Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  9:33:01 PM
Breadth spreadsheet here's my "breadth" spreadsheet. Link

Seeing a few more 52-week lows in the NASDAQ (NSDQ NL) column, but not enough at this point to have much negative impact on the 10-day average (NSDQ NH/NL 10-day Avg).

NYSE looks very healthy still at the NH/NL levels and 10-day average, which is what we're charting on a PnF chart still inches up.

On the lookout for a BIG UGLY BEAR with paws the size of, of, of, .... something VERY big, but he's yet to show up.

I should also note, that BOTH the VERY BROAD... NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link and NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link reached the "overbought" 70% level with today's trade. They can always go to 100%, but now all bullish % are "overbought."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  9:20:15 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  4:37:34 PM
Correction I thought ORCL was to release earnings after today's close. I stand corrected as they will not release until after tomorrow's close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  4:14:48 PM
H&R Block (HRB) $43.98 +1.94% ... headline EPS of $2.71, which was below consensus of $2.83. Stock lower at $42.77 in after-hours trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  3:50:32 PM
As of a few moments ago, total volume measured 1.2 billion on the NYSE and 1.7 billion on the Nasdaq. Advancers were running a little more than 2:1 against decliners on the NYSE, but held a narrower 18:14 lead on the Nasdaq. Up volume was 2.8 times down volume on the NYSE and 1.8 times down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  3:41:36 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 309.50 +1.03% .... regains the 308 level in today's trade. SPX/OEX bulls may once again monitor index to see if it can take out last WEEK's high of 316.25 and lead SPX/OEX higher.

 
 
  James Brown   6/11/200,  3:30:03 PM
Sector winners today:

DJUSHB home builders +6.03%
OSX.X oil service index +4.53%
XAL.X airlines index +3.22%
BTK.X biotech index +2.91%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  3:27:46 PM
This just crossed the wire: I have no idea what they mean by the headline:

U.S. stocks up; Beige Book, IBM, oil sector help Reuters - Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  3:25:25 PM
The OEX definitely broke out over that latest regression channel. Although the hourly close hasn't occurred yet, it will soon. If it were not so late in the day, this would probably predict a test of the violated (previous) regression channel's resistance, but with initial claims and retail sales tomorrow morning before the open, I'm not sure whether that test will occur or whether longs will take profit ahead of those numbers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  3:24:50 PM
No, a BUD light...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  3:15:01 PM
Put to call ratio is .69 for this past half hour, equity pcr .51, index pcr 1.58.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  3:10:45 PM
The SOX is still negative. If it can pull itself together, us few remaining Nasdaq bears are going to have a problem.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  3:08:03 PM
New highs, ES 995.25, NQ 1224.50, QQQ 30.43.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  3:02:47 PM
Treasuries close on their session highs, with FVX +2.4 bps, TNX -.6 and TYX -.14. Nasdaq volatility is finally negative, VIX still up .31. 994.50 continues to hold back ES, while NQ is above 1223.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  2:59:50 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 376.59 -1.69% .... has now approached its morning high of 377.56. I'm thinking to really bring some further upside to the QQQ intra-day, would be helpful if SOX.X were to move to session high, really get bears frustrated and bring in further wave of short-covering, if not at least have bears double-guessing any further shorting attempts today.

At some point, and I just do NOT know when, bears are going to turn ferocious and bulls will rush for the exits, and make for a rather awesome decline. To pick up on any of this, we should see a sector deteriorate as first sign and bears will gather there as they get a move underway. Then they'll get some confidence and go after others.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  2:57:09 PM
OEX hits 500 again. It's testing the top of the latest regression channel, threatening to break out and explode upward. If it does, it will test that former regression channel between 505 and 506.50. (It's been rising through the day.) We've had hourly shadows that penetrated this latest regression channel earlier today with the body falling back, though, so I'm waiting for an hourly close above the channel before drawing too many conclusions. Since I'm not comfortable trading bullish in this zone anyway, just ahead of last week's highs and a test of the violated channel, it's okay with me to watch. For those of you already in bullish trades, congrats!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:52:37 PM
New highs here. I have fib resistance at ES 994, being the 78.6% level off the Friday high, getting exceeded here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  2:52:17 PM
QQQ $30.36 +0.6% ... per Jim's 14:48:53 comment and "thumping sound." I hear a "squeeezing" sound in the q's.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:48:46 PM
Both NQ and ES firmly in the green, ES at its day high 992.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  2:43:02 PM
For reference, the FTSE 100 ended the day up 37.10 points or 0.90%, at 4150.10; the CAC 40 ended up 38.05 points or 1.23%, at 3121.90; and the DAX ended up 37.81 points or 1.20%, at 3178.15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  2:39:50 PM
Kerr McGee (KMG) $47.53 +1.66% ... was monitoring this stock yesterday as a "natural gas play." They bought HS Resources a while back and took on a lot of debt to do it. Hurt the stock. However, HS Resources had previously bought all of Amaco's mid-continent natural gas properties, and I would think that asset should begin to pay some rewards.

