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  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:54:08 PM
Pivot Matrix posted at this Link

  Jim Brown   8/19/200,  6:54:59 PM
Semi Book-to-bill for July was .97 compared to .93 in June.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  5:32:06 PM
Photronics (PLAB) $18.98 +2.15% Link ... higher at $19.80 after reporting Q3 (July) earnings of $0.07 per share (excludes charge of $0.03 per share for debt retirement), which was 7 cents better than consensus estimates. PLAB said revenues fell 7.8% year-over-year to $90.5 million, but was still above consensus estimates for $88.9 million.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  4:15:16 PM
Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $22.11 -0.09% ... halted news pending. (earnings)

Smart move considering some of the wild after-hours trade we've seen among technology stocks when the headline number prints and after-hours traders jump to the conclusion.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  4:01:16 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were just stopped out of our OEX trade with an OEX trade above 503.75. We entered yesterday when the OEX traded 502.38. We sustained a 1.37 OEX move against us.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:58:52 PM
QQQ $32.30 +1.06% ... into the 04:00 PM EST hour, QQQ challenging the 07/31/03 relative high of $32.33.

Getting several questions regarding holding bullish positions over the HPQ earnings, and my thoughts are to simply keep position size at a comfortable level, where a traders can take $0.50 to $1.00 per share downside heat in after-hours type of trade.

The only after-hours trade I would look for is to sell long on any type of after-hours spike back near $32.75 and QQQ 52-week high of 07/14/03.

  Mark Phillips   8/19/200,  3:57:56 PM
Closing Notes on the OI Playlist

EBAY $110.20 (+1.94) Going out just above the $110 level. I still think conservative traders should be harvesting gains here near the close, looking for a potential re-entry on a pullback. We'll be rasing our stop tonight to $106, just below the 50-dma.

PCAR $85.16 (+1.10) We noted in last night's Play of the Day writeup that a move into the $85-86 area looked like a good opportunity to harvest gains on this winning play, and here we are near the lower end of the range. PCAR moved sharply higher at the open and gradually build on those gains into the close. I still favor locking in gains here and looking for a potential re-entry on a pullback later in the week.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:50:19 PM
There's a doji sitting high at the top of the Dow's rally, too.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:48:58 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Something is changing by the end of the day, but that change so far is just changing that near-doji on the OEX daily chart into an actual doji. As long as that's all that occurs, I'm still inclined to stay in the trade, but we may be stopped out anyway.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:48:00 PM
PHLX Housing Index (HGX.X) 299.47 +1.86% .... upside alert here at 52-week high.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:46:14 PM
The OEX is back to the 502.75 level that had been intraday S/R this morning.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:41:47 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Do we stay in this trade overnight? If nothing big happens before today's close, today's candle is a spinning top--a near doji--sitting at the top of a climb. That's a potential reversal signal, but it must be confirmed by tomorrow's trading. As I scan the trading from mid-June on, I see several similar candles sitting at the top of the range before the OEX turned down again (sometimes a day or two before, though), but that's not proof that tomorrow or Thursday the markets will turn down. On the 60-minute chart, the 5(3)3 stochastics have already cycled down to levels indicating oversold markets and made a bullish kiss. Still, it doesn't take a cracker-jack technical analyst to look at that hourly chart and see the "rolling over" look to the index. It may roll over and it may not, but the potential still exits, just as it did when we entered the trade. I'm inclined to stay in the trade unless we're stopped out, but conservative traders might want to exit this afternoon.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  3:36:43 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:27:37 PM
Well, we have some volatility today, and it's not boring.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:18:04 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 503.75.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:16:24 PM
So far, we have an inside candle or harami on the current 30-minute candle. If this continues for the next fifteen minutes, we'll have to look to the next candle to show ultimate direction. Since the previous candle sprang up from support, however, I'm giving this a slightly bullish interpretation.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  3:00:09 PM
So far, this OEX rise could be a bear flag after the quick plummet, but that's not a given yet.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:50:48 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I show support from a very rough reverse H&S neckline (August 1-12 or so) at 499. In addition, the 30-minute 100-pma lies just below that, at 498.32. The 50-dma lies at 498.57. A fall through 498.30, then, would be a bearish development and would get us past next strong support, but it may be difficult to push the OEX past that level. We may need to be careful here.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:43:53 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 504.25. I don't want to ease it down too quickly, but will be considering a lower stop soon.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:41:27 PM

