Option Investor
Printer friendly version
  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  4:39:39 PM
QQQ $35.25 +0.59% ... from day trade short of $35.36, can either cover in after-hours at $35.26, or hold overnight. QQQ did close just below the mid-point of upward regression channel and might look for an early morning decline back near WEEKLY Pivot of $35.02. QQQ found intra-day resistance at WEEKLY R1 of $35.44 today. At $35.26, QQQ right smack in the middle of these pivot levels, so a bit 50/50 feeling here.

  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:16:07 PM
AMZN trading at $58 after an initial dip to $56.86

  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  4:02:11 PM
AMZN earnings = .11 vs est of .10
4Q Revenue guidance $1.76B-$1.91B up from est of $1.79B

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  4:01:42 PM
QQQ $35.28 +0.68% .... will stick a bid out at $35.10 into earnings.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  4:00:37 PM
The OEX could not break through that descending trendline today, but it remains above both the 30-minute and 60-minute 21-pma's, as well as above the daily 10-dma. The daily MACD has spent the last hour since I've been back alternately touching lines and separating them, so that it looks at one moment as if it's going to try to turn up through that descending trendline of lower daily MACD highs and at the next moment as if it's going to turn down under that trendline again. Other oscillators are just as confused as this day ends.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  3:56:56 PM
Looks like the AMZN NOV 60 put (ZQN-WL) trading about $3.80.

The $55 put (ZQN-WK) is about $1.65 (ask).

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:55:44 PM
Reader Question: I love your Japanese candlestick interpretations. Could you explain and speculate the patterns of two hammers in daily candlestick patterns of MMM. what would be the short term "may be" trendline you could come up with?

Response: Thanks for the compliment. I'm not really an expert on Japanese candlesticks, but do love the immediate visual interpretation that's gained from studying them. Red (or black) and white candles--it's easy to glance at a chart and tell how a stock is trading. Long shadows above candles in an uptrend--you can tell from a glance that a stock is having trouble piercing a certain level. It's trying, but falling back. However, what's counterintuitive is the hanging man candlestick (a hammer at the top of an uptrend). This is a candlestick in which there's a very long lower shadow with a small real body at the top of the day's range. That's bullish, right? Not when it comes during an uptrend, according to Nison. It's a potential reversal signal. According to Nison, that long lower shadow shows some vulnerability to lower prices (my words, not his). However, because the bulls were able to drive up the price (as shown by that long lower shadow), you should look for confirmation the next day. Is MMM going to give that confirmation? Maybe. Nison suggests that you want to see a bearish candle that closes below the previous day's close. MMM may do that. It's close, however, and we won't know until the last moment.

Having said that, I want to confess, as I have at other times, that I don't have a good feel for MMM. Every time I've seen a potentially bearish pattern develop and acted by buying puts, MMM has defied odds and climbed, so I'm personally a little afraid of MMM on the bearish side. Right now, MACD remains strong, so I would be personally wary of acting until MMM actually turns down, and then I'm not sure how far it might retreat. That climb has a lot of the look of a bearish rising wedge to it, however, and MMM has outstripped several rising trendlines and moving averages. I would suspect that it needs to come down and test $71-73, at least testing that gap if not filling it. It's perhaps got vulnerability down to $68-70. Now that I've mentioned that as a possibility, it will probably climb straight to $80, but I'm not one to short/put strength until it's shown itself to be following up on the weakness that's indicated.

  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  3:54:34 PM
AMZN traded as high as $61 today and gave anyone in the Editors Play from Monday one last chance to get some cheap puts. It is trading down about $59 now in advance of earnings.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  3:50:11 PM
All right... almost time to find out if AMZN pops or drops. Estimates are 10 cents.

Jim suggested a put in his Editor's plays.

I'm still thinking a straddle (at $60 strike) despite the expensive options.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  3:40:50 PM
It will be interesting to see if Countrywide Financial (CFC) hits any profit taking on its earnings announcement this Thursday morning. You know the shorts are still in pain as it hovers in the stratosphere near $97.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:39:48 PM
The OEX has climbed right back to that descending trendline I've been mentioning today. One version of it (including all candle shadows) crosses nearer 523.50, so I wouldn't consider the OEX safely above that trendline until it had crossed that level.

As I mentioned this morning, my research last night correlating ADX level to breakout signals on the Donchian channels led me to believe the signal offered yesterday afternoon would have qualified as an iffy signal at best. So far, that's held true today. Although the OEX currently trades higher than it did when that signal was issued, it's not much higher, and we'd have been tearing our hair out today if in a bullish trade and trying to decide what to do with that trade. That research was very preliminary, however, and I'm not sure it will always hold true. In fact, I can just about guarantee that it wouldn't, as nothing does.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  3:35:25 PM
Patient (bullish) traders may want to take a look at P N C Financial Services (PNC). The stock has broken out above the $50 mark after months of consolidation in the $47-50 range. Volume has been very strong the last few sessions indicating some conviction behind the breakout. The stock has also broken above its long-term trend of lower highs on its weekly chart while additionally breaking above resistance on its P&F chart. I do see some short-term resistance at $52.50 on its weekly bar chart.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:26:42 PM
What does SMS mean in your earlier SOHU post? What is SMS?

SMS = Short Message Service ... Messages consisting of alphanumeric characters that are sent both to and from a mobile telephone.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:26:02 PM
Here's one example of the mixture of signs I'm seeing as I return. Note how the envelopes surrounding this central average slant up, as does the central average, and the way the OEX trades in the upper half of the envelope? That's bullish. Note how the OEX can't seem to make it over that trendline? That's not so bullish, but perhaps it's just gathering up the steam to do so. Link If that's what's happening, it may need to return to that central average at least. Note the way the descending trendline could be seen as a neckline for a possible inverse H&S, though? Confusing.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  3:21:45 PM
Just an observation -- the S&P Banks Index (BIX) is very close to a new one-year high. Leading the way are stocks like GDW, ONE, WB, WFC.

  Jane Fox   10/21/20,  3:19:58 PM
Linda - Welcome back and you have summed up the day pretty well. Another day that has been very hard to read.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:17:43 PM
It's difficult to make any sense out of the market when you haven't watched the ebb and flow during the day, but from the commentary I'm reading and hearing on CNBC, it might be just as difficult today if I'd been here all day. The OEX thirty-minute 5(3)3 stochastics began rolling down about 1:30 ET. Since then, the OEX has mostly maintained its 522.25-523.25 tight range from the last several hours. The OEX may yet lose the battle to stay inside that range, as it may be doing now, but if it manages to continue that consolidation all the way until those short-term stochastics cycle down, that's at least a neutral behavior if not a bullish one. However, thirty-minute RSI just now begins its downturn. It isn't yet below 50, so that's still a rather neutral behavior. This is a lot of if-this-happens kind of suppositions, though, but it looks as if the OEX is trying today to establish 520.80-521 as a zone of support. As I study the charts, I see possible continuation H&S's across several time frames, including the 30-minute one. Completing that inverse H&S would first require the OEX dip back toward the 30-minute 100/130-pma's to form the right shoulder, however.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:10:26 PM
Day Trade Short the QQQ $35.36 +0.9% here, stop $35.47, target $35.10 by close.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:09:03 PM
Financials softened up a bit after bond market closed. BIX.X +0.64% still holding tough, but BKX.X 932.90 (UNCH), XBD.X -0.1% and IUX.X -0.2% just fractions red.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  3:06:01 PM
Cendant (CD) $20.15 +1.87% ... Jeff: I bought a partial position in CD at $18 and am looking to round up my position. Other than $21, which would be a spread triple top buy signal, do you have any other ideas for a good action point?

Not really. Perhaps another trigger, but somewhat unconventional is to keep a close eye on the Airline Index (XAL.X) 70.42 +2.14%, which was battling with our 50% retracment of 70.63 this morning (March 2000 relative highs to October 2002 lows). While CD not a component of XAL.X, I kind of like to use this sector for CD, which is heavily exposed to travel/leisure area.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  3:02:39 PM
Five-minute Keltner channels, nested, show 522.15-522.30 possible light support with 521.25 slightly stronger support.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  2:53:58 PM
Just back from the dentist, I'm trying to get my bearings. This morning, just before I left, I mentioned that the OEX would be testing a descending trendline between the then-current level and 523.80. As I returned, I see 60-minute candles lined up just underneath that descending trendline. I see 60-minute oscillators flattened and not giving many clues as to final direction, and 30-minute oscillators that give mixed indications. The 30-minute MACD is close to a bearish cross, although from above signal, but momentum and RSI turn up on this time period. The nested five-minute Keltner channels show the OEX traveling in the upper half of the channels, however, indicating an overall bullish bias on that time frame. Altogether, it's a mixed-up picture that's echoed by the mixed-up picture given by a strongly higher Nasdaq juxtaposed against a Dow in the red.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:50:43 PM
Analog Devices (ADI) $44.94 +4.46% Link ... Wedbush Morgan raising estimates for Q4 and target on ADI from $45 to $50 saying the rising tide of demand has been evident from quarterly earnings reports last two weeks and thinks ADI will suprise to the upside.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:46:58 PM
Suspicious volume spikes intra-day on satellite radio broadcaster SIRI +1.63%.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:35:48 PM
Sohu.com (SOHU) $32.88 -7.2% Link ... Did a missile just hit China-NTES,SINA,SOHU are in a freefall

Was word this afternoon that SMS growth may have slowed recently. Piper Jaffray saying that their research indicated that a number of minor issues may have slowed the rate of SMS growth, however it believes that SOHU, NTES Link and SINA Link would not be impacted by market share shift from one carrier to the other and still believes that SOHU is likely to report in line results on October 23, with any shortfall in their SMS revenues very likely to be offset by stronger advertising. Whie Piper feels they may not have properly factored in Chinese seasonality for Q4 weakness and thier forward numbers may be a bit aggressive, they maintain their "outperform" rating and $44 target on SOHU.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  2:20:52 PM
One of our readers has asked about Veritas Software Corp (VRTS), who announces after the bell tomorrow. VRTS produces and supplies storage software products and services, thus it has to compete with tech heavyweights IBM and EMC. Last quarter VRTS beat estimates by 4 cents with revenues rising more than 13%. They also guided estimates for Q3 numbers in the 13 to 15 cent range. Analysts estimates for Q3 are closer to 18 cents.

Looking at its competitors, EMC turned in strong Q3 revenue growth of 20% while IBM's revenues were a little light (only up 8.6%). I certainly can't say what VRTS might have done for the quarter but stock is looking more than a little rich with a P/E in the 193 range. It's not a recommendation but if you're expecting a big move a straddle at the $35 strike might work.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  2:20:28 PM
Veritas (VRTS) $35.20 +3.25% Link ... Any comments on Veritas. Scheduled to release earnings tomorrow...

VRTS's PnF chart has been strong, but difficult to assess risk/reward as stock achieved its bullish vertical count of $26.50 (column of X from $17.50-$20). Would simply look to have taken some profits off the table ahead of earnings, just in case.

Analysts look for company to have earned $0.18 per share versus year-ago $0.14. Last quarter (07/23/03), VRTS reported upside of $0.19 per share, when consensus was at $0.15.

Will note, bar chart Link does look to have a reverse head/shoulder pattern trying to form up here at the highs. Neckline at $36.16, head $31.17 and recent shoulder at yesterday's lows. Earnings would be the catalyst for the break to new highs.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  2:01:48 PM
Bouncing on cue is Best Buy (BBY), another OI call play. The company just announced its first ever cash dividend. In a press release the company said it plans to offer dividends totaling 40 cents a year. The initial annual dividend will be made in two payments. One of 30 cents payable on Dec. 9th to shareholders as of Nov 18th. The second 10 cent dividend is payable in January.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:57:35 PM
Current (un-triggered) OI call play AutoZone Inc (AZO) continues to build on its trend of higher lows and is about to break out above resistance at $95.00. Only then will it finally hit our trigger.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  1:40:37 PM
01:00 Update at this Link

  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:27:45 PM
Difference of opinion?

JDA Software (JDAS) announced earnings yesterday afternoon. The company beat estimates of 7 cents with net income of 14 cents a share. Revenues were up more than 17%.

Today the stock is up almost 24% to $21.64 after receiving a "short-term buy", an "out perform" and a "sell" rating. That's right, a "sell" rating. At least someone is taking profits.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:21:09 PM
Kick them when they're down...Prudential initiated coverage of Winn Dixie Stores (WIN) this morning with an "under weight". The stock has fallen nearly in half YTD and trading at what appears to be an all-time low near $8.

Albertsons Inc (ABS) also garnered an "under weight" from PRU and shares have dropped another 2% to $19.52. This confirms the close under its simple 200-dma yesterday and a retest of support near $18 appears to be a good bet.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:14:07 PM
Scientific Atlanta (SFA) is trying to breakout of a double-top type formation with an upgrade from Lehman Brothers to an "equal weight" this morning. The company announces Q3 earnings on Thursday after the close. Estimates are for 26 cents a share.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:07:07 PM
Afternoon Sector Losers:
There aren't many losers today and losses are very mild.

$INDU Dow Jones Industrials: -0.13%

DFI.X defense index: -0.10%

IUX.X insurance index: -0.18%

  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:04:58 PM
Afternoon Sector Winners:
GHA.X hardware index: +2.70%
GSO.X software index: +2.61%
INX.X Internet index: +1.68%
SOX.X Semiconductors: +1.70%

BTK.X biotech index: +2.68%

OSX.X Oil services index: 2.21%

XAL.X Airlines index: +2.20%

XAU.X gold& silver: +3.19%

  James Brown   10/21/20,  1:01:59 PM
Looks like the rally in Texas Instruments (TXN) stalled just under the $28.00 level, which is in the 27.50-28.25 region of resistance on its weekly chart. The stock is still up 6.85% on strong volume of 24 million shares.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  12:55:58 PM
Following up on the rest of the airlines, the XAL.X airline index is up about 2.24% and about to tag a fresh 52-week high.

Leading the group higher is America West (AWA) who is up 14% after reporting earnings of 60 cents a share, 32 cents better than consensus estimates. Revenues were up 13.8%.

Fellow airliners: NWAC +4.89%, CAL +4.21%, AMR +3.95%

  James Brown   10/21/20,  12:48:30 PM
Jane, I hope it keeps soaring for you!

  Jane Fox   10/21/20,  12:47:57 PM
James as a matter of fact I picked up JBLU last Thursday but keeping a tight rein on it.

  Mark Phillips   10/21/20,  12:46:46 PM
I think the most significant development during my brief interest is the action in the volatility indices. The VIX is now setting new lows at 16.33 and even the VXO (the old VIX) hit a lot of 17.52 this morning -- a level that hasn't been visited since July of 1998. Either things are fundamentally changing in the market or else we are very close to that elusive tipping point where the market drops in response to that excessive complacency currently being displayed in the VIX/VXO and other Sentiment indicators.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  12:46:06 PM
Speaking of airlines, I think one of Jane's favorite stocks to play is JetBlue Airways (JBLU). The stock is trading higher again. There was a small consolidation from $70 back to $65 and now traders are buying the dip. It almost looks like a bull flag breakout (see chart). I would be hesitant to chase it but aggressive bulls might be able to target $75.00, just be careful placing your stop. Link

  James Brown   10/21/20,  12:39:09 PM
Do you remember US Airways? They begin trading today under the new ticker UAIR. The stock is up 7.4% to $8.70.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  12:34:40 PM
Charging higher and almost filling the gap! Logitech Intl (LOGI) is surging higher by more than 20% on an exceptional Q3 earnings performance. The company beat estimates by 21 cents with net income of 44 cents a share. Revenues were up 16.6% year/year. The stock is rebounding from under its simple 200-dma yesterday to almost filling the July gap. LOGI is currently stalling under the $40 mark and point-and-figure chart resistance at $40.00.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:34:20 PM
Logitech Intl. (LOGI) $39.77 +19.7% Link ... worlds largest producer of computer mice reported quarterly net income of $21.2 million, compared with $25.7 million in year-ago period. Analysts (just 7 now) expected net-income to be $16.2 million. For 2003/04 company said it was sticking with its ambitious guidance for sales of $1.21 billion and operating income of $142 million, despite a profit warning earlier this year.

LOGI also said its board had approved a stock buy-back program of up to 40 million Swiss francs ($30.10 million) over the next 12 months.

  James Brown   10/21/20,  12:26:22 PM
Dow Transports ($TRAN) are out performing the $INDU. Contributing to the move is another drop in crude oil futures and strong earnings from Heartland Express (HTLD). HTLD announced 29 c/shares, beating estimates by 3 cents. Revenues were up almost 15%.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:17:10 PM
Darden Restaurants (DRI) $19.96 -3.84% Link ... got downside alert at $20 and would be looking bullish entry here. Looks to trade lower in sympathy with Brinker.

This morning, Brinker Intl. (NYSE:EAT) $28.54 -15% Link , which owns Chili's Grill & Bar and other restaurant chains reported Q1 earnings of $0.45, which was 2 cents below consensus. Brinker also said it now sees fiscal 2004 EPS of $2.13-$2.17 per share, which is down from prior guidance of $2.19 to $2.23. Here's Link to company's web site and quarter comments.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  12:08:11 PM
Mellon Financial (MEL) $32.19 -0.8% Link ... reports intra-day that Q3 EPS came in at $0.42 per share (ex-charges), which was in line with consensus estimates of $0.42. MEL said revenues rose 1.7% year-over-year to $1.06 billion, also in line with consensus of $1.05 billion. MEL announced it was raising its dividend to $0.16 per share from $0.14.

  Jim Brown   10/21/20,  11:53:48 AM
Vix at 16.50. How much lower can it go?

I doubt much farther but we really have nothing to compare to the new VIX levels. You should be looking at the old VIX, now the VXO. They changed the new vix on 9/22 and the 16.50 you are seeing is not a number you can compare to previous historical levels. The old vix, the VXO is only 18.30 but it did trade down to 17.89 briefly this morning.

Jim, why did they change it?

The CBOE decided that the SPX represented a much broader view of market volatility than the OEX. The old VIX was based on near the money option strikes on the OEX. The current VIX is based on a broader range of option prices near the money on the SPX. The change was expected to provide a less volatile VIX that was more representative. The lower volatility already seen in the new VIX means it could be years before it is widely accepted. We need to get used to the new ranges and live through some historical tops and bottoms first.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:52:07 AM
j2 Global (JCOM) $35.16 -19.7% .... Rodman & Renshaw raises target to $50 and says current weakness is buying opportunity for long-term investors. Firm thinks JCOM attractive with over 50% compound annual earnings growth, JCOM trades at 27-times 2004 EPS with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.54. Raises target from $36 to $50, which equates to 38-times its 2004 EPS target.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:49:13 AM
I unfortunately woke up with a swollen jaw this morning, and have managed to sweet-talk my dentist into working me into this morning's schedule. I'll return as soon as possible.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:42:44 AM
Market Volatility Index (VIX.X) 16.71 -5.16% .... received a downside alert at 16.78 this morning as VIX.X moves to levels not seen since July 1998. Bulls just need to be disciplined and not overly aggressive or out of control is my thinking. Can always go lower like the VXN.X has.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:39:41 AM
When I was doing some preliminary work with correlating Donchian channel breakouts with ADX level yesterday, I found that when ADX was near 20--just over or just under--the trades tended to result in exits just over or just under the breakeven level. ADX was 22 when the Donchian channel upside breakout occurred yesterday. That's why I said the trade would have been an iffy one.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:35:06 AM
If we had taken a bullish trade based on the Donchian channel breakout yesterday afternoon, I'd sure be worried about it now as the OEX faces that descending trendline from the 10/15 and 10/16 highs. Depending on whether the 10/16 upper shadow (30-minute chart) is included or not, the OEX either tested that trendline earlier today or will be testing it near 523.80. With daily MACD trying to break up through its descending trendline, I don't know that I would be closing the trade right now, but I'd certainly be considering setting the stop at the entry level.

  Mark Phillips   10/21/20,  10:24:43 AM
Thanks Linda and Jonathan! I think the most difficult new skill to acquire will be the ability to type with one hand!

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:19:11 AM
A new high of the day for the OEX. Yesterday, the last 30-minute close represented an upside breakout of the Donchian channels as I've set them up. Although I don't want anyone acting on the preliminary Donchian channel research I'm doing, particularly as it shows the performance is so spotty, that did suggest a higher open this morning. Of course, that information was suggested by other means, too, including the late-afternoon ramping up that produced the signal. I did some preliminary study of the performance of these trades related to ADX levels last night (so much research yet to do), because I'm trying to find a way to weed out the range-bound entries, and my initial impressions suggest that this would be an "iffy" trade with the ADX above 20 when the signal was produced. Opposite to my supposition and contrary to what I'd expect, my initial testing showed that these Donchian channel breakouts often performed worse when the ADX was above 20 and better when ADX was extremely low, such as under 15. Perhaps that means that if the signal is produced when a breakout is already mature, there's little upside left? I'm not even sure my initial impressions are correct, but since they go counter to what I would have expected, I don't think I was trying to make the evidence fit my theory. My tests were cursory, however, so need further refining. At all rate, the Donchian channel breakout on a close over 520.44 in the last 30 minutes of trading today would have had us entering a bullish trade at the close yesterday at 521.14.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:13:52 AM
j2 Global Comm. (JCOM) $34.85 -20% Link ... wow!!! down 10!!!!! is there anyway to make a play on this sweetheart???? thanks mike

Might look for rebound back to $40 area before short/put, with target at bullish support trend. Maybe use recent technicals from United Online (UNTD) $29.25 +7% Link as a guide.

Aggressive bulls might look to play UNTD as bullish after test of bullish support. UNTD was hit lower from $36 after America Online said it was going to offer a discount version.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:09:14 AM
I just have to add that Mark's new addition, Nathan, is one great-looking baby. I begged enough that Mark sent me pictures.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  10:07:28 AM
So far, the OEX has found support at its 60-minute 21-pma and the 10-dma, both near the same level, but it looks now as if it's trying to print a lower five-minute high, not confirmed until the OEX moves below the previous five-minute low. If the OEX continues to find support between 519-520 and then climbs, it will soon face a descending trendline, somewhere between 522 and 523.31, depending on whether candle shadows are included or not. Five-minute Keltner channels also indicate likely short-term resistance near 522.44, so within that range. I'm watching that MACD on the daily chart, too, watching as this morning it tries to turn back up again, threatening a move up through the descending trendline that's been showing bearish divergence since June. I believe it will take an OEX move over 524, however, before that happens.

  Jane Fox   10/21/20,  10:01:47 AM
Congrats on the new addition Mark. I also read your quote in the latest issue of Futures Magazine. Congrats on that also.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  10:00:39 AM
JDA Software (JDAS) $21.48 +22.8% Link ... reported Q3 EPS of $0.14 per share, which was 7 cents better than consensus estimates. Revenues rose 17.3% year-over-year to $58 million, also ahead of consensus estimates of $50.5 million.

Strong move through bearish resistance today and vertical count bullish to $26.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:57:22 AM
At 35.11 as I type, the QQQ's are trying to reach the previous 35.18 high of the day.

  Mark Phillips   10/21/20,  9:56:58 AM
Back In The Saddle Again After a brief hiatus, I'm back in the trenches this morning. For all those of you that have been so kind to ask, Nathan Alexander Phillips made his debut in the world last Wednesday at a whopping 9 pounds, 12 ounces. Both mom and baby are doing great and now I'm in the process of adjusting to life without sleep. GRIN

I'm back in the groove now, and I have to extend my thanks to Jeff and Linda and Jim, Jane and Jonathan over on the Futures Monitor for keeping the market rangebound in my absence!

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:53:34 AM
Here are some OEX trendlines that might bear watching today: Link

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:45:49 AM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,753.94 -0.24% .... T $20.19 -4.12% Link and SBC $21.72 -3.08% Link lead the morning loser list in the Dow. Both find tough going after tests of their bearish resistance trends.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:45:31 AM
The OEX dipped below the bearish #2 on the 5MRT system, but as yet has not had a five-minute close below that level. Instead, the OEX attempts a bounce from just above 520.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:41:40 AM
If OEX 520 does not provide the first bounce attempt, 519.40-519.80 might.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:39:02 AM
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) $61.80 +2.14% Link ... reported quarterly EPS of $1.12 which was better than consensus estimates of $1.07.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:37:58 AM
OEX 520 is going to be important to watch. Yesterday's five-minute chart had a shallow rounding-bottom shape, with 520 apparently the lip of that saucer or rounding-bottom shape. With the 60-minute 21-pma also at 520.20 and the 10-dma at 520.32, this level's significance is backed up by other measures, too.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:35:25 AM
The first five-minute OEX range hit a high of 521.77 and a low of 521. The 50% retracement of that range lies at 521.39. We can watch that midpoint in early trading as a gauge of market strength or weakness until we have other gauges we can watch. Right now, of course, the OEX trades below that midpoint, but it's in that 520.80-521 zone that has been so important in the past.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:32:14 AM
I show the OEX opening right at a descending trendline I'd drawn on my OEX five-minute chart. It's a trendline that looked inconsequential and of short-term importance only when it was drawn, but here's the OEX opening on it and moving down. I keep trying to clean up my charts, but I've grown fond of all these old trendlines because this kind of thing happens so often. I guess my charts will continue to look as if I've scattered Pick-Up sticks on them.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:28:38 AM
PACCAR (PCAR) $78.30 Link ... higher at $78.55 after reporting EPS of $1.13, which was above consensus of $1.04.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:27:11 AM
JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) $12.65 Link .... lower at $12.11 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.36, which was below consensus of $0.58.

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  9:23:38 AM
Yesterday I mentioned that the OEX had achieved its 10-dma again. So did the NDX, with the NDX move up yesterday afternoon hinting that the other indices would follow. However, I noted this morning that the Russell 2000 had not closed above its 10-dma yesterday, and neither did the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. By some other measures, too, it appears that the big caps performed better yesterday than did the small caps. Like the MACD bearish divergence that's been showing up on the OEX daily chart, this is a subtle warning. It's not a load-up-on-puts-right-now warning, but something that should be watched.

  Jeff Bailey   10/21/20,  9:19:55 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   10/21/20,  6:58:59 AM
Good morning. With Texas Instruments reporting higher mobile-phone handset sales, some tech companies started off with gains in the Nikkei. The Nikkei opened above 11,200, but soon dropped into negative territory as a profit-taking mood hit. The dollar eased against the yen, too, hitting exporters. The Nikkei closed down 130.19 points or 1.17%, at 11,031.52. Chip-related stocks had lost ground by the end of the day.

Most other Asian bourses traded higher, although the Taiwan Weighted lost 0.27%. South Korea's Kospi gained 0.44% despite reports that North Korea may have reprocessed 2500 fuel rods and that it test-fired a missile into the Sea of Japan. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference ended, with the 21 member nations asking for a restart of talks to settle the North Korean crisis and also of the trade talks that broke up in Mexico. Elsewhere in Asia, Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.71% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.85%. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.35%.

Most European bourses currently trade higher, too. In Europe, chip-related stocks do benefit from Texas Instruments' report, and technology stocks in general gain. However, ASM, a company that manufactures equipment used to make semiconductors, dropped after its Q2 loss widened although one report shows that the loss was actually narrower than expected.

Currently, the FTSE 100 has gained 23.30 points or 0.54%, to trade at 4370.80. The CAC 40 has gained 25.73 points or 0.77%, to trade at 3384.53. The DAX has gained 19.25 points or 0.54%, to trade at 3578.58.

  OI Technical Staff   10/20/20,  1:17:59 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.


Market Monitor Archives