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  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  5:56:04 PM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for next week posted at this Link

Just noting that the QQQ daily high today was $31.55, not the $31.96 "back tick". I'm going to leave the above matrix in the monitor just so I don't have to go back and mark the various overlaps found. However, I'm going to fix the QQQ part of the matrix and post in a minute. I'll check SPY and DIA for bad ticks too.

Here is corrected matrix for QQQ DAILY. Link I marked support correlation near DAILY S2 and WEEKLY S1 as this was an area for decline I thought might make attractive pullback entry for bull in Thursday evening's wrap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  5:08:11 PM
Nike (NKE) $52.00 .... not a share traded since 04:36:01

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  5:04:23 PM
Eagle County Colorado District Attorney files charges against basketball star Kobe Bryant.

Mr. Bryant's next court date is set for August 6, 2003.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  4:53:18 PM
I agree, Jeff. And if NKE doesn't, that would be a far worse reflection on the company than the alleged miscreance of one of its stars.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  4:39:09 PM
Kobe Bryant halted.... news pending if basketball star will be charged.

Nike (NKE) $52.00 -0.45% ... steady at $52.00 in after-hours trade.

If charged in alleged sexual assault, a trade setup for bull is to maybe get a jittery bull to sell to you at $47-$48 in after-hours, use that support from the recent spread-tiple-top. Link

Not sure, but I would think that NKE smart enough to have some type of "out" in the recently signed multi-million contract with Kobe where they wouldn't owe him any money, if CONVICTED of the ACCUSED crime.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  4:34:20 PM
Listening to James Cramer on CNBC.... agree to a point with his saying there may be a "rethink" on tech in coming months after thus far quarterly earnings and guidance. He tends to favor the "smoke stack" or "financial" sectors.

Here too I agree as it might relate to our brief discussion in recent sessions regarding the "spread" for banks improving with the recent higher YIELD in Treasuries, but still low Fed Funds rate.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  4:27:33 PM
QQQ $31.28 .... looking at some intra-day charts of various stocks/indexes. 4-lettered stocks especially ....

See lots of down then up and pullback to close, almost right in the middle of the day's range. It is this kind of junky trade on option expiration that can drive a trader nuts and you get an "artificial" type of trade where you can have all sorts of option strategies/hedges and just plain old manipulation to get a favorable close in play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  4:22:02 PM
Sell Program Premium alert at the 04:00 close. Since I only have q-charts delayed futures quotes, I'm thinking it may be the futures trying to settle at 990?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  3:54:09 PM
TSM earnings will also note TSM scheduled to report earnings on July 24 (Thursday) before the bell. Consensus is for $0.06 per share (year ago was $0.06). In April, TSM reported EPS of $0.03 and beat by a penny.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  3:37:07 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

Discuss TSM trade setup/observations.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  3:09:19 PM
Put to call ratio drops to .60. Treasuries close slightly lower, FVX +2.1 bps, TNX +1.5 bps and TYX +.7 bps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  2:50:19 PM
Day trade long, weekend hold .... Short-term traders seeing MU $14.23 +7.2% might take a look at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $9.93 +0.10% into the close.

Thinking.... trader in Taiwan might see today's move higher in MU, get aggressive Monday in TSM. Also... TSM might be "held back" here today with option expiration and $10.00 strike. These ADR's tend to "gap" so bullish side of me would think to get long before Asian markets open on Monday.

In this morning's 09:00 Update, noted Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted finished down -.23%, with some green numbers showing from the U.S. today, might see Asian markets up on Monday?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  2:43:41 PM
The put to call ratio is .61. QQV +.92, VXN -1.94, VIX -.83.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  2:24:25 PM
Micron Tech (MU) $14.16 +6.62% .... stock got "hit lower" yesterday, but nice rebound today. I've been hearing several analysts say they see good PC demand still holding and this, in my opinion, could play into favor of MU and some strength coming to DRAM prices?

Perhaps some of Nokia's comments weighs on handset chips and some money rotates to MU in coming weeks?

Here too, action may simply be option driven and tough to say on option expiration.

