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  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:58:25 PM
Here's something I'm watching on the OEX 30-minute chart. If this is a valid formation, then the OEX has to find support at the 30-minute 21-pma (in red) and then begin rounding up. Link It looks to me as if the 100/130-pma's may fall steeply enough that they'd be tested at about the same time the neckline was tested, but this is all just conjecture. I actually have a sell-the-rally bias right now (note how the blue 100-pma has made a bearish cross of the green 130-pma, for example), but we ought to be cognizant of information that might refute our bias.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:39:10 PM
Now the OEX violates the 30-minute 21-pma, too, although the violation is minimal at the moment and may be erased by the end of the day. As I mentioned earlier, a study of envelopes, Keltner bands, and Donchian channels pinpoints likely downside if that average is violated at between 504-508, a rather wide range. A study of the daily chart shows a possible downside near 497-500, but it would seem unlike the OEX would retrace that far without a bounce in between. I don't think I would have initiated an official OEX signal this late in the day, however, ahead of the FOMC meeting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:25:05 PM
For reference, the Nikkei's climb last night put it in range to test its 50-dma again, with that average at 10590.84, and with the Nikkei closing last night at 10454.10. The FTSE 100 closed today at 4251.30, just below its 50-dma at 4253.52. The FTSE pierced that average, but could not maintain levels above it. The CAC 40's behavior was similar, with the CAC piercing the 50-dma but closing beneath it. The CAC closed at 3306.59, with the 50-dma at 3312.11. The DAX trades longer than the FTSE 100 and the CAC 40, and had time to add more gains, closing at 3519.89, above the 50-dma at 3491.50. It appears that many of the world's bourses are poised to either climb above those averages or fail in their retests of these averages.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:17:18 PM
TheraSense (THER) $17.24 +3.29% ... session highs here after sitting flat from the open. May benefit from some of small-cap bullishness here, but higher short-interest may find some shorts getting squeezed a bit. Commented on short-squeeze potential late Thursday in market monitor and again this morning as decent looking day trade long (see 10:21:20).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  3:12:33 PM
The OEX found support, at least temporarily, at the 30-minute 21-pma and now rises back above the 60-minute 21-pma. There's still no assurance that the OEX will head one direction or the other. It might still head up to test the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, and there's beginning to be a bit of an inverse H&S-ish look to the 60-minute chart, suggesting that possibility. Indicator evidence remains mixed. The outlook suggested by the daily candle changes hour by hour, looking bullish early this morning, bearish early this afternoon, and printing a doji now. The OEX remains below those key 60-minute 100/130-pma's and below the midline of its rising regression channel on its daily chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  3:06:44 PM
Russell-2000 Index (RUT.X) 514.80 +1.65% ... notable outperformance by RUT.X over other major indices. Have seen some trader talk that mutual funds that have their quarter-end in October may be doing some window dressing, and less liquid small caps seeing the benefit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  2:57:59 PM
Bank of America (BAC) $73.58 -10.11% Link ... Prudential commenting on today's merger between BAC and FPF $39.35 +23.7% Link ... Pru thinks merger hurts BAC by roughly $4 per share based on purchase premium paid ($14.4 billion) less the present value of cost savings ($8.8 billion - Pru assumes 25% savings - not disclosed). Prudential thinks the big purchase price (large premium paid) feeds speculation about other potential transactions, with smaller banks KEY Link , PNC Link , STI Link and CMA Link as acquisition targets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:51:09 PM
The OEX drifted below the 60-minute 21-pma, but the corresponding 30-minute average continues to provide support. It's always difficult with the OEX to know when to rely on the 30-minute charts or the 60-minute ones, but I'm using a drop through the 30-minute 21-pma at 510.36 as confirmation of the violation of the 60-minute 21-pma, currently at 511.68. I'm not currently calling official trades until I feel my performance has improved, but I'm not sure whether I'd be suggesting a short trade on a move below that 30-minute 21-pma just ahead of an FOMC meeting anyway. I have a gut feeling that the market might remain choppy and range bound ahead of that meeting, and I would hate to get readers tied up in a choppy trade. That's just a gut feeling, however, but it is a gut feeling that's confirmed by observing how many 60-minute candles often line up around that 60-minute 21-pma before they finally move away from that average.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:24:03 PM
If the OEX continues to fall, the daily Bollinger bands suggest that the OEX might find support near 504.40. The thirty-minute Donchian channel suggests 505.98 might provide support. Five-minute nested Keltner channels suggest 508.26 as the next strong support. Each of these correlates to historical S/R, as the OEX has support layered in two-point increments beneath the current price. The OEX still faces the historical S/R at 510.80 and 30-minute 21-pma at 510.32, but so far, everything else is confirming the weakness that began when the OEX fell through the 60-minute 21-pma or rather when the OEX fell back from its morning high.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:17:33 PM
The VXO, the old VIX, measures 19.04, so far today printing a high-wave candle that's indicative of indecision.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:12:36 PM
The OEX tests the bottom of this morning's gap. It's fallen below the 60-minute 21-pma and the 50-dma, but still tests the bottom of that gap and has not fallen below the 30-minute 21-pma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  2:06:27 PM
If the OEX were to end the day at the current level, today's daily candle would not have confirmed the potential reversal signal produced by Friday's candle. The opening value made that confirmation a possibility, but there's currently not any follow through on that possible confirmation. So far, a sell-the-rally approach would still have been more successful than a buy-the-dip one. I think we're about to get our real test, though, with the Dow dropping below 9600.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  1:52:24 PM
I'm watching for an OEX Donchian channel breakout today, too, but there has not been one or even a close approach to one. Currently, the 21(3)3 stochastics are pinned in territory indicating overbought conditions, and at least in preliminary tests, the backtests showed that the bullish trades performed best when that condition existed. It would take a 30-minute close above 514.69 this 30-minute candle to have an upside breakout, something that seems unlikely on this 30-minute candle. I mention it only because we're still in that period when we could have a stop-running push.

