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  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  6:02:26 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  5:50:10 PM
S&P futures (sp03m) settled 986.70, trade fractions lower at 985.50 on heels of TXN outlook.

QQQ $30.02 now steady at tomorrow's DAILY pivot of $30.02.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  5:19:47 PM
Texas Instruments (TXN $20.39 +0.84% ... released for trading. $19.50 over the New York ECN here.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  5:07:49 PM
Texas Instruments (TXN) $20.39 +0.84% ... halted ... company saying that sequential revenue growth in second quarter will be at lower end of guidance due to reduced sales of semiconductors to wireless customers. As a result, TXN says revenue growth is now forecasted at 5%, instead of previous guidance for 7%. Conference call at 05:30 PM EST at 973-582-2741 (no passcode required). Live Audiocast at Link

QQQ $30.03

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  4:54:16 PM
Texas Instruments (TXN) $20.39 +0.84% ... halted with news pending.

QQQ went out at $30.18 +1.51%, dips to $30.08 here.

  James Brown   6/10/200,  4:27:52 PM
Shares of MMM, as the highest dollar Dow component, have the biggest impact on the index's move. The stock has been trading in a $4.00 range since it bottomed above $120.00 in early May. The move today was off the bottom of that slowly rising channel and its 200-day moving average. While the simple 50-dma has been resistance three times this month (June), I would expect the stock to trade higher tomorrow and thus be a positive influence on the DJIA. Check the chart: Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  3:59:37 PM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 75.70 -1.32% ... best levels of its session.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  3:56:58 PM
Buy Program Premium Alert first of the day...

INDU=9,046 , SPX= 983.7 , OEX = 495.6, NDX = 1,211 , QQQ= $30.14

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  3:53:44 PM
Unless there's a huge spurt of volume at the end of the day, the volume today will be lower than that seen during last week's climb. That doesn't necessarily prove anything since consolidation days might be expected to have lower volume. Still, bulls might have felt reassured if volume had been higher and indices had pushed a little higher. As of a few moments ago, total volume was 1.1 billion on the NYSE and 1.6 billion on the Nasdaq.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:52:35 PM
Breakaway for NQ and QQQ.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:46:47 PM
Fresh highs on NQ and QQQ.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  3:45:14 PM
The OEX heads up toward the 60-minute 21-pma again. That average is currently at 494.97. The OEX almost had an hourly close over that average earlier this afternoon, closing a penny under it, but so far has not had an hourly close over the average since Friday's close.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  3:45:10 PM
Amgen (AMGN) $63.57 +1.3% .... trying to make a little move higher into the close and intra-day high here.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  3:32:31 PM
Trying to understand what's going on underneath the market averages, I decided to take a look at the stocks for which UBS Warburg cut estimates today. This morning, many seemed unaffected by the UBS Warburg action. International Paper (IP), for example, was up $.77 points this morning. Through the afternoon, most of those stocks have trended down, however, with the exception of BNI. Those stocks included MOT, BCC, GP, IP, TIN, SSCC, WY, UNP, BNI, CSK, NSC, CNI, and CP. I think of Jeff's snake analogy, and wonder if these and other stocks that might have seen downgrades or lowered outlooks now succumb to slight weakness, and wonder if that might be one of the reasons the indices tended to leak lower this afternoon.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  3:28:40 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 979.67 +0.39% ... How about an update in the MM on yesterdays idea of shorting break of 982, target 965. If I'm remembering the numbers correctly.

Not much to update today. Stuck in a range of 983.29 to 975.93, and this is the "tight range" as depicted in last night's Index Trader wrap when we showed the bar chart of the SPX.

Short term traders look to be holding an "inside day" into tomorrow's session, which is basically a "neutral" day.

Only bit of "economic" data tomorrow is the 02:00 PM EST release of the Fed's Beige Book, then on June 12 lots of data (April Business Inventories, May Retail Sales, May Import/Export prices, weekly jobless claims).

  James Brown   6/10/200,  3:28:41 PM
Jon, I would think that if you had the resources available to you that Greenspan's office does, you could become a virtual expert on nearly any subject you wanted to.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:22:20 PM
The neckline on MSFT has held, so far. Volatility is way down, QQV -2.31 to 29.95, VXN -2.12, VIX -1.06. With the upper channel resistance being tested yet again, this will be a critical half hour going into the close.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:18:03 PM
Is anyone aware of what expertise Al Green might possess to make him an authority on natural gas?

