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  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  5:44:55 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  4:27:47 PM
Prudential (PRU) $38.05 -2.51% Link ... trading $37.78 after reporting Q3 EPS of $0.70, which was $0.14 better than consensus of $0.56. PRU said revenues fell 3.7% year-over-year to $4.37 billion versus $4.39 billion. For 2003 PRU sees EPS between $2.40-$2.50 versus consensus of $2.42.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  4:23:32 PM
ICOS Corp. (ICOS) $44.40 -3.16% Link ... steady at $44.45 after reporting Q3 loss of $0.63, which beat estimates for loss of $0.79.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  4:13:48 PM
Newmont Mining (NEM) $43.32 +1% ... lower at $42.50 after announcing plans for 20 million share offering.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  4:11:15 PM
Priceline.com (PCLN) $29.25 +1.95% Link ... sharply lower at $25.00 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.24, which was 3-cent better than consensus. However, PCLN said revenues were $243.4 million, which was below the $251.64 million consensus.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:42:40 PM
Just for reference, an OEX 30-minute close this period below 520.43 would mark a Donchian channel breakout to the downside. The 21(3)3 stochastics are pinned in the oversold levels, one condition that was sometimes associated with profitable plays in my backtests. ADX is 23.67, however, a level sometimes, but not always, associated with "iffy" plays. As a reminder, never assume a close below a Donchian channel before it occurs as those channels mark strong resistance and support levels that have held for 20 periods. Also, because the failure rate of these Donchian channel breakouts as I've been testing them still remain too high--near 50%--we're not trading them officially, but are using them to confirm trades we otherwise would have taken. In this case, I wouldn't be ready to enter a bearish trade ahead of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, and they're down near 518.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:33:54 PM
I'm going to start trusting those "confused" feelings I have some mornings when approaching the markets. This morning, I extrapolated my own confusion, and thought other market participants might be feeling some of that same confusion. Kind of cheeky of me, wasn't it? Still, more and more often lately, I've noticed that those confused feelings occur on days when the markets are choppy. This morning, I suggested that might happen as bulls and bears battle it out. (See my 9:28 post.) When I ignore those impressions and jump into the market anyway, sure I see some big move in the making, I'm usually sorry. It's usually best to trust those first impressions I formed when studying the markets at leisure, before they open.

I'm still hoping that we get our test of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, and that the test doesn't occur right at the close today (as I worried might happen this morning) or with a huge and untradable gap down tomorrow morning.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:16:34 PM
OEX 522.40-522.80 did hold as resistance after all.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:11:13 PM
This last hour might be particularly important for the OEX. The last hour can change today's bearish candle's shape, for example. Right now, the daily 5(3)3 stochastics produce a bearish kiss, with the 14.59 ADX level indicating that we should be able to trust oscillator evidence. RSI hooked down, too. The OEX remains in the upper half of its ascending regression channel, with a host of moving averages clumping between the current OEX level and the midline of that channel, moving up to lend their support. Should the OEX decline below that midline, however, it will be on its way to producing a lower high after having just produced a higher low. MACD has flattened while all this is resolved. 21(3)3 stochs still look strong, however.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  3:00:26 PM
The resistance lines suggested by the five-minute Keltner bands have now separated, with the various levels not clumping together as they had earlier. While the OEX did hit the midline of the broadest of the channels and then retreat, I'm not so sure it will be held back by 522.40-522.80. What a day.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:55:23 PM
Andrx Group $20.93 +2.25% Link .... good pop from $20.40 after announcing FDA approved its generic version of Shering Plough's (SGP) $14.86 -0.93% Link Claritin RediTabs.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:43:43 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $53.81 +1.03% Link .... perking up a bit in last 5-minutes.

Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $28.72 -1.74% Link rather quiet. Not break so far at $30.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:32:53 PM
The OEX heads up, and might find resistance this time at 522.40-522.80, if not before. The nested five-minute Keltner bands show that level to be important, and the 60-minute 21-pma lies near that zone.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:28:34 PM
S&P futures (sp03z) while I'm 10-minute delayed. Just now noting recent testing of our 19.1% fitted retracmenet of 1,051.20 here.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:20:23 PM
It seems as if Keene and I are struggling with the same demons today. See his 14:11 post on the Futures side.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  2:18:33 PM
Bulls still brave enough to chase a breakout might be tempted by the new highs in Corning Inc (GLW). The stock's MACD is about to produce another buy signal and the stock is above weekly resistance in the $11 range.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:18:14 PM
What I hoped to see was the OEX descend all the way to the 60-minute 100/130-pma's. Then we could use a drop below them as a signal for a bearish play. If the OEX instead bounces, I would use a move back above the 30-minute 100-pma as a trigger for a long play, but I'd sure be nervous about it. None of that may happen, but that's what's on my wish list.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  2:11:25 PM
Steady as she goes with the p/c ratio .59, VXO 17.67, Gold and bonds firm, silver holding its substantial gains. All we need is a selloff in equities and the day will be complete.

  Jane Fox   11/4/200,  2:08:44 PM
Dateline WSJ - Richard M. Scrushy, HealthSouth Corp.'s former chairman and chief executive, was indicted by a federal grand jury on 85 counts for his role in a massive accounting fraud at the health-care company he founded.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  2:05:47 PM
Just an observation but MSFT is near its low of the day and about to break support at $26.00 and its simple 200-dma.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  2:04:26 PM
ImClone (IMCL) $35.68 +3.45% ... stopped on bearish profile from $35.46.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  2:03:58 PM
Sooner or later I expect to see some weakness in stocks like MMM and UPS who have been rising nearly non-stop for the last four-to-five weeks.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  2:02:31 PM
That didn't take long. The OEX handily broke through 520.80. Now let's see if it holds. Of course, right now, I'm really wishing I had called the bearish play I wanted to call (or entered it myself), but I've been waiting for a test of those important averages, willing to give up a few points while we waited for that test. I'm afraid of at least a tepid bounce attempt if not a stronger one at those averages and we just didn't have enough downside to give us a cushion.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  2:01:27 PM
Shares of Sun Microsystems (SUNW) are pulling back a bit after running from $3.50 to nearly $4.50 in just three days (Thur-Mon). Volume was very strong on the surge higher and a top exec had some positive comments yesterday on signs of a recovery in technology spending.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:53:31 PM
Will a test of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's occur this afternoon, with those averages at 519.30 and 518.77? The 60-minute versions lie at 518.12 and 517.55. Or will the OEX 520.80 support prove strong enough to steady the OEX here and form a double bottom on the five-minute chart?

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:41:47 PM
Every time I'm convinced I know where the markets are going today, I take a look at the mixed-up volume patterns and that keeps me from acting on that instinct. The volume patterns have been inconclusive most of the day, and remain so. As of a few minutes ago, advancers led decliners on the NYSE, but down volume was much bigger than up volume. Decliners led on the Nasdaq. Down volume was bigger there, too, but not by a large proportion. New highs now number over 700. Total volume is 795 million on the NYSE and 1.3 billion on the Nasdaq.

It's about time for the stop-running push that often occurs this time of day, however. Perhaps that will swing the markets one direction or the other, with volume patterns swinging that direction, too.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  1:23:01 PM
ImClone Systems (IMCL) $35.49 +2.98% .... update .... seeing some analyst comments that today's news that a December FDA Panel review will not occur is being viewed as potential positive. Thought is that no December panel review shows FDA ready to approve Avastin cancer drug without needing additional data.

As such... lower bearish stop to $35.65, target remains $33.75.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  1:07:30 PM
Latest put to call reading is .59.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  1:06:57 PM
Gold, silver and bonds are all firm, equities weak. THE TRINQ is at a neutral 1.06, TICKQ -257. THE VXO is in the mid 17's, complacent all the way. The oscillators on the futures are in gear to the downside, but confluence support beginning at the lows of the day has been holding up. If it doesn't break, the next bounce could be powerful, but if it does, it should be good for some downside fireworks.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  1:01:21 PM
OEX 520.80 has been important historical S/R. Once (if) the OEX sustains levels below that number, a test of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's seems more likely.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:59:34 PM
This morning, at 9:23, I posted a weekly OEX chart I'd first annotated in mid-October. I'd questioned whether we could safely say that the OEX had cleared 523.50, and had pointed out that weekly MACD had pierced its steepest ascending trendline, although not its longer-term ascending trendline. My intention had been to point out that we can't yet safely say that the OEX has cleared 523.50 on a weekly basis. Today's action backs up that impression so far.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:54:50 PM
Sara McLachlan singing on CNBC .... good music for a quiet session like today.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:49:00 PM
ImClone (IMCL) $35.32 +2.55% .... revised day trade bearish target to $33.75 (see:12:44:58). (I mistakenly grabbed wrong 5-minute bar for 5-MRT)

  James Brown   11/4/200,  12:48:42 PM
Those sectors suffering the biggest losses today are:
DRG drug index, XNG natural gas index, and IUX insurance index.

While the majority of sector indices are now in the red the losses are pretty mild. Even the biggest loser above, DRG, is only down 1 percent.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:44:58 PM
Day trade short .... Imclone (IMCL) Link here at $35.46, stop $36.02, target $33.60

  James Brown   11/4/200,  12:44:12 PM
Two companies announcing earnings after the bell this afternoon are Priceline.com (PCLN) and Prudential Financial (PRU). Estimates for PCLN are 21 cents and estimates for PRU are 56 cents.

Shares of PCLN are currently cowering under the $30 level. Shares of PRU, which have been rising in a very strong channel for months, are currently down 3.17% and heading toward support near its simple 50-dma.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  12:43:34 PM
ImClone (IMCL) $35.65 +3.36% .... stock fell sharply to $32.50, now back higher in last 15-minutes on Bloomberg report that company will not get December review by FDA Panel.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:38:50 PM
When I saw the difficulty that the OEX was having with the 30-minute 21-pma this morning, I certainly wanted to suggest a bearish OEX position, but there's just little leeway before the 100/130-pma's are tested, whether you watch them on the 30-minute or 60-minute OEX chart. It could be that the OEX will barrel right down through those averages and we'll wish we'd been in the play, but OEX traders have spreads to contend with as well as commissions and we need more downside before we hit possible rock-solid support. As Keene has mentioned on the Futures board this morning, there's a possibility for another bounce. I don't know if we're going to get it or not, but the 100/130-pma's would be a logical place for it to occur.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  12:37:15 PM
HUI continues to rip higher, I mean, retrace yesterday's loss, now up 5.17 at 214.02, with silver at a session high at 5.001, Dec gold 380.20.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  12:35:02 PM
Coming out with October same-store sales numbers today are drug-retailers CVS Corp (CVS) and Rite Aid (RAD). s-s sales for CVS were +6.3%, while RAD is reporting +6.9%.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:24:45 PM
The OEX slips below the lowest ascending trendline off the 10/24 low, and as soon as I typed the word "lowest," I thought about the corrective fan principle, described in Martin Pring's TA texts as well as those of others. This principle states that when a rally begins, the trendline is usually too steep to be sustained. The ascending trendline is violated. Then, a new and lower trendline can be drawn. That one is often violated, too, and a third line can be drawn. If and when that third line is violated, the rally's end has been confirmed. I used a Pitchfan to draw the various trendlines. To me, it looks as if this is the third trendline that can be drawn off that rally and as if it's being violated. Link

  James Brown   11/4/200,  12:18:51 PM
Yesterday's rally sent the S&P small cap 600 index and the S&P mid cap 400 index to all-time highs. The Russell 2000 small cap index hit multi-year highs.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:12:10 PM
However you might draw or interpret the rising formation on the OEX five-minute chart, it appears that the OEX has violated the downside support. However, the OEX is trading sideways after violating that support, an action that we've seen happen over and over during the last weeks. That action usually predicts a move up instead of the expected move down, but as I type, the OEX does appears to be slipping lower again.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  12:10:33 PM
NPR reporting very large explosions and smoke rising into the skies of Baghdad.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  12:10:03 PM
QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM) is looking tired near the top of its rising channel that began in May. Shares are currently down 1.76% after A.G.Edwards downgraded the stock to a "hold" from a "buy" on valuation concerns. QCOM is set to announce earnings after the bell tomorrow. Estimates are for 29 cents a share.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  12:07:33 PM
GE is printing a new low of the day.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  12:01:57 PM
Throughout the morning, the OEX has been finding resistance at its 30-minute 21-pma, currently at 523.43, but earlier, it bounced from its 60-minute 21-pma, currently at 521.60. It's sandwiched between the two. Actually, on the advice of a knowledgeable subscriber, I also watch the 18-pma's on these charts, and the OEX more closely tracked these averages than it did the 21-pma's, at least for today.

