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  Jonathan Levinson   9/15/200,  4:51:50 PM
NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - NASD on Monday warned against the dangers of buying "on margin," after a surge of borrowing by U.S. investors hoping to take advantage of the recent rise in stock prices. The NASD, which regulates all 5,300 U.S. brokerage firms, issued the alert after purchases of securities on margin increased 25 percent this year, reaching $174 billion in July.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  4:14:53 PM
Sector Winners - The sector winners today were a little mixed. The BIX S&P banks index was up about 1/3 of a point while the KBW BKX banking index fell an extremely small amount.

The XBD broker/dealer index did manage to continue its slow crawl towards resistance near 600.

The XAL airlines index also closed in the green by a very small margin.

The two biggest winners were the RLX retail index, up 1.5% on the Wal-Mart news this morning and the DJUHSB homebuilders index, up 2.2% powered by the TOL upgrade.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  4:02:44 PM
Brightpoint Inc - CELL - Shares of CELL are breaking out today, up 9.9% to $30.20. The company has announced its second 3-for-2 stock split in two months. Shares have more than tripled from their June lows near $7.00 (pre-split). Volume is strong on the rallies. This stock is obviously extremely overbought but go-go momentum traders might want to look into it and pursue their own due diligence. CELL does have options.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  3:59:19 PM
Cardiac Science (DFIB) $4.58 +15.32% ... Hi Jeff,

I've been holding DFIB a maker of external defibrillators since about 2.00 and after signing a deal with GE earlier this summer it started to break out at $3. Big move today. I'm seeing a target of 5.50-6 on point and figure chart. Is that correct?

DFIB .... cool stock symbol! PnF chart shows that double-top buy signal at $3.50 in early August breaking above its longer-term bearish trend. Vertical count (column of X from $2.75 to $4.00) is bullish to $7.25. I think we would expect some near-term resistance at the $5.00 level, but if DFIB can break above that level on closing basis, could "beat its way" to $6.00 in a heart beat.

I also took a retracement from the September 13, 2002 low close of $1.29 (why did it close there?) and then took 100% to the bullish vertical count target of $7.25. Gives me 19.1% at $2.42 (it and rising 200-day SMA support for recent bounce), 38.2% at $3.56 not that much tie in with things, 50% at $4.26 did hold resistance on closing basis for past 1.5 months, but broken today on good volume of 2.4 million, with 61.8% at 4.97, 80.9% at $6.10 and 100% then at $7.25.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  3:55:13 PM
More on BSX - For those following the BSX story, it's important to note that BSX Taxus stent has been outselling JNJ's comparable stents overseas. Everyone is anticipating an FDA approval for BSX's stent and JNJ recently lowered the prices on their stents in the U.S. to be more competitive. Both parties are still waiting for a ruling by a Federal court on JNJ's request to prevent BSX from developing its alleged patent-infringing drug-eluting stent. Wall-Street obviously doesn't expect JNJ to win this request but both corporations could be tied up in patent-infringement litigation.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  3:46:05 PM
Those who entered a bearish trade on an OEX trade below 509.50 (1 cent below!) should now be considering whether to exit on one of these dips to support. As I mentioned in my 15:09 and 15:20 posts, the OEX appears snagged between various support and resistance levels, with the various indicators sometimes shifting one direction and sometimes another. Without a trend in place, it's difficult to guess whether the OEX will open up tomorrow or open down or tread water again. Daily 21(3)3 stochastics attempt to turn up, RSI turns down, and MACD flattens. Unless Friday's high or low is breached in the last 15 minutes of trading, the OEX appears to be setting up for an inside day, another sign of indecision.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  3:36:19 PM
03:15 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  3:20:54 PM
The OEX has moved back above the 30-minute 100-pma, a danger to those in bearish plays, but keeps getting stuck at the top of last week's gap, a danger to those in bullish plays.