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  3:16:28 PM
So far, the VIX hasn't reacted much to latest OEX downturn, although it may be turning up as I type. It's currently 22.75.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:15:01 PM
Harping on Alan's point a little, I remember last year being struck by what a low percentage of the take those broker fines represented. Going purely by memory, almost certainly wrong, was it an estimated haul of $30B in allegedly ill-gotten gains and a fine of $1.4B? Robert Chapman was having conniption fits over it.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:12:01 PM

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:11:17 PM
TNX closed at 3.194%, a major breakdown below support. We'll see the chart in tonight's futures wrap.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  3:10:51 PM
Total volume as of a few moments ago was 957 million shares on the NYSE and 1.4 billion on the Nasdaq. Volume patterns have continued to remain bullish, but if the Dow stays under 8900 for any length of time, that may begin to change, especially if the COMPX also dips below 1600.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  3:08:24 PM
High five, Alan. Agree 100%. This has been bothering me ever since the Martha Stewart feeding frenzy last week.

  James Brown   6/10/200,  3:00:50 PM
Not me, Jon. I'm buying shares of BA +3.46%, MCD +3.35%, the two leading Dow components.

(Just kidding, I'm not long either stock)

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  2:56:47 PM
Those spikes might have been James adjusting some of his open position :)

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  2:54:47 PM
INTC showed a spike up at the same time Jonathan and Alan were noticing spikes in MSFT and CSCO. JDSU and AMAT, just two old-time momentum tech stocks I picked at random, showed strange one-minute candles, too.

  James Brown   6/10/200,  2:51:28 PM
Retail News

The U.S. retail sales index is on the endangered species list. For more than 30 years the U.S. retail sales index has been tracking weekly chain store sales numbers. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi publishes the weekly report with UBS Warburg. Unfortunately, retailers have slowly stopped giving out weekly sales data. According to a Reuters article, J.C. Penney, Federated Department stores and Sears have all stopped providing weekly data in the last several months. If retailers like Target and Wal-Mart follow their lead, the index may cease to exist.

Meanwhile, the cooler spring weather has been negatively impacting seasonal sales items but analysts are expecting a strong week ahead of Father's Day this Sunday.

In other retail news, shares of Kmart have been resurrected from bankruptcy and the bulletin boards with a new symbol. The retailer famous for the "blue-light special" now trades on the NASDAQ under the new symbol KMRT. Shares opened at $17.55 this morning and are up 2.20 to $19.90.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  2:49:18 PM
I wonder if they'll manage to close TNX below 3.2%? 10 minutes to go.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  2:48:46 PM
Gateway (GTW) $3.56 +5.6% ... stock breaking out to 6-month high on trader talk that managment may look to take company private.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  2:45:21 PM
It's either bad data, or MSFT just dumped 20 cents in a single tick.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  2:39:06 PM
I'm watching MSFT put in a head and shoulders top just below gap resistance, working on the neckline right here at 24.30. If it works, 24.00 should be the next support level, but the move would likely deal a blow to the struggling Qubes and NQ contract. Yields have bounced very, very weakly, while volatility continues to plunge. Because of the tame put to call ratio, I do not see this drop in the QQV/VIX and VXN as a bullish divergence, though if the indices somehow make it past the high of the day, the situation will no doubt look different.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  2:22:11 PM
Attention traders of silver and gold futures on Interactive Brokers:

Effective today, intraday margin for the YI and GY contracts on ACE will end at 16:00 New York time.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  2:16:47 PM
02:00 Internals ....

NYSE 5,542 +0.4% = Vol. 796m A/D 21:10 NH/NL 235:2

NASDAQ 1,613 +0.59% = Vol. 1.18b A/D 18:12 NH/NL 124:2

A/Ds holding steady last 2 hours while major indexes remain steady.

Keep getting some sell program premium alerts each time SPX reaches the 928 level, or OEX at WEEKLY pivot of 494.7.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  2:12:13 PM
The OEX 30-minute chart shows 5(3)3 stochastics already rolling and a bearish kiss on the 21(3)3's. RSI hinges down. MACD flattens. CCI turns down, although it's not yet below zero. ADX continues to lose strength (since May 6), saying the oscillators should be more trustworthy than they are in a strongly trending market. As I mentioned earlier, experience lately has taught me to be skeptical, especially when oscillators roll down. Hourly 5(3)3 stochastics have made a bearish kiss, but haven't fully rolled down out of overbought territory and are subject to being turned right back up again. The 21(3)3's made a bearish kiss in mid-rise. CCI turns down again, measuring -21.35. The ADX is low here, too. This all hints at weakness, but just as the OEX chopped around while those oscillators rose, it can chop around while they fall.

  James Brown   6/10/200,  2:09:29 PM
Sector losers thus far today: XAU.X gold and silver index -3.01%, DDX.X disk drive index -0.64%, SOX.X semiconductor index -0.36%, and XNG.X natural gas index -0.03%.

As you might guess, the general atmosphere is rather positive.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  2:08:48 PM
The put to call ratio is up to .72 here, with QQV down 1.44, VXN -1.49 and VIX -.66.

  James Brown   6/10/200,  2:07:10 PM
Sector winners thus far today: DJUSHB (home builders) +2.85%, DFI defense index +1.9%, XBD.X securities/broker-dealer index +1.11% and GSO.X software index +1.05%.

  James Brown   6/10/200,  2:05:24 PM
For any Qcharts users listening to Greenspan, the Natural Gas symbols are NG03N for July and NG03Q for August futures

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  2:02:10 PM
For those at work, Greenspan is speaking. Perhaps expect some volatility.

  James Brown   6/10/200,  2:01:27 PM
Speaking of splits, EBAY has been on everyone's mind as a potential candidate. I know that the company's annual shareholder meeting is June 26, 2003. While I didn't see anything in their DEF14-A proxy statement that might hint at any stock split announcement but that doesn't mean they aren't considering one. What irks me is I can't find out how many shares they have outstanding versus how many shares they are authorized to issue. If anyone knows, please email me (James@OptionInvestor.com)

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  1:56:02 PM
The current blip up in the OEX began at 1:45 ET, my least favorite time of the day as it tends to fake out traders, with stops being run either to the upside or the downside as either resistance or support is tested. Yesterday nothing much happened at 1:45, as candles stayed flat. If this is as far as the advance takes the OEX today, this isn't much of a test of next resistance, either.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  1:55:16 PM
The US Dollar Index is down to 9349, while the CRB is up .44 to 237.12. Yields are taking a bounce off the lows but are still well down on the day. Equities did an about-face just after falling below the support line. This is as close to untradeable as it gets.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  1:45:38 PM
Magazine Ad Revenue, Ad Pages Up In May, Year To Date Dow Jones Business News - Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  1:45:01 PM
Weakness here in equities. With options volatility dropping to fresh lows, QQV -1.23, VXN -1.2 and VIX -.89, and equities unable to get beyond the current range top, I'm growing increasingly bearish for this session. The TRINQ at .70 shows good buying pressure, but all those calls getting dumped can't be healthy. Once those calls have been distributed, who will be left to buy or support the market?

  James Brown   6/10/200,  1:44:55 PM
I was chatting with someone yesterday about stock splits. One stock that is really moving that has a split coming up is UnitedHealth (UNH). The payable date for UNH's 2-for-1 split is June 18th. That's next Wednesday. The question now is whether overhead resistance just north of $100 will hold it back or will shares enjoy a last week split run higher into its ascending channel. Check the chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  1:35:04 PM
I see lots of potential patterns setting up--a potential bullish triangle on the OEX five-minute chart or even a possible rough reverse H&S on that same chart--and lots of things happening with the oscillators, but that's really due to boredom more than to important chart developments, I think. We've just got to weather this chop and see what happens next. Actually, I'm encouraged to see a test of sorts of the violated 60-minute ascending regression channel, as that test was expected sometime or other. Since we didn't get it immediately after the channel was violated, it's happening now. We need to see how the OEX behaves on the test. So far, the hourly 21-pma, which mostly supported the OEX as it climbed in that ascending channel, is now retarding its attempts to rise. That average is currently being tested again. Link

