Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  8:07:55 PM
Pivot Matrix posted at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  5:06:55 PM
Index Trader Wrap from last night now looks to have been posted. I still think there are some things there worth reading, even though today's session is over. Things to think about regarding the move in Treasury YIELDS (ie 0% financing on autos). Also made a longer-term observation in the Dow Industrials, which I hadn't noted before (see morning's 09:27:04 post, Chart #2)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  4:46:58 PM
AT&T (T) $21.26 +0.47% ... bid higher at $21.90 in extended hours. (see 16:23:37 post) from Jonathan.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  4:00:52 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I'll be taking a look at charts tonight with the idea of lowering our stop before the open tomorrow, possibly to 502 or 503, but I want to see how futures and foreign markets reach first.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:59:58 PM
Hesitate to say... "round tripper" for the NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 5557, down fractional again. When I noted it this morning, NYSE Comp. reversed on a dime and made a session high of 5,614. Not unlike the SPX, it too finds 50-day SMA in play as support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:58:27 PM
Deutsche Bank's earnings were considered disappointing, Jeff, at least according to the information I read and reported this morning. I don't have the article I read in front of me right now, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:56:16 PM
German Banking News .... Deutsche Bank (DB) $64.56 -3.64% ... only news I see comes out of Germany's HVB Group, which said today that it lost 67 million euro ($76 million) in recent quarter due to bad loans.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:54:49 PM
I've been meaning to mention all day that I read somewhere that John Snow made comments last night to the effect that the Bank of Japan should stop intervention efforts on behalf of the yen.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/31/200,  3:54:26 PM
LEN $64.93 (-2.52) That last slide in the broad market seems to have been just the ticket for our bearish play on LEN, with the stock finally cracking below the $65 level. I still want to see the stock close below that level, but so far things are looking good, especailly with the $DJUSHB index threatening to break below the $414-415 support area. Note how LEN reversed so sharply at the 10-dma today? That should give us enough confidence to lower our stop to $67.30, which is just above the 10-dma. Note that on the intraday charts, LEN shows a trade at $62.00. Looking at the Time & Sales, there were no trades between $62-64.50, so I have to conclude that the $62 trade was simply a bad tick...however, I remember some comments from Jeff Bailey some time ago where he had noticed a bad tick was sometimes a precursor for where a given security was headed. I don't know if I've got the interpretation right (Jeff can correct me if I'm way off base), but it is nice to see that line up with our final profit target for this play at $62-63.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:51:13 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Unless stopped out before the close, the OEX short/put position will remain open overnight. I strongly urge all traders to make individual decisions about holding with tomorrow's economic numbers and the recent volatility in mind. We reached one profit goal today for those traders who want to take their (admittedly probably miniscule) earnings and run. Our next goal is 495.25, the bottom of the regression channel on the 60-minute chart and the 50-dma. Week before last, we left a profitable position open overnight and didn't have good results, so caution is necessary.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:50:38 PM
Deutsche Bank (DB) ... quick follow up here. Could go partial bearish here, but look for the break at $63.00 and triple-bottom as signal of technical weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:49:22 PM
Duetsche Bank (DB) $64.56 -3.64% ... quick screen of money-center banks shows this one today's biggest loser. If looking for a bank that might be on the wrong side of a bond trade, then this German-based bank might be a name to consider.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/31/200,  3:45:08 PM
I don't know how you did it but thank you.

Apparently there are some pleased shorts out there after that sharp drop. Oh if only I could claim to have caused it -- then I'd be able to make it happen again tomorrow!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:44:32 PM
Some talk of SPX put buying ahead of tomorrow's unemployment rate data. Can't confirm but most active volume today is August 985 puts at 4,041 contract. .... Just saw 215 contracts cross at $12.00. Looked to be at the offer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:43:18 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
With a plunge below 499 (at least temporarily), let's lower the official stop loss to 505.25 now, $0.75 above our entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:39:42 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 415.46 -2.5% .... extending losses

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:38:36 PM
Jeff, that was me repeating information from a reader, with Jonathan replying. See my 15:18 post.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/31/200,  3:38:08 PM
Yikes! Did I trigger that slide with my 15:28 post about DOW Theory? Maybe some hedge fund noticed the possible confirmation and decided it would be a bad thing? GRIN

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:36:00 PM
Sell Program Premium Alert INDU = 9,233, SPX = 990, OEX = 499, NDX = 1,277, QQQ = $31.71

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:35:23 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 307.33 -0.13% ... slips red. So do the larger banks as depicted by the KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 890.78 -0.28%.