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:40:13 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Finally a new low for the OEX. We're right at that 500.80 level that's been strong S/R in the past, however. We'll need to watch carefully here, and I'll be considering a tightened stop in a few minutes.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:30:09 PM
As of a few minutes ago, advancers still led decliners, with 19:13 and 18:13 ratios on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively. Earlier today, up volume was twice down volume on the NYSE and more than three times down volume on the Nasdaq. That has moderated to 1.7 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.3 times down volume on the Nasdaq. That's still too bullish for our OEX Swing Trade, but less bullish than it was earlier. I think the indices are going to have to violate that support before these patterns change significantly. Instead of volume leading price, this may be a day when price is going to have to lead volume. Total volume was 862 million on the NYSE and 1.2 billion on the Nasdaq.

  Mark Phillips   8/19/200,  2:27:17 PM
Reader Question: Hi Mark, Looking at put leap on AMZN with a stop loss of 45.25, Trade at 45 would confirm triple top breakout on 3 box reversal, but if it doesn't make it would be failed triple top. Weekly stoch and MACD showing overbought. Thoughts? Thanks

Answer: If I had a nickel for every time I had been burned by trying to pick a top in the Internet stocks...Readers that have been with us awhile will remember earlier this year when I tried to pick a top in AMZN near $34-35. Needless to say, that didn't work out too well. But letting bygones, be bygones, let's see what the charts have to say.

Looking first at the PnF chart Link we can see that the stock has given one Buy signal after another, without a single Sell since last August. No matter how I look at it, the stock looks very extended, but I see no signs of weakness. Looking at the candle chart shows the same strength as well, with price being confined to an aggressive ascending channel since February and the pattern of higher highs and higher lows still intact. Link

Even looking at the weekly chart, I don't really see anything compelling, other than what looks like strong resistance near $45. After turning down, weekly Stochastics have turned back up and are once again nearing overbought. Make no mistake, I think this stock is a pig and valued at about 20 times what it is actually worth. But as we all know, the market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent. In order to give a solid sell signal on the price chart, AMZN would need to trade under $39 to break that ascending channel. It would take even greater weakness to generate a PnF Sell signal, as that would require AMZN to trade $38. As long as the market remains in what I think is its irrational mood, this does not appear to be a favorable play, even over the long term until it can at least trace out a lower high and a lower low.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  2:22:57 PM
If Jonathan posted a picture of me waiting for this trade to work, he'd have to find a picture of a sloth, hanging upside down on a limb, fingernails dug in.

  Mark Phillips   8/19/200,  2:08:13 PM
Reader Question: Where do you see PAAS going if it hits 10.00? What would the vertical count be on the PFn chart? Thanks.

Answer: Ah, precious metals stocks. Pan American Silver (PAAS) has had a pretty impressive run over the past month and it threatening to break out to new all time highs. That makes it tough to gauge targets from the price chart, but the good old PnF chart provides an answer. Link The current vertical count (bullish price target) was generated with the breakout over $7.50 last December and that target is currently $15.25.. The real bullish trigger for new entries came with the bullish breakout of the neutral triangle pattern when the stock pushed throught the $8 level. An optimistic entry target at this point would be for a pullback and rebound from the $8.00-8.25 area, as a rebound from there would confirm new support at old resistance. A more realistic entry target would be on a pullback near $8.75, which turned out to be strong resistance on the May-July 2002 timeframe.

Like gold stocks, those of the silver flavor are also in a primary bull market, but I believe in the early stages of such. That $15.25 target is probably achievable following that breakout over $10, but I wouldn't look for it to be a rapid rise.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:55:57 PM
The OEX nears the day's low again, with the 1:45 push being a push to the downside to test support. If support gives way and the OEX doesn't bounce back, market participants know one thing. If support holds or if it gives way and the OEX immediately bounces, market participants know something different. So far, it's holding.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  1:53:10 PM
Pan American Silver (PAAS) $9.73 +2.95% Link ... Where do you see PAAS going if it hits 10.00? What would the vertical count be on the PFn chart? Thanks.

