Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  3:51:54 PM
For reference, the European markets I usually cover closed as follows: The FTSE 100 closed up 29.30 points or 0.73%, at 4058.10. The CAC 40 closed up 39.99 points or 1.29%, at 3138.27. The DAX closed up 56.67 point or 1.73%, at 3326.51, just near that 3325 S/R zone. Both European and U.S. markets proved resistant to the Nikkei's swoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  3:50:10 PM
QQQ $31.89 +0.94% .... trying to make a little run late and right back near DAILY R1 of $31.95. Does it on 5-minue volume spike of 1.6 million shares.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  3:47:41 PM
03:00 PM NH/NL Internals

Strong today....

NYSE shows new highs of 155 and 1 new low (daily ratio 99.4%, 10-day 97.0%)

NASDAQ has 227 new highs and 4 new lows. (daily ratio 98.3%, 10-day 96.2%)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  3:39:28 PM
Human Genome (HGSI) $13.56 (unch) .... I'm hoping stock stays right here today, but on my list for short/put candidate Monday. Today's trades is "inside day" and comes on rally back to where I had profiled a bullish trader's stop of $14.00, which was triggered on 06/18/03 decline. I said I was going to look for a short entry if the stock ever rebounded back and I like this type of trade setup for bearish play on PnF chart Link and bar chart Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  3:39:10 PM
From noon until the present time, the 30-minute 5(3)3 stochastics cycled all the way from overbought to oversold levels and are turning up again. The 21(3)3's turned down from overbought territory, but have now made a bullish kiss and turned back up. MACD isn't so sure about direction, flattening. RSI kicked up, but looks as if it might try to flatten, too. On the 60-minute charts, the -DI is on the verge of crossing +DI, a possible sell signal, but ADX level is in the cellar at 16.60. There's no trend there--but we didn't need the ADX to tell us that, did we? That low number tells us we can trust the oscillators, but I'm not so sure. Sixty-minute oscillators have turned down, but the stochs have done it at that shallow angle you've heard me mention other times. When I see stochs at that angle, I know that they're not yet committed, even if they are generally sloping down. They can be turned right back up again. Daily oscillators show downside is more likely than upside, but they're also showing some similar ambiguity and that daily RSI hasn't hinged back down again. All the evidence taken together makes me think . . . I don't know. Downside seems more likely next week, but the damage may be limited and there may be a move up Monday morning first. That's just a guess. If the indicators can't get their act together, I can't make a decent stab at deciphering them.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  3:38:53 PM
Put to call ratio down to 1.01, equity pcr .92 and index pcr 1.37.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  3:28:39 PM
It's possible to draw several different variations of the ascending channel that's been containing OEX prices. In one, the OEX moved below the channel yesterday and is piercing it again today. In another, the shadow of yesterday's candle pierced it but the body did closed at the lower support line. In each, the OEX trades back within the channel today. Let's see what happens at the end of the day, but the OEX also currently trades above the 21-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  3:13:44 PM
On the OEX five-minute chart, the OEX moved down to the linked averages and then bounced. Currently, the OEX is back above its 21-dma at 500.12. The daily RSI is still hinged up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  3:06:12 PM
The put to call ratio has dropped to 1.04. VIX is up .1, VXN down .68 and QQV down .73. A very strange day in the options market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  2:57:46 PM
I'm checking charts of individual stocks. A week ago when I was checking charts, everything looked bullish, and bullish in a similar way. Either stocks were in a bull flag or had just broken out of a bull flag or else had just broken above horizontal support. It seemed as if I was looking at the same two charts over and over. Today, I'm seeing more bearish than bullish candidates along with a liberal sprinkling of charts showing stocks trading in more ambiguous patterns. Is this indicative of a sea change, do you think?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  2:53:56 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We're getting the expected test of those grouped moving averages, but it didn't happen soon enough. I urged caution even for aggressive traders considering a trade on a break below OEX 499.25, but I now believe that the risks are escalating as the day progresses. I would not now suggest such a trade even for aggressive traders because of the risk that the break would be shortly following by an end-of-day short-covering rally. Volume patterns are not quite as strong as they were, but certainly strong enough to make that a possibility. In fact, if the OEX does not soon break through those averages, it almost seems ordained.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  2:53:42 PM
QQQ $31.72 +0.44% .... holds DAILY pivot of $31.64 on 5-minute bar closing basis and looks to rebound here. Would monitor now at DAILY 38.2% retracement of $31.80 for resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  2:44:15 PM
The OEX is now below its 21-dma and its 30-minute 100-pma, but is not yet below the 30-minute 130-pma. The daily RSI still retains its slight upward hinge, but a strong downdraft this afternoon could change that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  2:42:57 PM
QQQ $31.63 +0.06% ... something's "up" or should I say "down".... QQQ and indexes "should not" have come back through their daily pivots after this morning breaks higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  2:35:48 PM
Sell Program Premium Alert SPX = 997.24, OEX = 501, INDU = 9,098, NDX = 1,276, QQQ = $31.75

