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  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  4:19:28 PM
QQQ $29.51 -0.53% ... Profiling and after-hours short here at $29.51 , stop $30.25, target $28.95 to begin.

Trade lower in futures gives potential for gap down in morning, so I want to protect OEX bullish position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:59:05 PM
es03u 974.50 -0.71% ... right at that 974 level discussed in last night's Index Trader wrap. Session low for e-mini S&P has been 972.75.

I'm going to tie this observation in with OEX session low of 491.84 so far.

Might have OEX bullish stop of 491 just about right.

If a bull was still willing to risk a stop to 491.00 earlier today at 500.00, then I would think we should hold overnight if OEX does NOT trade the 491.00 mark.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:36:00 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 439.98 -2.2% ... downside alert here per Index Trader Wraps at 19.1% retracement. BEARISH for sector.

CTX $78.92 -3.18% ... RYL $69.62 -2.54%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  3:33:31 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:24:09 PM
If you're not watching both the futures and the options monitors, Jane asked if others preferred trading a down market to an up market. I think after all these years I'm just more used to trading a down market. I see a breakout to new highs and I think "short it" rather than "buy it," but I'm trying to train myself to see both possibilities. Actually, I liked the go-go days of late 1999 and 2000! What fun.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  3:19:13 PM
Although the OEX moved above the 50% retracement of that larger-than-normal five-minute candle that formed shortly after the FOMC decision was announced, the intersecting five-minute 21 and 100-pma's stopped it. It's now plummeted below the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart, somewhere near 493.50. It's also headed for the confirmation level of one possible neckline on its H&S formation, with that neckline now at about 492.50. This could be a possible bounce point, but sentiment sure looks ugly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  3:17:10 PM
Looks like I might have unloaded those GE puts a tad early this afternoon :)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:51:37 PM
Centex (CTX) $80.54 -1.25% .... session lows here. Slips back under a rising 21-day SMA of $80.90.

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) higher by 7.9 basis at 4.423%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:47:07 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 305.05 +0.83% .... FOMC low has been 304.01. Holds up for OEX bull at this point. BIX.X weekly S1 at 303.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  2:46:13 PM
Put to call ratio .68, equity pcr .53 and index pcr 1.32.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:39:01 PM
OEX 496.93 +0.1% ... session low after FOMC came at 495.08. This is right in our "zone of support" from 495.11 (WEEKLY 80.9% retracement) and WEEKLY S1 of 495.92.

Bulls from 497 still ok here. Could raise stop from 491 to just under low at 494, but worth the wait at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:34:45 PM
We obviously have a larger-than-normal candle on the five-minute chart. Let's look at the midpoint of that candle. That's at 497.16. Theory says that the midpoint should now serve as resistance. Bears want to see that resistance hold. Bulls want to get the OEX back above that resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:32:54 PM
Oh My! August Fed Funds Futures (ff03q) 99.05 -0.1% unravels (somewhat expected on June today's 25 basis point cut) but now shows just 20% chance of 25 basis by August meeting.

Early sign, or market participant thought that Fed isn't gong to be too aggressive in future.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  2:31:17 PM
Jeff, some writers are referring to the treasury market as "bond.com". FVX is up 5.7 bps, off its best levels. For all this, QQQ is back below 30 but still plenty of buyers to soften the landing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:30:04 PM
Here's where we are with respect to the possible H&S top on the OEX 60-minute chart. If this neckline is correct, confirmation would come on a move below 492.50, if that move happens quickly, but it's also possible to draw a horizontal neckline at 495, and have it look valid, too. In any case, the bottom of the OEX's ascending channel on the daily chart crosses just below the current level, too, and the 21-dma is at 495.86, so a continued plunge through the neckline isn't guaranteed. Let's see where the bounce takes us. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:29:56 PM
YIELD curve really flattens here with 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) up 7.1 basis point now (very volatile!) at 2.231%, while longer-dated 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) higher by 4.7 basis at 4.39%

May help keep a bid in equities. Fast trade in Treasuries for sure!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:27:28 PM
Sector Weakness Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 447.71 -0.51% .... Dow Jones Transports (TRAN) 2,370.90 -0.8%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:25:33 PM
Multiple Sell Program ... have indexes at lows of session. SPX 981.61 -0.18% , OEX 495.15

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:23:53 PM
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) $34.09 -0.26% ... quick reversal of earlier gains.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  2:23:35 PM
TRIN.NQ is up to .64, TICK.NQ -474, very bearish move, QQV +.05m VIX +.83 now. Huge surge in yield, another kudo to Jeff for that beautiful yield call suggestion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:22:59 PM
Spoke too soon, didn't I? I didn't enter an OEX call position for just that reason: the volatility around the release of the number. Sometimes the first reaction isn't the last one, as Jim mentioned earlier.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:20:29 PM
Maybe we'll get that OEX pop up to 502-505 after all, and get to see what happens then.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  2:20:00 PM
Second that, Jane.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:18:35 PM
Buy Program Premium alert SPX = 989, OEX = 499, INDU = 9,128, NDX = 1,209, QQQ= $30.07

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:17:42 PM
5-YEAR YIELD ($FVX.X) surges 12 basis points to 2.277%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:17:00 PM
Sell Program Premium Alert ... SPX= 987.43, OEX= 497.88, INDU= 9,102, NDX= 1,205, QQQ= $29.93

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:15:49 PM
Fed cuts rates 25 basis points Fed Funds rate now 1.00%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:13:55 PM
02:00 Internals ... benchmark ahead of FOMC

NYSE 5,583 +0.57% ... A/D 22:9 NH/NL 75:9

NASDAQ 1,625 +1.25% ... A/D 20:10 NH/NL 92:6

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:08:37 PM
VIX.X vs. VXN.X earlier observations of DIVERGENCE in direction between the two, has suddenly changed. Even since the 01:00 PM EST update.

VIX.X 23.50 +3.25%, while VXN.X 31.67 -2.34% .... has been more "volatile" in last 15-minutes.

Analysis here is that things aren't quite as bullish or "neutral" as earlier today, and slight shift toward bearish among options traders.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:04:43 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,103 -0.06% ... slips into red here. DIS -2.2%, MO -1.99%, EK -1.51%.

Both MO and EK are higher dividend YIELD stocks. May be a tip that Fed is either not going to cut or cuts 25 basis point?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  2:01:48 PM
01:00 Internals ...

NYSE 5,582 +0.55% ... Vol. 636m A/D 21:10 NH/NL 67:8 (NH/NL daily ratio 89.3)

NASDAQ 1,623 +1.09% ... Vol. 721m A/D 18:11 NH/NL 82:4 (NH/NL daily ratio 95.3)

Yesterday's end of day NH/NL daily ration for NYSE was 89.1%

Yesterday's end of day NH/NL daily ratio for NASDAQ was 89.5%

"rebound" for NASDAQ today, while NYSE steady. 10-day averages have been slipping.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  2:00:59 PM
Here's how the OEX is trading today in relationship to the ascending channel seen on the daily chart. Here are some indicators, moving averages, support levels, and resistance levels I'm monitoring. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  1:50:37 PM
Current levels: FVX +.6 bp, TNX +1.5 and TYX +4 bps. TRIN.NQ .30, TICK.NQ +69, QQV flat, VXN -1.01, VIX +.77.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  1:47:50 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  1:42:03 PM
This five-minute OEX trendline that I began yesterday seems to be coming into play today, at least now, ahead of the FOMC decision. I don't expect a respect of trendlines necessarily when after-the-decision volatility hits: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  1:33:07 PM
Possible dialogue inside the lead and kryptonite ensconced bowels of the Marriner S. Eccles building:

Al Green: "Whaddya think, Ben? Should I cut a big one?"

Bernanke: "You ole coot! They're expecting 25 bips. I say, lettem have 75."

Al Green, crumpling up a sheet of paper and aiming for the trashcan: "If I get a swish, not touching the rim, we'll go to 50..."

Apologies.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  1:07:28 PM
The put to call ratio is .68 for this past half hour. Bonds are still selling, FVX +1.3 bps, TNX +1.9 and TYX +3.7 bps. TRIN.NQ .37, TICK.NQ +303, QQV -.61. The world has focused on the impending arrival of Al Green, currently polishing his briefcase, swiping down his goggles, slicking his coiffe to immaculate perfection. Ben Bernanke's got the sleeves rolled up, giving the batmobile one last "fwap" with the buffing rag.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  1:01:16 PM
Easy you guys- Jim might send us all to our rooms :-O

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  1:00:49 PM
Wish we could see Jeff's face right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  1:00:18 PM
hee, hee, heee.... if the OEX trades 507, then maybe not. (GRIN)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:58:58 PM
No problem, Jeff. I just didn't know if Jane wanted to be credited with a take on the markets that might not be her view.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  12:58:01 PM
I can vouch for that, Linda. Jeff mis-spelled my name earlier :)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:57:01 PM
Shoot! Gosh darn it Linda! I meant to type Linda. I'm not good with names today! I had you in my mind, but Jane on the fingertips.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:54:16 PM
Lunch-time crowd should be coming back and time to roll up the shirt/blouse sleeves. If there's going to be any end to today's rather lackluster trade, it should start near-term.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:51:21 PM
Jeff, that was me making the observations about OEX H&S top, but I actually started making those observations on Monday morning in the Monitor when I didn't want to buy puts on the decline due to the possibility that the OEX would bounce back up toward a right-shoulder level. Now I'm watching to see what happens as the right-shoulder level is approached, doing so without much bias one direction or another. I want to be aware that the OEX could turn over at that area while trying to make it clear to readers that's just one possible scenario. Thanks for pointing out that might be from a "bears perspective," as that gives me a chance to clarify that it's not. I'm in a watching mode, positing various theories. Until yesterday when I sold into strength, I actually had more bullish than bearish plays. I've got only one position heading into the FOMC meeting and it's a bullish one.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:44:57 PM
OEX 60-minute chart .... Linda makes some good comments regarding potential head/shoulder top. Her observations may be that of bears at this point. Here's a bullish take that may come into play for those holding bullish from 477 yesterday. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  12:35:31 PM
The US Dollar Index has blown through 93.90 support, and gold is testing 350 currently. XAU is up 1.47, HUI is up 2.74.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:32:06 PM
Jane, Jim, and others are pointing out the lack of movement in the indices and have also predicted that it would occur heading into the FOMC decision. I'd plugged that likely lack of movement into my potential "right shoulder" thesis, but I thought the OEX might have moved up higher before this stasis began. While some 30-minute oscillators have begun rolling, only the RSI on the 60-minute chart shows any signs of turning down and even the RSI keeps redrawing itself as I watch. I'm still just watching the potential for that formation, as it's also possible that we'll get a higher high on the OEX instead of a rounding over into a right shoulder.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:30:40 PM
VIX.X and VXN.X comparison.... VIX.X 23.35 +2.59%, while VXN.X 31.59 -2.59%. Looks like options market makers playing one against the other and somewhat neutral on % change basis? Been tracking justthe inverse all morning.

Interpretation may be that there's a "beta trade" underway, where bulls are making bets on upside type of reaction to FOMC, where the volatility has stocks higher? Not sure, but notable divergence between the VIX.X and VXN.X

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  12:25:31 PM
QQQ $30.03 +1.17% .... as it relates to our "finite level" and unconventional changing of box sizes in the indexes, the QQQ was perhaps the closest to generating a "sell signal" yesterday at $29.40. Today's trade builds a little breathing room as it relates to our $0.35 box size. Link

OEX 499.23 +0.55% ... maybe a little "stronger" or not as much supply with its 3-point box. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  12:11:25 PM
The put to call ratio is .70 for this past half hour, index pcr 1.42 and equity pcr .53.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  12:04:30 PM
So far, OEX 499 is holding. As I study the hourly chart, I'm wondering about revising the right shoulder height for the potential H&S. Remember that this potential H&S formation is a potential one only, and this is just one possible scenario of many. As Jeff mentioned earlier, there could be a positive reaction to the FOMC meeting that pop the OEX above the possible right-shoulder level. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  12:02:52 PM
Excellent cartoon: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  11:55:28 AM
GE is printing a low of the day, down .37%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  11:44:15 AM
The put to call ratio has eased down to .68, index pcr 1.46 and equity pcr .51. The TRIN.NQ at .35 is confirming a possible reversal under way, coinciding with the sell signal on the 5 hour stochastic on the S&P futures just mentioned in the futures monitor. TICK.NQ -199, QQV -.02.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:40:06 AM
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) $34.85 +2% ..... stock's high so far is $35.00. I'm noting 1,005 volume in the August 35 calls (XIQHG) today, and I think this is covered call writer of bull. Open interest is 2,920 on the August 35 contract, so roughly 1/3 of open interest in today's volume on this contract.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:39:45 AM
The OEX support near 499.60 appears to be somewhat tentative. I'm not sure it's going to hold. As I mentioned earlier, look to 499 next if this level fails to hold. For disclosure's sake, I'm not in any OEX play currently, ahead of the FOMC meeting.

 
 
  Andy Aronson   6/25/200,  11:28:41 AM
Dividend stock buyers should take a look at BPT. This is a Royalty Trust that is based in Prudhoe Bay Alaska. The current yield is around 13%. Take a look at the chart and see what the kind of Volatility is associated with this stock. As always, do your research before purchasing any investment vehicle. Aaronson@OptionInvestor.com

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:26:50 AM
The OEX five-minute chart showed a formation that appeared to be a bull flag, but that formation has instead broken to the downside. Look for first support near 499.60, then 499.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  11:23:43 AM
Put to call ratio is up to .71, a neutral reading but still climbing from its lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  11:22:02 AM
Yields have risen significantly off their lows, FVX up .9 bps, TNX +2.2 and TYX +3.7. The TRIN.NQ is still down at .27, which could be hinting at significant buying to come- a normally extreme low reading on this short term indicator can be signalling a large wave of buying. TICK.NQ is +129, QQV -.11. It's looking quite bullish for the COMPX on these readings.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  11:09:29 AM
Volume patterns still look positive. With those positive volume patterns, and first support holding on the OEX pullback, I'm still working on the 502-505 scenario.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  10:56:31 AM
Yields have gone green across the curve.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:51:48 AM
On that last pullback, the OEX found support at yesterday's high. I'm still watching for a move up to 502-505, watching to see what happens then. If that right shoulder were to be built, one scenario would be a rather quick move up to that right-shoulder zone this morning, then a leveling off for a few hours ahead of the FOMC decision. This is just "what if" thinking, though, and I don't own a crystal ball, so it's not a prediction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:49:35 AM
5-year YIELD (FVX.X) 2.156% (unch).... July 20 call bid 2.40 here. $2.40x$2.85

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  10:45:00 AM
Put to call ratio rises to .66, equity pcr up to .58 and index pcr 1.05.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:44:28 AM
Volume patterns show adv/dec ratios of 2.2 on the NYSE and 1.6 on the Nasdaq. Up volume is 3.6 times down volume on the NYSE and 5.7 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Volume is light, at 247 million on the NYSE and 327 million on the Nasdaq, but so far the volume patterns say there's more buying than selling.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:41:18 AM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) 2.145% .... I see potential reverse head/shoulder pattern in 60-minute chart, with neckline at 2.323%. Aggressive bond bear might come in here with a July 20 YIELD call (FVXGD) ($2.00 x $2.80). If Fed were to "cut 50" could see this bond sell off on thought.... "that's it."

Yesterday afternoon, PIMCO's Bill Gross was on CNBC and talked about bond market. He didn't go into great detail, but he said as total of bond market, should Fed cut all the way to 0.0% Fed Funds, and still come into longer-dated bonds and buy to keep YIELDS low, his analysis is that..... If you were to put a price on the bond market, it is equivalent of buying Dow Industrials 9,600 with a MAXIMUM upside in the Dow at 10,000. In essence, Mr. Gross was saying there is a finite level of gain for the bond market (puts it in terms that stock traders/investor can understand with limiting the Dow to 10,000) as sayinig the bond market is at Dow equivalent of 9,600. He said... at this level (talking about the bond market) he has no interest as upside is very limited.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  10:34:57 AM
Treasury yields continue to rise, with FVX down 1.7 bps now, TNX -2 and TYX -.8 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:34:37 AM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 23.27 +2.24% .... above its 50-day SMA for the first time since falling below on March 25th. This is near-term bullish to me as it looks like lots of put buyers starting to show up. Never sure, but if they are short-term speculator type traders ahead of the Fed, then this may give some volatility to the markets just after FOMC interest rate news. If lots of put buyers and we see quick knee-jerk reaction to upside, could make for a spike higher in the indexes if put speculators turn to close out. This could create the "pop" OEX bulls look for as discussed in last night's index trader wrap. Again.... never know for sure, but we have a plan.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:30:30 AM
All this week, the OEX has been finding support at its 21-dma, currently at 496. The OEX has not closed beneath that average since May 21, the last day of a three-day violation of the average. A violation of that average on a closing basis might then be significant, although some technicians want to see several days' closings or a percentage move below an average before that move is considered significant. In May when the OEX violated that average on a closing basis, it then moved down toward the lower Bollinger band, not quite touching it before bouncing again. The last time, however, the 200-ema was just inside the lower Bollinger band, providing support. It's not there this time. The lower Bollinger band on the daily chart is now at 478.84, but is rising rapidly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:27:51 AM
Stock Trader's Almanac notes Swing Traders may want to keep in mind some Stock Trader's Almanac historical notes.

Last day of second quarter (Monday, June 30) tends to be bearish day with Dow Industrials down 8 of last 11. June also ends NASDAQ's "Best eight Months"

Then... July (Tuesday, July 1) Begins NASDAQ's worst 4 months of the year. July's first trading day has Dow Industrials up 12 of last 13.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  10:26:05 AM
Yields have risen off their lows, FVX -2.2 bps, TNX -2.8 and TYX -1.3. TRIN.NQ at .27 is in hysteria-buy territory, bearish to me unless it persists for longer than a few minutes, in which case it's indicating something much bigger, TICK.NQ -252.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:21:51 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 500.05 +0.71% .... "psychological" level here. Just shy of our first "zone of resistance" from WEEKLY/MONTHLY retracements of 500.79-502.10. So far so good. Fed "dead ahead" at 02:15 PM EST.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:14:37 AM
New Home Sales for May came in at 1,157k annual rate, which was above consensus of 1,040k. (sales up 12.5%)

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 451.46 +0.31%

PHLX Housing Index ($HGX.X) 289.08 +0.6%.

CTX $81.32 -0.23%, RYL $71.40 -0.05%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  10:07:30 AM
Put to call ratio .59, with the equity pcr .48 and index pcr 1.02. Back to bearish readings.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  10:04:35 AM
It looks as if we may get a chance to see whether a right shoulder will form on the potential H&S formation I've been mentioning on the OEX's hourly chart. Although the right shoulder hadn't begun to form Monday morning and the OEX was headed down, the potential for a bounce near 495 and the formation of a right shoulder kept me from suggesting short positions. Whenever I see that left-shoulder-and-head shape on a chart, I'm always alerted to that possibility. Although the potential exists for a right shoulder to form, traders shouldn't count on it and go short at 502-505 without evidence of a rollover. Bullish traders can, however, be alert to the possibility of a rollover in that zone and be watchful. Knowing the potential can help manage risk. We've all seen potential H&S tops that didn't turn out to be tops lately, however, so don't draw too many conclusions just yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:00:54 AM
Per Jonathan's 09:56:02 Actually, July Fed Funds Futures (ff03n) are little changed and still forecast roughly 53% chance of 50 basis point cut from Mr. Greenspan.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  9:58:57 AM
GS announced better than expected results and hiked their dividend to 25 cents. Pump and dump, anyone :)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  9:56:02 AM
I'm guessing, Jim, that the bad durable goods data reignited hopes for 50 bips from the Maestro.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  9:53:47 AM
Al Green announces no open market ops today. Looks like he's saving it up for the heavier artillery this afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:52:42 AM
SanDisk (SNDK) $40.30 +1.66% .... stock closed at new closing 52-week high yesterday after trading new 52-week high intra-day. The "ascending triple-top" at $40.00 is not to be confused with the triple-top buy signal from Professor Davis study. Bulls are currently using the bullish vertical count (column of X from $17 to $38) of 81.50 to measure risk/reward (risk to sell signal is $35, or $5). Link

(Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in SNDK)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  9:46:11 AM
From Vick:

Good morning, Great JOB ALWAYS!!! My take on market reaction on FED...

No cut in rates: if the FOMC does not cut rates the initial reaction will likely be a gap lower and a sell off that lasts about 15 minutes followed by an aggressive and unyielding rally that will likely last through the end of the month. This will be based on an assumption by Wall Street that the economy is in good shape according to the FOMC.

Rates are cut by 25 basis points: This would be taken in stride by the Market and buyers will likely return to the Market in the last hour of trading.

Rates are cut by 50 basis points: The Market is likely to surge on this news and the scramble to buy before the end of the month by institutions is likely to propel the Market aggressively

Once this issue is put behind the Market, institutions will be stepping into the Market again to 'dress up' their portfolios before the end of the month. This means we see very little reason for Market declines after the FOMC decision

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:44:46 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 449.50 -0.12% .... CTX $80.81 -0.87% Link , RYL $71.20 -0.33% Link .

(Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in RYL)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:42:39 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 986.45 +0.3% .... session high, but just under its 21-hour SMA (60-minute chart) of 986.91 here. (see last night's Index Trader Wrap) Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:39:12 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 303.52 +0.33% ... edging above yesterday's highs.Link

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 497.55 +0.21% ... steady at the open. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:37:37 AM
The first five-minute OEX range was big enough to give us some benchmarks. The midpoint of the range was 497.04. Handily enough, that's right at a S/R level that's come into play the last few days. Bulls want to see that level maintained in early trading. Bears want to drive the OEX below that level. As Jane mentioned, though, have a plan in place to handle expected volatility today when technical indications might not be as reliable an indicator of market direction as they sometimes are. One possible plan is to stay in cash until after the FOMC meeting and the initial volatility that is likely to arise immediately after the announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:33:13 AM
I've been thinking about the impact of SARS on Asian economies and on ours. Although everyone now acts as if the SARS epidemic has ended, I remember that when it first arose, health officials forecast that the number of cases would wane during the summer months and then increase again in the fall and winter months, just as influenza does. Perhaps economists and investors expect health officials to have discovered a cure by next winter, but isn't that too hopeful? Won't the SARS effect trouble companies again in a few months?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:33:11 AM
NYSE Ten Week Bullish % (TWNYSE) from Dorsey/Wright and Assoc. reversed into "bear confirmed" status on Monday as it slipped to 79.02% and gave a "sell signal" on this bullish % chart (2% box size). This is simply a tabulation of NYSE listed stocks where the percentage of stocks above or below their 50-day SMA are monitored. This is considered an "intermediate-term" type of indicator (50-day SMA is intermediate-term) and quicker moving type of bullish %. Current condition of this bullish % advises caution to bullish traders as we're starting to see a growing number of stocks begin to slip below their 50-day SMA's.

Here is a bar chart of the NYSE Composite. 1, 2, 3-lettered stocks below their 50-day SMA would be considered "weaker" stocks. Link

Yesterday, I mentioned shares of Nortel (NYSE:NT) $2.87 +1.4% as a potential day trader's short for today on a break below $2.78. Link , as the stock looked "technically expensive" compared to Lucent (NYSE:LU) $1.88 +1.62% Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  9:32:07 AM
TRIN.NQ .48, TICK.NQ -154, QQV +.93. FVX -5.7 bps. Futures are positive.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  9:28:06 AM
Currently, the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX trade at or near their day's lows. The FTSE 100 currently trades down 10.30 points or 0.25%, at 4050.60; the CAC 40 trades down 16.65 points or 0.54%, at 3086.69; and the DAX trades down 33.76 points or 1.05%, at 3183.58.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  9:12:24 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:57:40 AM
The US Dollar Index is right back to 93.90 support, but gold has failed to recover, last at 348 on the August contract.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:40:18 AM
Expectations had been for a 1% gain, but the Teflon Market is shrugging it off, no doubt on expectations of a gift from Al Green.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:37:20 AM
U.S. May durable orders fall 0.3%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:35:39 AM
Treasuries have opened higher, with yields dropping below support profiled yesterday, FVX -5.1 bps, TNX -4.4 and TYX -3.4 bps. Futures are higher, ES +1 and NQ +2, with QQQ trading 29.70. August gold is up 2.40 to 349.10.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  8:02:40 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (FRE), the No. 2 U.S. mortgage finance company, on Wednesday said it expects to restate earnings for 2000, 2001 and 2002 upward by between $1.5 billion and $4.5 billion."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/25/200,  7:26:33 AM
It appears that I dreamt this before it occurred! Link

Edit: Or at least before I found it- publication date was June 23, 2003. Kudos to Ron Paul for telling it like it is.

I recently had an opportunity to hear testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan at a hearing of the Joint Economic committee. I always relish the opportunity to question Mr. Greenspan at such hearings, because I disagree so strongly with Fed policies. Mr. Greenspan is a remarkable man, with a background as a devotee of novelist Ayn Rand, a supporter of the gold standard, and a fervent advocate of capitalism. So I’m at a loss to explain his metamorphosis into a believer in fiat currency and centralized economic planning. [...]

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/25/200,  7:01:04 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened just below 8900, but headed into the midmorning break 14.32 points into positive territory. After the break, the Nikkei made a run for 9000, reaching as high as 8977.69, but fell back to end close to the level it ended the morning session. The Nikkei closed up 13 points or 0.15%, at 8932.26. Japanese investors had a lot to handicap Wednesday, with the FOMC decision due today and the Bank of Japan also holding a one-day policy-setting meeting. Because the Nikkei has made strong gains over the last months, most watchers did not expect any changes in policy as a result of that Bank of Japan meeting, and the monetary policy did remain unchanged. One strange event occurred, however: the rate charged on overnight loans between banks slid into negative numbers. The impossible now seems to have occurred. Lenders will pay interest to borrowers!

Although other Asian news will have to go far to top that news about lending rates in Japan, other news of note includes the halting of China Eastern Airlines pending news and continued labor problems in South Korea. Hyundai Motor Company's union did vote to strike, as expected. South Korea's Kospi still climbed 1.51% today. Taiwan Weighted climbed 0.50%, Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.11%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed flat.

Most European bourses trade either side of the flatline this morning, with volume reportedly thin ahead of the U.S. rate cut decision. Although the Italian consumer confidence number, the first to be released earlier this week, unexpectedly fell, Italian and Germany business confidence numbers showed increases. Germany's number rose to a higher-than-expected 88.8 from May's 87.6. Economists pointed to the ECB's rate cut decision and increased demand from the U.S. as triggering the increase in business confidence in these two countries. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was down 0.10 points to 4060.80; the CAC 40 was up 1.82 points or 0.06%, to 3105.16; and the DAX was down 7.24 points or 0.23%, to 3210.10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/24/200,  12:17:42 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/24/200,  12:17:35 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/24/200,  12:16:56 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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