux, its experimental cancer drug, actually works. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that doctors familiar with soon-to-be released clinical results say the data confirms Erbitux is a promising cancer therapy. Other bullish issues include semiconductor stalwarts KLA-Tencor (NYSE:KLAC) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), as well as consumer electronics retailer Best Buy (NYSE:BBY).

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:13:42 PM
The put to call ratio has edged up to .62, with the equity pcr .43 and the index pcr 1.54.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  12:11:52 PM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 136.21 -0.14% ... first sector other than Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) to turn red as trading session grows longer. Slight alert to "weakness" is my observation here.

Last night, I was trying to read some of the Challenger report. Dot.coms were one of the bigger layoff sectors. Not sure if some traders are reading negative "vibes" into that or not. Why would Dot.coms be laying off employees?

  James Brown   5/30/200,  12:04:30 PM
Sector leaders right now are the GHA hardware sector (+1.99%), the BTK biotech index (+1.92%), the OSX oil service index (+2.57%), and the RLX retail index (+1.90%).

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  12:03:06 PM
12:00 Internals

NYSE= Vol: 691m A/D 23:8 NH/NL 242:5

NASDAQ= Vol: 1.10b A/D 20:9 NH/NL 191:7

Seeing a few more decliners creep in on the A/D list, with Advancers holding the 11:00 levels.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  12:02:42 PM
Quiet going into the noon hour, still just below the day highs. QQQ has been moving sideways through its stochastic up phase on the 3 minute candles, and volume has been declining. FVX is up 4.4 bps, off its highs, TRINQ neutral at .73, QQV +.34 and TICK.NQ +54. There's insufficient "drama" to make this anything but a pause. Whether the next pickup is to the upside or downside remains to be seen.

  James Brown   5/30/200,  12:01:38 PM
The Dow Transports (INDEX:TRAN) is really contributing to this rally. It's up 1.9% and rebounding strongly from the 2400 level. Currently approaching previous highs near 2500. Traditional Dow Theory believes that you can't have a significant rally (or bull market) without participation of the Transports.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  12:00:45 PM
QQQ intra-day chart observation. Link

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  11:58:39 AM
We now have a price formation to watch on the OEX hourly charts. Link Here's what Pring has to say about this formation, called a megaphone by some but an orthodox broadening top by Pring: This pattern comprises three rallies, with each succeeding peak higher than its predecessor, and each peak separated by two bottoms, with the second bottom lower than the first. Orthodox broadening formations are associated with market peaks rather than market troughs. . . . Obviously, a breakout is difficult to pinpoint under such conditions, but if the formation is reasonably symmetrical, a decisive move below the descending trendline joining the two bottoms--or even a decisive move below the second bottom--usually serves as a timely warning that an even greater decline is in store. . . . Measuring implications are similarly difficult to determine, but normally the volatile character of a broadening top formation implies the completion of a substantial amount of distribution. I caution that all formations can break either to the upside or the downside.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  11:48:25 AM
Last Friday I made note here in Market Monitor last Friday (09:46:45 AM) regarding the Stock Trader's Almanac notes of bullishness for day after Memorial day with Dow up 14 of last 19. Stock Trader's Almanac note was actually for the WEEK after Memorial day, not just Tuesday.

Turning the page on my calendar, Stock Trader's Almanac notes that first trading day in June (Monday) shows Dow up 9 of last 12.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  11:41:00 AM
SPX MONTHLY Pivot I'm taking a minute to try and get a feel for next month's pivot levels and plugging in this month's current H/L/C.

Preliminary S2= 881.5, S1= 922, P= 943, R1= 983, R2= 1,005.

We didn't see a MONTHLY Pivot test this month. I have heard several floor traders say they felt SPX 950 a "critical" support level near-term, and preliminary MONTHLY pivot close at 943.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  11:35:00 AM
Another .58 put to call reading.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  11:30:34 AM
11:00 Internals

NYSE= Vol: 498m A/D 23:6 NH/NL 192:4

NASDAQ= Vol: 838m A/D 20:8 NH/NL 169:7

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  11:30:27 AM
Volume patterns remain strongly positive, but not so strong that they would prove unsustainable.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  11:25:20 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,831 +1.37% .... Today's trade at 8,850 enough for a 3-box reversal discussed in last night's Index Trader Wrap. As such, longer-term investor/trader can once again snug up a stop from 8,400 to 8,650.Link