Profiling bullish KMG $47.53 +1.6% here for the October $45 calls (KMGJI) $4.30

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:39:03 PM
Put to call ratio .67.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  2:36:26 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 465.56 +4.7% ... sector winner today and new all-time highs.

Oil Service (OSX.X) 101.54 +4.27% challenges for sector gainer.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:34:44 PM
NQ is dancing around unchanged, ES +4.0. QQV is back in the green. This is pure chop, still.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  2:32:30 PM
So far today, the OEX just chugs up along its new upward-trending regression channel, trading parallel to the longer-term and larger regression channel that had been containing its prices. Not only has it stayed within this new channel, but it's stayed above the midline support. A move below that midline support, and especially out of the channel and below the 21-dma would be a change in tenor, but there's no sign of that yet. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  2:25:38 PM
QQQ $30.23 +0.13% ... has been finding 15-minutes of bid at our upward trending "bullish resistance" trend. I think a bull certainly wants to see a close above the WEEKLY pivot of $30.30 ahea of tomorrow's pleathora of economic data. A close at $30.60 would be nice.

Now... $30.60 close isn't "nice" for my Sept. $27 puts at this point, but can continue to make some back on the long side in the near-term.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   6/11/200,  2:25:22 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Merrill Lynch selected some excellent companies for their Focus List but our choice for "hot" stocks are definitely Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) and Angiotech Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ANPI). Shares of both firms rallied sharply today after BSX said it plans to file its Taxus drug-eluting stent for premarket approval with the FDA, on or about June 23. The company is anticipating government regulatory approval by the end of this year, which would make it only the second firm to sell drug-eluting stents in the U.S. behind Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), whose Cypher product is already on the market. Fortunately, we have a number of bullish positions in both issues and it looks like the speculation in these volatile stocks has finally paid off.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:22:05 PM
Yields are at their session highs. Buy the rumor, buy the news. The TICK>NQ is +287, TRINQ .82. QQV is down .14, while VXN adn VIX are holding their prior gains. XAU and HUI are both higher, +.26 and +1.28 respectively. NQ 1220 remains the resistance to clear, ES 992.25 high of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  2:17:09 PM
Here's the expected test of the OEX high of the day. Let's see how the OEX performs on this test.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  2:11:19 PM
02:00 Internals ...

NYSE 5,606 +0.74% ... VOL. 864m A/D 20:12 NH/NL 314:4

NASDAQ 1,631 +0.26% ... Vol. 1.22b A/D 15:15 NH/NL 133:5

NASDAQ did get A/D back to unchanged and looks to bid after release of Beige Book.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  2:08:23 PM
Buy Program Premium Alert ... INDU 9,100, SPX 989.6, OEX 498, NDX 1,215, QQQ $30.20.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   6/11/200,  2:04:51 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Industrial stocks are trading higher today and one of the main catalysts in the blue-chip rally is International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM). Shares of Big Blue are up almost $2 at $83.50 after being added to the Merrill Lynch Focus List. The brokerage said traders should use the weakness caused by the SEC investigation to add to positions. They also noted that even though the SEC will likely look into revenue recognition practices outside POS terminals, the firm would be surprised if the findings have a significantly negative impact on the stock price from here. Merrill made one other noteworthy comment, suggesting that concerns about offshore services are overdone, and surveys indicate that IBM should gain market share in most product areas. The brokerage is maintaining a $97 target on the issue and that does not favor our recent (bearish) credit spread; JUN-90C/JUN-85C. Traders are encouraged to monitor the stock closely and make any necessary adjustments to preserve portfolio capital.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:04:05 PM
Fed: Economy "sluggish" in most US areas in Apr,May Reuters - Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:03:36 PM
2:01pm BEIGE BOOK SHOWS A FEW SIGNS OF LIFE IN US ECONOMY

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:02:43 PM
2:00pm FED SEES LITTLE INFLATION OR DEFLATION IN ECONOMY

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  2:00:05 PM
Beige book due now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  1:56:42 PM
Market Internals have been running positive at the 01:00 PM EST market for the NYSE at 19:12, but NASDAQ 14:15 have yet to show a bullish bias in today's session.