I'm watching for a violation of the 60-minute 21-pma as a sign that the downside gains some traction. I would be suggesting a bearish play on a violation of that MA, if that should occur, except that the important 100/130-pma's lie just below at 518.03 and 517.45, and except that volume patterns shift toward a bullish tenor rather than toward a bearish one. I would be suggesting a long on a sustained move above the 30-minute 21-pma, except for that congestion just overhead. With that troubling low VIX/VXO combo, longs are going to be selective for now.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  12:01:07 PM
Avaya Inc (AV) appears to be forming a fresh bullish breakout from a three-week long trend of lower highs. After the short-term double-bottom near $12.60 this could be an entry point for bulls. The company announced a multi-year strategic alliance with Extreme Networks (EXTR) this morning. Plus, JMP Securities has initiated coverage on AV with an "out perform". AV is currently up about 3%. Meanwhile EXTR is up more than 10%.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:56:02 AM
HUI is higher at 213.11, XAU +1.41 at 97.40, despite gold down to 379.20 on the most recent round of selling.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  11:53:56 AM
CIENA (CIEN) $6.75 +1.21% Link .... per this weekend's Ask the Analyst column Link and trade above $6.75, profiling PARTIAL bullish for the JAN 2004 or better yet April 2004 expiration. April target $12.50.

Can look to round up in position on strength at $8.00, which would be spread-triple-top buy signal.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:50:30 AM
The put to call ratio is down to .59, VXO 17.23.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  11:43:04 AM
Bullish on fast food...SG Cowen has upgraded McDonalds (MCD) and Wendy's (WEN) from "out perform" to "strong buy". Both stocks are trading at one-year highs today.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:40:31 AM
The OEX is inching above its 30-minute 21-pma now, but it looks as if it's having difficulty maintaining that level. Thirty-minute RSI turned up this morning at about the time the OEX began climbing off its low, serving as a good predictor of this upside. Thirty-minute MACD flattens above signal and the MACD histogram now measures a less-negative -0.215. Momentum remains flat, however, as does CCI. The OEX bounced this morning from the 60-minute 21-pma. Normally, I would consider this a time to buy the dip, and apparently some did just that, but volume patterns sure aren't screaming "go long" to me and this bump up has just moved the OEX back into yesterday afternoon's congestion zone. I'm not seeing either a great bullish or a great bearish trade just yet, but maybe that's just me. When I started the day, however, I thought perhaps that others might be feel the same confusion I confessed to feeling and thought that might lead to difficult trading patterns, and nothing yet has changed that opinion.

  James Brown   11/4/200,  11:39:13 AM
RV maker Thor Industries Inc (THO) announced record sales for the quarter ending October 31 this morning. Sales jumped 20% from last year. The stock is currently trading at all-time highs after breaking out of a month-long consolidation yesterday.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  11:30:11 AM
Netease.com (NTES) $47.00 +4.01% .... Day trade bull booking profits here.

Could look to roll day trade profits to November $50 calls.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:26:48 AM
How do small, mid, and large caps perform today in relationship to each other? The S&P SmallCap 600 Index gains today. Yesterday, this index climbed from the midline of its ascending regression channel, and while today's gains are smaller, it's still moving toward the top of its regression channel, adding 0.31% today. The S&P Midcap 400 Index had a head start, climbing above the midline of its regression channel last week. At 556.18 as I type, this index will hit the top of its channel near 560-561, and has added 0.19% today. In contrast the S&P 500 Large Cap, the SPX, has declined 0.26%.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  11:12:40 AM
As of a few moments ago, volume patterns remain as mixed and choppy as the market performance. Advancing and declining issues were closely matched on the NYSE, while advancers had a small lead over decliners on the Nasdaq. Up volume had a light lead on the Nasdaq, too, but that lead was only 20 million shares. Down volume led on the NYSE, however. New highs remained strong, but nothing like yesterday's levels. Total volume was 368 million on the NYSE and 705 million on the Nasdaq. Nothing in those volume figures convinced me to take a position either direction.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  11:06:47 AM
The put to call ratio is up to .62, VXO down to 17.23.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:59:30 AM
Here's what I'm watching on the OEX 60-minute chart: Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:59:13 AM
Gold is back to its session highs, accompanied by silver, up .061 at 4.988. Th HUI is up 3.17 t 212.03, XAU +.93 at 96.92.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:57:59 AM
Netease.com (NTES) $45.90 +1.72% .... on the move here at BLUE #3.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:57:06 AM
Sohu.com (SOHU) $35.90 +1.98% ... upside alert here from "inside day" ... can day trade long here too, but have some NTES, so will pass.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:52:50 AM
Netease.com (NTES) $45.57 +1.04% .... cancel day trade long from $45.01.