Thirty-minute ADX measures 23.45, however, and my backtests also showed, at least preliminarily, that the trades were iffy when the ADX was above 18.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  1:50:49 PM
01:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  1:42:48 PM
The nested five-minute Keltner channels show that the OEX has almost reached a level of equilibrium, with the central averages of all three nested channels nearly aligned with each other. That leaves three choices: continued consolidation at this equilibrium level, an upside breakout toward 514.75, or a downside breakdown toward 508. Helpful, wasn't that? I've found these nested channels to be useful, however, when the shortest-term band has cycled all the way to the outer, longest-term of the three I watch. That shows me that the OEX is getting oversold or overbought on a short-term basis, and confluences of the central averages and/or channel boundaries have been pretty good at showing me where next support or resistance might be found.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  1:28:55 PM
Sorry for my absence, but I had difficulty accessing the Market Monitor for a few minutes. The OEX has now produced four hourly candles lining up along that 60-minute 21-pma. As I mentioned earlier this morning, the OEX has a habit of lingering near that average while it produces from 3-8 hourly candles. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see even more hourly candles lining up near that average as the index gets steadied ahead of the FOMC meeting, it's certainly plausible that it could now move away from that average by using it for leverage and bouncing or by plunging through it. Indicators are of course mixed, not giving clues as to which it will be. I'm using this morning's gap (and possibly the 30-minute 21-pma which is slightly lower) as confirmation that the OEX has dropped through that 60-minute 21-pma and I'm watching the 60-minute 100/130-pma's as overhead confirmation.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:33:05 PM
Golden Telecom (GLDN) $26.77 -3.6% Link ... Russian-based telecom and Internet service provider with bulk of operations in Moscow, Kiev, St. Petersberg and Nizhny Novgorod.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:29:49 PM
OAO Rostelecom (ROS) $11.36 -7.5% Link .... Russian-based communications company and a national operator of long-distance and international telecom services.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:26:52 PM
Vimpel Communications (VIP) $64.27 -3.4% Link ... Provides wireless telecom services in Russia

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:25:16 PM
Mobile TeleSystems (NYSE:MBT) $78.49 -2.49% Link .... Provides mobile cellular services in the Russia.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  12:24:48 PM
As of a few minutes ago, volume patterns were bullish, with adv:dec ratios at 21:10 for the NYSE and 19:11 for the Nasdaq. Up volume was more than double down volume on the NYSE and about 2.9 times down volume on the Nasdaq. New highs measured 303, with only 11 new lows. Total volume was 596 million on the NYSE and 727 million on the Nasdaq.

Despite those strong volume patterns, the OEX at least clings to its opening level without making much headway. Is this a measured accumulation pattern or a measured distribution one? I'm not sure. The OEX pattern on the intraday charts could possibly be a bull flag, although on the shorter-term intraday charts such as the five-minute chart, it certainly doesn't look much like a flag. It doesn't look like much of anything that's recognizable as a pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:19:57 PM
Russia's Moscow Times Index ($MTMS) 6.473 -8.3% Link plunged more than 585 points after Russia's richest man and CEO of AO Yukos Oil was arrested on fraud and tax evasion charges.

Story ... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:10:08 PM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 459.71 +0.38% .... Bear Stearns saying it revised its 2004 semiconductor industry revenue and growth forecast upward for 2004. Bear Stearns revises upward from 15% to 19% or $177.4 billion to $188.1 billion and ASP growth from 3.8% to 5.5% along with unit growth from 10.3% to 12.8% year-over-year. Bear believes 2004 is going to experience end market growth from 1) 15% year-over-year PC unit growth driven by corporate IT spending, 2) Acceleration in 2.5 G handset replacements, 3) continued strength from consumer electronics (DVD, digital camera, high def. TV)

Bear Stearns says it feels Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) $31.33 +0.8% and Samsung warrant the firm's "outperform" rating.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  12:04:48 PM
The nested Keltner bands on the five-minute chart show that support is layered fairly strongly between the current level and 511, with some support also offered just above 510. This coincides with information about support we have from other sources, such as the 60-minute 21-pma at 511.90 and 50-dma at 511.66, and then the 30-minute 21-pma at 510.40. That 30-minute 21-pma rises, and may meet the OEX about the time it hits the bottom of this morning's gap if the OEX falls far enough to test that average.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  12:01:45 PM
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) $56.36 +1% ... Announces that the U.S. District Court or the Southern Dist. of New York granted judgement in for of TEVA, ruling that TEVA's Abbreviated New Drug App. for its Fosinopril Sodium Tablets, 10mg, 20mg, and 40mg, which is a generic version of Bristol Myers' (BMY) $25.19 +0.84% did not infringe on U.S. Patent No. 5,006,344.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  11:46:22 AM
11:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  11:45:09 AM
The Dow Jones Transportation Index is not only above its 50-dma, but is also above its 21-dma. Thursday and Friday, it tested that 21-dma and today moves above it, but hasn't yet been able to break out of the possible bull flag in which it retreats. Over the last couple of weeks, it's been dealing with resistance at 2875. I wouldn't consider any bull-flag breakout confirmed, if such a breakout should occur, until that 2875 level is cleared. However, if the TRAN does break out, it will have created a higher low on the daily chart. As with many other indices, the 5(3)3 stochastics hook up. ADX is 26.42, with +DI over -DI. Since a strong $TRAN is essential to any recovery theory, I monitor the $TRAN's health from time to time. Right now, as with many other indices, it's not looking all that bad, but neither is it giving strong signals that it's going to confirm that bull flag and break to the upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  11:24:25 AM
Was this morning's OEX 514.69 high a close enough approach to the 60-minute 130-pma at 515.78 that we can consider that approach and subsequent retreat a failed test of the moving average? Because of the OEX's tendency to linger near its 60-minute 21-pma through at least three hourly candles and sometimes many more, I haven't been seriously watching its gyrations until now, and I'm still not entirely convinced that the OEX won't linger near this average until after the FOMC meeting concludes. It's difficult when an index hovers near a specific average to know when it might be breaking down below that average and when it might be launching itself higher, using that average as leverage. Which bounce from that average or decline from it is the real one? If the OEX consolidates until the FOMC meeting concludes while the daily 5(3)3 stochastics cycle up and relieve oversold pressure on a daily basis, that doesn't bode well for what happens after those stochastics turn back down, though.

Those watching for a breakdown might pay attention to the bottom of this morning's gap, with a move below that level confirming a drop below the 60-minute 21-pma. However, I'm afraid that such a move might come during the stop-running push that often comes just after the lunch lull, and that won't be a good time to judge what's happening. Those stop-running pushes during that time period sometimes--but not always--get reversed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  11:14:01 AM
It should also be noted that the OEX 50-dma lies at 511.67, with today's low so far at 511.82.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  11:07:46 AM
The OEX retraced almost exactly 50% of this morning's gap, with that level near 511.83 and a five-minute candle low at 511.88. As I type, the OEX is moving back above the 60-minute 21-pma. Next resistance is now close overhead, however, at the top of this morning's gap. Five-minute Keltner bands confirm that level as possible resistance, and there's now a descending trendline from this morning, now just above the top of that gap. Lest this all sound too bearish, however, it should be noted that it's possible that today's pullback could be a bull flag.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   10/27/20,  10:54:12 AM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies Part II

One thing you should be aware of is that although the "maximum yield" formula is based on the initial collateral requirements, the results can change due to Maintenance Margin. This is the amount of cash (or securities) required to offset the changing collateral requirements of the written options in your portfolio. As the price of the option (and the underlying stock) changes, so does the maintenance margin. With (short) Put options, the margin requirements can increase when the underlying stock price falls and also when it rises significantly. The reason is the manner in which the collateral amount is determined (with the exchange formula) and traders should always consider not only the initial margin requirement, but also the maximum margin needed through the life of the position. Option writers occasionally have to meet calls for additional margin during adverse market movements and even when there is enough equity in the account to avoid a margin call, the need for increased collateral will make that equity unavailable for other purposes. Consider these facts carefully before you initiate any "naked" option positions. Hope that helps! Ray

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  10:48:36 AM
This morning, the OEX opened just above the 60-minute 21-pma. Usually when the OEX crosses the 60-minute 21-pma, it lingers near that average while at least three and sometimes many more hourly candles form. Each candle may not touch that average, but the OEX tends to consolidate near that average for a while before deciding which direction it's going to launch itself. Since that consolidation can sometimes requires days' worth of 60-minute candles, but usually requires at least three hours' worth of those candles, I haven't been anxious to leap to any decisions today. Currently, the OEX just returned to the support I identified in my 10:29 post and also retests that 60-minute 21-pma, currently at 512.04.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   10/27/20,  10:45:19 AM
Spreads/Combos & Premium-Selling -- E-mail Replies

Attn: Naked Puts Editor

I just started reading your section as a trial subscriber and I am confused about the profit potential (you call it "max yield") listed for the naked put plays. I know that there is a certain amount of money required in my account when I sell a put (collateral) because I may need to buy the stock but I don't have the same results as you when I do the math. Maybe I am doing it wrong but I don't know how you are getting your numbers. Please help...WM

First, we need to review a few terms with regard to portfolio margin requirements.

INITIAL MARGIN -- The initial margin is the amount of collateral you must have in your account to initiate the position. The most widely used margin requirements are based on the regulations at the CBOE: Writers of uncovered puts or calls must deposit and maintain 100% of the option proceeds* plus 20% of the aggregate contract value (current equity price x $100) minus the amount by which the option is out-of-the-money, if any, subject to a minimum for calls of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate contract value and a minimum for puts of option proceeds* plus 10% of the aggregate exercise price amount. However, a number of discount online brokers use the following (more conservative) formula for collateral requirements:

The initial premium received plus 40% of the underlying issue's price, minus the out-of-the-money amount.
- or -
The initial premium received plus 20% of the underlying issue's price.

This is the formula we use when calculating the initial return on investment (max yield) for candidates in the Naked-Puts Section. (Cont.)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  10:29:26 AM
There were two five-minute closes above the top of Friday morning's gap, but the OEX now turns back inside that gap. The nested five-minute Keltner channels have been rising, catching up to the OEX, showing first support now near 512.40-512.75, with this morning's open within that zone. That makes sense as first support from a couple of different perspectives, too. Below that lies the 510.60-511 support.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:21:20 AM
Day trade long ... TheraSense (THER) here at $17.05, stop $16.73, target $17.60.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  10:11:57 AM
Correction to this weekend's Market Wrap. The Dow fell 23.9% in two days Oct. 28 and 29, 1929, not 1987.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  10:11:08 AM
So far, the OEX five-minute candles are lining up just underneath the top of Friday's gap at 514.13. The candle shadows are piercing that level, but the candle bodies have all been closing beneath it. If the current five-minute candle should close above that level, it will be the first five-minute candle to close above the gap since Friday morning. We've still got several minutes to go, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  10:01:00 AM
The OEX continues to look overbought on a five-minute basis, but the nested five-minute Keltner bands are rising underneath the current price, so that it looks even less likely that the OEX would pull back to 510.30 on the first pullback. Nearest support has risen to this morning's opening level, coinciding with gap support, with more support layered between 511.40-511.80, historical and gap support from the daily chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:45:55 AM
The OEX open above Friday's closing level sets up the potential for Friday's reversal signal on the daily chart to be confirmed. It's far too early to draw the conclusion that that's what will happen, and I'm still in a sell-the-rally mode while the OEX remains below its 60-minute 100/130-pma's, but I'm trying to stay aware of all possibilities. The daily 5(3)3 stochastics hook upward and so does RSI, but both can be turned right back down again if the OEX declines strongly. Just don't get wedded to one premise this early.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:41:35 AM
The OEX gapped above the 60-minute 21-pma at 512.17. Perhaps we will get a test of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's at 516.12 and 515.79, but much depends on how the OEX behaves during the first retracement beginning about now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  9:41:31 AM
Intl. Paper (IP) $38.03 -1% ... reported quarterly earnings of $0.24 (ex-items), which was a penny below consensus. IP said revenues were unchanged versus year-ago quarter at $6.4 billion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:36:52 AM
The OEX first five-minute range included a high of 514.21 and a low of 512.53. The 50% retracement of that range lies at 513.37. That might be important to watch in the first retracement that usually begins in a few minutes, but since the OEX gapped strongly, that 511.12-512.53 gap zone might be more important to watch if the OEX continues to retrace. Currently, the OEX tests the 50% retracement of the first five-minute range.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:34:15 AM
On a five-minute basis, the OEX looks a little extended now, as if it might need to pull back to 510.50 or so. Of course, it may not pull back at all. It's now facing 514 resistance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:30:30 AM
After gapping up this morning, the OEX now tests Friday morning's gap.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/27/20,  9:26:43 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  9:17:46 AM
It looks as if the U.S. markets will open higher today. However, as long as the OEX is below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's (blue and dark green averages on the linked chart), I consider bullish trades as countertrend trades: Link Backing up that impression is the fact that the OEX currently trades within the lower half of its ascending regression channel and that it will be testing that midline at about 515.25-515.50, just ahead of its test of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's: Link Since Friday's candle was a possible reversal signal, I suspect we'll get at least a day or so of consolidation if not gains. The OEX could be on its way to forming a higher low. With that possibility in mind, I'm not particularly bearish, at least until the OEX violates 497-500, but since the OEX still trades below those key averages and in the lower half of this regression channel, I still stick with the idea that bullish trades are countertrend trades just now. For that reason, I'll be unlikely to participate in the bullish side today, especially ahead of the FOMC meeting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/27/20,  7:13:40 AM
Good morning. Despite a yen that was rising against the dollar in early trading and news that U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow might criticize Japanese currency intervention efforts when he testifies before the U.S. Senate this week, the Nikkei opened higher Monday morning. Seeing a volume spike at the open of the afternoon session, it closed up 118.42 points or 1.15%, at 10,454.12. Individual stocks and sectors reacted to earnings news. Honda gained ahead of tomorrow's earnings report, but other automakers were mixed. Toshiba dropped in early trading after it mentioned pricing concerns due to competition and lowered its full-year profit forecast. Financials weakened after brokerage Nikko Cordial reported declining revenues. Banks led the gains, despite a media report that claimed that Resona's insolvency was hidden so that it could receive government funds in a bailout. If insolvent at the time, it should not have been eligible for those funds.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.68% and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.80%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also gained, but only 0.11%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 1.17% and China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.89%.

Most European bourses currently trade higher, although Russian stocks plunged today. Although I don't usually report on the Moscow Times, it's perhaps notable that the bourse dropped 13.11% today. The country's richest man, CEO of AO Yukos Oil Co., was arrested and charged with tax evasion and fraud.

In Germany, Bayer (BAY) and Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) announced that the U.S. FDA had agreed to a Special Protocol Assessment for a Phase II trial of a kidney cancer drug. Bayer rose in European trading. Two other pharmaceutical declined, however. Germany's Schwartz Pharma lost after reporting net income below analysts' expectations. Germany's Schering lost after it said EPS would be 3-6% lower than in 2002.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 has gained 21.40 points or 0.50%, to trade at 4260.40. The CAC 40 has gained 41.45 points or 1.27%, to trade at 3307.72. The DAX has gained 66.08 points or 1.91%, to trade at 3518.72.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/26/20,  8:18:49 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

The S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) was the only index to post a gain this week. The 10-year Treasury posted a gain in price, as YIELD ($TNX.X) fell.

Here is a look at the last three weeks WEEKLY pivot matrix along with next week's WEEKLY matrix. Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/26/20,  8:18:40 PM
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