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  1:23:18 PM
The OEX keeps getting turned back by its 60-minute 21-pma, currently at 495.09. It's had some spikes above that level, but no candles have closed above it yet today. An hourly close above it would then be a divergence from the rest of the day's pattern.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  1:23:14 PM
Equities feel like they're caught in Darth Vader's tractor beam, which might well be the case if this is a simple call-distribution job. Volatility remains low, as does the put to call ratio.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  1:13:43 PM
Volume patterns have improved slightly over the last thirty minutes. Total volume is 692 million on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  1:13:25 PM
The bulk of this morning's ascent on equities has taken place on decreasing volume, which looks bearish to me. Volume is an erratic indicator, just one piece of the puzzle, but it's fairly clear that if the indices are running out of buyers and sellers at higher prices, it's unlikely that we'll be seeing a strong break to the upside, all things being equal. All things are never equal, which is why we add other indicators, but the put to call and volatility action, combined with the inability of the indices to break away from their upper s/r lines, continues to look bearish to me.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  1:06:27 PM
As the OEX now trades at/near the day's high, I note that the next resistance lies near 496, the site of historical horizontal resistance and the rising trendline off the May 20 low. That trendline has been rising through the day, of course. The OEX got turned back from that trendline earlier this morning. Let's see if it holds the advance if the OEX should continue to rise. As yet, the OEX is not anywhere near the bottom of the violated rising regression channel, but it's certainly acting as if it would like to test it, isn't it? Currently, 30-minute oscillators have turned back up, while 60-minute remain mixed in outlook. I hope that doesn't mean yet another afternoon of chopping around, but I'm afraid it might.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  12:44:24 PM
The put to call ratio is down to .63, while the QQV is down to 31.21, -1.05, VXN -1.09 and VIX -.84. It looks like the call selling is accelerating. I'll hazard a guess that we see the indices fail to break out here- they seem to be being held up, really just flat, while calls get distributed. Sell the calls and then dump the indices- a great strategy for those big enough to do it.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  12:36:56 PM
It's interesting that the fed actually added money today, given that bonds were already rallying. Was the move purely intended to prop equities? Or is Al Green attempting to drive yields to a new breakdown?

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  12:33:25 PM
Transkaryotic (TKTX) $10.06 +12% .... rather large increase in volume last 10-minutes. Stock hit session high of $10.24.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  12:31:15 PM
Total volume now measures 594 million on the NYSE and 914 million on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios are 1.8 on the NYSE and 1.4 on the Nasdaq. Up volume is 1.9 times down volume on the NYSE and 1.7 times down volume on the Nasdaq. These numbers are bullish, of course, but are not as strong as they were earlier in the day. New highs number just over 300, with new lows at 4 on the NYSE and Nasdaq combined.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  12:24:56 PM
Is this the to-be-expected retest of the violated ascending channel, as seen on the OEX hourly chart? I can't show the chart currently, but if the OEX advance continues, it appears that the OEX will run into resistance from that violated channel between 500 and 505, depending on when the channel is reached. Not all retests reach all the way back to the violated pattern, however. Of course, some retests are successful in breaking through to the other side, too.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  12:24:51 PM
Barely a dip in treasuries. This is a huge move within a huge market. TNX is now 3.2% even, FVX 2.086%, -8 bps and -9.9 bps respectively.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  12:09:24 PM
Flatlining now just above the resistance line, NQ currently 1203 and ES 981.25. QQV has dropped .80 now, VXN -.97, VIX -.53. The put to call ratio is staying low at .65 for the past half hour, looks like continued heavy call selling going on.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  12:06:15 PM
I'm working on two opposing scenarios this morning as I watch the OEX charts. I'm watching the sideways consolidation on the OEX 30-minute chart and at least keeping the possibility of a "p" accumulation pattern in the back of my mind, although it's getting a little long in the tooth compared to the size of the rise. My opposing scenario involves watching both 30-minute and 60-minute oscillators move up while any further advances are retarded on the OEX. That opposing scenario says that despite the push measured by the rising oscillators, further OEX advances have been halted. ADX on both the 30-minute and 60-minute charts has been moving down since May 6, indicating that we can trust the oscillators as this is a range-bound market, although I remain somewhat skeptical still. When the 30-minute and especially the 60-minute oscillators turn down again, perhaps the decline will resume. Obviously, both those scenarios won't come to fruition, but now I can watch for signs of either developing.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  12:03:41 PM
12:00 Internals ...

