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  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  8:06:38 PM
Sector Bell Curve comparison for week just ended and 05/30/03. I've added our 10-day average NYSE High/low ratio (NYHiLo) and NASDAQ High/low (NASHiLo) ratio to the bellcurve as they tend to be "faster moving". Link

Wall Street (BPWALL) was the big mover this week along with the Semiconductors (BPSEMI).

I like brokerage stocks for pullbacks into support as field position still not too bad and trade volumes along with some merger/acquisition provide opportunity for some favorable quarterly results in coming quarter. Thinking is to "buy the pullback" and then be ready to sell the news.

Goldman Sachs (GS) $88.70 +1.6% a pullback candidate for bullish entry near $82 with bullish vertical count of $93 still in play. Link Those still holding long from 04/03/03 02:10:10 alert Link might look to follow with a profit stop just below today's low of $88.70, then look for one more shot at the spread-triple-top.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  6:25:17 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for next week is posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  3:52:59 PM
There's a mighty struggle going on to close the indices in positive territory. While the S&P's and Dow may make it, it's doubtful that the COMPX, NDX, SOX, TRAN, or Wilshire 5000 will do so. We've had a key reversal day, then, on the broadest of all our markets. The damage done by this reversal, however, must be balanced against weekend headlines that tell retail investors that the Dow closed the week over 9000, if that should happen.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:41:47 PM
Sold red breaking out in the COMPX and NQs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:29:33 PM
The TRINQ is back above 1.07. TICK.NQ -281. QQV +.72.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:26:38 PM
2.6B shares so far on the Naz! On a reversal day no less. I agree, Scott and Angel. Looks like we get to relax a little this weekend, for a change.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  3:25:23 PM
Volume patterns had been improving just before the bond market closed, but they're slipping back again, with down volume now slightly ahead of up volume on the Nasdaq, and with decliners slightly ahead of advancers there, too. Advancers remain ahead of decliners on the NYSE and up volume remains ahead, but not by big proportions. Volume is already over 4 billion.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:16:18 PM
Gap and crap with several failed attempts to recover. Massive volume. Sharply rising VIX, VXN. Major componets acting poorly.

Too good to be true.

Sounds like the market is setting us up for DOW 10,000 by the end of June!

LOL! We have the best readership!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:09:15 PM
A print above 30.35 would invalidate that head and shoulders breakdown on the Qubes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  3:08:30 PM
You're probably tired of hearing me say it, but bullish traders need to beware if the indices close in the red, as they will have completed the last requirement of a key reversal day. They've already met the others: big move early on in the direction of an overextended trend, big volume, and then a reversal. If they close negative, that's the last requirement. This has been characterized on CNBC as profit taking, but key reversal days are sometimes viewed seriously. That doesn't mean I've changed my outlook in looking first for a relatively shallow pullback, to the 38.2% level, nor my believe that all potential reversal signals are "potential" only until proven otherwise.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:06:58 PM
QQQ 30.25. Head and shoulders in play to 29.20ish if it fulfils.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:06:21 PM
Ahhh. Lows of the day on QQQ, NQ and ES just printed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  3:04:50 PM
Interesting that MSFT is so weak and INTC so strong. I guess they're thinking that buyers will want chips with no operating systems.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  3:03:37 PM
The VIX is staying near the high end of its range this afternoon, as is currently 23.52.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:59:36 PM
MSFT is not bouncing so far, now down 1.12% and in play for that head and shoulders I discussed yesterday. It's on the daily candles, and projects to just south of 22. It needn't get there, but MSFT bulls had best beware.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  2:59:00 PM
PeopleSoft (NASDAQ:PSFT) $18.02 +19.12% .... PeopleSoft just saying that bid from Oracle (ORCL) is "atrociously bad behavior, from an atrociously bad company."

I (Jeff Bailey) think PSFT put it very kindly and shows much more restraint than I would have.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:53:44 PM
MSFT 23.87.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:51:23 PM
1st target of QQQ 30.30 approaching. As a significant neckline support level, a bounce is likely- better short entry at 30.25 if reached.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:50:24 PM
I never thought "30.30" could sound so good!

Same here!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:49:56 PM
Put to call ratio up to .71, with the QQV up at 31.10 and the VXN +3.46.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:47:08 PM
This QQQ break is printing a head and shoulders formation with its neckline at 30.30, a break below which would target the 29.20 area, if it fulfils.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  2:46:20 PM
QQQ $30.49 +0.19% .... back to test its WEEKLY R1 of $30.47 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:40:03 PM
The bear wedge on QQQ 3 minute is history, downside break projecting to 30.30 is in progress.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  2:39:08 PM
HMO Index (HMO.X) 688.43 +2.46% now challenging GSTI Software (GSO.X) 133.27 +2.87% for today's sector winner.

