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  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  8:46:25 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow posted at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  7:26:05 PM
Scientific Atlanta (SFC) $25.00 -3.25% ..... higher at $27.20

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  4:32:30 PM
PMC-Sierra (PMCS) $12.01 -10.175 .... lower at $11.83

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  4:29:44 PM
Scientific Atlanta (SFA) $25.00 -3.25% ... halted after big upside EPS

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  4:26:29 PM
Avid Technology (AVID) $38.20 -4.85% .... higher at $39.60

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  4:25:28 PM
Yellow Corp. (YELL) $24.90 -1.73% ... higher at $25.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  4:23:59 PM
IDEC Pharmaceuticals (IDPH) $35.82 -1.29% .... lower at $35.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  4:23:14 PM
Xilinx (XLNX) $25.71 -3.16% ... lower at $24.72.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  4:21:25 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $26.69 -3% ... higher at $27.10 in post-market.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/17/200,  3:59:03 PM
Earnings after the bell
This matrix will update as the earnings appear. 
MCHP est +0.15 actual +0.16 cents - will declare dividend
MSFT est +0.24 actual +0.23 cents - missed ******
PSFT est +0.13 actual +0.14 cents
XLNX est +0.15 actual +0.13 cents after charge
AVID est +0.17 actual +0.25 cents
IDPH est +0.24 actual +0.24 cents
PMCS est -0.03 actual -0.02 cents
PLCM est +0.03 actual +0.08 cents
SFA est +0.19 actual +0.31 cents
UTSI est +0.30 actual +0.33 cents
WEBX est +0.11 actual +0.14 cents
YELL est +0.53 actual +0.54 cents
IDTI -0.05
IOM +0.09 cents, one time cash dividend of $5.00 per share
ELY +1.16
JBHT 2:1 split
Serious confusion on MSFT numbers, lots of charges and
mixed messages. Stock is up +.50 in after hours.
Guidance is confusing with estimates at 29 cents for
the next quarter.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  3:54:46 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,059 -0.38% ... trying to attempt a rally into close, but looks at 9,065 resistance. Off just 32-points here.

Caterpillar (CAT) $63.68 +8.5% pegged higher at the close

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  3:34:49 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  3:34:35 PM
Put to call ratio .86.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  3:33:11 PM
Sudden drop in the Airline Index (XAL.X) $52.95 -5.9% last hour. Didn't see this action for 03:15 update.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/17/200,  3:31:07 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies Part II

The more times the stock tests and remains above the current trend line, the greater the significance of any subsequent price decline that violates the line. Occasionally stocks simply bounce back and forth in a trading range and when that happens, it's helpful to identify the boundaries of the pattern for clues to its future direction. For example, if a stock breaks decisively below a support level on heavy volume, it is likely to continue falling until a new level of support is established. In contrast, when an issue rallies above a previous resistance level with lots of buying interest, it is likely to continue higher as there is no overhead supply to restrict its upward movement. Successful traders will look at many indicators from different perspectives and identify signals that forecast upcoming changes or trend reversals. When you can do this accurately on a regular basis, your portfolio value will grow consistently, regardless of the overall market character.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/17/200,  3:27:33 PM
I've been having some problems posting to the Monitor for the past couple hours, but I'm back now...

LEN $69.42 (-2.37) As we hoped it would, our new Put play on LEN gave us the breakdown we were looking for, cracking under $69.75 and falling all the way to $68.79 before the dip buyers showed up. The rebound from just below $69 was no great surprise, as we expected some support to be found at the 50-dma. Now, traders that passed on the breakdown entry will want to watch for where the rebound fails. I've got my eye on the $70.50 level, as that is both the site of intraday support (now broken) from earlier in the week, as well as the site of the descending trendline connecting the intraday highs from Tuesday and Wednesday. Once LEN closes under the 50-dma, our next downside target looks like $65.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/17/200,  3:19:18 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies

Ray, I know you focus mostly on technical analysis for your picks but I am more of a long-term investor, so I often look at fundamentals as well. I recently started learning to trade option combinations and wondered what indicators a new trader should focus on when trying to find stocks for directional spreads. Thanks! TK

Hello TK...Various systems have been developed to help traders form an opinion based on the chart patterns and predict future turning points (and direction) in the underlying issue. To avoid complexity, new traders should focus on three basic concepts: the stock's price trend; its support and resistance levels (the prices at which a stock typically reverses course); and the relationship between price movement and volume activity. The analysis begins by determining the strength and direction of a trend. The basis for future predictions is supported by the fact that once a trend is in motion, it will continue in that direction until a change in character occurs.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  3:15:44 PM
Hi Jonathan,

Regarding your post of Ameritrade out of shares to short. What does something like this portend if it were true. Something like lots of shorts out there and any significant move higher would accelerate a short squeeze?

Great work lately BTW,

SkoThanks, Sko. That's the question. I suspect it means that the smaller traders are max short, which is more or less confirmed by the boost in the put to call ratios all day. All secondary stuff, but if all the shares that Ameritrade has are loaned to shorts, it tells me to be alert to the possibility of a bounce here.

 
 
  James Brown   7/17/200,  3:05:55 PM
Intuit Inc - Meanwhile shares of INTU, a current put play on OI, is performing well. The stock is currently down about 4%. Shares dipped as low as $40.31 before bouncing. Fortunately, that afternoon bump appears to be fading. Short-term traders may want to consider taking some profit off the table. We'd probably refrain from initiating new positions this close to support of $40.00 as we would not be too surprised to see a bounce back towards the $42 level before it rolled over again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  3:05:10 PM
Another .87 put to call reading. QQV -2.02, VXN +1.84 and VIX .74. I'm hearing that Ameritrade is out of QQQ shares for shorting.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  2:56:29 PM
QQQ $31.08 -3.3% ... lost hourly support and now back to test the session lows of $31.05 and WEEKLY S1 of $31.04.

OEX 493.30 held steady at 495 after sell program alert, but starting to move low on QQQ weakness.

Bond market closes in 2-minutes and Treasuries, while finishing lower on the session, finding buyers into their close.

 
 
  James Brown   7/17/200,  2:54:25 PM
eBay Inc - Shares of EBAY finally joined the rest of the world and caved into some short-term profit taking. The drop back towards the $110 level stopped us out at $110.99 for a $7.00 move. There is still four days left before their July 24th earnings announcement and many still speculate that they could announce a stock split.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  2:48:58 PM
SanDisk (SNDK) $53.28 +9.41% .... forgot to check in on SNDK after last night's earnings. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  2:33:09 PM
Put to call ratio is .87 for this past half hour, QQV somehow -3.05 at 26.14, VXN +1.74 at 35.73, and VIX +.48.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  2:30:05 PM
United Health (UNH) $51.68 +6.31% .... Goldman upgrades here to "outperform," .... cuts Wellpoint (WLP) $80.40 +0.91% Link to "in line"

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  2:26:43 PM
Sell Program Premium Alert .... INDU = 9,055, SPX = 983, OEX = 495, NDX = 1,257 , QQQ = $31.25.

Comes right at OEX WEEKLY S1. Steady here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  2:16:33 PM
Buy/Sell Program Premium alerts after early offsetting buy and sell program premium alerts, have only see one sell program alert, which was seen right when Philly Fed data was released at 12:00.

That 12:00 program came at SPX 987 and OEX 497.75

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  2:13:19 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 495.24 -1.16% .... session low has been 493.95 and now moves back into "sliver" of resistance from WEEKLY S1 495.15 and MONTHLY Pivot of 495.40.

First type of intra-day strength signs I'd look for is a move higher to 496.50, then pullback to test and firm at 495 area.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  2:06:15 PM
United Health (UNH) $52.05 +7.05% Link ... standout gainer in the Healthcare Index (RXH.X) 292.5 -0.53% after healthcare service provider reported Q2 EPS of $0.71 per share, which was 5-cents better than forecast. Revenues rose 16.6% year-over-year to $7.09 billion vs. $7.06 billion consensus. UNH said bottom line was largely driven by lower medical loss ratio in commercial risk segments.

CIBC looking for sell off based on the the medical loss ratio benefit, which it believes gives more artificial look to bottom line.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  1:58:04 PM
Hmo Index (HMO.X) 720 +1.29% ... moving to session higher here. Leading compent gainer is Oxford Health (OHP) $43.23 +3.29%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  1:42:38 PM
The put to call ratio has risen to .92 for this past half hour, QQV +.79, VXN +1.78, VIX +.71.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  1:35:11 PM
UTStarcom (UTSI) $37.86 -5.22% ... lower, most likely on NOK outlook. The provider of wireless and wireline access and IP switching solutions reports earnings after the bell. Consensus is for EPS of $0.30 compared to year-ago $0.22 per share. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  1:28:19 PM
MGM Mirage (MGG) $32.40 -5.59% ... resumed for trading. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  1:27:54 PM
A golfclap for the bears in COF, which is getting smoked today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  1:22:04 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/17/200,  12:42:56 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Another big mover in today's session is Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN), a supplier of health care information technology. Shares of the stock were up over 20% in early trading after the company announced favorable quarterly results and issued an optimistic outlook for the coming year. Earnings per share were $0.25, compared to analysts' consensus estimates of $0.23, and second quarter revenues increased 11% percent to $207.7 million. However, the big news came in the form of cash flow as the firm took in over $36 million in the second quarter, driven by strong collections and a record number of Cerner Millennium implementations. New business bookings revenue was an outstanding $201.2 million, up 13% compared to the year-ago quarter, and only $1.1 million lower than Cerner's all-time record bookings of $202.3 million set in the fourth quarter of 2002. With $788 million of contract backlog and $290 million of support and maintenance backlog, it appears that CERN is finally on the "road to recovery" and this issue will certainly be one to watch as we move into the second half of 2003.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  12:34:45 PM
Indexes make new lows with exception of the Dow, major indexes making new session low. While Philly Fed shows positive economic news, traders seem to not want any part of it at this time.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/17/200,  12:24:23 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Despite the profit-taking in technology issues, there are a few NASDAQ stocks making headway in today's session. Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) has been one of our favorites in recent weeks and the issue is up almost 10% this morning after posting quarterly profits that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The company, which makes digital memory for devices like cameras and MP3 players, reported a net profit of $41.3 million, or 52 cents per share, compared with a year-earlier profit of $9 million, or 13 cents per share, as revenue grew 84% year-over-year to $234.6 million. Analysts on average expected earnings per share of 31 cents for the quarter on revenue of $186 million. Sandisk also said it expects third-quarter product revenues to be "slightly higher" than the second quarter and the optimistic outlook was supported by an upgrade from WR Hambrecht, which raised its price target for shares of SNDK to $62. In a research note the brokerage commented, "Overall, we do not see any slowdown in the company's business and believe momentum will accelerate into (the 2003 second half) through 2004 as the handset opportunity is validated."

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  12:22:37 PM
12:00 Internals

NYSE 5,495 -1% ... Vol. 644 million share, A/D 8:22, NH/NL 32/15

NASDAQ 1,708 -2.29% ... Vol. 838 million shares, A/D 6:22 NH/NL 78/5

NYSE NH/NL notably weak as it relates to past couple of weeks and months. On Tuesday, NYSE reported 14 new lows, yesterday was 18.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  12:17:32 PM
The put to call ratio is up to .78, QQV +1.5, VXN +.86 and VIX +.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  12:11:50 PM
MGM Mirage (MGG) $32.37 -5.68% ... halted on sell order imbalance. Stock halted at about 11:38 AM. Reported earnings pre-market for Q2 of $0.45 (ex-items of $0.10), which was 9 cents better than consensus.

Halt seems to come from company saying its Board decided not to delcare a dividend, CEO saying share repurchase would be better use of capital than dividend to shareholders.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/17/200,  12:06:58 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Stocks continued their downward spiral today but one of the issues opposing the trend is ITT Educational Services (NYSE:ESI). Shares of the company are up 15% in the wake of a positive earnings report that beat consensus expectations. ESI, which is the largest U.S. post-secondary technical education company, said second-quarter net income was $9.8 million, or 21 cents a share, compared with $6.8 million, or 14 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts expected 19 cents a share so there as an upside surprise, but the real catalyst is the bullish enrollment data. New enrollments increased by 15.8% to 8,665 students and online course registrations posted a nine-fold jump as the company transitioned to a larger web-based curriculum. ESI also plans to add two colleges during the second half of the year and analysts are optimistic about the potential growth of the company's revenue base. Our conservative synthetic position in the issue exceeded all expectations, offering up to a $2.50 profit in less than one month.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  12:03:23 PM
July Philly Fed Index released.... 8.3 vs. 7.0 consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  11:52:56 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 424.71 -2.13% .... looks to test its July 1 relative lows of 424.68 here. Rather negative response from market considering this morning's strong housing and building permits numbers for June.

Index components have LEN -3.85% Link , DHI -2.66% Link , TOL -2.14% Link , CTX -2.07% Link , KBH -1.83% Link , PHM -1.56% Link .

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/17/200,  11:43:20 AM
Another hour down and little has changed. We had one slight wiggle off the early lows and now we're very close to testing those levels again. The ADVDECV figures nailed it again, as they continue to plunge earthward, with the NASDAQ clearly leading the weakness. In many respects, this looks like a "do over" of yesterday's session, albeit at lower levels. We got an early plunge with weak internal volume numbers and then a persistent tight range chop for the remainder of the session until the short-covering ramp at the close. Will the rest of today be a duplicate of that torture? I hope not, but early signs point to "yes".