If you're in any plays using OTM September options, this action is a danger to your account, with the OEX stuck in a range while time value seeps away. Consider setting stops based not only on OEX action, but also on a percentage loss on your option purchase price.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  3:09:58 PM
Here's been part of the problem today. Here's a shot of the OEX 30-minute chart. Not only is the OEX trying to establish that gap level as either support or resistance, but also the OEX is caught in all these moving averages: (100-pma in blue, 130-pma in green, and 21-pma in red). Link It's also near the 60-minute 21-pma, and under the daily 10-dma but over the daily 21-dma. It's tangled in the various averages, with traders' viewpoints likely varying from "it's going to bounce from pick-an-average" or "it's going to fail from pick-an-average." Right now, the fail-from theory seems to be gaining strength, but I usually give violations a point or so before I believe they're valid and not just a stop-running test, so I'm not thoroughly convinced yet. I'm watching an ascending trendline on the 30-minute MACD, which has not yet been violated, and I'm looking at daily charts that don't yet look alarming, either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  2:53:13 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 453.41 +2.34% Link .... sector has been finding renewed bid of late. Reversal back lower intra-day in Treasury YIELDs with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) now lower by 3.2 basis points at 4.237% has DJUSHB looking to challenge last week's relative highs of 465.

With some of the industrial production data and jobs market still rather weak, YIELDS staying in check and edging back lower last two week, homebuilders begin to look strong again. If they can clear the 465 level (resisistance in July and late-August, then highs of 480 are in play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  2:40:47 PM
Angiotech Pharma (ANPI) $43.86 (still halted) ... Company set to receive a 6% royalty from partnership with Boston Scientific (BSX) $66.37 +8%.

Not sure at this point why stock is still halted. Will note that company is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and may be waiting for trading halt to be lifted in Canada.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  2:31:07 PM
The more I stare at the OEX 30-minute and 60-minute charts, the more significant I believe the gap level from Thursday's close to Monday's opening to be. The OEX shot above that gap Friday afternoon but has now come back to test it most of the day, moving only briefly below it, however. Most of the 30-minute candles are closing near the middle of that gap. The 30-minute 100-pma now crosses near the top of the gap. It's as if the OEX didn't really mean it when it overshot that gap on Friday afternoon and now has to come back and test it and see if the gap support really exists.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  2:28:58 PM
Boston Scientific (BSX) $66.70 +8.7% Link ... released for trading.

Trade at $63 gets stock back on a PnF buy signal and current vertical count builds bullish to $88.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  2:26:24 PM
I agree with Jonathan's assessment that the indices could go either way. On daily charts, I'm noticing mixed indicators and indices stuck between 10-dma's overhead and 21-dma's underneath, and that's just the daily charts. Intraday charts show the OEX, as least, oscillating around some key averages, a little above and a little over while indicators oscillate, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  2:19:45 PM
In my 14:12 post, I included a five-minute chart that showed an ascending trendline for the OEX. The OEX has touched it again and is trying to rise from that trendline. For comparison's sake, the SPX has not yet touched a similar trendline, nor has the SPX. the COMPX currently tests its similar trendline. The NDX has not only touched its similar trendline, but has fallen below it, indicating that the NDX stocks are underperforming the others by this measure at least.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  2:12:18 PM
Here are a few things I'm watching on the OEX five-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  2:10:53 PM
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $50.65 -1.99% ... holding off its lows of $50.15 after Boston Scientific (BSX) $61.40 (still halted) said that 9-months results from its Taxus IV clinical trial reported a target lesion revascularization rate of 3%, an in-segment restenosis (clogging) rate of 7.9%, and a diabetic restenosis rate of 6.4%.

JNJ's E-Sirius trials in Canada and Europe had set a new trial benchmark for drug-eluting stent trials with an overall 5.1% binary restenosis rate, and in the most challenging patients, the company's Cypher Stent showed a 10.8% in-segment restenosis rate for diabetics vs. 17.6% in the Sirius trial and a 7.7% in-segment restenosis rate in the smallest vessels compares to 18.4% in Sirius patients.

In all, it looks like BSX's trial went quite well.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  1:59:58 PM
Andrew Corp. (ANDW) $14.04 +0.42% ... Could give me your input on ANDW looks to me that it should go to $20.00 I am looking at Jan calls

Thanking you in advance

The PnF chart on ANDW Link is bullish and recent trade at $12.50 has stock in a longer-term upward trend. Vertical count is bullish to $18.50. Dorsey/Wright & Associates has the maker of various communications products Link classified as "telecom", where the sector bullish % (BPTELE) is "bull confirmed" at 73.59%.