Will get updated reading at 02:00 PM, but that comes right at Beige Book in minutes.

INDU 9,083 above its WEEKLY pivot of 9,043, SPX 987.35 right near its WEEKLY pivot of 986.35, while NDX 1,210/QQQ $30.09 below their WEEKLY pivot of 1,219.6/$30.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  1:55:55 PM
Put to call ratio .66, equity pcr .47 and index pcr 1.49. No change on the indicators- carpet in my office continues to not grow.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  1:40:18 PM
Wish I could claim a learned discussion on historical PE values, Jonathan, but that was James.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  1:39:07 PM
I mentioned earlier today that a sustained OEX move over 497.90 should see the high of the day tested. The OEX just broke out of the latest five-minute bull flag to the upside, but again it's been hesitating as it nears the 498.40-498.60 level I also mentioned earlier. Obviously, the OEX has to break through this level before it can test the day's high. It appears this is an important level to watch, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  1:36:58 PM
I see a possible reverse head and shoulders on my 5 minute candle chart of ES, with the neckline right here at 990.75, projecting to a possible high of 1005.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  1:30:22 PM
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- The percentage of financial newsletter writers who were pessimistic about U.S. stocks sank to a 16-year- low last week, according to a survey by Investors Intelligence, amid a three-month rally in shares. Bearish, or pessimistic, newsletter writers fell to 16.3 percent in the latest survey from 20.7 percent a week earlier.

I'm proud to count myself among the scared and the few :)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  1:26:25 PM
With reference to Linda's comments about PE ratios, the reading I've done indicated that the last century's major bear markets ended with an average PE of between 5 and 10 at the very bottom. Obviously, we have yet to come close to these "overshoot" low levels during the current bear market.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  1:21:56 PM
Aggghh!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  1:21:18 PM
After hitting the second of its double tops on the five-minute chart, the OEX fell in a pattern of plunges and then pauses in the form of bear flags. Now that five-minute chart shows it climbing and then pausing in a pattern of bull flags that break out to the upside. Over the last thirty minutes, it's been unable to close above the 498.40 level, however, after making several attempts at that level. On a continued rise, traders should next watch that level.

 
 
  James Brown   6/11/200,  1:20:39 PM
I just read an interesting little article on historical P/E ratios and how this new bull market still has room to run. Some of the fat and lazy bears that have been ravaging the markets for the last three years are starting to growl that stocks are now becoming overvalued. We can assume they're starting to go hungry, as easy meals have been few and far between these last three months.

Currently, the average P/E for the S&P 500 for the trailing twelve months is 32.5. However, the author correctly states that current stock prices aren't based on past corporate profits but on expectations for future corporate profits. (We've harped on this idea in past market sentiment articles.) Looking ahead we can see that the S&P 500's projected P/E ratio for the next twelve months is just 22.8.

Even though I believe the markets are extremely overbought and in desperate need of a good consolidation to build a new leg higher on, this would indicate that there is plenty of room for more price appreciation. The up coming earnings season will certainly have an impact on how well this line of reasoning will work.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  1:15:57 PM
Volume measures 757 million on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq. The advancers continue to gain ground on the NYSE while the Nasdaq continues to be weaker, with decliners having a slight lead over advancers. Up volume leads on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  1:10:58 PM
For the sake of reference, the fed has 19.5B in repos expiring tomorrow: 7.75B in overnight repos, 6B in 28 day repos and 5.75B in 3 day repos.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  1:07:09 PM
The put to call ratio is up .01 to .61. Yields have risen a touch, FVX +.3 bps, TNX -1.6 bps and TYX -2.4. The volatility indices have barely budged. The indices are moving in a narrow range around unchanged. The upward tilt to the markets since Monday give this a weak bear flag appearance, but the chop is as close to aimless as it gets. I see all kinds of patterns, none of which are reliable at this time.

 
 
  James Brown   6/11/200,  1:00:12 PM
Looking for areas that might be able to support a continued rally, I noticed the Transports. The Dow Jones Transports, which has been extremely strong off its March lows, actually suffered three or four days of profit taking just recently. The group appears to be bouncing and it is not hard to imagine this group potentially reaching the 2600 level.

Of course this assumes that there aren't more profit warnings like the one from Roadway (ROAD) a few days ago.

...and we won't mention anything about higher oil prices potentially stalling any advance here either. I'm afraid the bulls wouldn't be listening if we did...

check the chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  12:46:21 PM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 76.04 +0.52% ... had been finding resistance this morning three-times at this level. 5-minute chart shows somewhat of a "cup" and today's trade a "handle."

If XAU.X can bid 76.10, should get a pop and fill its gap lower from yesterday.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  12:43:27 PM
The put to call ratio remains low at .60. Yields are now read across the curve. The TRINQ is in neutral bearish territory, QQV +.53, VXN +.26 and VIX +.17. Equities continue to meander their way higher around unchanged on the day, still a directionless session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  12:43:22 PM
NASDAQ-100 gainers/loser ICOS +6.13%, HGSI +5.03%, SANM +4.8%, YHOO +3.48%. BRCD -5.81%, FLEX -5.42%, RYAAY -4.5%, LLTC -4.47%, ADCT -4.47%, SYMC -3.39%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  12:39:39 PM
HGSI It's a NASDAQ-100 Index component. Is any other trader's making the "tie" today between it on a break above $15.41 and QQQ above $30.14 here?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  12:36:23 PM
That potential reversal signal on the OEX hourly chart didn't turn out to be as definitive as it looked as if it might be. The last hour's candle was another doji. Indecision still. The OEX currently trades up toward that 497.90 level that was confirmation of the double top on the five-minute chart. It retested that level after it first fell through it, trading as high as 498.12 before falling back again. A sustained move over that level should at least see the day's high tested again. So far, the OEX remains within its latest upward-slanting regression channel, but if that channel is truly a bear-flag channel it should be breaking down before or at about the time the OEX hits that 497.90 level. That would be a 50% retracement of the move from the day's high down to the last 496.53 low. That channel is being tested to the downside now.

 
 
  James Brown   6/11/200,  12:35:49 PM
Let's hope so, Jeff.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  12:35:15 PM
IGT Hey James! Now your looking at "my" play list. Mentioned this one the other day as bullish at $90.00 with thought to play the "90% of stocks that trade $90 trade $100" axiom.

 
 
  James Brown   6/11/200,  12:33:05 PM
IGT - Intl Game Technology was our play-of-the-day today and shares are bouncing strongly from the $90.00 level (up 1.8% today). With only 2.5 weeks left before their 4-for-1 split it should be able to maintain a lot of its momentum (barring any major market rollover). What concerns me is the complete drop off in volume, which does not denote a lot of commitment on the part of the bulls.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  12:31:12 PM
Per Jame's 12:27:02 You are exactly right James. And it was that profile on OI that actually had me looking at the stock again. When I did, I didn't like the PnF Link (below trend) but the "low pole warning" and recent relative strength buy singal were compelling. What I did like was the "break away gap" on BIG volume. It was a similar "break away gap" on BIG volume that had me so bullish in January of 2002, but at that time, the PnF was also "screaming" for a buy.

I'm not a big "fundamental" trader/investor anymore, but OHP guidance of $4.00 per share does seem to have the stock at an attractive multiple.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  12:30:59 PM
Yields have pulled back, with FVX now unchanged, TNX -2.4 bps and TYX -2.2. The rush of buyers in the tens is interesting, with the ten year yield dropping faster than the thirty.

 
 
  James Brown   6/11/200,  12:27:02 PM
OHP - I know Jeff mentioned OHP earlier today. OHP has been on the OI call list for about three weeks know. The $40.00 level is both a psychological level and overhead resistance on the point-and-figure chart. While I believe this sector will be one that bulls can play over and over again throughout the year, OHP's rally today has triggered our exit point at $40.00 (actually $39.75, per yesterday's update) and the call play is closed. Traders still in the stock would do well to tighten their stops.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  12:20:40 PM
Moody's revises Oracle outlook to negative Reuters - Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  12:20:34 PM
Human Genome (HGSI) $15.23 +4.9% ... here's a 60-minute chart of HGSI. Currently in a "zone of resistance" from WEEKLY and MONTHLY pivot analysis. Yesterday we made note of trade at $14.01, which "saved" the stock from giving a double-bottom sell signal on point figure chart at $14.00. One thing I didn't mention yesterday was 100 contracts were traded almost at the exact low of HGSI trade in the July $17.50 calls. Trade came in between bid/ask, so I couldn't say for sure if it was bull/bear induced type of trade. Link