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  11:39:56 AM
The put to call ratio is down to .77, and the QQV is back below 30, now up .40 at 29.59. VXN +1.51 and VIX +.42.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  11:13:11 AM
The CBOE put to call ratio is late, but the QQV is back to nosebleed territory, up over 10%, +3.8 to 32.99, VXN +1.75 and VIX +.41.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  11:08:05 AM
SPY $99.11 -0.83% ... stopped per trailing stop technique.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  11:01:47 AM
QQQ $31.44 -2.3% .... has been hovering at this $31.40 level last 40-minutes, which is derived from WEEKLY pivot retracement.

SPX 986.33 -0.76% showing similar intra-day at MONTHLY Pivot and WEEKLY S1 990.03.

For Index Trader Wrap, I will consider bearish trade in SPY closed out at WEEKLY S1 of $98.79, while I personally have tight stop at SPY $99.11 per 10:34:02 comments and tight trailing stop technique after target was reached, but allowing opportunity for some downside, while still at a level I deem support. SPY $99.00 here. "Late morning high" has been $99.07 in SPY. Reason for $99.11 trailing stop is from opening 10-minute low of $99.08 got a bounce back to $99.44, then failed back lower, with $99.08 then serving some resistance after SPY traded WEEKLY S1 and MONTHLY pivot support.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  10:44:56 AM
The put to call ratio has dropped to .85, as has the QQV, now up 2.2 at 31.39.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/17/200,  10:44:26 AM
LEN $70.32 (-1.47) Here comes the big test for our OI Put play on the homebuilders. LEN was flirting with a breakdown under $70 on Tuesday with the sharp selloff in Treasuries, but the bears couldn't get the job done. LEN bounced back near the $72.50 level yesterday before running out of steam and it appears the bears are back at work this morning. Traders that didn't take the rollover entry yesterday afternoon will want to keep an eye on the $69.75 price level. A break below there would take out the July 1st intraday low and would make for a solid momentum entry enroute to first likely support at 465. Keep in mind that the 50-dma at $68.95 could be the source of enough support to generate at least a short term bounce. More conservative traders may just want to wait for the subsequent rollover after that rebound before playing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:43:40 AM
Altria (MO) $39.40 -1.5% .... I see now how my downward trend from yesterday "wedge" looked to be in play as bearish support. I was looking at the 5-minute bar char with "all session" turned on and the time span from last night gives look that the downward trend serves support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:39:56 AM
QQQ $31.39 -2.39% ... extending losses from $31.45 stop and will now test 07/10/03 relative low of $31.33 and may have WEEKLY S1 of $31.04 in play. I would think bears will pressure here with a decent stop just above the $31.58 level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  10:38:30 AM
They're selling equities and treasuries and gold today. Asked where the money's going, I'm thinking either cash or foreign bonds. With the put to call ratio as high as it is today, and the QQV up a whopping 3.06 to 32.25, VXN +1.71 and VIX +.38, maybe they're buying puts :) That's tongue in cheek, because the options market is far too small to accomodate the proceeds of all the selling we're currently seeing.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:37:51 AM
SPX/OEX .... pivot retracement traders may be seeing some "greater weakness" in the SPX vs. OEX in the retracement. My thoughts here is that SPX has greater technology exposure that OEX, thus some disparity in the matrix.

SPX trader thinking this way will monitor OEX at MONTHLY Pivot/WEEKLY S1 of 495 which should be tested quickly with OEX at 496.44 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:34:02 AM
SPY $98.89 -1.06% .... after getting stopped for a loss in the QQQ and seeing some weakness there, here's what I'm doing with my SPY bearish trade.

With SPX right at MONTHLY Pivot of 984.49 and WEEKLY S1 985.75 "zone of support" an my cover target, those traders that may be holding similar may want to do this. Instead of just covering here, place a real tight stop just above at $99.11. Let MARKET close out short on any type of strength from here, or allow for further downside to next level of SPX 972-973.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:25:54 AM
Disregard prior MO comment regarding yesterday's intra-day trend comments. My chart was all screwed up. (I've deleted that comment).

Retracement of $39.14 still holding support based on yesterday's chart. Bears look for a break of that level to give thought of further downside.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/17/200,  10:25:32 AM
With the first hour of trading almost complete, it isn't a pretty picture for the bulls. Not only are the major indices now deep in the red, but the internals are looking pretty ugly as well. ADVDECV for both the NASDAQ and NYSE started in the red and headed steadily lower from there and are hitting lows of the session right here. This has all the earmarks of a monotonic decline session today and I would not be a fan of trying to buy a bottom on this drop. Gee, that sounds about like what I said yesterday, doesn't it? GRIN

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:18:33 AM
QQQ $31.45 -2% ... stopped from $32.12 bullish profile yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:17:29 AM
QQQ $31.54 -1.89% ..... session low of $31.48 darned close to $31.45 profiled stop, but not looking good. Will honor stop if triggered.

Next support may be at $31.40.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/17/200,  10:13:01 AM
So much for strength from the Chip sector! The SOX is leading the Tech weakness this morning, with a loss of 3.35%, and is now well off of the $400 level. Look for next significant support near the bottom of the channel from the February lows near $375.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:11:31 AM
Homebuilders see that DJUSHB 431 -0.66% and $HGX.X 280.80 -0.25% fractionally red. First thought this morning on housing data was that we'd see some gains at the open.

Eye on Treasuries.... selling in the major maturities at this point, but YIELDS haven't moved above yesterday's YIELD highs. 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) higher by 4.9 basis points to 3.994%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  10:08:38 AM
Put to call ratio 1.03.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:06:19 AM
QQQ $31.59 -1.74% ... back at lows here. Past "strength" now "weakness" in today's session and this not good for my QQQ bullish trade from yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:05:01 AM
SPX 990.15 -0.39% ... tried to follow INDU move higher, but finds sellers right at WEEKLY 19.1% retracement of 992.24 as we thought. Key level now is to see if morning lows hold of 988.13, if not, look for test of WEEKLY S1 at 985.75 .

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  10:01:42 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,110 +0.17% .... bids green, should give some lift to early morning negative psychology on IBM $83.50 -3.7% Link and Nokia (NOK) $14.89 -17% Link negativity.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  9:58:34 AM
Caterpillar (CAT) $60.23 +2.74% .... Reported Q2 EPS of $1.15, which was $0.49 better than consensus. Revenues rose 12.1% year-over-year to $5.93 billon, above consensus of $5.10 billion. CAT said results were boosted by "favorable currency impact of $221 million" (due mainly to the stronger euro and Australian dollar).Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  9:49:00 AM
Cocal Cola (KO) $44.67 +4.1% ... (Dow component) Reports Q2 of $0.54 per share, excluding $0.02 charge for cost-cutting measures ($0.03 gain from currency factored into consensus estimates). There has been some confusion this morning, but EPS looks to have been inline with consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  9:43:52 AM
QQQ $31.67 -1.55% .... gap lower comes below WEEKLY Pivot of $31.76, with opening holding mid-point of regression and MONTHLY's 19.1% of $31.58.

QQQ bull needs INDU 9,073 -0.22% off just 21-points to hold in here and perhaps move some QQQ bears in to cover.

SPX 988.52 -0.53% lower by 5 points on opening low of 988.13. Trying to edge up here, but looking for early resistance back at 992.24.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/17/200,  9:26:35 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  8:30:59 AM
8:31am U.S. JUNE SINGLE FAMILY STARTS UP 5.3%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  8:30:48 AM
8:30am U.S. JUNE HOUSING STARTS UP 3.7% TO 1.8 MILLION

8:30am U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 24,000 TO 412,000 LATEST WEEK

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/17/200,  8:05:35 AM
From a reader whose opinion I respect very much:

The DJX BP% fell below its 10 day MA yesterday. A very bearish signal. The futures are confirming. 8500 within one week is a very real possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/16/200,  12:34:17 AM
S&P futures (sp03u) seeing some selling his late at night. 988.40 here.

Sudden little "flury" of trade this late at night/early morning and at this level (just below late afternoon relative lows of 988.50) most likely some bullish stops beeing triggered, where stops were placed just below the afternoon lows of 988.50

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/16/200,  12:33:11 AM
Regression channel follow up from tonight's Index Wrap.

I made some note in the Dow Industrials bar chart, how trading has been "sloppy" around the lower end of bullish regression channel. I'm working on OEX chart for 09:00 AM Update and doing this....

Still taking regression (2 std. dev) from the March 12th bar, but find this interesting....

Instead of taking the other end of regression from the 06/17/03 high, I did this...

After anchoring regression at March 12th bar, I "slid" my cursor along the OEX and stopped at the May 20th pullback low of 459.55 and saw how OEX would just pierce this lower trend, but has always managed to close just above. Not stopping there, I then continued to "slide" cursor higher to the recent July 1st relative low bar of 484.41.

As I did this, the regression channel didn't change a bit from the May 20th low pullback regression channel.

On a closing basis, the MARKET, for whatever reason, has been able to find enough buyers by a close, to "always" get an OEX close back above this lower end of upward regression support. I will prepare this chart and comments for the OEX tomorrow morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/16/200,  12:32:59 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow posted at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/16/200,  12:32:50 AM
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Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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