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  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  4:32:36 PM
Discussion on CNBC regarding short squeezes. NFLX $59.06 +4.56% Link was one of the stocks discussed. We noted this one at $41 as short squeeze candidate.

I've got that PnF chart burning a hole in my brain, when I looked at TRMB's PnF chart and short interest today. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  4:25:37 PM
Analytical Surveys (ANLT) $4.30 +91% .... stock fetched over $500 per share in 1998.

There's something going on in this segement, and it may be something other than recent earnings out of GRMN and TRMB. Will try and look further for any news, but anything that had to do with surveys or mapping was overly bullish today.

 
 
  Jim Brown   10/29/20,  4:10:54 PM
EDS halted, cutting jobs

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:58:55 PM
Lowrance Electronics (LEIX) $21.42 +16.6% ... also makes GPS units and their ever-popular "fish finder" water depth meters.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:53:08 PM
Rogue Wave Software (RWAV) $5.75 +14.5% .... stopped on day trade long

Was trying to post this when writing 03:15 update, but must not have hit the "submit" button.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:44:29 PM
Whether due to my own impressions after my chart study pre-market opening or the subliminal message left by Jane's notation yesterday that markets might be range-bound today, I'm grateful to have concluded early this morning that markets might be choppy today. Today's kind of trading pattern is deadly for all traders but especially those trading the SPX and OEX options. I'm glad to have been out of the market today.

Benchmarking the hypothetical Donchian channel breakout long signal yesterday, we would still be in the trade on the basis of either type of exit I tested. Those exits are based on the closing value of the 30-minute candles and not on intra-candle moves unless those moves go lower than a four-point stop from the entry level. One benefit of this type of trade is that it gives you an easy answer for whether you should stay or exit. Whether that answer is the right one for this particular trade remains to be seen.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:38:38 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) ... $52.70 +17.18% ... traded day trader's stop of $52.75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:28:54 PM
Jeff, sometimes you ask for help with candlesticks and now I have a question about P&F charts. This afternoon, I've been scanning a lot of P&F charts and notice that an unusual number of stocks have already met and exceeded their original P&F upside targets. Some of them are producing new buy signals, of course, but would this be an indication that markets are overbought? Would it be a danger signal, or does the fact that the new P&F buy signals keep getting produced negate any concerns?

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  3:24:59 PM
Indian software firm Infosys Technologies (INFY) has come a long way from its lows near $40 from April & May. Actually, it has more than doubled and the stock appears to be breaking out of a bull flag consolidation pattern today. Bullish traders may want to evaluate the stock for new entries but watch out for the old highs near $86.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  3:19:13 PM
The OEX continues to test that descending trendline from 10/15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:05:58 PM
Fannie Mae (FNM) $73.40 -2% ... halted on trade imbalance earlier after filing 8-KA.

Some brokers beginning to rumble this was no big news.

This may not be big news, but may also have had some of the regional banks trading soft today. S&P Banks (BIX.X) 328.43 +0.14% trying to edge back to post FNM/FRE declines.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  3:05:06 PM
The put to call printed .56 for the past half hour, with the VXO 17.40.

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/29/20,  3:04:05 PM
Jeff, how about finding a GRMN once a day. Heck I would be happy with once a week. Great Trade!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  3:02:17 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $54 +20% .... X gets another square at $54.

Its these kinds of trades that always has me intrigued about triple-top buy signals. You just never know. They can really unwind if shorts have been building positions, using the resistance of the triple-top as leverage, but when it gets broken, all heck can bust loose.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:56:11 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $53.15 +18.4% .... X gets another square at $53. Day trade bull also sees trade above BLUE #4. Those day trade bulls that are using a trailing stop, just keep snugging higher. How about $52.75....

"There's no way GRMN could trade BLUE #5 at $55.23".... is there?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:53:47 PM
Red Hat (RHAT) $14.93 +7.72% .... RHAT rolling quite well. Do you hold until December or are you setting stops?