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  2:35:32 PM
QQQ $31.70 +0.31% .... afternoon lows here and getting very close to DAILY Pivot of $31.64, where QQQ opened today's trade.

A Jonathan just noted (14:33:25) Treasuries finding buying and session highs on price.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  2:32:27 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 388.77 -0.39% ... session lows here, but fractional loss. Not sure if "SARS" news (see 14:25:16) out of Texas in contributor, but see notable divergence in semi-equipment with KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) $47.60 -2% and Teradyne (NYSE:TER) $18.53 -2.37% as percentage losers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  2:31:52 PM
We OEX traders should always correlate our index trades with the other indices. First, we had the failure of the SPX to sustain levels above 1000. Now we're watching a test of Dow 9100. (Jonathan does such a great job covering the techs that we can watch for his comments concerning the tech-related indices.) I'm rather surprised that all the bullish sentiment, as reflected by the volume patterns, wasn't able to push the OEX above 504, as 506-508 appeared to be logical targets. Maybe some other traders are surprised, too, that the indices couldn't move higher. I still don't rule out a last-minute push upward this afternoon, but I think that may be dependent on what happens near OEX 499-500 this afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  2:25:16 PM
SciClone Pharmaceuticals (SCLN) $9.68 +5.2% ... jumps to session highs in last 10-minutes after MSNBC reports that 9 people connected to the military have been quarantined in Texas after some reported respiratory problems similar to SARS.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  2:13:03 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX test 504 again this afternoon or to see it test those linked moving averages near 499-500. I don't expect the OEX to fall through those moving averages as I think there's a strong push to end the week with the indices up on the week. However, if the OEX should fall below 499.25-499.75 relatively soon, daytrading bears with high risk tolerances and quick trigger fingers could consider a short/put play, as I believe that would signal a change in sentiment. I'm not going to make the signal official, however, as volume patterns remain far too strong and daily RSI still retains its new upward hinge. Anyone entering should be aware of the possibility for another short-covering rally at the end of the day. This is a high-risk play in my consideration, with potential reward this afternoon only down to yesterday's low near 494.50.

What if the OEX hits those moving averages and bounces back up? That's more difficult, with hourly oscillators now in territory indicating overbought conditions and with overhead resistance already tested today and holding back further advances. Those hourly oscillators are setting up to show bearish divergence if the patterns continue to form as they appear to be doing now. Volume patterns favor this play as does today's hinging-up daily RSI, but it just feels as if any potential gains would be even more limited.