In December of last year at $7.50, PAAS generated a double-top buy signal and built its current bullish vertical count column ($4.75 to $8.00) of $15.25. A trade at $10.00 would have the stock breaking to a 4-year high.

According to Dorsey/Wright and Associates, PAAS has been classified as a "precious metals" stock, where we find the sector bullish % (BPPREC) currently in "bull confirmed" status at 78.95%. Sector turned "bull confirmed" in early August.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  1:46:40 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 303.35 -0.58% .... moving below its WEEKLY Pivot of 303.42 here. While it is early in the week, first equity-based sector/index to move below its WEEKLY pivot. Comes after INDU/SPX/OEX/NDX all traded their WEEKLY R1's yesterday.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:42:05 PM
There's the potential for a double bottom on the OEX five-minute chart. A move over 502.50 would confirm that double bottom, setting an upside target just shy of 503.50. While this isn't an important upside target, watching whether it confirms and then whether the target is met can be another measure of strength or weakness.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  1:40:34 PM
01:00 Update at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:27:31 PM
One technical analysis tool that's been fairly reliable lately is watching the Fibonacci retracement levels. The 13:05 OEX candle (five-minute chart) moved to an almost-exact 38.2% retracement of fall that immediately preceded it before the OEX pulled back and began the current drop. That doesn't guarantee that the OEX will fall to new lows, but it does tell us that the OEX made only a shallow retracement of the decline and didn't show much strength at that juncture.

The 1:45 push will be along any moment. I've been trying to guess whether it will be a push toward support, to test it, or toward resistance, to test that, and I can't guess. If I were an institution with enough money to move the markets, I'd sure want to know if that support was going to hold before I continued a buying program from these levels, but I don't have that kind of money and my thinking may not be anything like that institution's would be.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  1:05:47 PM
If this current five-minute OEX low sticks, the five-minute chart shows a higher low, with bullish divergence on the stochastics. (Stochs are showing a lower low.)

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:50:50 PM
The OEX appears to have come to a stop just short of the day's low. Dialing down to the one-minute chart, I see a possible bear flag forming, but we really have to get below the previous day's low before the bearish case gains much headway.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:48:54 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 303.85 -0.42% ... once again today has lagged early session bullishness. I've been looking through components looking for any stock that might be cause for lag, but can't really find one.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:35:52 PM
The OEX support from the megaphone or bullhorn or orthodox broadening formation currently lies near that 500.80 level we've discussed so much in the past, but the support from this formation is descending. According to Pring, the next move should be a breakdown anyway, although it's difficult to assess when there's been a breakdown out of a broadening formation. We've had the three rallies that formed the top line of the formation, however, and three is the typical number before a breakdown. I wouldn't count on anything being a given in this market, however. Bullish sentiment sometimes overcomes what had seemed a done deal according to chart formations.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:30:53 PM
Caterpillar (CAT) $71.97 -1.47% .... making intra-day session lows here and finds Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,399 -0.13% fractions red. Yesterday, CAT achieved/exceeded its bullish vertical count of $72 and may be subject to some profit taking. Link

Recent quarter earnings were boosted by weaker dollar, which has started to show strength in recent weeks.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:28:05 PM
The OEX just hit the 50% retracement of the day's range again, with that number being approximately 502.75.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:26:24 PM
The BIX's weakness today--it's beneath its 21-dma as I type--is countered by the SOX's strength, with the SOX soaring after an improved outlook for the semis. No wonder we can't go up and we can't go down.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:20:49 PM
The OEX plunged from the top of the regression channel I mentioned in my previous post all the way to the bottom, with a minor violation of the bottom support. It appears to be retesting that support now, however, and that violation wouldn't be confirmed until a much deeper fall.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:14:05 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX continues to climb within an upward-slanting regression channel. Although it is a tight range of higher highs and higher lows, I don't think it's a bear flag because it's already retraced too much of the previous down move. That says to me that it's probably just what it appears to be--a measured move up within the channel. However, the OEX has not yet been able to exceed the previous day's high. That broadening formation depicted on the graph linked to my 11:27 post may mean that the OEX will exceed the previous day's high as it touches that upper resistance, however, although the number of "rallies" within the broadening formation has already equaled the three that usually occur before it breaks to the downside. This trade is still a troubled one.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  12:08:49 PM
Volume patterns have stayed relatively stable and strongly bullish throughout the day. Adv:dec ratios stand at 18:13 for the NYSE and 17:12 for the Nasdaq. Up volume is about twice down volume on the NYSE and more than three times down volume on the Nasdaq. New highs vastly outnumber new lows again.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  12:05:34 PM
Amgen (AMGN) $68.39 -1.6% ... I want to buy AMGN call options. Where do you see a good entry? Do you think 67-67.50?

Some quick notes. AMGN is "biotech" and sector status is current "bear confirmed" at 55.10% (bear confirmed at 58% on August 7) so I'd be cautious on stocks within the group right now. I will also make note that AMGN recently achieved its bullish vertical count of $72, which was generated back in December (column of O from $45 to $53) Link

While stocks can exceed their bullish vertical counts, I'd take a "wait and see" approach to new bull entry on AMGN at this time. Actually, I'd almost prefer that the stock give the sell signal at $65, which then creates the opportunity for the reversal back up and new PnF buy signal for higher bullish vertical count.

I would think something in the mid-to-low $60's a good area for call buyer, where test of bullish support (blue +'s) has been good pullback areas.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  11:47:04 AM
Home Depot (HD) $32.56 -3.95% Link .... moves below its starting to round flat from trending higher 50-day SMA Link . For most part, fundamental side analysts say good quarter, but outlook flat relative to guidance given from Lowes (LOW) $52.38 +0.8% Link .

I can't say there would be anything new in this comparison. HD much more mature and many more stores that LOW. LOW still in more of a growth phase as it relates to new store openings.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  11:36:34 AM
The OEX dipped between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the climb before beginning to climb again. This minimal retracement shows strength, but must be followed by a new day's high if that strength is to be confirmed.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  11:28:35 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  11:27:58 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We now have what Pring calls an orthodox broadening formation on the OEX 30-minute chart, better known as a megaphone or bullhorn formation: Link Here's a quote from Pring: "Orthodox broadening formations as associated with market peaks rather than market troughs." In other words, they're most often reversal signals. They occasionally do not work, as Pring points out and as we've seen happen ever since March. We're hoping this one works.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  11:17:26 AM
The OEX now approaches a 38.2% retracement of the previous climb, with that retracement level at about 503.10. A strong issue will find support between a 38.2% and 50% retracement of a previous climb and then begin climbing again.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  11:07:45 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX came within one penny of the previous high of the day. Some indicators are turning back up, and the just-completed 30-minute candle is a big white candle that engulfs not only the previous candle but also the previous range. Last engulfing candle? We can only hope, but that's not a candle we want to see while in a bearish trade. We're back to watching retracements of the same range, again watching that 502.75 level that represents a 50% retracement of the day's range. Because we're in a bearish trade, we want to see bears drive the OEX below that level (and sustain those lower levels this time). I'm not so sure that will happen.

  Mark Phillips   8/19/200,  10:57:22 AM
EBAY $110.07 (+1.81) Thanks for the EBAY play. Are you guys still recommending a hard exit @110? I am new to this and it's hard to sell when it is going up this strong, but I will follow any advice.

Man, EBAY took its sweet time getting in gear, but when it decided to move, there was no hesitation! Now trading at $110, it is pretty amazing that the stock closed Friday at only $103! I think the way we've characterized this play is that $110 would be considered a conservative exit point, while aggressive traders can look for a retest of the $115 level. My approach would be to take part of the position off the table here and then let the remainder ride with a stop just under the 50-dma. If your account size and business plan dictate only single contracts (and you therefore can't exit in stages), that by definition makes you a conservative trader (in my opinion) and so the answer would be to take the hard exit at $110.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:45:49 AM
The OEX now pauses at the top of this morning's gap.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:41:37 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The potential bear flag isn't looking much like a bear flag now, with the OEX having risen above the 502.75 level at which the flag should have broken to the downside. The OEX again tests the gap S/R. I'm watching for a little while, but growing concerned about the trade.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:37:46 AM
Buy Program Prem. Alert INDU= 9,404, SPX = 999.8, OEX = 502.5, NDX = 1,290.7, QQQ = $32.07

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:35:18 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 505.50.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:31:45 AM
Is this a bear flag on the OEX five-minute chart? Could be. If so, it should break down before or near 502.75, the 50% retracement of the plummet.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:17:11 AM
S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 304.67 -0.16% ... has slipped under DAILY pivot, while major indices all holding right at or slightly above DAILY pivots.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:16:34 AM
The 50% retracement from today's current OEX high to the day's current low lies near 502.75. Now we can use that level as a benchmark to watch any consolidation, continuation, or reversal patterns that form. If they're consolidation or continuation patterns, they probably shouldn't retracement more than 50% of the drop.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:15:43 AM
Treasuries see mixed results. 30-year fractional buying as YIELD falls 3.4 bp to 5.327%, 10-year unchanged, 5-year YIELD higher by 1.8 bp to 3.375%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:14:14 AM
Sector action mixed in early going, with fractional gains/losses.

Gold/Silver (XAU.X) 87.27 +1.01% and Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 434.91 +1.08% only sectors with change of +/- 1% or more.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:12:04 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We're still doing okay, but it's going to be difficult to name a level at which the OEX won't have some sort of support just below since it's entering a congestion zone again. Of particular concern might be the 500.80 number that got mentioned so often not so long ago. That's been a strong S/R zone in the past.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:06:09 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,389 -0.24% .... session low here, testing WEEKLY R1 of 9,390.4.

Home Depot (HD) $32.70 -3.7% turned south after opening $33.91, ticking up to $34.00 then got whacked lower. Building products retailer posted Q2 (July) EPS of $0.56, which was 2 cents better than forecast, saying sales rose 10.5% year-over-year to $17.99 billion, also above consensus of $17.67. HD reaffirmed 2003 guidance of sales growth of 9%-12% and EPS growth of 9%-14%.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  10:05:09 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 998.47 -0.11% .... slight negative reaction to Univ. Michigan Sentiment, but not much. WEEKLY R1 of 997.38 yet to be tested as support.

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 304.64 -0.17% slightly red, with Bank of America (BAC) $81.35 +0.32% just sitting here.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  10:05:02 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 506. I want to give the OEX plenty of room while the initial volatility subsides, but then we'll consider tightening the stop a little, depending on what's happening with the OEX.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:59:45 AM
Swing Trade Signals
So far, so good, but we need to see the OEX beneath 502.25 support.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:57:43 AM
August University of Michigan Sentiment comes in at 90.2 compared to economists' forecast of 91.5 and July's 90.9.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:57:27 AM
Sell Program Premium Alert INDU = 9,407, SPX = 1,000.60, OEX = 502.89, NDX = 1,288.6, QQQ = $32.05.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:57:17 AM
We're seeing some volatility on the OEX as the number is released.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:55:30 AM
The OEX found support at the bottom of the gap and now rises to challenge the top of the gap again.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:47:40 AM
The OEX now tests the bottom of the gap.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:44:11 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I don't have a private line to the government offices or a psychic connection that will tell me how the markets will react to the 9:45 number. It's likely to be a market mover, so conservative traders might consider exiting ahead of that number.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:42:06 AM
Gap support will be important to watch today, too. That OEX gap this morning was from yesterday's close at 502.79 to this morning's open at 503.27. A move below yesterday's close and through the bottom of the gap would be considered a bearish development. Currently, the OEX seems to have found at least temporary support at the 70.7% retracement of the first five-minute range and is challenging the 50% retracement level from the underside.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:38:19 AM
The OEX currently retraces more than 38.2% of the first five-minute range. Yesterday, that was all it ever retraced before zooming up again.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:36:04 AM
The OEX first five-minute range spanned a larger-than-normal range, so retracement values based on that range might be important in early trading. The 50% retracement lies at 503.78. As I often mention, we can use this retracement as a measure of early trading strength or weakness, with bulls wanting to sustain numbers above that level and bears wanting to drive the OEX below that number.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:34:02 AM
The OEX has risen to test the underside of the ascending regression channel off the August 6 low, a channel it violated on the 13th. It tested the channel yesterday, too, and fell back slightly, but now seems determined to climb the outside of that channel.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:33:56 AM
Bank of America (BAC) $81.68 +0.75% ... upgraded this morning (see 09:00 Update) and opening gap comes right at its rounding lower 21-day SMA of $81.79. Rising 50-day SMA has been serving support at $80.77.

BAC could be the "swing stock" for both the BIX.X and BKX.X for traders to monitor near-term.

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  9:22:11 AM
Swing Trade Signals
We have an open short/put position, opened when the OEX traded 502.38, with a stop at 506.50. Although I do not necessarily expect the OEX to crater, this trade was based on a trade-the-range theory. That theory may be in some jeopardy as both the Dow and the Nasdaq broke out of recent consolidation patterns and the S&P futures trade over 1000 as I type. The OEX range held yesterday while the VIX dipped to lows that usually signal danger to bullish trades. While I acknowledge that the VIX may be headed down to establish a new, lower trading range while equities climb and while I also acknowledge that equities can continue to climb for days after the VIX hits a new relative low and starts up again, the resistance and the VIX gave greater weight to a continue-in-the-range theory than a sustained-breakout theory for the OEX. We'll re-evaluate this morning, perhaps closing out the trade early.

  Jeff Bailey   8/19/200,  9:16:53 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   8/19/200,  7:26:14 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened up more than 100 points and climbed more than 200 points above the previous day's close before the morning session ended. Asian gains build upon U.S. gains which build upon Asian gains. The cycle sent the Nikkei soaring, but the Nikkei couldn't maintain all its gains. It did, however, close up 141.13 points or 1.41%, at 10,174.10, on heavy volume. Exporters climbed as did many cyclical stocks. After Citigroup raised forecasts for some chipmakers on Monday and Garner Inc. forecast that that global semiconductor sales would rise 11.2% this year, semis rose in Asia.

Trading was mixed across Asia, however, with some bourses erasing earlier gains by the close. The Taiwan Weighted closed down 0.08%, and Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.43%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also closed down, by 0.15%, but South Korea's Kospi gained 1.37% and China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.32%.

Trading is somewhat mixed in Europe, too, although more bourses trade in the green than not. In Germany, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research released its highly watched index of investor confidence for August, with the 52.5 number much higher than July's 41.9 or than the expected 46.9. Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands are officially in recession after their economies shrank two consecutive quarters, but an improved U.S. economy and expected tax cuts may have contributed to the improved expectations.

Chip-related stocks have been gaining in Europe today, too. That includes ASML, a Dutch semi equipment maker downgraded to hold by Deutsche Bank due to valuation. DB said the current price factors in the improving order trends, already reflecting any improvements that might be seen through the rest of the year. Morgan Stanley advised clients to buy European equities over U.S. equities due to developments in Europe meant to increase growth and due to the firming dollar.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 traded down 10.60 points or 0.25%, to 4261.50. The CAC 40 was up 11.96 points or 0.36%, to 3313.04. The DAX was up 31.64 points or 0.90%, to 3538.87. The DAX last traded above 3500 in the middle of September, 2002.

  Jeff Bailey   8/18/200,  12:58:55 AM
Pivot Matrix posted here: Link

Dow hits and closes new 52-week high. Has MONTHLY R1s in play as additional 52-week highs as investor optimism has got to be positive with Dow Industrials closing at new 52-week highs.

  OI Technical Staff   8/18/200,  12:58:45 AM
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