Yes... "the hat" is on a roll and today's trade at $14.25 achieves its bullish vertical count (based on Dorsey/Wright and Associates' chart). How about setting a profit stop at $14.25?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  2:50:57 PM
The OEX keeps turning down from its tests of that descending trendline from 10/15, but it's persistently testing that trendline, too. The ascending trendline from 10/24 rises underneath the current OEX price, now slightly above the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, with the triangle narrowing toward its apex. The apex will be hit sometime early tomorrow afternoon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX remain within the narrowing confines of that triangle until today's close.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:46:47 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $52.00 +15.6% Link .... X gets another square. 52-week highs here. Supply should be limited.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:45:32 PM
One other thing for you & James: GE broke above its 100/130 on the 30-min chart today, as well. First time in quite a while; I can see how that would get the interest of some mutual fund managers, as well.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:40:57 PM
Microsoft is printing a new low of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:40:27 PM
It creates confusion, James. I suspect that GE is part of what's fueling the outrageous bids today. I don't expect GE to resist the kind of selloff that low-17 VXo readings portend, but so long as the ES holds above 1038, we have to respect those buy signals.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  2:37:56 PM
Hmm...I think Jon has been following General Electric (GE) closer than I have lately but the stock, once a proxy for the market, is bouncing from its 200-dma and $28.00 level. Currently, GE's technical indicators (MACD, stochastics, RSI, momentum) are all about to turn or have already turned bullish. Even its weekly stochastics and RSI are turning bullish. Could we see another big sweeping multi-week run higher for the blue chip? And how does this sit with the VXO screaming "market top".

 
 
  Ray Cummins   10/29/20,  2:32:54 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Portfolio Activity

As the market looks for new catalysts to support the current rally, it's not surprising to see investors pour money into news-driven plays, especially among the big-cap issues. One of the recent laggards in the biotechnology group is Biogen (NASDAQ:BGEN) but after the company's quarterly report, the future looks rosy. Biogen said Tuesday that third-quarter sales of its flagship drug Avonex, a treatment for multiple sclerosis, climbed 14% and investors applauded the news. The bullish activity carried over into today's session and the stock is up another $1.32 to $40.62 on heavy volume, which suggests further upside potential. Based on the technical change of character, it may be time to "go long" on this biotech bellwether.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  2:30:15 PM
Caterpillar (CAT) is bouncing from the $70 level and has reclaimed the simple 50-dma. The stock is hinting at another bullish upturn with stochastics and RSI edging higher but there is potential resistance between $74 and $75, which is the bottom of the gap down two weeks ago.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   10/29/20,  2:28:34 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Portfolio Activity

With regard to Linda's comment on Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM), our readers might be interested to know that the OIN recently listed FNM as a candidate for a "bearish" call-credit spread (at $75). Here's a link to play: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:27:55 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $51.70 +14.7% .... really starting to see some legs now. Day trade bull from 10:04:42 (not you call holders), can look to sell BLUE #3, which was intra-day target, or snug a stop just under $51.25

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  2:24:42 PM
Is this an entry point on JetBlue Airways (JBLU)? I noticed that a retracement tool measuring from the March low to the October high doesn't help but if you measure from the $30.00 breakout in April to the October high, the recent bounce is a perfect rebound off the 38.2% retracement level.

On the other hand, the light volume might indicate we're just seeing an oversold bounce. With obvious resistance at $60.00 and its 50-dma a roll over under the $60 mark might be an aggressive entry for bearish positions.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:22:35 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $51.00 +13.2% Link X gets another square at $51.00.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  2:20:34 PM
Buy Program Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,046.43

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  2:10:53 PM
Wow, Jim. That Fannie Mae chart you posted on the Futures side of the Monitor is scary. Sure wish I'd had some FNM puts in my portfolio.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  2:10:51 PM
One stock I am thinking about adding to the OI call list is Ingersoll Rand Ltd (IR) The stock turned in very strong earnings several days ago and shares have broken out above multi-week resistance at the $60.00 mark. Its P&F chart shows a bullish triangle breakout, which is one of the most successful bullish patterns to trade.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   10/29/20,  2:09:13 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Among the groups contributing to the recent upside in the market, semiconductor stocks have been extremely supportive and our synthetic position in Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) has proven to be a very successful recommendation. Today the stock hit a new 52-week high, offering speculative traders yet another chance to "lock-in" excellent gains in the bullish play. One other stock worth mentioning is Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), which seems to have a life cycle similar to the Energizer Bunny -- it keeps going and going and going! We started offering bullish positions on the issue back in February and 6 months (and 400%) later, it still looks like a good candidate for "premium-selling" or a put-credit spread.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  2:06:57 PM
The last 30-minute close was above 517.62, so we would not have yet exited the hypothetical long Donchian channel breakout trade yet based on that exit that requires a 30-minute close two points below the previous 30-minute close.