On September 11, broker Ferris, Baker Watts upgraded ANDW to "buy" from "hold" with target of $17, saying it has developed increased confidence that the wireless industry is likely in the midst of a demand inflection point.

On Aug. 14, Fahnestock initiated coverage with a "buy" rating at $15 target, saying ANDW has become one of the most innovative companies in the wireless infrastructure sector.

To me (Jeff Bailey) the technicals certainly have the MARKET responding and agreeing with the various fundamental comments of late. I like the stock bullish, but will be a little more conservative with a price target of $18.50. Support should be firm at/near the $12.00 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  1:55:18 PM
I've noticed that after the OEX makes several big moves above or below its 30-minute 21-pma, it often rests for a while, gyrating around that average for a day or so or a half a week or so before moving through it resoundingly. That makes decision making difficult, as it's difficult to know when the next pass through that level is going to be the one that results in a big movement. We're having that kind of gyration today.

As I look at the daily charts of several indices, I still don't find reason yet to be overly bearish, although a retest of support already tested last week might still occur. Looking at the SOX, for example, I see an index that accelerated its gains beginning in early August, and then retreated last week. That pullback retraced an almost exact 38.2% of the early August-early September move, and then the SOX bounced from that level. I wouldn't preclude another move down to test that 38.2% level or even down to the 61.8% retracement near the 50-dma at 411.92, but that's still within the normal realm for an everyday, run-of-the-mill retracement. I've noticed that the SOX tends toward fairly deep retracements during its climbs of late. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the SOX push above its 10-dma, currently at 454.50. By the way, there's no bearish divergence on the last two MACD peaks, as there has been on the OEX.

Until the indices move down through those support levels tested last week or maybe even a little lower, we have to count this as normal backing-and-filling, establishing broken resistance as support. A move through those levels might have me thinking differently, though.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  1:52:26 PM
GHA Hardware Index - The IBM upgrade this morning has not helped the GHA hardware index. It continues to crawl along short-term support near 230. The technical indicators do look bearish and a pull back to the 220/simple 50-dma level would be close to a 50% retracement of the August-September rally. Here is a chart: Link

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  1:39:44 PM
Atari Fans will be happy to know that Atari (ATAR) has inked a deal with Microsoft to distribute certain games for Windows users. Details were not available but shares of ATAR are still up 3.7% on massive volume of 1.9 million shares. The stock was up much higher intraday. Unfortunately, ATAR is both a low dollar stock and does not currently have options.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  1:37:45 PM
Be cautious about drawing conclusions too soon during the next twenty minutes, as this is the traditional stop-running time when resistance and/or support is tested. If nearby support is tested, but holds with only a minimal violation, then bulls might gain confidence. If resistance is tested and holds with only a minimal violation, bears might gain confidence. The initial direction of a push during this time period, if one occurs, might not be the final direction.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  1:34:30 PM
Chips Fade - Positive comments by Merrill Lynch over chip industry growth and a MER upgrade of equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT) was not enough to keep the chip sector out of negative territory. The $SOX is down just over 1 percent while AMAT is up less than 2 cents. Dow component Intel is down 0.7%.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   9/15/200,  1:30:50 PM
RSAS $14.12 (+0.47) Charging higher right out of the starting gate this morning, this new Premier Investor bullish play certainly got off to a good start with that breakout over $14 resistance. Traders waiting for the subsequent pullback to test broken resistance as new support look like they will get that chance. Now that RSAS has been triggered with the trade over $14, a pullback and rebound in the $13.65-13.90 area looks like a solid entry oppotunity. One interesting note about today's price action is that the stock gapped higher on news that the company recieved favorable coverate in Windows & .NET Magazine's Reader Choice awards. The follow through from that gap continued right up to the top of the long-term channel ($14.70), and then fell back from that level. As mentioned in the weekend play coverage, that channel will likely continue to be a significant barrier of resistance, keeping the rate of ascent rather slow.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  1:21:16 PM
The OEX is now rising to challenge that 30-minute 100-pma. As it does, the 30-minute RSI curves gently upward, and the MACD is trying to flatten again after beginning a move below zero. CCI has a slight positive value. Nothing is set in stone here, but some indicators are looking more bullish as this test occurs. If the OEX fails this test and moves down, they'll look more bearish again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  1:18:52 PM
That inverse H&S on the TNX.X is now defunct, with the TNX moving below the shoulder level.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   9/15/200,  1:16:40 PM
EBAY $53.89 (+1.26) Well, it looks like it is time to bid farewell to our bearish play setup on EBAY. Last week when the stock looked like a breakdown candidate, as it neared the $50 level. But just like clockwork, the bulls have been bidding the stock higher for the past several sessions and it looks like our coverage stop ($54.25) could be tapped before the closing bell. Earlier this morning, EBAY traded an intraday high of $54.18 and that feels close enough to us. Fortunately, when we initiated the play, we had the foresight to set an entry trigger below $50. Since that trigger was never touched, we can simply view it as a potential play that never set up. No harm, no foul.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  1:13:41 PM
Adv:dec volume patterns tread water on either side of neutral today, another reason I didn't want to give an official Swing Trade signal. During opex week, we need cooperating volume patterns, if possible. Sometimes after a big move one direction, we have to take an entry before those volume patterns have switched back the other direction, but in a slow market, we want them going our direction. One of our tasks is to point out times when good entries don't exist except for aggressive players, and today has been one of those times.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  1:06:45 PM
So far, the OEX has not been able to significantly challenge the violated 30-minute 100-pma, much less break above it. Neither has it been able to stay significantly below the 30-minute 130-pma.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  12:55:26 PM
Southwest Airlines - LUV - Shares of current OI call play, LUV, continue to trade higher. Currently up +1.7% to $18.90.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  12:53:31 PM
The TNX appears to have a nice little inverse H&S building on the three-minute chart, but it hasn't confirmed: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  12:42:24 PM
As of a few minutes ago, decliners led on the NYSE, while the opposite was true of the Nasdaq. Adv:dec ratios were at 14:16 for the NYSE and 16:14 for the Nasdaq. Declining volume was almost double advancing volume on the NYSE, while they were roughly equal on the Nasdaq. Total volume was 501 million shares on the NYSE and 769 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  12:36:06 PM
5-year Treasury YIELD ($FVX.X) now slipping lower by 1.6 basis points to 3.140% as Treasuried begin to see a bid. U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 96.00 -0.01% relatively unchanged now after early morning bid.

Treasuries seemed to reverse losses and dollar reversed gains after 09:15 AM ESt release of industrial production and capacity utilization data. Both showing very modest improvement and perhaps not as robust as some might have looked for.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/15/200,  12:27:51 PM
The current shares in SNDK will be diluted by 11% regardless of the reaction. Every future impact to the stock price buy earnings, splits, investor demand, etc will suffer from that dilution. Sometime the issuance will actually see the stock price rise if institutions or management have already committed to buy the stock. This is seen to be bullish but the same future dilution still applies.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  12:18:29 PM
Question from a reader about SNDK:

Please explain how the issuance of new shares to the public affects a stock.

Good question. SNDK is going to issue another 7.8 million shares to the public. The company currently has about 70 million shares outstanding. The immediate affect is that current shareholders have the value of their investments devalued by 11%. But only if the stock price reacts negatively. The question is how does the market respond to it. Are there willing buyers to absorb these new shares? Or will this new supply overpower demand and bring the stock price down. Even if this new supply does not undermine the stock price it will probably stall any advance as current buying pressure needs to eat up these new shares before pushing the stock higher again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  12:15:27 PM
The OEX dipped one penny under 509.50, to trade a low of 509.49. For those who elected to enter a bearish play on a trade below 509.50, I'll follow informally. The OEX now appears headed back to retest the broken support of 30-minute 130-pma, currently at 510.34. If the OEX can climb above this level, it might next test the 100-pma, now at 511.06.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  12:06:24 PM
Homebuilders Higher - The DJUSHB index is higher today, led by Toll Brothers TOL after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock from "neutral" to "over weight". TOL is up nearly 5%.

A few of the homebuilders do look like tempting bullish candidates. Shares of Centex (CTX) are bouncing up from support near $71, but remain under its 50-dma. Shares of Pulte Homes (PHM) is bouncing from its 50-dma and lows near $64. Shares of Lennar Corp (LEN) probably look the most appealing, up +1.89% above short-term resistance at $72

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  12:02:43 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Because of the close proximity of strong support, I'm not going to make this an official signal, but those interested in a short/put play could enter on an OEX trade below 509.50. The stop would be 512.50 (a little more than a point above the 30-minute 100-pma). The initial target would be 507, not a great risk/reward ratio. That's why I'm not suggesting this play, but rather pointing out some possible points to watch for those who might be interested in playing the downside. Here are a couple of areas for possible support, one reason for setting the entry at 509.50: Link I would much rather have given a long signal on a bounce above the 30-minute 100-pma, with cooperating indicators, but that's not what I'm getting so far.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  12:00:47 PM
Xybernaut (XYBR) $1.44 +15.20% Link .... wearable computer maker has been on the move of late and today's 10th-most active. Back in May, New York Times article discussed how many of the technologies used by military armed forces had their origin in commercial rather than military initiatives, with XYBR mentioned as supplier of wearable computers to military.

Today, XYBR announced it received an additional $510,000 contract from the Dept. of Defense for its wearable computers that will be used by the Air Force, Army and National guard for maintenance activities. The contract is in addition to this quarter's previously announced DOD contract for $600,000 in hardware and $1.6 million in services.

It may also be notable that back in November 2002, XYBR raised more than $11 million in equity capital through a $9.2 million private placement of common stock, and a $2 million exercise of warrants issued in connection with previous financings. I'm checking to see what these warrants were priced at, as it may impact stock price to the upside.

I do see that prior news had the company repricing warrants for 87,500 shares, issued last August, from $10 a share to $2.10; and warrants for 119,880 shares, issued in January, from $6.25 to $2.10.

A good upside target in my opinion near-term is $2.10 per share if not $3.00 to get these warrants in the money.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  11:54:25 AM
Wal-Mart same-store sales - Shares of WMT and the RLX retail index are creeping higher after the retail titan told Wall Street that its same-store sales numbers were still tracking near the high end of its 3-5% growth estimates. While last week's U.S. retail sales report said apparel sales were lagging country-wide, WMT stated this morning that gains were being led by girl's, infants and toddler's clothing. WMT is up +0.58% but remain below short-term resistance of $58.00.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  11:45:55 AM
SanDisk Corp - SNDK - SNDK was on our watch list this weekend. Shares have been exceptionally strong and have not succumbed to some of the profit taking last week. This morning the company announced its full year outlook, raising the revenue outlook above consensus estimates. Countering this good news is their plan to issue another 7.8 million shares to the public. The stock is currently down 3% but remains above the $60 level of minor support.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  11:45:23 AM
The OEX struggles with that 30-minute 100-pma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  11:39:40 AM
Here comes the test of the OEX 30-minute 100-pma. Bulls want to see the OEX driven firmly back above this average, currently at 511.09.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  11:37:00 AM
SAP AG gets downgraded - potentially influencing the weakness in the GSO today is a downgrade by Prudential for SAP. The European software stock is currently unchanged in the U.S. markets after PRU downgraded them to "neutral" from "over weight" on valuation concerns.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  11:31:10 AM
This OEX five-minute pattern could possibly be measured distribution after the quick fall, with that measured distribution allowing the OEX to rise toward violated support. We'll have to wait and see the outcome, however, as we saw what happened to the presumed measured accumulation on the 30-minute chart. I'm still watching what happens on the retest of the 30-minute 100-pma, if such a test occurs. The 30-minute MACD lines now touch, on the verge of a bearish cross.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  11:18:49 AM
11:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  11:18:31 AM
The OEX now rises to test broken support and that 30-minute 100-pma. There are battling theories of technical analysis here. A move back over the 100-pma after testing the 130-pma would be bullish, according to theory. However, when the OEX fell through 511, it confirmed a double top with a minimum downside target between 509-509.50, depending on which shadows are included or not included. If the OEX can't bump back above the 100-pma, that solves the conflict. The 30-minute indicators now appear much more bearish.

 
 
  James Brown   9/15/200,  11:11:01 AM
Dow Components - The top three gainers in the Dow are currently Home Depot (HD) +2.65% on the Hurricane news, Caterpillar (CAT) +0.69% and Intl Business Machines (IBM) +0.67% on the UBS upgrade this morning.

Leading the losers is Alcoa (AA) -1.13%, Intl Paper (IP) -1.54% and Intel Corp (INTC) -1.19%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  11:08:21 AM
The OEX now tests that all-important 30-minute 130-pma, after having fallen (plunged) through the 100-pma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  11:04:46 AM
The OEX now challenges its 30-minute 100-pma at 511.06. Below that lies the 30-minute 130-pma at 510.35. The outcome of this test of the 100-pma could embolden bulls or bears, depending on whether there's a strong bounce from this level or a plunge through it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  11:01:23 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Unless all indicators suddenly line up in the right direction, I would not want to make a short entry until the OEX crosses through 510 and a long entry until it crosses through 513 and maybe 513.50 (depending on a Dow move above 9500), and even then I'm going to want some indicator evidence that we're making the right decision. This is opex week, when trading can be even more treacherous than usual, so cooperating volume patterns might be nice, too. The trouble is, that may not give us much upside (to 517.50, perhaps) or downside (to 506, perhaps), so we'd have to be careful on our exits if we wanted to profit. I'm going to want everything to line up, so we may not have an official Swing Trade entry.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  10:53:37 AM
Here are a couple of things I'm watching on the 30-minute OEX chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  10:35:32 AM
I have OEX information again. It appears that I didn't miss much. The OEX still consolidates above the 30-minute 100-pma with 30-minute RSI, CCI, and MACD flat.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  10:28:03 AM
Q-charts is not giving me updated information on the OEX. I obviously will not be giving any signals while that continues, since I can't study chart characteristics.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  10:13:40 AM
OEX 30-minute and 60-minute RSI have flattened. The 30-minute MACD is beginning to do so, too, as is 30-minute CCI. The 30-minute 21(3)3 stochastics have made a bearish kiss, but haven't really rolled yet. The 60-minute MACD slants up, heading toward the zero line, however, and the 60-minute 21(3)3 stochastics still head up. I'm not getting a clear signal for a bullish entry yet, but neither am I getting one for a bearish entry, and the candles still show the OEX bouncing from the 30-minute 100-pma and from above the 10-dma. So far, the candle action looks more bullish than bearish, but that has to be confirmed by a push over recent resistance near 513.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  10:08:47 AM
Brightpoint (CELL) $29.30 +6.54% Link .... stock breaking above weekly congestion of $28.00 to new 52-week high as company declares 3:2 stock split.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  10:04:07 AM
Has the former OEX symmetrical triangle now resolved into a bull flag? Could be: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  10:04:02 AM
Daimler Chrysler (DCX) $38.02 +0.26% .... United Auto Workers reashes tentative 4-year contract with the number 3 auto maker. UAW still working with General Motors (GM) $41.35 -0.43% and Ford (NYSE:F) $11.49 -1.03%. UAW said Sunday's negotiations with GM were progressing and that tone of the meeting was "professional, efficient and respectful."

