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  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  3:50:36 PM
Here's the OEX five-minute chart I posted earlier, showing the descending line off the June 17 highs and the ascending channel. Although the OEX originally popped above the descending line and climbed the underside of the top line of the channel, it then fell beneath both. Now it challenges that descending line again. Link Over the last couple of hours, 30-minute candle shadows point way north and way south, but the candle bodies have stayed about the same place.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  3:28:16 PM
Put to call ratio .80, equity pcr .72, index pcr 1.24.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  3:27:55 PM
Studying the OEX 30-minute chart, I note first that the selling pressure, as depicted by -DI, has been decreasing all day today, as has the ADX number. I also notice that this morning marked bullish divergence between price and oscillators, as price made a new low this morning, while 30-minute oscillators such as MACD, RSI, and stochastics made higher lows before turning up again. But has the bullishness been expended? While it's impossible to tell, RSI has flattened. The shorter-term 5(3)3 stochastics have flattened also, from within territory that depicts overbought conditions. MACD and the 21(3)3 stochastics still move up, however, but they're slower to turn.

The 60-minute indicators also show selling pressure decreasing. Stochastics hint at rollovers, but haven't yet made bearish kisses much less actually rolled. RSI has a slight downward hinge, but in these 60-minute indicators that can't be turned back up with even a modest rise this afternoon. Daily charts show ADX decreasing rapidly, depicting a lessening in strength in the former rally. 5(3)3 stochastics hint at an upturn, while the longer-term 21(3)3's and MACD both still look bearish. One possible resolution to all of this is for the OEX to rise modestly this afternoon or consolidate while the 60-minute oscillators join the 30-minutes in overbought territory and the short-term daily 5(3)3 stochastics reset themselves to overbought, too. The height to which the OEX ascends--or doesn't ascend--while all that happens would again give us clues about the strength of the market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  3:01:04 PM
Volume patterns have remained relatively steady since mid-morning. Adv/dec ratios are 21:12 for the NYSE and 19:11 for the Nasdaq. The up/down volume ratios are smaller than they were earlier, but still bullish in character. Up volume is 2.9 times down volume on the NYSE and 3 times down volume on the Nasdaq. As of a few moments ago, total volume was 988 million on the NYSE and 1.1 billion on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  2:57:00 PM
Treasuries are headed out near their lows of the day, with FVX up a whopping 16.8 bps, TNX +16.3 and TYX +11.5 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  2:55:47 PM
Atari (ATAR) $4.75 -2.6% .... stock turns lower on news that company has until tomorrow to file with SEC. If it doesn't file within the 90-day period, will have an "E" added to its symbol.Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  2:48:23 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $25.79 +2% .... stock active in last 10-minutes after court ruled MSFT will not have to carry Sun Microsystems' (NASDAQ:SUNW) $4.78 -2.2% Java.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  2:44:45 PM
The OEX has climbed above the descending trendline depicted as possible resistance on the chart linked to my 14:12 post. The OEX still trades within the ascending channel, now climbing the inside of the top line. Next possible resistance comes near 498.20-498.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  2:14:52 PM
Put to call ratio down to .80 for the past half hour. TRIN.NQ .52, TICK.NQ +155, QQV -1.61. Very bullish setup so far, but the short cycle oscillators are trying to roll over.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  2:12:57 PM
A profit is a profit. A profit is a profit. I'm going to keep telling myself that. For those of you who are in bullish plays and who have more courage than I had, the 496 level was finally broken. Now you want that level to be maintained. If the OEX continues rising, watch this possible resistance next. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  1:59:05 PM
Today's 1:45 ET push actually began at 1:42 ET, when the OEX began moving up. It has now dropped below the level at which it was trading then. This was a test of next resistance, and the test appears to be showing us that the OEX will have trouble breaking that resistance. At this moment, I'm not having seller's remorse any longer, but that may change again at any moment.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  1:54:58 PM
Oh, well, a profit is a profit. The OEX has now moved up after I sold my call position. That's what I get for engaging in a trade that isn't my usual style. I don't have the same feel for how things are progressing. As I've mentioned at other times, too, I don't have a gut feel for entries and have to time those according to patterns, formations, trendline violations or other such methods, but I often do have a better instinct for exits. I've regretted not paying attention to that instinct many times in the past, so I usually do exit if I begin to feel too uncomfortable about the way the tape is going. Sometimes then I have seller's regret, but that's better than letting a profit go by and taking a big loss instead. I would feel much more comfortable today in a put position after a rollover than I did buying a call position.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  1:36:56 PM
The minutes from the fed meeting are due at 2PM if I'm not mistaken.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  1:36:47 PM
I don't like the feel of things now. I'm going to exit my call position for a small profit, even though I realize that my stop has not been violated and I might be missing a zoom up toward OEX 498 this afternoon. This is not my usual style of play and I feel uncomfortable with it. I'd rather take my little profit and go.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  1:31:21 PM
The trend is your friend. It's tough when it takes time off, like now. The tape feels like it's fighting in both directions, getting nowhere.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  1:30:38 PM
OEX 495 is being tested again. I will be exiting my call position on a move below 494.73, as it was a high-risk, short-term play only and I do not want to lose money on it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  1:19:14 PM
The OEX makes it back over 495. The next hurdle is some congestion at 495.50 and then the previous day's high at 495.83.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  1:02:55 PM
The OEX broke through the bottom of the potential bull flag pattern and through the 484.80 support. Thirty and sixty-minute oscillators have turned up, but the 30-minute stochastics are trying to hook down. The OEX now rises to test that broken support. If the OEX cannot move back into that flag pattern and above the 495 level again, I will be exiting for a small gain (I hope). I had entered as the OEX broke above 493.56, intending to stay in this very short-term and high-risk play only until 496, just below the target for the OEX double bottom. Perhaps I should have taken the 495.83 top of this movement, but at the time that top was made, the OEX was breaking out of what appeared to be a bull flag. Time will tell.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  12:41:20 PM
I almost didn't post that information about volume patterns, because it seems that as soon as I say something definitive about volume patterns, the markets reverse just to prove me wrong. The OEX had attempted an upside breakout of the possible bull flag pattern, but then fell back inside that pattern and may soon be testing the lower support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  12:39:36 PM
Centex (CTX) $80.32 +2.27% .... here's a PnF chart. Wanted to post in 01:00 intra-day, but we're still having technical problems uploading charts to intraday updates. Similar trade in CTX this morning as seen in OEX. Still like CTX short/put with target at $70.Link

I think today's weekly jobless data was "boost" for equities, as that part of economy is perhaps the most lagging. While YIELD rise from Treasuries will have mortgage rates moving up a bit, some sign of jobs market on weekly basis is positive for homebuilders and why I think they bid against higher YIELDS today.

Still, two consecutive sell signals in CTX is sign that demand is starting to dry up a bit at higher prices.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  12:38:32 PM
Volume patterns continue to improve. Adv/dec ratios are 20:12 on the NYSE and 18:11 on the Nasdaq. Up volume is now 2.5 times down volume on the NYSE and 4 times down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  12:16:44 PM
That's the psychological problem right there, Linda. Getting stopped on a short means becoming a buyer at a higher level- tough to do, just like becoming a seller at a lower level when bullish. This is why automatic stops work so much better. Still hard to watch a stop get run and then the price reverse, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  12:15:37 PM
The OEX has paused just below 496 and now trades in a tight pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Is this a bull flag pattern forming after its climb? We'll soon know.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  12:14:12 PM
Jeff,, I was thinking this morning that you did a spectacular job of picking the place where the OEX decline should stop. You were only something like $0.13 off, and I know from experience how tough it is to be stopped out by such a minimal amount. If we're going to be stopped, we want the market to just keep going so we know we were right, but those stops are necessary, as you mentioned. Although I hadn't entered the trade because my trading plan doesn't include trading ahead of potentially market-moving events, I, too, thought the OEX had a good chance to rise, at least to 502-505.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  12:12:47 PM
Another .86 put to call reading. TRIN.NQ .48, TICK.NQ +33, QQV -.85 to 26.51.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  12:06:39 PM
The OEX hit 495.81 before pulling back to the current level, with 495.81 being close to the 496 target predicted by the confirmed OEX double bottom. Is this it? Once again, it's going to be the retest that gives us the most information. Bulls want to see the retreat stop near 494.80, preferably, and certainly above the 493.56 confirmation level of the double bottom.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  12:05:31 PM
Oxford Health (OHP) $41.85 +2% .... I'm still very bullish on OHP longer-term and still hold November expiration calls. 2-day resistance here, but looking of OHP to work above for retest of recent highs at $44.

Recent 3-box reversal now completes the bullish vertical count column ($28-$44) to $79. Next major resistance level to monitor for break higher is just under $46. Should stock break above $46, should be "off to the races" as overhead supply shold then be limited. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  12:05:04 PM
Yields at their highs of the day. Didn't the fed promise to buy treasuries if a yield rally should occur? So far, it's still just a correction. FVX +12.9 bps, TNX +13.7, TYX +9.7.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  11:58:21 AM
OEX 495.27 +0.74% .... Humph!... one thing that is so hard when profiling stops (491.00) and having to really stick with them is when you see OEX trade 480.85 session low, have your profiled stop triggered and "boopdy doo" back higher.

While very tempting to have "changed" the stop to 489, this is the kind of stuff that got a lot of bulls in trouble the past three years.

I'll feel "bad" if the OEX now trades 507-510 target.

Moving into "zone of resistance" here from 495.11-495.92. Looking at 60-minute chart, which is my "swing-trade" chart, Stochastics turn up from "oversold" and OEX does look to have potential into Friday back to 500.00 at this point.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  11:54:58 AM
Selling picked up in treasuries on this surge in equities, FVX +12.2 bps, TNX +12.4 and TYX +8.7. The short cycle oscillators are predictably getting very toppy here, and a pullback is to be expected, but the depth of that pullback will be key. A shallower pullback will be very bullish if it occurs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  11:48:18 AM
One version of that OEX H&S neckline, as seen on the hourly chart, is a horizontal line at the current 494.80-495 level, so this level is a critical one to watch, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  11:40:42 AM
We've now had a five-minute close over the 493.56 confirmation level for the OEX double bottom. Bulls now want to see that level defended on any pullbacks. Remember that the upside target for this formation is only 496, and one version of a descending trendline lies at 498, another level that might trip up the bulls. Volume patterns continue to improve, although the rise has felt tentative until just now. Disclosure: I have a call position in the OEX, meant to be very short term as I consider it playing against the trend and high risk.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  11:32:53 AM
The OEX is now above the confirmation level of the double-bottom on the five-minute chart, but we haven't yet had a five-minute close over that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  11:20:13 AM
The OEX turned back from that test of the confirmation level for the five-minute double bottom. So far, we've had no convincing show of strength or weakness, but perhaps that will come later. I do note that volume patterns are improving, with adv/dec ratios now at 17:13 for the NYSE and 15:12 for the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  11:12:31 AM
Put to call ratio .82, equity pcr .80 and index pcr .93.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  11:08:40 AM
The OEX 493.56 confirmation level of the five-minute double bottom is about to be tested now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  11:06:55 AM
August gold has held at the 344 support line so far, intraday low of 343.60, last at 344.90. XAU -.56, HUI -1.66.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  11:01:40 AM
Although the violation of the OEX bear flag turned out to be a trap, the bounce I'm seeing is equally unconvincing. There's been no confirmation of that double bottom. I haven't seen anything to cause me to jump into a play either direction just yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  10:55:18 AM
Volume patterns currently show more advancers than decliners and bigger up volume than down volume, but up volume is barely ahead on the NYSE. Total volume is 315 million shares on the NYSE and 413 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  10:52:39 AM
So far, this test appears to be showing us that the downside break of the bear flag formation was a trap. A move over the day's high of 493.56 would complete a double-bottom formation on the OEX five-minute chart, predicting an upside just over 496, but not all targets formed from five-minute patterns are met. This one has not yet been confirmed, either.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  10:43:07 AM
Put to call ratio rises to .90, selling accelerating in treasuries, FVX +10.4 bps, TNX +10.6 and TYX +7.4 bps. There's been no further announcement from the fed, and so the drain announced earlier remains.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  10:42:35 AM
The OEX is testing the bottom of the violated bear flag formation now. As it does, the Dow has moved above 9000 again. Let's see what happens, as it's actually this test rather than the first break of the formation that often gives us the most information.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  10:39:31 AM
I'm watching for a retest of Dow 9000 now, correlating that to what I see on the OEX. A failure to sustain Dow 9000 may be so significant to investor psychology that it outweighs OEX support just below.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  10:36:33 AM
The OEX broke down out of the bear flag. Remember 488 and 485 are just below, too, and plan trades accordingly. Also remember that it's common for violated formations to be retested. It's that test that gives us final information about the strength or weakness of an index or equity.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  10:28:25 AM
The pattern on the OEX five-minute chart is certainly beginning to take on a bear-flag appearance--big drop yesterday afternoon, tight pattern of higher highs and higher lows this morning. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  10:26:35 AM
I'm gong to take some time to put together the components of the DJUSHB 441.60 +0.59% and the HGX.X 281.98 -0.45% as there often times seems to be slight difference in how these to trade on intra-day basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  10:24:14 AM
Help Wanted Index for May came in at 36, which was inline with economist forecast.

Jim Brown reported this in "futures monitor," but I'll post here for those that just have their "options monitor" turned on.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  10:22:09 AM
International Game Tech. (IGT) $100.90 +1% .... from prior bullish profile of $90, bulls that played the "90% of stock that trade $90 trade $100" should look to take profits here, or can raise a stop at $99.50. Bullish vertical count for IGT has been $110.00 Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  10:08:36 AM
7.5B in onvernight repos from the Fed so far, for 5.5B drain. The last announcement should be made by 10:30 if there will be more added or not. The overall put to call ratio is down to .47, with an equity pcr of .43, index pcr .69.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  10:01:49 AM
If the OEX should continue to climb, which is in question as I type, it's possible to draw a descending trendline from the highs since June 16. That descending line now crosses somewhere near 498.50, so anyone playing the bullish side should be planning trades accordingly. Will you plan to take profits ahead of that possible resistance? Take partial profits and let the rest ride? Let it all ride and see what happens?

If you want to play the bearish side, would you buy now, ahead of the test of 488 or 485? Surprisingly, in May and early June, the OEX actually spent more time at 485, testing that level, than it did at 488 although that 487.50-487.94 level had marked important resistance over the last year. Bullish and bearish players alike face multiple obstacles at this level and should plan accordingly. Perhaps the best of all worlds would be a bounce up to 498.50 or so, letting traders take bullish profits, and then a rollover, giving bears a better entry, but the OEX hasn't asked my opinion of how it should trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  9:54:06 AM
Still no word from the Fed regarding the 13B in repos expiring today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  9:51:36 AM
Linda, I gave myself a headache last night trying to figure that out on the SPX, tilting the neckline this way and that. We're getting the bounce as expected, and so it appears to have held for the time being.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  9:50:19 AM
Here's another quandary for bulls and bears alike. Has the neckline of the OEX H&S formation been breached or not? Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  9:48:52 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 438.08 -0.2% ... 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) higher by 6.1 basis points to 4.449%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  9:47:24 AM
Centex Homes (CTX) $78.00 -0.63% ... downside alert here on second consecutive double-bottom sell singal. (See 06/25/03 22:57:46 comments below)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  9:45:25 AM
OEX 491.87 +0.07% .... Now... I could have well "adjusted" a bullish stop lower to WEEKLY S2 of 489.44, which in all respects was a much better technical stop based on WEEKLY/Monthly retracement and "zone of support" from 487.94-489.44, but I was trading the OEX bullish from 497 based on a scenario that the OEX would move higher into the FOMC (which it did) and then get a "spike higher" reaction to the FOMC announcement (which it did not). Therefore I set a tighter stop at 491, just under the MONTHLY pivot analysis retracement with though that it would have served support over the shorter-term on a worse case scenario.

It "may have" and the 490.85 session low may have been a chance to undercut some bullish stops. That's fine for now, but I've now had two losing trades from the bullish side after several winning trades under similar "buy the pullback" setup. As such, I turn more bearish with this type of "change in result."

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  9:43:58 AM
Very strong buying pressure has the TRIN.NQ down to .33, TICK.NQ -36, QQV -.40. FVX is up 7.8 bps, off its highs, TNX +8.4 and TYX +5.8 bps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  9:43:41 AM
We've had an OEX five-minute close over the 491.75 level that marked the midpoint of the first five-minute range. That's a first sign of strength. Now bulls have to maintain that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  9:38:40 AM
Bears are in a quandary here. Not only is the all-important OEX 488 level just below the current OEX price, but Dow 9000 and COMPX 1600 aren't so far away, either. These are strong potential bounce points.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  9:36:33 AM
The first five-minute OEX candle dropped the OEX below 492 support. The midpoint of that first candle is 491.75 and that level will provide the first benchmark to watch during earliest trading. Bulls want to see the OEX pushed back above that level. Bears want to see that level hold as resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  9:35:43 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 490.85 ... stopped on bullish OEX profile from 497.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  9:30:58 AM
Sept. S&P futures (sp03u) here's a chart of the sp03u I've mentioned in the last two Index Trader Wraps. I wanted a hedge for OEX bulls in yesterday's late session based on this chart. Link

I also think that the reason the SPY fell to its WEEKLY S2 in yesterday's late session and closed below, is that when futures market was closed, traders long the futures came in and shorted the SPY for a hedge.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  9:20:06 AM
5B 28-day repo from the fed so far, but this is a wash, standard fare every Thursday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  9:19:11 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  9:07:52 AM
Currently, the FTSE trades at 4042.60, just a point off the day's low. The CAC 40 is headed down again, but at 3092.59 is about 20 points off the day's low. The DAX fell below midday support but is still positive by 3.21 points.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  8:38:12 AM
Treasury yields are way in the green, FVX +8 bps, TNX +9.3 and TYX +6.3.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  8:35:24 AM
The initial claims reading for this week is a three month low.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  8:34:41 AM
US Q1 credit card delinquencies stay at record high Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  8:32:49 AM
8:32am PRIOR WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS ADJUSTED UP 5,000 TO 426,000

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  8:32:31 AM
8:31am US Q1 GDP REVISED DOWN TO 1.4% FROM 1.9%

8:30am INITIAL WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 22,000 TO 404,000

8:31am US Q1 FINAL DOMESTIC SALES UNREVISED AT 1.4%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  8:11:50 AM
The USD Index has launched to 94.81 and August gold down to 346.30. Futures are green, ES +2 at 940 and NQ +4.50 at 1194. QQQ is trading 29.64. It's all noise until the slew of 8:30 data is released.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/26/200,  7:05:54 AM
Good morning. Showing investors' disappointment with the quarter-point U.S. rate cut, the Nikkei opened flat, traded a few points above the flatline, and then headed down for the rest of the morning, closing more than 85 points in the red at the midday break. After the break, investors came back in a different mood and the Nikkei climbed through the afternoon. It closed down only 8.85 points or 0.10%, at 8923.41.

Japanese May retail sales dropped 2.4 percent year-over-year, perhaps souring early morning trading. Also in the morning trading, Japanese financials reeled under their own blows, with the overnight call rate dipping into minus territory so that lenders now pay interest to borrowers. I'd like my mortgage to work that way! By the end of the day, financials had rebounded with the rest of the market. Stock-specific news also showed Sony (SNE) dropping in the morning after its credit rating was cut by Moody's late Wednesday, but climbing with the rest of the market in the afternoon to finish flat.

European markets are mixed this morning. June French manufacturer's confidence slipped to 90, down from May's 92 and lower than the expected 94. Orders fell. Respondents to the survey mentioned strikes by workers in the public sector protesting the planned revisions of the pension system. In stock-specific news, Italian carmaker Fiat announced the planned closing of 12 factories and reduction of 9,500 jobs. Most of those closings and cuts will take place outside Italy. While eliminating those jobs, Fiat will be hiring 5,400 people, presumably outside the units which will see the job reductions.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is down 21.20 points or 0.52%, to 4046.70. Although the FTSE climbed after opening, it then began dropping and currently trades just off the day's low. The CAC 40 and DAX display a different trend this morning, climbing and currently easing slightly in what may be bull flag patterns or the preludes to drops such as the one the FTSE experienced after hitting its day's high. Currently, the CAC 40 trades down 1.26 points or 0.04%, at 3107.44; and the DAX trades up 20.66 points or 0.65%, at 3219.48.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:10:03 PM
Keep and eye on Beazer Homes (BZH) for "rally" to $89 on 3-box reversal? Link

Doh!... traded $88.84 today, but 16-cents shy of $90 before it saw selling.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  11:03:21 PM
Follow the leader? After you looked at CTX and what is taking place, don't you see similar supply/demand chart developing in RYL? Here's PnF chart of RYL. Today did see stock trade $72, so we would have to chart 3-box reversal back up to $72 and stop charting today's activity there. However, take note that RYL did close at $69.49 Link

Here's a RS chart of RYL vs. 30-year YIELD on 2-point box chart. Again, tie in the April data (red 4). Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:57:46 PM
Centex (CTX) relative strength vs. 30-year YIELD Here's an RS chart of CTX vs. 30-year YIELD on 2-point box size. Link

Looks similar to chart shown at 22:47:24 doesn't it?

Now look at CTX's PnF chart by itself Link . Doesn't it look short/put $78, stop $83, initial target of bearish vertical count $70?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:47:24 PM
Homebuilders vs. 30-year YIELD relative strength .... after writing this evenings wrap and discussing further the homebuilders, I thought I also make a relative strength comparison with the DJUSHB vs. 30-year YIELD.

Thought here is that if 30-year YIELD (which many mortgage rates are set by) rises, then it could have mortgage rates rising and potentially have negative impact on homebuilders.

When you look at recent Index Trader Wraps, with retracement overlaid like we've done (October lows to recent highs), it was April 14th that the DJUSHB broke above its 61.8% retracement of 345.32 wasn't it? Now we see the DJUSHB breaking below its 19.1% retracement of 440.59.

Remember, the number "4" on a PnF chart marks an entry that takes place in April. Here's a relative strength chart of the DJUSHB vs. 30-year YIELD ($TNX.X) on 10-point box size. Link

What took place today is a RS "sell signal," which certainly would be an alert to weakness in the DJUSHB and correlation with how a higher 30-year YIELD can impact things at this point. Perhaps just the opposite of how a lower YIELD in April may have spurred the DJUSHB to such an impressive rally.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/25/200,  10:19:54 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/25/200,  7:30:18 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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