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  11:24:38 AM
On the OEX, 30-minute and 60-minute RSI now curve down. If they continue rolling, both will have continued a pattern of lower highs that began forming mid-morning Wednesday. Again, this evidence is far from conclusive, but should have bullish traders on their toes. Unless something changes radically in the next few moments, the 60-minute chart is going to print a doji on top of the previous hour's big white candle.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  11:21:46 AM
The indices are flopping around here, with the FVX pulling off its high, up 5 bps now, the TRINQ up to a neutral bullish .76, TICK.NQ +93 and QQV -.49. Note that the QQV (and VXN) are not putting in new lows here, despite the new highs on the Nasdaq futures and indices. This is again a bearish divergence, but the only real test will be price. As long as the SPX and NDX stay below their long term trendlines, it looks like a top, confirmed by the volatility indices.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  11:19:16 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  11:07:39 AM
The most recent put to call ratio is up to .58, still quite low and showing an excess of call volume, indicating bullish speculation. TRINQ .51, TICK.NQ +253, QQV -.46.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  11:07:07 AM
I'm watching RSI flatten on the 30-minute and 60-minute OEX charts. Although this is far from conclusive evidence of a downturn in the making, RSI is often a leading indicator and bullish traders want to see it turn up again. Thirty-minute CCI turns down again. The last 30-minute candle was a bearish shooting star. Again, none of this is conclusive evidence, and I still would not be surprised to see continued moves toward 487-490, but it may signal some hesitancy as those levels are approached. I'm also keeping Leigh's OEX 485 level in mind as possible resistance, as I respect his judgment.

  Mark Phillips   5/30/200,  11:05:13 AM
AMGN $64.17 (+0.85) Dusting itself off after yesterday afternoon's plunge, AMGN is back over the pivotal $64 level and now it remains to be seen if the stock can challenge yesterday's intraday high of $64.89. With daily Stochastics looking toppy, conservative traders in the play from lower levels may want to use today's strength to exit open positions ahead of the weekend and then re-evaluate next week.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  11:02:45 AM
What is a distribution top?

On the charts, it is a high volume top on an up move. The idea is that sellers looking to unload longs or initiate shorts want to distribute as much stocks to bullish traders as possible, and so seek to have price remain at or the near the highs for as long or for as much volume as possible. If the indices tank from here, we'll know it was distribution. If they blow through those long term resistance lines, we'll know that it was a consolidation of the recent up-phase near the highs.

  Mark Phillips   5/30/200,  10:58:10 AM
SPW $37.85 (+1.07) Finally some upward movement! SPW finally got a lift from the broad market action this morning and pushed through the $37.25 resistance level. That gave momentum traders the entry point they were looking for and now traders still on the sidelines will want to look for a dip to and rebound from that level, confirming old resistance as new support before adding new postions.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  10:56:44 AM
Volume patterns remain strong, with adv/dec ratios now at 3.6 for the NYSE and 2.6 for the Nasdaq. Up volume is 8.4 times down volume on the NYSE and 5.5 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 384 million on the NYSE and 706 million on the Nasdaq. So far, there's been downward shift in these patterns. Ticks, however, are trending toward the lower end of the day's range.

  Mark Phillips   5/30/200,  10:54:24 AM
QLGC $50.35 (+0.99) Exit point alert. As mentioned in last night's update, traders should be looking for an exit from the QLGC play near the top of the channel near $51 to possibly as high as $52. The early surge higher took the stock to a high (so far) of $50.97, and that's close enough for me. Since we're so close to that profit target, I would recommend that traders deciding to leave positions open raise stops to $50, which is just below the intraday lows following the initial sharp upward move. We've gotten a very nice move out of this play and there is no sense in giving too much back to the market if it should turn abruptly lower before printing new highs.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:53:13 AM
If this really is a distribution top, then the sellers have earned a golfclap as the price remains consistently high, just under the ceiling.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:49:28 AM
Nice entry, Alan.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:48:42 AM
Dow Breadth has all 30-stocks positive. All are up better than 1% other than HON +0.76%, INTC +0.09%, MO +0.62%, PG +0.63%.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:45:01 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 302.18 +1.74% ... OEX/SPX bulls getting the needed "help" from the BIX.X today. Have UPSIDE alert set on BIX.X at DAILY R2 of 302.70 and WEEKLY R2 of 302.50. Again... a "level" that a bull would like to see broken to the upside for "super bull" type of index gains.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:44:28 AM
NQ 1200 and ES 965 are now in play.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:43:40 AM
CBOE total put to call ratio edges up to .54 for this past hour, data just released.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:41:28 AM
SPX 963.65 +1.47% .... got upside alert at 962.11, and see 5-minute close ABOVE this level. Here's where the "blow off potential" from last night's Index Trader Wrap can now be in play.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  10:38:29 AM
The OEX has now exceeded this week's previous high. Watch for a test of 487-490. As I mentioned yesterday, if you're in bullish OEX trades, know ahead how you'll handle that potentially strong resistance zone.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:37:37 AM
FVX is back near its highs of the day, up 6.3 bps, while gold is at its lows, trying to hold the 360 level and down 8.90. The CBOE put to call data is tardy. TRINQ .50, TICK.NQ a whopping +720! TRINQ .50.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:37:34 AM
Dow Indu (INDU) 8,852 +1.6% .... here's an intra-day chart of Dow on 5-minute interval. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:30:56 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 8,835 +1.42% .... "best % performer" of the major indexes and back above WEEKLY R2 of 8,824.71. If bulls are going to drive things, would look for 8,824 support.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:28:17 AM
QQQ/OEX observations OEX 483.39 +1.25% and nearing yesterday's highs. QQQ $29.68 +1.19% can't seem to get through its MONTHLY R2 at this point.

Hints of willing seller in Q and may cap the OEX at yesterday's high. For "blow off" bullish move, would really have to look for these levels to be broken to the upside at the same time.

As such... OEX bull now raises stop in OEX 481 bullish trade to break even. Thinking here is we "dodged the bullet" on decline to 475.50 yesterday and stop at 475. If the indexes are going to make their break higher, then let them do it now. If not, no sense risking the stop at 475. My thinking at least.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  10:26:47 AM
I've been hesitant to report on volume patterns too early today, because I thought they might suffer from more than the normal distortion due to volatility before and immediately after the economic numbers were reported. So far, they're strongly bullish, with advancers about three times decliners, and up volume 7 times down volume on the NYSE and 4 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Volume is 229 million on the NYSE and 500 million on the Nasdaq.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  10:23:40 AM
The OEX climbs closer to yesterday's high of 484.13.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:18:49 AM
SPX futures are back to testing their long term trendline, currently 961.50 with a HOD of 962.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  10:18:35 AM
As an addendum to my previous post, which I didn't want to be too long, if the indices test and fail again at the week's high, that might precipitate more selling ahead of the weekend by those nervous about protecting big bullish profits. Those hourly oscillators make me wonder if a third possibility might exist, however: markets held steady today, consolidating while those hourly stochastics cycle up. Yesterday when scanning Nison's books to find examples of two doji in a row or two other reversal signals in a row, I sometimes found that the third day printed a small white candle before the reversal ensued on the next trading day.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:18:16 AM
FVX has dipped well off its highs to a 3.1 bp gain, while gold has gone nowhere, currently down 7.10 at 362.50.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:13:33 AM
QQQ $29.70 +1.33% ... Intra-day chart update on 5-minute bars.Link

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  10:13:22 AM
OEX 60-minute charts show CCI moving up into the green again, RSI hooking up in mid-fall, 21(3)3 stochs making a bullish kiss from the mid-60 level, and 5(3)3 stochs turning up from fully oversold conditions, so it certainly appears that a challenge of this week's high is in the works. Daily oscillators don't look nearly as bullish, with MACD flat and other oscillators in overbought territory, but they can stay there while bullish sentiment carries the index higher. A sustained move over the week's high should predict a test of that 487-490 region.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:09:56 AM
The equity put to call ratio is .34 and the index pcr 1.14. These remain very low readings.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:07:04 AM
QQQ $29.64 +1.12% ... session high after Chicago PMI was $29.73, and that's smack on MONTHLY R2 of $29.73. For indexes to really post a strong session, I'm thinking bulls would want QQQ above that $29.81 level of DAILY pivot retracement. Bring in some short covering for the momentum higher. Early action hints that equities will finish at days high, with DAILY pivots needing to hold as support intra-day.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:06:45 AM
Put to call ratio .43. Not a typo, but could be bad data. If it's valid, then the bulls might have finally gone berserk, showing bears their throat for the first time in weeks.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:04:03 AM
Bonds are getting a pickup in selling, FVX noiw up 6.3 bps.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:02:37 AM
OEX 482.48 +1.06% ... breaks to session high, free of 481 here.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:02:05 AM
QQQ $29.71 +1.2% ... breaks to session high, here we go, bulls got their number.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  10:01:11 AM
Chicago PMI 52.2 and shows expansion. Should be bullish number for equities.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  10:00:07 AM
Al Green drained 500M with an announcement of a 3.5B weekend repo against the 4B last minute overnight repo announced yesterday morning.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:59:51 AM
OEX 480.21 +0.58% ..... Chicago PMI due out any minute now.

QQQ $29.57 +0.98%.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  9:59:46 AM
So far, the OEX has maintained the 478.50-479 support today, not even testing it after climbing above that level in the first five minutes. On any pullback from current levels, that would be the first level to watch.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:58:42 AM
Omnicom (OMC) $69.97 +1.27% .... Merrill Lynch making comments that OMC trades at a 5-7% discount to market, should be trading at a 10-15% premium. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:57:27 AM
Comsumer sentiment index 92.1, up from 86 in April.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:56:38 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:55:35 AM
The US Dollar Index is trying to hold 93 now, FVX up 2.6 bps and June gold down 7.20 to 362.40. HUI is down 2.01, XAU -.79.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  9:55:20 AM
I'm looking for an hourly close above the OEX 480.20 level as a sign of first strength, but I would not draw too many conclusions about anything that happens prior to the release of data in a few moments. Disclosure: I have a 1/4 bearish position on the OEX, entered prior to yesterday's drop, with the intention of riding it, if necessary, up to 487-490.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:54:38 AM
The TRINQ has risent to .53 and the TICK.NQ has dropped to +50, QQV .16. INTC has just dropped 22 cents in under three minutes. Neither ES nor NQ made it close to yesterday's tops... well, within a few points anyway. The 10AM data is due shortly.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:53:30 AM
Univ. of Michigan Sentiment for May comes in at 92.1, which was below consensus of 92.7

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:49:05 AM
QQQ somebody's selling that $29.57 level in the Q. This sets up the "squeeze" discussed last night above $29.81, but bulls need the catalyst at 10:00 AM EST.

That little "spike" to $29.69 and session high not only comes at DAILY R1, but also the extension of our "upper wedge."

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:47:55 AM
QQQ $29.58 +0.9% ... here's an intra-day 5-minute chart. QQQ did just spike to DAILY R1 of $29.69 after scree capture. Link

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:41:51 AM
QQQ $29.47 +0.51% .... Q's broke above that little downward trend we placed on chart in last night's Index Trader Wrap. Did find resistance on 5-minute basis at the DAILY 38.2% retracement of $29.57 (couldn't hold a 5-minute close above there). Things look "tight" ahead of 10:00 economic data.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:41:00 AM
For what it's worth, Ballmer has sold another 2 million shares.

Good for him. If I had the margin, I would too :)

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:40:29 AM
Trimtabs reporting outflows of 300M from US stock funds for the week ended Wednesday.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:38:36 AM
OEX 480.15 +0.58% .... per last night's Index Trader Wrap. At what I deem important intra-day level here.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  9:38:02 AM
The OEX currently tests the 480.20 level. This represents a 50% retracement of yesterday afternoon's larger-than-normal red hourly candle. Candlestick theory says the 50% retracement should now represent resistance, so this might be a first resistance level to watch today. Those in bullish positions want to see a sustained move above that level as a first show of strength. Those in bearish positions want the opposite.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:36:45 AM
TICK.NQ +549 in a massive buying frenzy, TRINQ .46, QQV +.02. QQQ 29.55.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  9:33:55 AM
As Alan mentioned yesterday in the Futures Monitor, technicals may be skewed today due to normal Friday squaring of positions as well as end-of-month window dressing. Some sitting on large gains since March's climb may be asking whether they ought to lighten positions, while others who haven't yet jumped in may be asking whether now is the time to do so, with indices hitting key levels.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:28:52 AM
Broadcom (BRCM) $23.53 ... gaining at $24.05 after Wedbush Morgan upgrade, citing improved broadband demand and likelihood Q2 will exceed company's guidance of 12-14% quarter-over-quarter growth. Wedbush also believes company is committed to new priority of improving pretax operating margin, and that the prospect of credible new CEO within the next 60-90 days is a catalyst. Raises target to $30.Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:23:56 AM
From Reuters:

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Global semiconductor sales growth slowed more sharply than expected in April, highlighting the impact of weak consumer demand for PCs and cell phones, figures from an industry group showed on Friday.

Monthly sales of $12.14 billion were flat compared with March and up just 9.7 percent on the same month a year ago, down from growth rates of more than 20 percent earlier this year, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group said.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:18:35 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:12:51 AM
Yields have blasted off since I typed that last entry, FVX now up 3 bps, TNX +1.7 bps and TYX +1.3.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  9:09:47 AM
09:00 EST Update posted at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  9:01:42 AM
No follow through on bonds, with the FVX now up .7 bps, TNX -.1 bps and TYX +.3. Futures, of course, are holding their gains. June gold is now down 4.40 to 365.20.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  8:43:11 AM
Bonds are selling lightly, with FVX +1.6 bps, TNX +.3 and TYX +.6 bps. NQ futures are at their session highs, +8 at 1187, ES +4.25 at 953.50, QQQ +.31 at 29.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  8:33:57 AM
Personal consumption was propped up by auto sales. Personal consumption dropped .1%, the biggest drop since last Sept. The Personal Consumption Esxpenditures price deflator fell .2% in April, which was the weakest reading since Sept 2001. The futures seem to like it, and bonds are currently flat in the first minutes of trading.

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  8:05:38 AM
The US Dollar Index bounced again from the 92.50 area to its current 92.90. June gold is 364.20 x 369.60 for the moment. Futures are up, with NQ +4 at 1183 and ES +2.25 at 951.50. I saw an article discussing the BOJ intervention in the currency markets last month, and apparently 4 trillion yen were sold to buy dollars. Wow! is my only comment.

  Linda Piazza   5/30/200,  7:32:22 AM
Good morning. Asian trading was a good news/bad news story. First, the good news: Overseas investors appear to be moving in to the Nikkei stocks again, according to orders placed before the Nikkei opened each day this week. In addition, the Nikkei's strong performance this week set the stage for its best month in four years, according to a Bloomberg.com article. Today, the Nikkei opened up, climbed into the midday break and remained positive all day, closing at 8424.51, up 49.15 points or 0.59%. The index repeatedly found resistance at 8450, and this chart shows why that might have been happening: Link

Note that the broken descending line is a relatively short-term resistance line, and also that Stockcharts.com has not yet updated the chart to show today's candle. The Nikkei remains far below its longer-term resistance line, but it nevertheless has risen above that shorter-term line. The 8450 resistance may perhaps be viewed as the neckline of a not-perfect reverse H&S formation. Those neckline values are sometimes rejected on the first approach after the completion of the right shoulder, with a second right shoulder being formed before confirmation. Sometimes they're completely rejected, with market participants responding with disappointment and driving the market down again. That's why confirmation must be awaited. This morning, for example, I'm reading reports that the Nikkei has risen too far, too fast, and that sub-8000 numbers are expected again this summer. There's not yet any sign of imminent rejection of the neckline, however, with a new P&F buy signal.

Resona Bank was a big gainer today after an announcement that more than 100 executives would retire and many employees would be trimmed. After bailing the bank out, the government decided to take control of a majority of Resona's voting stock to make sure that adequate changes are made in the corporate governance. Honda and Toyota gained big after announcing that the strong euro helped their European businesses, although the companies also counseled that those revenues remain a relatively small portion of their overall revenues. Tech stocks such as Sony, Fujitsu, and other computer-related stocks gained. The most recent steadying or weakening of the yen against other currencies, of so much benefit to Japanese exporters, has been accomplished by a record selling of the yen over the last month, according to some reports.

Now the bad news: The April Japanese jobless rate remained flat, at the same 5.4% rate as seen in the previous month. April spending by those in salaried households fell 1% from the year-ago period, and May Tokyo CPI prices eased 0.4%, extending worries about deflation in the Japanese economy.

The bad news in Europe includes a report that April French unemployment numbers showed a 9.3% jobless rate, with 7000 unemployed persons added to March's number. Of course, this may be a case of "bad news is good news," because this may strengthen the case for the ECB to cut rates when it meets on June 5. German unemployment exceeded 10% last month and may do so on the next report, too. The CAC 40 perhaps reacted to that news today as it trades down, but so do most European markets. The DAX is one of the relatively few that trades positive. Some reports attributed the red seen in European bourses to nervousness ahead of the release of U.S. economic numbers this morning. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 traded down 23.10 points or 0.57%, to 4060.50; the CAC 40 traded down 12.03 points or 0.41%; and the DAX traded up 30.65 points or 1.05%, to 2937.36. The DAX trades longer than the other markets and was pressured when some U.S. markets began their declines yesterday afternoon, and may be playing catch-up today.

European market news featured pharmaceuticals, with Bayer and Sanofi-Synthelabo climbing after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ruled that their respective drugs under review were not causing heart problems. Merck plummeted, however, after it announced that it would stop development of two early-stage diabetes projects and take exceptional charges relating to restructuring and litigation after a probe into price reporting in a Medicaid health benefits program. Merck has also been in the news this week after announcing that subsidiary Medco Health Solutions had filed to spin off all its shares. The performance of chip-related stocks in Europe was also mixed, with ASML and Infineon Technologies soaring but STMicroelectronics trading flat after USB Warburg mentioned concern over the company's high inventories and the impact of the weak dollar.

  Jeff Bailey   5/30/200,  3:27:55 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   5/30/200,  3:27:48 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  James Brown   5/30/200,  3:27:08 AM
Yesterday's Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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