I've told the story before of when I was broker, I held large position in Bay Networks as did clients. Had a stop on the long position at $17.95 as the stock would have given a double-bottom sell signal at $18.00. As stock was falling one day from $19.00 to $18.00, was getting ready to get stopped out. Suddenly a "bid appeared" at $18.01. I think it was 6-months later dumped the load at $40 when they were bought out at $40 by Nortel. Sometimes.... you just never know.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  12:10:47 PM
Since the double top was formed on the OEX five-minute chart, the chart is showing a series of $.50-$1.00 plunges followed by bear-flag formations and then the next plunge. As the OEX approaches the 496 level, however, it may be more resistance to breaking down out of the latest potential bear-flag pattern. It's testing the bottom of that pattern now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  12:05:34 PM
Put to call ratio is down to .59 now, with the equity pcr .43 and the index pcr 1.32.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  12:04:22 PM
On the heels of Jim's comment, the bid in June gold has moved up to 351.30, last trade was at the ask at 355.40. As we know, gold and any other commodity is a classic hedge against currency devaluation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:54:07 AM
Correction: The Beige Book is released at 2PM, not noon. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  11:50:41 AM
Is that a reversal signal I see forming on the last three OEX hourly candles (including the current one)? Here's what I'm watching: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  11:50:04 AM
QQQ $30.00 -0.56% .... here's an intra-day chart of QQQ that I have been trying to upload last 15-minutes. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:49:19 AM
A little profit taking before the Beige Book I see... Could the Fed have telegraphed it any better. I would bet that the word disinflation is used quite frequently and the economy is at a greater risk for deflation... regardless of all the Fed re-assurances that deflation will not be around.

Unfortunately, inflation is a great threat as well- it helps no one if QQQ is trading 30$ but it costs 60$ to buy a loaf of bread. Awaiting the release at noon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  11:41:41 AM
Total volume now measures 505 million on the NYSE and 767 million on the Nasdaq. Patterns continue to shift, with advancers ahead 18:13 on the NYSE but advancers behind 14:15 on the Nasdaq. Up volume is slightly ahead on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. There are only 6 new lows, but new highs are lower, too, at 330 for the NYSE and Nasdaq combined.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:36:08 AM
The volatility indices, which are rapidly endearing themselves to me, have been lightly positive all morning, despite the move above yesterday's highs. QQV is up .62, VXN +.26 and VIX +.10. The TRINQ is .67, TICK.NQ +51, and yields slipping back lower, with FVX up a mere .5 bps currently. Equities still look fragile to me, but the persistence above support is bullish- it looks like a good recipe for further sideways chop.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:35:53 AM
The volatility indices, which are rapidly endearing themselves to me, have been lightly positive all morning, despite the move above yesterday's highs. QQV is up .62, VXN +.26 and VIX +.10. The TRINQ is .67, TICK.NQ +51, and yields slipping back lower, with FVX up a mere .5 bps currently. Equities still look fragile to me, but the persistence above support is bullish- it looks like a good prescription for further sideways chop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  11:32:24 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:29:29 AM
The US Attorney's Office has announced its probe into FRE. That's now the SEC and US Attorney both investigating the second-largest mortgage debt issuer. More fuel for the Kondratieff Winter.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:21:44 AM
The put to call ratio has dipped to .64, with the equity pcr at .48 and the index pcr 1.36.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  11:20:45 AM
The OEX shows a miniature double-top pattern on the five-minute chart, confirmed with a fall through 487.90. That predicts a fall toward 497.20, not enough to risk an OEX play, of course, but perhaps deep enough to test the 497.50 support. That's being tested as I type.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:19:48 AM
For what it's worth, I've just taken a small position in GE July puts at current levels on a lottery basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  11:07:22 AM
QQQ $30.32 +0.49% .... didn't get the pullback to $30.12, will keep bid at $30.12, or cancel bid with bullish trade in QQQ on break to day's high of $30.36. Current intra-day high has been $30.35.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  11:07:05 AM
Reader Question: What are your thoughts on the violated trend line in OEX in the short term?

Response: It's been my thought that the OEX has spent this week rising to retest the violated ascending regression channel. Since that channel was violated, normal expectations would be for the retest to be unsuccessful and for the OEX to be turned back from that level (currently between 503.50-505, depending on how the channel is drawn) if it should reach that high. Sometimes markets don't rise all the way before retreating again. However, since this was a rather steep channel, and it's normal for markets to consolidate and form a new and gentler-sloping ascending trendline, it's not impossible that the OEX could continue to rise along the underside of the channel. Perhaps its angle might be less steep as it does so.

I, like many others, believe that the markets need a steeper pullback to digest recent gains, but I find myself unsure right now whether that will happen just yet. Last week's key-reversal day gave hope that those gains could be digested and we could get further feedback about the strength or weakness of the trend, but as I noted on Monday, key-reversal days are sometimes minor reversal signals. That certainly proved to be true and we didn't get the needed pullback.

I note that daily ADX increases again, as does the buying pressure line. With the trend's strength increasing again, it's possible the OEX will continue to power up a while longer, despite the long overbought oscillators. With an ADX currently over 30, we certainly can't trust any "sell" signals given by the oscillators, so we're left with watching important averages, most left far behind now, and price action itself. Jane often speaks of her no-trade-zone with reference to a certain time of day she doesn't trade, and this is my no-trade-zone, with reference to nearby strong resistance and nearby strong support for the OEX. I wouldn't want to trade long until there's a breakout above last week's high, but neither would I want to initiate new short positions until there's a clear reversal.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:04:10 AM
Great alternative, Alan, thanks!

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  11:01:12 AM
US Military Launches 'Operation Peninsula Strike' In Iraq Dow Jones Business News - Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:57:42 AM
Oxford Health (OHP) $39.80 +2.6% ... nice litte "pop" this morning and might look to be a "running gap" after "breakaway" gap Link on BIG volume from May 5th. Yesterday, company affirmed FY 03 EPS of $4.17-$4.27. In this weekend's "Ask the Analyst" column we discussed the terms "breakaway, running and exhaustion" gap.Link

Disclosure: Still holding bullish position in OHP Aug $35 calls from prior bullish profile.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:54:24 AM
gold hit support what your charts say?Or any updates?

June gold has a last trade at 350.20, with the spread currently 350.30 x 355.60. Next support is at the 345 level. Because the daily cycle oscillators have not given a buy signal, even the most aggressive bulls should not be thinking of taking on a full position at current levels. A better buy would be off 345 support if we see it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:50:30 AM
QQQ $30.22 +0.16% ... will stick a bullish bid in at $30.12, stop $29.78 target $30.75

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  10:48:10 AM
The SOX traded up almost to the lower limit of its gap down this morning, but hasn't yet quite made it over that level. The open was at 377.47, and the SOX's last advance brought it to 376.60. Hourly ADX shows selling pressure increasing, and hourly 5(3)3 stochastics have rolled down, but other hourly indicators are mixed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:44:13 AM
Yields have recovered, with FVX up 1.4 bps, TNX down .5 bps and TYX down 2.5 bps.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:42:36 AM
10:42am JULY CRUDE UP 69C AT $32.42/BRL, A THREE-MONTH HIGH

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:42:20 AM
The put to call ratio dropped to .66, with an equity pcr .52 and index pcr 1.23.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  10:41:47 AM
The TRAN trails its sister index this morning, with the TRAN up only .11% and the DJI up .53%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  10:37:41 AM
Volume patterns still shift around, with advancers beating decliners 15:13 on the NYSE but with advancers behind on the Nasdaq 11:15. Up and down volume are still neck and neck on both. Even though volume patterns improve and those inside day patterns have been broken to the upside, the significant overhead resistance makes me leery of initiating long trades on the OEX at this level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:33:23 AM
New highs for NQ at 1220, ES 990.25, QQQ 30.31.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:33:13 AM
QQQ $30.23 +0.16% ... here come the bears and their short-covering.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:31:49 AM
QQQ $30.12 -0.09% .... will look for day trade long on pullback to $30.04. QQQ doing battle with the upper-end of our bullish wedge right here, but will use SPX observation of strength to be looking long.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:29:35 AM
SPX here's my intra-day chart of SPX with DAILY (gold/brown) retracement overlaid. Screen capture was just prior to upside alert at WEEKLY Pivot. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:26:54 AM
SPX 986.35 +0.17% .... 5-minute bar didn't see a close above 986.35, but that doesn't mean it won't. Going to stop out of bearish SPX trade from 982 profile.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:26:34 AM
The US Dollar Index is failing to bounce, while June gold holds 352.20, unchanged. Equity futures are up to flat now, ES +.50 and NQ -.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:23:26 AM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) two upside alerts. First at SPX WEEKLY Pivot of 986.35 and second is buy program premium alert.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:17:39 AM
Does the site you use to track open market ops and their correlation to the market also have something like a cumulative Adv/Dec line, TICK or "Money Flow" that tracks the effect of additions and subtractions over time. In the last few months the FED appears to have been consistently adding more than expires. The net effect would be an interesting

