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  Mark Phillips   8/18/200,  4:05:39 PM
Wow, Did someone offer Saddam's head on Ebay? With 2 weeks to the split any thoughts on level its going to?

Sadly, I've been unable to access my charts for the past several hours, but looking at the quote on my broker applet, I can see that EBAY had a stellar day, vaulting higher by nearly 5% today! I guess that breakout over $104 at the open this morning was the real deal. As noted in the OI Call writeup, our initial pre-split target is $110, with an ultimate objective of $115 to retest the recent highs. At the rate the stock climbed today, that upper target could be hit on Wednesday!! Still the king of both the Internet sector, EBAY showed again why it is a favorite of the momentum bulls and the bane of many a bruised and bloodied bear.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  4:01:54 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I seem to be specializing in entries at stable OEX levels. My reasons for entering the trade remain and so I'll be adhering to the plan, but tomorrow morning's economic numbers make this even more dangerous. Conservative traders might want to exit now.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  3:46:08 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Unless stopped out and unless I something occurs to change my mind before the close today, we will be keeping the trade open overnight.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  3:39:44 PM
I've had readers writing me about the VIX today. As Jonathan warned earlier today, the VIX could be breaking through support, which means that it might establish a new and lower trading range while the OEX climbs. If it's signaling what it usually signals when it hits this level--a relative top in the markets--then remember that it sometimes hits its low days before or after the markets hit a top. You can't trade on the VIX alone, or any of the other volatility indices. They're signaling dangerous conditions right now, but perhaps just as dangerous to bears as to bulls. We're at a turning point. For most of the summer, the OEX and other indices have turned down at or near these levels, so we took our risks with the Swing Trade Model. While I went with a bearish trade because that's what's been working at this level and because of the VIX and other indicators, I can see the possibility for another leg up, too.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  3:33:49 PM
Mark mentioned today that 9323 number for the Dow, with a close over that level being that being a new relative closing high for the index. The 6/17 close was 9323. Remember that Dow theory watches closing levels and not intraday levels. Still, unless there's a cascading plummet this afternoon, which appears unlikely at this juncture, it looks as if the Dow will close over 9323. If so, you'll be hearing a lot about it on CNBC this evening.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  3:11:02 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are short/put the OEX from OEX 502.38, with individual traders having chosen appropriate strikes and expirations for their own trading style. Our stop is 506.50. Our target is 497.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  3:08:38 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Okay, it's finally time to give this a go. Enter short/put at the current OEX level, with a stop at 506.50. Enter only if you feel comfortable weathering that possible push up to 506.50, with the possibility of being stopped out at that level.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  3:00:40 PM
OEX 30-minute candles have been showing some sign of hesitation as the afternoon grows on. Either they're small-bodied candle, have upper shadows, or are spinning tops. Each is indicative of indecision about driving the OEX higher. That indecision could be resolved either by a push higher or a decline, with the candles not predicting the most likely outcome. Some oscillators are getting toppy, but with ADX above 30 on both the 30-minute and the 60-minute charts, those oscillators aren't reliable. A downturn could mean more consolidation only. We'll have to watch price.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  2:45:51 PM
NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) $31.88 +2.17% .... intra-day chart has QQQ breaking above and out of my downward regression channel, and now tests lower end of "old" upward regression channel. Current trade is about $0.12 more bullish than the triangle of checkered resistance I was looking at last week.

Daily interval and 60-minute interval stochastics all "overbought" here and if we're going to see sellers show up, this would be the opportune time to be looking for it.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  2:40:01 PM
The OEX now challenges the violated ascending trendline off the July 1 low. The OEX fell through this trendline on August 1, and came up to test it again on August 13 before falling back. Will it be successful in moving above it this time?

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  2:31:09 PM
The OEX keeps popping up, then settling back in a bull flag, then breaking out again. I wouldn't be surprised to get that higher 504-506 entry, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that entry occur tomorrow or even later in the week. I'm sorry now that I didn't follow my inclination to go long this morning, but I was determined that the Swing Trade Model wasn't going to be trading from the middle of congestion to the outside of the trading range this week, but rather from one side of the range to the other.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  2:29:15 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 412.59 +4.58% ... just sets 52-week high at session high of 412.69.

Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) $33.93 +4.4% set 52-week high earlier this morning with trade at $33.20.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  2:25:09 PM
At 19.41 as I type, the VIX has just moved off the day's low. It's also near the lows produced at notable market tops. There's nothing to prevent the VIX from making new lows, however, and it should be noted that the VIX sometimes reaches its relative lows either days before or days after a new relative high on the OEX.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  2:16:49 PM
S&P futures (sp03u) I'm 10-minute delayed, but I had to get out of bed at 02:00 AM EST this morning as I had alert on S&P futures set at 992.00, which was just above my "fitted" retracmenet of 991.40. (computer/q-charts alert kept saying... "attention, an alert target has been reached." )

Close above 991.40 today lends to upside at 1,010.51, with support back at 972.30.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  2:16:35 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Will we get our 504-506 entry? Perhaps.

Our big problem for any short/put Index trade is the strength being displayed by the semis. News this morning out of Asia was that many semis are collaborating with Stanford to produce a chip that's two generations ahead of the current chip. TSM and TXN, two of the companies involved, are each up more than 2.5% today, with the SOX up almost 4.5%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  2:14:04 PM
New High/New Lows

02:00 PM EST internals have NYSE showing 216 new highs vs. 29 new lows, which would have the current daily ration at 88.2%, but more importantly, the 10-day moving average at 73.6%, which would be enough for a reversal back up to "bull confirmed" type status, depicting that of renewed bullish leadership. Today's 216 new highs is highest amount since July 15 233:14 ratio, when 10-day average was 97.2%.

This gives me near-term impression that MONTHLY pivot of 990 becomes a near-term type of technical support on SPX.

NASDAQ 02:00 NH/NL is 210:6. Just recently, (Aug. 11), the NASDAQ 10-day NH/NL reversed lower to a "bull correction" type status at 92.0%. Taking current daily NH/NL, 10-day starts to improve from Thursday's 90.1% reading to 91.0%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  1:56:52 PM
Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) $13.18 +2.5% Link .... upped to "buy" from "hold" at TD Newcrest as firm raises price target to $16.50 from $15.00. Firm saying rating change is based on view that certain fuel cell stocks stand to benefit from enhanced spending on backup power and distributed generation.

Earlier this morning, TD Newcrest also upped FuelCell Energy (FCEL) $9.58 +1.9% to "buy" with price target raised to $13 from $7.00. Link

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  1:53:51 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Our new just-in-case entry is to short/put the OEX on a move below 501.50, with a stop at 505.50, but I hope to get one more push up for a higher entry. Our initial target will be 497, but we'll have to be careful near 500.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  1:50:11 PM
Swing Trade Signals
As I mentioned this morning, I wanted to see the OEX hover at its highs for several hours before we entered a short/put trade. We've gotten that occurrence. I'd also like to see a push toward 504-506 to give us an even stronger entry. I had hoped that the afternoon push would accomplish that goal for us, but it hasn't yet. The end-of-day action may do so. However, my other goal was to keep us from sitting in a trade that was going nowhere for hours, and I'm glad we've done that. Our entry may be coming soon now, however.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  1:30:34 PM
It will soon be time for that afternoon push that we almost always get between 1:35-1:55. It's always difficult to guess whether the push will be toward next strong resistance or next strong support.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  1:00:04 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I don't want to enter in front of the housing data, but will be looking seriously at a short/put entry after the number is released. Anyone considering participating should be prepared to ride out a possible pop up to 504-506.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  12:41:02 PM
Speaking of Bollinger bands on daily charts, the SOX has pierced its upper Bollinger band, also breaking to the upside of a bull flag pattern and moving above 400. The SOX had inched out of that bull flag pattern last week, but only barely. Today's climb takes the SOX above the 7/15 high of 408.80, the high as the SOX began pulling back into that bull flag, but not above the 6/6 high of 412.66. Currently the SOX is at 411.22. A move above the July 15 high before the bull flag began forming is bullish, as many issues have broken out of bull flags lately only to then form a double top. However, the SOX needs to break above that June 6 high before it's out of danger of a double top.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  12:32:20 PM
China disallows purchasing of foreign software ... CNET reporting that China's government has just issued new policy which states all government ministries are required to purchase locally produced software at the next upgrade cycle. This move would eliminate Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) $25.63 +0.35% Windows operating system and its Office productivity suite from "hundreds of thousands of Chinese government computers over the next few years." A Chinese government official with the Procurement Center for the State Council told reporters this policy would be in place by year's end.

Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) $12.13 +0.41%

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  12:28:28 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX now nears the top Bollinger band on its daily chart, with that top Bollinger band currently at 504.92. While issues can and do climb an ascending Bollinger band, this one isn't ascending. It's flat. While issues can and do pierce the Bollinger band when it's flat, the candles themselves usually fall below them. Since mid-June, the OEX has usually approached no closer than 1.50 points to its upper Bollinger band before turning back. I still would like to see a higher push before we enter short/put, but I'm considering an entry near the current level, allowing us to weather that test up toward 506, a test that participants should be prepared to see this afternoon and maybe even into tomorrow.

This is scary, but I've found in the past that my best trades occur not in the heat of battle, but when I follow the trade plan I made on the weekend before or the night before, and that plan this weekend was to wait for the OEX to push up to 502-504, which I thought it would likely do, and then enter a short/put trade. Now, although the OEX is doing exactly what I thought it would do, I find myself second-guessing that decision. I'm thinking, no, wait, I should wait now until it falls to support and go long. That's a heat-of-the-battle decision, though. If we do enter this trade, we will be waiting for a sign that it's time to get out and go long at support, however.

  Mark Phillips   8/18/200,  12:18:03 PM
PCAR $83.28 (+1.64) Like the Energizer Bunny, PCAR keeps going and going. As mentioned in one of last week's updates, a trade in the $82-83 area seemed a good point to harvest some gains on this bullish OI play, as that is up significantly from our $77.24 picked price. The stock has been hugging its upper Bollinger band, which continues to be pressed higher by the very bullish price action. With the 10-dma now rising to $79.25, I feel the $79 level is the widest stop that should be considered, as that still builds in more than $4 of risk from current levels. More conservative traders should be harvesting gains here or on the first sign of weakness, which would come on a drop back under $82, a level that provided solid intraday support after the initial surge higher.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  12:16:51 PM
On the OEX 30-minute chart, the CCI has actually been trending down while the OEX climbs. On the 60-minute, the CCI has hooked over, but not actually begun to roll down yet.

  Mark Phillips   8/18/200,  12:09:41 PM
As I noted in my weekend LEAPS commentary, as of last Friday, the DOW had stubbornly refused to close above the June 17th 9323 closing high, which has kept Dow Theory fans in a "show me" mode. Today's breakout over that level and trade of 9400 turns things decidedly more bullish and a positive close for the Dow virtually assures that we finally get that bullish confirmation of both the INDU and TRAN closing at new highs. Now that I've noted this confirmation, the market will probably take the opportunity to reverse at the end of the day just to make sure I'm wearing plenty of egg on my face! GRIN

Of course, the problem with this confirmation is the extreme complacency seen in the volatility indices. I'm sure others have commented on it this morning, but as I'm having a hard time getting my MM applet to run, I can't confirm that. At any rate, the VIX is currently hitting 19.40, a new intraday low and its lowest reading since late March of last year. When the VIX is this low, it is rarely a good time to be loading up on bullish positions. Despite the encouraging breakout in the DOW, with the SPX challenging the 1000 level, I find it very difficult to get interested in the long side of this market.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  12:07:23 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's withdraw our just-in-case entry. We'll be watching now for a move up toward 504-508 before making an entry. Wish I'd known for sure we'd have gotten that higher entry and followed through with my inclination for a long trade this morning, but 500/502/504 all seemed possible strong resistance.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  12:00:56 PM
Swing Trade Signals
It's looking as if the higher entry might be possible, so in a few minutes, I'm going to withdraw my "just in case" entry. I'm also watching parameters for signs that we should be buying dips rather than selling resistance.

  Mark Phillips   8/18/200,  12:00:45 PM
EBAY $106.16 (+3.09) Momentum traders are active today, bidding shares of EBAY higher by nearly 3% and we may be looking at the beginning of that split run we've been expecting. Currently on the OI Call list, EBAY looked like a good momentum entry on a break above $104, and that certainly seems to have been the case this morning, as the stock's early move through that level generated plenty of buying volume. Price has now moved through the 20-dma ($106.02, as well as the 50-dma ($106.06). At a minimum, stops should now be raised to just below the ascending trendline ($101.15) and our official stop now goes to $101.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  11:47:03 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 97.37 +0.74% ... dollar is having a strong session today, and has the look of foreign capital rotating to U.S. and perhaps strongest economic prospects of major global economies at this point.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  11:45:02 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I would really like to see the OEX try for 504-506 before our entry, as I think it possible we could see a push toward that level. I'm just not sure how likely I think that eventuality will be.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  11:35:05 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  11:34:09 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Here's our "just in case" entry. Enter short/put with the OEX put strike and expiration of your choice on an OEX trade below 500.50. I'd like to see another push up first, but we may not get it. The stop will be 504.50.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  11:24:03 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Based on this chart and others, I'd like to enter a short/put trade on the OEX at the current level, with a stop at 506, but I really would prefer to wait until the OEX had hovered at this level for an hour or two, expending bullish energy. Right now, the current five-minute pattern looks a lot like a bull flag developing after the recent climb, so I'd certainly like to wait out the outcome of that possible bull flag. Link

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  11:02:40 AM
There was barely a pullback at all after the latest OEX pause, much less a pullback to the 50% retracement of 10:10-10:45 move. That says there's still a lot of bullishness in the market. This morning, I considered a long Swing Trade (yes, I do trade long, too), but I kept looking at those multiple levels of resistance ahead across multiple charts and decided to wait until the OEX was at the top of its range and then trade short/put again if that appeared appropriate. If that's going to be our tactic, however, we need to be as high as possible, to give us solid stops.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:56:50 AM
The 50% retracement of the 10:10-10:45 climb lies near 500.75. The OEX should not fall below or sustain levels below that number now if the bullish case is to be preserved.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:48:42 AM
The OEX now touches this resistance, with this regression channel resistance having held since the middle of July: Link

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:45:43 AM
There's the new OEX high of the day.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:44:38 AM
No new high of the day for the OEX as yet, although the five-minute chart could be showing an early "p" accumulation or bull-flag pattern developing after the latest rise.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  10:36:03 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,370 +0.5% .... looks to challenge the 9,400 level once again. If traded, should provide solid support back at 9,000 (psychological and technical). Link

General Electric (GE) $29.50 +2.5% Link is component gainer. Wall Street Journal reported this morning that French conglomerate Vivendi (V) $16.91 -3.3% isn't likely to get its $14 billion asking price for its media assets. Wall Street Journaly reports that Vivendi Chairman Jean-Rene Fourtou preferred deal is with GE, which has proposed combining Vivendi's Universal business with its NBC unit, with another possible deal with Viacom (VIA) $43.30 +0.6%, or an investor group led by Edgar Bronfman Jr.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  10:32:51 AM
SPS Technology (ST) $44.54 +29.94% Link ... Signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by Precision Castparts (PCP) $34.42 +4.4% Link for approximately $43.78 per share.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:23:43 AM
So far, the OEX 499.50 support held, with this support being the 50% retracement of the first five-minute range. Now the OEX should retest the day's high. A failure to move above that high might set up some sort of consolidation pattern such as a neutral triangle or a "p" distribution pattern, or even some sort of reversal pattern. Either way, we might have more information about whether an upside breakout or a reversal down from resistance would be most likely. Let's watch.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:14:36 AM
The OEX now tests Friday's high at 499.42.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  10:14:11 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 304.69 -0.01% .... unchanged here, with the KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 882.08 -0.23% and Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 567.20 -0.28% slightly weak. SPX/OEX may have tough time getting further upside from here if financials get stuck here, or head lower.

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 992.93 +0.23%, S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 499.55 +0.25%.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:11:05 AM
The OEX currently tests that 50% retracement of the first five-minute range.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  10:10:33 AM
Although volume was still extremely light as of a few minutes ago, that volume had a bullish cast, with adv:dec ratios at 18:8 for the NYSE and 15:10 for the Nasdaq. Up volume far exceeded down volume, but these early volume patterns can be distorted, and I'd think they'd be particularly distorted after Friday's power outage and options expiration activities. I wouldn't count on that as my major impulse for moving one direction or the other in decision-making this morning.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  9:54:09 AM
The OEX currently tests this green line, with an upside break hinting at a move up to 508-510, but a failure hinting at a move down toward 485: Link

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  9:50:40 AM
The OEX moves closer to testing this resistance: Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  9:48:53 AM
Sectors broadly positive in early going with only the Utility Index (UTY.X) 271.68 -0.77% and Gold/Silver Index (XAU.X) 86.47 -1.26% showing losses.

Sector strength early has Semiconductor (SOX.X) 400.8 +1.59%, Internet (INX.X) 138.8 +1.55%, Oil Service (OSX.X) 89.94 +1.1%, Retail (RLX.X) 354 +1.06%.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  9:45:39 AM
So far, the OEX is holding above a 50% retracement of the first five-minute range. In fact, it held fairly close to the 38.2% retracement of the first five-minute range, and now has achieved a new daily high. My charts show various chart formations and resistance levels. Some show the OEX currently testing trendlines and some show a distance to go before the respective trendlines are tested, so the opinion is mixed about whether the OEX is now testing breakout levels or has a point or two to go before it does. An upside breakout of the various levels might predict a move up to OEX 504 and then 507.50.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  9:37:01 AM
The OEX first five-minute candle did span a larger-than-normal range, and so it might be important to watch retracement levels as well as the gap level. The 50% retracement of the first five-minute OEX range lies at 499.50. Bulls want to see that level sustained during the first reversal that usually occurs in a few minutes. Bears want to see the opposite, but bears will then face gap support below from Friday's close at 498.11 to this morning's open at 498.74.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  9:33:18 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 993.31 +0.26% .... first "zone of resistance" would look to be the 997.10-997.38 area. SPX Chart with new WEEKLY pivot retracemetn at this Link

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 304.84 +0.02%

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  9:23:40 AM
Pivot Matrix posted at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  9:19:20 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  9:06:39 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Swing Trade Model is flat this morning. Daily, hourly, and five-minute OEX charts all show the OEX currently in the middle of its range. The daily chart depicts a possible bull flag, with the OEX sitting on the midline S/R. The hourly chart shows the index sitting just above the mid-line average of its Bollinger bands. The five-minute chart depicts the OEX sitting just above the midline of the trading range it began establishing Thursday morning. Late last week, I'd been trying to catch a move from the midline S/R to the outside of the range. Let's wait this week for a bigger movement.

  Linda Piazza   8/18/200,  7:55:54 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei managed a close over 10,000, closing up 169.50 points or 1.72%, at 10,032.97, about 16 points under the day's high. This was the index's highest close since last August 26. The index opened up 139 points, just over the 10,000 mark at 10,002, but soon fell below 10,000, not climbing back above that level until the afternoon session.

While retailers lost ground in early trading after Japanese retailer Aeon Co. cut its full-year forecast, exporters gained. Toshiba announced that it and seven semi-related companies are collaborating with Stanford University to develop chips with circuit widths around 32-45 nanometers, down from the current widths of 130 nm. News articles tag this new technology as being two generations ahead of the present level. Toshiba gained more than 5 percent in the day's trading. Two developments helped steel manufacturers. Steelmaker JFE Holdings raised its forecast, and Standard and Poor's said that the firm expected the credit quality of Japan's biggest steelmakers to progress as their earnings and cash flow improve and debt is reduced. %. However, although not many details are available as this report is prepared, a moderate earthquake, measuring 4.7 magnitude, has hit the Tokyo region. It is not yet known how that earthquake might impact tomorrow's trading.

With the exception of China, dropping 0.35%, and Indonesia's market, closed for the day, other Asian bourses climbed, too. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.51%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.43%. Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.75%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.96

European markets are mixed this morning, however. With no economic news due, attention focuses on specific stocks or sectors. In Germany, for example, insurers gain after insurer Allianz reduced its stake in chemical maker BASF AG. Germany's Bayer, a drugmaker, gains after the company announced regulatory approval in Canada to market a drug for immune deficiency. In the U.K. Lloyds TSB Group, NMT Group, and Vodafone are the most active, with Lloyd's flat but the others climbing modestly.

As of this writing just after 7:00 a.m. ET, the FTSE 100 was flat, up a minimal 2.10 points or 0.05%, at 4249.40. The CAC 40 was down 6.83 points or 0.21%, at 3272.38. The DAX traded up 18.01 points or 0.52%, at 3461.94.

  OI Technical Staff   8/17/200,  8:53:33 PM
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