NYSE 5,541 +0.37% = Vol. 521m A/D 19:10 NH/NL 170:2

NASDAQ 1,613 +0.59% = Vol. 807m A/D 16:12 NH/NL 97:2

Slight improvement from A/D since 11:00

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  11:52:58 AM
August Fed Funds Futures (ff03q) 99.13 +0.05% .... current trade now has MARKET looking for 50% chance of 50 basis point cut by August meeting.

June Fed funds futures contract (ff03m) 98.82 current have MARKET looking at 28% chance of 25 basis point cut at June meeting (June 24)

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  11:48:59 AM
jimnalmqui, your email is bouncing.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  11:44:00 AM
Human Genome (HGSI) $14.27 -6.73% .... stock showing marked weakness in Biotech and I can't find any news to explain today's trade. Session low of $14.01 notable and comes just above the $14.00 level, which would have stock giving double-bottom sell signal and negating bullish vertical count of $31.00.Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  11:42:08 AM
The TNX is down 8.3 bps to 3.196% now, FVX -10.5 bps. This is more than just a 3B intervention buoying bonds to these new highs. The US Dollar Index is up to 93.60, still well below 94.00 resistance.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  11:36:30 AM
The FTSE 100 closed down 13.20 points, at 4115.90, and the CAC closed up 28.62 points, at 3083.85. Currently, the DAX trades up 36.36 points, at 3131.12. CNBC mentioned that a German train station had been closed due to a suspicious package or piece of luggage being left behind.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  11:21:08 AM
Yesterday, I was studying the OEX 60-minute chart, noticing a classic "b" distribution pattern. The OEX did break below that pattern, but as has happened countless times over the recent months, the OEX did not (as yet) fulfill that downside target and instead broke back above the violated support. Now I'm studying the 30-minute chart, noticing sideways consolidation right at the top of the first thirty-minute candle. Is this a "p" accumulation pattern? It could be, but it hasn't come after a big gain, but a relatively small one. The possibility should be considered, however.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  11:18:58 AM
This from a trader I respect very much. All unverified, but his info is usually excellent:

The FRE(ak) news is causing troubles in mortgage land. Managers with large agency exposure are buying treasuries to hedge exposure. Of course this heightens the risk of prepayment which causes them to buy still more treasuries to hedge out that risk. This spiral is completely out of control and is being pushed along by Sir bubbleman. Also there are rumors on the street of an "emergency fed meeting" which has traders piling into 10yrs in anticipation of a cut. Further reinforcing the spiral.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  11:14:18 AM
While we wait for clearer direction below the channel resistance lines, a quick reflection about the dollar, central banks and commodities. In January, in a moment of cynicism, I decided to diversify some of my precious metals longs in mutual funds into a commodities fund. My reasoning at the time was that while central banks could continue to print money and cover their tracks by dumping gold, they could not so easily suppress the price of other commodities, particularly perishables. The CRB today is down just .16, and all year that commodities fund has been outperforming both my mining funds, and, in fact, everything else in my portfolio. It's a Canadian fund, AGF managed futures. I tried to get into the Rogers Raw Materials fund at the time, but the minimum for foreigners such as myself was too steep.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  11:06:21 AM
TNX is at a new bear market multidecade low, 3.212%, -6.7 bps today.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  11:04:30 AM
MSFT is notably outperforming for a change, holding at 24.16 through most of the morning, and resistance to the selling that has been hitting QQQ and NQ. It's maxxed out its short period stochastic in overbought, while the Qubes are nearly 1 hour into their downphase.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  11:01:41 AM
June gold is now 347.30 x 351.30, last at 354.50. XAU is down 2.29 to 74.43, HUI -4.12 to 141.76.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  10:54:45 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 374.25 -1.21% ... reports of earthquake in Taiwan measuring 6.5 (unconfirmed) may be seeing some sector weakness.

Many chip fabrication operations in that region. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $10.22 -0.29% down fractions. Story = Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:47:57 AM
With the indices so far printing an inside day, there's little to be done except watch support and resistance levels. Below 980 ES / 1200 NQ / 29.90 QQQ, things look bearish to me. The negative volatility indices and the low p/c ratio (.65 on the last half hour) confirm this view.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  10:41:59 AM
The OEX five-minute chart now sports a miniature H&S with a neckline at 493 and a downside target of about 491. The OEX currently trades below that neckline.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:36:24 AM
The QQQ has joined the party, now down .14 to 32.20, VXN -.51 and VIX -.54. Option premiums are collapsing. Combined with the very low equity put to call readings, it looks to me like calls are being sold aggressively.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:32:38 AM
Continuing struggle to break away from the 980 ES / 1200 NQ / 29.90 QQQ levels. Yields have recovered a bit from their lows, while the spread on June gold is narrowing near its lows, 349.70 x 353.90. 353 is a siginificant support level, and the last trade at 354.50 brought the contract up from its 351.80 low. If 353 holds, we could be looking at a spike bottom to the downphase I've been following in the futures wraps.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  10:24:58 AM
The OEX decline stopped just below the 493 level that stopped the first dip. Both declines stopped just above the five-minute 100-pma, an average that currently declines but now registers 492.67. The five-minute 21-pma currently rises to meet it, and now crosses at 492.21.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  10:19:51 AM
Sell Program Premium Alert ... DOW= 9,017 , SPX= 979.13, OEX= 493, NDX= 1,197, QQQ= $29.77

Note: Roughly same levels as first sell program alert.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  10:18:39 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 303.71 +0.07% ... action here steady, but lack of gains most likely has SPX 979.83 +0.39% unable to make a move above its MONTHLY 19.1% retracement of 982.67

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:18:07 AM
Bond yields are back to fresh multidecade lows. The TNX just printed 3.20%. FVX is currently 7.6 bps, TNX -5.8 bps and TYX -3.6.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  10:15:52 AM
10:00 Internals...

NYSE 5,550 +0.54% .... 57.8m A/D 17:6 NH/NL 68:1

NASDAQ 1,614 +0.65% ... 174m A/D 15:7 NH/NL 55:4

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  10:14:20 AM
While the DAX has traded in the green today, as Alan mentioned on the Futures Monitor, the FTSE 100 struggles to climb out of the red. It's traded just above the flatline several times today, but keeps slipping back. Currently, it's turning down from its sixth or seventh attempt to turn green, and trades down 3.90 points, to 4125.20.

  Mark Phillips   6/10/200,  10:09:49 AM
RYL $69.70 (+1.79) That Lehman upgrade is having the expected buoyant effect on the homebuilders, with the $DJUSHB index up a solid 1.7% so far. RYL is going along with the group and is now nearing the $69.75 level, which was the bottom of Friday's range and the top of yesterday's range. Note that any entry off of this area only looks favorable on price weakness accompanied by some weakness in the $DJUSHB. With both currently trading at their highs of the day, the appropriate course of action is to watch and wait.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  10:09:10 AM
The OEX currently tests horizontal resistance and the 60-minute pma at 495.07. Above this level, next light resistance lies at 495.50-496.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:08:53 AM
Put to call ratio is .58, with the equity pcr .46 and the index pcr 1.21. Too low for a bull's liking.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:07:38 AM

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  10:06:42 AM
Chemicals ... was looking at sector bullish % data from Dorsey/Wright and Associates. Only sector bullish % to see much action yesterday was Chemical, which saw bullish % slip 2.4% to 61.91%. A reading of 58% is needed for a reversal into "bull correction" status.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:06:13 AM
Yields are just above their lows for the day, and equities are now back above their horizontal resistance lines. Gold is not bouncing at all from its lows. Volatility is down on all indices except QQQ, with QQV +.29, VXN -.48 and VIX -.53 at 23.16.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  10:05:57 AM
Although earliest volume patterns can be distorted, they're currently echoing the strength seen in the indices, with advancers beating decliners and up volume far ahead of down volume. Volume is light as yet, however.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  10:04:39 AM
This news release has just crossed my wire:

Stocks trade higher, resume rally Associated Press - Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  9:59:04 AM
Sell Program Premium alert DOW=9,024, SPX = 978.9 , OEX= 493.13, NDX = 1,195, QQQ= $29.75

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:56:29 AM
A 3b overnight repo from Al Green, which is another net addition.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  9:54:39 AM
As the first 9:50 reversal arrives, the OEX so far finds resistance at a confluence of resistance lines, with the most important perhaps being the trendline off the May 20 low, violated yesterday. There's also horizontal resistance at the 494.75 level, marked on my charts since yesterday. The five-minute 130-pma is also at 494.38. With 30-minute and 60-minute charts showing some bullish characteristics, it's possible that the battle for this level is not yet over, however. That may depend in part on how deep this first reversal takes the OEX before it attempts another rise.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  9:53:44 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 980.21 +0.43% ... session high has been 982.57, which is just under our MONTHLY 19.1% retracement of 982.67.

Was looking at playing some biotechs bullish, but would want to see an SPX above 983 to sense any type of good day trade action for a biotech.

While session is young, may get an "inside day" from the indexes and many stocks for tomorrow's trade.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:52:03 AM
NQ and QQQ are leading the decline.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:51:25 AM
Wow! Back down into the channel for equities.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:46:22 AM
Yields are new their day lows, struggling to hold support from last week which is the multidecade low under this bear market rally, while equity futures trade just above their channel resistance/support line, with ES 981.75, NQ 1204. If it doesn't break away to the upside, it will be another headfake from a lower level, very dispiriting to bulls, and we'll expect to see a quick revisit of yesterday's lows. Currently, TRINQ is .44, TICK.NQ -46, QQV up .28 to 37.51.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:41:43 AM
The fed has announced that it is adding reserves via repo agreements today, but the quantum has not yet been announced. It looks like Al Green is feeling spooked by the FRE news yesterday.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:40:18 AM
June gold is down 10 to 351.80.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:39:30 AM
CHALMETTE, La. (AP) - Fire broke out at two oil refineries less than two miles apart early Tuesday. The fires at the ExxonMobil Refinery in Chalmette and the Murphy Oil Refinery, about a mile and a half away, appear to be accidental, Sheriff Jack Stephens said. Neither fire appeared to be related and no significant injuries were reported, he said. Two trailer parks housing about 100 people near the Murphy facility were evacuated as a precaution. A spokeswoman for the ExxonMobil facility said the fire appears to have been caused by a pump failure.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  9:38:25 AM
Today's OEX first five-minute candle was a larger-than-normal candle, so that we can look at the midpoint of the candle's range as a guide for early trading. That midpoint was 492.41. Bulls want to see the OEX remain above this level, particularly since that midpoint came at one S/R level from recent days. Bears want to see the OEX driven below this level and sustaining trades below this level.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:35:27 AM
The CRB is holding up so far, with mostly perishable commodities showing green. That makes sense- presumably, the Fed and BOJ don't keep stockpiles of soybeans and wheat to dump into the open market, as they do with gold.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  9:33:27 AM
Last night in his futures article, Jonathan predicted higher prices this morning, based on his observations of the 30-minute charts. It appears he was right.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:32:35 AM
TNX is at a new bear market low, 3.223%, down 5.6 bps. FVX is down 6.8 bps. It just feels like a geyser of money went off, with bonds and equities rallying again. Too bad gold isn't following.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:28:38 AM
watching bonds, what does the action there tell you about the open. Is this central bank buying bonds, selling gold, buying dollars? I would like to know if I could use this as a sign for a short ES.

That's exactly how it looks to me. However, please be careful. The fed and the BOJ have way more money, and thus way more staying power than you or I- it's difficult to time the breakdown.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  9:25:28 AM
Geron Corp. (GERN) $6.96 ... stock trading $8.92 now. I had posted in 09:00 pre-market when stock was $9.60 to raise a profit stop to $9.00, and would look to take 1/2 pofits off the table this morning. I'm thinking yesterday's upgrade from Rodman & Renshaw a bit "timely" and they most likely will have some clients taking profits at the open. As such, we should too.