No such direct correlation exists to my knowledge. But the cumulative fed holdings and MZM (money supply) have been mostly vertical this year. There are no accidents in this market. Reader AB has asked if the fed is subject to the SEC's jurisdiction- good one, but I doubt it. However, I've been hearing that GATA, in its suit against Barrick, is raising such fundamental issues. Some good depositions, I've heard, but nothing from which I can quote.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  10:17:06 AM
Those earliest volume patterns are beginning to shift, with advancing volume and declining volume now neck-and-neck on the NYSE, and with up and down volume neck-and-neck on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Decliners still far outnumber advancers on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  10:14:40 AM
S&P 500 (SPX) 985.55 +0.07% ... session high of 986.17 in last 5-minutes comes just under WEEKLY Pivot of 986.35, but current trade has seen a 5-minute interval close above the MONTHLY R1 of 985. Bears need some selling here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:10:46 AM
The SEC criminal investigation into FRE is now official.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:05:19 AM
A truly directionless morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  10:04:26 AM
Earliest volume patterns--often distorted--show more decliners than advancers and bigger down than up volume.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:03:44 AM
Opening put to call ratio .84.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  10:01:18 AM
The fed has announced a 7.75B overnight repo, which refunds the 3B expiring for a 4.75B net addition.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  9:57:44 AM
Geron (GERN) $8.43 +6% .... Company announced that Human Fertilization & Embryology Authority of United Kingdom has authorized the Rosline Institute to derive new human embryonic stem cells (hES) for donated excess embryos created as a result of in vitro fertilization.

Geron said the additional hES cell lines it expects to derive at Roslin will expand its current resource of six hES lines. GERN is developing hES cell-based approaches to treating spinal cord injury, Parkinson's disease, heart failure, diabetes, and other diseases.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  9:51:41 AM
Friday's retreat in the $SOX drove the index away from its top Bollinger band, and this week's action continues the retreat toward midline average support at 365.26. The SOX currently trades at 368.79. That midline support also comes near the support offered by one version of the rising trendline (best fit, rather than absolute lows) off the February 13 low, so that level should provide support if the SOX is merely digesting gains. If not and if there's more weakness, we might have a better idea what to expect from the other indices since the SOX often leads.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  9:48:24 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,059 +0.04% ... fractional green here, but alert to broader market strength.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  9:46:32 AM
Above 980 ES and 1200 NQ, it looks like a dip-buyer's market, but the inability to break away from those levels is bearish- so far, still no direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  9:43:44 AM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 982.04 -0.28% ... morning high of 984.84 matches yesterday's high. Another "inside day" today?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  9:43:22 AM
Here's what I'm showing on the hourly OEX chart, with respect to the rising regression channel that was violated last week, and the subsequent retest. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  9:41:16 AM
United Health (UNH) $99.87 +1.04% ... trades the "psychological" $100.00 early in session and now looks to challenge 52-week high and "tweezer top" of $101.00 from October 21-22.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  9:39:20 AM
In addition to the Beige book released today, Fed talk continues, as Treasury Undersecretary Taylor and Fed Chair Ferguson speak before the House. If Jonathan is lucky (or unlucky?), his favorite Fed member might also add comments.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  9:37:07 AM
FVX is crreping up, down .9 bps now, QQV up 1.49 to 30.05. TRINQ .66, TICK.NQ -354. Uncertain chop, but not nearly as bullish as it looked from yesterday's close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/11/200,  9:36:50 AM
Biotechs ... Merrill Lynch out with morning call on biotechs and thoughts recent weakness is profit-taking and probably over and now poised to move higher. Thinks money flows into mutual funds has turned increasingly positive while new stock coming to market is minimal. Merrill also thinks FDA has become more accommodating, positive newsflows should continue, valuations still within historical ranges, and window dressing for the quarter should bode well for the group.

Credit Suisse also raisng price targets on AMGN Link , IDPH Link , GENZ Link , BGEN Link , MEDI Link , DNA Link , HGSI Link , MLNM Link , NBIX Link , ICOS Link , MYGN Link , GILD Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  9:18:59 AM
Bears are all abuzz at new sentiment records set today amongst advisors: 58.7% bulls vs. 56.5 last and 16.3% bears vs. 20.7 last

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  9:17:07 AM
93.93 for the US Dollar Index now, and June gold is holding up, abeit poorly. Slight recovery in NQ and ES, 1209 and 986.50 respectively.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  8:33:08 AM
Bonds are being bought again, new record highs, with VX -2.9 bps, TNX -3.8 to 3.156%, and TYX -2.7 bps. I will be discussing some of the vast implications in this collapse in the value of money in tonight's market wrap.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  8:29:58 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted gauge of overall mortgage requests fell to 1,684.6 for the week ended June 6, down 9.3 percent from the record 1,856.7 set the previous week. Last week's drop snapped a five-week streak of gains for the index.

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/11/200,  8:04:19 AM
Reloading Market Monitor App (reconnect in 5 minutes)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/11/200,  7:59:08 AM
Well, it looks as if INTC might finally crack from these recent nosebleed highs. TXN, CYMI have both warned. QQQ is down 24 cents to 29.94, NQ -9.50 and ES -2 at 1205.50 and 984.75 respectively, still above support. The Teflon Market appears to know only support, but the SOX could lead it lower. June gold is up 2.30 to 354.50, and the USD Index has done a cliff dive to 93.04.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/11/200,  7:07:42 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened up 45.37 points Wednesday morning, but market participants weren't satisfied with a 45.37-point gain for long. The Nikkei charged up all morning, reaching a high of 8957.67 before the midday break. After the break, the Nikkei climbed as high as 9007.29 before retreating more than 100 points at the end of trading. The Nikkei closed at 8890.30, up 101.21 points or 1.15%. Other Asian markets were mixed. Taiwan's Weighted closed down 0.57%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 0.43%, South Korea's Kospi closed up 0.24%, and Singapore's Strait Times closed up 0.55%.

Although the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting was ending later in Wednesday's trading day, the early gains were largely attributed to the late-day performance of the U.S. markets. The afternoon leap above 9000 came after the BOJ announced measures intended to help small and midsized companies raise funds. Wednesday's gains could perhaps also be partly attributed to Canon's forecast of a 78% increase in first-half profit due to cost cuts in production and better-than-expected sales of digital cameras and color copiers. The company said that sales of digital cameras should rise 37%. Canon gained 5.4% after its report. Canon's forecast proves somewhat difficult to understand in light of the recently released industrial production number. That number showed that April orders for semiconductor machinery and digital cameras declined, driving industrial production down 1.2%, and seems contrary to Canon's forecast.

Japan saw a slew of economic numbers released over the last few days, and few were positive. The GDP did provide relief in the it's-bad-but-we-expected-worse category, because it rose 0.1%. Economists had predicted zero growth for the first quarter. Exports fell 0.4%, less than the previously estimated 0.5%. Business spending disappointed, however, rising a less-than-expected 0.7%. A different government report also indicated that April overseas sales declined 1%. Prognosticators talk about recession again, renewing calls for Prime Minister Koizumi to spend on public works to increase employment.

European markets trade up this morning, with insurers leading the gains. Royal Bank of Scotland announced an agreement to buy Credit Suisse Group's Churchill Insurance Group. In other stock-specific news, chipmaker Infineon benefited from an upgrade by Citigroup to outperform from in-line. According to a Bloomberg report, Chubb agreed to a takeover offer from United Technology. Nokia also gained.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has risen 28.30 points or 0.69%, to 4141.30. The CAC has climbed 25.54 points or 0.83%, to 3109.39; and the DAX has risen 26.43 points or 0.84%, to 3166.77.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  9:54:39 PM
S&P futures (sp03m) 987.80 ... getting an upside alert here this evening on an "upside alert" I had set at futures high prior to TXN warning. May actually bring in some short-covering here. I am seeing some activity even at this later hour.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/10/200,  8:24:32 PM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/10/200,  8:24:25 PM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   6/10/200,  8:23:51 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives