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  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  4:20:08 PM
sp03z 1,007.70 -1.71% .... I've shown this futures contract with my "fitted" retracmenet in the past Link . This is critical near-term support level at 1,007.80 right here. Next level of retracement support would be 1,001.80.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  4:17:59 PM
Jeff- Could run the pivot for ES for tomorrow quickly, please? Looking for S2 correlation for the morning. Thanks! gumby

Using es03z H/L/C of 1,028.25, 1,006.25 and close of 1,007.25 I get... 991.92, 999.58, 1013.92, 1021.58 and 1035.92 for DAILY. I don't have the WEEKLY, but maybe Jane has posted them earlier this week?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  4:11:25 PM
Overnight Short the QQQ here at $33.28, stop $33.56, target $32.87 tomorrow morning's open.

I quickly ran tomorrow's DAILY Pivot levels and find correlation at $32.87, which would be WEEKLY S2.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  4:02:42 PM
BIIIIG volume spike in the QQQ 5-minute chart from 03:55-4:00 and this a bit suspicious. Might well be some institutional short or hedge fund type of trade for overnight protection. Almost exact volume on 5-minute interval as see earlier this morning and QQQ chart from 14:01:12 post.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:57:13 PM
Swing Trade Recap- OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
9/24: Entered a bearish OEX trade at OEX 510.90.
2/24: Profit stop at OEX 506.17.
Result for the day: +4.73 OEX points our favor.
Results for the week: +6.73 OEX points our favor.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:57:05 PM
December Crude futures (cl03z) $27.98 as tomorrow's session is already underway. Today (Wednesday's) contract high came at $28.28. I'm thinking if today's broader market sell off was "oil related," then crude futures should be north of $28.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:54:08 PM
All HE-double-toothpicks could break to the downside tomorrow if the dollar falls apart overnight. While I'm not short/put and index (have some puts in stocks), would have to be rather defensive and be more willing to hold some bearish trades overnight. Market seems VERY spooked on the dollar's weakness.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:52:12 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We exited a bearish trade at 506.17, after entering at 510.90, for a 4.73 OEX move our direction. The OEX is sitting on strong support from the daily chart, and the drop below 506 didn't result in the quick drop I expected. Of course, it's happening now, but the risk of a short-covering bounce into the close seemed to outweigh the possible $0.50-1.00 gain from staying in.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:48:33 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Exit now. Explanation to follow.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:44:18 PM
Swing Trade Signals
If the OEX doesn't move below 506 on this downward thrust, we're going to exit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:42:26 PM
03:15 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:31:18 PM
On any ordinary day, we'd be exiting the OEX now as strong daily support is touched, and conservative traders might want to do just that. That might be what I would have done if I were not calling the Swing Trades. However, this is the kind of day when it's possible to get a cascading downward move at the end of the day. While I might willingly give up the possible downward move for my own sake, I'm trying to stay in the trade until MOC orders in case we get that kind of movement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:26:58 PM
That's better. Now we need to see a move below the previous low of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:22:48 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I'm sorry to ratchet this down by $0.50, but lower the stop to 507.50, as the descending trendline is moving lower and this will now constitute a clean break of that trendline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:11:03 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Because we're so close to major support, and the drop has been so precipitous today, I expect to close this trade by the end of the day, hoping to get in again tomorrow on a bounce and rollover . . . or on a strong move up, if that should happen. This is a heads-up so you can plan your own exit strategy. If the OEX should, however, drop through the descending trendline on the daily chart, I might consider keeping the trade overnight, but that's not the way it's looking now. I'm also considering setting a profit target of 505.50, exiting if that is hit, depending on when that level might be hit and how the OEX behaves as/if it does touch that level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:08:04 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $50.80 +4.24% .... FRX gets FDA panel backing for Memantine.

Memantine ... is estimated to be from $500 mln to $1 bln. The analyst community in general is expecting a positive outcome with RBC Capital noting they believe that recent negative announcements concerning memantine in neuropathic pain (May 7, 2003) and mild to moderate AD (June 19) will not negatively impact the committee's review.

As noted in prior discussions, NTII will get royalties from FRX sales.

I'm looking to hold FRX calls to MINIMUM 52-week highs. From my understanding, this could be blockbuster drug.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:05:08 PM
FRX $51.25 +5.17% ... looking for news. NTII $6.65 +15% .... looking for news.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  3:04:04 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We're very close to important possible support on the OEX daily chart, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a climb. On the one-minute chart, a descending trendline can be drawn, cutting across at 507.40. Let's lower the stop to 508, to give the OEX a little room to overrun that trendline.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  3:03:19 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $50.75 +4.14% ... really trying to bust a move higher. Testing 200-day SMA yet again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:59:30 PM
We have a new OEX low of the day. We've seen a pattern a lot lately that I'm watchful for now. We've seen a potential bearish distribution pattern, a quick thrust downward, trapping bears, and then a climb. If it looks at all as if that might happen after this little break of the possible bearish distribution pattern, I might consider closing the play early.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:59:01 PM
Neurobiological Tech (NTII) $6.15 +6.94% .... Hi Jeff you keep doing it!! NTII making its move today, you called it last week.

I don't know about "I keep doing it", but you are correct. I checked in on NTII earlier this morning and stock was relatively flat. I also see FRX catching a bid here too, with FRX +1.99%. FDA review is Friday I think. Maybe they get in unison, and maybe somebody has gotten wind of favorable FDA news?

For disclosure, I've been holding FRX calls.

Here's an article I found, which is dated yesterday. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:55:00 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 93.78 -0.22% .... shows intra-day double bottom at $93.70. Not sure if bond market close (7 minutes from now) might find any type of dollar relief, but not unlike the major equity indices, dollar trying to show some stability at session lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:52:14 PM
The 30-minute OEX MACD is trying to flatten, of course, as the OEX holds just above the low of the day. If it manages to turn up here and price does, too, there's been bullish divergence. (Equal MACD lows, lower price low.) There's some divergence in this whole theory of divergence, however. Many technical analysts consider any divergence between oscillator and price lows to be bullish divergence, while they consider any divergence between oscillator and price highs to be bearish divergence. Other technical analysts disagree. Whatever your favorite theory, that divergence has not yet happened. I'm only pointing out the possibility. My hope is that price and MACD both are going to head lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:49:28 PM
EBAY $55.93 +1.02% ... from 14:11:51 chart, EBAY has been testing that $55.99 level multiple times. Trying to edge above here and gets a 5-minute close above this intra-day level. Should see some trend higher after intra-day pullback from $57.22.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:39:22 PM
Flextronics (FLEX) $14.99 -5.24% Link ... was halted at approx. 01:30 PM EST with news pending. Still halted.

FLEX is a contract mfg. for various semiconductor-related products. Is also a NASDAQ-100 component.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:36:47 PM
The pattern on the OEX 30-minute chart could be a "b" distribution pattern. It's that possibility that's keeping me from taking our profits here. My best guess is that the markets will be held steady until the bond market closes, or until just before the close when some start trying to front-run the expected market direction after the bond market close.

By the way, Jane, good luck with the futures Swing Trades this afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:36:44 PM
Zoran Corp. (ZRAN) $21.29 -7.7% ... Jeff: Have you heard anything on the selloff of zran. I can not find anything.(buying opportunity?)

I don't see, or can't find any news as to the -7% decline vs. SOX -3.2% decline. Not all that up to speed on what ZRAN does, but see it makes integrated circuits.

Would look for good support at $19 area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:29:35 PM
The OEX five-minute chart shows a possible inverse H&S forming with shoulders at 507 (the right shoulder hasn't begun rounding up yet) and a head at today's low. A push up through 509 would confirm that inverse H&S, so our stop seems set at the right place.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:20:13 PM
Would tend to agree with Jonathan's 14:12:16, with first test of strength being WEEKLY S1.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  2:13:57 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I don't like this action. Let's lower the stop to 509. We can re-enter if the OEX trades up to our entry and rolls over again.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:11:51 PM
EBAY 5-minute chart. Good bull entry I think. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  2:01:12 PM
QQQ $33.60 -2.63% .... here's updated 5-minute intervals. Still looking for a rebound intra-day short entry near $34.06. Making some volume spike observations, that may have $33.91-$34.06 as area to look for bounce into.

A trader that does get a short entry in this area, would then like to see QQQ close back below WEEKLY R1, perhaps hold overnight, to get some follow through downside into Thursday. Link

I mistakenly type R1 now resistance. Should have typed S1. I do this when I rush things.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:55:16 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 510.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:49:07 PM
OEX 507 finally fell. I would have lowered the stop now anyway, and will be lowering it more aggressively as the afternoon proceeds. OEX 505-505.50 is pretty strong support on the daily chart, so we need to be careful here. Be aware, too, that we're in the time of day when we usually get a push to test support or resistance, and that it's the outcome of that push that tells us much about afternoon direction. If the OEX were to immediately pop up after testing the waters below 507, for example, market participants would know that there are willing buyers below that level and the dip-buying could begin. So far, that's not happening.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:44:09 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's lower the stop to 511. I don't like the way the OEX keeps finding support just above 507, falling out of the bear flag and then trading sideways. We know what that has followed that kind of action lately!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  1:42:30 PM
01:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  1:27:54 PM
During the lunchtime lull, the OEX has been climbing in what looks to be a measured distribution pattern, this time in the form of a bear flag. While it's always difficult to see a position move against you, even temporarily, these are to be expected, especially after such a precipitous move. The OEX currently tests the bottom of that bear flag, but I wouldn't consider a breakdown confirmed until and unless the OEX moves below the low of the day. I haven't moved the stop lower because there's the potential for such a measured distribution pattern to retrace 50% of the entire move that preceded it, from today's high to today's low, and that 50% retracement lies just under our current 512 stop. At least until we get past that stop-running period that normally occurs from 1:35-1:55 ET, I'd like to keep it where it is now, but I continue to urge that some traders consider taking partial profits here or set alternative stops that are in keeping with their trading parameters.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:59:54 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I'd like to lower our stop more, but the OEX hasn't tested the 60-minute 130-pma and ascending trendline since it broke through them. However, I suggest that individual traders be evaluating their own parameters and setting alternative stops if they're not comfortable with the current wide stop. Suggestions would include the entry level, 510.90. Since the OEX now trades near the former descending trendline from the summer, some traders might want to take a portion of their profits off the table.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:59:09 PM
QQQ $33.68 -2.3% ..... would look for bearish entry on any intra-day rebound to $34.06, say BEARISH at $34.04, stop $34.37, target $33.32 by close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:48:31 PM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 463.64 +1.13% is only sector outside of energy showing a gain, and this probably due to some lower YIELD action in bonds. 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) lower by 3.3 basis point at 4.181%. Also thinking the U.S. home sales not impacted by strength/weakness of the dollar.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:46:56 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 512. This is moving so quickly that we're going to have to move our stops down quickly, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:46:07 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 93.74 -0.26% ... starting to get whacked to the downside and not boding well for equities in my opinion.

Seeing equity indices losing their WEEKLY S1s more notably now bears look to run the table in today's trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:43:50 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 513. Conservative traders might now use their entry levels as a stop.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:29:00 PM
It looks as if we're seeing a measured distribution pattern form on the OEX five-minute chart, but that's to be expected, especially during the lunchtime lull. The 30-dma lies below at 508.11, but the OEX has tended to trade more in synchronization with the 21-dma than the 30-dma. Also below that lies the important support that might be offered by the descending trendline that capped OEX upward moves throughout the summer, with that trendline now at about 505.50, depending on how the trendline is drawn and how thickly it's drawn. The OEX has bounced from that trendline once before. I'll be tightening the stop as the OEX trades nearer that trendline.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:18:35 PM
I've been waiting for the $VXO (the old VIX) to move above 22 as a first sign of increasing fear and of a move out of the congestion zone for the VIX. It almost did that during the drop, rising to 21.87, but it's dropped back to 21.75 as I type.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:15:48 PM
QQQ quick review of losing bullish day trade in QQQ. Will take note and try to not duplicate in the future. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:11:10 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 514. We don't want to be stopped out too soon on what might be a big movement. I'm more confident about entering a bearish OEX position on a break of the 60-minute averages than on the 30-minute ones because of the OEX's recent trading behavior in association with those averages. The fact that the 60-minute 130-pma break and the ascending trendline break occurred at the same place confirmed the entry. The fact that the drop accelerated when those were breached is further confirmation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  12:03:38 PM
QQQ $33.92 -1.76% ... Stoppting QQQ bullish day trade from $34.30 5-minute close here at RED #3 of $33.91. Should not have violted these two levels lower. QQQ vulnerable now to DAILY S2 of $33.68 and WEEKLY S1 of $33.73.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  12:01:50 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We have entered a bearish OEX trade with an OEX trade below 510.90. Initial stop 515, but I'll be moving that down shortly with the OEX dropping so quickly. Initial target 508, but we're looking for much lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:53:38 AM
Swing Trade Signals
It's been difficult to wait today and not be in an official trade, but I've been waiting for one of these trendlines to break. Until then, we were in the chop. This morning, it appeared that the topside one would be violated to the upside, now the lower one is being broken, but our entry is geared to get us below the 9/22 low as confirmation: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:52:05 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Enter a bearish OEX position on an OEX trade below 510.90. Initial stop 515. First target 508.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:44:39 AM
The first bounce attempt starts at the 60-minute 130-pma. With the weakness that's been occurring, I expect that bounce to fail at either the 100-pma at 513.20 or the 21-pma at 514.81, but the lower of those two numbers seems the most likely point. Did you notice how the slide accelerated once the 60-minute 100-pma was broken?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:34:53 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm watching the 60-minute 130-pma at 511.93. We'll be entering a bearish OEX position on a firm break of that moving average. The OEX has bounced from that average each time it's hit it over the last couple of weeks, so I did not want to enter ahead of that average today. Of course, in hindsight our best entry was on the turn down below the descending trendline on the intraday chart, but hindsight is always easy. If I had perfect hindsight, I'd have kept the personal bearish position I entered yesterday morning and not switched sides yesterday afternoon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:23:24 AM
There's no confirmation of the potential double-bottom on the OEX and in fact, a move back to the low of the day. This confirms weakness, not building strength.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:14:42 AM
With a move over 514.61, the OEX will confirm a double-bottom pattern on the five-minute chart, with a minimal upside target of about 515.70. This isn't a tradable upside target, of course, but we can first see whether this potential bullish pattern is confirmed--a first sign of building strength--and then whether the minimal target is hit--a second sign of building strength.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  11:00:10 AM
For those who are wondering, I'm planning on selling my personal call position in the OEX at 513. That's just below the current day's low, 513.50 support, and the 60-minute 100-pma at 513.21.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:54:05 AM
Decliners are gaining a definite edge over advancers, and down volume is now slightly bigger than up volume on both exchanges. This is a bearish volume pattern now, and shows a bearish trend from the earlier, neutral volume patterns. This signals caution to anyone in a bullish position, including me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:52:36 AM
eBay (EBAY) $57.19 +3.31% ... morning trade finds EBAY at BLUE #6 in quick fashion. Will "stack'em and rack'em" on the blue retracement. Using q-charts, trader can simply RIGHT click on their blue retracement, you should get a pop up menu, and then select CLONE. Just take the base of this CLONED retracement and stack it on top of your first 5-minute retracement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:45:56 AM
Reader Question: I scanned many a chart last night to find many demonstrating a Tasuki Gap pattern. SMH, QQQ, DIA, SPY etc...what do you think

Response: I wasn't sure whether the reader was looking at daily charts or intraday charts or whether the reader was finding bearish downside Tasuki gaps or bullish upside Tasuki gaps. I took a guess and looked at the daily charts, however. There I of course found Friday's red candle, a gap down and then Monday's red candle, and then Tuesday's white candle which did not completely fill the gap in most cases. The candle formations meet the requirements for a bearish downside Tasuki gap formation, so my presumption is that is what the reader referenced and the reader should be congratulated for having such a good eye. However, the Tasuki gap formation is usually a continuation pattern rather than a topping or bottoming formation, as far as my understanding goes, and the markets referenced were not then in a downside move. I'm not sure what relevance the formations would have when they occur during the midst of a consolidation formation. They may have relevance. I just don't know, but I do know that Nison often comments that other types of formations lose their relevance if they don't fall in the right relationship to the previous trading pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:43:02 AM
Oh my! .... ebay (EBAY) $56.73 +2.49%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:40:06 AM
CBOE Internet Index (INX.X) 164.24 +0.03% ... edging green here. Not unlike Jane's 10:22:30 comment regarding NDX, the INX.X also tested RED #6 at morning low and gets a bounce.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:39:10 AM
QQQ $34.25 -0.75% .... would look for a bullish trade in QQQ should we see a 5-minute close ABOVE $34.30. I'm kind of liking this U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 94.03 +0.04% and Tresury YIELDS starting to edge higher.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:36:19 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 307.08 -0.35% .... fractional weakness in first hour of trade. Might take a break below 306.50 intra-day to give alert for extending weakness in SPX/OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:35:13 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I can't bring myself to enter a bearish entry here. Here's why: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:33:01 AM
Millennium Pharma (MLNM) $16.37 -0.78% ... not looking like a "bid day" for MLNM with trade at RED #2 here. (see 09:47:30 chart)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:29:31 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 93.99 (unch) ... while I'm 30-minute delayed quote here, dollar firming might just find a firming equity market. Treasuries relatively flat, with shorter-dated 5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) higher by 1.7 bp, gives flattening YIELD curve look intra-day with 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) lower by 0.4 bp.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:26:17 AM
Ask the Analyst .... Jeff: thank you for promising a tutorial on that on this weekend's ask the analyst.i was hesitant and somewhat ashamed to ask about it.probably it is not surprising for you but getting time to master rhese technique is difficult,particularly as a physician.you dont have to answer this email,just wanted to express my gratitude and regards.thanks.

While I'm at it, are there some other q-chart tutorials/q-chart questions that I might try and answer? If so, send me a question and maybe I can try and answer it in a column this weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:26:14 AM
Volume patterns aren't giving many clues, being fairly equally balanced.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:24:27 AM
I'm hesitant to enter a bearish position right here because the OEX tests the ascending trendline that's been forming since Monday afternoon--a prime bounce point--and also tests the 30-minute 21-pma--another possible bounce point. The five-minute oscillators are trying to flatten, with five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics already having made a bullish kiss, but without having yet rolled up out of territory indicating oversold conditions. I keep looking, too, at how closely the OEX has been tracking the 60-minute 100- and 130-pma's over the last couple of weeks, and both those averages are just below. I also keep thinking about how tight the first five-minute range was and Jeff's weekend article about how that might relate to the day's trading. I want to see what happens as the five-minute indicators rise again. However, if there's another rollover beneath that descending intraday trendline, we may consider a bearish position from that level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:09:32 AM
We're seeing a lot of gyrations this morning. The OEX now tests the 30-minute 130-pma and looks to be falling just beneath that level. It's soon going to hit the ascending trendline from Monday afternoon through yesterday's trading, at about 513.90. The five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics are just about bottoming out, but haven't yet turned up as that trendline is approached. Just below that is the 30-minute 21-pma at 513.78. If there's no bounce here, we may be entering a short position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  10:08:26 AM
QQQ here's intra-day chart of QQQ, but retracement set at 1st 10-minutes as first 5-min was very tight. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  10:02:09 AM
I'm also watching the OEX 60-minute 100-pma and 130-pma. For the last couple of weeks, there actually appears to have been a closer correspondence with the OEX trading in relationship to those averages than to the 30-minute ones. For example, on 9/12 and 9/22, the bounces from the 60-minute 130-pma appear cleaner, and there have been multiple trades centering around the 60-minute 100-pma.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:57:15 AM
QQQ $34.33 -0.57% ... real tight first 5-minute bar will have retracement for day traders pretty tight today. Should probably use first 10-minutes to get a day trader's range.

QQQ couldn't hold DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot in early part of session, so a bearish bias forms. QQQ either side of $34.29 here, which was resistance for bulk of yesterday's trade until broken late in afternoon on bond market's close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:57:07 AM
Perhaps if we're lucky, the OEX will test the 30-minute 100-pma, as it appears to be doing now while that descending line descends further, then bounce from there, so that a break through the descending line occurs simultaneously with or perhaps at least closer to a bounce from the 30-minute 100-pma. That would give us a closer stop. However, the early action does not depict strength but weakness, and so it's possible that we'll have a short entry again, and that I'll be switching sides again in my personal trade. In that case, we've also been lucky in that we didn't enter an official trade earlier.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:52:32 AM
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) $13.15 +17.9% Link .... stock is big gainer in early session after Caterpillar (CAT) Link and FCEL announce their first joint sale of an ultra-low emissions fuel cell power generation plant in the state of California. The 250-kilowatt Direct FuelCell power plant will be used by the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts, which expect the new plant to provide energy cost savings compared to current utility rates in the LA area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:48:10 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm still watching that descending intraday trendline on the OEX, but we may be entering long soon. Disclosure: I already have a call position, entered yesterday afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:47:30 AM
Day Trade Long setup for biotech Millennium Pharma (MLNM) $16.59 +0.6%. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:41:45 AM
The OEX drop appeared to have been arrested, at least temporarily, at the 10-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:38:44 AM
The OEX has now fallen beneath the gap level and looks to be headed down to test the 30-minute 100-pma again. That average lies just above 515. Disclosure: I have a call position on the OEX.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:35:53 AM
The 50% retracement of the first five-minute OEX range lies at 516.45, but since that candle was not a larger-than-normal candle, it may be more important for us to watch the 515.83-516.22 gap level, to see if that holds support on the first retracement that usually begins in a few minutes. I wouldn't be surprised to see that retracement begin ahead of the descending trendline I marked on the 30-minute chart in my first Swing Trade entry this morning, with that trendline crossing at about 516.80, depending on how the trendline is drawn.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:28:06 AM
December Light,Sweet Crude Futures (cl03z) here's 5-minute chart and tie in some comments from PnF chart. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  9:24:19 AM
Swing Trade Signals
The Swing Trade signal is flat today. Here's the overall picture of the OEX, seen from a daily perspective: Link Obviously, the OEX is finding support at the bottom of the rising regression channel and from the 21-dma (in blue on the chart), but the OEX still faces resistance from the 517.50-518.50 level that was so important throughout most of 1998 and at times since then. Still, the OEX looks ready to charge up the chart again to test that level as well as recent highs. Complicating that picture are oscillators that threaten bearish divergence. While that divergence may not be so important on the stochastics, which can after all only measure a maximum of 100 no matter how high the OEX moves, it is more significant on the MACD. The MACD still generally trends up, but keeps making bearish touches of the two lines. Those bearish touches will untouch with a strong thrust upward, however.

That's the overall view. Here's the 30-minute picture: Link The picture here is also mixed, with bullish developments mixed with cautions. One caution is the resistance offered by the descending trendline. The other is that the OEX rise into that descending trendline took the form of a rising wedge, usually a bearish formation. These formations have not performed as expected in the markets recently, however. We'll consider a long on a move above that descending trendline, and we'll consider a bearish position if the OEX moves back down through the 130-pma. That may mean we'll be entering soon after the open. We'll be entering just ahead of resistance if we enter long, but that will give us the best stop (below the 30-minute 130-pma or 21-pma).

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/24/200,  9:14:35 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   9/24/200,  6:55:07 AM
Good morning. The speculation has already begun. Although at the G7 meeting last weekend, Japan apparently conceded to the request to stop intervening to weaken the yen against the dollar, some propose that Japan will soon resume selling its currency to weaken the yen and protect its exporters. The official story, however, was that the yen's steep climb earlier in the week had been an overreaction. Against that backdrop, the yen was weaker as the Nikkei opened about fifty points in the green Wednesday morning and soared more than 150 points into the green within the first few minutes of trading. Exporters recouped some of Monday's losses in that early trading, but the Nikkei's pattern proved to be volatile. A report indicated that an index that measures activities of service-related companies such as retailers and utilities fell a greater-than-expected 2.5% in July. As the yen firmed later in the trading day, the Nikkei dropped into negative territory, with exporters leading the index back down. By the close, the Nikkei had clawed its way back to positive territory again, closing up 27.19 points or 0.26%, at 10,502.29. Defensive issues such as the drug sector gained. Speculation that Japanese bank Resona Holdings will report massive first-half losses sent some bank stocks tumbling, but oddly enough Resona gained slightly.

Most other Asian bourses gained. The Taiwan Weighted rose 0.67%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.82%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 2.88%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng bounded up 3.21%. China's Shanghai Composite gained a more modest 0.29%.

After four days of losses, most European bourses currently gain, too. German consumer prices in five of its states fell 0.1% in the four weeks encompassing mid-August to mid-September, easing inflation worries. Italy's September inflation rate rose 2.9%, however, with prices rising 0.3% from August. Although the performance of tech stocks had been mixed in Japan, many tech stocks currently trade higher in Europe.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 trades up 30.10 points or 0.71%, to 4251.80. The CAC 40 has gained 23.45 points or 0.72%, and trades at 3289.49. The DAX has gained 25.47 points or 0.75%, to trade at 3436.49.

 
 
  Jim Brown   9/23/200,  1:31:03 AM
End of Year Special We are getting ready to produce the end of year special. We have had various success with the various offerings over the last six years and each year it becomes a little harder to top the prior year. I would like to open it up to the monitor readers.

What would you like to see as a special this year?

Email me at eoy@OptionInvestor.com

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   9/23/200,  1:30:52 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   9/23/200,  1:30:45 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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