Either of these should be daytrades only, so anyone considering an entry should be prepared to bail by the end of the day, winning or losing.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  2:08:18 PM
The put to call ratio is down to 1.1.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  1:53:30 PM
5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) have seen some more mounted buying in this shorter-dated Treasury, with YIELD lows here, now down 2.4 basis to 2.502%. If anything, this may hint of some equity traders moving out for the weekend and parking cash for the weekend in the shorter-dated bond.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  1:50:49 PM
QQQ $31.87 +0.82% ... per Index Trader Wrap bullish profile from WEEKLY R1 of $31.37-$31.44, I'm seeing enough selling today at DAILY R1 of $31.95 to have me raising a stop to MINIMUM break-even here.

Will also jot down some notes as to QQQ resistance of $31.95 intra-day and SPX resistance back at WEEKLY R1 of 999.77 and its DAILY R1 of 999.40.

If you're a trader that doesn't like to hold a bullish trade over weekend, I'd be looking for the exits at current levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  1:50:17 PM
Here's the latest on the volume patterns: adv/dec ratios are 2.1 for the NYSE and 1.6 for the Nasdaq. Up volume is 2.5 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.5 times down volume on the Nasdaq. The numbers aren't as exuberant as they were earlier, but they're still fairly strong. Now, I wonder why those strong numbers aren't resulting in an SPX over 1000? As others have mentioned, though, volume is light, at 712 million for the NYSE and 959 million for the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  1:41:44 PM
The push looks to be to the upside. Now let's see if resistance holds.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  1:37:10 PM
Remember that we're getting close to the 1:45 push (give or take 10 minutes).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  1:29:54 PM
Buying picking up slightly in treasuries, with FVX -1.2 bps, TNX +.2 and TYX +.2 bps. QQV -.91, VXN -.61 and VIX -.32, as the put to call ratio stays high, with next week's option expiration week looming.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  1:17:49 PM
There's a potential H&S setup on the five-minute chart, although it's way too early to start trading on that possibility. As yet, there's only a left shoulder and a head beginning to round over. I mention the possibility only because there's a potential for the OEX to hit the neckline somewhere between 500.70-501.20 and bounce back to form a right shoulder. That potential neckline is just above the grouped moving averages that the OEX pushed through earlier today, so it would make sense from that perspective, too, for the OEX to find support, however momentarily, at that point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  1:14:42 PM
Altria (MO) $42.15 -2.4% ... turning defensive quickly and losing Wednesday's low. If long the calls or stock, look to straddle with September $40 puts (MOUH) $2.15 here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  1:08:51 PM
Put to call ratio drops to 1.17.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  1:07:54 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Those five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics finally headed down out of overbought territory, the first time they've declined this far all day. That's only a minute sign of weakness, but I do note the 60-minute oscillators beginning to hinge just the slightest bit. Volume patterns are still too strong for me to feel comfortable with a short/put at this level even though it's tempting with the SPX not yet maintaining 1000. I'm just watching, but I would really have to have an "all ducks in a row" kind of signal before I would feel comfortable initiating a Swing Trade Friday afternoon on the Friday before opex week, and that's not happening. Now if the VIX would dip further, below 20 and then spring up . . .

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  1:01:26 PM
Adv/dec ratios are now 2.2 for the NYSE and 1.71 for the Nasdaq. They're still holding relatively steady. Up volume is now 2.7 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.2 times down volume for the Nasdaq. As of a few minutes ago, total volume was 617 million for the NYSE and 832 million for the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  12:57:30 PM
I just found another old 60-minute OEX chart tucked away behind some others. On this chart, I had started a trendline off a H&S that set up in March, confirming with a fall through the neckline on March 27. The H&S came within 3 or 4 points of fulfilling its downside target before the OEX headed up again. That's not the important observation, however. Guess where the extended neckline from that March H&S now crosses? You guess it: smack dab at today's high. Guess I'll have to keep this chart, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  12:54:48 PM
Volatility indices all red and the put to call ratio is abnormally high. Are the big boys writing/dumping puts today?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  12:49:26 PM
Micrel (MCRL) $10.90 -3.28% Link ... stock weak on rumors circulating that its analog power integrated circuits may be being designed out of Qualcomm's (QCOM) $38.64 +1.2% Link next generation technology.

PnF chart on MCRL a bit suspect if trade at $9.50 is seen. Did hold bullish support trend at $10.00, but vertical count of $6.50 notable with these rumors circulating. Not sure from fundamental how dependent on QCOM MCRL is, but will test the rumor with an alert set at $9.50.

Again.... you never know for certain where these rumors start. True? or disgruntled bears trying to get a pullback to cover into.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  12:46:57 PM
Hmmm. I'm cleaning up my Q-charts house today and found this old OEX daily chart tucked behind some others. Remember the bearish rising wedge we all watched so closely through the early part of the spring rally? This chart had marked two possible boundaries for that rising wedge, a green one (my original one) and a magenta one (suggested by a reader). Link It looks as if both versions of the trendlines have been playing a part in the trading. Perhaps these are similar to the lines that Jim and Jonathan have included on some of their charts. Yesterday's candle shows that prices dipped below that trendline and then rose, with the candle closing right on the trendline. The green trendline looks to be playing an important part, too. That shows me that a drop below the magenta trendline might find support near 491 (the lower green trendline), a level I'd already identified through other means yesterday as possible support. Perhaps I'll keep this chart around a while longer.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  12:38:33 PM
Put to call ratio back up to 1.24.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  12:36:37 PM
Put to call data is tardy.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  12:36:17 PM
Heads and shoulders everywhere. Here's something I'm watching on the OEX 60-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  12:35:40 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 444.30 -0.52% .... slight weakness today with index breadth at 3 up and 7 down. TOL -1.69% Link is loser, while CMH +3.69% Link

Just a comparison of "both ends" gives the look of profit taking at the top (TOL) and perhaps some short-covering or "value hunters" at the bottom (CMH).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  12:30:42 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,133 +1% ... just off session high of 9,146.48, which was 3.52-points away from a 3-box reversal back higher. Link

I'd think a more determined bear looking at 9,150 as a short/put point, with tight stop just above at 9,300.

QQQ $31.88 +0.88% continues to find a seller at DAILY R1 for the third time this session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  12:27:55 PM
Micron Technology (MU) $14.24 +2.59% .... just about to fully fill yesterday's gap lower back to $14.30. Yesterday, I was not typing very well. JP Morgan said they bought the 24.7 million shares of MU from TXN at $14.04 (not $24.04) and sold it for $14.09 (not $24.09).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  12:27:15 PM
Once the OEX moves above 504, the congestion gets denser until 506, but then there's the 508.28 top from Wednesday just ahead of that.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  12:20:45 PM
Current volume patterns show adv/dec ratios at 2.4 for the NYSE and 1.76 for the Nasdaq. Up volume is 3.1 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.55 times up volume on the Nasdaq. These are still strong numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  12:15:27 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 999.06 +1.04% .... just tested WEEKLY R1 of 999.77, and here's is where QQQ $31.89 +0.91% and most likely all indexes at a key juncture in today's trade.

A bit surprising here in that yesterday's 12:00 NH/NL for NASDAQ was 174:4 , and today NASDAQ trades with gains, but NH/NL at 12:00 is 162:3 as if it "lacks" some bullish leadership, with strength at the "tail"

In a way, this gives me an intraday observation that most of action today is short-covering (taking some profits by bears in weaker stocks) but bulls not overly aggressive with stocks near their highs.

Still bullish NH/NL indications, but maybe not as bullish as I would have thought comparing to yesterday.

Conversely.... today's 12:00 NYSE NH/NL is 162:3, and MUCH stronger than yesterday's 12:00 mark of 77:4.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  12:07:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
This has been a frustrating twenty-four hours for me, one when every gut instinct told me to get out of the short/put Swing Trade yesterday afternoon (which would have been right decision) and when every gut instinct told me to go long today (which may also have been right if it had been done soon enough). But you don't want me issuing signals on instinct alone. There's been a feel to the market today that belies everything that the indicators say. Well, it's not just a feeling since it's borne out of an observation of that five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics' behavior, the volume patterns, and other minute indications. However, we've got the SPX just now testing 1000, with the outcome of that test as yet uncertain and with daily OEX oscillators inconclusive but leaning toward the bearish side. Meanwhile, the OEX is smack in the middle of a congestion zone again, with possible resistance layered in about .50 increments all the way up to 508. Trading on gut instinct would have benefited us over the last twenty-four hours, but that's not a lucrative way to trade for the most part, and I still don't see a clear setup either direction. I'd be leaning toward another short/put play if it weren't for that strange underlying feeling and those volume patterns.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  12:05:17 PM
Put to call ratio drops to 1.19, index pcr 1.38 and equity pcr 1.14. This is a "normal" configuration, index pcr higher than equity pcr, but the absolute levels are still quite high.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  12:01:38 PM
Selling remains very light in treasuries, and gold is at its day high at 345. FVX is flat, TNX +1.1 bps and TYX +.9 bps. TRIN.NQ .67, TICK.NQ +201.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  11:50:55 AM
I've been watching the 21(3)3 stochastics on the five-minute OEX chart. All day, it's been trying to turn down only to get turned back up again. That doesn't happen often on a five-minute chart, although it does happen when a trend is strong. However, ADX has been declining on the five-minute chart since about 11, though, so the move should be losing strength. The five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics are attempting another bearish kiss, this time from a slighly lower level. Let's see if the decreasing ADX is telling the truth. (Nope. As I typed the note, price and 21(3)3 stochastics both turned up again.)

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  11:35:32 AM
The put to call ratio is 1.28. I've written before that there may come a day when you will not want to fade the put to call ratio as it zooms higher, same as with the VIX. In a true crash, these indicators should blast off the tops of their charts. But these are very, very low probability events, bearish as I am, and so I continue to interpret high put to call ratios as a bullish, and not bearish, secondary indicator.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  11:33:29 AM
I agree with Jonathan's assessment of the markets today. I could give reasons to justify a long trade in the OEX today--a move above the 21-dma, the strong volume patterns, the resilience in the futures overnight despite the Nikkei's selloff--but I could also give reasons for a short. Daily ADX is not showing a strongly trending market. In fact, it's showing a market whose trend began losing strength in the middle of June, but the OEX sure is acting like a market that wants to continue going up despite daily oscillators that try to roll down. It's acting as if the ADX is still way up near 35, so that no oscillator evidence can be trusted.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  11:28:22 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  11:17:43 AM
The equity pcr is up to 1.20 and the index pcr is 1.0. This an anomalous configuration- I don't believe I've seen readings like this since I began following the intraday pcr. Something's afoot. The configuration continues to look bullish to me, but as I keep repeating, it's a very soft indicator, particularly intraday. Could just be some large put positions being bought in a single issue.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  11:14:48 AM
I'm seeing mixed messages on the charts. The daily oscillators now are inconclusive, with RSI oscillating around its trendline. CCI crossed into the green again, but it's doing it from relatively low levels, not giving a strong signal. MACD is flat. Stochs braid their fast lines and slow lines as they try to determine or follow direction. ADX gave a sell signal yesterday (-DI crossed above +DI), but ADX hasn't picked up at all, indicating that we don't have a strong downtrend yet beginning.

Other evidence shows the OEX breaking to the downside out of what had appeared to be a potential bull flag as the SPX could not break through 1000. The 30-minute chart shows the OEX having tested the underside of its regression channel and then falling back. Still, it's above its grouped MA's near 500, and those volume patterns, although less strong than earlier, are still far too positive for my liking if I wanted to consider another short/put position.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  11:14:22 AM
Latest total pcr is up to 1.16.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:55:34 AM
Microsoft (MSFT) $27.21 +1.15% .... QQQ trader makes notes on 5-minute chart of similarity, with 200-pd SMA providing near-term resistance in MSFT $27.25 and QQQ $31.90.

QQQ bull would like to see MSFT get above for QQQ target of $32.15 to have a shot.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  10:54:49 AM
So far, volume patterns continue to be strong. The OEX currently moves to the bottom of its potential bull flag forming off the recent high. If it's a bull flag, the OEX should soon move up toward the top of the flag again. I'm watching SPX 1000, too, as a gauge for the strength or weakness of the markets.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:51:14 AM
Dow Breadth shows 29 up and 1 down (KO $43.91 -0.22%) .... MCD +2.47%, HD +2.7%, INTC +2.13%, C +1.74%, JPM +1.77%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  10:50:18 AM
The OEX five-minute chart shows another potential bull flag setting up just above 502.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  10:43:43 AM
For those who follow the CBOE put to call ratio, the equity put to call ratio is .99 and the index pcr 1.03 for a net reading of 1.0. This "soft", "secondary", fluffy indicator is one I like to follow. It's giving one of its rare buy signals now. I usually fade the equity pcr and follow the index pcr. When the index pcr lowers to levels at or below 1.0 and the equity pcr is higher than or close to the index pcr, it tells me that the smaller traders are getting way bearish, and the larger index traders are relatively bullish (the index pcr is almost always above 1). So, this secondary indicator, on which I do NOT trade alone, is telling bears to be careful and bulls to hang on. I repeat, it's a secondary indicator- don't follow it on its own, particularly if it conflicts with the other indicators you follow. For instance, ES is at strong resistance- I personally would not be going long here for that reason.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  10:43:17 AM
As of a few minutes ago, total volume was a light 231 million on the NYSE and 359 million on the Nasdaq. Adv/dec ratios were 2 for the NYSE and 1.76 for the Nasdaq. Up volume was 2.4 times down volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. These numbers give us some benchmarks against which to measure volume patterns during the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:40:00 AM
QQQ $31.87 +0.85% .... off its high of $31.99 after finding some sellers waiting at DAILY R1 of $31.95 (see 10:02:12 post).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  10:39:58 AM
The OEX has risen now to test the bottom of the regression channel that captured its movements the early part of this week. If it should be successful in rising above this level, it will then be right back in that congestion zone. Right back in the DMZ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:37:59 AM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 54.41 -1.35% Link ... only sector down more than 1%. Downgrade on Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) $17.12 -5.04% Link by UBS to "reduce" from "neutral" with target of $13 saying valuations are getting stretched despite the fact that discounters continue to gain market share at an aggressive rate.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  10:36:13 AM
The put to call ratio has climbed to 1.0. QQV +.1, VXN -.15, VIX -.41. Yields are slightly positive, TRIN.NQ .73, TICK.NQ +445. Dangerous for bulls and bears alike at current levels.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  10:33:33 AM
Swing Trade Signals
With daily oscillators still rolling and with the possibility that the OEX is just now bumping up against the underside of the daily regression channel, depending on how it's drawn, I don't see good risk/reward in entering a long Swing Trade position today. With volume patterns strongly positive, I don't see good risk/reward for re-entering our short/put position, either. I'll be monitoring the markets to see if anything changes during the day, but the setup would have to be spectacular to convince me to enter a signal on the Friday before opex week. I hope many of you took the opportunity to exit yesterday when I recommended a consideration of a breakeven stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:31:32 AM
HMO Index (HMO.X) 748 +1.17% ... showed some relative strength yesterday during broader market weakness. Back to test its all-time highs here.

Oxford Health (OHP) $43.90 +0.64% ... showed early bullishness yesterday at $44.00, getting PnF chart back into column of X, but faded with broad market weaknes. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  10:27:29 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Our 501.75 stop was just triggered.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:25:56 AM
Buy program premium alert .... INDU = 9,108, SPX = 996.45, OEX = 501.70, NDX = 1,281, QQQ = $31.82

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:21:43 AM
NetScreen (NSCN) $26.75 -1.83% ... lower after Juniper Networks (JNPR) $13.97 -1.06% earning's report.

Pacific Growth saying JNPR's 10% sequential decline is Asia sales reflects a slow market in Asia networking products for June quarter, yet the company's (JNPR) 16% growth in N. America reflected pick up in demand for networking gear. Pacific Growth therefor thinks that company's such as NSCN, which have high Asia exposure and low N. American exposure, may be challenged from geographic strategy.

This may be worthy of note for a NSCN bull as stock has achieved its $26.50 bullish vertical count (column of X from $16 to $19). Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  10:17:51 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We have a pause rather than a pullback while the OEX finds support on its grouped MA's (21-dma, 30-minute 100 and 130-pma's). What little pullback that is occurring appears to be taking the form of a possible bull flag on the five-minute chart. Meanwhile, volume patterns are all strongly positive. Something needs to change quickly if our Swing Trade is going to survive.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:14:41 AM
TiVo (TIVO) $12.30 +4.06% .... higher on trader talk that Comcast (CMCSK) $30.60 +0.26% may be interested in the company.

This may be coming out of media conference in Sun Valley Idaho.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:07:58 AM
World Trade Organization rules that U.S. terrifs placed on steel imports illegal.

Nucor (NYSE:NUE) $48.34 -0.32% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  10:06:15 AM
Put to call ratio .86, equity pcr .88 and index pcr .80.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  10:02:15 AM
My news ticker is reporting that treasuries are selling despite the PPI data. They should look at the open market ops from the Fed- that would show the large drain sparking selling in treasuries.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  10:02:12 AM
QQQ .... $31.82 +0.72% here .... here's my intra-day chart of QQQ with DAILY pivot retracement (gold/brown) overlaid. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  9:59:53 AM
The markets are entering their first reversal period. So far, there hasn't been much of a reversal. The OEX is above several key averages now and bears want to see the reversal carry it back below them. Bulls want to see current levels maintained, especially the 500 level with the 21-dma just above that level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  9:56:07 AM
6.25B drain from Al Green with a weekend repo of 1.75B just announced.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  9:52:10 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Here it comes . . . the test of our stop. Will it hold? I'm not sure. I hope some of you took yesterday's opportunity exit at breakeven or ahead.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  9:51:43 AM
QQQ $31.78 +0.5% .... Q's "gapped" higher to open $31.65, which is penny above today's DAILY pivot of $31.64. 15-minutes after opening high of $31.77, did come back to test $31.65 open, found support, and making session high here. Looking for some short-cover build here and if QQQ can clear the $32.00, then look for the fill of yesterday's gap down from $32 to $32.15 gap fill as area is void of much supply.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  9:47:56 AM
Lackluster open ... bulk of sectors in the green, but fractional gains seen. Biotech (BTK.X) 464.73 +0.77% sector gainer early, with Disk Drive (DDX.X) 115.23 -1.06% early weakness.

Treasuries all show relatively unchanged trade, and have been either side of +/- in early going.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  9:47:03 AM
Now the OEX trades close to the 21-dma, overhead at 500.06 now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  9:43:05 AM
Pivot Analysis Matrix .... several subscribers have noted some "disparity" in various index highs yesterday. I saw this too when preparing the daily matrix, but multiple sources were also quoting Wednesday's highs as the "open" and high for yesterday's trade, so I used those data.

I'm also seeing some "bad data" this morning. My q-charts tick shows SPX at 991.71 (correct), but shows -10.53 points (-1.05%) which is incorrect.

SPX closed 988.70 yesterday, so should be higher by 3 points.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  9:36:57 AM
The 50% retracement of the first OEX five-minute candle lies at 498.29. Bears--including those of us in the open Swing Trade--want to see the OEX driven back below that level at the first retest that usually arrives in about ten minutes, and we want to see it done before the OEX breaches our 501.75 stop. Bulls want to see that 498.29 level maintained on any pullback.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  9:33:12 AM
The OEX rises to test the grouped 30-minute 100 and 130-pma's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  9:25:38 AM
Trade Balance ... here a Link to the May Trade report.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  9:25:02 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The futures reacted mildly to the Nikkei's sell-off last night, perhaps signaling more resilience than we would like to see with the Swing Trade model in an open short/put position. We will open the day with the OEX 30-minute and 60-minute oscillators also showing bullish tendencies as the OEX has been rising to test yesterday's broken support. It's not unusual for a market to rise and test broken support, although we always hope it doesn't happen when we entered a short/put position. Overhead resistance lies clustered between 498 and 500.16, the site of the 21-dma, and we hope those layers of resistance halt further climbs. Our stop remains 501.75, but traders should also examine the charts for themselves to decide on alternate stops that fit their parameters.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  9:23:16 AM
10-year Treasury YIELD ($TNX.X) seeing fractional selling, higher by 1.8 basis points to 3.695%. Did see some early buying with YIELD falling to 3.658%, but sellers came in after trade report was released.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  9:21:51 AM
Al Green has a hefty 8B in expiring overnight repos with which to deal today. We await the 10AM announcement from the Fed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  9:14:39 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  8:44:06 AM
June wholesale prices rise 0.5 pct

U.S. May trade gap widens 0.5% to $41.8 billion

Bonds are being lightly bought, FVX -1.5 bps, TNX -1 and TYX -.6 bps. Futures are holding up well, down 1 on ES and -1.50 on NQ.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/11/200,  8:22:22 AM
Pivot Matrix for today posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/11/200,  8:09:24 AM
The US Dollar Index is up to 95.71. August gold is down to 344, -.60. ES is down .25 to 988.50, NQ is lower by 2 to 1270.50, YM +9 to 9024.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/11/200,  7:32:13 AM
Good morning. When the Nikkei pulls back, it gets serious. By the midday break, the Nikkei had fallen more than 300 points, doing most of the day's damage. In the afternoon session, the Nikkei made only tepid attempts at a bounce before settling to the low of the day and then climbing slightly into the close. The Nikkei closed down 320.27 points or 3.22%, at 9635.35. Investors in Japanese stocks looked to U.S. economic numbers--yesterday's jobless numbers and retail sales figures--and saw reasons to take profits after the Nikkei's strong rally. With many tech stocks set to report earnings in the next several weeks, many fear that those earnings will disappoint. Techs, autos, and banks were weak, but so were most stocks in the broad-based decline.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. One day after South Korea's central bank lowered rates, the Kospi gained 0.52%. Amid further political turmoil over the proposed anti-subversion bill, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.72%. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.80%, but Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.65%.

Most European bourses trade positive, but are off their highs, dipping further beneath those highs after GE's earnings announcement was released a few minutes ago. May's French industrial production disappointed, falling 1.4% from April's, far more than the projected 0.2% drop. There perhaps seems to be a battle of wills shaping up in the Eurozone, with ECB President Wim Duisenberg having made it clear last week that the ECB had done its part in easing monetary policy and that individual governments should do theirs, and with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder today suggesting that the ECB should weaken the euro. The euro fell after his remarks were released, but his spokesperson said the remarks were taken out of context.

Gainers in European trading included some insurers who might benefit from proposed U.S. legislation to create a fund to compensate asbestosis sufferers but limit the liability of the insurance companies. That legislation gained the approval of a U.S. Senate panel yesterday. As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was up 10.70 points or 0.27%, to 4039.50. The CAC 40 was up 6.47 points or 0.21%, to 3104.75; and the DAX traded up 8.96 points or 0.27%, to 3278.80.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/10/200,  1:27:46 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives