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  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  5:34:09 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow posted at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  3:59:14 PM
Nuveen Calif. Muni Fund (NYSE:NCA) $9.25 +1.22%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:59:10 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were just stopped out of our OEX short/put play at 495. We entered at 499.97, so the OEX moved 4.97 points in our favor during the trade. I don't like the look of that last 30-minute candle, so it may be a good thing that we were stopped out of the play. We'll see tomorrow.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  3:57:26 PM
Is Schwarzenegger/Buffet market moving news?

Might be. Here's a list of California national tax-exempt closed-end ETFs. Link that are offered by Nuveen.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:54:16 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
It looks as if one of those levels is going to be tested this afternoon--the 100-pma on the 30-minute chart. Let's lower the stop to 495.00, $0.50 above that moving average, and let the OEX take us out if it can surmount that level again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:47:54 PM
Swing Trade Signals
If not stopped out at the end of the day, we'll be holding the trade open. While I have qualms about opex week, we now have almost six points cushion, the OEX is below its 30-minute 100-pma and the midline of the down-slanting regression channel on its daily chart, and has now dropped well below its daily 21- and 50-dmas. I do expect some of these levels to be retested, but the advantage appears to have shifted to the bearish camp for the short-term anyway. If this weren't opex week, I'd have no qualms at all. We've got a nice profit under our belts already, so conservative traders might consider whether they want to hold overnight.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  3:38:24 PM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 21.44 +6% ... getting an upside alert I had set here as it would relate to last night's Index Trader wrap and quick discussion on how institutions might be looking to sell OEX 505 calls and buying OEX 485 puts for September expiration as a "hedge" type strategy.

May be proving itself here with VIX.X moving back above my 21.22 level?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:36:50 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 495.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:35:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
With the OEX currently challenging that 100-pma on its 30-minute chart and falling below it into the close, I'm now more inclined to leave the trade open overnight. If I do, I may evaluate the stop again before tomorrow's open to give us room to survive the opening volatility. Individual traders should make their own decisions as opex gives us risk above the addition risk we always take. The exception might be if we reach next strong support before the close, which very likely could happen if the OEX continues diving.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:27:16 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 496.25.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:26:01 PM
The OEX now breaks below the 100-pma on its 30-minute chart, although the break is minimal as yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:22:50 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 496.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:16:25 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to OEX 497.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:08:50 PM
Swing Trade Signals
If this were any week but option expiration week, I probably would not be giving such strong consideration to closing the trade today, but I think that's probably going to be my decision. I studied charts all day Sunday, and this normally might have been the type of play we could have ridden for several days, but the Thursday and Friday of option expiration week sometimes see strange things happen. Before deciding when to close the play, though, let's see what happens as we move further into this last hour.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  3:08:45 PM
Bond Market Closed ... INDU = 9,262, SPX=985, OEX = 496, NDX = 1,242, QQQ = $30.84, BIX.X = 302

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  3:05:21 PM
Dang! That Jim Brown is a fast typer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:04:49 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 497.75.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  3:04:39 PM
California Governor Candidate Schwarzenegger announces Warren Buffet to serve as Economic Advisor if elected.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  3:03:00 PM
QQQ intra-day chart on 5-minute interval with DAILY pivot retracement overlaid. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  3:01:39 PM
The OEX has now fallen below the ascending line that began building just before noon today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  2:57:03 PM
QQQ $30.95 +0.32% .... would look for "day trader's short" here, stop $31.11, target $30.70 by the close. (Based on DAILY pivot analysis, selling in Treasury)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  2:56:40 PM
The OEX five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics have turned back down again after trying to hook up, but now price has to turn strongly down along with those stochastics if we're going to see a big rush down into the close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  2:47:11 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Hmm. At this moment, I'm glad I didn't say "exit now" in that last post, but that still might have been the right thing to do. The 38.2% retracement of the day's range lies near 497.33, and we need the OEX to fail in this next test of that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  2:42:26 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Because our new 498.25 stop is just above the 50% retracement of the day's range, near 498, I've decided to leave the official exit as it is for now. If the OEX rise this afternoon has been a bear flag rising into resistance, it should break down at or before that 50% retracement, and the OEX should hit that level sometime at or before the bond market close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  2:37:56 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I am considering an exit soon if the OEX does not turn down, and wanted to give a heads-up. If this were any week but opex week, I'd think we should weather this test, but opex week adds an extra parameter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  2:24:04 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Nerve-wracking, isn't it? In almost every Swing Trade, however, we're going to have periods when the OEX just hangs above next support or below next resistance. We're going to be in a trade going one direction, plodding along, while the futures traders are whizzing past us in both directions. We could get out every time we're at one of these points, and I'm still evaluating whether that's what we need to do now, but then we miss the opportunity to participate in the next leg, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  2:21:35 PM
Great question .... Jeff: I'm beginning to understand you bank/bond thinking. My question is this. Suppose banks lose 2 customers for every 10 basis point move higher in YIELD. While the bank sees better profit on the loan spread, they might lose more on the lack of loan demand. However, there's got to be a point where the loan spread actually becomes more profitable, thought the number of loans generated declines? Is there any way of figuring out what this level might be?

Ah! Excellent thinking. I'm sure there is, but you've got two variables to figure out don't you? One is the "loan spread," which we can measure roughly by fed funds and what Treasury YIELDS are doing. However, the most difficult variable to figure out is loan demand (I know these numbers are generated each week, but all be darned if I can find a good source of that info).

This perhaps is why I'm following the BIX.X rather closely, as I'm thinking the MARKET will figure all this out, and they have the secret formula.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  2:12:44 PM
Capacity Utilization ... Aha!... CNBC's Bob Pisani just mentioned "capacity utilization" as a key economic indicator near-term, especially as a read as it would relate to a pickup in corporate spending.

On Friday, we'll get July Capacity Utilization data, where economists' forecast a reading of 74.4%, up fractions from June's 74.3%.

While I have to go back a few years, I took a class in Industrial Production in college, where I believe the Professor said that 85% capacity utilization was healthy, and it took levels above that to depict worries of inflation.

Current levels of capacity utilization, are why, in my opinion, job growth is so anemic. There's SO MUCH CAPACITY available right now, with all the productivity we've been seeing, to really warrant the hiring of workers.

As capacity utilization firms, so should job layoffs.

An "upside surprise" to the capacity number might have to be something above 75%, while anything much below current consensus a negative as it would relate to the prospect of job growth.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  2:07:55 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 498.25. Conservative traders might use a lower stop. I hope that the OEX will now fall through next support and we can soon lower our official stop again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  2:04:36 PM
Swing Trade Signals
This could end up being a daytrade today after all. If the OEX ends the day above 493, I would be afraid of a pop tomorrow, especially with this being options expiration week. If it ends the day below 493, then we're close to other support and we've already got a hefty move under our belts.

I want to alert you that as thunder grumbles overhead here in Dallas, I continue to have connectivity issues with my cable provider. If I disappear and your personal trading style would dictate that you exit at a specific point, then do so. Right now, I'm looking at a lowered stop and will post it in a few moments.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  1:53:43 PM
Resistance appears to be holding on the OEX, but we do have to see that drop below next support before we can be sure. This could just be the usual push we see this time of day, meant to test support or resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  1:40:39 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  1:26:04 PM
We're a little early for the usual 1:35-1:55 push that tests next resistance or next support, but that may be what's happening, although we could just as easily get a strong push to the downside in a few minutes. The outcome of this test could tell us much about eventual direction this afternoon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  1:12:08 PM
OEX 497 held on the first attempt, but that's not confirmed until it moves back below 496 and then 495.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  12:58:33 PM
The OEX five-minute stochastics achieved a lower low. Price did not. That's bullish, and predicted this upside break of the bullish right triangle, but we've expected a test of 496-497 all along, so this action isn't surprising. We'd rather it didn't happen, especially as we know that the ultimate result may be an upside break through stronger resistance. We have a choice, however, of getting out at supposed support, before the bounce, or staying in and watching the outcome of the test. The risk of one choice is losing the opportunity to participate in further downside. The risk of the other is being stopped out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  12:52:26 PM
The violated OEX regression channel from the August 6 low is now rising above the current OEX level and should lend its resistance to other levels of resistance above the current OEX level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  12:48:00 PM
That current consolidation on the OEX is now looking like a bullish right triangle--a flat top just under 496 and an ascending line of higher lows. If so, the breakout is going to give us our test of 496-497.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  12:44:28 PM
RMD follow up to (12:31:03) ... According to Dorsey/Wright's sector bullish %, RMD is classified as belonging to "healthcare" which is "bull confirmed" at 62.56%, and would remain bull confirmed unless a reversal to 62% took place and "bull correction" reading. As it relates to Professor Davis' study, the triple top buy signal is profitable 87.9% of the time for an average gain of 28.7% over a 6.8 month time period.

So... RMD gave this triple-top at $35.00, using a 28.7% average gain, this would also give an upside objective of $45.04. ($35.00 * 1.287).

Hmmm.... this does indeed have that bearish resistance trend of $47 looking to come in play with Professor Davis' study.

Now, this is not to say RMD can't achieve, or even exceed its bullish vertical count, but I'd use this further information to establish smaller bullish position at this time, then look to add to position once longer-term trends is broken to the upside.

While RMD is a different stock than discount airliner Frontier Airlines (FRNT) Link which some traders/investors may still hold bullish calls in, note the similar supply/demand characteristics. Point here is that FRNT exceeded Professor Davis' probability study from triple-top at $8.50, and continues to work toward bullish vertical count of $27.50. Go figure

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  12:31:03 PM
Resmed (RMD) $44.37 +1.76% .... What is the price target according to the P&F chart for RMD?

Would I use the bullish column established last August beginning at 25 (with 9 X's, suggesting a target of 52), or would I use the 12 X column that developed in April, May and June and targets 67. I do not see the bullish pattern established last August violated.

Either eay it RMD is still in a bullish trend, and yesterdays breakout interests me.

Thank you,

Bob

Very close Bob! Sometimes it is hard to see the PnF chart, but I would take those "9 X's" multiply by 3, then multiply again by $1 (for box scale) to get $27. But... add that 27 to the base column of X, which is $26, to get a bullish vertical count of .... $53. Still, I often-times decuct a little as I tend to be like Jim Brown and "sell early" when a bullish count looks to come to fruition. Link

I'm checking Dorsey's sector bullish % to see what sector RMD is in, and perhaps use Professor Davis' study as to that triple-top buy signal at $35.00 also. It may be in play at the bearish resistance trend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  12:29:10 PM
The current OEX five-minute chart shows a triangular consolidation after a drop. The presumption is that this is a continuation pattern and that the OEX will break out of this pattern to the downside, but that's far from given.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  12:24:05 PM
Ah Jeez.... sorry Bob... I thought you asked about RFMD, but I looked closer at your e-mail and you asked about RMD. Hang on I think you've got that right.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  12:12:34 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Jim and other traders sometimes mention the 100-pma on 30-minute charts. That average currently lies at 494.52 for the OEX. A move below it will be a significant blow to the bulls, while a move above it might mean that the bullish short-term outlook is preserved, no matter how bearish today's action felt. We can expect bounce attempts from this level, just as we can expect a retest of broken support between 496 and 497. We may bounce back and forth in this area for a while then, and we're entering an even lower-volume period when small program can bounce us around. As soon as the OEX breaks through that moving average, if it does, I'll be lowering the stop again, probably to 497.25. Conservative traders might want to begin using that stop now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:58:41 AM
We can expect a retest of OEX 496-497 now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:56:26 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 498.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:54:51 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Now that we're making money on this OEX trade, I'm soon going to begin lowering stops so that they're a bit tighter.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:52:45 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to OEX 499.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:49:17 AM
The OEX may now be breaking through that bear flag. It's testing 496 now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  11:44:28 AM
S&P futures (sp03u) .... here's my "fitted retracement" chart of the S&P futures contract, using the "IF, THEN" approach to trading levels. Link

This futures chart, may also be used by cash (SPX/OEX) traders to get sense of how a futures trader in the pits might be trading some levels. Combined with the pivot levels, gives an observation that there is a "sell bias" right now around the 991 area, and would remain until futures manage a settlement above.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:36:23 AM
The current OEX five-minute formation looks like a bear flag forming after the two big five-minute drops that formed the flagpole. That possible bear flag is forming right at support, but a drop through 496 is going to tell us that the flag has been confirmed and the support broken, all at once.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:31:26 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm either excited at finally getting an entry today after waiting all week or else I'm having a bad day as I cope with cable problems, but I just noticed that I never posted our official entry point. We entered short/put the OEX at 9:36, with the OEX at 499.97.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:26:34 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Speaking of wide stops, ours is getting too wide. I'd like to continue to base it on that important chart formation I discussed earlier, but I don't like stops wider than 4 points. Let's lower the stop to 500.50. On a move through 496, which I suspect we may soon be getting, we'll start moving it down again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:23:15 AM
Jim, I said we would have wide stops, didn't I? Ha!

 
 
  Jim Brown   8/13/200,  11:22:36 AM
Watchful heck! I just wanted to switch to the OEX trades if you are going to get 100 point swing trades but those 100 point stop losses had me worried.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:21:52 AM
The 60-minute OEX 5(3)3 and 21(3)3 stochastics now show bearish kisses, although they haven't yet fully rolled down. RSI has turned down. ADX is high enough that we may not be able to trust those oscillators, however, and that hourly trend that the ADX had been measuring was a rising one, so there's some danger here. The OEX now rests at the midline support between the 60-minute Bollinger bands. A strong index will rebound from the midline. A weaker one will retrace all the way to the bottom Bollinger band, which currently measures 491.67. Let's see whether the OEX is a stronger or a weaker index and whether that ADX or those stochastics are telling the real tale. Of course, either ADX or the stochastics will soon change to fit the action if we get a sustained move.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  11:19:14 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:13:21 AM
Jim caught a mistake in my 10:36 entry. Scrambling to get an entry typed before Comcast shut me down again, I typed 596 when I meant 496. That entry has been corrected. Thanks for being so watchful, Jim.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  11:09:59 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 501.75. I'm having difficulty downloading the chart I wanted to show this morning, but the OEX came up this morning to test the violated ascending trendline off the lows since July 1. It failed from that trendline, showing that the trendline continues to be significant. That trendline now crosses at about 501.25, so we're giving the OEX a little leeway above it with our stop. Although this may be a daytrade, it's not intended to be, and so we don't want to be stopped out on a minor bounce with a too-tight stop. We're near our first target, however, and should expect a bounce.

This level represents historical support/resistance and the bottom of the 30-minute regression channel that has been supporting OEX prices since August 6. Conservative traders might consider exiting all or partial positions at the current level, but the Swing Trade model still remains open.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  10:58:41 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 502.50. Chart to follow. Aggressive traders could lower to 503.25 instead.

Jeff and others had problems with Comcast yesterday. I'm having difficulties today. If I've disappeared and the OEX is moving, be prepared to lower your own stops accordingly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  10:37:46 AM
S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 303.73 -0.38% ... fractional weakness here, but traders will not morning tick high was 305.42, where we looked at WEEKLY R1 of 305.4 and DAILY R1 of 305.83 as early point of resistance if YIELDS were higher in last night's Index Trader Wrap. That certainly looks to be in play this morning.

While it makes more sense that homebuilders might be under pressure, banks are perhaps better read on the SPX/OEX and impact of higher YIELD, as it relates to equity investor perception of this dynamic that is unfolding.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  10:36:47 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Conservative traders should make a decision ahead of time about whether they want to exit some or all of their positions at OEX 496-496.50. It's possible that this level could be hit and then the OEX could bounce quickly. Know ahead of time how you intend to treat this level. The Swing Trade Model will not be exiting automatically unless I see something develop that I'm not yet seeing. This is opex week, however, and anything can happen.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  10:33:16 AM
Weekly Jobless Claims will be released tomorrow morning (consensus is 393,000), and with the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) now higher by 16.1 bp at 4.518%, great focus will once again be placed on jobless claims.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  10:30:24 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 988.96 -0.14% ... sitting right here at WEEKLY R1. Here's an intra-day chart on 5-minute bars.Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  10:28:42 AM
With support holding, the upside test continues on the OEX. Meanwhile, volume patterns show advancers leading decliners slightly on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, and up volume also leading on the Nasdaq. Up and down volume remain roughly equal on the NYSE.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  10:20:23 AM
10-year YIELD Chart ($TNX.X) posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  10:16:05 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I mentioned our first target of OEX 496 this morning. Our second target is 493.50-494.50. I would like to stay in for a test of 492, but we'll have to see if the OEX cooperates. Like Jim's Momentum Model on the Futures Monitor, the Swing Trade Model is meant to capture bigger swings from resistance to support or vice versa, and so I don't want us stopped out too soon on what could be a bigger downside move. If we were daytrading OEX options, a difficult task, we would of course be setting tighter stops.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  10:11:18 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We're coming to the end of the first reversal period, one that usually occurs between 9:50 and 10:10. So far, the OEX has held next support, and if that continues, we can probably expect at least a tepid attempt at a trial for the day's high again. Here's where our play probably comes up against its greatest danger, although I've anticipated that we might get that test since we entered the play. So far, early volume patterns are mixed, but trading is so light that it wouldn't give us much direction anyway. That's a reason for not lowering our stop too soon, however, as a single buy program could run a too-tight stop just before the OEX dropped again. We'll hope instead that the current test of support results in that support giving way.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  10:05:31 AM
June Business Inventories rose 0.1% in June, compared to economists' forecast of 0.1% decline. As it relates to inventory comparison with consensus, this report would be slight negative as for sign of stronger demand, would look for inventory decline. As Jonathan posted in futures monitor, sales were up 1.1% in June, and that is a positive.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  10:01:28 AM
The OEX has bounced at historical S/R and at the neckline of the possible reverse rough H&S, as seen on the 30-minute chart. The OEX moved through this neckline yesterday afternoon, but is now threatening to fall back below it again. Currently, that neckline crosses at about 497.60, depending on how it's drawn, but it slopes slightly upward and so will be rising during the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  9:56:53 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 503.75. Conservative traders might want to begin taking partial profits as/if the OEX approaches 496-496.50. I'll start lowering stops as we approach that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  9:53:05 AM
The best (worst?) time for a possible OEX bounce might be between 496.50 and 497.50, a zone we're now approaching.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  9:51:07 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I was too busy watching for a short/put entry this morning to calculate a 50% retracement for the first five-minute OEX range, but that first candle was a high-wave candle with a short body anyway. So far, this trade is working well, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the highs tested again. I'm giving this a few minutes and then will start lowering the stop, but I don't like to do it too soon, before the early morning volatility has settled down some. Conservative traders could consider a stop at 503.60 if they're uncomfortable with the current wide stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  9:45:17 AM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 348.49 (unch) .... to add just a little to this morning's 09:00 Update. The ex-auto's for July was up 0.8%, compared to the revised 0.7% gain in June. The more notable jump in total sales looks to be what we discussed a couple of weeks ago in an Index Trader Wrap, where consumers that had witnessed higher mortgage rates with the move up in Treasury YIELDS, might have been more eager to take advantage of 0% financing, while it is still being offered.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  9:41:45 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 504.50. This stop is at least partially based on this formation on this 60-minute OEX chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  9:39:28 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 990.77 +0.04% .... fractional gains here, and I think higher YIELD pressures a bit here. Would be looking short on decline back below WEEKLY R1, though I've already profiled bearish trade from 979 on Monday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  9:36:46 AM
10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) higher by 11 basis points at 4.467% and I view this as near-term negative building for stocks.

PHLX Housing Index (HGX.X) 290.25 -0.48% and Dow Jones Home Construction Index (DJUSHB) 430.67 -1.04% look to be first sectors taking note.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  9:36:21 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Enter short/put the OEX at the current level, with a stop at 505 and a first target of 496. The OEX is at the very top of the regression channel that's been containing its prices since August 6. While it could continue to climb that regression channel for a few points, the next big move should be down toward the bottom of the channel.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  9:32:20 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm waiting a few minutes, hoping to see the OEX continue its climb high enough that we have a safe short/put entry with a clear-cut stop, but be prepared to consider a short/put entry. I would not advise August options.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/13/200,  9:22:14 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  9:16:32 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Swing Trade Model is flat today. Futures appear to show that the OEX will open up today. Although this chart is messy and hard to decipher, it depicts the resistance offered near OEX 502-504 by the Bollinger bands, the descending regression channel, and historical resistance. Most likely, we'll be watching for a move toward that level and a short/put opportunity, although we'll also be watching for a signs that our next entry should be a long entry. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/13/200,  7:34:30 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei performed strongly Wednesday, leaping up almost 150 points in the morning session and then building on those gains in the afternoon. The Nikkei closed up 187.94 points or 1.96%, at 9752.75. Exporters climbed, still gaining after yesterday's report showed exports climbing one percent in Q2 as compared to the previous quarter. Trend Micro (TMIC), an anti-virus software manufacturer, jumped after news of the Lovsan virus began circulating. The bank UFJ Holdings gained after its earnings announcement revealed that bad loans had decreased during the previous quarter. Steel companies gained after Tuesday's better-than-expected GDP number and Friday's better-than-expected machinery orders number.

Other Asian bourses climbed, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained a spectacular 3.56%. South Korea's Kospi gained 1.68%, and Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.78%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.15%. China's Shanghai Composite was one of the few Asian losers, dropping 0.91%.

Most European bourses trade up, too, but more modestly. Tech stocks gained. Auto stocks also gained, but may have been rebounding after recent losses. Swiss banking group UBS dropped after offering a cautious outlook on the next quarter, saying that although it believed the worst was behind the industry, UBS's revenue could dip through the rest of the year. Marketwatch.com reported this morning that German bank regulators were meeting with ten or more German banks, attending supervisory board meetings. German truck maker and engineering group Man shared a better outlook, however, reporting earnings that were slightly higher than predictions but saying that it sees an upward trend in the commercial vehicles and printing machines divisions, with orders increasing.

As of this writing, the FTSE trades up 15.80 points or 0.38%. The CAC 40 trades up 18.50 points or 0.58%. The DAX has climbed 35.97 points or 1.06%, to 3417.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  1:37:15 AM
Correction to this evening's Index Wrap regarding call selling and put buying. I wrote ".... institutions might look to sell 405 calls..." I meant to write "... institutions migh look to sell 505 calls....".

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/12/200,  1:37:04 AM
Pivot Analysis Matrix for Wednesday posted at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   8/12/200,  1:36:52 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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