When I speculated earlier that this might be a good time to enter a bearish trade, perhaps I should have suggested that entry. I'm still afraid of range-bound trading ahead of tomorrow's GDP number, however, with the OEX perhaps ending the day today perched on some key level, ready to either make us happy campers tomorrow morning or else stop us out immediately. Since I'm not privy to the GDP number to be announced nor psychic enough to gauge whether there will be a sell-the-news or buy-the-news type event, I'm not anxious to get into a trade that may work great but that seems like gambling now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  2:03:29 PM
Microsoft has printed a new low of the day just now, down 1.29%. Everyone who has bought and held since noon has now been either round-tripped or is under water. We call that a successful distribution operations, and I recommend a golfclap for the specialists.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   10/29/20,  1:56:46 PM
Spreads/Combos/Premium Selling -- Portfolio Activity

Internet stocks have succumbed to profit-taking today amid the weakness in Netease.com (NASDAQ:NTES) -- its shares fell over 20% -- and some of the stocks in our portfolio have been affected by the activity. On the positive side, the (bearish) premium-selling position in Sohu.com (NASDAQ:SOHU) is performing very well with the sold call comfortably "out-of-the-money." At the same time, Sina Corporation (NASDAQ:SINA) is on the retreat and with the short put (in our bullish credit spread) at $35, it is definitely one to "watch" in the coming sessions.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  1:52:00 PM
To benchmark the hypothetical OEX long trade based on the Donchian channel breakouts, we would be exiting at the conclusion of this 30-minute period if the OEX closes this period at or below 517.62.

Hypothetical trades aside, is this a good time to enter a bearish OEX trade? The VXO hints that it might be. The OEX decline once it hit that descending trendline from 10/15 hints that it might be. The nested five-minute Keltner channels do more than hint at the need for a pullback--they scream it--but that's been true all day today. The 1.35% and 0.675% envelopes surrounding the 60-minute 21-pma also hint that it might be time for a pullback, but the OEX sometimes follows those envelopes up for a while and there's that 524 upside target predicted by the confirmed inverse H&S. The truth is that I'm having difficulty convincing myself of taking any step at all the afternoon before an important economic release the next morning.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  1:50:35 PM
Ouch! Talk about "sell the news"... shares or Netease.com (NTES) are down 24% or $15.80 on its earnings release that came out last night. The company missed by 2 cents with net income of 30 cents/share. Revenues were up 96%.

I actually thought about suggesting a straddle on the earnings announcement but options on these Chinese Internet stocks are expensive. NTES closed at $65.84 last night and the 65 strikes could have worked. With the gap down this morning the NTES NOV 65 CALL went from $5.40 to $0.40 while the NOV 65 PUT went from $4.50 to 15.70. It would have cost you almost $10 but you could have made $5.70.

Of course a big part of the risk here is there was no way to tell how big of a reaction the stock was going to see on its earnings news and with $10 invested you would need a huge move one way or the other for the straddle to work.

 
 
  Jane Fox   10/29/20,  1:44:10 PM
Omnivision Technologies (OVTI 58.30 +20.43%) is a stock I love to hate. I had a buy on it at 46.75 but I didn't take it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  1:40:01 PM
Here's an update of the 60-minute OEX chart I've posted several times over the last few days: Link Note how the OEX has so far behaved as it approached the upper, descending trendline.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  1:35:43 PM
The put to call ratio is now .54, VXO 17.16. The intraday oscillators are running upward and peaking on the shorter intraday cycles. Risk is very high for bulls on these readings, but the price remains firm at yesterday's highs.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  1:31:24 PM
For traders still following Sirius Satellite (SIRI) the company announced earnings this morning. SIRI turned in a loss of 11 cents, which was a penny worse than estimates but much improved over last year's loss of $1.56.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  1:28:12 PM
If we were trading the OEX based on the Donchian channel breakouts I've been testing, we would not yet have exited the long trade entered yesterday afternoon at the 515.90 close of the 2:30 candle. That system has delivered two good (well, so far this one is good, but the gains are unrealized as yet, even the hypothetical gains) trades this last week. It's looking like a sure thing, isn't it? Don't bet on it. My back tests show that this system is great at identifying breakouts that run for lots of points. Catches them every time, including one that ran for more than 35 points in one of my backtests before the trade was exited. However, it also identifies lots of trades that don't do so well, and can be a disastrous system in certain time periods, at least as it's set up now. For now, we have to stick to using it to confirm our impressions, as an indicator of sorts.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  1:24:49 PM
The RLX retail index is at its high for the day.