Still like the MU Oct. $15 calls (MUJC) $1.35 x $1.45 and hold partial from 07/09/03 profile. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  2:20:42 PM
buy/sell program alerts have not gotten one since this morning's "sell program premium" alert which was just after the Michigan Sentiment data.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  2:14:30 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,140 +1% ... make a "bold" move higher above weekly pivot. Expiration releated?

 
 
  James Brown   7/18/200,  2:04:43 PM
I believe it has been Linda and Mark who have mentioned leaving old indicators and trendlines on their charts for weeks and months only to watch them come into play again. This time I noticed how the 10-year bond yield has moved back toward a very significant level - the 1998 low. Yes, I've had this retracement tool on my $TNX chart for quite some time. If you stretch this out into a daily chart, you'll just how often the $TNX actually touches these retracement levels. This is just an observation as I'll leave the commentary to Jeff and Jon. chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  2:03:47 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,123 +0.8% ... did trade WEEKLY pivot of 9,125 about 45-minutes ago. Looking at 5-minute chart, recent little pullback from that test of WEEKLY pivot found 21-pd SMA as support at 9,115 as if bulls look to press the issue.

MCD +4%, CAT +2.9%, HPQ +2.4%, ..... INTC -1.5%, BA -0.9%, GM -0.8%

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/18/200,  1:57:18 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies: Part II

Another popular approach to diversification is when your portfolio contains positions that react to market changes in opposite ways. We generally identify these plays as "hedge" positions and one way to clearly illustrate the idea involves the energy sector. A conservative investor might hedge his portfolio by initiating positions in both an electric utility and a major oil service company. Higher fuel costs will have negative impact on the utility, but will boost the value of the oil service issue. Obviously the reverse is also true; lower oil prices will impact the oil company negatively while improving the utility's outlook. This strategy not only protects your portfolio against unexpected downturns in a particular industry, it also enables you to take greater risk with a few positions, which is likely to increase your total return.

Regardless of the manner in which you diversify your portfolio, it's important to remember that the activity is more than just a one time event. In all cases, you will need to follow a precise and well developed trading plan and you must make timely adjustments to the entire process whenever it is warranted by changing market conditions.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/18/200,  1:55:44 PM
Just back from a nearly 3-hour forced siesta (power outage) and pulling up a chart of the DOW and having to rub my eyes. Past 12:30 ET, the index has really traded in an 18-point range? Definitely an expiration Friday! On day's like this, I actually long for the excitement generated by those spurious trades like we saw Monday afternoon. Well, not really -- nobody likes those!

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/18/200,  1:45:52 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies

Attn: Spreads Editor -- I just started reading the newsletter a few weeks ago and I am impressed by the volume of information and the trading recommendations. But, it's also a bit overwhelming and since I have a limited amount of trading money, I was hoping you might give me some suggestions on how to divide my funds among the numerous plays offered. Thanks...WF

Hello WF, There is no "magic" answer to your question, however most experts would suggest that you distribute your portfolio capital efficiently among a few positions in different industry groups. By spreading out across industries, you can avoid the effects of violent swings in a particular stock or sector and reduce potential drawdowns when the unexpected occurs. When your capital is limited, you must manage that money effectively, and it has been my experience that most of the candidates in a specific sector will perform in a similar manner. For example, if one or two of the suggested issues in a given industry group move as expected, the rest of the recommended stocks in that category also have a high probability of performing well. In contrast, when a position performs poorly, the odds are high that the rest of the issues in that sector will react in a comparable manner.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  1:43:59 PM
QQQ $31.18 (unch) ... Any comments on Double Bottom Breakdown on the QQQ PnF chart? -Tab

"Tab" I remember a soft drink called "Tab"... do they still make it? Those were the good old days for sure!

QQQ.... OK, I first start with the conventional $0.50 and $1 box chart, and here's an interesting observation where QQQ comes up to bearish resitance trend, which is considered the longer-term trend. Link so, I don't see a double bottom sell signal at this point, but I'm guessing that Tab is looking at a different scale than conventional. In past Index Trader Wraps, we looked at a $0.35 box scale, and maybe that's what Tab is looking at. Just a second....

Hmmm.... QQQ on $0.35 box size. Link Only "sell signal" I see is the "alert to weakness" $29.40 trade, which was reversed back higher with trade at $31.50 and it would be my impression right here that we're going to be at a level where some short may be sitting bids after seeing $32.55, but where a good reversal of the move would be seen at $29.75 or $30.10.

Maybe Tab is looking at a $0.25 box size? Link ... Ah! Here we are (maybe) .... yes a double bottom sell signal is found and perhaps a trader on this scale uses the "bollinger band" with AVG being the 21-day SMA and finds the Q's back in the middle of the range. I could think back to yesterday's stop loss of $31.45 which was triggered on weakness and make a tie with that too. In last night's Index Trader Wrap, I mentioned to look for short entries back near $31.75, and here too I can envision that, but at this point, not sure I would get the chance. A trade back at $31.75 on the $0.25 box scale would be a "normal" 3-box reversal. We could also use the channel technique like that shown in the Centex Chart we did today and 01:00 PM Update to creat a little channel on this chart.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  1:39:23 PM
The put to call ratio is up to .61 for this past half hour. QQV +1.08, VXN -.96 and VIX -.69.

 
 
  James Brown   7/18/200,  1:37:58 PM
In the constant search for the next trade, I stumbled across what could be an early reversal in the OIX oil index. Here's the chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  1:36:18 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

Think about how "contradicting" the headline is, and observations made in first paragraph. Then think about last night's Index Trader Wrap. I did after I actually read this 01:00 Update and what I placed in the "Headline" didn't make sense with observation of first paragraph.... or does it?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  1:22:55 PM
Looking for confirmation on this story:

LONDON, July 18 (News Agencies) – In what could lead, as one expert put it, to "a full-scale government crisis," British police found Friday, July 18, a body matching description of David Kelley, an official advisor on Iraqi arms at the centre of a row over the government dossier on Baghdad’s alleged weapons of mass destruction.

edit: Confirmed.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   7/18/200,  1:20:01 PM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- Portfolio Activity

It appears today's session is going to be rather lackluster as most groups are trading in a relatively small range. After two days of rampant profit-taking, that's good news for bulls and some analysts are optimistic that the market can build a base for future rallies from this range. In the Spreads/Combos and Premium-Selling portfolios, there has been little activity of significance this morning except for some limited upside in a few of the more volatile technology stocks such as Invitrogen (NASDAQ:IVGN), j2 Global Communications (NASDAQ:JCOM), Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and UTStarcom (NASDAQ:UTSI). On the downside, Tech Data (NASDAQ:TECD) continues to decline in the wake of a dual downgrades by Lehman Brothers and Buckingham Research, and it is becoming clear that we chose a bad time to speculate on a recovery in the issue. Among the bearish positions, Proctor & Gamble (NYSE:PG) has bounced back after announcing Wednesday that it is exploring options, including a possible sale, for its Sunny Delight and Punica juice drink brands in order to focus more on its snacks and coffee businesses. Investors must be in favor of the move as the stock is up $1.27 to $89.27 on the news and any further buying pressure may suggest a change in the recent lateral trend.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  12:54:23 PM
McDonalds (MCD) $21.47 +4.78% .... The other day I mentioned I had a craving for some MCD, but it was to look for pullback entry to $20.00. I have alert set there, but 50-day SMA got in my way. $20 was identified as this is where MCD recently gave the spread-triple-top buy signal, and 3-box reversal from recent high would have been right there at $20.00. Link

Will stay calm here, but attractive partial bullish position here at $21.50.

Has been outperforming the market since March as depicted by relative strength vs. SPX. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  12:50:35 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,123 +0.78% .... lends to positive tone for market here and now just under the WEEKLY Pivot of 9,125 and edges back above its rounding lower 21-day SMA. Tempting short/put here, but I defer to next week when I can at least get some new WEEKLY levels and see if 9,200 isn't represented again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  12:39:52 PM
The put to call ratio prints .61 again, QQV +.87, VXN -1.32, VIX -.74.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  12:23:45 PM
Centex Corp. (CTX) $71.95 -2.73% ... here's an updated PnF chart and comments. Link

Now... I hold 1 put on CTX from June 19th profile in the Oct. $75 put. I kind of wish I had two right now as I could sell 1 at this base trend, and if rally back to $76, then leg back in with an additional put. However, I also had a put in RYL (which I closed out the other day gosh darnit).

So, I've "got" to hold my one put right now, but in a way, begin to look forward to a rally back to $76.

Here's a YIELD chart of the 30-year ($TYX.X), which I kind of tie in to mortgage rates. Link

Rick Santelli, from CNBC that often makes comments and analysis on the bond market (I really like and learn from his insight) said the other day (based on his observation from trading bonds for years) that YIELDS tend to unwind quicker on the upside than they fall to the downside.

When you think about those comments, isn't it just the same as as we see in equities, but with price in mind? Hey... just as the bulk of stock traders (heavily bullish bias) has "fear" driving stock prices lower quicker that a rise would be seen, the same may be true for bond traders where YIELD higher is creaed by "fear" of falling price.

The "best trade I never made" was that day on June 25th here in the market monitor at 10:41 Link in the 5-year YIELD calls. Ugh! Tried working a bid in between and thin traded nature of these options didn't find me getting any action. Ooooo if I'd have just taken the offer.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  12:15:08 PM
The put to call ratio has risen to .61.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  12:08:11 PM
Re that QQQ trader with August puts. If particularly nervous, can always sell them and buy contracts further out- avoids the rapid premium slide as August becomes front-month. I personally think that QQQ has a date with destiny sooner rather than later, but more time is a good buffer.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  11:54:00 AM
QQQ trader responds ..... per (11:38:51) .... trader has Aug $31 put. I'd hold. With downside view right now to $30.23.

As it stands right now, WEEKLY pivot should move lower after this week's trade, and August MONTHLY pivot at this point might move higher, but we're not done with July yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  11:48:17 AM
Altria (MO) $40.06 +0.57% .... watched the stock pretty close yesterday intra-day and began to think slight bullishness into its close might be option expiration related to $40 strike (closest even number). Last 40-minutes, stock has been "kissing" the $40 level as intra-day support after session high of $40.40.

Having been a prior bull on the stock (before recent judge ruling scenario change), I too would have been a $40 put seller from May 25th's hap higher. I'm thinking those naked put sellers are going to be willing to take the stock here or may simply be trying to hold MO above $40 as to not get assigned. Next week may be interesting to get a read on market's view of recent news regarding bond requirement to see what type of risk the market really sees from the potential impact of higher bond requirement.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  11:40:50 AM
Terrible news about F's 10% workforce reduction. Al Green's jobless, profitless recovery claims more victims.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  11:39:14 AM
Put to call ratio rises to .57. "Darn, Ben, first Paul, then Sanders, now that blasted kid at OptionInvestor.com..." grunts Al Green.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  11:38:51 AM
QQQ $31.14 -0.12% ... had an e-mail question regarding what to do with a QQQ put. I can't help much if I don't know strike/expiration that trader holds.

However, I'm assuming current month expiration and I personally don't like holding a trade this close to expiration, as too many "bad things" could happen to my trade (call or put) that has small loss or gain suddenly moving against me on some type of "crazy" move should a large position unwind on expiration day.

Trader made note that $29 was "max pain," but I don't see $29 in the cards at this point considering economic data is now out of the way (for today) and there are no earnings schuduled for release during or after the market close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  11:26:20 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  11:12:54 AM
Put to call ratio drops to .52, QQV +1.59, VXN -.03 and VIX -.25. Treasuries are pretty steady, FVX +0.1 bps, TNX +1 and TYX +2.3.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  11:01:26 AM
Trying to get the complete picture here. Are Al and Ben smoking big churchills or the smaller robutos? I assume that Fridays after lunch the cognac and cigars come out. (Grins)

The sun's always setting somewhere, and the Masters of the Universe may well opt for full-on torpedos with their morning double espresso shorts. Perhaps after lunch, a robusto with Al's double half-caf mocha frappuccino instead.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  10:55:15 AM
The keys to the Batmobile jangle as they land on the highly polished teak end table beside which Al Green reads the morning paper. "Gmorning, Rookie," he says, he voice a little more gravelly than usual after the 2 day marathon of Congressional and Senate testimony he endured this week. "Al," responds Ben "Dr. Defration" Bernanke, his eyes briefly catching the elaborate framed potrait of Yasuo Fukuda mounted on the oak panelled, lead and kryptonite lined wall of the sitting room within the Marriner S. Eccles Building. His feet happily detecting the hum of the 3000 hp printing presses and nuclear particle accelerators in the basement, Dr. Defration pulls up a chair and puts up his dogs. TGIF.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  10:37:29 AM
SpectraLink (SLNK) .... $16.35 +9.87% Link .... another SanDisk Link ? or Stratasys Link ?

Neither really have any "business similarity" but a theme develops with a unique product that may be "better than the competition" where some BIG columns of X and unrealistic bullish vertical counts built higher and higher. Maxtor (MXO) *.72 -0.9% Link is a stock that I think shows similar characteristics. I know nothing about their products, but some things I've read Link and Link have me wondering if they might just not have some type of "superior" product innovations.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  10:35:04 AM
The put to call ratio is down to .55, QQV +1.43 at 29.21, VXN flat, VIX -.11.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  10:27:02 AM
QQQ $31.02 -0.57% ... was able to hold WEEKLY S1 yesterday of $31.04, but giving it up here. Not "big" break as session low has been $30.92, but now should have intra-day resistance firming back at $31.40 and WEEKLY 61.8% retracement.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/18/200,  10:26:09 AM
LEN $68.33 (-0.92) Now that's what we want to see! With the weakness in the Housing sector ($DJUSHB) again this morning, our bearish LEN play has broken below its 50-dma and things are looking encouraging for the bears here. Look for next possible intraday support near $67 and then $65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  10:20:35 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 422.40 -0.71% .... also weak.

TOL $26.53 -0.85% .... discussed this one the other night for a trader. He's a little profitable after a 6-week hold from $26.75. Finds early support at the 61.8% retracement of $26.43. We took a retracement on TOL just as we did in the Index Trader Wraps on the DJUSHB from the March lows to recent highs. TOL weaker in the retracement range.

TOL is a "tuffy" for me as a PnF'r doesn't have a bearish count to work with at this point Link and I would think at some point, would see a 3-box reversal type of bounce. Can introduce some noise to the chart by changing box size to $0.50 Link and begin to see how the stock is seeing distribution.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/18/200,  10:18:34 AM
An early look at advancing vs. declining volume shows a mixed picture here, much like we see on the actual indices. While both the NYSE and NASDAQ opened the day with their ADVDECV indicators in positive territory, we're starting to see a bit of divergence. The measure for the NASDAQ has rolled over and gone negative and it is starting to have a dragging effect on the NYSE, with ADVDECV there flattening and appearing to start a rollover. While it is obviously subject to change in what will likely continue to be a very whippy morning, things appear to be shifting in favor of the bears.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  10:15:58 AM
Good comment Mark (10:11:06) .... my thoughts too.

QQQ $31.10 -0.25% .... was thinking about a $31.00 or $31.50 range trade today around expiration.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/18/200,  10:14:33 AM
Just noticed that the SOX has moved into the "greater than 1% mover category" with the NASDAQ moving into the red here. SOX now showing a 1.45% slide on the day and testing important support at $375, which is the bottom of the ascending channel from the February lows. If that support gives way, the only remaining near-term support will be the 50-dma just below $371 and then the late-June lows in the $355 area.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/18/200,  10:11:06 AM
Well, this certainly has the feel of an expiration Friday, as action in the market is truly mixed. Sure the broad indices are in the green, but looking at the sector action provides a clue that things are just jockeying around. The only two sectors on my sheet that are showing a change of more than 1% are the Oil Services (OSX.X) with a 1.48% gain and the Networking (NWX.X), up 1.51%. recall that the OSX has been trending down for weeks now, so this has the feel of some short-covering and readjustment ahead of expiration. The NWX got hit hard over the past 3 days, so a bit of a rebound on short-covering makes sense on expiration Friday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  10:08:56 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 379.29 -0.97% .... session lows here. Xilinx (XLNX) $25.19 -1.9% lower after last night's earnings.

Dorsey/Wright and institutional clients view SOX.X on 10-point box, Link while 5-point box Link gives a little more noise, but a nice bullish support trend that an individual stock trader, perhaps trading XLNX Link or competitor Altera (ALTR) Link might want to use.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  10:06:20 AM
The opening put to call ratio is .77, with the QQV +2.25, VXN -.54 and VIX +.04. Expect plenty of action from the volatility indices today, opex Friday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:59:20 AM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 337.82 +0.2% Link , while Retail HOLDRs (AMEX:RTH) $83.14 -0.31% Link provide somewhat mixed look. Have seen some weakness after the Univ. Michigan data.

Autozone (AZO) $79.42 +0.62% ... from recent bullish profile of $79 still hanging in there. Link and relative strength versus SPX has reversed up into column of X since bullish profile. Now reads... "buy signal, column of X" Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  9:58:01 AM
3.25 6-day repo just announced from the Fed. This is against 6B expiring from yesterday, for a 2.75B net drain today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:54:31 AM
July Univ. Michigan Sentiment was released at 09:45 AM and came in at 90.3, which was just a smidge below 91.0 consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:53:22 AM
Sell Program Premium Alert INDU = 9,091, SPX= 985, OEX = 487, NDX = 1,257, QQQ = $31.27 , $TNX.X = 3.979%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:52:32 AM
Sector Bullish % .... Trying to keep my eyes open last night, took a quick look at Dorsey's Bullish % data.... see that the Biotech Bullish % (BPBIOM) reversed back up to "bull confirmed" from "bear alert."

I can't show that bullish % chart, but very similar to the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link where we've seen the big move higher, some digestion of gains, then a recent resumption of bullishness. The "crusher" to the downside could come on the reversal back lower, a bullish % "sell signal" where the "bear confirmed" status is seen.

It is my opinion, the if we see "bear confirmed" status in various sectors and BUYING in Treasuries, that a sharper decline move would be seen. However, if Treasury YIELDS stay firm, then we're going to probably see more of a sector to sector type of trade, where money moves from sector to sector on a week-by-week basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:40:28 AM
Early sector action ... Green across the board with Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 74.33 -0.4% (look for rally short/put entry opportunities) fractionally red, Forest/Paper (FPP.X) 277.02 (unch).

Gainers out of the box Networking (NWX.X) 180.49 +2.45%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) 116 +1.7%, Combined Telecom (IXTCX) 151 +1%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:33:59 AM
July Michigan Sentiment due out at 09:45 AM EST. Consensus is 91.0 compared to June's 89.7. Could be a market moving report.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:31:09 AM
SpectraLink (SLNK) $14.48 ... stock surged 34% yesterday. I've profiled this maker of office telephony products as bullish in the past and know a couple of people that work for this Longmont, Colorado-based company. (they didn't call and tell me things were going this good, but had talked about a new product they were launching that was seeing favor). I have a few shares in a retirement account, but traders might look for any weakness back near $12.00 for a bullish entry. Link

Also looking at Avaya (NYSE:AV) $6.84 Link which makes various telephony systems for office/home. I haven't seen a neighbor that works for them in several weeks, but earlier this spring was talking with him (he works in tech support) and I was asking him about business activity this spring (mid-May) and he thought things were steady. He did say things were much better (corporate atmosphere) after being spun off from Lucent (LU) Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/18/200,  9:17:57 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   7/18/200,  7:44:20 AM
The US Dollar Index is back above 97 by a couple of pennies, and the futures are up, ES +2.75 and NQ +2.50. MSFT is trading 26.65 after a brief flurry above 27.75. Gold is holding at 344. Today is the last day of trading for most July options, and it's time to start looking for the possible resting prices of securities you follow as strike prices begin to "attract".

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/17/200,  8:50:19 PM
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