Terms of the UAW/DCX negotiations have not yet been disclosed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  9:56:59 AM
As long as the OEX continues bouncing from its 30-minute 100-pma, I'm reserving judgment about any early weakness. The earliest volume patterns were positive, too, although early volume patterns can be distorted.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  9:51:36 AM
That symmetrical triangle on the OEX five-minute chart is breaking to the downside. Next watch gap support at 511.25, the 30-minute 100-pma at 511.05, the 30-minute 130-pma at 510.28, and the 10-dma at 511.53. All lie near the current level. A break through all of them would be a bearish development. A bounce from them might be a bullish one. (Note: As I typed, the OEX began breaking through some of these levels.)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  9:46:25 AM
On the five-minute chart, the OEX may have begun building a symmetrical triangle Friday afternoon, with this morning's action continuing that symmetrical triangle. On the 30-minute chart, this presents as several high-wave candles (small bodies, long shadows). Since this is a neutral formation, formed after a steep rise, the presumption is that it will break to the upside, but hurricanes that could impact the East Coast economy and other such developments are not respectful of formations on five-minute OEX charts. If this does break to the downside, we'll be watching for a test of the 30-minute 100-pma at 511.06.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  9:37:35 AM
The OEX first five-minute range spanned a rather modest distance today, inside the consolidation formation that's building, so the 50% retracement of the first five-minute range may not be much of a benchmark in early trading. Candlestick theory suggests that a candle should span a larger-than-normal distance before we consider its midpoint either support or resistance. However, the 50% retracement lies at 512.46, with the OEX currently just below that level. The test of the 30-minute 100-pma should be more important, if that should occur.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  9:27:47 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Here's how the OEX looks on a daily chart: Link Note that the OEX closed above its 10-dma at 510.50 and the 21-dma at 505.60, having bounced from just above that 21-dma on Friday. Resistance above lies at 512.67, the site of the June 17 intraday high, and again at 517.50-518, an important S/R line that dates all the way back to 1998, when the OEX spent much time testing this line. Studying the price chart alone, the OEX appears to have broken through resistance that retarded its movements for several months, then to have come back to retest that former resistance in a natural and expected manner. It appears to have bounced from that resistance, establishing it as support. We saw something similar happen earlier with the COMPX in mid August before that index launched itself higher, with indicators that looked similar at the time of the retest, so it's certainly possible that the OEX prepares itself to launch higher and test that 518 resistance again.

Is that what will happen today? Perhaps. Friday afternoon, the OEX drove back above its 30-minute 100-pma, currently at 511.04. Since driving back above that average, it has not retested it, though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest this morning. That retest can help us determine today's direction, and that's what we'll watch for first this morning. If there's a retest and support holds, we'll see if intraday indicators support a long entry. If there's no retest and the OEX launches itself up, we'll have a difficult decision, but we may look at indicators as the OEX moves up through resistance at 513.60 and see if a long entry is supported. If the OEX falls through the 30-minute 100 and 130-pma's, we'll see if indicators support a bearish entry. With this week being opex week, a lot has to pull together for us today, but we'll be watching.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  9:26:37 AM
August Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization .... Ind. Prod. rose a modest 0.1% in August, but below consensus of 0.3%. July was revised upward from 0.5% to a more healthy 0.7%.

On the capacity utilization side of things, capacity utilization rose fractions to 74.6%, which was in line with consensus of 74.6, but flat with July's 74.6%, which was revised upward from its previously reported 74.5%.

Little reaction from futures with S&P futures (sp03z) up 0.5 points at 1,016.90.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/15/200,  9:19:06 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  8:52:44 AM
The Empire State index was released this morning, and showed a reading of 18.4, up versus August's 10.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/15/200,  7:07:22 AM
Good morning. We worriedly watch Hurricane Isabel; Asia has already been hit by Typhoon Maemi. The typhoon hit South Korea on Friday. The Kospi slipped 1.80% lower today on fears about the economic damage, especially to exporters whose shipments might have been interrupted. As of yesterday, 87 people were confirmed dead and 28 were missing.

Bank of Japan governor Toshiko Fukui has set a news conference for this Wednesday, with that conference potentially market moving. The Nikkei was closed Monday for a holiday, but other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted closed down 0.39%, and Singapore's Straits Times closed down 0.28%. China's Shanghai Composite also closed down, by 0.82%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed up 1.00%.

In Sweden, voters rejected the adoption of the euro as their currency, but Estonions voted to join the EU. This morning, an economist on CNBC Europe commented that Sweden's rejection of the euro would give U.K. opponents to its adoption more confidence and might influence the U.K. against such a referendum.

J.P. Morgan raised estimates for Philips, with Philips and the embattled Nokia among the leaders in early gains in European trading. GS raised estimates for Vodafone (VOD), and the company was also among the early leaders in gains. As of this writing, most European bourses gain, but a technical analyst this morning on CNBC worried that the DAX, in particular, was ripe for losses as it hugs the bottom of its rising channel. Currently, the DAX shows no signs of retreating, however, as it gains 28.17 points or 0.80%, to trade at 3536.23. The CAC 40 trades up 26.49 point or 0.80%, to 3349.05; and the FTSE gains 26.90 points or 0.63%, to trade at 4264.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/14/200,  10:40:09 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Here's the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) chart Link with new WEEKLY retracement. Looks almost identical to this past week.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/14/200,  10:40:01 PM
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