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  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  4:02:41 PM
For reference tomorrow morning, the CAC 40 closed down 37.63 points or 1.13%, at 3291.36; and the DAX closed down 48.96 points or 1.38%, at 3500.09. The CAC closed toward the bottom of its 27-point range, not able to maintain 3300 although it oscillated around that level most of the day. Except for one instance in the afternoon when the DAX slipped to its day's low of 3489.77, the DAX mostly traded between 3500 and 3520.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  3:55:15 PM
In my 15:53 post, I referred to a bounce I expected or hoped to see, but that's only a bounce that would allow an entry into a bearish position, perhaps up to 498-499 or 500.30-501 on the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  3:53:09 PM
The DJI now gets closer to confirming that double bottom on the five-minute chart, with a move over 9320 confirming it, and with that confirmation predicting a move toward 9350. I'm a little distrustful of action that occurs in the last few minutes of trading, but I've been expecting (hoping for?) a bounce and those in bearish positions might consider whether they want to hold overnight or not with important economic numbers to be released. Today's OEX daily candle looks as if it might end up being a doji, a potential reversal signal, but one that must be confirmed by tomorrow's action.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  3:40:19 PM
From 9:30 this morning until now, the 60-minute 5(3)3 stochastics have been cycling up while the price stayed static. Those stochastics now measure 56.93 as I type, not fully showing overbought conditions as yet, and they are beginning to flatten. The move up in stochastics while price stays static appears bearish on the surface, but this is just one indicator on one time frame, and today's close may change the outlook considerably. ADX remains below 20, barely, showing that we can perhaps trust oscillator indicators. When a market begins a strong trend, I've often found that only the shorter-term oscillators have time to cycle while the longer-term ones such as 21(3)3 stochastics stay pinned.

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  3:31:33 PM
Another sector index suffering from a failed rally last Friday is the BTK biotech index. The BTK has been a big winner from April to June and we've already witnessed a 50% retracement. Unfortunately bulls can't seem to get any new momentum going and the BTK keeps rolling over at its descending trendline. See the chart here: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  3:19:40 PM
Here's something I'm watching on the OEX 30-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  3:11:05 PM
That felt like a big push. Look at the five-minute OEX (DJI, NDX, SPX) charts without any trendlines drawn on them, though, and you note that the indices are still mired in their congestion zones from today. I do note, however, that the OEX made a higher five-minute low with bullish divergence on the 21(3)3 stochs(short-term bullish) and that the DJI made an equal low and will confirm a double bottom with a move over 9320. That's a long way from happening yet, however.

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  3:09:47 PM
Continuing to look over the technology related sector indices I noticed the SOX's recent failed rally put it right back into its channel. The question now is where will it bounce? See the chart here: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  3:07:57 PM
DIAMONDS Trust (AMEX:DIA) $93.23 -0.51% ... according to NASDAQ, DIA short interest grew to 23.3 million shares by August 15, up from 21.3 million on July 15. Days to cover current at 3.43 versus July 15 2.96. Short interest on the DIA has been rising steadily since January 15 11.75 million shares.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  3:03:47 PM
Reader Question: I want to buy the Sep or Oct 94's for 1.65 or 2.70 but my experience with this has been mixed in the past. Maybe it's just not a good play, just a gamble. Problem seems to be that the time value erodes so fast that even if the djx drops a bit I never get to break even. Seems like the dow has to drop big for this to work. Advice?

Response: The SEC doesn't allow me to give individual investment advice, but I can tell you that I don't trade the DJX because I haven't been particularly successful with the options, either. Since you mentioned specifically problems with the DJX dropping, I thought I might mention one peculiarity of options pricing that might be affecting your trades. Perhaps you already know about this peculiarity. I notice today that you're mentioning in-the-money puts. However, if in the past, you were buying out-of-the-money puts and then the DJX moves across your strike price, the time value deflates rather quickly as the put moves into the money. On page 247 of Options as a Strategic Investment, one of the bibles of options trading, McMillan states, "An in-the-money put (stock is below strike) loses time value premium more quickly than an in-the-money call does." Even with an in-the-money put, you're going to be losing that time-value rather quickly as the put moves deeper in-the-money. Could this peculiarity have been affecting your trades in the past?

I don't watch the Dow as much as I do the OEX, so don't have as strong a feel for how it trades, but I did note this weekend that there appeared to be some support near the 21-dma at 9240, not so far below the current level, and then more near the 50-dma near 9179. While the daily indicators show that the DJI still has plenty of room for downside, and the fall back into the consolidation pattern hints that the DJI might now travel down toward the bottom of that consolidation pattern, the DJI could see a bounce from those levels I mentioned, if they're touched. Intraday charts provide a mixed picture of strength and weakness, with many inconclusive. I think they'll sort themselves out, perhaps beginning in a few minutes now that the bond market has closed.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  3:03:37 PM
SPDR Trust (AMEX:SPY) $99.55 -0.22% ... According to NASDAQ, SPY short interest on August 15 stood at 113.1 million shares, up from July 15 short interest of 96.3 million shares. Days to cover rose to 2.71 from 2.39 in July. Short interest has been growing steadily for the SPY since March 14 60.2 million shares short.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:57:07 PM
NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQ) $32.31 -0.4% ... according to NASDAQ, short interest on the QQQ grew to 287.7 million shares on August 15, up from 260.1 million shares on July 15. Days to cover rose to 3.75 from 3.21. Short interest on the QQQ has been growing steadily since April 15 151.7 million shares.

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  2:56:05 PM
The GSO software index's failed rally on Friday and small follow through today doesn't help the bulls' short-term outlook either. See the chart here: Link

 
 
  James Brown   8/25/200,  2:48:37 PM
Just looking over some of the sector indices the research team likes to follow and noticed the DDX was back below the 120 level, which should have held as support. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:43:28 PM
NYSE Short Interest decreased to 7.452 billion shares on August 15 from July 15 7.778 billion shares.

As of August 15, 3,555 stocks were available for trading on the NYSE.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  2:39:06 PM
Buy/sell program premium levels have HL Camp & Company setting their computers for program buying at $0.52 and selling at $-1.86. Have not seen any buy/sell program premium triggers since buy program alert at 10:15 PM EST.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  2:38:10 PM
The OEX now tests the bottom of the five-minute regression channel it just violated. As if does, it's measuring just a tad above the middle of the narrow range in which the OEX has traded all day today. Although it felt as if a lot were happening early this morning and as if it would be a dramatic day, the middle of the day hasn't measured up to the beginning's promise. Perhaps the last hour of trading, after the bond market close, will measure up? Although I was sorry not to have us in a Swing Trade this morning, this middle-of-the-afternoon action and the unreliability of chart signals in low-volume trading were the reasons I didn't initiate a trade without first having a bounce up to resistance. We needed at least that cushion. If you're already in a bearish trade, however, it does appear that the OEX may be turning down from that test of the violated regression channel. Be careful, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  2:27:11 PM
Don't you hate the way that happens, Jane? (See Jane's 14:23 post on the Futures Monitor.) After seeing your ascending regression channel, I had just snapped one on the OEX, too, but then I started looking at that H&S pattern on the stochastics and thought, uh-oh. However, the five-minute stochastics have already cycled far toward oversold territory without the OEX falling far out of that pattern I showed on my 14:21 post, so once again, we may be in one of those strange periods we had last week, when things appear to be about to happen, but don't.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  2:23:04 PM
Jim has just offered an interesting perspective on the VIX, for those of you not checking "both" on the Monitor. Especially for those of us who are self-taught traders, it's important to look at all sides of an argument.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  2:21:08 PM
Here's another look at what's happening on that OEX five-minute chart: Link This is dampening my hopes for a bounce to resistance, isn't it?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  2:07:52 PM
Remember earlier today when I mentioned that it's sometimes as helpful to watch formations on the indicators as it is on the price chart? Here's one on the OEX five-minute chart that might bear watching: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  1:54:18 PM
We haven't had a measurable 1:35-1:55 push yet. We didn't get one several times late last week, either, perhaps due to the summertime light-volume trading. However, some 5-, 30- and 60-minute indicators have either turned up or are trying to do so. The evidence is far from conclusive, however. If those indicators do turn up, but price either consolidates or edges down, that's a bearish indication.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  1:43:35 PM
If that five-minute OEX formation is a bull flag, it should break to the upside before or around the time it retraces 50% of the flagpole, in this case the rise from the 495.07 high of the day to the 497.53 interim five-minute high just reached. That 50% retracement lies at 496.30, and the OEX fast approaches that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  1:39:38 PM
The current OEX five-minute pattern could be a bull flag created as the OEX 21(3)3 five-minute stochastics cycle from overbought down to oversold. If so, we could perhaps expect the next strong move to be a move up toward resistance at 498-498.80 as the stochastics cycle back up again. However, a potential bull flag warns us to watch for the possibility of more upside, but that doesn't mean the prediction will be realized, especially from a flag produced on a five-minute chart on a low-volume day during the lunchtime lull.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  1:33:25 PM
Not much of a bounce so far, right? Be watchful of the 1:35-1:55 ET push we often see, either toward support or resistance. Currently, the OEX indicators are scrambled across different time frames, so it's difficult to predict which direction that push might be. Remember that it's a test of that support or resistance and it's the outcome of that test, not the push itself, that's most important. I'm not suggesting that you not honor stops, but rather that you not draw too many conclusions too soon.

 
 
  Alan Knuckman   8/25/200,  1:20:55 PM
According to the NYSE website Monday September 1 Labor Day is an exchange holiday. Friday will be a full session ahead of the day off. “ *Early Closings: The NYSE will close at 1:00 p.m. EST on Thursday, July 3, in honor of Independence Day, Friday, November 28, in honor of Thanksgiving, and Wednesday, December 24 and Friday, December 26, in honor of Christmas “

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  1:04:10 PM
Finally, a bounce. If you're trying to trade this bounce long, watch out for that 498-498.80 zone and then the 500.30-501 zone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:58:52 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $26.47 +0.95% .... session highs after holding slowly rising 50-day SMA of $26.27 in early morning trade. Keep losses to a minimum in the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,303.18 -0.10%, which has edged back above 1,300. QQQ $32.41 -0.07% off fractional, with this morning's low of $32.21 being the first day in 11 sessions that the QQQ violoated prior session low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  12:55:37 PM
Swing Trade Signals
On the 30-minute chart, I'm looking at the gap level from the 8/15 close at 498.11 to the 8/18 open at 498.74, and noting that those two levels also define a zone of historical S/R for the OEX. Those gap levels aren't usually accidental, anyway, which is the reason they're watched so carefully. Turning to the daily chart, I note the 50-dma (simple) also at 498.64. I'm thinking that even if the OEX gets past 497, the 498-498.80 zone may be tough resistance now. Perhaps we shouldn't hope for a rise all the way to 500.80-501 before we see a rollover. However, unless volume picks up dramatically and stays bearish, I'm still going to be a bit hesitant about initiating trades.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  12:43:24 PM
It's often as important to watch for formations on the indicators as it is on the price. Note how this formation on the stochastics preceded and perhaps predicted the action on the price chart? Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  12:35:37 PM
Referencing Jane's 12:30 post on the Futures Monitor, I also post my end-of-week results with OEX Swing Trades, but since the Swing Trade Model has recently been reactivated, there's not a real trend to measure there as yet. Mike Parnos posts his results at the end of the options expiration cycle each month, too, but in the newsletter and not here on the Monitor. One strength of the site is in all the different types of trades that are offered--everything from conservative ITM covered calls to selling naked puts, from trading options to futures.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  12:31:39 PM
Here's one very short-term trendline, from the five-minute OEX chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:29:02 PM
Economic data tomorrow may wake some traders up with with July Durable Goods data due out at 08:30 AM EST with forecast of 1.0% gain after June's 2.3% jump.

Then at 10:00 AM EST, Aug. Consumer Confidence economists look for a reading of 79.6 compared to July's 76.6 reading, while at the same time July New Home Sales are forecasted at 1.15 million annual rate, which would compare to June's 1.160 million.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  12:23:38 PM
Although 30-minute oscillators are far from bullish, they're looking less bearish. The 5(3)3 stochs do roll up. CCI is at -97.60, up from a more bearish level earlier today. RSI doesn't show any propensity to turn up, however, and 21(3)3 stochs curve up only gently, still remaining deep in territory indicating oversold conditions. MACD does flatten a little, however. The 60-minute chart shows RSI and MACD still looking decidedly bearish, but both settings of stochs making bullish kisses from within territory indicating oversold conditions. I wouldn't go long based on the stochs, for sure, but I wouldn't enter short/put with the stochs acting as they are now, either. They could turn right back down again and may well do so, but they're signaling the attempt underway to steady the OEX and move it back up again. As things stand now, I don't anticipate a bounce taking the OEX far, but I hope it's far enough to pry some of those indicators up from the floor and give them room to turn down again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  12:12:28 PM
New high/New low internals for NYSE and NASDAQ at 12:00 PM EST. Link

5-day averages would continue to hold above 10-day averages, but will note slight declines in both the NYSE and NASDAQ 10-day averages for NH/NL ratio.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  12:12:18 PM
The OEX five-minute stochastic has traversed from oversold nearly to overbought while the OEX has possibly been forming a right shoulder of a rough reverse H&S formation. That puts into question the whole reverse H&S idea, as the OEX might be expected to break below the right-shoulder level as the five-minute stochastic cycles back toward oversold again. Darn.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  11:54:12 AM
Is the OEX five-minute chart building a rough miniature reverse H&S, with shoulders at 496, head at today's low, and neckline at 497? Could be. If so, the upside target would be only 499 or so--not a span we'd want to trade with a long play, but a rollover from there might be a trade we'd want to take. I've been waiting all day for that level to be tested.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  11:45:11 AM
FleetBoston (FBF) $29.33 -2% .... Downgraded to "sell" from "hold" at Prudential citing three reasons for downgrade. One is that Pru now sees less less chance of FBF being takeover target, as would be acquirers like Citigroup (C) less motivated to pay bigger premium after FBF's rise in stock price. Second reason given by Pru is FBF's quality of earnings is lackluster, raises question about sustainability, and third reason is that Pru isn't necessarily swallowing FBF's longer-term regional banking story given that FBF still has yet to show a differentiated organic revenue growth in its basic businesses following a decade of expansion and restructuring.

Prudential places $25 price target on FBF. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  11:35:13 AM
At least the five-minute OEX indicators are getting an opportunity to reset themselves as the OEX rises and tests resistance. Thirty-minute 5(3)3 stochs are moving up out of oversold territory, too, although the 21(3)3's remain buried. Like Jane's descending regression channel on the ES, there's a descending regression channel on the OEX, too. Top resistance lies at about 497 currently, so that old 496-497.50 support may now be resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  11:30:30 AM
Today the $TRAN retreats from its test late last week of 2700. Back in late October of last year, I had marked an ascending trendline on the $TRAN chart. Although it seemed a minor trendline at the time, and although I still can't account for its import now, it keeps coming into play month after month. Here's how it looks now. Link Although I wanted only one trendline on the chart above, it's also possible to draw a lower ascending trendline. This shows the $TRAN trading in a rising (bearish) wedge. While these formations used to predict a bearish outcome and a strong plummet once the lower ascending trendline was violated, at about 2600 in the TRAN's case, that hasn't been true of bearish rising wedges since March. Still, we should be aware of the possibility.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  11:25:32 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  11:15:11 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Without a bounce first to reset at least the shortest-term intraday oscillators, with extremely low volume, and with the high put/call ratio Jonathan mentioned, I've remained uncomfortable today calling an official Swing Trade. However, for the benefit of those already in bearish trades, or who carried over last week's trade and did not take the official exit, once below 494.80, the next strong support is in a zone from 492-494.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  11:06:06 AM
Like Jane, I can see more than one possibility on some charts. On the OEX five-minute chart, is this a bearish right triangle, with support likely to break to the downside? Is it a symmetrical triangle? Link (Note: As I was preparing the entry, the OEX began breaking to the downside.)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  11:00:43 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Volume remains so light that I'm still wary of pulling readers into a trade. This does not make a reliable trading environment. As of a few minutes ago, volume was only 233 million on the NYSE and 345 million on the Nasdaq. Adv:dec ratios stand at 10:19 for the NYSE and 10:18 for the Nasdaq--bearish figures. Down volume is more than double up volume on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. New highs are drastically lower than usual, at less than 100 for both exchanges, but there's been no pickup in new lows, either.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  10:57:27 AM
As the OEX consolidates, the five-minute oscillators try to cycle back up again, but even these short-term indicators are having trouble, turning up momentarily only to hook back down again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  10:29:02 AM
While that OEX 30-minute high-wave candle appears indicative of indecision and is often a reversal signal, the five-minute chart shows a possible bear flag, as does the NDX five-minute chart. The DJI five-minute chart looks a bit more like it's producing a "b" distribution pattern, but all the five-minute charts look more bearish than bullish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  10:27:06 AM
Synovis Life Tech (SYNO) $28.26 +1.94% Link ... Company announcing today that it anticipates that Medicare's recent dicision (Aug. 20) to cover lung volume reduction surgery for certain emphysema patients could lead to increased demand for the company's Peri-Strip product, however, company isn't able to accurately project the impact on fiscal 04 sales until the implementation date is announced.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  10:21:18 AM
So far, the current OEX 30-minute candle is a high-wave candle indicative of indecision.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  10:19:28 AM
Volume is still remarkably light. As of a few minutes ago, total volume was 110 million shares on the NYSE and 304 million on the Nasdaq. With the exception of new highs/new lows, the volume patterns all appear negative but that could change rapidly with the volume this light.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  10:11:16 AM
We may be getting the beginning of the bounce I wanted to see and Jonathan warned might occur because of the put/call ratio. I would like to see a bounce up to 500.30-500.80 with intraday oscillators climbing out of the cellar and relieving oversold pressure, and then a rollover from there, but the OEX could get stopped at the 498-499 level instead. Of course, it could climb right back into that congestion zone from last week, too, but that seems less likely at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  10:06:38 AM
Volume is extremely light, so light that I'm wondering if the numbers I'm seeing are correct. I'm showing 67 million traded on the NYSE and 145 million on the Nasdaq as of a few minutes ago. Adv:dec ratios stood at 11:15 on the NYSE and 9:15 on the Nasdaq, with down volume bigger than up volume, too. If these numbers were correct, however, trading is even riskier than I believed, as it wouldn't take much of a buy or sell program to change the outlook radically.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  9:59:48 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 296.60 -0.6456% ... looks to challenge its recent August 4 low of 296.14 here and three levels of overlapping support at WEEKLY S1 of 295.55 (two other levels come from WEEKLY/MONTHLY 80.9% retracement).

BIX.X does look vulnerable this week to WEEKLY S2 of 292.58.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  9:57:11 AM
Not the slightest bounce attempt as of yet.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  9:49:10 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX is close to breaching important support as the NDX hovers just above 1300 and the DJI just above 9300. This should be a bounce area, and I still hesitate to enter a Swing Trade short/put ahead of any bounce attempt as of yet and ahead of 10:00 numbers. Disclosure: I remain short/put, never having sold my personal put position because I tend to trade position trades, setting much wider stops than would be comfortable for most readers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  9:45:42 AM
Stock Trader's Almanac notes that the last week of August has been "murderous" 6 years in a row with average losses of INDU -4.6%, SPX -4.3% and NASDAQ -2.0%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  9:38:17 AM
The OEX first five-minute candle spanned only a small range, and so doesn't give us good retracement levels to watch in early trading. We're on our own. OEX 496.60-496.80 looks as if it is a particularly important level to watch, and a failure there looks important, but I really don't want to go short yet without some bounce attempt first.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  9:30:47 AM
I would love to see a bounce up to the top of this regression channel by 10:00 and a possible rollover there. The top of the channel lies at about 500.30, near the level that supported the OEX most of last week. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/25/200,  9:24:18 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  9:22:16 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Last week I joined ranks with those who have anticipated a market move and saw technical evidence that the move was beginning, only to be stopped out of the move so often that they don't participate in the actual move. My chagrin lessened somewhat when I read Mark Phillips' Leaps article this weekend. He mentioned the irritating tendency of the market to produce setups that showed the beginning of weakness, only to see that "each technical breakdown ha[d] been propped up by unseen hands." I respect Mark's technical abilities, and if I've been fooled into entering the market by those setups and Mark hasn't, at least he's seen the setups and the hidden underpinning that aborts the expected action, too. That underpinning need not have been covert, although we suspect the Fed was active in the market last week after the previous Friday's power outages. In such light volume, even a modest buy-the-dip sentiment could provide that underpinning.

I also may have been lured into the market at times that I wouldn't have normally have traded my personal account, thinking that while I don't mind abstaining from trades for a couple of weeks and potentially missing a few good moves during that time, readers might mind. Let's do better this week.

So what do I expect? Here's a daily chart: Link Although this daily chart shows that the main impetus is down, both the 5- and 60-minute charts show indicators far in oversold territory. The OEX has strong support (from historical S/R and moving averages) between 496- 497.50. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce attempt soon, so I wouldn't feel comfortable jumping right in, intending to play the downside unless we see evidence that the markets are firmly violating that support. If markets do bounce while those hourly indicators cycle back up, I would then look for a rollover either at the 498.50-499 zone or at the 500.30-501 zone. Since a rollover could occur within a few points of the current level and since daily oscillators now add downward pressure, playing the upside doesn't seem a good idea. Waiting for a rollover attempt looks like our best opportunity to enter the market, but even then we'll have to be careful. This time, I'll want volume patterns to be in our favor, if possible, or we may abstain from entering a play. As both Mark and Jim mentioned in their weekend articles, we'll see another light-volume week this week, a week in which it's possible for the same kind of range-bound action that's thwarted our other plays over the last week and a half.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   8/25/200,  7:12:41 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei traded in a 126-point range today, but managed to close only 4.53 points in the red, down 0.04%, at 10,276.64. Although the index spent most of the day underwater, a bout of buying into the close sent the index off its lows. The day started with the news that the July trade surplus had widened, rising a seasonally adjusted 3.5% month-over-month and 7.3% from the year-ago period. Exports to the U.S. and China helped account for that rise, with transport equipment, televisions, audio equipment and other electronics leading the exports. Exports grew 1.1% month-over-month and 5.6% over the year-ago period. The Japanese government reportedly gave a hefty boost to exports by selling 9.03 trillion yen to keep the yen low and make exports more attractive. Imports also rose 0.6% month-over-month as businesses and consumers revved up their spending. With the yen firming in Monday's trading, however, it was the exporters that kept the Nikkei underwater. Many chip-related stocks gained, however.

Throughout Asia, trading was mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.71%, and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.27%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was flat, gaining 0.03%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.60%, and China's Shanghai Composite lost 1.16%.

The FTSE 100 is closed today for a holiday, but most European bourses trade down. A bout of profit-taking has hit the European stocks, according to one source, with fears that economic growth hasn't justified the recent relative highs in the indices. Engineering firm Siemans, insurer Munich Re, consumer electronics maker Thomson, and semi-equipment maker ASML were big decliners in early trading. As of this writing, the CAC 40 trades down 29.34 points or 0.88%, to 3299.65. The DAX trades down 34.56 points or 0.97%, to 3514.49.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   8/24/200,  1:16:31 AM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   8/24/200,  1:16:19 AM
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Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

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