Oxford Health (OHP) $38.78 +1.67% still trades strong from $36.00 with biggest challenge still ahead at $40.00 Link

Dorsey/Wright & Associates has OHP in their Healthcare Sector Bullish % (BPHEAL) which is till "bull confirmed" at 62% bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  2:38:39 PM
The OEX did not make it up to the 501.30 area, the upside target of the miniature reverse H&S pattern. Hmm. An upside target not being met. At least not yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:37:34 PM
Agree, Jim.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:31:42 PM
There's solid depth on the offer at MSFT 24.04, very close to support and its lows of the day/

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  2:30:27 PM
Biotech Index (BTK.X) 491.32 +0.09% .... battles back to break-even and afternoon session highs here. Look for intra-day resistance now at 494.50

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:26:50 PM
It's so far a weak up cycle and seems to be printing a bear wedge on the 5 minute QQQ candles. A 5-min candle print below 30.60 should project to new day lows, if the pattern plays out.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/6/2003,  2:25:54 PM
A new feature will be announced in the Sunday newsletter. Most of our readers are familiar with Alan Knuckman and Andy Aronson who ran the Preferred Trade Live office in Chicago for Preferred Trade. They have partnered with Mann Financial to open OneStopOption.com. They are trading stocks, options and futures for not only U.S. residents but traders outside the country as well.

Beginning Monday they will offer Autotrading of Mike Parnos CPTI trades and the covered calls, naked put and combo sections from Ray Cummins and Mark Wnetrzak.

These are the most profitable sections on the website in both bear and bull markets. We urge you to contact Alan/Andy at www.OneStopOption.com or by phone at 888.281.9569.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   6/6/2003,  2:18:10 PM
Spread/Combos -- Reader's Write E-mail Replies

(condensed) Hi Ray, I'm a new subscriber to the newsletter and I don't really know where to begin. I have traded a few covered-calls so I looked at that section but I am also interested in spread plays as I know they are limited in risk. It looks like you have a good selection of stocks to trade but how do I pick the best ones? Also, what is the difference between a "debit" and a "credit" spread? The risk seems similar in both positions, but one requires a cash expense while the other uses margin in my portfolio -- so why would I ever use a debit spread? MF

Hello MF...First, before opening any positions, read Jim's "Winning Axioms" (on the home page of the website) for options traders. It will give you a general idea of how to profit in the options market. As far as picking plays, experienced traders generally examine our wide range of candidates and narrow them down using "due diligence" until they find favorable positions that meet their own risk-tolerance levels. Many of our recommendations are based on the current technicals and the price of the stock relative to the option strikes, however we can't predict what's going to happen a day later so use some good judgment and remember that YOU are always responsible for any trades you make. Always do your own research and be knowledgeable of all the facts surrounding the play! Regarding the difference between debit and credit spreads: I recently had another E-mail on that subject and the complete reply will be included in the week-end edition of the Spreads/Combos section. See ya there!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  2:17:36 PM
OEX.X 500.73 +1.15% ... battles back to psychological 500 level after successful test of WEEKLY R2 of 496.67 as it backfilled this morning's gap with afternoon low of 496.58.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  2:16:47 PM
Here come retests of ES 1000, NQ 1245, QQQ 30.95.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  2:13:26 PM
02:00 PM EST Internals

NYSE = Vol. 1.22b A/D 18:13 NH/NL 533 2

NASDAQ = Vol. 2.1b A/D 15:15 NH/NL 426:4

Pretty much the same as 01:00 PM EST mark.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  2:08:42 PM
What if? What if the OEX were to pull back from here? What would be an appropriate downside target? Conventional wisdom now suggests a rather shallow pullback, perhaps to the 38.2% range. Currently, that would bring the OEX down to about 464.70. As I snapped the Fibonacci retracement tool on the daily chart, that 38.2% retracement coincided nicely with historical support in late April and early May, so that's certainly an appropriate place to find support. Before that level, there's the 478-479 support level to be tested, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  2:00:09 PM
Volume patterns now show adv/dec ratios of 1.35 for the NYSE-traded issues and .99 for the Nasdaq-traded issues. Up volume is 1.3 times down volume on the NYSE and 1.4 for the Nasdaq. While these still range from neutral to bullish, they show a definite deterioration from earlier patterns. Volume is 1.2 billion on the NYSE and 2.2 billion on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  1:59:33 PM
FVX is up 10.2 bps, TNX +7.1 bps and TYX +3.6 bps. QQV is up 1.45 and VXN +3.24. This bounce has grown some legsl, but so far is fairly tame. TRINQ at .71 and TICK.NQ +45 are indecisive as well.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  1:51:04 PM
The reverse H&S did push over the neckline, as mentioned in my 13:41 post. The upside target would take the OEX back to that 401.50 area, where it found resistance in late morning. Now we'll have an opportunity to see if upside targets fail to be met, which would be a change in the market tenor, although not yet an important one since we're talking about five-minute and under chart formations.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/6/2003,  1:50:39 PM
I want to remind everyone one more time. If you want a chance at the $1000 in free options on the stock of your choice you have to have your entry in by 8:PM tonight. Click here for details: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  1:41:10 PM
I show the OEX finding resistance now on this extended trendline, a trendline that first began forming Wednesday as support. However, note that there's a rough miniature reverse H&S perhaps setting up with a neckline right along that extended trendline. The right shoulder hasn't even been formed yet, so it's far too soon to draw any conclusions. Link

 
 
  Ray Cummins   6/6/2003,  1:25:09 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Despite the midday retreat in equity values, one of our recent bullish plays continues to make advances. Icos Corporation (NASDAQ:ICOS) is up almost $2 at $41 and the issue traded as high as $44 during the morning session. The strong upside momentum began earlier this week after the company published favorable research data on Cialis, an investigational oral treatment for erectile dysfunction being developed by Lilly and ICOS. Today the rally continued after ICOS announced that it and Biogen (NASDAQ:BGEN) will conclude their program collaboration on LFA-1, a molecule found in certain immune cells, with ICOS to acquire sole rights to the program. ICOS said it will independently pursue small molecule treatments based on antagonism of LFA-1 and apparently, investors were happy with the news. Our recent synthetic position in the issue has offered speculative traders a potential profit of over $10 in less than two weeks.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  1:20:47 PM
NQ is finding resistance at the 105 minute sma at 1231. A failure here should be good for a fall to 1220 support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  1:18:48 PM
Some good oomph to this bounce, with QQQ now hitting the upper BB at 30.61.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  1:14:14 PM
The put to call ratio is up to .69, with an index pcr of 1.20 and an equity pcr of .57. Medved has confirmed that quote.com indices are back online for Quotetracker- what a relief!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  1:12:23 PM
The bounce is finding resistance at its bollinger band midpoint on the 3 minute QQQ chart. Meanwhile, MSFT has managed to bounce all of 4 cents off its lows. QQV and VXN are holding their gains, and note that FVX is back up to a 9.4 bp gain. If the equities continue to drop, we're looking at the bond/equity marriage continuing, and the two should continue to slide together.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  1:07:08 PM
Did anyone notice that GE is above 30? It's currently 30.27. However, the daily chart does show a doji or near-doji sitting high above yesterday's white candle. Today's candle is far from confirmed yet, of course.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  1:04:04 PM
Jonathan, I do believe the gentleman that introduced Mr. Greenspan christened him an "honorary black man"... I also liked the kid they planted to ask if interest rates were going up or down and if he liked the just passed tax cut bill. Have a nice weekend. Coleen

That's it! Al Green knows where it's at!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  1:02:44 PM
MSFT at 23.99. Appointment with gravity at hand.

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  1:01:59 PM
For those of you who don't know what we're talking about (evening star pattern, which the market is NOT displaying)...here's an image. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:59:58 PM
Did anyone catch Al Green on TV last night meeting with those highschool students, talking about how he used to play with Stan Getz when he was in his teens. One student actually referred to him as "my homie" or some such thing. The aged-but-still-groovy Al Green!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  12:58:33 PM
Down volume is fast catching up to up volume on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. It's not there yet, but the downward trajectory in the volume patterns continues. On the Nasdaq, advancers and decliners are now even, although advancers still lead 18:13 on the NYSE.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:53:02 PM
Bounce here heading for the bollinger midpoints on my 3 minute candles.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  12:51:11 PM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 78.04 +0.43% .... sector bids back into positive territory after lower open and session low of 76.15. Most likely seeing the rebound after giveback of gains from the major indexes.

Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,117.91 +0.854% steady here after program trading curbs were lifted at 9,111.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:51:02 PM
Meanwhile, QQV is up 2.07, VXN up 3.75 and VIX +.95. Everyone follows these, and so everyone knows that someone's shouting "Fire!" in the theatre. But the TRINQ shows them filing out in an orderly fashion, only .73 now (but well up from its opening .08 reading), TICK.NQ just -126. Other than the options market, it's neutrally bullish out there so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  12:50:14 PM
James, an evening-star pattern can have a small-bodied candle, too. It can be white or black (or red, with Q-charts and some other chart providers). If it's a doji, it's more significant and that's called an evening doji star.

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  12:45:46 PM
My bad, I believe an evening star has a doji in the middle, not a shooting star in the middle. Just ask Jeff.. it's all Chinese to us. ;-)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:45:19 PM
It's the "island" component that makes it an "abandoned baby". One of my friends refers to it as "a floating turd" top :)

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  12:43:51 PM
Jon, I thought that was called an "evening star" --- definitely a bearish reversal pattern.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:42:52 PM
It's a high reliability bearish reversal pattern: Green day, shooting star gapped above the green day, followed by a red day. It's the candlestick version of an island top.

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  12:38:59 PM
I do think it's very interesting that the RLX retail index has managed to rally these last two weeks with virtually no help from its biggest component Wal-Mart (WMT).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  12:38:03 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,111.30 +0.77% ... trading curbs now removed after Dow comes back to withing 70-points of yesterday's close.

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  12:37:45 PM
I'm not familiar with that one, Jon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:37:13 PM
A lower close today and a red Monday would give us the "Abandoned Baby" candlestick reversal pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  12:36:16 PM
Careful. We're now seeing the COMPX and the NDX complete the requirements for a key reversal day: big move up (in the direction of the previous move) in early trading on big volume and then a reversal into negative territory. The day is far from over, but this bears watching, even if you're in an OEX or SPX or DJX trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  12:33:56 PM
The OEX has now retraced more than half the day's gains.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:27:04 PM
Hey! Quote.com is back online!! Great news! FVX is up 9 bps, TNX +5.4 and TYX +3. The TRINQ is up to .56, VXN + a whopping 3.71, and QQV +1.66 at 31.13. TICK.NQ -217. Those volatility readings are a disaster for Naz bulls.

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  12:27:00 PM
Check out some of these runs.

The XBD securities/broker dealer index is up 9 days in row.

Not counting today, the DDX disk drive index was up 11 of the last 12 sessions.

The RUT (Russell 2000 small cap index) is still climbing, currently on its 12th up day in a row.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  12:25:03 PM
A glance at the $TRAN's daily chart shows that yesterday it completed a two-candle pattern known as a bearish engulfing candle, perhaps predicting today's weakness in the $TRAN. Steve Nison qualifies the various types of bearish-engulfing patterns. In the strictest sense, he says, the first candle, a white candle, would be small in relationship to the second candle, a red candle, and the real body of the red candle would engulf the white candle, shadows and all. Yesterday's red candle almost engulfed the small lower shadow, but didn't quite do so. However, Nison's next qualification is that the red candle's real body and shadow engulf the white candle's body and shadow, and that certainly happened. The two candles were almost of equal size, however, so that the outlook might not be as bearish as it would if the red candle had been larger, but that may be countered by the fact that the pattern emerged at important resistance, which Nison also factors into the outlook.

So far, too, the weekly candle is setting up to be a bearish shooting star, and that's a potential reversal signal, too. We've seen lots of potential reversal signals set up and not fulfill their bearishness and that trend will continue as long as the rally mode operates. However, it's difficult to know when that rally mode has ended until a bearish reversal signal does fulfill its promise. I'm watching the $TRAN in particular because it often leads its sister index, the $DJI.

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  12:21:02 PM
I'm also encouraged that IBM, NOC and HCA (three OI put plays) have all but ignored the rally today and remained relatively weak.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:20:20 PM
NQ -2.00 at 1232.

 
 
  James Brown   6/6/2003,  12:19:22 PM
I definitely agree with Mark. Earlier today he suggested taking profits on several of our successful call plays. They way this Friday session is shaping up traders in DISH and OHP (two OI call plays) should consider taking some money off the table (if not all of it).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:19:04 PM
The USD index maxxed out just below 94, which has held back all bounces so far. The Canadian employment data was bad, and caused a selloff in the recently rallying CDN dollar. Combined with the bullish blowoff in the US, one would think that the CDN could have fallen further, but no such luck of CDN dollar bears, with the USD:CDN up .89% and holding since the early AM.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  12:16:25 PM
ES is up just 4.50 currently, NQ +1.00 and YM +86. Will the Naz lead the way as it's usually been wont to do?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  12:05:20 PM
The $TRAN is also down on the day, down 0.31%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  12:04:41 PM
The DJ US Home Construction Index was a big gainer yesterday, but now is down 1.41%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  11:59:57 AM
Volume patterns continue their downward trajectory, while still remaining postive. Bullish players want to see that downward move slow, with volume patterns steadying.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:58:55 AM
QQV +1.46 at 30.93, VXN +1.97 at 36.50. This is a clear display of fear in the COMPX. Option premiums are headed north. HUI and XAU are actually green, more fear. FVX has faded to a 3.8 bp gain. I'm with Jim on this. We could see a sharp move in either direction, but it feels like the downside has a better risk/reward.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  11:44:29 AM
11:00 Update has been mailed (server was down), while 11:00 Update posted to site still delayed due to technical problems.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  11:38:51 AM
Volume patterns remain positive, but continue to show a downward trajectory. Up volume is now 4.3 times down volume on the NYSE and 3.5 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios are now 2.3 on the NYSE and 1.7 on the Nasdaq. Total volume is already near two billion.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:37:21 AM
Jane, not this market. This year, it goes up WAY faster than it comes down. The only fear has been of missing the next bull market :(

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:36:45 AM
Jim, I wish you could have heard Jimmy Rogers' interview with Jim Puplava, in which Rogers, in that exasperated drawl of his, said "There is so much speculation, so many mutual funds- what are there, 6000, 9000 funds? There can't be that many smart 29 year olds in this country!"

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:35:33 AM
ES 1000, QQQ 31 and NQ 1250 should now all act as resistance, if resistance hasn't yet been outlawed.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/6/2003,  11:34:49 AM
Jonathan I told you that 30 year old picture would get you in trouble,.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:34:39 AM
Once again, June gold is amazing me, bidding at 361.70, last at 362, which is its low of the day. That 359 support line hasn't come close to being tested.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/6/2003,  11:32:14 AM
Down two days in a row, that must have been really long ago. (grin)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:32:03 AM
By the way, the picture of me on the website is deceptive, particularly with my having ripped out most of my hair over the past month :)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:30:13 AM
I remember back when I was much younger, probably before you young guys came along, I once saw the market actually go down for a day or two.

Me too- and I'm looking forward to the next one. The QQV is up 1.21 and the VXN +2.18, VIX +.57. On the COMPX and QQQ, these are breakouts in the volatility indices. With the put to call ratio staying below .70, it looks like a genuine divergence. Bulls should keep tight stops on.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  11:24:54 AM
As I expected, we got the OEX 500 test. What happens next could determine the tenor of the rest of the day's trading. Bullish traders want to see a new high. Bearish traders want to see a negative close, fulfilling the last requirement of a key reversal day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:21:42 AM
TRINQ .46 as COMPX and QQQ begin their gap fills.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:09:42 AM
MSFT is a mere 15 cents from going negative.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  11:09:36 AM
Up volume is now 6.4 times down volume on the NYSE and 6.3 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios are now 2.9 on the NYSE and 2.4 on the Nasdaq. Total volume is now 547 million on the NYSE and 1.1 billion on the Nasdaq. These are sustainable levels, but offer a warning if the easing continues. I reiterate my earlier caution: Bullish traders do not want to see a negative close as that would now not be just a normal pullback or profit-taking.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:09:02 AM
NQ is perched on its lower bollinger band intraday, 1254.5. QQQ is walking its support band lower, but no sharp violations to provoke a sure bounce so far, which is the best bears can hope for.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  11:06:52 AM
FVX is up 6.8 bps and falling, while the QQV is up .90 and VXN +1.52, even the VIX is higher by .34. This increase in option premium tells me that the big players are starting to at least hedge against downside, which actually makes sense this morning. It could be saying more- a bearish divergence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  11:04:59 AM
If the OEX falls beneath 502.50, I wouldn't be surprised to see it retest 500. There's a miniature H&S showing up on the two-minute charts with a downside target about there. As I mentioned yesterday, downside targets predicted by such short-term formations are often not met, and in this bullish climate, downside targets often haven't been met, no matter on which chart they form. However, I give more credence to this one because 500 is such an important number psychologically and traders might want to see it tested.

Note: the OEX fell as I was typing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  10:59:52 AM
Geron (GERN) $6.72 +5.16% .... stock has been "stuck" here at this level and all I can note here is that on 04/01/03, stock closed at $6.75 and on 04/07/03, stock gapped up to open at $6.75.

While I don't "technically understand" this level, it seems to be "important."

As such... trader that may have some substantial sector gains in biotech from stocks, then my thought is that GERN is perhaps the most SPECULATIVE of stock we've traded from bullish side, and would use the $6.75 level as a "reason" to take some gains. True.... I may be pulling this level out of my ear, but this seems to be a level that stock has shown some type of gravitation toward.

Disclosure: I currently hold a bullish position in GERN Sept. $5 calls.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:57:06 AM
QQV is up .84 to 30.31, VXN up 1.27 to 35.80. These divergences from the rallying QQQ and COMPX are notable- on any other day I'd call them bearish.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   6/6/2003,  10:55:51 AM
PII $65.81 (+0.86) Here's another one from the Premier Investor bullish play list. As noted in last night's update, PII has been exceedingly stingy about delivering decent entry points since we began coverage at $60.11 last weekend. But nonetheless, it is testing the bottom of very strong resistance in the $66-67 area today. Traders that did enter the play on Tuesday's dip should give serious thought to taking some gains off the table up here. At the very least, I would recommend raising stops to $63.10, which is just below yesterday's intraday low.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  10:49:16 AM
Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 512.73 +4.47% .... component gainers PDLI +14.5% Link , CRA +13.7% Link , VRTX +12.8% Link , HGSI +8% Link

Lagging... IVGN -1.6% Link , CEPH -1.2% Link , DNA -0.28% Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:47:19 AM
For my fellow unfortunates using Quotetracker with Quote.com for indices today, I've just received an email from Jerry Medved in response to my inquiry, confirming that Quote.com's feed is down and that he doesn't have an immediate fix for it.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   6/6/2003,  10:46:17 AM
Time To Harvest Gains With the early rally apparently stalling out, I want to remind readers about several of our plays that have large gains and topped out this morning near our profit targets.

BBY - After reaching a high of $43.95 yesterday, the stock failed to print a new high this morning with the rest of the market, only reaching $43.90 at its high so far. While still holding above $43, the bounce seems to be fading. I would recommend raising stops to $43, just below today's intraday low. Another push up to test the day's highs would be a welcome gift, but lets not be greedy!

SPW - Already well above our initial profit target of $41.25, SPW charged as high as $45.40 this morning, before the fade began. Recall that $46 is the site of the bearish resistance line, so that level will likely be a tough nut to crack. Harvesting gains on the early push higher would have certainly made sense. Currently at $44.50, the stock is now threatening to break into its opening gap. Conservative traders may want to harvest gains on a break below that level and I would recommend tightening stops to $43.50, just below yesterday afternoon's late day consolidation.

NTAP - This one is from the Premier Investor playlist and ran up within 4-cents of our final profit target of $18.50 this morning. Currently trading $18.25, I would suggest being aggressive with stops here, raising them to $17.80, which is just below the intraday low. Of course, another push near the $18.50 level should be a no brainer for harvesting gains.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:46:01 AM
QQQ found resistance just above 31.20, and NQ is hugging its 13 period sma on the 50 tick bars. What goes up fast comes down fast, unless it's consolidating, and that's what appears to be going on. If so, then it's a very bullish pause we're getting here. I wouldn't be thinking of doing anything other than buying the dips so long as NQ starys above 1245, QQQ above 31, ES above 990.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  10:42:56 AM
Volume patterns continue to ease from the extreme bullishness, with up volume now 9.7 times down volume on the NYSE and 9.3 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Advancers are now 3.9 times decliners on the NYSE and 3.2 times decliners on the Nasdaq. Volume is 378 million on the NYSE and 849 million on the Nasdaq--strong volume for this time of day on the Nasdaq. Although there's some slight easing in the volume patterns, they still remain strong. That easing could be reassuring to bullish traders if it moderates to a sustainable level and stays there. However, watch the trend, because if it continues down, that could spell trouble.

Bullish traders do not want to see today end in the red, as markets have now met certain of the parameters for a key reversal day--strong volume; an explosive move that continues the previous direction, making important new highs; a move across the first couple of hours that encompasses the range often found in a day or two of trading.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:37:09 AM
Put to call ratio up to .66- still very low, considering.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:35:19 AM
Note how MSFT is underperforming here, up a mere 1.12%. Imagine if MSFT were actually participating fully- the QQQ is already up 2.21%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:33:11 AM
QQQ has reached its rising lower B-band at 31.33, while NQ bounced from 1260, making 1266 the next NQ target.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  10:30:55 AM
The OEX now falls back inside that regression channel seen on its 60-minute chart. Here's the chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:30:35 AM
We have a failure at the upper bollinger band on the 50 tick QQQ and NQ3M, with QQQ leading the way below the midpoint. NQ is trading stronger, so far finding support at 1260, but challenging that level now. A failure will bring in band support at 1253.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  10:26:41 AM
MONTHLY R2s have been traded in the INDU, SPX, OEX and BIX, with all but the BIX.X now off this level.

With trading curbs in place, its all going to be human intervention here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:24:26 AM
The TRINQ is up to .35, TICK.NQ -12. I'm surprised that the put to call ratio isn't much higher- presumably professional managers would be hedging their long profits here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:22:32 AM
FVX is now up 8.5 bps. I want to qualify Jim's prediction that a bond selloff will boost equities, because until now bonds and stocks have rallied together. Presumably a higher yield will compete with the dubious returns on an extended stock market. Great. But so far, today, green yield = green equities, so let's trade what we see. Good call, Jim, as usual.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  10:22:28 AM
Volume patterns have settle down a little, but very little, with up volume now 11.6 times down volume on the NYSE and 11 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Advancing volume is 4 times declining volume on the NYSE and 3.6 times declining volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 254 million on the NYSE and already 662 million on the Nasdaq. New highs are at 700 with new lows at 4.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  10:18:21 AM
The OEX is now at the top of the upward-slanting regression channel that has comprised its movements since the May 20 low. Either it's about to go vertical, climbing out of what already is a steeply ascending regression channel, which certainly could happen, or it's time to pull back.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  10:18:11 AM
Boeing (BA) $35.00 +3.88% ... getting alert here that I has set at bearish resistance trend. I'm not long, but if I were, would either look to sell covered calls or take some gains off the table. "First test of bearish resistance" can be painful for the bulls. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:17:55 AM
Gold is starting to lose its strength, with bids falling to our first support line at 359.40, last trade still on the offer at 362.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:15:50 AM
QQQ is going for 31.50, currently up 82 cents and climbing. 31.00 is gap support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  10:14:15 AM
Drug Index (DRG.X) 333.43 +2% ... getting upside alert here at 61.8% retracement of 333.38. This is retracement from March 2002 highs to July 2002 lows.

Merck (MRK) $60.24 +2.48% nearing the $61.00 level, which would be spread-triple top. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:12:59 AM
New highs on the COMPX here, YM up 161 points to 9208, ES new high at 1008.50. The TRINQ is creeping up to .19 now, still in hysteria territory, and the FVX is up, but not nearly as much as I'd expect on this monster move in equities, just +7.4 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  10:11:45 AM
Human Genome (HGSI) $17.66 +8.3% ... profiled bullish yesterday and today's trade at $17.00 gives bull the double-top buy signal they were looking for on momentum build. Link

I took some July $17.50 for my account yesterday at $0.85 and am looking to sell 1/2 of that position should stock trade $18.25, which is pretty close to the August relative high of $18.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:09:01 AM
The fed has announced no action today, allowing a net drain of 2B in overnight repos.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:08:16 AM
The put to call ratio opened at .63.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  10:07:26 AM
OEX 502.80 and 501.50 are the first levels to watch now for light support. So far, the OEX pullbacks have been shallow, though, so I'm not sure those levels will even be tested again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  10:06:48 AM
No help from quote.com, and my system is running perfectly. Will continue to manually seek quotes on the different indicators.

I've just gotten off the phone with a friend and mentor who, for change, was picking my brain. He sounded sick. Remember rule #1, which is to breathe calmly and smoothly- only then can your mind work properly.

Here's a good long term take on where we are:

QQQ could find resistance at 50% retracement of the December 6, 2001, high of 43.24 and October 8, 2002, low of 19.76.

That 50% retracement is at 31.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  10:05:03 AM
First volume patterns are wildly positive, of course. Nasdaq up volume is 18 times higher than down volume, while NYSE up volume is 12 times down volume. Those patterns are probably not sustainable unless today is going to be one of exhaustive buying. That would be dangerous to bulls, but that doesn't mean that today will be a down day. First volume patterns are often distorted, and the buying frenzy could settle into a more sustainable pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  9:59:17 AM
So far, the pullback has been shallow, with the OEX moving back up above the day's high. So far, all action is bullish.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  9:56:11 AM
The COMPX seems to be rolling over beneath 1680 resistance, heading for gap support. The TRINQ is currently .10, TICK.NQ +217. ES is holding above 1002, NQ 1260, but MSFT is lagging pretty seriously.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  9:53:26 AM
I agree with Jane on the Futures Monitor. I'd be particularly careful of relying on oscillators this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  9:51:45 AM
We're entering the expected 9:50 first-reversal period. The depth or shallowness of this reversal gives some hint into early direction, although that's not a guarantee, of course. OEX traders should be watching that 50% retracement of the first five-minute candle at 498.57, of course, but there's also some early light support this morning between 500.60-501.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  9:50:37 AM
Geron (GERN) $7.00 +9.5% .... closing in on $7.20, which would be 30.9% gain from bullish triangle pattern of $5.50. Link

According to Professor Davis' study, the "bullish triangle" profitable in bull market conditions 71.4% of the time, average gain of 30.9% in 5.4 months.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  9:43:26 AM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,002.41 +1.6% ... Above WEEKLY R2 of 990.15 (place a stop just below) and now has MONTHLY R2 of 1,006.5 just ahead. Link

Will note that upper end of Bollinger Band (21 day, 2 Std Dev) at 990, ties to WEEKLY R2

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  9:41:58 AM
INTC is up 4.30% on that big push. QQV is down .54, less than expected. The TRINQ is displaying .08, but I don't trust the data I'm getting from livecharts. Then again, the market sure feels like a .08 TRINQ here, a buying frenzy. Bears can only hope that it's a blowoff top, but if we recall spring 2000, blowoffs can take months.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  9:39:11 AM
That first five-minute candle was larger than normal, and so gives traders some guideposts to watch. The 50% retracement of that candle comes at 498.57. Bullish players want to see the OEX hold that level when the usual 9:50 pullback occurs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  9:37:36 AM
Thanks, Jeff. Going now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  9:37:08 AM
OEX 500! Applause, please.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  9:36:51 AM
Quote.com working fine here Jonathan. Sometimes when I have problems, just re-install and works fine.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  9:35:37 AM
I'm flying blind without my quote.com indicators. Will stick to the charts until it comes back up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  9:32:11 AM
My quote.com datafeed appears to be offline. Is anyone else having trouble with Quote.com?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  9:31:18 AM
ORCL/PSFT/JDEC thoughts....

PSFT and ORCL are pretty big rivals (don't like each other), and I think today's offer from ORCL, while genuine, is Larry Ellison's way to get his name out in the spotlight along with ORCL. Today's "lowball" bid is a sour dishrag in the face of PSFT.

However, if PSFT were to accept, then JDEC may be "in trouble." If I were long JDEC and anywhere close to profitable, I'd sell the stock/options to mitigate the risk. My thinking is that JDEC is/was in trouble and PSFT was their solution to getting out of trouble as it relates to survival in competitive market.

I would think though, that PSFT will reject the offer made by ORCL today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  9:25:03 AM
Gold is surprising me. Despite a vertical ramp in the US Dollar Index underway, it's holding its bids at 361 currently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/6/2003,  9:24:26 AM
09:00 Update has been e-mailed, but posting to the site is delayed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  9:02:15 AM
Note that June is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises its seasonality and adjustment factors, which could skew the data we're receiving- either for the better or for the worse.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:57:13 AM
Note that the R2's listed in the futures wrap have been taken out by the YM and NQ, with the ES working on the 1000 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:54:54 AM
The bids on June gold are evaporating, currently 360.00 x 363.60.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:52:46 AM
Es prints a high of 999.50, NQ 1257.50 and YM 9118, last at 9110.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:40:48 AM
Although it was expected, the unemployment rate at 6.1% is the highest level reported in nine years.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:35:40 AM
8:30am APRIL PAYROLLS REVISED FROM 48,000 DROP TO FLAT

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:34:56 AM
The last two items reported were inline with expectations. The payroll data was an upside surprise, and the futures love it. QQQ is trading 31.15, bonds are selling off, FVX +5.5 bps, TNX +4 bps and TYX +4.3.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:32:29 AM
U.S. FACTORY JOBS DOWN 53,000 IN MAY

U.S. MAY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 6.1%; 1994 HIGH

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:31:15 AM
8:30am U.S. MAY PAYROLLS -17,000 VS. -46,000 EXPECTED

Futures are spiking. ES 997.50, NQ 1251, YM 9096.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:28:07 AM
Employment data is due shortly. Current levels ES 996, NQ 1246.50, YM 9080. June gold is being offered at 366.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  8:05:07 AM
ES is currently trading 996, NQ 1246.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/6/2003,  7:49:40 AM
The US Dollar Index is up to 92.64, .12 higher than where we left it last night. June gold is 364.80 x 387.90, last at 370. Equities are soaring, however, with NQ up 14.50 at 1248.50, ES +5.25 at 996 , and YM +45 at 9085. INTC is up at 22.18, MSFT 24.35 and QQQ 31.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/6/2003,  7:02:12 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei tumbled into the red in early trading Friday, but struggled back into the green by the midday break. As often happens after the midday break, the Nikkei's trading changed character and the Nikkei climbed steadily into the afternoon, closing up 128.64 points or 1.49%, at 8785.87. Most tech stocks retreated in the morning and gained in the afternoon, although TDK and Canon performed well all day. Banks and automakers rose. Of interest to those following currency issues was the news that Japan's May forex reserves scored a record $543 billion, one impact of the Japanese government's currency intervention efforts. Today, Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa hinted that Japan may sell its currency to limit the yen's strengthening against the dollar. Big surprise, right?

Other Asian bourses were mixed. Taiwan's Weighted was flat, up 0.04%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.58%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.1%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.33%.

Most European bourses trade up at the current time. Intel's hint that European sales could surprise to the upside, among other facets of its report, sent European semiconductor-related shares higher. Several news sources also commented on the positive impact of Congress's $400 billion Medicare plan on European drugmakers such as AstraZena, Roche, GlaxoSmithKline, and Novartis. The Senate proposes cutting Medicare drug prices by 15% in comparison to prices paid by wholesalers, but there had been some fear that the cut would be deeper.

Currently, the FTSE 100 trades at 4148.30, up 44 points or 1.07%. The CAC 40 trades at 3061.97, up 27.90 points or 0.92%; and the DAX trades at 3087.98, up 48.22 points or 1.59%. The CAC has almost made up yesterday's losses, and the other two already have recouped those losses.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/6/2003,  5:44:24 AM
Market Monitor App reloading, please reconnect in 5 minutes

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/5/2003,  12:48:54 AM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for Friday at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/5/2003,  12:17:35 AM
ImClone (IMCLE) $38.53 +12.26% ... Link Stock trades $48.70 last tick in after-hours on news that after meeting with FDA, the company is prepared to resubmit its Erbitux application some time in the 2nd-half of this year.

Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) $26.90 +3.62% Link indicated $28.65 over New York ECN as it is partner with IMCLE on Erbitux.

News gives lift to other biotechs with "cancer drugs/treatments" in the pipeline.

Geron (GERN) $6.39 +24.31% Link extends gains to after-hour at $6.79.

Human Genome Sciences (NASDAQ:HGSI) $16.30 +7.8% Link gaining $0.60 to $16.90 late session.

Biotech HOLDRS (AMEX:BBH) $128.90 +3.5% Link gaining $3.10 to $132.00

 
 
  James Brown   6/5/2003,  10:13:14 PM
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