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  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  6:53:32 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for next week. Remember that MONTHLY levels will change after Monday's close.Link

Will the major indexes trade lower on Monday, per the Stock Trader's Almanac notes?

Trade action in the BIX.X may give the best levels for which to trade the indexes.

BIX.X = In "pink" I've highlighted that 300.00 level which kept showing up last week, and it is there again at Monday S1. This is early support in the session and as close as this week's low was at 300.47 to the 300 level (psychological or technical) this may be an important level of support early.

On a move below that level, then 299 (DAILY S2/WEEKLY S1) is the level that may stand between a "small Monday decline" or "bigger Monday decline" to 296.80 and WEEKLY S2/MONTHLY Pivot

If history (Dow down 8 of last 11) is not to repeat, the early resistance in the BIX.X of 303 (DAILY Pivot/WEEKLY Pivot) would most likely be broken to the upside (tenetative resistance by dashed red box as it was traded through today) and then has correlative DAILY R2 and WEEKLY R1 resitance of 305 in play as a target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  6:11:14 PM
Diane Garnick on CNBC right now. Was guest on "Crazy" Louis Rukeiser (client of mine used to call him that. My client listened to his program faithfully) last Friday. Worth listening to.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  4:09:40 PM
Have a great weekend, everyone. Get away from the markets and enjoy the sunshine, if you have sunshine to enjoy.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  4:03:26 PM
QQQ $29.93 -0.1% .... sitting right on our upward trend from the March lows here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  3:58:20 PM
Nortel (NT) $2.69 -5% ... close to testing first level of support from retracement work at $2.68.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  3:57:09 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $41.43 +4.5% ... 52-week high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  3:49:49 PM
Beazer Homes (BZH) 85.70 -2.5% ... didn't quite get up to $89.00 where stock traded double bottom sell signal (see yesterday morning's Market Monitor 06/25:2003 11:10:03 PM) Link , but rather nice reversal back lower. Still, 3-box reversal now has bearish vertical count column ($93-$85) in place with bearish count to $75 Link and can better assess risk/reward in trade from here.

Beazer relative strength vs. SPX is on "sell signal" so good looking short/put in my opinion as stock does seem to exhibit some relative weakness vs. broader market. Here's RS chart of BZH vs. SPX Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  3:45:38 PM
Q-charts says the issue with the OEX has been resolved and that the charts are now updating. Mine aren't.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  3:43:32 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $41.14 +3.5% ... session highs here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  3:37:14 PM
Volume patterns currently show decliners leading advancers, with adv/dec ratios at 15:17 for the NYSE and 14:17 for the Nasdaq. Down volume leads. New highs appear to have picked up again, too. Total volume as of a few moments ago was 1 billion for the NYSE and 1.3 billion for the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  3:33:23 PM
(Hello All, I'm borrowing Linda's link as mine is not working -- I apologize in advance!)

Ray Cummins -- Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Today was previously touted by many analysts as a "feel good" Friday, but it seems like much of the market's luster has worn off in the afternoon session. Our portfolio was no different as a number of stocks retreated amid the renewed selling pressure. Most notable in this category was Nike (NYSE:NKE), a new position in the "premium selling" section. Nike shares tumbled this morning after the company reported weak U.S. orders and was downgraded by Merrill Lynch. Our bullish spread at $55 is now in jeopardy and conservative traders should consider closing the position to limit losses. Another unpleasant surprise occurred in MDC Holdings (NYSE:MDC), which announced Thursday that it expects fiscal second-quarter earnings to beat analyst's consensus estimates. MDC said the improvement was due to net home orders that were 20% higher than those of the same quarter in 2002. Regardless of the reason, the issue is now testing resistance near the sold (call) strike at $50 and the position should be monitored closely for a potential early-exit.

As we move into the week-end, other issues on the watch-list include Biogen (NASDAQ:BGEN), Idec Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:IDPH), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Lexmark (NYSE:LXK), and Merck (MYSE:MRK).

(Thanks for letting me use your link!)

Previous comments From Linda Piazza:

I'd like to make a definitive statement about the OEX, but since I'm not getting up-to-date charts, that's difficult to do. Do you have a plan in place for contingencies such as these?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  3:02:18 PM
Both of us are using Qcharts' datafeed, and cannot resolve this question:

Bonds yields have been flat on qcharts since 14:30. Did they close early or do you have a feed? If so, what's the TYX now? I have 46.08 as of 14:30.Thanks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  3:00:10 PM
Sixty-minute OEX indicators are now in full bear mode. Thirty-minute ones are, too, but the short-term 5(3)3 stochastics keep trying to kick up again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  2:52:20 PM
The US Dollar Index is all over the map, but staying above 95.00 so far. August gold is up 1.40 at 345.60, HUI +1.03 and XAU +.62.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  2:50:10 PM
It looks as if that pattern on the OEX five-minute chart will hold until the bond market closes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  2:39:38 PM
Nortel (NT) $2.73 -4.21% .... nice little move underway in NT. Here's how I have my NT chart set up with retracement. Link

Just playing a little "follow the leader" from Lucent (LU) $1.98 -2.46%. See how LU fell for 2 sessions after breaking 50-day SMA? Link

If on Monday, NT falls to target of $2.52, might look for it to bounce back like LU has, but then may rotate to short LU.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  2:37:42 PM
No breakdown or upside breakout on the OEX consolidation pattern yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  2:31:13 PM
That five-minute pattern on the OEX is now morphing into a symmetrical triangle. It's dangerous to draw too many conclusions too soon when these patterns first start setting up. We'll have to just let it break one direction or the other. As traders make end-of-day decisions today, they should remain aware of the double 490.85 low and potential support just below the current OEX level as well as possible support at 488 and 485.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  2:20:10 PM
The OEX makes another attempt at a bounce. Looking at a five-minute chart, I could imagine a bear-flag formation setting up at the end of the plummet or I could imagine a bullish right triangle with a top near 493. They obviously have different implications, but the usual result of consolidation near the bottom of a sharp drop is another drop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  2:18:02 PM
QQQ $29.77 -0.76% ... "asleep at the wheel?".... I had an upside alert set at $30.60, but not the WEEKLY pivot of $30.51. I may have missed a good bearish entry point from last night's Index Trader Wrap. This pullback just found some buyers at WEEKLY S1 of $29.79 (kissed $29.77). Will look for short/put back at $30.22 now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  2:12:36 PM
The bounce near the alternative OEX H&S neckline was tepid at best before the OEX headed down again. Volume patterns begin to show the effects of the selling, with decliners now ahead of advancers and down volume ahead of up volume.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  2:10:51 PM
Agco (AG) $17.08 -2.41% .... Agriculture equipment maker warned on earnings and revised outlook. Link

Now... I would be hesitant to short/put at this point. Reason I say this is that I may have shared with Market Monitor traders back in May my "turkey hunt vacation" when I went to Kansas for a week. All the papers and news in them is toward ranch/agriculture. In one of the papers I was reading, they were interviewing a farm implement retailer and he was saying that recent spring/summer droughts had his retail sales of new equipment down some 50% year over year in recent years. Farmer were going bust or just couldn't afford new equipment he was selling.

After I read that, first thing I did do when I got back to Denver was look at point and figure charts of AG and DE Link

Now... May (red 5) I didn't see the technical "confirmation" to what I had just read. However, today's 3-box reversal in DE is more compelling after recent test of bearish resistance.

If looking to short/put and farm/ag implement, I'd rather short/put DE and AG based on trend.

I should note though.... farmers in Northeastern Kansas were all wearing BIG smiles this spring as they had gotten lots of rain.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  2:05:55 PM
Put to call ratio .92, index pcr 2.72 and equity pcr .67. Looks like that load of index puts was pretty well timed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  1:47:37 PM
Yields are off their highs, and money is moving back into treasuries, FVX +3.4 bps now, TNX +3.9. TRIN.NQ is 1.33 showing slight selling pressure, TICK.NQ full-on bearish at -330. SPX has support at 975, Thursday's morning low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  1:41:53 PM
The OEX has broken through its 21-dma, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  1:37:28 PM
The 1:45 ET push came early again today, testing support. The OEX has now plunged through one version of the H&S neckline (the horizontal one), but hasn't yet moved through the slanting version, now at about 492.50. Remember that the test of support/resistance that comes about this time of day is a test. An immediate bounce from this level will tell market participants that support is going to hold and they can go long. A tepid bounce or no bounce tells them something different.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  1:23:59 PM
I haven't been able to bring myself to short SSCC just yet, Jeff. Maybe it's because of that Smurf in their name?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  1:21:00 PM
The OEX now tests 496, another of those prior S/R resistance levels from intraday charts. 30 and 60-minute charts now look more consistently bearish, although 30-minute RSI slants down at the kind of shallow slope that sometimes indicates an imminent turn up again. That descending line off the June 17 high is now located near 495.25, another potential level of S/R. If you're in bearish or bullish plays, watch for bounce potential from that level, although those 30-minute and 60-minute charts don't show that potential just yet. Advancers still lead decliners, however, and up volume is still ahead of down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  1:11:31 PM
The smurf! Ah Linda... how could you be bearish on a company with such a neat name like Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (NASDAQ:SSCC) $13.22 -2.10%? They make a lot of cardboard boxes and stuff.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  1:10:46 PM
Interesting. The buying in bonds reversed completed, with the TNX up 5.7 bps, despite the renewal of the expiring 7.5B repo and 500M extra. Note that the money certainly hasn't found it's way into equities so far- I wonder where it's being deployed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  1:07:07 PM
GP is in the $FPP, although I'm not sure of their exact business, along with IP, BOW, SSCC, and some others I can't remember right now, Jeff. I've been watching SSCC for a possible short, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  1:04:43 PM
Hmmmm.... Georgia Pacific (GP) - $19.15 -3.5% ... kind of gets "whacked" after trading $20.00 and comparable November high. Link

Aren't these guys in the lumber business?

My tie here is not as a "good looking short," but a stock that may be associated with homebuilders. GP fortunes aren't just tied to that sector, as lumber prices (commodity) could impact stock up or down. However.... If short/put some homebuilders and see renewed strength, would monitor GP for strength too. As homebuilder bear right now, I'd rather see GP stay right where it is at if not lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  12:51:44 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Have had a couple questions regarding last night's Pnf chart and my "changing" of stockcharts.com box size above 1,000 from 50-point to 10-point scale. And question being... "just because Dorsey does it, doesn't mean it is right."

This is good to always question, but it makes so much sense to only have 10-point increment above 1,000. You see, most traders don't just think "point move," the good ones think "percentage" move.

Good test is to simply look at the SPY. Should scale above $100 be changed to increments of $5.00 or left at $2.00 Link to properly show "point" move relative to price gain and more accurately reflect moves of equal percentage? You see, a move from $100 to $102 is 2%, but if you change the box size to $5.00, now your measuring a 5% move. That's a pretty big difference as it relates to such a broad index isn't it?

Nope... I'll stick with 10-point increments on the SPX above 1,000.

Please note: Both Dorsey/Wright and Stockcharts.com show a SPY trade of $97.00. This is incorrect and come from a "bad tick" yesterday.

Interesting look for day traders though isn't it at the close? If Stock Trader's Alamanac mentioning of historical tendency come true on Monday and Tuesday, it might play into a bear's hand. Trade at $97 on Monday (historical tendency to trade down), maybe a 3-box reversal back higher to $100.00 on Tuesday, or Wednesday (short/put entry for bear, stop $104 on "bull trap" pattern). Then... maybe, just maybe... get the "sell signal" to the downside at $97.00 for the summer pullback.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  12:39:10 PM
30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) higher by 4 basis points at 4.602%

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) higher by 3.8 basis points at 3.566%.

I haven't had a chance to discuss these current YIELD levels, but may be important YIELD levels here as it relates to homebuilders and perhaps broader market averages.

This would tie back to Index Trader Wrap of 06/18/03 Link and discussion we had there regarding the more "notable" shift as it related to YIELD going lower, but equities still going higher, where in the past, lower YIELD had spelled "doom" for equities. In essence, we may be at an "oil/water" type level where we might monitor for equity weakness, should YIELD flip much above the 3.559%.

Now.... I'm also thinking that this YIELD level might also be a level where the Fed might be a buyer of longer-dated Treasury after cutting just 25 basis points if they wanted to try and inject some cash into economy.

As a benchmark for future test.... SPX 985.22, OEX 496.76, DOW 9,078, NDX 1,221, QQQ $30.37, DJUSHB 446, HGX.X 285.78

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  12:23:06 PM
12:00 Internals ...

NYSE 5,548 -0.12% .. Vol: 494m A/D 18:11 NH/NL 88:4 (daily ratio 95.7%)

NASDAQ 1,643 +0.4% .. Vol: 672 A/D 16:11 NH/NL 121:4 (daily ratio 96.8%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  12:17:46 PM
Here's an OEX daily chart that I posted earlier this week. I've been posting it at regular intervals for several weeks now, sometimes updating it and sometimes leaving the previous notations so you and I can see what's changed. Today I'm leaving the notations as they were earlier in the week. Link Note that earlier in the week, I'd suggested watching how RSI performed in relationship to its ascending trendline and how the OEX performed in relationship to its 21-dma. Failures of either to maintain those levels would be a sign of weakness. Tuesday's drop was accompanied by an RSI violation of its ascending trendline and an OEX violation of its 21-dma. Today, the RSI rises to test that trendline again, but appears to be flattening below it. The OEX again trades just below its 21-dma. Watch to see how the OEX closes today in relationship to its 21-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  12:08:12 PM
Adv/dec ratios remain bullish, but not as strongly so as they did earlier. On the NYSE, the ratio is 18:12 and on the Nasdaq it's 16:13. Up volume barely outstrips down volume on the NYSE, but is 2.9 times down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  12:04:57 PM
OEX 498 did not hold, obviously. As the OEX descends, it now comes back toward the descending line off the June 17 low. It bumped above that line earlier today. Will it hold as support now? It crosses now at about 495.65, but will descend as the hours progress, of course. That line now crosses near the 495-495.80 congestion zone that has been S/R for the OEX. The OEX is now slowing its descent near the 496.30 level that has also provided some support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  11:48:14 AM
Stochastics and RSI on 30-minute and 60-minute OEX charts aren't giving trustworthy signals. They're all either in or approaching levels indicating oversold conditions. They're tending to roll down or up with every blip on the price screen. On the 60-minute chart, those oscillators may be setting up for bearish divergence because they're ascending to higher highs while prices have not yet done so. That potential bearish divergence can be undone if the prices bump up above the last 500.76 high before the oscillators complete their roll down toward oversold levels again.

To be honest, I don't like entering option trades on Friday unless it's one of those "all my ducks in a row" days, with volume patterns, oscillators, bond prices, VIX levels, and as many other indicators as possible working for my side of the trade. First, I don't want to hold over a weekend's premium devaluation unless I'm sure about a trade. Also, when examining my trading log some time ago, I found that my type of trades (of a few days' or weeks' duration) didn't perform as well when I entered them on a Thursday or Friday. That's because end-of-week position sometimes distorted trading behavior, I decided. Oscillators might be looking bearish, for example, but shortcovering ahead of a weekend might bump the index up way above a Friday morning bearish entry, for example. Perhaps it's just that I'm tired by the end of the week and make less clear decisions. Perhaps it's a combination. However, my trading style now dictates that I enter option trades on a Friday only if a majority of indicators is going my direction. That's not happening today as yet.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  11:41:02 AM
Put to call ratio drops to 1.13, equity pcr .75, index pcr 3.86. Yields now green across the curve as treasury selling resumes.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  11:30:27 AM
Has anyone noticed how this month's IPO, FORM, has been performing? At 17.95, it's considerably above its $14.00 original offering price. It's also below its first-day high of 21, a high that didn't persist too long. The daily chart may be showing an incipient bullish triangle setting up with a move over 18.25 confirming that formation. There's not enough information on that daily chart to convince me to invest in FORM, but I monitor it from time to time as the performance of IPO's is one measure of the optimism in a market and perhaps of the liquidity coming into a market, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  11:25:23 AM
The OEX pulled back to test 498. So far, that level seems to be holding as support, and bulls certainly want it to continue to do so.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  11:10:55 AM
The put to call ratio is "down" to 1.25, index pcr now 4.43 and equity pcr .82.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  11:03:23 AM
Indeed, bond selling has stalled, but the buying this morning has as well, with FVX now down just 1.1 bps, TNX -.7 bps and TYX +.6. TRIN.NQ is still buried at .37, TICK.NQ +157.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  11:00:33 AM
Oxford Health (OHP) $42.35 +1.41% .... per yesterday's market monitor post, stock makes its way above 3-day resistance. Link

HMO Index (HMO.X) 711.59 +0.73%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  11:00:01 AM
OEX has cleared the 498 hurdle. OEX 500.75 is next resistance, although 500 itself might be deemed psychological resistance. After that, watch 502 and 502.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  10:57:54 AM
Children's Place (PLCE) $20.37 +4.5% ... follow up to early day post. Quick look at NASDAQ shows short interest at 2.7 million shares Link , which would be 10% of of 26.6 million shares outstanding and 23.2% of float (12 million shares).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  10:52:39 AM
The OEX had moved back into the channel, but is dropping back to the bottom line again after contending with the 498 level I thought might top the OEX's movements yesterday. The OEX never reached that level yesterday, however. There's lots of money to be made with these volatile movements, but which direction is trustworthy? Now the hourly oscillators are being redrawn into more bullish postures, with bearish kisses now erased or nearly erased. Volume patterns are positive, but that up/down volume figure on the NYSE is a little worrisome. Based on these indications, up appears to be the preferred direction for the moment, but the OEX confronts layers of resistance with each move up, too, and those hourly oscillators look toppy. We OEX traders have more difficulty than futures trades capturing profit during choppy movements because of the wide OEX bid/ask spreads.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  10:48:20 AM
Nortel (NT) $2.77 -2.8% ... getting some stock at the bid here. Looks short per 10:18:42.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  10:46:43 AM
That put to call reading is based on an equity pcr of .87 and an index pcr of 5.41. Someone is taking a very large downside bet on the indices.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  10:42:31 AM
Put to call ratio climbs to 1.42, with QQV green, +.17, VXN -.01 flat, and VIX -.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  10:41:11 AM
Children's Place (PLCE) $20.40 +4.6% .... Children's retailer that looks to be benefiting from today's income/spending data. Vertical count bullish to $32.50. Today's trade at $20.00 negates "bull trap" pattern. Bullish resistance trend would be at $25 currently, and near-term target. Look for trade at $21 to signal further upside on spread-triple-top buy signal. Link

December $20 call (TUYLD) bid/offer $2.90/$3.00 and that is equivalent to downside risk to sell signal at $16.50, but allows exposure to stock into holiday shopping season.

See the July 20 puts (TUYSD) traded 25 and most likely naked put seller. Good premium trade in my opinion for naked put sellers.

Less aggressive nake put sell could try working an offer in between the July 17.50 puts (TUYSW) at $0.35 or $0.30.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  10:36:51 AM
The CBOE put to call data is tardy. You can watch for it at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  10:34:15 AM
So far, volume patterns show significantly more advancers than decliners, and up volume beating down volume on the Nasdaq. Up and down volume are roughly equal on the NYSE, however, with down volume actually in the lead by 24 million. Total volume is light, at 221 million the NYSE and 324 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  10:31:31 AM
The OEX now tests the underside of the channel depicted in my 10:10 post. It pierced the bottom line of the channel, but then fell back on the five-minute close. It's this test that will tell us about OEX strength. Lately, a likely thing to have happen is for the OEX to climb the bottom of the channel.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  10:21:42 AM
Many OEX 60-minute oscillators lean toward the bearish side, with both 5(3)3 and 21(3)3 stochs making bearish kisses and RSI looking as if it's about to roll. MACD, slower to change, still slants up, although it's below 0. CCI is turning down. Thirty-minute oscillators add ambiguity to the mix, however. There MACD flattens and both stochs have already rolled, but the shorter-term 5(3)3's look as if they want to hinge up again, and RSI has already begun to do so. My interpretation remains the same as it was late yesterday afternoon--perhaps some modest gains or consolidation while all the oscillators reset to overbought and head down again. However, that's just a guess. A strong whoosh down will roll all the oscillators and they have plenty of room to go down. A strong whoosh up will just pin them in overbought territory, though, and we've seen that happen a lot lately while the markets continue to climb. I don't expect new highs or even new relative highs, but there's that whole end-of-quarter and end-of-half thing with which to contend. Daily oscillators are mixed, too. I'm always afraid of chop when I see oscillators acting this way.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  10:18:42 AM
Nortel (NT) $2.79 -1.75% .... looks short if session low $2.77 traded, stop $2.87, target $2.52

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  10:12:17 AM
The CBOE put to call ratio has come in very high at 1.20. VIX, VXN and QQV are all positive, and this looks like a bullish reading so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  10:10:23 AM
Here's the formation I'm watching this morning on the OEX hourly chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  10:04:31 AM
The fed has just announced a 5 day repo of 8B, which is a 500M net addition today. Treasury buying has slowed, with FVX -3.4 bps, TNX -2.6 and TYX +.6 bps currently. August gold is up 1.90 to 346.10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  10:01:07 AM
Jeff, you and I agree. I was studying SNDK (and ADIC) Wednesday evening, thinking SNDK sure looked good for a long play. I was afraid of a market dip yesterday, though, due to the historical tendency to trade down the day after an FOMC decision, and just felt leery.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  9:57:21 AM
Darn! almost took a day trade long in SanDisk (SNDK) $40.95 +3% at yesterday's close, but wanted to see a trade at $40.00 into the close. Still holding calls, but stock looked like some short-covering was coming in on yesterday's weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  9:54:08 AM
University of Michigan final sentiment of 89.7 for June was well above consensus of 87.2, but equities see selling. Might have been something "inside" the numbers.

Bond market sees slight divergence with 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) down 5 basis points at 2.399%, while longest-dated 30-year ($TYX.X) unch 4.561%. Steepening YIELD curve here can put lid on equities.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  9:51:54 AM
The sentiment number overcame the attempt at a first reversal on the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  9:50:09 AM
The OEX found support again at the 495.30 level that had supported it yesterday afternoon. The first reversal of the day has begun. Let's see if it takes the OEX above that descending line off the June 17 high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  9:48:52 AM
9:48am U.S. JUNE FINAL UMICH SENTIMENT 89.7 VS. 92,1 MAY

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  9:38:44 AM
Gentex (GNTX) $30.43 -1.13% .... per last night's Index Trader Wrap and "bull trap" pattern in S&P 500 Index (SPX.X)Link , looking for some stocks with similar pattern.

GNTX "fits the pattern" and stock is weaker this morning. Link

For those of you that have purchased Tom Dorsey's book on Point and Figure charting, his first edition discusses the pattern on page 62 and 63.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  9:38:21 AM
The first five-minute OEX candle was a run-of-the-mill regular-sized candle, so the midpoint of its range is not going to be particularly helpful to watch. Instead, switch to watching the day's current high, at 497.36. When we get our first reversal this morning, due shortly, bulls want to see that high exceeded.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  9:33:35 AM
TRIN.NQ .33, TICK.NQ +222, QQV +.28 shows broad buying pressure on the COMPX.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  9:22:49 AM
The fed has 7.5B in overnight repos expiring today, with the announcement due between 10AM and 10:30.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  9:21:55 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/27/200,  9:01:40 AM
Inflation-adjusted after-tax incomes rose 0.4 percent in May. Real consumer spending rose 0.3 percent. The personal consumption expenditure price index fell 0.1 percent in May.

Futures are slightly green, ES +.75 to 984.25, NQ +2 to 1219. August gold is up 1.30 to 345.50. Yields are red for a change, FVX -7.6 bps, TNX -6.6 and TYX -2.9 bps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   6/27/200,  8:43:02 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei got off to a roaring start, opening above 9000 and climbing as high as 9088.30 in early trading before retreating into the midday break. After the midday break, investors were ready to go again, sending the Nikkei up all afternoon. The Nikkei closed up 180.65 points or 2.02%, at 9104.06 and just under the day's high. Investors in the Japanese market received two pieces of encouraging information on Friday: May industrial production rose 2.5% and the jobless rate remained at 5.4%. Both those numbers were positive surprises. However, another report showed that the June Tokyo core consumer prices remained flat from May's number. Since so much of the Japanese population is concentrated in Tokyo, the Tokyo number is considered a harbinger of the expected national results, which are released later.

Many other Asian bourses climbed, too, although the Taiwan Weighted fell 0.33%. South Korea's Kospi gained 0.23%, Singapore's Straits Times climbed 1.35%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.53%. China's Shanghai Composite also fell, 1.21%. John Snow commented that China might widen the trading band of its currency, so that it is no longer fixed near 8.3 to the U.S. dollar. That should lead to an appreciation of China's undervalued yuan, many feel.

European markets are mixed. The FTSE 100 is currently positive, despite the release of Britain's revised Q1 GDP number showing that GDP rose only 0.1% in the first quarter rather than the 0.2% number first released. Construction output declined, as did consumer spending. Services industries saw growth, however, rising 0.4%. Government spending also increased as the U.K. headed into war with Iraq. Economists revised the annual GDP growth prediction down to 2.1% from the previous 2.2%. Perhaps the FTSE 100 didn't react to this number as it's considered old news or perhaps it was a "bad news is good news scenario" as it upped hopes for a rate cut by the ECB.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is up 11 points or 0.29%, to 4053.60. The CAC 40 is down 14.40 points or 0.46%, to 3089.06; and the DAX is down 6.52 points or 0.20%, to 3234.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/27/200,  8:28:05 AM
Pivot Matrix for today at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   6/26/200,  12:36:23 AM
The Index Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   6/26/200,  12:36:08 AM
The Futures Trader Wrap has been posted: Link

 
 
  James Brown   6/26/200,  12:35:50 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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