One retailer doing its best to contribute to the move is Nordstrom Inc (JWN). The high-end retailer's stock has nearly doubled from the $16 level last May. Shares are up another 2.11% today after Credit Suisse First Boston upgraded JWN from "neutral" to "out perform" and raised their price target from $24 to $35. JWN's earnings are expected on Nov. 20th and estimates are 20 cents a share.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  1:19:48 PM
Black Box Corp (BBOX), the computer networking company, is down 5.5% on its disclosure that the company is under a formal probe by the SEC. The stock is up off its lows for the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  1:18:55 PM
The OEX has reached a new high of the day. It approaches our target from yesterday--520--where it will find resistance from the descending trendline off the 10/15 high. That's also a level of historical S/R. The inverse H&S upside target is near 524, however.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  1:11:32 PM
The OEX retreated only as far as 517.76 before pushing up again. Will it make it above the previous high of the day this time? Be careful, as we're in the lunchtime lull, when even lower volume means that even a mediocre buy (or sell) program could have an exaggerated effect. We're nearing the stop-running time of day, although it's usually a few minutes later than this.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  1:05:49 PM
The DFI defense sector index is up 1.66% and nearing 52-week highs after Boeing (BA) announced earnings this morning. BA beat by 5 cents with net income of 32 cents per share. Revenues were down 3.5% but above analysts consensus. Northrop Gruman (NOC) also announced earnings this morning. The company beat estimates of $1.00 with $1.21. Revenues soared by 57%. Shares of NOC are up 3.36% and above resistance at $90 and its simple 200-dma.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  1:03:27 PM
My pleasure, Jeff! You're lucky they're not dogging you for not piling them into NTES or SOHU. It used to be that to keep up with inflation, one didn't need to expose their capital to the risk and vagaries of the market. No more, thanks to Al Green and the Rookie.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  1:00:53 PM
Hmmm... Jonathan ... My mom and dad are seniors. Maybe I could have you call my dad up and tell him to quit beating on me for not buying more of that Pacholder High Yield (PFH) $8.85 +1.37% and its loftier yield earlier this spring.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  1:00:13 PM
FYI: Shares of Lexmark Intl (LXK) are trading higher (up $1.22) despite news crossing the wires that it has received an "unfavorable copyright ruling". Traders will also note that today's high is near resistance at $75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  12:58:26 PM
First support on this OEX pullback, if it should continue, should be from the current OEX level down to about 517.30. That 517.30 level keeps coming into play today. (See my 11:49 post.) A drop below that sees next support between 515.75-516.25, according to the nested five-minute Keltner bands and according to the support likely offered by the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, both now in that zone.

 
 
  James Brown   10/29/20,  12:53:59 PM
In response to the FDA notice on JNJ's stents...investors are bidding up competitor Boston Scientific (BSX), who produces the Taxus drug-eluting stent that competes with JNJ's stents overseas. The Taxus stent is not yet approved for the U.S. but expectations are for an approval soon. BSX is up 2.44% to $67.15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:52:40 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $49.81 +10.7% ... upside alert at 5-MRT Blue #2. Now at a psychologically round $50.00. BLUE #3, which is day trader's intra-day target up ahead at $51.34.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  12:47:36 PM
Microsoft to a new low of the day- hints of trouble in paradise.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  12:46:59 PM
Sure, Jeff. McTeer gave Steve Forbes that interview when gold was around 370 (weeks before the central-bank-a-thon that dropped 22 points in one hour). Rates are fine for us young whippersnappers, but seniors are getting cleaned out and that cheap money from the Fed is serving principally to inflate Chinese internets and the CRB. It's fine for traders, but once that CRB inflation finds its way into the price of consumer staples and other items with inelastic demand, the Fed will seem far less heroic than it does to many now. Oops- rambling again :)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:39:32 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $97.72 +0.09% ... after trading WEEKLY R1 of $97.75, couldn't quite hold a 5-minute bar close above $97.72. While looking bullish intra-day, just not enough conviction from bulls, or jitters from bears to hold the close above $97.75. Making some notes, but if DIA can close a $97.75 or better on 5-minute chart, would be some sign of strength.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  12:38:49 PM
Will the OEX fulfill the upside target predicted by the inverse H&S on the 60-minute chart? Maybe, but it will do it without me this time. That VXO scares me too much, although of course I at least acknowledge that there's the possibility that the VXO really is establishing a newer and lower range. I pay attention to Jim's assessment that the possibility is unlikely, but try to keep an open mind about all possibilities. I learned that lesson hard after 2000 and was glad of it during March of this year. To state the obvious, though, the OEX first has to achieve a higher high before it can try for that upside target.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:36:14 PM
Buy/Sell Program Premium Alerts .... since the opening tick when cash caught up to futures on the downside, haven't seen any premium levels hit. First one of the day could dictate direction.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  12:33:28 PM
Microsoft is printing a low of the day here at 26.94, down 0.96%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:32:51 PM
QQQ $35.20 -0.45% .... after seeing DIA trade WEEKLY R1, monitoring QQQ more closely here, just below its WEEKLY R1. Some important intra-day resistance being encountered here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:28:53 PM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $97.77 +0.14% ..... session high and first test of WEEKLY R1. Might be alert to building strength for major indices.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:27:59 PM
Rogue Wave Software (RWAV) $6.12 +21.91% ... day trade long here, stop $5.85, target $6.70.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:20:55 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) Setting upside alert at $30. Check out rest of 12:12:33 comments regarding short interest.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  12:19:54 PM
The OEX rises to test the previous day's high. This could be an important test, initiating more short-covering if the OEX succeeds in moving above that high, but strengthening bearish resolve if it doesn't.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  12:12:33 PM
A theme in today's trade? .... Trimble Navigation (TRMB) Link $27.89 +30.4% .... company makes advanced position products and solutions to industrial, commercial, governmental entities and professional customers in a number of markets, including surveying, construction, agriculture, urban and resource management.

Upgraded today by 3 brokers after TRMB reported Q3 EPS of $0.36 per share GAAP of $0.29, versus conensus of $0.28 per share. Revenues rose 21.7% year-over-year to $139.6 millon versus the $131.1 million.

WR Hambrecht upgraded to "buy" from "hold" based on valuation saying TRMB trades at 2004 adjusted EPS and fully-taxed EPS multiples of 13-times and 16.7-times respectively, a material discount to SPX's 18-times multiple. Hambrecht placed $29 price target on stock.

BEARS hope $29 is the bullish target as quick check of NASDAQ short interest finds 2.018 million shares short, highest in 12-months and days to cover high at 6.83!

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:59:02 AM
Hitachi Ltd. (HIT) $63.93 +5.84% Link .... Hi Jeff what's your take on Hitachi?

Looks strong/bullish. I think that "sell signal" at $56 actually helps the PnF chart, as it allows for today's building column of X to generate a much more attractive bullish vertical count to $81.

When looking at bar chart, stock has been a gapfest (gaps a lot), and would suggest partial bullish here, just in case stock wants to backfill today's gap higher into $60.00. Stock bounced strong from its rising 50-day SMA on Friday though didn't it? Link

Good stock to tie in with Japan's Nikkei-225 Link

On Friday I was trying to think of a good "Japanese" stock to look for a bounce on a Nikkei-225 bounce from 10,200, but couldn't come up with one. Hitachi would have been a honey.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:51:39 AM
Vertical Counts ... Jeff: Would you please review calculating price objective on the P&f charts. Or, refer to an article where that information may be.

Yes... I wrote two articles on the BULLISH Link and BEARISH Link vertical count methods in the Bailey's Basics section of the web site. These should help.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:49:22 AM
In my 10:45 post, I showed a 60-minute OEX chart, with both an ascending line and a descending line marking the outlines of a triangle. I just computed the midpoint between those two lines. It's at 517.27. The OEX has been oscillating around that level for the last two hours.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:43:55 AM
NYSE adv:dec ratios have strengthened since I first reported this morning, with that ratio 18:13 as of a few moments ago. The advancing and declining issues were nearly neck and neck on the Nasdaq. Up and down volume were nearly equal on the Nasdaq, too, but up volume was bigger than down volume on the NYSE by a 3:2 ratio. Total volume was 509 million on the NYSE and 793 million on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:41:34 AM
Garmin (GRMN) $49.00 +9.02% Link .... X gets another square on the PnF chart.

5-MRT BLUE #2 just ahead at $49.85.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:38:52 AM
One problem with trading the Donchian channel breakouts is deciding how to exit. So far, I have backtested two methods. One was to exit a long trade on a close below a shorter-term Donchian channel, with a maximum loss of four points from entry, but the results were not as good with that backtest. The OEX has not yet closed below that shorter-term Donchian channel since a long trade was signaled at a 30-minute close at 515.90 on yesterday's 2:30 candle. The other exit was to exit if a 30-minute candle closed two points below the previous 30-minute's candle, but with a maximum four-point loss from the entry level. That type of exit performed better in my backtest, mostly because the first type of exit resulted in some trades being stopped prematurely, before they reached full profit. The long trade would not yet have been stopped on this type of exit, either. The trouble with this exit, however, is that sometimes the OEX just creeps down, not moving quickly enough for a two-point close below the previous 30-minute candle close, but nevertheless losing significant ground before the exit. I'll continue to watch and report on this hypothetical trade as it progresses, and we'll decide whether it would have been best to heed the breakout signal and stay in the trade overnight, or rather it was better to have heeded the warning given by the VXO yesterday and exited, as we did on our own long trade.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:38:37 AM
The most recent put to call ratio is .52, still way too low. The VXO is holding at 17.83, with the TRINQ down to .95 despite no real movement in price. Gold and the metals indices have given back part of their gains but are still well up on the day, while treasuries hold their losses. The markets all appear to have stalled.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:38:26 AM
Altria (MO) $47.11 +2.03% Link .... notable new 52-week high for Dow component.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:34:59 AM
GE has printed a new High of the Day..

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  11:32:27 AM
11:00 Update at this Link

Stocks impacted by FDA warning on JNJ's stent

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:22:50 AM
I've turned to the one-minute charts on the OEX so that I can watch candles move.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  11:12:09 AM
Most recent put to call ratio .50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:07:31 AM
I've been using this time while we watch the OEX gyrate to do research. Here's another stock on a 60-minute chart, showing how it's traded in relationship to its 100/130-pma's. Amazing. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  11:02:23 AM
Just read on the Futures side of the Monitor that Jane was predicting yesterday that today might be a consolidation day. Maybe I subliminally remembered that information, then, because after studying charts this morning before the open, that possibility worried me, too, making me hesitant about entering any OEX positions. I mentioned that worry in my 9:28 post. We OEX traders just can't endure that chop without losing a hefty portion of our trading accounts, and a large amount of my research goes into trying to find the perfect technical setup that's going to show me when we're going to have chop and when we're not. So far, the best "technical setup" I've found is advice Jim gave long ago--that big-range days tend to be followed by tight-range days.

If the OEX should fall below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, the decline should get steeper fast, but then I keep studying that 10/2-10/3 gap. That gap has provided support and resistance over the last week, and I keep wondering if a trade below the 100/130-pma's would this time result in a return to the trading range between 511.20-514, with the OEX chopping between those levels for a while, until it decides where it's going to go.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:48:45 AM
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $49 -3% ... weighs on both INDU and DRG.X 310.70 -1.3% after FDA issued a note this morning warning JNJ Cypher stents cause blood clotting, ordered a 2,000 patient study.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:46:15 AM
The second put to call reading just came out at .48, with the VXO still down 17.72. It feels like the bulls are standing out over the edge of cliff, waiting for the road runner to point out that they're standing on a cloud of dust. We'll see. Still no break below the morning lows, despite downphases in progress on the intraday oscillators.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:45:42 AM
Here's a chart I posted yesterday, updated now to show what's happening with the OEX on a 60-minute basis: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:43:15 AM
MSFT LOD, -.81%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:41:22 AM
Dow Diamonds (DIA) $97.59 -0.04% ... of the indices/sectors in our WEEKLY pivot matrix that has not yet traded a WEEKLY R1 ($97.75), DIA is closest. Morning high was $97.74, so might think a trade at or above may be alert to major indices seeing any notable strength.

OEX 517 -0.31% at session lows here, but yet to test correlative supports at 513 from DAILY S1 and WEEKLY Pivot. I get the feel that this is a test that the MARKET may want to see at this point.

Perhaps some willing to sit today's session out, and wait for tomorrow's release of preliminary Q3 GDP

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:40:23 AM
The OEX now falls below its 21-dma and tests its 10-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:37:45 AM
Those 60-minute 100/130-pma's turn out to be helpful in all kinds of markets. Take a look at DD on a 60-minute chart, with the 100-pma in blue and the 130-pma in green: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:34:10 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 326.71 -0.38% .... Bank of America (BAC) $73.46 +0.83% Link showing first sign of any stability after announcing its offer for FleetBoston (FBF) $39.05 +0.64% Link .

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:34:05 AM
Yesterday's daily OEX candle was a large enough candle that we can look at retracement levels based on that candle. The 50% retracement of yesterday's range lies at 515.21. The 515-515.60 zone holds importance from other methods of analysis, too, confirming that's an important level to watch. The 60-minute 100/130-pma's lie in that zone, and the rising trendline off the 10/24 low does, too. The confirmed neckline from the inverse H&S lies within that zone, too. If the OEX should retreat that far, that will give us a good test of that support. A bounce from that support would be short-term bullish, although the low VXO still scares me, while a fall through that level would be short-term bearish.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:30:43 AM
Lucent (LU) $3.04 +5.19% .... second-most active in morning trade behind Sirius Satellite (SIRI) $2.29 +0.48%, and most likely LU's gains contributor to Networking Index (NWX.X) 244.50 +0.58% fractional gains among tech sectors.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:30:39 AM
MSFT LOD.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:27:39 AM
GO HUI GO! Now up 5.85 to 222.15. So much for the gold bears. Score another victory for the goldbugs, with HUI at a new alltime high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:27:20 AM
Russell-2000 Index (RUT.X) 526.84 +0.18% ... holding fractional gains. Other major indices now back in the red with fractional losses.

INDU 9,742.98 -0.05%, SPX 1,044.19 -0.24%, OEX 517.18 -0.27%, NDX 1,413.11 -0.48%, QQQ $35.15 -0.59%.

QQQ high of $35.35 looks to have been early technical fill of this morning's gap lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:24:05 AM
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $43.62 +1.34% Link ... notable 52-week high from earlier this morning in NASDAQ.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:20:15 AM
That .41 put to call reading is an extreme indication of no-holds-barred call speculation. Combined with the VXO holding below 18, it indicates to me that there is rampant, oblivious bullishness currently dominating the marke, and these are levels I'm inclined to fade. Combined with the intraday oscillators overbought, I'm looking for downside. If it powers upward, my own short covering will join the tide of bids.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:17:43 AM
I keep having to change servers on Q-charts today, so that I'm never sure if the values or the chart characteristics I'm seeing are the current ones. Under those kinds of conditions, I'm going to be hesitant to make any moves. I don't like trading in the dark.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:17:32 AM
Phelps Dodge (PD) $58.00 +3.68% Link .... notable 52-week high from world's largest copper producer.

Decembe Copper futures (hg03z) $0.917 +1.04%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:16:14 AM
The earliest volume patterns were mixed today, with advancers having a lead on the NYSE and decliners having a lead on the Nasdaq. Up and down volume were close on both indices, but volume was a light 131 million on the NYSE and 319 million on the Nasdaq. New highs remained strong, however.

The light volume confirms my feeling that I'm not tempted to jump in right now. Anything can happen in volume like that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:15:55 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.76 -0.09% .... yesterday and again today, dx00y testing a still trending lower 21-day SMA of 92.02. With today's news out of Europe and GDP figures given, I would think that economy there is really hoping for dollar strength and euro weakness.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:12:21 AM
Major Indices now mixed to fractions higher.

Sector action was mixed to lower, would view mixed to higher here.

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 220.46 +1.92%, Defense Index (DFX.X) 179.28 +1.13% show early strength, while Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 463.22 -1.33% shows weakness on GILD $51.73 -13%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:11:52 AM
I'm not tempted to enter the market with an OEX trade right now. Yesterday's inverse H&S promises much more upside, but there's also a descending trendline from the 10/15 high that cuts across at about 520, not far above the current price. If the tenor of the markets have changed, there's no assurance the upside promised by the inverse H&S will be met. There's also an ascending trendline off the 10/24 low, with that ascending trendline now crossing just below the current levels of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's. That places the OEX in the middle of a triangle now, between possible support and possible resistance. If we were still in the OEX long trade from yesterday, I'd probably still be holding on with a stop at breakeven, but I'd be watching this current push upward, too, and if the OEX didn't reach a new high, I'd probably be bailing. The Donchian channel breakout methodology I've been testing would still have us in the trade, however, to benchmark that hypothetical trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:07:41 AM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $48.09 +7.02% ...

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:05:34 AM
The put to call ratio was .41 for the first half hour. If the bulls can hold this up, I'll just be shocked.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  10:04:42 AM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $47.69 +6% ... a bit surprised by such strength early, but just checked short interest at NASDAQ. Oct. 15 short interest showed highest level since May 15 (1,841,436) with Oct. 15 at 1,636,382. Days to cover currently at 3.77 as average daily volume has been 433,500.

Stock has already turned 634,000 shares in early morning trade.

As such... will also profile a day trade long on break to new session high of $47.96, stop just under BLUE #1 of $47.45, target BLUE #3 $51.33.

Disclosure .... I currently hold bullish positiion in GRMN.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  10:02:25 AM
Gold continues to climb, now up 3.20 at 386.60, and HUI is up 3.19 at 219.49. Equities are not slipping, and only bonds are missing the party so far. The VXO is flat, down .01 at 17.83. It's difficult to imagine prices holding up with volatility so low, but that is what's happening so far.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  10:01:06 AM
The pattern I was seeing on this chart changed somewhat as I was posting it, with the OEX declining as I produced the chart and then bouncing back up after I had done so, but here's what I was seeing a few minutes ago: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:58:26 AM
TASER Intl. (TASR) $61.33 +6.14% Link ... getting upside alert here at point and figure chart's bullish vertical count of $61.00.

What a stunning move from $32 earlier this month.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:53:03 AM
After changing servers, I have values for today again on Q-charts. For those who don't have access to five-minute charts, the OEX first five minutes included a high of 518.64 and a low of 517.34. The midpoint of that range, helpful to watch in early trading, lies at 517.99. As I type, the OEX is slipping below that level, showing some weakness in earliest trading, but I'm not yet convinced that we'll see a big down day. We may, but we may instead spend the day with the OEX retesting the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, too, chopping around just above them. Despite that scary value yesterday in the VXO, the OEX could also continue up another day or two at least, especially if enough people are convinced, rightly or wrongly, that there's a new range in that VXO, with it headed to lower lows.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:48:00 AM
And MSFT a LOD, down .30%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:46:09 AM
GE is printing a HOD at 28.61, up .35%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:43:44 AM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $47.21 +4.98% ... strong move out of gate. Trade at $47 gives initial bullish count to $58.

Took partial position in the out the money Jan. $50's (GQRAJ) at $1.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   10/29/20,  9:40:51 AM
Bonds continue to sink, gold continues to rise, with silver at a day high and the HUI up 2.1 at 218.40, XAU +.38 at 98.29.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:39:32 AM
QQQ $35.17 -0.5% ... short-term bull that held QQQ overnight might look to move to sidelines here, look for INDU firming from 9,680-9,688 per last night's Index Wrap. Can always get back long on move above yesterday's QQQ highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:37:38 AM
Readers are reporting difficulties with Q-charts, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:33:44 AM
I've just lost today's values on Q-charts, so can't give any intelligent commentary until they return!

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:32:33 AM
Benchmarking how the trade would be playing out if we had taken yesterday's long trade based on a Donchian channel breakout, we would now have a stop set if the OEX closed this 30-minute candle below 516.31.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:31:30 AM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $46.24 +2.82% ... upside alert at $46.00 triggered. (see 09:25:55)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  9:28:56 AM
We did not wake with higher futures, as I expected we would, so I'm glad for now that we closed the long OEX Swing Trade, but am unsure what to expect. The bulls who expected to head straight up are going to be battling the bears who have that low VXO to invigorate them. The OEX closed yesterday overbought on a five-minute basis and desperately needing to pull back, but perhaps only to 516.50 or so. That won't be quite deep enough to give us a test of the 60-minute 100-pma again if the retreat stops there. We'll just have to see how early trading goes, but I'd like to use the 60-minute 100/130-pma's as a basis for going long or entering a bearish trade. I'm rather afraid that we'll just have a choppy day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:25:55 AM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $44.97 Link ... Maker of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) higher at $45.85 after reporting Q3 EPS of $0.39 (excluding effects of foreign currency), which was 3-cents better than consensus. GRMN said revenues rose 25.8% year-over-year to $135.6 million, also above consensus of $135.5 million. For Q4 GRMN said it sees EPS of $0.43-$0.45, which is at the high end of $0.43 consensus on revenues of $155-$160 million versus estimates of $148.2 million.

I've been monitoring GRMN from time to time in recent weeks after subscriber e-mail a couple of weeks ago. Wanted to get the stock lower in mid-to-lower $30's for bull entry, but stock has been strong. Nice "low pole warning" in September developed, and stock threatens to trigger a triple-top buy signal with trade at $46. Alert set at $46 for bullish entry. Currently no bullish vertical count to work with, but trade at $46 would give inital bullish count to $55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/29/20,  9:16:19 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   10/29/20,  7:06:03 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened sharply higher in Wednesday's trading and had soon gained more than 200 points. The afternoon session proved volatile, however, with the Nikkei dipping almost to its opening level before climbing again. The Nikkei closed up 178.21 points or 1.69%, at 10,739.22, but was declining again into the close. Japanese factory production numbers for September showed a greater-than-expected gain. Automakers gained despite a dollar that reached a new three-year low against the yen ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow's testimony before Congress tomorrow. Banks declined. Hitachi and Fujitsu reported results tagged as upbeat. Tech company Matsushita, a Sony competitor, reported strong earnings. Throughout Asia, computer-related shares gained after TSM's strong showing on Tuesday and Advantest's on Wednesday, and an industry report that pegged Japan's chip growth at 22.5% this year. Advantest raised its sales forecast.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.34% and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.55%. Singapore's Straits Times lost 0.80% but Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.32%. China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.57%.

European markets are mixed, too, with most declining since their open. The EU revised 2003 eurozone GDP expectations downward, saying the GDP will grow 0.4%. Estimates for 2004 were revised downward, too. In addition, the dollar weakened against the British pound. German bank HVB Group reported income that beat expectations due to improved interest and commission income and was gaining. Volkswagen, Unilever, and France Telecom are currently lower after their earnings reports.

Currently, the FTSE 100 has lost 9.20 points or 0.22%, to trade at 4263.70. The CAC 40 has gained 7.51 points or 0.22%, to trade at 3359.66, climbing slightly off its low. Also climbing slightly, the DAX has gained 7.76 points or 0.22%, to trade at 3594.69.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   10/28/20,  12:15:03 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   10/28/20,  12:14:55 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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