  Mark Phillips   6/10/200,  9:23:50 AM
Uh-oh! watch out for upside in the Home Building stocks today. In a pre-market note, Lehman raises its targets for CTX (from $75 to $90), DHI (from $29 to $36), KBH (from $60 to $74), LEN (from $65 to $80), PHM (from $73 to $83) and TOL (from $31 to $35) based on increased EPS outlook and higher multiples. While not specifically mentioned in the note, if these comments give a boost to the sector, then our bearish play on RYL is susceptible to an upside move. Obviously we want to wait to see how this news affects the group before initiating new positions.

  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  9:22:18 AM
09:00 Update delayed. Servers down for uploading to site and e-mail.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:20:02 AM
And, no breakaway for the indices, with NQ back to 1202, ES 981, QQQ 29.88.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  9:05:21 AM
New highs here, ES 982, NQ 1203 and QQQ 29.91. The upper resistance on the channel is failing here. FVX currenly lower, -3.2 bps. With stocks and bonds rallying together and gold getting dumped, it smells like more central bank operations to me.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  8:57:07 AM
QQQ has dipped a few cents, while equity futures continue to hug the upper resistance lines. June gold has gotten smacked down to 356.40, below the first support line and just above the second in the 353 area.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  8:31:50 AM
Bonds have opened in the green, with FVX -1.8 bps, TNX -1.9 bps and TYX +.6 bps. QQQ is holding at 29.87, NQ 1201.50 and ES 980.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  8:20:30 AM
The futures continue to battle it out with their upper resistance lines, and are very close to breaking out, with NQ at 1202, ES at 980.75. QQQ is trading 29.89. The US Dollar Index is up to 93.45, with June gold trading down 30 cents to 361.50.

  Jim Brown   6/10/200,  8:03:08 AM
Market Monitor is being reloaded, please reconnect in 5 minutes

  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  7:24:18 AM
The futures are battling it out with their upper resistance levels, with ES currently 980 and NQ 1200.50, QQQ trading up 11 cents to 29.84.

  Linda Piazza   6/10/200,  7:14:53 AM
Good morning. In Tuesday's trading, the Nikkei closed down 33.64 points or 0.38%, at 8789.09. Other Asian bourses were mixed, with Taiwan's Weighted closing up 0.11%, South Korea's Kospi closing down 0.09%, Singapore's Straits Times closing down 0.19%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closing down 0.31%.

After achieving a six-month high yesterday, the Nikkei opened down about 70 points. In early trading, Motorola's reduced forecasts hit the mobile-phone related stocks hard, as traders feared that Nokia would also reduce forecasts. Other tech stocks fell after a survey suggested that global personal-computer shipments won't increase as much as expected. Yields fell to record lows as prognosticators spoke about doom and gloom in the form of deflation and the slowing of price increases, replacing those forecasting growth and improvements just last Friday. Machine orders were to be released late in the afternoon, and market participants feared a bad number. However, as often happens after the midday break, the character of trading changed and the Nikkei climbed from the day's low toward the day's high, falling back in the last thirty minutes of trading. It never traded positive, however.

Although maintaining its forecast of Q2 earnings of $.12-.15/share, down from $.18/share in the year-earlier period, Nokia predicted Q2 handset sales would increase less than 4%. The company mentioned the dollar's weakness and the effect of SARS on demand in China as affecting those handset sales. Nokia Networks expects Q2 sales to underperform the year-ago period's sales by as much as 5%, but some expected a greater drop. The company expects its market share to continue to increase. Market participants reacted to the news with relief.

The DAX benefited by several stock-specific developments, including a UBS Warburg upgrade of software maker SAP. Warburg said SAP would benefit from the attention rivals Oracle, PeopleSoft, and JD Edwards must pay to acquisition plans, and that it might additionally benefit if Oracle succeeds in replacing PeopleSoft's product line. German chipmaker Infineon and IBM jointly announced a Magnetic Random Access Memory product that combines the best assets of Dynamic RAM, Static RAM, and flash memory. Duetsche Bank announced a continuation of its Q1 strong operational results into the first two months of the second quarter.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 6 points or 0.15%, to 4123.10. The CAC 40 was up 20.63 points or 0.68%, to 3075.86, and the DAX was up 36.80 points or 1.19%, to 3131.56.

  Jeff Bailey   6/9/2003,  1:56:06 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/9/2003,  1:55:58 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  James Brown   6/9/2003,  1:55:35 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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