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  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  9:41:59 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  4:30:40 PM
NASDAQ-100 weighting ADBE has 0.85% weighting. ORCL has 3.07% weighting.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  4:28:59 PM
Adobe Systems (ADBE) ... company saying it is targeting Q3 revenue at $300-$315 million, which would appear to surround consensus of $311.6 million.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  4:27:00 PM
Adobe Systems (ADBE) $35.98 +0.44% .... stock hit lower at $32.71. Not sure what's going on here. Headline number had company reporting $0.28 per share, which was 2-cent better than consensus.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  4:22:47 PM
QQQ ... bad tick at $30.01 for 402,400 shares, so ... no, I didn't get filled at $30.03 per 16:00:26 comments.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  4:21:11 PM
Oracle (ORCL) $13.33 +0.45% ... higher at $13.58 after reporting Q4 EPS of $0.16, which was 2-cents better than consensus. Revenues rose 2.1% year-over-year to $2.83 billion versus $2.74 billion.

QQQ $30.65 +0.42% trading $30.65.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  4:18:40 PM

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  4:04:34 PM
Alan you should have read last night's Index Trader Wrap! Predicted a Dow close of 9,196.50!

Just kidding...

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  4:00:26 PM
Never know, but... QQQ traders might want to watch the after-hours trade and look bullish the QQQ at $30.03, should ORCL, or Larry Ellison stick his foot in his mouth on earnings.

I'd take the QQQ long on ORCL negativity (if found) and look to dump it back out at $30.27.

I've seen some wild things in QQQ after-hours on knee-jerk reactions to things.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  3:54:29 PM
Jeff, when I first heard the (misguided) Guidant news, in which a stent was mentioned, my first question was how the competitors would be affected. Would it be good news for them? Or would they get pulled down, too? Glad I'm not the kind of trader who just jumps into a play--got over that somewhere around the middle of 2000--because from your synopsis, it appears that I would have been choosing the wrong competitors anyway, based on the information I first heard. Thanks for the information on competitors, too.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  3:51:13 PM
Linda My first thought on GDT was "coated stent" too, and why I quickly looked at JNJ and BSX. What looked to take place was other traders thought the same thing, but how "smart" is a market, when JNJ, which didn't see any analyst comments today, didn't advance much after a 10-minute bump in price. I think the MARKET and followers of coated stent knew immediately of what the GDT news was about. Evidently, GDT news was regarding a "catheter" type of device.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  3:48:25 PM
As of a few moments ago, total volume was 1.3 billion for the NYSE and 1.5 for the NYSE. Advancers lead by 18:15 on the NYSE and advancers trail on the NYSE by 15:16. Down volume is ahead of up volume on the NYSE, while up volume is ahead of down volume on the Nasdaq. None of the differences is great, however, ending the day with neutral volume patterns.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  3:46:24 PM
Oxford Health (OHP) $42.47 +3.95% ... I'm a bit "surprised" with today's volume build at 1.593 million shares on a 3% jump in price, considering yesterday's 1.56 million shares.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  3:41:11 PM
QQQ $30.58 +0.19% .... Hmmmm... maybe I should have shown some "conviction" for a bullish trade back at $30.32. QQQ now challenging the very short-term downward trend from Friday's high to this morning's "pop" higher of $30.75. I think Jonathan discussed this trend earlier today.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  3:37:26 PM
Jeff has reported fully on the Guidant (GDT) information in his latest Intraday Update. It appears that my first information was wrong and that the problems were not with their stent. Alas, Jonathan, your "stent stunt" jibe, good as it might have been, will go to waste. Readers wanting more information on GDT's problem should turn to Jeff's Intraday Update.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  3:33:26 PM
03:15 intra-day update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  3:25:16 PM
The real whoosh up in the afternoon usually has been beginning between 3:15-3:30 ET this week. It looks as if this latest move up arrived right on time. Let's see if it holds.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  3:23:18 PM
The Roger Line is violated by the current print of 30.47, but I see no festive buying orgy as one might otherwise expect. If this is the best that the bulls can make of a cycle upturn, then maybe the last buyer really has committed.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  3:18:48 PM
New IPO FORM now trades at 17.38, down from the day's high of 21, but up from the day's low of $17.00. It's traded almost 6 million shares. Shades of 1999!

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  3:15:23 PM
The Roger Line continues to hold and will form a descending triange with the 30.30 50% retracement line. We now have a 10 cent range on this intraday formation, with price adhering to the descending top.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  3:12:33 PM
So far, Roger in Oklahoma's descending trendline is holding back the short cycle upphase on the Qubes.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  3:10:19 PM
As AB notes, so far, no blast. GE was in launch mode and then abruptly reversed back down. It must not yet be known that I have renewed my put position on it.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  3:02:58 PM
Here comes the 3:00 pm shopping spree that someone executes for the last few weeks. Let's see how far it goes.

Yes. I have an up-phase starting on the short cycle stoch for the Qubes.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  2:54:33 PM
There seems to be a strong intraday downtrend line building on the QQQs. What is your take on what it might mean. /Roger in Oklahoma....

Roger, I think it means down-doobie-doo-down-down, except for the 30.30 support level. The downtrend you note is the descending trendline on the pennant I was following from this morning, but the inability to get the Qubes below the 30.30 low is not bearish. As Linda correctly states, this is a tough, choppy session. A short from a failure at 30.50 could be a decent entry, but at this point, it would appear safer to follow the momentum and enter on a break below the low of the day, if we get it.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  2:50:43 PM
Jane, Jeff, Alan H., Jonathan, and I all use different signals and some of us trade different markets, but we were all predicting chop today, and all frustrated in our attempts to find tradable signals, other than Alan's short this morning. If I had tried to force a trade today, I'd have been caught up in this chop. Better to save my energies for a better day . . .unless something exciting happens next hour. We can always hope, can't we?

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  2:40:42 PM
Volume patterns show slightly more weakness, but it's nothing definitive yet.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  2:33:56 PM
Flatline for the Qubes. Some spiky sell volume has come in but no movement yet. GE seems to be weakening, which is a nice change of pace, but with the intraday short cycle oscillators getting bottomy, we could see bounces anytime.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  2:25:49 PM
I do note, however, that the VIX has bumped above 23 again . . . well, I did it again. I moved the VIX by writing about it. It's now just below 23, at 22.99.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  2:24:24 PM
I agree with Jeff, too. I keep watching those volume patterns, but they're not signaling anything. The OEX sure looks as if it's rounding over from that second top on the hourly chart, doesn't it? But that's only if you're looking through bears' glasses. If you're looking through the bulls' version, you see some natural consolidation ahead of a renewed assault.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  2:22:00 PM
Agree, Jeff. That's how it looks from here.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  2:20:37 PM
Having a tough time building any type of conviction behind a trade today. While tempted to buy the QQQ here at $30.32, not sure a target of $30.51 is worth it at this point.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  2:14:26 PM
For reference, the European markets closed as follows: the FTSE closed up 11.20 points or 0.27 points, pulling off a "save" in the last hour of trading as it dipped to the flatline level and then recovered. The CAC 40 closed up 30.26 points or 0.97%, at 3152.16; and the DAX closed up 41.32 points or 1.30%, at 3219.47.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  2:12:36 PM
Put to call ratio .86, with the index component 1.22 and the equity component .77. The downside break from the QQQ pennant seems to be reversing off the 30.30 50% retracement line, and the lack of followthrough could be one of those fakeout reversals that we've been seeing on wedges and pennants increasingly during the past 4 or 5 weeks. Watch 30.50, which is the tip of the pennant and should not get breached.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  2:11:33 PM
02:00 Internals ...

NYSE 5,630 -0.28% .... Vol: 894m A/D 18:14 NH/NL 392:3

NASDAQ 1,645 -0.03% .... Vol: 1.18b A/D 1520:1529 NH/NL 223:4

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  2:07:49 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $38.25 +2.32% .... fielded a question not long ago from a trader looking at SNDK as a short/put candidate. Stock makes a new 52-week high today and not unlike the technicals in BXS, one has to wonder if SNDK might not still have some upside left with a bullish vertical count of.... $81.50. Link

Was looking at short interest. NASDAQ shows May 15 short interest at 15.15 million, which was down from an April 15 high of 16.59 million shares. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  1:59:23 PM
Boston Scientific (BSX) $60.67 +1.69% ... 13:46:52 follow-up. I see that Prudential was making some comments this morning regarding BSX. Pru upgraded to "buy" from "hold" based on comments by BSX's CFO Larry Best that its Taxus IV trial had not only met its primary endpoint, but that the data showed the Taxus IV may be competitive with JNJ's. Pru believes that BSX's valuation at 20-times 2004 consensus is attractive and considering the now-lower "scientific risk" it sees minimal downside from current levels, with a price target of $78. Link

Hmmm... PnF has been bullish for some time hasn't it? Bullish vertical count of $93 (column of X from $24-$46) still in play.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  1:55:39 PM
Note that the OEX's descent steepened at 1:46 ET, one minute after my often-mentioned-most-hated time of day. I hate it because it's a time when support or resistance is tested, with stops often being run before the market reverses. Be careful.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  1:52:57 PM
CNBC just announced that Gregory Peck has died. A bad day, today.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  1:52:20 PM
Jeff's intraday update, with its great synopsis of the market action, reminds me to mention again, as I did both Friday and Monday, that key reversal days are seen as minor reversals. They're viewed with some seriousness, however, since they occur after a prolonged run-up and that minor reversal can precipitate a greater one. That didn't happen, obviously. We got the minor reversal only. We'll eventually get a normal pullback or else a prolonged period of consolidation while daily and weekly oscillators reset to oversold, but if the OEX closes above last week's highs and particularly if it closes above 507, I'd expect a try for 518-520. If it instead breaks down through this recent consolidation band, and particularly if it closes below the hourly 21-pma, I'd expect a move down to the double-top confirmation level at 490 as a start.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  1:49:26 PM
Getting a potential downside break of the QQQ pennant, but need a volume spike to confirm.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  1:46:51 PM
Guidant (GDT) ... trading halt had me looking at JNJ $53.71 +1.33% and BSX $61.02 +2% ... both saw some upside price action on the GDT news. Both are "competitors" in the coated stent market, with JNJ and GDT the only ones with FDA approvals at this point.

  Ray Cummins   6/12/200,  1:43:58 PM
Spread/Combos & Premium-Selling -- New Positions

Despite today's lackluster activity, there have been some excellent "premium selling" opportunities for bullish traders. Omnivision Technologies (NASDAQ:OVTI) aapears to be the only issue that did not achieve the target entry, even though the issue declined over $2 in early trading. Our new bearish plays in Xylinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) and Linear Technology (NASDAQ:LLTC) offered favorable prices during the morning session but one stock that did not cooperate is Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) as the issue opened higher and continued to rally, in spite of the broad consolidation in the major equity averages. Based on our quote tracking system, the bull-put spread at $30 offered no more than a $0.20 credit on a simultaneous order basis. The bear-call position in Cigna (NYSE:CI) was also somewhat difficult, however a credit of $0.50 was observed near the market open.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  1:43:19 PM
Remember IPO's? FormFactor (FORM) currently trades at 18.15 after being priced at $14, above its original expectations of $11-13/share, and opening today at $19. The company makes tools used in semiconductor manufacturing, specifically wafer probe cards that allow advanced tests and speed the manufacturing process.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  1:41:20 PM
To be known as the Guidant stent stunt, Linda? Sorry...

The US Dollar Index is down to 92.91, and August gold at 354, with XAU +.19 and HUI -.29. FVX is now down 5.1 bps, TNX -3.2. QQV is up .45, TRINQ .71 and TICK.NQ +87. This neutral array of indicators follows the QQQ in the pinhole of its pennant. A breakout is due any minute.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  1:38:14 PM
Guidant (GDT) has been halted due to an imbalance of orders, after news was leaked that its CEO has been charged with 10 felony counts associated with FDA approval of a stent, I believe.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  1:27:25 PM
Quiet here. I noticed a news release today from the hapless Bank of Canada, which, you'll recall, hiked rates not once but twice earlier this year. That move caused the vertical CDN dollar rally which has so demolished my US paychecks, and so confounded me that I bought a Cdn bond fund, reasoning that higher rates would equal a higher dollar, which would hurt trade with our number one importer, the US, and cause the BOC to eventually lower again. Since then, my bond fund is up, and unemployment in Canuckistan has reached 7.8%. Our clueless central banker, David Dodge, has observed that he might need to take the value of the dollar into account in reaching his next policy decision. The whole process took the BoC months to muddle through. Go figure.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  1:13:30 PM
I was just comparing the SOX to the SMH and DJ US Semiconductor Index (DJUSSC), noting that while the SOX was down 1.62%, the SMH was down only 1.17% and the DJUSSC is down only .4%. Although all are weak, perhaps the SOX's weakness is exacerbated by the additions and drops from the index.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  12:59:26 PM
Oxford Health (OHP) $42.35 +4.18% .... I need to read up on some type of legislation that seems to benefit the HMO's. I hear it mentioned on CNBC, but I haven't read up on it. MARKET sure seems to be going after OHP though doesn't it?

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  12:56:40 PM
QQQ volume question here's a 60-minute chart of the QQQ. Question from trader is regarding some observations he/she made regarding this morning's volume comparisons. My point here is that on Friday morning, trading curbs were in place as the Dow Industrials (INDU) had risen more than 150-points and program trading curbs were in place. So... I can't really may a true comparison of volumes as today.... trading curbs have not been in place. In a way, we would be comparing "apples to oranges." Link

I do like the ability of the trader to at least be looking around for clues and more importantly DIVERGENCE.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  12:49:32 PM
Upper descending trendline on the pennant is being test here at 30.53 QQQ.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  12:36:49 PM
On the OEX 60-minute chart, CCI, RSI, and stochastics are saying "sell." Trouble is, the hourly ADX turned up again on Tuesday and now measures 25.29, well within a zone which tells me I might not be able to trust those sell signals. Today, I've been watching the OEX curl over and under a trendline I've had drawn off the May 20 lows on one of my charts, a slightly different and lower trendline than shows up as the bottom support of the big regression channel I've been showing. There's been neither a definitive breakdown nor a definitive push above it.

Volume patterns keep switching around while staying within a range that could be broadly defined as "neutral," so they're not giving any help, either. I don't have a system like Jane's, but I do have a plan that requires me to have confirmation from at least a majority if not all of the intermarket relationships that I'm on the right side of a trade, and I don't have that yet today. That's frustrating, but not as frustrating as it would be if I'd entered a trade this morning and been sitting here all this time stuck in the chop. My plan kept me out of the chop. (By the way, while I was typing, those hourly stochastics and RSI have been trying to hinge back up again.)

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  12:35:10 PM
Intel (INTC) $22.09 +0.86% ... matches its December high here today. Intra-day high of $22.34 just shy of a 52-weeker, which would have been its June 18th high of $22.99.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  12:31:16 PM
QQQ has reached its upper ascending trendline, in the narrow part of the pennant. Yields are lower still, FVX -4.8 bps, TNX -3.4 and TYX -3.1 bps. TRINQ just .77, TICK.NQ -38. QQV +.65.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  12:22:33 PM
12:00 Internals ...

NYSE 5,636 -0.18% .... VOL: 593m A/D 17:13 NH/NL 343:2

NASDAQ 1,647 +0.11% .. VOL: 839m A/D 152:139 NH/NL 197:4

  Andy Aronson   6/12/200,  12:21:09 PM
July Sugar really closed weak today. 644 This sets the stage to run at our target of 636. We will see if we can close out this winner by the end of the week.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  12:18:18 PM
Volume patterns remain as trendless as the markets do. Currently, advancers lead on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, but not by large proportions. Up and down volume are even on the NYSE and up volume is 1.4 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 641 million on the NYSE and 898 million on the Nasdaq.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  12:11:34 PM
Wow. Did you hear Ralph Bloch with Raymond James on CNBC just now saying that he sold every share of stock as of two days ago and now doesn't own a single share?

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  12:11:24 PM
Put to call ratio .85, equity pcr .73 and index 1.27, returning to a bearish configuration with index pcr rising and equity pcr falling.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  12:00:03 PM
Yields are hitting new lows, FVX -4.3 bps, TNX -2.7 and TYX -2.3. The Qubes failed to clear the upper descending trendline resistance and are headed for 30.42 fib support, a few cents above the rising lower trendline on our intraday pennant. A stochastic cross is starting, and if it doesn't reverse here, we get a fresh short cycle downphase.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  11:57:41 AM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) $76.66 +0.47% ... session high here and has now filled back to the upside, its gap lower from Tuesday morning. Point of resistance may be 77.34, which is the "left shoulder" of potential reverse head/shoulder pattern discussed. However, on Thursday and Friday of last week, this level was violated to upside at 78.36. Link

AMEX Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) 145.68 -0.04% also at best levels of session. This is the UNWEIGHTED index, and it violated its "head/shoulder" top pattern on right shoulder break higher at 139.00. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:55:09 AM
His book, Washington Goes to War, was one of my favorites when I was a teenager.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:51:38 AM
I will be missing this event today to be right here with all of you- it passes within spitting distance of my place: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:44:18 AM
It looks like an intraday pennant on the QQQ, but a break above that ascending trendline would also be a messy hunchback head and shoulders: Link

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  11:40:49 AM
It's tempting to over-analyze chart formations and oscillator action today, but that can be dangerous to my account and yours. I could stand back and say there's a double top forming or I could take another look and say that highs are being tested and the OEX is going to push past last week's high this afternoon and then keep going. Instead, I'm trying to be patient and watch the real developments and not get caught in the chop.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  11:37:45 AM
11:00 Internals .....

NYSE 5,644 -0.04% ... Vol: 365m A/D 15:13 NH/NL 299:2

NASDAQ 1,654 +0.51% .... Vol: 593m A/D 139:135 NH/NL 160:3

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:37:35 AM
The put to call ratio is down to .86. The US Dollar Index has slipped back to the 93 level.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:29:27 AM
QQQ is climbing above the 23.6% retracement off its opening high of 30.57, resistance which had held for the past hour. It's up against bollinger band resistance but still in its short cycle up phase.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:28:20 AM

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  11:25:42 AM
If the OEX clears and closes above last week's high, what's next resistance? There's slight resistance at 507, but next slight-but-slightly-stronger resistance lies between 518-520. Above that lies stronger resistance between 550-561, with 561.23 representing the 38.2% retracement of the OEX plunge from its March 2000 high of 846.40 (unbelievable, right?) to its July 2002 low of 384.96.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:21:28 AM
August gold is recovering lost ground, now down 2.30 on the day at 353.90. XAU is up .17 while HUI is down .61.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:13:19 AM
Put to call ratio rises to .91, equity pcr .85 and index pcr 1.13.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:11:52 AM
Both the sox and the btk are negative today, -3.84 and -5.44 respectively. Yields are slipping, FVX -2.3 bps, TNX -1.5 and TYX -1.9 bps. Despite this, the TRINQ shows strong buy pressure at .61, TICK.NQ +129, QQV +.72.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  11:11:10 AM
The OEX five-minute chart now shows the beginning of a lower high, complete with bearish divergence on the 5(3)3 stochastics, but those volume patterns remain near neutral levels, not giving a clue as to final direction today. Lately, with other indicators all overbought and giving unreliable signals when they turn down, volume patterns have been somewhat more reliable. Strong volume patterns means continued upside even with other indicators showing overbought levels, weak volume patterns may mean a small retracement, and mixed volume patterns lately have predicted chop or consolidation.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  11:03:13 AM
So far there have been no further temporary or permanent open market ops announced by the fed, and so the source of funds for the move higher in treasuries and in equities remains elusive. The US Dollar Index is only modestly up, and so it looks like either short covering or fund buying that's supporting the simultaneous moves higher.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:56:23 AM
We should enter Ballmer in the market timers competition.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  10:54:43 AM
Volume patterns steady now, so I'm not getting any confirmation from them that the potential double top will be confirmed. The OEX didn't drop out of that congestion zone, either, of course. So far, those mixed intermarket relationships are still giving mixed signals, but in this market, that typically means either more chop or higher prices ahead, the only two choices seemingly available!

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:50:28 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer on Wednesday filed documentation with the Securities and Excahnge Commission to sell nearly 6.6 million shares of his company's stock. In two separate documents, Ballmer filed to sell Microsoft sharew worth a total of about $162 million. The filings come after Ballmer, in late May filed to sell $950 million worth of Microsoft.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:48:28 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:45:27 AM
I hate those high put to call readings. QQQ is in an upphase on my intraday 5 minute chart 26-3-18 stochastic, but is up against bollinger band resistance. Volume is declining on this latest bounce, but I hestitate to call it a bullflag just yet. Ascending trendline support is at 30.30, the 50% intraday fib retracement. Above that, it looks bullish.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  10:42:29 AM
Decliners now lead on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, but by small 14:15 and 12:15 ratios. Down volume is now 1.7 times up volume on the NYSE but only 1.05 times up volume on the Nasdaq, a neutral reading. Total volume is 277 million on the NYSE and 484 million on the Nasdaq. Again, these numbers are not terribly bearish yet, but the trajectory remains toward weakness. If this continues, I may feel more comfortable with bearish trades, but the OEX would have to drop out of its current congestion zone first.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:41:00 AM
Human Genome (HGSI) $15.21 -0.19% ... has been "all over the map" like a more volatile biotech will be this morning, but showing some relative strength this morning with Biotech Index (BTK.X) 475.09 -1.35%.

High/low for HGSI has been $15.84 to $14.80.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:39:41 AM
c hi jon, mike here, could u post a request for keith to update his elliot wave for today??? thanks mike

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:38:36 AM
The put to call ratio is up to .86, which is getting unpleasantly high for bears' liking.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:36:36 AM
QQQ $31.52 (unch) ... looks to recover back from our initial "zone of support" from DAILY/WEEKLY retracement shown in last night's Index Wrap. Will note QQQ never saw a 5-minute close below the WEEKLY pivot $30.30, despite dips to session low of $30.26.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:32:03 AM
Amex Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) 144.97 -0.52% ... potential for an "inside day" setup here. Had a nice little upside move 6 sessions ago from an "inside day" setup. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:25:42 AM
August Fed Funds Futures (ff03Q) 99.155 .... rising again today and now predicting a better-than 60% probability of a 50 basis point cut between now and August meeting.

This morning on CNBC, interview with futures trader had him thinking the market would be surprised (his market) if the Fed didn't cut 25 basis points at June meeting as jobless claims are biggest concern in regards to consumer confidence.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  10:21:16 AM
Those earliest volume patterns are beginning to shift now, with decliners and down volume now ahead on the Nasdaq, but with advancers and up volume still holding a slight lead on the NYSE. The trajectory has been toward weaker patterns, however.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:18:10 AM
Oxford Health (OHP) $42.15 +3.66% ... Jeff: Is it possible that today's further gap higher is the exhaustion gap? Will an exhaustion gap come so soon?

Good question. I haven't seen an "exhaustion gap" come just after a "running gap." Usually find an "exhaustion gap" weeks or months later. For now... lets call today's "gap" the "sprinting gap!" Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:16:59 AM
Put to call ratio .75, equity pcr .70 and index pcr .94. This sharp drop in the index pcr should be bullish, but it's an often-unreliable indicator.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:15:29 AM
Inventories at auto dealers ballooned in April by 1.2 percent, sending total stocks at U.S. firms up by 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Inventories increased 0.3 percent in March. Meanwhile, sales at U.S. retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers fell 1.5 percent in April, the biggest decline since the terror attacks in September 2001. For the most part, firms adjusted quickly to lower sales by cutting back on orders, keeping the growth in unsold goods to a minimum. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.40, matching a 14-month high.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:12:54 AM
Yields all red now, FVX -2.3, TNX -.8 bps and TYX -1.5 bps. News that FNM's duration gap widened from -2 months to -5 months for May. I don't understand this sufficiently to explain how it works, but traders are saying that FNM will have to hedge with ten year treasury notes, which could explain this week's breakout in the tens. They're also saying it's very bad news for FNM, but again, this is beyond my current understanding.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:12:34 AM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 76.22 -0.10% ... still looks to try and fill Tuesday morning's gap lower back to 76.56. Has been sideways this morning.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:10:31 AM
Nice trade, Alan.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:10:03 AM
QQQ bounced of the 50% retracement level at 30.30.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  10:08:55 AM
Although the volatility indices are up, gold is down, the dollar is up, crude oil is down, and earliest volume patterns (although not completely trustworthy) are still positive. That sure looks like a double top setting up on the OEX, but so far, I'm not getting enough confirmation from the other intermarket relationships to feel confident of that potential being realized.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:06:55 AM
Oxford Health (OHP) $41.66 +2.68% ... bucking this morning's sudden weakness in the major indexes.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:05:20 AM
You said it, Jane. The only difference between winners and losers is the size of their losses.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:04:22 AM
Sell Program Premium Alert SPX = 994.37

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:02:25 AM
GE is back below 31, and my left eye has stopped twitching.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  10:01:15 AM
A teeny little 6.5B overnight repo against 13.5B expiring today (ignoring the washed 6B 28 day repo), for a net drain so far of 7B.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  10:01:04 AM
Sell program really seemed to be felt by the Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 375.75 -1.32% and Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 472.71 -1.85%

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  9:58:38 AM
QQQ $30.51 -0.03% ... Going to suggest closing out yesterday's QQQ bullish from $30.12 here on break below DAILY 38.2% retracement

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:56:39 AM
Thanks, Alan. I'll quote August gold.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  9:56:18 AM
The earliest volume patterns were positive, but it's far too early to give much credence to those first patterns.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  9:54:38 AM
The OEX tested that 503.20 50% retracement of the first five-minute candle and may be failing that test. (There's been no five-minute close below it yet.) If so, that predicts a test of the morning low, but those downside targets have not been met lately. The five-minute pattern appeared to be a bull-flag pattern, with prices zooming up and then falling in a tight pattern of lower highs and lower lows, but if it had been a bull flag, it should have broken to the upside before it retraced more than 50% of that preceding move.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:53:30 AM
The data today was not that good so far. How can these people can get on TV and say that the data was okay or what the market was expecting? It shows a flat economy and with Jobless claims still going up and continuing claims going up to me means that this economy is in for a long rough spell. You can quote me on this if you like. "There is no second half recovery". I listened to some guys yesterday saying 4 to 6% growth in the 3 and 4 quarters and I was wondering what they were smoking because I want some. If there is stimulus still needed to get the economy moving then maybe 2004 will see the economy improve. Just my opinion and I know I am still a bear.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:51:59 AM
HUI and XAU are getting sold, -1.19 and -.37 respectively. July gold isn't budging so far, 348.20, between our support and resistance lines.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:49:50 AM
This one's for Alan H:


we don't have alan h's email. Can you ask him why he is still using the jun contracts, and when he might switch? THANKS PO

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:48:46 AM
Alan K., do you have the IB symbol for the Sept Dollar future? I've never managed to find it.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  9:47:44 AM
Regarding the SOX weakness, TSM and STM are being added to the SOX and LSCC is coming out. That may be contributing to the weakness as two foreign chip-related companies are added to the index.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:47:25 AM
I will be bailing on my GE puts today if the stock is not back below 31, assuming that I don't get stopped out first. Because the contracts I bought are not front-month and are a buck out of the money, and because I got filled at my price, my position is holding up well so far. But I've learned my lesson, and I won't take home a position that causes me to sweat.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:45:12 AM
July gold is down 7.60 to 348.20, last trade on the bid.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  9:43:52 AM
The OEX rapidly approaches the previously violated ascending channel on its hourly chart, having climbed right out of the new one it had established. The outcome of that test is yet in question, and it's too early to trust volume patterns to give us much direction. Note: It took me a few minutes to upload the chart, and the OEX has retreated slightly while the chart was loading. Link

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  9:43:39 AM
Sell Program Premiums Alert SPX 1,000,

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  9:42:41 AM
SPX 1,002 +0.5% .... session high. Might have traders not willing to sell and seeing if they can't get SPX up into 1,008 at 10:00 AM EST mark, when business inventories are released.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  9:40:23 AM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,001.31 +0.38% .... right at our DAILY 19.1% retracement and upper-end of our regression channel. From last night's Index Trader Wrap, this is "first" area we wanted to be on the alert for resistance in early going.

Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 377.32 -0.91% a bit weak here and current sector lower.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:39:11 AM
TRINQ .79, TICK.NQ +322 and QQV +.56. Solid buying, but solid selling keeping prices in check. It's going to depend on who blinks first, but so far no direction.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:36:56 AM
Thanks, Marie:

Like you I have not believed in this rally, but in order to play, I buy long OEX call contracts while holding some short positions in stocks. That income has brought my account to the highest level it has ever been. I made $450,000.00 with the dotbombs, but got out early thanks to common sense. When buying OEX calls doesn't work anymore, I'll go short. Thanks for putting some sanity in my thinking. You are wonderful. I read every word you write.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  9:36:46 AM
The OEX (and other indices) produced one of those larger-than-normal first five-minute candles this morning. That's good, because now the 50% retracement will give us a good benchmark against which to measure early trading. That 50% retracement comes at 503.20. Bulls want to see the OEX stay above that level this morning.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  9:32:41 AM
Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 207.02 +0.12% ... breaking to new highs here.

Kerr McGee (NYSE:KMG) $48.32 +0.10% was a stock mentioned in yesterday's market monitor as a stock with exposure to natural gas exploration/production.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:31:09 AM
6B in 28 day repos announced, which is a wash against the expiring 6B 28 day repo for today.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:22:33 AM
The symbol for September 2003 futures is U3. So, the September ES contract would be ESU3 or ES3U on quote.com.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:18:42 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:18:25 AM
The US Dollar Index spiked on the 8:30 data but has pulled back to just below the 93.10 level.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  9:11:05 AM
Although slightly down since my earlier report this morning, European markets held relatively steady after the release of the U.S.'s economic numbers. In fact, the FTSE 100 has oscillated in a tight range around 3180 for several hours. Currently, the FTSE 100 trades up 28.90 points or 0.70%, at 4179; the CAC 40 trades up 39.24 points or 1.26%, at 3161.14; and the DAX trades up 62.32 points or 1.96%, at 3240.47.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:05:24 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  9:04:50 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  8:55:34 AM
No pullback in equities whatsoever, but no followthrough either. NQ 1236.50, ES 1003.25, QQQ 30.73. FVX +1.3 bps, TNX +1.1 and TYX +.2 bps. June gold is 350 x 352, last 355.40.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  8:44:21 AM
Non-petroleum import prices fell 0.2 percent. Non-fuel import prices fell 0.3 percent, the largest decline since the statistical series was launched in December 2001.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  8:34:03 AM
The number of Americans who remain on benefits rose 120,000 to 3.80 million, the highest level since April 1983.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  8:32:43 AM
US retail sales up 0.1%. U.S. import prices -0.3%, exports +0.1%

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  8:31:44 AM

For the week ended June 7, initial claims dropped 17,000 to 430,000.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  8:26:12 AM
While we wait for the 8:30 data: A big hello to reader Gruff with whom I corresponded last night.

Did anyone have any comments about the very brief macro discussion in last night's Market Wrap? I had bad dreams last night about another rate cut, another wave of refinancings, and another tidal wave of liquidity to jam equities into the stratosphere. Having fought this rally tooth and nail, I have learned that sound reasoning is not sound trading. Thankfully, sound trading saved me. But if there is a new wave to this rally getting started, to be christened at the fed's next meeting, I will be looking for a bull market to trade in which I can believe, because it's difficult to type while holding my nose. I made great money trading the dotbomb bubble, because I actually believe in that rally- blame it on youth, hope and naivete. I believe in commodities, and if treasuries, equities, and commodities are going to get transported together, I'll look to trade commods from the long side. A chart's a chart, but I prefer to be long of positions whose fundamentals are appreciating in value.

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  8:15:43 AM
We have a pre-economic data rally underway in the futures, with ES +6 at 1003.25, NQ +8.50 at 1237.50, and YM +52 at 9229. QQQ is trading 30.75 on Island ECN. The US Dollar has flatlined at 92.98.

  Linda Piazza   6/12/200,  7:17:44 AM
Good morning. Volatility ruled the Nikkei's trading, just as it Wednesday afternoon. Although headlines trumpeted today's 28.30 gain, that gain very nearly did not happen. The Nikkei opened up and raced for the 9000 level, a level it achieved briefly on Wednesday, but then zoomed back down before recovering. The afternoon saw another decline, this time stopping only three points short of turning negative before a slight recovery into the close. As happened yesterday, the Nikkei closed significantly below its high of the day, 84 points below that high today. It closed up 28.30 points or 0.32%, at 8918.60. On the Futures Monitor, Alan has been saying that "it's all about 9000," referring to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and it appears that that statement could be applied to the Nikkei, too.

Remember Monday, when prognosticators spoke gloom and doom about global economies? Optimism rebounded rather quickly or at least a different group of analysts was being quoted in reference to the Asian economies, and those economies almost all gained. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.77%, Singapore's Strait Times was up 2.11%, South Korea's Kospi was up 1.02% despite a rise in the country's jobless rate, and Taiwan's Weighted was up 1.54%.

That optimism didn't infect ECB President Wim Duisenberg, however. This morning, CNBC Europe discusses the increasing adamancy in his speeches. He's speaking today, making the points that monetary policy must guard against deflation, the expected rebound after the Iraq war has not occurred, and economic growth may continue to be weak. Duisenberg believes Eurozone growth estimates for this year and the next year need to be reduced. As gloomy as those prognostications might be, Duisenberg's speech led many to hope for further reduction in rates by the ECB, with European markets gaining accordingly.

Although the gains in the European markets were considered broad based, some attention focused on the gains in the banking sector, especially in Germany. Some banks gained on speculations of possible deals and combinations within German or foreign banks. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was up 30.20 points or 0.73%, to 4180.30; the CAC 40 was up 44.69 points or 1.43%, to 3166.59; and the DAX was up 70.48 points or 2.22%, to 3248.63.

President Bush may have his work cut out for him today as he defends his supposed strong-dollar policy. U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow spoke again last night. Apparently, he still isn't concerned about the dollar's decline. Perhaps Jonathan or Alan K. might have more to say about monetary policy today.

  Jeff Bailey   6/12/200,  2:31:23 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   6/12/200,  2:31:14 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

  Kent Barton   6/12/200,  2:31:03 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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