Replace with day trade long market, stop $44.95, target $47.00.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:50:53 AM
RF Monolithics (RFMI) $7.15 +17.4% ... higher after announcing XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) chose the company to supply intermediate frequency (IF) filters for integration with a new generation of chipsets.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:48:13 AM
Correction- there are an additional 4.5B in 5 day rps expiring today, for a net drain of 11B. Unless this analysis is way off, we should be seeing some solid selling at some point today, an most likely sooner than later. If the fed is pullin 11B out of the markets, the dollar should rise, and bonds, stocks and commodities should be coming down. We'll see.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:45:01 AM
Nested five-minute Keltner bands show a couple of layers of support now gathering near 522.20, just above the low of the day. A fall through there shows next Keltner-band support down near 519.80. Of course, we have to watch for other types of support, too, but this echoes the downside that seemed possible earlier this morning. I do note that for all last week, the OEX violated the midpoint of the largest of the nested Keltner bands I watch only a couple of times, but mostly traded in the upper half of that band, climbing within that upper half. It's spent most of the morning so far in the bottom half, testing that midpoint from below. It's doing so now, with that midpoint currently at 522.93. I interpret this to mean that the OEX is showing some tentative weakness, but that it's not yet certain whether the OEX will continue to climb, trading higher from within the upper half of this channel, or whether the OEX will continue to fall, trading lower from within the lower half of the channel. The decision hasn't yet been made, I don't think, although the downside thesis gains strength as the morning progresses. Let's just hope it doesn't take days for that decision to be made as the OEX hugs various support/resistance levels that gather near the current OEX price.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:34:41 AM
The put to call ratio rose to .61, with the Index pcr up to 1.86, equity pcr flat at .42.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:33:34 AM
Yesterday morning in my first post, I noted the SIA's upbeat outlook for the semiconductor industry. This morning, I noticed that Standard & Poors assigned DuPont Photomasks (DPMI) a B+ corporate credit rating, while assigning its $125 million 1.25% convertible subordinated notes due in 2008 a B- rating with a negative outlook. The company manufactures lithographic masks used in manufacturing semiconductors, with demand for the masks rising and falling with demand for chips. Standard & Poors mentioned weak industry conditions that are likely to continue. Somebody has it wrong with respect to demand for chips: Is it the SIA or Standard & Poors?

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:33:12 AM
Netease.com (NTES) $45.38 +0.57% .... day trade long $45.01, stop $44.73, target $46.75 by today's close.

Stock has come back to a little area of congestion dating back to mid-August. Should find some "old bears" hanging out and looking to close positions after seeing $70 a couple of weeks ago.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:20:44 AM
Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 535.72 +0.23% .... 52-week high here.

Received question regarding past bullish profile on Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $3.89 +3.7% late yesterday from high $2s. I continue to hold, and would continue to hold. Looks like somebody still building a position, and may be building a chart where support recently found at rising 50-day SMA.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:18:31 AM
The opening put to call ratio was .46, way too low even with the VXO up fractionally. Indeed, it indicates that option traders are paying even more for their calls.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:17:55 AM
The possible "b" distribution pattern broke to the upside instead of to the downside as expected. We've seen this happen a lot lately, but now I'm watching the 30-minute 21-pma at 522.98 and the bottom of yesterday's support near 523.30, to see if the OEX can push above them or if it will roll down again now that it's tested them. We did not get our retest of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, but we did get a retest of the 60-minute 21-pma, and the OEX bounced strongly from that test.

  Jane Fox   11/4/200,  10:17:35 AM
From Investors Intelligence, the Investor's advisor's bullish % is a very bearish 57.4% and the Investor's advisor's bearish % is a very bearish 20.8%. The difference between the bulls and bears holds at a very wide level, even worse than seen in 1987 prior to the crash.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:16:46 AM
The fed had 2.5B expiring and just announced a 4B reverse repo, very rare- a net 6.5B drain today.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:14:59 AM
Matritech (NMPS) $2.28 +26.6% Link ... higher after Wall Stree Journal article regarding emerging medical science proteomics, as best hope for alternative to standard screen for prostate cancer, which is described as "wildly inaccurate." NMPS mentioned as publicly traded company, while privately held Correlogic Systems also noted. Article stated that NMPS is looking to parlay proteomics discoveries from acedemic and government labs into commercially viable prostate screens to hit the market next year.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  10:04:01 AM
The OEX tests the bottom support of that possible "b" distribution pattern on the five-minute chart, hinting at a downside near 519 if that support is broken. So far, it hasn't been firmly broken, although the OEX has pierced it temporarily a time or two. A test of 518.50-519 would bring the OEX within close proximity to its 60-minute 100/130-pma's at 517.81 and 517.26, but there's still no guarantee that the possible distribution pattern will be broken to the downside.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  10:03:14 AM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $24.38 -0.73% Link .... American Technology Research says it believes AMAT is likely to achieve or exceed 15% sequential order growth versus AMAT's 10% guidance for October quarter. Recent checks indicate that manufacturing system unit build could increase from the low 200 units level to high 200 units level in January quarter. AMAT reports quarterly earnings on November 12, with consensus at $0.05 per share.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  10:03:11 AM
Dec gold and treasuries are heading back up, with ten year notes, as well as CDN dollar futures hitting their session highs on the jobs data from Challenger.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:55:13 AM
So far, 30-minute and 60-minute oscillators promise more downside. The OEX has not so far been able to retrace to the midpoint of its first five-minute range or reclaim its 30-minute 21-pma. The five-minute pattern looks like a bearish "b" distribution pattern. A fall beneath this pattern hints at another couple of points of downside, but we OEX traders need more than a couple of points of downside. Strong support is layered between 518.50-520, confirming the "couple of points of downside" predicted by the bearish distribution pattern, if that pattern is confirmed. Personally, I'm watching for (and hoping for) another test of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's with the outcome of that test telling me which direction I should go next. If the VIX and VXO are signaling that this is the beginning of something big, then giving it another couple of points to be sure isn't going to matter dramatically in the end. If markets instead are going to bounce, then we'll be getting in at a rational point again. Actually, I'm chomping at the bit to place a trade and to call one on behalf of the readers, but this is what my more rational self decided before the market opened, and I'm sticking with that policy.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  9:52:56 AM
The VXO is up .45 to 17.54, with the TRIN 1.56 and the TICK +279. The market is still chopping along with the short cycles bottoming and the longer intraday cycles attempting to get moving to the downside, net effect being a drift lower. Bonds are holding their gains, gold softening a touch. It's still mixed and can go either way with the different cycles juxtaposed for the time being.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:47:38 AM
Weakness across the board in early going. HMO Index (HMO.X) 761.86 +0.49% and AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 210.48 +0.77% load gainers.

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 137.00 -1.2% early loser, with Oil Service (OSX.X) 82.74 -0.94% close behind.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:45:28 AM
Invivo Corp. (SAFE) $20.21 +21.5% ... higher after rejecting Intermagnetics (IMGC) $23.64 -1.41% buyout offer for $19.00 per share.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  9:43:12 AM
The TRIN is quite high at 1.61, and in potential bounce territory. If it maintains this level without a bounce for the next hour or so, it could be sigalling the beginning of a more meaningful plunge, however.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:42:09 AM
As the writers on the Futures side are warning, this is a possible bounce point, as the OEX retests its 30-minute 21-pma and the midpoint of its first five-minute range. So far, the 30-minute oscillators remain bearish, as do the 60-minute oscillators. This is also a point at which we might watch for a rollover. The pattern on the five-minute chart looks like a "b" distribution pattern, but if it's forming at the midpoint of a decline, as often happens, then it's promising only another couple of points of downside.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:35:57 AM
The OEX first five minutes had a high of 524.01 and a low of 522.05. The 50% retracement of that range lies at 523.03, and we'll watch to see how the OEX behaves with respect to that midpoint when it makes its first retracement this morning. Since that midpoint lies near the 30-minute 21-pma at 522.83, a test of that midpoint will constitute a retest of that moving average, too.

I'll be watching the OEX based on a 3MRT today since the first five-minute range was so large. The three-minute low was 522.31.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:35:55 AM
Darden Restaurants (DRI) $21.25 (no trade) .... Reports October same-store sales at Olive Garden were up 2% to 3%, but same store sales at Red Lobster were down 4% to 5%.

Looks to indicate a lower open $20.88

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:31:23 AM
Already this morning, the OEX tests the 30-minute 21-pma, at 522.88.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:28:08 AM
The OEX is above its 60-minute 100/130-pma's and in the upper half of its daily ascending regression channel, so buying the dips seems the wisest choice. But the VXO is at multi-year lows, so it's time to load up on puts. Confused? Frankly, so am I. Perhaps I'm not supposed to admit that I'm confused, but I'm doing it for a purpose. Perhaps lots of people are confused, even fund managers and people with more experience that I have. That makes for choppy markets, or markets that zoom first one direction and then another. We're told that the VIX is establishing a new range, but I hear this distinct echo in my head, saying "this time it's different," and that echo comes to me straight from late 1999 and early 2000. We're going to tread very carefully right now.

  Jeff Bailey   11/4/200,  9:28:08 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  9:23:31 AM
Here's an OEX weekly chart that I first posted in mid-October, with no alterations to trendlines or my comments: Link Notice the MACD trendline and my comments about 523.50. Can we safely say that the OEX has cleared that level?

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  8:28:19 AM
A great quote from commodity bull Jimmy Rogers:

"People are getting fed up with the dollar," said Jim Rogers, a financial author and commodities specialist. "I don't get my advice from the Fed. I'm shorting stocks right now."

S&P futures are trading 1054.75 currently, still green, while th NQ has dipped to 1438.50, down .50.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/4/200,  8:00:52 AM
Weekly chain store sales rose .5% for the week ended Nov 1, the first increase in 4 weeks. The index is down to a 5.1% increase y-o-y from 5.8%.

  Linda Piazza   11/4/200,  7:12:01 AM
Good morning. After taking a day off for a holiday, investors in the Nikkei came back ready to spend. The Nikkei opened higher and zoomed up more than 300 points higher than Friday's close. Although the Nikkei could not hold onto all those gains into the close, it held onto most. It closed higher by 288.38 points or 2.73%, at 10,847.97. Lehman raised its estimates for Japan's GDP for Q3, Q4, and the year, and expressed confidence that the prime minister's ruling Liberal Democratic Party would triumph in the November 9 general election. Others disagree, leading some to predict choppy trading this week, but there wasn't anything choppy about Tuesday's trading pattern. The dollar's gain against the yen helped exporters, and exporters and tech stocks led the gains. Toyota reports earnings Wednesday and posted strong gains ahead of those earnings. Chip stocks were still bouncing based on Sunday's report by the SIA, mentioned in my first post yesterday. Retailers were strong. Banks and financials were mixed.

Other Asian bourses were higher, too, although more modestly than the Nikkei. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.35% and South Korea's Kospi gained 0.52%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 1.85% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.44%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.87%.

European bourses trade more tentatively this morning. Automakers gained in early trading, but that positive reaction was offset by more negative news. French consumer confidence declined two points to -29 in October when economists had predicted a rise to -26. Credit Suisse Group reported in-line earnings, but investment banking profit declined, and its outlook statement failed to hearten investors. French retailer Pinault-Printempts-Redoute, a potential buyer of Gucci, suffered after two executives of Gucci said they would not extend their contracts.

Currently, the FTSE 100 has gained 4.00 points or 0.09%, to trade at 4336.60. The CAC 40 has lost 4.68 points or 0.14%, to trade at 3434.39. The DAX has dropped 4.01 points or 0.11%, to trade at 3740.49.

  Jeff Bailey   11/3/200,  12:44:48 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   11/3/200,  12:44:40 AM
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