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  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  4:24:21 PM
Swing Trade Summary: OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We entered a bearish OEX trade today when the OEX traded down through 410, with a stop at 413. We were stopped out at 413, for a 3-point move against us. I usually set a 4-point stop initially, but switched to a tighter three-point stop today. Some readers have felt uncomfortable with the wide stops and there appeared to be a reasonable resistance level at 513. If we'd used the four-point stop, we would not have been stopped, but I'm not sure whether I would have kept it open overnight. The OEX ended the day at a possible bounce point, with ORCL's earnings and economic reports tomorrow, but it's also at a point from which it could fail.

9/11: Entered short/put OEX at 510.
9/11: Stopped at 513.
Results for the day: 3 OEX points against our position
Results for the week: 3 OEX points against our position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  4:00:49 PM
Mutual fund trading One can never say for sure as to how big a "rat" this could be at this point. It may be nothing at all. While Enron and its relationship with Arthur Andersen saw Arhtur Andersen willing to bend some rules to perhaps keep a client, it may be the same thing going on among mutual funds. As noted, some banks offer a line of mutual funds as part of their business model and with BAC under close watch, one can only guess that others will be looked at. The Stanford University study seems to have been out for awhile, but now just getting notice.

Enron then Worldcomm then....

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  3:55:57 PM
The OEX now tests its 30-minute 100-pma again, with that average at 511.53. This could be bounce territory, or the OEX could descend to test its 130-pma next. The 30-minute oscillators are looking bearish, but it's tough to call here at the end of the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  3:52:23 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

I'm very sorry for it being this late, but this may have been the "rat" that has been weighing on some of the banks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  3:44:58 PM
The OEX fell below the ascending trendline I had shown at 15:09. Since the drop accelerated as it moved below that trendline, I do believe it's a valid trendline to watch. It should now provide resistance, if any such thing exists. It currently crosses at about 512.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  3:40:13 PM
I usually open a Swing Trade with a stop four points away from the entry level. Today, I tightened that to three points. If I'd stuck with the four-point entry, we'd still be in the trade. Would that have been a good thing? Only time will tell, but it's looking better and better. When I backtested the system, I always used a four-point spread, giving bigger losses when the stop was hit, but hitting the stop less often. Some readers have been concerned about keeping it so far away.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  3:28:03 PM
The DJI has fallen beneath its 30-minute 100-pma, but remains above its 130-pma. Those two averages are at 9488 and 9476 respectively.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  3:09:46 PM
I've been posting descending trendlines all day. Now, as the OEX falls, here's an ascending one you might watch if the decline continues. The trendline has only two touchpoints so far, and so might not be a valid trendline to watch, but here it is: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  3:08:08 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 301.50 +0.80% .... getting intra-day downside alert here.

INDU = 9,486, SPX = 1,109, OEX = 512.7, NDX = 1,352, QQQ = $33.64

Will also make note that alert comes just after bond market close when YIELDS backed up today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  2:57:45 PM
Hilton Hotels (HLT) $15.42 +0.52% .... per Jim's 14:56:13 post.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  2:54:50 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 302.27 +0.9% ... update to Index Trader Wrap.... session high has been 302.27 and that came pretty darned close with MONTHLY pivot of 302.19, which the BIX.X broke below yesterday. Right now sits in a range between WEEKLY S2 of 301.59 and this monthly pivot. BIX.X starting to soften a little bit late in the session, so I've set a downside alert at 301.50, which if traded, might stall today's bounce in the major averages. This would be an observation more for intra-day traders.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  2:47:49 PM
The OEX has now retraced about 50% of the drop from the high on the 8th to yesterday's low. If this rise off the low is a bearish formation, as it might be with its wedge-like appearance, then it should break to the downside soon. Link If the OEX can sustain levels above that 50% retracement, then we might be looking at a rise to the 61.8% level, and then to test that September 8 high if the 61.8% level can be sustained.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  2:41:25 PM
I, too, thought the markets would rise this morning (see my 9:29 post), which was the reason I sold my put position (the DJX) yesterday, but I thought we were seeing a rollover this morning when the OEX first did battle with its 30-minute 100-pma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  2:36:58 PM
TRIN hmmmm... I'm not a follower of the TRIN. I know Jonathan does a lot, but here's an observation worth sharing. I too will look/monitor/observe and take notes of things and try and test accuracy over time. If you find something with strong reoccurrence, then trade it.

Jeff: Based on where the TRIN closed yesterday on S&P and NQ, my gut said we would be up. I've noticed that in the past. Suzanne

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  2:30:22 PM
For those in or considering bullish OEX trades, be aware of this descending trendline: Link I don't know how valid it is since it was formed off a single afternoon's trading pattern and extended through today, but since it also nearly coincides with the depicted horizontal S/R zone, it may have some relevance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  2:28:46 PM
Program Trading Numbers .... trader comment I should have known that today was going to be an up day just based on the program trading numbers published. I thought they were kind of odd in relation to what I have been seeing on a daily basis. Why I ignored it I could not tell you... but my gut said "these numbers look like they want the market to be positive today no matter what... and it seems that is going to be the case... Just a thought that needed to be expressed.

I just got this e-mail and thought observation worthy. Remember though, today is roll over and Alan discussed some of this yesterday in the Market Monitor, and we briefly discussed in last night's Wrap. I'm not all that familiar with the intricacies of how the buy/sell premium alerts were set by HL Camp, but like the subscriber, I too noted this in my mind. I think it has something to do with the roll to December contract.

Also.... I cringe now at my "expiration" prediction from an "Ask the Analyst" column Link from (I know better than to try and predict an expiration) I'd have been much better off, perhaps closer, if I'd have gone for the 1,044-1,050 area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  2:27:25 PM
My lights are flickering, so I'm not sure how long I'll remain online today. I've already lost satellite TV. It's strangely quiet without CNBC in the background.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  2:17:32 PM
S&P futures (sp03u) While I'm delayed quotes, per last night's Index Trader Wrap, getting upside alert here at 1,020.20. Today's move looking more bullish by the hour.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  2:07:54 PM
Here comes the Dow 9500-9520 test I expected about 20 minutes ago.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  2:01:19 PM
Electronic Arts (ERTS) $89.95 +0.12% ... Jeff, Is there a split in ERTS's future?

Could be. ERTS split 2:1 back on September 11, 2000 and stock closed that day at $55.00 (post split) so $110.00. My thinking is that split announcement came weeks prior and eyeball approach may have been when stock was trading pre-split $90.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  1:51:14 PM
I was wrong about the direction of the afternoon push, as I often am. I note that the Dow has spent the last hour challenging its 30-minute 100-pma, a while after the OEX and SPX climbed above theirs, and has not so far been able to climb above it. Could it be that the Dow index is guiding trading today? If so, we should have keyed our OEX trade stop to Dow 9500-9520.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  1:45:58 PM
VA Software (LNUX) $6.01 +29.74% .... big move today and recent 30-minutes as seen a sharp move out of a bullish pennant. 30-minute volume is 906,000 shares with daily volume over 6 million.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  1:36:31 PM
The first afternoon push should arrive any moment, although we've had several days lately when there's been no push. With the Dow hovering just under 9500, guess which direction I expect that push to go today? The outcome of that test could tell us much about afternoon direction. I've been wrong before about the likely direction of the afternoon push, so this is just a guess.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  1:32:36 PM
The current OEX five-minute pattern may be a bull flag forming just under resistance. If so, it should break to the upside before retracing further than 512.35, the 50% retracement of the rise that immediately preceded the formation of the flag.

 
 
  James Brown   9/11/200,  1:32:27 PM
BAC on Brokers - Bank of America (BAC) has initiated coverage on several brokers today. BAC starts Lehman Brothers (LEH) at a "neutral", Merrill Lynch (MER) at a "neutral", Morgan Stanley (MWD) at a "buy", and Bear Stearns (BSC) at a "buy".