Jonathan.... did you say somebody might be in trouble in the bond market?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:35:03 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the official stop loss to OEX 506. The upside breakout of the bear flag was a trap. It's about to be decision-making time as the OEX now touches midline support from the big regression channel on the 60-minute chart and from the former descending trendline off the July 14 highs. Those in this play for a quick drop only have gotten that drop. For the rest of us, I'd like to see the OEX safely below 499 by today's close, and will be considering our end-of-day strategy over the next few minutes.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   7/31/200,  3:28:31 PM
Dow Theorists are going to be watching the close with great interest today, as both the Industrials and the Transports have traced new highs for the year today. If the Industrials can hold abov 9323 at the close, it will be a solid bullish confirmation of the TRAN closing at a new high for the year. Remember, in classical DOW Theory, it isn't the intraday action that is important, it is the close. When these new highs occur in close proximity (especially on the same day) it is usually a key event. I'm not a dyed-in-the-wool DOW Theorist, but I do pay attention to these events when they happen. At a minimum, should the DOW close above 9323, we may have to give the bulls their due and admit they might be able to prop up this market just a bit longer.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  3:25:11 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:21:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
We just had an upside breakout of the formation that appeared to be a bear flag formation. Conservative traders might consider a 506 exit on our short/put play entered at 504.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:18:42 PM
Reader Comment Talked to a major mortgage trader and he thinks something larger is at hand here.. with the move in bonds... nobody seems to have and answer but somebody might be in trouble.

Response: I don't know anything about this rumor or its validity, but it does remind me of something a friend who works for the FDIC recently told me. They watch the banking indices to get first wind of failures. It seems a little backward to me, as it seems the FDIC should be the first to know, but maybe not.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  3:09:39 PM
We appear to be getting that bear flag formation now instead of earlier where I'd expected it. So far, that's all it looks to be: a tight range of higher highs and higher lows after a quick plunge. It's classic bear flag behavior, but that doesn't mean we can trust it to break to the downside. If it's going to, it needs to do so before retracing more than half the flagpole, which will be reached at about 504.77.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  2:56:54 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We had a one-five-minute-candle attempt at a bear flag before the OEX broke down again. It's heading fast down toward the midline support of the regression channel I posted in my 12:42 post. That midline support now comes at about 501.20, and now coincides with the descending trendline off the July 14 highs, so that's going to be a possible bounce point. Those traders who are in the trade for a quick few points need to decide ahead of time whether they want to park orders there as bounces can be fast and furious. Our official stop remains 507 and we will not be officially exiting at that midpoint support unless something changes in the interim.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  2:45:49 PM
It's time now for a bear-flag formation off the sudden drop on the OEX. Let's see if that's what happens.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  2:39:28 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Our OEX 504.50 short/put entry was just triggered. Our stop is 507.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  2:35:39 PM
If the DJI retreats here, it sure is setting up the potential for a nice double top, isn't it? Of course, that double top would not be confirmed until a fall beneath the trough between the two tops. Sometimes that trough level provides strong support and the potential double top is never confirmed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  2:31:42 PM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,000.98 +1.36% .... "softening" a bit here at 4-hour low support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  2:26:41 PM
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) $44.55 +4.14% ... stock jumps from $42 intra-day low amid Bloomberg report that company is considering putting itself up for sale for more that $10 billion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  2:19:11 PM
The Transportation Index (TRAN) extends the gains it made earlier this week, trading at 2649 as I type. It's trading now at levels not seen since the first week of July, 2002.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  2:19:11 PM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) higher by 20 basis points at 4.514%... incredible move continues.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  2:03:40 PM
Reader Question: I would be interested in your technical out-look on BRCM, support levels etc.

Response: On the linked chart, I've included retracement levels from the October low to the July high, and you might note that BRCM today appears to be finding support at the 50% retracement level, a level that coincides with historical support at 20. Link Many times stocks find support at 50% retracement levels, with most retracements measuring 1/3 to 2/3 of the previous movement. A retracement all the way to the 61.8% level near 17.50 wouldn't be impossible then, but BRCM will likely find support there as it's also the locus of historical support and the 200-dma at 17.98. If OBV continues declining at the rate that it's doing, however, even that conclusion might be questioned. At the current time, however, I wouldn't expect sustained trading below the 200-dma.

With BRCM attempting a bounce from the 50% retracement level and the Bollinger band, but with ADX beginning to slant up slightly (showing the downtrend picking up strength), it's difficult to say whether it will next bounce up toward 22.25 or even 23.84, or whether it will next fall toward 17.50-18.00. Today's bounce attempt hints at one action while the declining OBV and rising ADX hint at another. I can say this: a drop through 19.80 probably predicts a fall toward the rising 200-dma. A bounce, however, might be stopped at any of the lines placed above the current position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  1:52:52 PM
Intl. Business Machines (IBM) $82.34 +1.7% ... stock rebounds today after break below 200-day SMA and double-bottom sell signal of $81. I have a conventional retracement set from March low to May high and has 38.2% at $83.81 resistance, 50% at $81.78 and 61.8% at $79.15. Looking for resistance at $83.81 to hold with rounding lower 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA also at/near this $83.81 level. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  1:47:26 PM
Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 ($MSH.X) ... There look to be one heck of a lot of "key" resistance levels in play right now in the major indexes. The MSH.X is testing one too at June 6th high of 391.04. I've lost track of the number of "head/shoulder patterns" that have broken to the upside of right shoulder, but at some point, one will work. If MSH.X makes the move above 393, then I'd have to expect further bullishness above 393. Link

Can probably tie this narrower 35 tech stocks into just about every other index at these levels.

INDU = 9,350 , SPX = 1,003, OEX = 505.8, NDX = 1,295, QQQ = $32.22

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  1:32:45 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  1:31:53 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
For aggressive traders only, aware of tomorrow's release of economic numbers, enter short/put on an OEX dip below 504.50, with a 507 stop and a 500 first target and a 495 second target. Volume patterns currently do not support this play, so I consider it high-risk, especially in lieu of tomorrow's heavy release of economic reports. However, a drop to 504.50 will confirm a double top on the five-minute chart and provide our first hint of weakness. After consultation with Jim and an examination of the chart posted in my 12:45 post and a similar one Jim had studied, I've decided this has a reasonable risk/reward.

The most aggressive traders can begin phasing in positions at current levels. We're approaching the 1:45 push, so an alternative entry would be on a push back toward the day's high, but not above 507.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  1:12:15 PM
Volume patterns still show strength, although NYSE adv/dec ratios are not as strong as they were earlier today. Adv:dec ratios are still 18:13 and 18:12 for the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, however. Up volume is still about triple down volume on the NYSE and almost four times down volume on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  12:52:16 PM
Whoa! .... not sure what's going on here. the very short-dated 13-week YIELD ($IRX.X) 9.12 -3.59% just took a dive in YIELD on buying. (Note: 9.12 is actually 0.912%)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  12:42:32 PM
Here's something I'm watching on the OEX 60-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  12:36:16 PM
One possible OEX descending daily trendline broken to the upside (the best fit one) and one yet to be broken (the one encompassing intraday highs, too); the fast line of daily stochastics braiding around each other in an incomprehensible pattern; MACD still inconclusive; and RSI turning up, but still within that 50-60 band that it's squiggled around inside for a while now: with these mixed signs any decision about down or up is going to have to be made on blind faith. I sure hope all this sorts itself out sometime soon, but traders should be leery of jumping to one conclusion or the other before it does.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  12:28:06 PM
S&P 500 Index Chart (SPX.X) on intra-day 5-minute bars. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  12:24:38 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Next resistance looms only about four points above the current OEX positions, so I'm not going to be issuing a long signal at another sustained move over 506 even though volume patterns support a move up to that next resistance about four points away. That resistance can be seen in the first chart linked to my 11:51 post. Volume patterns have pointed to strength all day. As I mentioned this morning in an early post, a move over 500.80 or 501 predicted a move up to 504.50 to 506. A sustained move over 506 perhaps predicts a move nearly up to 510, too, and a move over that hints at a climb up to 512.67. Each one of these is in three to four-point chunks, however, with each of those chunks being banded by possible strong resistance. With OEX spreads as wide as they are, the Swing Trade model would benefit from a four-point move only if it occurred within a rather quick time frame, perhaps only a few hours, and only if we caught the absolute best entry and exit. We're going to be watching for a rollover somewhere through here or else a move above June highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  12:14:56 PM
Internets .... somewhat left out of today's gains. EBAY (unch) and several Chinese Internets, which have been flying high like CHINA -4.3%, SOHU -0.48% and NTES -1.95%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  12:13:17 PM
Reader Question: What's w/ GE? It's pushing up vs. its 50 dma with stochastics pointing up. If i read the charts right a close over the 50 day would be bullish as it seems that when it last took that MA out it started the current downturn. It also seems like the 50 day is proving to be a hard nut to crack.

Response: You're right about the 50-dma, it appears, with that 50-dma currently at 28.87 and with GE just below it at 28.81. Jonathan has been commenting on GE's performance this last week, and his warning of GE strength last Friday was one of our first signs of the building rally. It certainly looks as if it's returning to its bellwether status, doesn't it? Maybe we should set alerts for that 28.79 figure. If it closes over the 50-dma, I would expect to see resistance again near 29.75, the site of a possible left shoulder of a possible H&S formation on the daily chart, but that resistance could be only temporary.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  12:06:58 PM
WEEKLY R1's still holding as a resistance level. QQQ $32.16 +2.38% strong, with session high of $32.33 just shy of WEEKLY R1 $32.34.

OEX session high of 506.64 came just shy of WEEKLY R1 506.99.

WEEKLY R1's look like bears last line of defense, with WEEKLY Pivots now gathering support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  11:57:57 AM
I've corrected the first link on my 11:51 post. Here it is, too: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  11:52:07 AM
U.S Dollar Index (dx00y) 96.94 +0.9% Link ... BIG move today in the dollar and strong. As much as this SPX bear would rather not admit at this point, the selling in Treasuries and strength in Dollar looks bullish for equities. SPX 1,002.71 holding its highs here, but still at trend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  11:51:23 AM
Here's what I'm watching: Link Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  11:49:03 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,003.13 +1.58% ... stuck here at 1,003, which is right at my "old" downward trend.

Eye on the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 310.43 +0.87% here and correlative pivot analysis resistance levels. If BIX.X make the breakthrough higher, the I'd have to think SPX gets above trend.

I think CRITICAL point right here. I feel equities got the economic news they have forecasted, but will they forecast further? Q2 GDP showed more momentum that some may have thought and may have Q3 and Q4 forecasts being revised upward.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  11:38:18 AM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $26.05 $11.05 ... making session highs here and has been a "wild" one so far. I think bulls need the move above $26.27 to further push some bears to cover. I don't have any stock/options for them here, and still hold long.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  11:18:32 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/31/200,  11:18:14 AM
There was a report last week that with options and the recent split Gates now owns over 1 billion shares of MSFT. Probably just needed some pocket change.

 
 
  Andy Aronson   7/31/200,  11:15:10 AM
I am seeing reports that Bill Gates Sold 2 Million shares in the past week. We all know how many shares he owns and that this is a small drop in the bucket. I am thinking that he must need some cash, or he is not as confident in his stock moving to the upside. Something we may want to consider. aaronson@OptionInvestor.com

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  11:09:19 AM
The two S&P's are now at their descending daily trendlines, while the DJI is well above its similar trendline and the COMPX has broken out of a possible bull flag on the daily chart to head toward the midline resistance of its regression channel, just about at 1300. The COMPX and DJI actions hint that the S&P's might achieve an upside breakout of those triangles that had bearish portent, but that's not certain yet. If the OEX breaks above 506, a test of 510.70-512.67 looks to be in the cards. A break above 512 is going to confirm a double-bottom on the OEX daily chart, but I haven't been able to find reference in any of my technical analysis texts to a double bottom being a continuation pattern. I'm not sure it's a valid pattern to watch as a continuation pattern, then. Of course, a rollover below 506 or so is going to confirm the resistance of that descending trendline. Need I say we're at a key point?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:51:34 AM
Do you ever have a day like this? My short/put positions are losing ground, of course, but my counterbalancing/hedging long position is, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:49:13 AM
Swing Trade Signals
With the DJI safely above a formation that looks a lot like the bearish right triangles on the two S&P's, I'm hesitant to assume that the OEX is going to turn down before 506, although the last two month's history say it will turn down at its descending daily trendline. That means that I'm not going to be willing to step in front of a train, in the form of positive volume patterns and other intermarket relationships, and go short/put on an anticipated rollover. From where I'm sitting, going short/put at 506 as we anticipate a rollover would mean a risk up to 513, and that's not a risk I'm willing to make without strong evidence in the favor of a trade. I think we'll have to see the rollover occurring first.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:42:21 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,306 +1.16% ... session highs here and taking out the recent July 28th relative high of 9,304. Next and last resistance is 9,355.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:42:02 AM
Here comes our OEX test of 504.50-506.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:37:50 AM
Buy Program Premium Alert .... can't keep up with them.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:32:40 AM
HMO Index (HMO.X) 759.26 -4.2% .... hit lower early. While not a component of the HMO Index, guidance from Cardinal Health (CAH) $56.77 -11.9% of 15% forward growth was below consensus outlook for 20%.

HMO components weak across the board with Aetna (AET) $61.30 -7.8% Link leading HMO Index declines after setting all-time high yesterday after intra-day earnings release.

Oxford Health (OHP) $42.70 -5.3% Link also weak.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:27:25 AM
Each time the OEX rises toward that upper descending trendline seen on the daily chart (one that began forming back in early June) and then dips again, it gives more credence to the formation of that bearish right triangle. I'm watching the Dow Jones Industrials, however, and noticing that it's trading slightly above the top of a similar descending trendline after dipping back under it earlier in the week.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:23:55 AM
Buy Program Premium Alert INDU= 9,244, SPX = 990.5, OEX = 499.6, NDX = 1,273.7, QQQ = $31.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:23:15 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 308.98 +0.39% .... session high has been 309.65 and once again has trouble getting back above 310. Puts lid on SPX and OEX.

BIX.X support alert for weakness would be from pivot analysis of 305.50 in my opinion. Morning low of 307.75 pretty close to DAILY pivot of 307.75, so early alert to weakness most likely becomes a break below this morngin's low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:19:28 AM
A reader points out that the descending trendline from yesterday is actually the extension of a descending trendline that began forming July 14, so has even more relevance. Thanks, P.G. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:11:27 AM
NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 5,557 (unch) .... just dipped fractions red.

Discussed some NH/NL breadth issues in last night's Index Wrap (not posted) with market internals at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:11:11 AM
The OEX exceeds its previous day's low. This volatile early trading is likely to scramble the oscillators, but these severe downdrafts on good economic certainly don't appear to be the makings of bullish actions. I'm just glad we're not in an official Swing Trade right now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:07:19 AM
At least momentarily, the two trendlines I mentioned in my 10:03 post appear to be retarding advances again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:06:57 AM
Sell Program Premium Alert INDU = 9,259, SPX = 992, OEX = 500, NDX = 1,275, QQQ = $31.64.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:04:38 AM
June Help Wanted Index came in at 38, which was above 37 forecast. (Jim Brown posted in futures, but I'm posting for Options Monitor)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:03:31 AM
The OEX now challenges and pushes slightly above the trendline I showed earlier, as well as the descending trendline it formed all day yesterday. If it's successful in holding above these trendlines, 504.50-506 appear next.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:02:51 AM
July Chicago PMI came in at 55.9, which was above consensus of 53.8.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  10:01:15 AM
Was that our retest of the OEX low of the day? The OEX came within $0.18 of its opening low before rebounding. It's probably too early to tell, but perhaps.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  10:00:10 AM
Buy Program Premium Alert INDU= 9,276, SPX = 995, OEX = 501, NDX = 1,280, QQQ = $31.83,

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  9:55:40 AM
The OEX slides below the 50% retracement of the first five-minute range, with the theory being that it will now test the day's low. That day's low marks the top of this morning's gap, with gap support to be tested. Bulls want to see the OEX hold above the top of the gap or at least above the midpoint of the gap. Bears want to see the OEX driven below that midpoint in early trading and especially want to see the OEX remain below the 501.18 midpoint of the first five-minute range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  9:52:34 AM
Here's where the OEX advance stopped this morning, but I'm not sure if this trendline will retard advances all day: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  9:48:29 AM
Cardinal Health (CAH) $57.01 -11.5% Link ... Indicated lower after reporting Q4 (June) earnings of $0.89, which was inline with consensus.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  9:44:40 AM
The OEX retracement has been shallow so far, holding near the 500.80 S/R.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  9:39:17 AM
QQQ $31.75 +1.03% .... session high of $31.88 does look to have pegged downward trend (see 09:27:04) qqq chart, which is from Index Trader Wrap

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  9:36:37 AM
The OEX first five-minute range was enormous, so does give us good retracement levels to follow in early trading. The 50% retracement of that first range lies at 501.18. Bears want to drive the OEX back below that level in early trading, which perhaps is unlikely ahead of the rest of the economic numbers this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  9:36:11 AM
Monster Worldwide (MNST) $25.40 +8.49% Link .... stock higher on the jobless claims data, but I think more important will be the Help Wanted Index due out at 10:00. While the Help Wanted Index is newspaper, could make the tie with internet.

Also... company reports Q2 (June) EPS of $0.09 per share, which is penny better than forecast. Revenues fell 5.6% year-over-year to $167.2 million (consensus $164.8 million.)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  9:33:18 AM
The OEX 21-dma is exceeded in early trading, as is the 500.80 S/R level. Let's see how deeply the first retracement takes the OEX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  9:27:04 AM
Dow Industrials chart #1 : Link

Chart #2: Link

SPX Chart : Link

OEX Chart : Link

QQQ Chart : Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  9:26:27 AM
Swing Trade Signals
As futures hang near their early Wednesday morning highs, we will be opening the markets with the Swing Trade model flat. We're still waiting for an upside or downside break of the recent congestion zone. We'll also be watching for a rollover from the upper boundary, between 504.50-506 or a bounce from the lower boundary at 491-493, but we'll want to see intermarket relationships cooperating on those plays. The OEX closed beneath its 21-dma again yesterday, with that average at 499.75 currently, but it maintained support from its 50-dma at 494.58 currently. If the rise in futures carries over into the market open, we might see another challenge of the 21-dma in early trading. That's also near the site of the descending trendline that capped OEX movements all day yesterday, so let's see if the resistance holds.

Those who might have entered short/put on a break of OEX 498 face premium decay and should have stops appropriate to risk tolerance already set. For some, those stops might be set when the option price has decreased a certain percentage of its purchase price. Depending on your broker, you might set it according to the movement of the underlying. If the OEX moves above 500.80 or perhaps 501 to give the move some leeway, then it's possible that we'll see a test of 504.50-506. That would probably be ruinous for puts purchased a couple of days ago, depending on how deeply ITM or OTM they were.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  9:25:27 AM
Pivot Matrix for today posted at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  9:24:29 AM
Index Trader Wrap I don't know why the Index Trader Wrap wasn't posted to the web page last night. I'm trying to figure out how I can get it posted.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   7/31/200,  9:19:04 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   7/31/200,  7:17:20 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei climbed in early trading, reaching its only-slightly-above-flatline high-of-the-day shortly after the open. Diving into the early afternoon, the index reached a low of 9507.39 before retrenching and moving up again. The index closed down 69.45 points or 0.72%, at 9563.21, with the day's range having been nearly 150 points. Toshiba's earnings hobbled the semiconductor stocks, with Toshiba reporting a greater-than-expected loss and attracting a host of downgrades. Trading also was impacted by a statement from INTC's CEO. The CEO spoke in an Internet interview, according to Bloomberg, speculating that spending on technology would not escalate "a whole lot." Hitachi also reported disappointing earnings, but didn't report until just before the closing bell. It had declined during the session on fears that it would miss. NEC also dropped ahead of its earnings announcement, but then announced that strong sales of mobile phones and chips helped it achieve a Q1 operating profit, besting the year-ago operating loss. Canon saw a 35.2% increase in Q2 profit and raised its full year estimates of expected sales of laser printers and digital cameras.

Other Asian markets were mixed. In South Korea, the consumer price index fell 0.1 percent month-over-month, with prices of manufactured goods falling 0.5 percent. The Kospi traded down only 0.09%, however, as SK Group climbed after it was confirmed that it would be able to avoid bankruptcy and SK Telecom climbed ahead of earnings that turned out to be better-than-expected. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.21%, Singapore's Straits Times lost 1.22%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.32%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.20%.

Many European bourses currently trade down as markets react to mixed earnings reports. Many banks reported, with Deutsche Bank disappointing, BNP Paribas beating expectations, and HVB Group posting a 14% increase in Q2 net profit on flat revenues after trimming expenses. Drugmaker Schering (SHR) warned that it would not meet the previous year's earnings results. Retailers such as apparel maker Puma and German retailer Metro rose, with both raising full-year forecasts.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades down 17.50 points or 0.42%, at 4123.70. The CAC 40 trades down 5.36 points or 0.17%, at 3167.15. The DAX trades down 14.69 points or 0.43%, at 3414.34.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/30/200,  12:08:22 AM
Market Monitor Upgrade - Several readers have reported strange formats in the Market Monitor such as two date/time entries on each post. If you are seeing two date/time entries then you are not on the current version of the monitor which was released on Tuesday. Please go here and download the current version.

Download page: Link

If you want to know if your version is current then click "Help", "About Market Monitor" and check to make sure the version is 3.07.23.3 Link

Please download the current version this week as all prior versions will cease to function on Monday August 4th.

 
 
  Jim Brown   7/30/200,  12:00:33 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives