Option Investor
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  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:43:23 PM
NVLS is warning for next quarter. There is a pushout in some Japanese orders and due to revenue recognition rules they have to delay the income. They are saying they are seeing some factors supporting a sustained recovery.

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:30:28 PM
TXN +0.07, est was 6 cents, raising guidance to 19-23 cents for next qtr. Prior est was 11 cents. !!!! Correction - new estimates includes 13 cents of special item. !!!!

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:28:20 PM
KSU is warning

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:22:56 PM
GSPN -0.09 cents, proforma -0.05 cents

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:17:38 PM
INET -0.02 inline, breakeven with items

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:15:56 PM
ALTR +0.09 inline

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:07:30 PM
SLAB lowered guidance for next quarter

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:06:13 PM
SANM +0.01 inline

  Jim Brown   7/21/200,  4:05:57 PM
NVLS +0.05 cents

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  4:03:28 PM
Great timing on our posts, Jeff- looks like you and I are in synch.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  4:00:57 PM
Jonathan, You are my favorite bear. I always read your stuff to be sure I am not taking too much risk. About the cash in the bond market. Any feel for how much of the sales are to close carry trades? I thought there were a lot of trades where funds borrowed in Japan and bought treasuries. With the rates backing up and the capital losses mounting, wouldn't they just reverse the trade and send the money back to Japan? Keep up the good work.

The action in the currency markets implies a good ole fashioned exodus of money from US assets, with the US Dollar Index getting clocked again today. That would be my *guess*, but it's difficult to be confident. The charts say that equities and US t-bills are ill, with the TNX at a new year high today.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:59:35 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 96.10 -0.5% .... off about 1/2 point today and slips just below its 21-day SMA. Some cash leaving the U.S. today, and my guess is bulk leaving came out of Treasuries.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:52:26 PM
eSpeed (ESPD) $18.00 -2.59% .... here's a broker with larger exposure to bond trading. When looking at its chart, can't say that it looks all that much different than S&P 500 Index (SPX.X), but with "buy side" on bonds drying up recently, might see some bond trading revenues begin to slip in coming quarters.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:49:00 PM
Instinet Group (INET) $5.05 -3.8% .... reports earnings after the bell. The electronic trading brokerage firm, which is 63% owned by Reuters said on Jully 11th that share volume comprised 11.52 billion shares of NASDAQ's 1.73 billion shares of exchange listed stocks. Brokerage stocks may be impacted tomorrow based on recent trends that INET might discuss in tonight's earnings discussion.

In December there were rumors that Goldman Sachs might be interested in buying INET from Reuters, with one unnamed analysts saying he thought the stock could fetch $20.00 per share.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:43:02 PM
Central Fund of Canada (CEF), up 4.44% today- the largest move I've seen in months on the gold and silver fund.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:37:45 PM
ES is at resistance at 977.50, but the short cycle oscillators are looking strong so far- the MOC orders will determine how far this bounce gets.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:36:32 PM
Novellus Systems (NVLS) $34.66 -2.91% ... semi-equipment maker also expected to report earnings after today's close. Consensus is for EPS of $0.05. Today's trade at $35.00 is double-bottom sell signal and would have me thinking that the MARKET isn't looking for much blow out type of guidance. Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  3:29:00 PM
03:15 update posted at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:18:22 PM
Where is all that cash going from bonds. I don't see it in stocks so it must be going somewhere. Is it being parked in order to use it later on in the week on stocks or bonds? Or is this some sort of refunding?

I have no idea, but I see the euro, franc, and loonie all up today. It could be going into foreign bonds. Other than that, I have no idea other than to the fed, but the fed added 3.75B today.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:10:30 PM
Put to call ratio .76, equity pcr .62 and index pcr 1.25.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  3:03:13 PM
Treasuries closed right at their lows of the day. TNX +20.7 bps. I would hazard a guess that there are some very big players in trouble at these levels.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  2:54:17 PM
Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 417.41 -1.39% ... saw weakness in last 10-minutes and I think it was due to CNBC's Ron Insana report on level of indebtedness rising as interest rates fell, but the rise of real estate prices has increased that level of consumer indebtedness. Isana saying he has been shopping for a new home in New Jersey area and prices/condictions at high levels had Insana saying ... "if this isn't sign of a housing bubble then I don't know what is..." as one house he looked at, that hadn't been upgraded since the 1960's was asking $1.2 million.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:54:01 PM
Despite the complacency in the options markets, gold is holding its gains and the HUI is now up 5.93 to 150.2, XAU +2.45 to 77.32. Very big moves are occurring today.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:52:35 PM
TNX is now up 18.7 bps, with the ten year treasury futures down 1.19%.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  2:47:54 PM
Avaya (AV) $6.78 -1.02% Link .... mentioned this one on Friday as bullish for partial positions after bullish action in Spectralink (SLNK) $16.37 +0.92% Link . AV edges up from lows of $6.47 after Dougherty & Company initiates coverage with "buy" rating and target of $10. Dougherty says checks indicate that the migration to IP telephony is underway and notes that early June quarter results from enterprise telephony vendors Plantronics (NYSE:PLT) $24.23 -1.66% Link and Spectralink have exceeded consensus with upward revisions to guidance. Dougherty also finds stock's valuation compelling at an EV/Sale ratio of 0.6x.

  Mark Phillips   7/21/200,  2:47:40 PM
Not only are the broad markets at a key inflection point, with the SPX nearing 975 again, but so is the Broker/Dealer index (XBD.X), which is once again coming down towards the critical $550 support level. If this level breaks, then we'll be looking at the possibility of a retracement into the $510-520 area. As of right now, the OI Play list is effectively straddling the group, with a call play on GS (one of the stronger stocks lately) and a put play on LEH (which has been underperforming for weeks). GS has just broken below its $85.50 stop and appears headed for a test of the bottom of the gap at $84.70. LEH isn't looking quite as weak today, but given the fact that it has already retraced 50% of its March-June rally, that isn't any great surprise. In order for LEH to break the $63.50 support level, it will probably require that the XBD index break below $550.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:42:38 PM
The selling in treasuries is growing extreme, with FVX now up 16.9 bps to 2.994%, TNX +17.6 to 4.415% and TYX +1.5 to 5.061%.

  Mark Phillips   7/21/200,  2:39:28 PM
LEN $66.73 (-1.62) Another bullish day for bond yields has translated into another bearish day for the homebuilders, and LEN is getting hit again. Now having broken below $67, it looks like a test of the $65 level could be just around the corner. At any rate, it looks like we may have finally caught a runner to the downside in the housing sector. It should now be safe to lower stops to $72.50, which is the intraday high from last Wednesday.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:38:01 PM
Interactive Brokers has just reported that CBOE options are now available for trading.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  2:33:40 PM
Fedex Corp. - Shares of FDX, our new call play on OI, have bounced from the $65.00 level this morning. This is a nice short-term retest of the $65 level as support. The $TRAN average is bouncing off its lows and should it be able to breakout over the 2600 level of resistance, then FDX might really have a chance to climb higher without having to fight weakness in the sector.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:24:28 PM
A bulletin just came through on Interactive Brokers that CBOE options are currently unavailable for trading.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  2:22:37 PM
The put to call ratio has been printing .77 to .78 all afternoon. The volatility indices are up, but marginally so, while selling continues to increase in treasuries, with the TNX up 14.9 bps now. There's little bullish in the charts, and the complacency in the options market is particularly worrisome.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  2:18:14 PM
Airline Index (XAL.X) 52.81 +0.2% ... joings Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 76.98 +2.8% and HMO Index (HMO.X) 729.5 +1.12% for sectors in the green.

Alaska Air (ALK) $22.77 +1.51%, JetBlue (JBLU) $42.71 +1.34%, Northwest (NWAC) $9.74 +1.56%

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  1:48:00 PM
Sell signals on the short cycle oscillators for ES.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  1:47:22 PM
Sector Winners and Losers

- Winners -
The only real winner today is the XAU gold & silver index, currently up 2.75%.

- Losers -
GHA hardware index: -2.95%
GSO software index: -2.47%
SOX semiconductors: -2.12%
DRG drug index: -1.93%
OSX oil services: -1.90%

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  1:10:39 PM
The put to call ratio is .78 for this past half hour. Yields are off their highs, FVX +11 bps, TNX +10.3 and TYX +9.4. The Cdn dollar, Swiss franc and euro are all positive, as is gold. Equities and bonds negative. This is strange- usually, when the US Dollar has been sold off, we have seen a related jam in equities and bonds. Not today, however.

  Mark Phillips   7/21/200,  1:05:16 PM
HD $32.45 (-0.61) Bears seem to be gaining the upper hand here, with price currently breaking below the trendline connecting the 6/23 and 7/10 lows and closing in on the 50-dma (now at $32.25). A break below that level would be the first solid confirmation of what appears to be a nascent bearish trend and would lay the groundwork for our initial target of $30 being reached.

  Mark Phillips   7/21/200,  12:57:04 PM
GS $$86.33 (-1.37) Testing support again, GS is back near the $86 level, continuing the see-saw action that has dominated trading in the stock in the past few days. In addition to strong support at the top of the 7/07 gap, GS seems to be finding support from the 19% retracement of the March-June rally. If that support fails, then a test of the 50-dma will likely be just around the corner. On the other hand, a recovery back over $88 should enable the bulls to make another run at the $90 level.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:39:20 PM
Put to call ratio .79, equity pcr .61. index pcr 1.47.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  12:28:29 PM
Ingersoll Rand (IR) $54.75 +3.75% Link ... bucking broader market negativity and fresh 52-week high. Last week (Thursday) reported earnings (ex-items) of $0.89 per share, which beat estimates by $0.16 per share. Broker RW Baird downgraded IR on Friday saying stock was near their $53 price target and historical valuation benchmarks indicate little room for multiple expansion.

Will note PnF chart's bullish count is $54.00. Not bearish, but bulls may look to take some profits off the table if long.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:28:01 PM
August gold is up to 352 now, HUI +5.19 and XAU +1.99. Even CEF, which has lagged all of the gold rallies lately, is up 2.34% today.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  12:15:31 PM
30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) selling in bond has YIELD higher by 1.12 basis points to 5.023% and just edging above 07/16/03 relative high.

Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 419.50 -0.9%, PHLX Housing Index (HGX.X) 277.46 -1.24%.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  12:13:53 PM
BorgWarner - BWA announced its Q2 earnings before the bell this morning. Estimates were for $1.54 on revenues of $746.8 million. The company turned in $1.65 a share with sales of $769.5 million. While the company beat estimates Wall Street seems to be focusing on its decline from earnings a year ago (which were $1.70 a share). The stock is currently painting a very big bearish engulfing candlestick on very big volume of 700,000 (well that's big for BWA). Considering the up-trend, this could be a reversal in the making. A move under $63.00 might offer some confirmation for the bears but bulls will try and defend it at $60.00.

This could be influencing current OI call play, PCAR. Shares of PCAR are down 2.7% to $71.50. There are just a couple of days left ahead of PCAR's earnings and we're not about to hold over its announcement.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:09:07 PM
Put to call ratio .77, perfectly neutral. TRIN.NQ 1.62, TICK.NQ +23. No sign of strength here.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  12:07:02 PM
Treasury yields have ground higher still, FVX +10.2 bps, TNX +10.3 and TYX +9.7 bps, as equity futures set new lows for the day. I don't know how high the fed is prepared to see yields go, but those revolving yellow wire-encased emergency lights and bleating sirens must be going off somewhere in the Fed building.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  12:06:51 PM
Penn Gaming (PENN) $21.62 +7.5% Link ... higher after Pennsylvania Senate passed slot machine bill, which may allow slot machines at Pennsylvania racetracks. Bill was passed this morning. Roughly $3.2 billion annually is spent by Pennsylvanians on gambling in neighboring states, Las Vegas and Canada, according to gambling industry figures.

The Senate measure, which was sponsored by state Senator Tommy Tomlinson, is that the state's share would be an estimated $300 million and would remain in Pennsylvania to reduce property taxes.

Slot machine maker Intl. Game Tech (NYSE:IGT) $25.80 -0.34% Link .

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:44:54 AM
Lennar Corp - Shares of LEN, another current put play on OI, have lost another 1.44 percent this morning. Shares tried to trade higher this morning but failed at again under the $70 level and the stock's simple 50-dma. Looks good so far. The rise in the 10-year bond yields can't be helping mortgage rates.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:42:30 AM
Jon, I am going to refrain from commenting on Ralph's sticking-his-neck-out tendencies. However, I will say the guy is pretty entertaining to hear in person. Although the level of entertainment probably depends on whether you're bullish or bearish.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:40:58 AM
Put to call ratio .80, VIX +.9 to 22.26. QQV is 28.99, VXN 34.02.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:37:03 AM
Intuit Inc. - Shares of INTU, a current put play on OI, has broken down through support at the $40.00 level. Short-term traders who considered taking profits at $40.00 might want to consider tightening their stop if they haven't closed out their positions. Shares are looking overdue for a bounce but the drop under $40.00 is certainly encouraging for our put play.

The breakdown of the GSO software index below its simple 50-dma this morning isn't doing much to inspire buyers. The next support for the GSO should be the 120 level but it's anyone's guess if it will hold.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:33:44 AM
Thanks, James. One of these days, Ralph's going to stick his neck out and his head won't be on it.

Treasuries are getting trashed, FVX up 9.4 bps now, TNX +9.2 and TYX +7.7. The asset allocation theorists have had it too. Stocks and bonds rose together, and we see them falling together too.

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:31:19 AM
Overseas Market Update

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index: -37.98 to 10,102
Japan's NIKKEI - closed for holiday -

French CAC 40: -53.02 to 3076
German DAX: -76.97 to 3289
British FTSE 100: -27.00 to 4046

  James Brown   7/21/200,  11:19:17 AM
Sounds like Ralph is at it again. If you're listening to the tube, Mr. Acampora, chief technical analyst with Prudential, is sticking his neck out on the Industrials. This time he's saying the Dow will climb to 10,000 and eventually aim higher. I think they said his time frame was 12-18 months.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  11:17:33 AM
Put to call ratio .81, VIX +.77 at 22.13.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:48:22 AM
Put to call ratio rises to .84, with the equity component .76, index pcr 1.30.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:39:08 AM
No update from the fed on its website. A press release indicates 3.75B in 3 day repos added, which is a net addition with no expiries.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:38:10 AM
August gold has broken 351 and is now above the trendlines profiled in the weekend futures wrap. Bulls can go long at current levels with a stop at 350 or just below, depending on your risk tolerance. This is a breakout on the daily chart from bullish bull wedge and bull flag formations.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:30:08 AM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 495.40 -1.2% .... matching Friday's morning low here. I haven't gotten my new WEEKLY retracent brackets set yet, but this was last WEEK's WEEKLY S1.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:24:55 AM
June leading indicators rose 0.1%, which was inline with forecast.

Four components (stock prices, money supply, building permits and decline in initial unemployment claims) helped the index, while four other components (consumer goods orders, vendor performance, consumer confidence and interest rate spread impact) had negavit impact on June's gain. The remaining 2 (out of 10) components (average workweek and new orders for business equipment) had no effect on the index.

May's preliminary 1% gain was revised upward to 1.1%.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:21:19 AM
Re: your 9:40 post: I was ready to buy NOW. I getting lost. Why wait for what? Help apprecated.TY

Because there are descending trendlines it needs to overcome. A break of the 350-351 level will be targeting significantly higher levels, so why risk jumping in and buying the top of the move. Note that it's struggling at 350 and change for the moment. Note as well that I did not give you a trading recommendation. I stated my reasons for the comment and what I was looking at. My charts and comments are clear, but your trades are your own. Use my work as a different viewpoint only.

  Ray Cummins   7/21/200,  10:09:30 AM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies - Part II

A spread is a technique which involves the buying and selling of simultaneous but opposing positions in different option series. There are various reasons why a trader would use this approach but the primary reason is to reduce risk by limiting the effects of share price volatility that goes with any investment. For example, a bullish call spread (call-debit) is an inexpensive alternative to simply buying a call because the income from selling the higher-strike option offsets the cost of purchasing the lower-strike option. If a trader simply buys a call, he has unlimited upside potential but he may also have to hold the option contract for an extended period in order to profit from the movement of the underlying security. Unfortunately, there may also be adverse movements in the market during that period and if the fluctuations are severe enough, he might not have to close the position to preserve capital. If he is forced to liquidate the option prior to expiration, there is no guarantee that he will profit from a correct directional forecast of the underlying security.

Call-debit spreads and other conservative combinations are generally structured to enable a trader to hold option positions over longer periods and many techniques will help maintain profit potential while reducing the short-term risk of holding an outright or uncovered option. Visit the Spreads/Combos section of the OIN to learn more about position trading techniques.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  10:03:36 AM
LM Ericsson (ERICY) $12.77 +1.59% Link ... USB Piper Jaffray raises price target to $16 from $10 saying that cost reductions give ERICY opportunity for growth in 2004.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  10:03:27 AM
No announcement from the Fed yet regarding the day's open market operations. The opening put to call ratio is .64.

  Ray Cummins   7/21/200,  9:58:14 AM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies

(condensed) Attn: Combos Editor -- I've been reading your section for the past few weeks and some of your picks are great (I bought calls on PRX!) but I don't really see the advantage of using a spread in most cases. It seems like a single position would be far easier to watch and there are less commission costs if I have to bail out on a loser. I also have unlimited gains in straight options where spreads put a cap on my profits...so what am I really missing by not doing these plays? ML

Regarding Spread Trading Strategies: In option markets there are many ways to trade for profit. The most common strategy involves speculating on the direction in which the underlying security will move. If a trader correctly predicts the market direction and takes the appropriate position he can expect to make a profit. But even when the market moves in the predicted direction, owning the correct position (CALL or PUT) will not necessarily be profitable. The reason is, over short periods of time -- while the trader is waiting for the option price to move towards the theoretical value -- the position is at risk from a variety of changes in the market which threaten his potential profit. One solution to this problem is the "spread" or combination position.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:57:13 AM
Genesis Microchip (GNSS) $13.69 -8.6% ... CEO E. Donegan resigned as the company's CEO effective immediately. Company's CFO will serve as interim CEO until a successor is determined. Donegan said, "I strongly disagree with the memorandum opinion recently issued in the litigation between the company and Silicon Image pending in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia. However, in the best interest of the company and its stockholders, I have resigned effective immediately."

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:57:02 AM
XAU and HUI are participating in the gold rally, HUI +2.53 to 146.87 and XAU +1.09 to 75.97. This is shaping up to be a significantly higher low for the metals indices on the daily charts.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:46:06 AM
Chinese Internet stock lower on weekend Barron's article questioning whether the recent appreciation might be another bubble or the real thing. Companies mentioned were SOHU Link CHINA Link SINA Link NTES Link

Article went on to say all four stocks have market caps above $1 billion. Despite some concerne regarding valuations, article suggested these web portals' ad revenues keep growing at double-digit percentage year-over-year growth. MDB Capital group analyst recently downgraded SINA to "hold" based on valuation and thinks these stocks face "significant" risks and suggested the presence of an "overheated market."

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:42:03 AM
New lows for ES and NQ.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:40:32 AM
August gold looks like it's trying for the bull-wedge-within-a-bull-flag breakout I profiled in the weekend Futures Wrap. Looking for it to clear 350-351 with authority. If it plays out, the move should be big and so there's no need to try to frontrun it, particularly right at the descending upper trendline.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:37:51 AM
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) $9.70 -1.62% .... stopped at profiled $9.73 from Friday. Didn't get the carryover from MU on the weekend, or Taiwan markets (see 09:00 Update)

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:36:24 AM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $30.53 +2.07% .... upgraded at Smith Barney to "outperform" from "in-line" as firm thinks YHOO's second-half 2003 guidance is conservative and sees OVER acquisition as an important strategic move to help propel growth. Smith Barney raising YHOO target to $38 from $33.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:29:55 AM
UST Inc. (UST) $33.88 ... Goldman Sachs downgrading to "in-line" from "outperform" this morning based on their belief that the company's premium brands' sales are likely to remain soft for another couple of quarter due to a slower than expected smokeless tobacco category growth and more intense competitition from the prive/value segment.

On Friday, UST reported earnings of $0.77 per share, which was inline with estimates. The company said revenues rose 1.5% year-over-year to $438.9 billion versus the $473.5 million consensus.

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:29:40 AM
U.S. soldier, Iraqi interpreter killed in Baghdad Reuters - Link

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:22:42 AM
North American Semiconductor equip book-to-bill rose to 0.93 in June, up from a revised 0.90 ratio in May. However, bookings of $720 million came in just below the revised May 2003 level of $724 million and 39% below the $1.17 billion in new orders reported a year ago.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) $18.18 slippling 8 cents to $18.10 in this morning's pre-market trade.

  Jeff Bailey   7/21/200,  9:14:04 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   7/21/200,  9:00:51 AM
34 years ago today: Link

  Jim Brown   7/20/200,  7:02:39 PM
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