 
 
  James Brown   9/11/200,  1:20:00 PM
Bullish biotech traders may want to keep an eye on shares of AMGN. We're still watching for that upside breakout. Here's a chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  1:18:18 PM
In my 12:26 post, I mentioned that the 30-minute RSI had broken through its trendline of lower highs, and that such RSI trendline breaks often were early signs of strength. That proved to be true this time, too, because that RSI trendline break came ahead of the OEX's break of its descending trendline, either my or Jim's version. Although I don't pay as much attention to the absolute level of the RSI, as it can hinge up and down with the trading winds, too, such trendline and formation violations can be useful and sometimes can be leading indicators.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  1:09:32 PM
You're right about that, Jim.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/11/200,  1:08:45 PM
Linda, it made no difference what line we drew as that last buy program broke them both.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  1:04:52 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were just stopped out of our OEX bearish trade when the OEX traded 513. We entered at 510, so the OEX moved 3 points against us. I thought about changing the exit to 513.50 a few minutes ago because I noticed that a 50% retracement of the drop from the 9/08 high to yesterday's low came in just below that level, but I did not want to keep changing stops. That's bad account-management policy, but it's possible we could have gotten stopped at what will turn out to be near the high of the day.

 
 
  James Brown   9/11/200,  1:00:01 PM
Yeah, I'm better looking. *grin*

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/11/200,  12:59:55 PM
Linda, I was just curious but then my bias probably had me looking for a different trend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:58:41 PM
Good point, Jim: In retrospect, you're right about the upper trendline, and the OEX currently looks to be testing that upper trendline you've drawn. I was focusing too closely on today's trading.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/11/200,  12:56:02 PM
Linda, why would you not draw the trend like this? Link Instead of picking an arbitrary point today I picked the high of the day yesterday. (another arbitrary point)

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/11/200,  12:55:36 PM
For those who continually email James for me and vice versa here is a picture of James and a picture of me. We are not the same person:

Link James

Link Jim

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:55:25 PM
I've been trying to apply some Bollinger Band truisms to trading the OEX via envelope bands, to help eliminate entries in which the OEX would either continue to climb the envelope band or else just oscillate around the central MA. One Bollinger band truism espoused by Bollinger himself (at least on his website) is that price tends to follow the direction of the Bollinger bands unless they slope too steeply. As a former physics major, I wish there were an exact angle applied to that "too steeply" comment, but I couldn't find one. However, one factor today for entering a bearish trade was that the 30-minute 1.35% envelope band had rolled down. I didn't think it was "too steep" a descent, but the idea was that it might be better to concentrate on going short on rollovers rather than buying support when the bands roll down this way. That premise was reinforced by the resistance levels I was watching, and the OEX's early behavior today when testing those averages. Of course, those bands have since flattened, as has the 30-minute 21-pma. They still slope down on the 60-minute chart, however, but do not on the daily chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:35:07 PM
Here's the shape today's trading has taken on the OEX five-minute chart: Link According to my technical analysis texts, this is a rising wedge (both trendlines rising) and as we've mentioned numerous times, this is usually a bearish formation that breaks to the downside. We've also mentioned that these formations haven't been particularly reliable lately, with many upside breaks instead. However, I've expanded the chart to show that if this formation is bearish, it should break to the downside before hitting our 513 stop. There's always the possibility of a stop-running spike taking us out just before the OEX turns around, but we can hope the trading robots will be kind and not do that.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/11/200,  12:28:50 PM
Jeff I got shivers reading your updates from Sept 11 2001. Thank you very much for posting them.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:26:21 PM
Thirty-minute CCI shows a pattern of lower highs and higher lows. One of the two trendlines drawn across the lows and the highs has to break, but perhaps not today. Both 30-minute RSI and MACD are threatening to break above their trendlines of lower highs, with the RSI perhaps already doing so. RSI breaks sometimes give early hints of strength or weakness in the market.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:22:31 PM
Swing Trade Signals
If I disappear, we're in the midst of a thunderstorm here, and our electricity sometimes cuts out during those storms. We have our stop and profit target in place if I'm not on the Monitor for a while.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  12:22:28 PM
Today is still a day to look back I was somewhat in shock this day back in 2001. I was taking some time to look back at the archives and I will just remember watching the TV in awe at what had and was taking place. My intra-day updates were so short, not much that words could express. I remember when the first plane hit, early news reports what that it was a small plane hitting one of the World Trade Center towers. 09:00 Update Link 10:30 Update Link 01:30 PM update Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:19:48 PM
Those of us in bearish OEX trades need to see the OEX back below 511.34, the 30-minute 100-pma. The 30-minute 21-pma is also located nearby, at 511.32. With the OEX above those levels, it's possible they could now provide support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:08:11 PM
If the OEX rolls down now accompanied by a rollover in the stochastics, far from a done deal, then there will have been bearish divergence on the five-minute stochastics (higher high on the price, lower high on the stochastics). The stochastics have flattened at a lower level than the previous peak.

 
 
  Jane Fox   9/11/200,  12:06:47 PM
Linda someone at IB needs to get their act together. This happens quite often.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  12:04:33 PM
IB just erroneously sent a message to all customers that their accounts were trade-disabled until IB was contacted. Are we all dialing IB at the same time?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:54:31 AM
Yes, the BIX five-minute chart has a possible inverse H&S-ish look to it, Jeff.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  11:52:44 AM
It's coming to an intra-day head Linda S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 302.04 +1%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:50:29 AM
Here is what the OEX faces on the 30-minute chart. The resistance should be strong, but if the OEX moves substantially through this level (not a mere stop-running pop above it), that would be bullish. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  11:46:25 AM
Listen to CNBC here discussion on money supply.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  11:44:25 AM
11:00 Update uploaded at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:42:35 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX climbed above the H&S neckline, of course, and now challenges the 30-minute 21-pma as well as historical support-turned-resistance. I've set the 513 stop so that it will take us out of the trade if the OEX breaches all those levels, giving us a little leeway to let the OEX overrun them a bit before turning around.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:28:18 AM
Volume patterns continue to show more advancers than decliners and higher up than down volume, but the bullishness is beginning to ease. To feel comfortable in our bearish trade, we want to see them continue this trajectory. Today, we see 15 new lows, a higher number than we're accustomed to seeing on some days. Total volume as of a few minutes ago was 379 million on the NYSE and 608 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:15:07 AM
We can expect a retest of the violated OEX five-minute H&S neckline, between 510.40-510.80, depending on how it was drawn.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:09:36 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Our bearish trade on the OEX triggered with a trade below 510. We have a stop at 513 and a target of 505.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:08:16 AM
And there goes the neckline of the H&S on the OEX, along with the neckline support on stochastics and RSI.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  11:06:55 AM
While indicators sometimes drive me crazy when they don't indicate anything or indicate something that doesn't happen, here's one thing I do like about indicators. Notice the way the stochastics form their own H&S at the same time the price is doing so? Sometimes the indicators break through a pattern just before the price does--particularly RSI--or sometimes at the same time, confirming the pattern break in the price chart. This time, there's no break on any of these as yet, and the indicators are showing a tendency to turn up again along the neckline: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  10:59:03 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 436.72 -1.16% .... leading tech sector loser after early bid has faded. Looks to be souring other tech sectors with Biotech (BTK.X) 472.31 -0.52%, and others now turning fractional red.

QQQ $33.12 -0.45% lower by 14 cents, while NDX 1,332.88 +0.04% holding fractional gain.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  10:55:38 AM
The possible H&S on the five-minute OEX chart, as mentioned in my 10:41 post, looks like more of a likelihood now, as the OEX did turn down from the right-shoulder area. Be careful now as the OEX approaches the neckline, as sometimes these formations are rejected, and when they are, the relief sometimes sends an index sharply higher. I don't expect that to happen, but we must be aware of that possibility with the bullish tenor still lingering in the markets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  10:43:35 AM
Although volume is light, volume patterns are all positive.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  10:41:29 AM
Watch for the possibility that the OEX could be building a H&S on its five-minute chart: Link If it's a H&S, the current rise should top out soon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  10:32:26 AM
S&P futures (sp03u) chart on 60-minute interval. This is same chart shown in last night's Index Trader Wrap and yesterday's market monitor, but 60-minute intervals. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  10:18:22 AM
Swing Trade Signals
In the first morning reversal, the OEX retraced less than 38.2% of the first five-minute range before it headed up again. That's bullish action. Now the OEX faces that overhead resistance I pointed out in my last post, however. I'm going to leave the Swing Trade signal in place for a while longer as the OEX challenges this resistance. A burst through it would be considered bullish, but let's see what happens.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  10:15:49 AM
Excellent chart/observation Linda in your 10:10:32 post. I'm thinking it might take a BIX.X above WEEKLY S1 of 303.83 if the OEX is going to move through that resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  10:10:32 AM
Here are some things I'm watching on the OEX 30-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  10:08:46 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 301.41 +0.79% ... BIX.X moves above first level of correlative resistance here and per Index Trader's wrap, I'm thinking we're going to see some shorts come in for covering in the major indices. Bulls can ease in with some longs and monitor things for strength as outlined.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  10:05:11 AM
The Dow now tests 9460 resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  10:03:46 AM
Adobe Systems (ADBE) $39.64 +8.9% .... Jeff: Nice call on ADBE yesterday in your 3:15 update. I bought a few October $35 calls. My question is with $40 resistance, should I hold on this pop or take the gains and run? Also, I don't have the sector bullish percent data that you do, could you update us on the sector?

Nice trade for sure. I can't take all the credit as brokers from the fundamental side were making a good case that seemed to match the technicals.

One strategy I like when you get the reaction you were expecting and a rather nice gain in a such a short amount of time is to simply take part of the position off the table. I'm not sure how many calls "a few" is, but you may think about selling 1/2 and holding on. I'll try and show a channel for ADBE with the PnF chart later, but if you take a 45-degree angle upward from the LONG column of O back in July/August of last year, and start that upward trend from $22, we will see what appears to be bullish resistance type of trend (like a regression channel that would extend to about $47 right now. $43-$44 might be a good target into October expiration. Link

Sector bullish % from Dorsey/Wright has the software bullish % (BPSOFT) "bull confirmed" at 72.85%. It would take a reading of 66% to reverse into "bear alert" and 60% for "bear confirmed" readings.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  10:00:13 AM
The current OEX five-minute pattern could be a measured accumulation pattern such as a "p" pattern at the top of this morning's rise, with the outcome being an upside breakout. That's the usual interpretation. Arguing against that interpretation, however, are the 5-minute 21(3)3 stochastics, which are trying to turn down from levels indicating overbought conditions. We'll see which wins.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  9:55:51 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The suggested entry posted earlier is a "just in case" entry. It's possible that the OEX will instead push up through the descending trendline that's been forming since 9/08 and through the 30-minute 100-pma, which it now tests again. If it also pushes up through the 30-minute 21-pma, I'll be withdrawing the entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  9:50:12 AM
Caterpillar (CAT) $67.92 -1.55% Link ... a recent leadership stock in the Dow Indu. Today's trade at $68.00 has stock back on a sell signal after stock achieved bullish vertical count of $72 in mid-August. Sign of profit taking at a target and perhaps seeing some rotation of cash out.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  9:50:12 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Enter short/put on an OEX trade below 510 with a stop at 513, and a target of 505.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  9:47:24 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 300.62 +0.53% .... WEEKLY S2 still above at $301.59. SPX 1,14.84 +0.38% and OEX 510.58 +0.35%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  9:39:25 AM
The OEX challenges its 30-minute 100-pma. I would not want to enter a bearish position now, however, until the initial volatility subsides and we see how this test of this important MA proceeds. A move over this average would be considered bullish, but 513.30-513.50 resistance waits overhead if the OEX does clear this MA.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  9:37:30 AM
Genaissance Pharmaceuticals (GNSC) $2.00 +33% Link .... gainer at the open after company entered agreement with AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) Link $43.20 to utilize information from GNSC's Statin Response Examined by Genetic Haplotype Markers (STRENGTH) study. Terms of the agreement call for AZN to receive non-exclusive access to the study database for research purposes for a limited period. Today's announcement marks the second commercialization agreement related to the proprietary data generated in GNSC's (STRENGTH) study.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  9:35:35 AM
The OEX first five-minute candle spanned a large-enough range that we can watch the retracement levels as benchmarks in early trading. The 50% level is probably the most important to watch. The 50% retracement of the first five-minute range lies at 510.03. Bulls want to maintain this level in early trading, and bears want to drive the OEX below that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  9:29:22 AM
Yesterday, I sold out my personal bearish position at the end of trading, taking my profit. As I've been informally backtesting the envelope method of trading the OEX or the other indices, I've noticed that a lot of trades that had been working well were stopped out on an opening spike or drop the next day, but then would have gone one to perform well the rest of the day. This most often occurred when the indices were near some key level, even if they had closed near the low of the day the previous day, normally a bearish sign. The Dow ended near 9400 yesterday, and the OEX near 508 S/R. I also noticed that RSI was trying to curl up again across many time frames on OEX charts at the close of trading yesterday.

So, as I test the system with my own money this week, I'm flat this morning and wondering how to approach the trading day. Should I go long this morning, hoping for a spike up to next resistance? Wait for that hoped-for spike and enter a bearish trade again? With daily oscillators showing more downside to go, and with the 30-minute and 60-minute charts showing the 21-dma curling over and heading down, my inclination today is to wait for a bounce and re-enter a bearish position. On the OEX, I would look for a bounce up to 511.30 or so, the site of historical resistance and also of the 30-minute 100-pma. By the time the OEX reaches that point, the 30-minute 21-pma may be nearing that level, too, combining its resistance. I'll want volume-pattern confirmation, if possible, and a spiking VIX wouldn't hurt, either. If we get that spiking VIX and cooperating volume patterns, I may even consider an official Swing Trade this morning. What if there isn't a bounce? I'm reluctant to enter a bearish position at this level because of the close proximity of 504-506 support. I would expect bulls to defend this level more strongly, and suspect that we'll get a bounce at that level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  9:26:50 AM
Altria (MO) $41.59 Link .... Indicating lower at $41.00 after CSFB reduces its 2003 estimates to $4.58 from $4.65 and 2004 estimates to $4.89 from $5.00 based on CSFB's forecast for lower volume expectations in the U.S. and European markets during the second-half of 2003.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/11/200,  9:16:28 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/11/200,  7:00:51 AM
Good morning. With U.S. markets declining and an Osama bin Laden tape surfacing, Nikkei investors were in the mood to take profits. The Nikkei opened more than 100 points in the red and closed more than 300 points in the red. The Nikkei closed down 309.99 points or 2.86%, at 10,546.33. Financials and techs suffered, with computer-related stocks leading the declines.

Taiwan's and South Korea's markets are closed today and tomorrow for a holiday and the Nikkei will be closed Monday. Singapore's Straits Times gained 1.69%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.68%. China's Shanghai Composite was flat, with a 0.06% gain.

Although many European bourses traded down earlier in the day, most are currently well off their lows. One analyst commented on the trading action this morning, stating that institutional investors had made the decision to remain invested in the markets, and were buying despite the retail investor selling and taking profits. Earlier, Europe reeled under the news that one of the leading proponents calling for Sweden to join Europe's monetary union, Foreign Minister Anna Lindh, was killed in a knife attack in Stockholm. The election, planned for Sunday, will proceed.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 is down 0.50 points or 0.01%, at 4251.60. The CAC trades up 17.11 points or 0.51%, to 3345.82. The DAX has gained 2.42 points or 0.07%, to trade at 3539.29.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/10/200,  11:46:29 PM
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