Option Investor
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  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  4:25:23 PM
ImClone (IMCL) $34.07 -3.4% ... Jeff: Was ImClone halted today? I don't see it trading a single share?

Yesterday they got their filings in with the SEC and trade again under the IMCL symbol, not the IMCLE symbol.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  3:59:25 PM
Swing Trade Signals
This is not where I wanted the trade to be at the end of the day, but we expected a bounce or two along the way to relieve oversold pressure. The OEX is now just below the 30-minute 100 and 130-pma's, at 498.13 and 498.72. The 60-minute 100-pma has been declining and now is at 498.70, lending its resistance. Over that, we have the 21-dma, currently at 500.18.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  3:59:06 PM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 77.48 +0.28% ... gains faded a bit into the close, but still the only sector I show holding a gain by the close.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  3:55:01 PM
Micron Technology (MU) $13.93 -3.33% ... trying to claw its way back to $14.00. I thing broader market weakness and TXN news that it sold some of its holdings weighs on stock today, but think bull gets feel MU holding tough for a day.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  3:52:22 PM
QQQ $31.60 -1.86% ... trying to make a move above the MONTHLY 19.1% retracement here. Slight hint of bullishness here.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  3:50:49 PM
QQQ ... what are the odds favoring the qqq's trading below 31 between today & tommorow, i have a heavy put position in july 32, and it will take 30.75 approximately for me to break even. i am following you suggestion about the qqq's & it is geeting confused or worried a little here, evn though i see a potential down move to 30.58 and gap fill from monday morning trade. thanks in advance

We've got PPI data due out tomorrow morning before the opening bell.

I don't know what your risk tolerance is, but I'm in same situation with SPX puts at 980. Do I close out for smaller loss, or wait and see what shakes out tomorrow morning?

Depending on how long you've been holding $32 puts, another "option" is to sell 1/2 of the position here at WEEKLY R1 support, which so far, looks to be holding.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  3:46:15 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Unless stopped out at the close, I have decided to adhere to our original plan and hold the Swing Trade position overnight. That decision is based on the speed with which the 30-minute 5(3)3 stochastics have cycled all the way back up toward levels indicating overbought conditions. Daily oscillators still support our position. Earlier today, I suggested that conservative players might want to set their stops at breakeven and that's still a good plan.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  3:38:12 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  3:26:23 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
If the Dow does not drop below 9000, I am considering exiting the play on the close and am alerting you now so that you can think through your own decision. Although my intention is normally to stay in trades two to five days, both 30-minute and 60-minute charts are primed to turn up again, adding to the bounce potential that's strengthened by the Dow holding 9000 today. My intention is that we could then reenter the same play on the test and failure of upside resistance.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  3:12:15 PM
I'm watching OEX 496.30-496.40 as the next line of light resistance, thinking it may coincide with a Dow test of 9030.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  3:04:58 PM
Put to call ratio drops to .75, QQV -.21, VXN +.46, VIX +.94.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  3:01:58 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
OEX 501.75 still makes the most sense to me for an exit for our official OEX short/put position, but depending on your strike, you should be profitable now. Conservative traders might want to lower their stops to breakeven.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  2:58:51 PM
Adv/dec ratios now stand at .37 for the NYSE and .43 for the Nasdaq, with down volume 6.5 times up volume on the NYSE and 5.3 times up volume on the NYSE. Still bearish, but with the OEX pushing up to the top of its descending trendline, we'll be watching for a change in these volume patterns.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  2:52:02 PM
02:00 PM EST internals ... still showed a build at the 52-week high, while new lows were still rather steady.

NYSE showed gain of 13 new highs since 01:00 to 99, while new lows the same at 5.

NASDAQ showed a gain of 9 new highs to 188, while new lows stayed at 7.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  2:48:02 PM
Remember that potential H&S on the 60-minute OEX charts in the middle of June? The one whose downside target was not met? Guess where the OEX trades right now? Exactly at one possible neckline for that H&S. A break of this level again could be significant, but that may make it even more difficult to break. Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  2:45:38 PM
Homebuilders .... I've been monitoring CTX -2.72% Link , BZH -2.85% Link and RYL -2.49% Link with rather obvious the MARKET finds something more "bullish" about RYL and the other two.

BZH has given relative strength "sell signal" vs. SPX Link while CTX also on "sell signal" Link , but RYL still quite strong Link

If anything, shorter-term bearish traders will most likely be better served to focus on CTX or BZH at this point in time.

Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 445.30 -2.5% and PHLX Housing Index (HGX.X) 284.42 moving in unison.

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) still holding near unchanged on the session at 4.714%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  2:36:57 PM
Another .77 put to call reading just out. VIX up to +1.17 at 22.16, VXN +.73 and QQV -.20.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  2:34:19 PM
Swing Trade Signals
On the last decline, the OEX did not hit the bottom of the descending five-minute channel before it began to bounce. Although it did reach a lower low, that's the first troublesome sign for our bearish play that we've seen all day, and it comes courtesy of the Dow's refusal to trade below 9000. I don't think the Dow 9000 story is over yet, but we may be seeing the first tiny signs of a potential bounce. Potential intraday resistance now lies at 496.40, 497.30, 498.50, and is perhaps strongest from 499.20-499.80.

  James Brown   7/10/200,  2:25:25 PM
Feeling bearish? Check out HD and PG. Shares of Home Depot (HD) have completed a double-top at resistance of $35. Today's move has the stock breaking down through its rising channel and the simple 30-dma. To make the picture even more tempting for the bears is HD's P&F chart, where the rally has hit face first into bearish resistance of, you guessed it, $35.

Meanwhile Procter & Gamble (PG) has been churning sideways between $88 and $93 for more than three months. This Dow component has been a leader to the downside the last two sessions and currently is holding just above its simple 200-dma. Last time shares broke under the $88 mark and paused just above the 200-dma (May 13, 2003) it was a bear trap and the stock quickly rebounded. This time bearish traders may do better to actually wait for the breakdown first before initiating positions.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  2:20:04 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I showed one of my daily OEX charts this morning when I talked about the potential trade setups, but I've had a request or two to show the settings and indicators I usually use. Link Because I tend to rely often on trendline breaks, my charts sometimes are so marked up that I create several versions, and it's important to say that my first consideration is the price action. My charts might not all include the same indicators, and I tend to use different MA's on different charts (use 100-pma's more often on the intradays than I do on the daily, for example) but here are the ones I watch most often. If I had to rank them, I'd check RSI trendline violations first. I like stochs if the ADX shows me that they're reliable (ADX under 20, if possible). I do usually check ADX for that confirmation, although I did not include it on this chart. I like CCI, too, as it gives a clear "is the market performing well or not" indication.

You might note that I don't have pivot analysis points marked on my OEX charts. I've tried them, and I understand how important those points are for those trading futures or perhaps the SPX, but I just find over and over that the pivot points I've marked were areas I would have identified anyway due to historical S/R or trendlines I've drawn or some other parameter. I do check them every night, but I just don't mark up my charts with them each and every day. If you believe that only pivot analysis will do for you, I'm not the trader to guide your trades.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  2:11:43 PM
High reading of the day on the CBOE put to call ratio, .77 for the last half hour. Treasuries have barely budged, FVX -2.6, TNX -1.5 and TYX + 0.9 bps. QQV -.03, VXN +.56 and VIX +.79. TRIN.NQ is up to 2.23, a moderately high reading, but way above its recent range on the upleg. TICK.NQ -29.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  2:10:17 PM
SPX intra-day chart .... and trade management plan from prior bearish profile of 980 last week. Link

And here is our unconventional 6-point box, where a longer-term bear can now move a bearish stop down from 1,020 to 1,014 on the 3-box reversal. Link

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  1:51:33 PM
As I expected the 1:45 push (arriving a little late today at 1:50) will be a test of next resistance. The OEX gapped up on the one-minute chart. The top of the descending channel is now near 496.80. Let's see if the OEX can sustain a move over that level. Remember that this test at this time of the day is just that--a test--and we don't yet know the outcome.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  1:32:42 PM
QQQ/SPX .... both found session lows sow far with SPX at MONTHLY pivot and QQQ and WEEKLY R1. Will take note of this here.

I missed the QQQ alert at WEEKLY R1 as I was trying to get the 01:00 Update e-mailed and posted, but still looks like that level will be tested again and Dow continues to wabble below its WEEKLY pivot of 9,030

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  1:28:00 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  1:26:37 PM
Here's what I'm seeing on an OEX five-minute chart: Link At some point, gravity should take over and the OEX should plummet again, but gravity isn't going to assert its full weight as long as there's danger of a bounce at Dow 9000. Until then, there's always danger of a bounce in the OEX, too.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  1:16:10 PM
I like to use the ratio method of comparing advancing and declining volume rather than the subtraction method, because the ratio method tends to remain truer if total volume declines or zooms. That's why I feel comfortable comparing adv/dec numbers during the lunchtime lull to the numbers during more active trading. Unless a disproportionate number of sellers all went to lunch together leaving only buyers behind, for example, those ratios should reflect actual bias. Currently, adv/dec ratios are .39 for NYSE-traded issues and .42 for Nasdaq-traded issues, remaining relatively steady--and bearish--since midmorning. Down volume is 6.7 times up volume on the NYSE and 4.3 times up volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume is 769 million on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  1:06:27 PM
Put to call ratio drops to .71.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  12:51:49 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,016 -1.67% .... continues lower from WEEKLY Pivot of 9,030 here.

This has me wanting to look for some type of conolidation for QQQ at WEEKLY R1 at this point and SPX/OEX at their WEEKLY pivot, which look to be tested.

Now starting to see some pickup in buying among Treasuries.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  12:46:43 PM
Mirant (MIR) $2.17 -20% ... This is energy trader discussed long ago during Enron troubles. Merrill saying today it think company headed for bankruptcy.

Subscriber sends e-mail regarding if he should close out covered call, which has me thinking he/she is long the stock. I'd at least be getting out of this one from the bullish side of the stock. Link

Stock has been weak, but trade at $2.00 could be the final "axing" and $1.00 wouldn't be good either. Vertical count currently bearish to $0.75.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  12:45:28 PM
Latest put to call ratio .72, equity pcr .62 and index pcr 1.07.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  12:43:56 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX achieves a new low of the day. I remain watchful not only of Dow 9000, but COMPX 1700, but at least we've got some cushion behind us now as we face Dow 9000 and a possible bounce.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  12:35:39 PM
S&P 500 (SPX.X) intra-day chart on 5-minute intervals.Link

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  12:28:52 PM
With the Dow hanging just above 9000, the next downside points may be hard won. On the OEX, the 30-minute oscillators are already showing a flattening in territory indicating oversold conditions, although the hourly ones are still in full bear decline. The adv/dec ratios are now .34 for NYSE-traded issues and .40 for Nasdaq-traded ones--still bearish. Down volume is 6.9 times up volume on the NYSE and 5.2 times up volume on the Nasdaq.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  12:26:04 PM
Treasuries have edged up, FVX -2.6, TN -2.5 and TYX +0.1 bps. The VIX is up .71, pulled back from its day highs, both QQV and VXN now slightly in the green. It's still a complacent market, despite yesterday's and today's selling.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  12:13:00 PM
The put to call ratio has climbed to .73 for this past half hour.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  12:08:58 PM
12:00 Market Internals wanted to chech the NH/NL ratios here.....

NYSE shows 77 new highs and 4 new lows (daily ratio 95.1%)

NASDAQ shows 174 new highs and 4 new lows (daily ratio 97.9%)

At these markings, would still have 10-day average moving up in NYSE from yesterday's 95.6% to 96.2% and NASDAQ from 95.1% to 95.6%.

So... still willing to look for a QQQ bullish trade at WEEKLY R1 right now. Let's monitor weaker Dow for any type of stability.

At same time, I'm not looking to do anything at this point with prior bearish profile of SPX from 980. Traders holding an SPX partial put from 980 with cash on hand may not mind a QQQ long near $31.37 at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  12:02:18 PM
QQQ $31.54 -2% .... Hmmmm... see a "bad tick" from earlier today at $31.36, which is very close to our WEEKLY R1 of $31.37. Session low has been right here at $31.52.

Never sure, but that "bad tick" at $31.36 may hint of some target near-term.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  12:00:49 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Although the Swing Trade signal was based on OEX parameters, the Dow's action may be the governing one over the next few hours as it approaches and tests 9000.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  11:59:42 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,024 -1.44% .... getting downside alert here at WEEKLY Pivot of 9,030.

This now has me looking for SPX/OEX tests back at WEEKLY pivots of 981 and 494 respective.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  11:57:31 AM
YIELD/equity relationship not "playing out" like I thought it might today.

I've checked August Fed Funds futures (ff03q) 99.02 (unch) and they're flat as a pancake, with MARKET not forecasting any Fed move in August at this point.

At this point, alert for a stock bid as Dollar Index (dx00y) 95.63 +0.05% holding steady, and not seeing a rush into Treasuries. Hint to me just a real good round of profit taking at this point.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  11:54:22 AM
August gold is climbing too, up 1.50 at its high of the day at 345.40.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  11:52:49 AM
Swing Trade Signals
It's nice to have a trade working our direction straight from our entry, but we can't count on that to continue. We can expect some hesitation again and maybe a bounce attempt at the current level and down to 496.70, and again beginning about 492.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  11:51:30 AM
Stocks continue their decline Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,038 -1.285 rapidly approaching WEEKLY Pivot of 9,030.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  11:50:06 AM
Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 77.68 +0.54% ... bids green here.

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 4.715% still fractionally green, higher by 0.4 basis points, but that's it. "Inflation?"

  Mark Phillips   7/10/200,  11:48:44 AM
AMGN Despite my concerns that AMGN was due for a pullback after tagging our initial target of $70 on Tuesday, I have been amazed at the stock's resiliency in the past few days, as it once more challenged that level before showing some mild weakness after the open. One thing is for certain, and that is that traders have had more than ample opportunity to harvest gains at this clear resistance level. For those of you following along with the corresponding long position in the LEAPS portfolio, my inclination is to get aggressive with stops there too, raising them to $67, which is just below the most recent breakout ($67.50), as well as the sharply rising 10-dma ($67.50). Remember, even in the LEAPS portfolio, we're only targeting a move to the $72 level, so for those of you with a more conservative approach, I certainly wouldn't discourage you from harvesting gains near current levels.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  11:43:29 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Swing Trade model entered short on an OEX break of 498. The stop is 501.75. The initial target is 485. Good luck, everyone. Me, too. Disclosure: Although my vacation will probably require me to exit ahead of the target, I did enter the play.

  Mark Phillips   7/10/200,  11:43:08 AM
ABC $69.66 (-1.40) Despite what looked to be a strong breakout over the $70 level last week, shares of ABC topped out just over $73 on Tuesday and have been falling sharply ever since. Today's break back under the $70 breakout level on volume that continues to look heavy is not a good sign and we can see the 20-dma ($69.59) appears to be the only hope for a rebound later today. But with daily Stochastics in full bearish roll, odds of a solid rebound appear slim. And if that rebound did appear, I would view it more as a gift of an exit point, rather than a validation that bullish positions here actually make sense. To me, the stock has demostrated today that last week's breakout was a bull trap.

  Mark Phillips   7/10/200,  11:42:59 AM
There certainly hasn't been any sign of strength in this session yet, as each attempted lift following the gap down open has met with nothing but selling pressure. That view is confirmed by the advance-decline volume numbers I monitor, with the ADVDECV indicators on both the NYSE and NASDAQ starting in the red and heading steadily lower throughout the session. Both measures are currently hitting new lows for the day, with the NYSe number at -423K and the NASDAQ at -434K.

There are a couple different ways in which I can confirm this weakness, one of which is to look at the sector list. With the exception of the XAU, all sectors are in the red this morning, with the Oil services sector (OSX.X) currently leading the weakness with a 2.98% loss. My other daily metric is to take a quick glance at the OI Play list, and all I see is red there as well. That's favorable for the bears, but not such cheery news for the bulls, as we have one play that has violated its stop already.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  11:39:33 AM
Pacholder High Yield fund (PHF) $8.54 +0.23% .... has been fining support at $8.50 last 9 sessions. Will distribut a quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share today, that were shareholders of record on June 30th. Based on $0.96 annual dividend estimate, and current $8.54 trade, this would be YIELD of 11.2%.

Mom's going to pick some up next week after I visit with her and dad and rebalance their mutual fund holdings. Retirement accounts that find some cash build on profits taken and rebalancing of your own portfolios may set asside a little cash for some junk bonds.

Note: PHF showed a Net Asset Value (NAV) of $7.45 on June 26, 2003.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  11:35:38 AM
That five-minute regression channel that has been containing OEX prices since the fast drop this morning sure does look like a bull flag, but there's one very big problem--it came at the end of a steep drop and not at the end of a steep climb. Bull flags typically form at the top of a steep climb, and represent a period of controlled accumulation. Prices trade in a tight range of lower highs and lower lows. This couldn't properly be classified a bull flag then, and probably just represents what it appears to represent--lower prices in the making. The controlled nature of the selling, as represented by this tight-ranged regression channel, makes me wary, though, and glad for the parameters set earlier for an entry into a short swing trade. This is a market that doesn't want to go down, it appears.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  11:34:07 AM
The most recent put to call reading, release a minute ago, came in at .62 for the past half hour. QQV is down .06, VXN +.60, and VIX +.44. Buying in treasuries has slowed considerably, with FVX -1.6 bps, TNX -0.6 and TYX +1.7 bps.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  11:29:08 AM
30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) turning green here and seeing some selling come into the long-bond. Up 1 basis point to 4.721%.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  11:27:02 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  11:18:28 AM
As of a few moments ago, total volume was 425 million on the NYSE and 615 million on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios were a bearish .36 for the NYSE and .46 for the Nasdaq. Down volume was 6.2 times up volume on the NYSE and 3.9 times up volume on the Nasdaq.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  11:15:08 AM
The put to call ratio dropped for the last half hour to .58.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  11:11:02 AM
Swing Trade Signals
This last bounce came as the OEX dipped below the 30-minute 100-pma and touched the 130-pma before springing up again to test the 60-minute 100-pma again, from the bottom this time. This action near the 60-minute 100-pma and those 30-minute averages makes me feel better about the 498 potential short entry. These levels have appeared to have been support, so a break of these levels of support should be significant.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  10:55:27 AM
The OEX daily RSI (9) is now at its ascending trendline. Daily CCI has moved below signal. Volume patterns show decliners now number more than twice the advancers.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:48:59 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,055 -1.1% ... get downside alert set at MONTHLY Pivot of 9,063 here. Now testing lower end of upward trending regression. Let's see if this gets any bond market reaction.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:47:37 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down just 3.8 basis points at 3.668%. This has YIELD moving right back up to "neckline" and to me, doesn't signal too much defense from market at this point.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:42:55 AM
Natural Gas Inventories Energy Information Administation reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose 111 bcf to 1773 bcf. I had read estimates of 80 bcf build, which would have today's data being viewed as negative for price as inventory rises greater than expected.

I'm 30-minue delayed on my q-charts futures (I don't trade the futures market) with August Natural Gas futures (ng03q) down $0.03 at $5.48. EIA report came out at 10:30 AM EST.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  10:37:55 AM
GE has been holding on valiantly in positive territory, but another 3 cents and that will change.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  10:35:21 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX keeps pausing at the site of its 60-minute 100-pma, at 499.35 currently, with the OEX at 499.48 as I type. The potential for a pause (and bounce?) here or at the 30-minute intersecting 100 and 130-pma's at 498.76 and 498.27 was the reason behind the 498 trigger for a short position. Volume patterns continue to worsen, so the short entry still looks possible at this time.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  10:34:52 AM
Another .59 put to call ratio for the past half hour. They're paying more, too, with the QQV +.17, VXN +.78 and VIX +.69.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:24:14 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,082.82 -0.8% .... session low has been 9,067.07, which is just above the MONTHLY pivot of 9,063.20 and upward regression channel base. Today's trade at 9,100 is 3-box reversal on PnF chart and how has the pattern of lower high and lower low forming. Gut feel here is we start to look for a "triangle" pattern to form. Link

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  10:20:53 AM
Volume patterns remain very weak, with decliners still outnumbering advancers by 2:1. Down volume is 4.7 times up volume on the NYSE and 3.4 times up volume on the Nasdaq. The trouble is that volume levels are so weak--160 million on the NYSE and 304 million on the Nasdaq--that one has to question whether the levels can be trusted. Are participants waiting until certain levels hold or are violated before jumping in one direction or another? Perhaps most telling is the much lower number of new highs--153--but new lows aren't picking up, either.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:17:25 AM
Sector weakness across the board ... Not one sector in positive territory. Internet (INX.X) 146.97 -3.7%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) 116.72 -2.35% and Semiconductor (SOX.X) 393.51 -2.08% lead declines.

Relative strength seen in HMO Index (HMO.X) 743 -0.24%, S&P Banks (BIX.X) 308 -0.4%.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:11:02 AM
Limited Brands (LTD) $16.13 +0.68% .... said same store sales rose 5% in June as a semi-annual clearance sale drove customers into its Victoria's Secret lingerie stores. Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:07:19 AM
Wal-Mart (WMT) $55.64 -0.21% ... said June same store sales rose 2.7%, which was at the lower end of its 2%-4% guidance range.Link

Looking forward, WMT said it expects July same-store sales to be at the high end of a 2%-4% range, but inventory levels remained higher than expected after June.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  10:05:50 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
The pattern on the five-minute OEX charts looks like a classic "b" distribution pattern. Volume patterns are negative. The volatility indices are rising. The daily RSI is now curling down to its rising trendline, on the brink of violating that trendline. So far, a short entry appears to be in the works.

Enter short on a break of 498 (30-minute intersecting 100 and 130-pma's and just below 499 60-minute 100-pma). Set a stop at 501.75, a point above the 21-dma and the rising trendline, and a little above the most recent five-minute high and the midpoint of today's first five-minute candle. Target 485. The greatest risk to this play may be the recent bullish sentiment, opex operations, and the risk that will occur when the Dow tests 9000.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  10:05:33 AM
Put to call ratio .59, equity pcr .44. Nothing but dip buyers on this drop- great news for bears.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  10:03:44 AM
Autozone (AZO) $76.49 -2.28% .... stock weak again today after Tuesday's double top buy signal at $79. I was looking for some relative strength out of AZO after pullback from May's $88 level, but haven't gotten it in first two days. Stop firm at $73, which if traded would be spread-triple bottom sell signal and break of trend, but viewed as strong support as $74 was also past spread-triple top buy signal in April. Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  9:58:50 AM
Micron Technology (MU) $14.00 -2.77% .... CNBC reported that JP Morgan was the trader that executed the 24.7 million share sale of MU stock for TXN. Bought it at $24.04 and sold it for $24.09. Not a bad $1.2 million profit for a day's work for JPM.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  9:57:05 AM
The fed announces 8B in overnight repos replacing 10.25B expiring. There was also a 1B drain against the 28 day repo, for a total of 3.25B drained today.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  9:54:04 AM
The earliest volume patterns showed decliners more than twice the number of advancers, but early volume patterns can be distorted.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  9:50:07 AM
So far just the standard 28 day 5B repo rollover. There's 1.75B in overnights, 3.75B in 2 days, and 4.75B in 10 days to be refunded. Awaiting the announcement(s).

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  9:49:17 AM
We have another try at moving above and maintaining levels above the 50% retracement of the first five-minute OEX range.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  9:43:19 AM
Here's our first OEX bounce, a little earlier than the usual 9:50 bounce. It looks as if it's going to test that 501.46 level, giving us good insight into the strength or weakness of the index.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  9:41:13 AM
August gold has dipped below 343 but is currently above, hanging on to that support level. HUI is down .17 currently, XAU -.08.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  9:40:37 AM
Micron Technology (MU) $14.01 -2.7% .... Upgraded by UBS to "buy" from "neutral" saying 1) there's a high probability that strong pricing will hold for 2nd-half of 2003, 2) good probability for better supply/demand dynamics in 2nd-half of 2003 and much of 2004, and 3) potential margin and earnings upside from the ramp of more efficient 110nm process technology. Raises target to $18 from $12.

In a separate release, Texas Instruments (TXN) $19.05 -2.3% said it sold 24.7 million shares of its MU stake.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  9:38:51 AM
Oxford Health (OHP) $44.13 +0.86% .... strong out of the gate. Trade at $44 gets stock back into column of X. Bulls look good here and can raise PnF stop from $26 to $40. Link

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  9:36:07 AM
The midpoint of the OEX first five-minute candle occurs at 501.46. Bulls want to push the OEX above that key number and maintain that level. Bears want the opposite.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  9:34:47 AM
So far, the drop isn't as fierce as I expected it to be. Let's see if it gains traction.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  9:26:07 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Beginning today, the Swing Trade model will be up and running again, but I first want to explain my preferred trading style. First, I will be basing signals on the OEX since I'm most familiar with that index. My preferred style is to hold trades between two and five days, capturing movements predicted by the daily charts. Intraday charts will also be used to help optimize the entries and exits. I want as many factors as possible working in the direction of the trade, so official trade signals will probably not be frequent and we will most certainly miss some great trades because risk/reward factors did not seem to favor the trade. Because these trades will ideally last several days and capture movements predicted by the daily and not intraday charts, it's going to be possible and even likely that daytraders could find trades in the opposite direction of ours and be profitable while a swing trade is ongoing. While hourly charts oscillators will likely be moving the direction of our trade at the time the signal is issued, they're likely to change back and forth several times over the course of the trade.

Since these swing trades will be set up based on what's occurring on the daily chart, there will usually be plenty of time to explain my reasons behind a trade signal so that you can evaluate the reasoning and determine whether you agree. I urge you to avoid any trade if the reasoning does not seem to fit your belief about market direction. Swing trades based on movements predicted by the daily chart will sometimes require wide stops, so be sure you're comfortable with the risk you're assuming. The reasoning behind my trades will usually include information about chart formations, moving averages, oscillator evidence, and volume patterns. I'll let you know about the risks as I see them and I'll try to walk you through the trade as it progresses.

Here's what I'm watching today: Link I can see two possible trades: a put play based on a violation of the rising trendline, the 21-pma, and the RSI rising trendline; or a long play based on a bounce from those trendlines and that average. I suspect the put play is the most likely, but it's dangerous to anticipate chart signals. If possible I want to let early volatility settle down and the initial 9:50 reversal occur to help us establish the strength or weakness of the market. I would like to have time to see how volume patterns are shaping up.

If the Swing Trade enters a put play, I will be looking for a move back down to the 25% rally retracement level, at 485. Because of the bullish tenor of the markets of late, I will be setting a stop at 503, just above the 502.75 support zone over the last few days. I have not decided if I will initiate the put play at a break of 500 or will wait until a break of 498, the site of the intersecting 30-minute 100 and 130-pma's. If an entry is made at a break of 500, your risk is that the OEX could bounce from 498.

If there's instead a bounce from the 21-pma and we enter long, I'll be setting the stop somewhere between 496 and 498, depending on the location from which the bounce occurs, but will be targeting a move to 512, at which point the OEX will challenge recent highs and the rising midline of its regression channel.

I will be leaving for a week's vacation beginning next Wednesday, so it's possible that I would not be able to follow a trade entered today to its conclusion. I will let you know how I think the trade should unfold before I leave, but I want to disclose that I will probably not be entering a trade myself based on the signals I see because I don't want to leave an open position working in my account while I'm attending my brother's wedding. Also, with next week being opex week, I strongly suggest that you consider August rather than July options.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  9:20:44 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  8:36:57 AM
Bonds are being bought aggressively, FVX -6.7 bps, TNX -6.2 and TYX -4.2. Futures hit new session lows on the 8:30 selloff, but I suspect that many traders are awaiting the apparently inevitable post-bad news ramp job we've seen recently. So far, it hasn't come.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  8:32:03 AM
Initial claims 439,000

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  8:31:36 AM
U.S. 4 week average jobless claims up 1,000 to 426,750

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  8:30:54 AM


  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  8:27:41 AM
Futures are trading their session lows as we await the weekly employment data, import and export prices.

  Jeff Bailey   7/10/200,  8:21:57 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 3.649% .... opens down 5.7 basis points, right at our 61.8% "head/shoulder" retracement and below the neckline. (see 07/09 21:40:34)

  Jonathan Levinson   7/10/200,  7:56:28 AM
The US Dollar Index has fought it's way up to 95.77, and gold has dropped to 343, now hanging onto support by its fingernails. The futures are down, ES -4.50 to 996.50 and NQ -12 to 1285.

  Linda Piazza   7/10/200,  7:26:10 AM
Good morning. Investors keep trying to drive the Nikkei over 10,000, but they just can't keep the Nikkei at that level through a close. By the midday break, the Nikkei had moved back over 10,000. The gains continued after the break with the Nikkei reaching as high as 10,070, but once again the Nikkei fell from that level, closing down 35.33 points or 0.35%, at 9955.62. As the Nikkei was climbing up into the midday break, so were bonds, apparently as a flight to safety after investors speculated that the recent phenomenal gains in the Nikkei could not continue at their current rate. Financials lost ground.

The after-hours performance of YHOO may have worried some investors, as techs and especially Internet-related techs led the declines, but also worrisome were economic developments in Singapore and South Korea. Singapore's GDP declined 4.3% year-over-year. Singapore's central bank took steps to ease monetary policy as a result. South Korea's central bank also took a surprising step today. Although many had hoped that the South Korean government would cut interest rates, apparently the easing wasn't widely expected by economists, but the central bank did cut. While cutting interest rates, the government also trimmed its growth forecast for the South Korean economy to 3.1 percent from the former forecast of 4.1 percent. The South Korean economy contracted for the second quarter in a row, meeting the technical considerations for a recession.

Protests over the hated anti-subversion bill continued in Hong Kong. In Taiwan, the parliament passed a bill that will allow companies to securitize real estate and is expected to approve a bank rescue fund, according to a marketwatch.com article. Despite these developments in Taiwan, the Taiwan Weighted fell along with many other Asian bourses, plunging 1.43%. South Korea's Kospi fell 0.71% and Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.22%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.44%.

Headlines concerning European development contain similar surprising developments. In its first meeting headed by the new Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, the Bank of England cut interest rates a quarter percentage point. The central bank mentioned a weak global economy and the strength of the pound against the dollar as reasons for the rate cut. The Bank of England did not release a new forecast for the economy's growth, but is expected to do so next month. However, the EU announced that Q2 and Q3 may see zero-to-0.4% growth in the Eurozone economies, pointing to a possible stagnation in those economies. Since EU President Wim Duisenberg said last week that the ECB had done its part in easing economic policy, the ECB is not expected to further reduce rates at its next meeting.

Amidst these developments, most European bourses trade down. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades down 23 points or 0.57%, to 4031.70. The CAC 40 trades down 31.94 points or 1.02%, to 3107.99; and the DAX trades down 44.35 points or 1.33%, to 3278.08.

  Jim Brown   7/10/200,  2:18:18 AM
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