Option Investor
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  Jeff Bailey   11/8/200,  2:26:56 AM
QQQ point and figure chart at this Link

Almost like the QQQ gains $1 per month.

This week's S2 to R1 is $2.04.

The recent relative low was $33.50, today's 52-week high was $36.18, and with WEEKLY R2 at $36.68, a move from $33.50 to $36.68 would be $2.18.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  7:42:21 PM
Market Internals since October 1. Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  7:24:17 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Note: Very tight range in the WEEKLY, most likely will see higher probability for trade at the S2 and R2.

Here is chart of S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Link

S&P futures (sp03z) settled 1,050.40, which was just below my bullish bias level.

As such, need bullish reaction out of Japan on Monday, where Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 10,629 +0.73% Link showed a 70-point gain on a trade-shortened 4-day the week.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  4:49:49 PM
As Jonathan noted at 15:04:41 regarding September consumer credit, we'll be watching next week's (Friday) October Retail Sales figures, where economists look for a modest .1% gain versus September's -0.2% decline. Ex-auto's expected to rise 0.3% and match September's 0.3% gain.

Might be revised upward based on September consumer credit, which I would think might trend higher in October. I do not currently see an October forecast for consumer credit.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  4:04:15 PM
QQQ $35.63 here.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  3:59:45 PM
QQQ $35.79 -0.44% .... will leave Bullish profile for entry of $35.63 open until 04:15:00 (so day order only). Session low so far $35.67.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  3:58:09 PM
Swing Trade Summary: OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We worked hard for our gains this week. I've been watching for key levels to be tested as opportunities for both bullish and bearish trades. This afternoon's trading sets us up for a test of another key level on Monday--the 100/130-pma's on the 30-minute and 60-minute charts. Have a great weekend, everyone.

11/05: Entered a bearish OEX trade at OEX 517.50.
11/05: Stopped at 519.00.
Result for that day: 1.50 OEX points against us.
11/06: Entered a bullish OEX trade at 521.15.
11/06: Exited at 523.50.
Result for that day: 2.35 OEX points our direction.
11/07: Entered a bearish OEX trade at 523.85.
11/07: Exited at 520.83.
Result for that day: 3.02 OEX points our direction.
Results for the week: 3.87 OEX points our direction.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  3:50:33 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,981.99 -0.11% .... lows of the session.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  3:50:01 PM
One stock that has been a regular on our OI watch list is Electronic Arts (ERTS). Americans spend more money on video games than movie tickets and shares could see a run up ahead of its Nov. 18th stock split and the holiday shopping season. A trigger over today's high at $102.00 might work well.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  3:47:03 PM
The OEX just hit our original target, but that target was set just above strong historical S/R and with the OEX hitting a level a few cents above it just before MOC orders, I didn't want to risk our gains. For those of you who elected to stay in the trade, keep ratcheting down those stops. The OEX is now below the 60-minute 21-pma at 520.80, a number you've heard me mention many times, so a stop just above 521 makes sense. The 60-minute 100/130-pma's are just below at 519.20 and 518.56, and I wouldn't expect the OEX to drop below them today. I would expect some effort to hold it above them.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  3:46:23 PM
Image of the day. Looks like the highs were set right at the open: Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  3:45:13 PM
Weekend Bullish Profile .... Bullish profile in the QQQ if QQQ trades $35.63, stop $35.45, target $36.10 for Monday morning.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  3:42:09 PM
03:15 Update at this Link

I found CNN report regarding Anthrax, which may be reason for late selling here.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  3:41:19 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We exited our bearish OEX trade at 520.83, after entering at 523.85, for 3.02 OEX points our direction. We worked hard for those points or at least I did, and I imagine there were a lot of you ought there exerting all the psychic pressure you could, too!

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  3:38:26 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's exit here. Too much chance of a bounce from here.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  3:35:27 PM
Bears and bulls might note that Wachovia (WB), one of the larger banks, is poking up above resistance at $46 to hit new 5-year highs. The stock doesn't move very quick for option traders but we're certainly seeing some relative strength given the red banking indices.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  3:34:56 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 522.80, just above a descending line I've drawn on my two-minute chart. If the OEX is going to pop on MOC orders, we want to be out as soon as possible, with at least a minimum of profit for all this hard work. I'll be lowering the stop again soon.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  3:30:13 PM
Do we have another put candidate forming in PACCAR (PCAR)? The stock has been consolidating sideways with higher lows and lower highs as the simple 50-dma applies pressure from above. The stock is down 2.66% today and is very close to breaking out to the downside from this trend. Wait for the break but Bears might want to target a potential move to $70 or maybe the simple 200-dma near 67.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  3:15:12 PM
The VXO is down .11 at 17.47, p/c ratio .75.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  3:11:58 PM
The NDX is showing a fairly nicely formed potential H&S on its 2-minute chart. The neckline was pierced once, briefly, with the NDX quickly rebounding. If it continues that rebound, it may quickly bounce because such moves can be explosive when the bulls feel relief that the bearishness was not confirmed. The neckline is between 1446-1447.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  3:04:41 PM

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  3:04:28 PM
That consumer credit number is like a posterchild for the Kondratieff Winter, and gold has just spiked, now up at its session high at 383.90, HUI +3.91 at 210.93. You want inflation? There it is.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  3:04:13 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 523.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  3:02:40 PM

Estimates were for 5.3B.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  2:59:21 PM
Here's our quandary today. The OEX is trapped between this descending trendline and this 30-minute 21-pma. Link

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  2:52:00 PM
We've had a series of triangles set up on the OEX five-minute chart today, with a false upside breakout one time and a false downside breakout a little while ago. Where she's going, nobody knows right now because the OEX is back inside the latest triangle, but I'm still worried about a bounce.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  2:50:25 PM
Afternoon Sector Winnners:

XAU gold & silver index: +2.19%
XBD broker-dealer index: +1.57%
XAL airlines index: +1.23%
INX Internet index: +1.02%
SOX semiconductor index: +1.02%

Afternoon Sector Losers:

DJUSHB homebuilders index: -4.75%
IUX insurance index: -1.00%

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  2:37:55 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX is now at the 30-minute 21-pma, which has been rising as price has been declining. This is either the start of the decline toward 520.50-521, or else it's the start of a bounce. As I've warned several times today, conservative traders might want to exit at this level, as there's prime bounce potential here.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  2:36:28 PM
Fox News article sent to me by subscriber does note an Al Qaeda Web site posted a warning to Muslims to leave Washington, D.C., New York City and Los Angeles.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  2:32:46 PM
We're approaching a new low on the OEX. We will want to see the OEX below that low to avoid the possibility of a double bottom forming. So far, so good, though.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  2:24:14 PM
Wow. I looked away from the screen for a second, expecting the OEX to be near our stop when I looked back and it had dived instead. We still have to get below those previous lows, however.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  2:23:20 PM
Shopping for the person who has everything? Instead of high-end catalogs with treasures fit for the likes of Dennis Kozlowski turn instead to a London auction where you can bid on a piece of aviation history. Yes, I'm talking about the Concorde.

Recently retired after 30 years of flying the Concorde is being auctioned off by British Airways with profits going to charity. Everything from the china place settings to the gauges to the tail wheel or even the droop-snoot nose cone. Bidding begins on Dec. 1st.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  2:20:33 PM
Who knows? .... now seeing reports that the dollar is weaker on rumor that the U.S. is about to raise its terror alert level.

Kathy Lien, chief fundamental analyst with Forex Capital Markets said the rumors proved enough to send the dollar lower with a light economic schedule next week.

Would only use this information for risk management. I would NOT try and trade off this rumor.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  2:07:26 PM
OEX 524.04 is the 50% retracement of the day's range, so if you consider the entire zig-zagging rise from the 12:35 low a possible bear flag, the OEX just now stopped at the 50% retracement of the flagpole drop that preceded it. I was on the verge of exiting the play when I noticed that, but we really are not safe yet just because the OEX turned down from that test of the 50% range. Our 524.50 stop will take us out just after that midpoint is cleared, so it's set at a good place, I think.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  2:00:10 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $29.82 +1.67% ... Hi Jeff, TRMB flirting with $30 and trying to add an x to Low pole reversal. Thoughts? Thanks KW

Nothing new here... still waiting for the "prove it to me trade" of $30.00 Link where a trade at that level could unleash some major short covering.

Stock has made a nice little 2-day move from its bar chart's "inside day" but if stock is as bullish as I think it could be, then should be able to trade $30.00.

I've taken an upward trend from the 07/01/03 low of $21.69 to 07/29/03 low of $23.40. Stock has been finding bullish resistance at that trend, so I want proof.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:59:36 PM
I have drawn so many retracement brackets on my charts, but I've just placed a new one on the two-minute OEX chart, marking the decline from the 13:28 high to the 13:48 low, with the midpoint of that decline being at 523.26. The OEX should not climb above that level if this is just a measured distribution pattern sending the OEX higher, although the OEX has been overshooting some of those marks a bit.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  1:58:21 PM
The way parents spend money on kids these days I can't imagine how any of these stores do poorly.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:56:45 PM
That Zany Brainy store is great, James. I never understood why they're having so many difficulties. Every time I visited the Houston one, it had plenty of parents shopping for the items.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  1:55:37 PM
If you didn't hear it on CNBC earlier FAO Inc (FAOO), parent to FAO Schwarz, Right Start and Zany Brainy stores, may not last the month. The company said they may not have enough cash to make it through November and December may depend on an advance loan from the bank to stock up for the holiday season.

The company is considering selling and the stock is down more than 55 percent to $1.95.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:54:39 PM
If anything, volume patterns appear even more bullish, with adv:dec ratios at 19:13 for the NYSE and 17:14 for the Nasdaq as of a few minutes ago. Up volume was ahead of down volume on both exchanges and new highs trumped new lows, at 830 new highs to 20 new lows. Total volume was 822 million for the NYSE and 1.3 billion for the Nasdaq.

We're on dangerous ground here with our bearish play, but it's still working and our stop will take us out at a small loss, so I'm comfortable letting it work a while longer. If you're not, consider exiting here and taking your profit, because as we approach the previous low, it's time for another possible bounce.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  1:53:42 PM
Steve McQueen reversal in the HUI, now up 2.99 at 210.01. Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  1:48:44 PM
Here's a linear chart back to Oct 1999: Link

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  1:48:17 PM
Thanks Jonathan!

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  1:46:43 PM
Jeff Here ya go- it's the best I can do at this Link . I'm still meditating on the implications of a drop to make June's look like "a rounding error"...

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  1:44:33 PM
Jonathan .... Per your 13:38:49 post, is there a chart I can access of the VXO dating back prior to June 2002? My Qcharts only shows the VXO starting 09/22/03 and I'd like to set up a historical retracement on it, like I have the VIX.X.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:43:15 PM
If the OEX cannot break soundly through that ascending trendline on my chart (at about 522.85) and below the day's low soon, I'm going to suggest that we exit with our profit, minimal as it might be.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  1:42:52 PM
Ouch! I know Jeff already commented on the DJUSHB but are there any bears brave enough to short this move? The daily chart on the DJUSHB appears to be producing a three-candle reversal signal and the 4.45% drop today is still picking up speed.

Hitting the group is a downgrade of Ryland Corp (RYL) and MDC Holdings (MDC) from CS First Boston to "neutral". Plus, BB&T Capital Markets has cut Beazer Homes (BZH) to a "buy".

Check out these losses today:

BZH is down $3.63 (3.43%) and back under the $105 level.

MDC is down $3.64 (5.19%) and breaking its month-long trend of higher lows. Next stop $60?

RYL is down $5.84 (-6.28%) and breaking support at $90 and sellers might be eyeing the $80 mark.

HOV is down $3.12 (-3.59%) and back under the $85 level. There could be support at $80 but it looks stronger at $75.

PHM is down $3.16 (3.45%) and breaking under the $90 mark. This stock is very over extended.

NVR is down $24.02 (4.89%) and breaking support at $475.00 and heading for $450.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:41:21 PM
If that OEX rise off the low was a measured distribution pattern such as a bear flag, it has now broken the downside, with the OEX dropping quickly once it did. This comes during the normal stop-running time of day, however, and much depends on whether the OEX quickly rebounds from this decline.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  1:31:35 PM
Dec gold up 3.20 now at 383.90. The VXO chart looks so primed for a massive bullish engulfing candle... but timing is everything.

  Jane Fox   11/7/200,  1:30:41 PM
I particularly liked Mr. Dinky!

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:30:25 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's do raise the stop to 524.50. The descending trendline off today's highs cuts across at about 524.15, so it would be a shame to be stopped out just ahead of a turnaround. I apologize for the change.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  1:29:47 PM
James, if you can dig up that video, I'm drooling for a copy. That video WAS the dotbomb mania for me.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  1:28:51 PM
Dec gold at a new high of the day, up 2.80 at 383.50, silver up 1.86% at 5.049. I'll just bet that Soros is buying with both paws. No way that a guy like that speaks publicly to help better the lot of us plebes.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  1:27:38 PM
hey... I liked Stewart. I have that movie somewhere on my PC.

...Let's light this candle...

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:26:42 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The current OEX rise off the day's low could have been a bear flag, but it retraced more than 50% of the flagpole. That typically does not happen. The OEX has now settled again at the 50% retracement, at about 523.50 and appears to be trying to rise from there. I think it's likely that we may get stopped out soon. Studying the descending trendline off today's peaks, my stop may actually be too low by about $0.25-.50, but I hate to keep changing stops. Those who are so inclined might give their personal stops that extra leeway.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  1:22:52 PM
See my earlier comment on this one, James- looks like it's time to dust off Stewart the Photocopy Boy and get him to start touting K-Mart again :)

  James Brown   11/7/200,  1:21:25 PM
Online trading firm Ameritrade Holding (AMTD) reported strong trading volume and new account growth one day after announcing plans to buy Bidwell & Co, an Oregon-based brokerage.

AMTD added 32,000 new accounts in October as daily trading volume surged to 170,000 trades.

The stock is up 4.47% after finding new support near $12.25 in the last two sessions. Stock traders could speculate on a continuation of the bounce as AMTD's stochastics, RSI and momentum oscillators turn higher from oversold, but be aware the stock still has a short-term trend of lower highs to deal with.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  1:10:23 PM
The American pack rat is alive and well as we see yet another new high for Public Storage (PSA) but this time the 4.69% gain was produced by a big upgrade from Smith Barney from "hold" to a "buy". The broker has raised their price target from $38 to $47. Shares are currently trading just north of $43.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:09:50 PM
The OEX should be hitting next resistance near 523.25-523.50. If it's not turned back near that level, the tenor might have changed.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  1:06:38 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I'm nervous in this trade. Adv:dec ratios have never turned bearish. Lower the stop to 524. We might get taken out on the 1:35-1:55 stop-running push, but that's a chance we perhaps ought to take.

  James Brown   11/7/200,  1:00:01 PM
It's been a rough month for shares of drug maker Wyeth (WYE). The stock has slowly drifted from resistance at $48 down towards its simple 200-dma near 42.50 as investors worry over the slower than expected launch for its FluMist product.

Yesterday the stock was hit with more bad news as concerns over quality produce delays in shipping its Prevnar vaccine, designed for childhood pneumonia.

Now shares are being hit for another 7.6% loss after a Texas jury rules against WYE in a fen-phen (diet pill) case. The high volume drop in the stock has broken support at its 200-dma and the $40.00 level.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  12:53:53 PM
The OEX is still clinging to that old trendline on my chart. We're just going to have to wait it out and see if the OEX is going to roll over here or bounce strongly.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  12:51:40 PM
I see gold near its high of the day at 382.20 currently, the CRB challenging its 52 week high, and only bonds are holding their initial weakness from the incredibly bullish morning reports. I don't believe hype about "computer glitches" for the kind of selling we're seeing the dollar, and George Soros was talking down gold yesterday, which is the biggest buy signal I could imagine. While I am dubious of gold's ability to run straight up to and through 390-410 resistance, the selloff of the USD in all the currency pairs I follow, and the bullishness in gold and silver and the CRB are for real. I'll follow the price every time.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  12:49:05 PM
December Gold futures (gc03z) 381.40 +0.17% .... I'm delayed 30-minutes, but not seeing anything overly bullish in gold, that would confirm some type of dollar weakness being attributed to the computer glitch talk.

Jonathan.... your thoughts?

Treasuries seem steady too? Would think they'd be showing greater volatility.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  12:46:51 PM
Nothing at my end, Jeff, but if it's real selling taking place, I wouldn't be surprised to see rumors to obfuscate the facts.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  12:46:41 PM
I haven't seen anything about the dollar, either, Jeff.

  Jane Fox   11/7/200,  12:45:28 PM
Jeff I'm not seeing anything in the WSJ, yet.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  12:42:46 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 93.16 -0.77% .... Jonathan, Jane, Linda, Jim... ... I've seen various reports on the dollar reversal as to computer glitch may have triggered dollar selling, but also reports of overseas selling in the dollar. Have you seen anyt reports that have been concrete?

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  12:35:15 PM
The OEX hits an old ascending trendline on my chart, a trendline that currently coincides with support predicted by the nested five-minute Keltner channels I watch. Those channels are proving great tools for predicting short-term support and resistance. Those two different types of support were the reasons why I predicted that the OEX would probably be hitting a bounce point soon in my 12:28 post. It's beginning right on time, but hopefully it won't carry the OEX far. This old trendline was a short-term one that I began back on Wednesday, as the OEX was hitting its morning low. The OEX has violated that trendline, but it keeps proving important, with lots of five-minute candles opening or closing along that trendline. As Jim mentioned earlier, I tend to keep those old trendlines on my chart, because they certainly prove important later. That means that the charts I use are almost illegible and I have to clean them up before posting them, but I'm fond of those old trendlines.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  12:28:39 PM
I believe the OEX is going to hit a bounce point any moment. That bounce might take it back up to 523.67 or so, although I hope it will stop lower, at about 523.50 if not even lower than that.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  12:26:46 PM
Eastman Kodak (EK) $25.01 +1.74% ... moves above 50-day SMA and #2 Dow gainer on reports that EK's Chairman Daniel Carp will meet with billionaire Carl Icahn next week, where the two may be discussing Icahn's intentions to buy a large stake in the company.

Mr. Icahn recently won approval from U.S. Federal Trade Commission to buy roughly $500 million worth of Kodak stock.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  12:26:06 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 525. If this drop continues, we'll soon lower the stop to breakeven, but conservative traders might want to do that now.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  12:22:57 PM
Really appreciate the links that we can refresh. Thanks. The dollar index is still 'droppin like a rock'.

The CRB is making new highs, gold and silver are solid, and treasuries are weak. Foreign currencies are rallying. If this is the first outflow of funds from US assets, I believe that equities shoud get severely sold at some point. Combined with the rest of the picture, volatility, bullish percents, etc., and the risk for equity longs is just that much higher.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  12:19:03 PM
Netease (NTES) $42.40 +0.92% .... traded lower earlier this morning. Will continue to monitor stock. I have a very short-term regression channel from the recent 52-week high, where base regression is $40.00.

Thoughts this morning as it relates to NTES and perhaps broader market is "why the heck aren't we seeing bigger gains?" and analysis was that while bears should be jittery, they are looking at some lover level to flip the switch for short-covering after seeing yet another 52-week high.

If NTES beging to bid above the $47.00 level, then I might become more alert on a broader market basis that shorts may start a more meaningful cutting of losses.

I would certainly keep an eye on the TRAN for strong support of 2,900, and would be looking for correlative levels of support in the major indices, perhaps in next week's WEEKLY pivots, where good pullback bullish entries find a strong bounce.

In my mind, today's new 52-week highs, while fractional, are DIVERGENCE from past trade, and should lead to new highs.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  12:14:35 PM
I've turned to watching the OEX on a two-minute chart this morning because the two-minute oscillators are matching the two-minute highs and lows more closely than they are on different charts. We've had bearish divergence on those oscillators and now possible bullish divergence. Conservative traders might consider lowering their stop to somewhere just north of 525, giving a little leeway for the OEX to overrun the last two-minute high. For now, I'm keeping the official stop where it is, but stay tuned for a quick exit signal if I feel things are heating up too much.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  12:09:14 PM
We finally have a new low on the OEX, but it occurred as the OEX tested the bearish #2 on the 5MRT system. I would have expected a bounce attempt there, and it's occurring as I type. First resistance now is near our entry at 523.85 and then just over 524, but strong resistance doesn't begin until 524.50 or so.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  12:05:09 PM
QQQ $35.99 +0.14% .... I see the QQQ traded a session low of $35.89, which was right at my aggressive bull stop of $35.89.

As such... will most likely stay flat in the QQQ unless I were to see a nice little pullback into $35.65 area. Will not mind staying flat over the weekend, get some new weekly levels.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  11:52:06 AM
Adv:dec ratios are still bullish, but less so than earlier this morning. Currently, they're 18:13 for the NYSE and 16:13 for the Nasdaq. Up volume is higher on both exchanges, too. We want to see a continual deterioration in those ratios to justify staying in this trade. We need to see that happen soon.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  11:47:45 AM
The US Dollar Index is back down to 93.20 after a vertiginous drop. Dec gold up 1.40, silver +.068 or 1.37%.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  11:38:54 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I was just about to say that I was thinking about an early exit at breakeven when the markets turned up again. I guess I should always obey those instincts, but there really wasn't any specific evidence. I just don't like the way the trade is progressing. Since the OEX has begun to climb, I'm now watching the descending trendline off this morning's highs and the now-broken ascending trendline. If one of those doesn't stop the advance, I may be issuing an early exit signal soon.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  11:36:27 AM
The put to call ratio is .75, VXO currently 17.69.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  11:19:00 AM
One danger sign that I do see here is that the OEX five-minute chart shows possible bullish divergence between price lows and stochastics and MACD lows. They're reaching lower values while the OEX is not.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  11:14:30 AM
It looks as if 525 should now serve as decent intraday resistance for the OEX. If it doesn't, something may be wrong with the thinking on this bearish play. Conservative traders might want to lower their stops accordingly, but I'm keeping our official stop at 526 for now.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  11:12:30 AM
Some signs, such as 30-minute 5(3)3 stochastics, are supporting our bearish position, and some aren't yet doing so. That's what happens with an early entry. Of course, that's also what happens with an entry that may be on the wrong side, too! So far, all is working okay, although of course, I'd rather have seen the OEX plummet to our profit target straight away. We're still not out of danger here, and do need the OEX to get below 523.50.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  11:08:57 AM
While we wait, here's something for a laugh: Link

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  11:06:03 AM
Here's the symmetrical triangle on the OEX three-minute chart: Link

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  11:01:42 AM
The OEX again tests the ascending trendline that began forming yesterday afternoon. It's held on five separate tests since yesterday afternoon. Let's see if it does again.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:55:34 AM
The OEX has now settled into a symmetrical triangle on the five-minute chart. Since it settled into this pattern after a rise, the presumption is that it will break out to the upside, too. I'll be watching this pattern for an upside break, and we may exit early if that happens.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  10:50:03 AM
Gold is at a new high at 382.10, with the CRB up 1.01 at 249.65. Euros are at their session high. It looks like a foreign exodus from the USD.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:44:25 AM
Rogue Wave Software (RWAV) $6.70 +1.51% ... noted this one several sessions ago and got stopped out on day trade long. Upside alert here at new high and decent looking bullish trade.

I'm tied up with e-mail server problems, and all I can do at this point to follow major indices and e-mail server issues. As such, use the techiques we've been using, but I will most likely not profile additional trades today until I get some problems resolved.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:42:42 AM
That's better. Now let's see if the OEX breaks the H&S neckline, currently at 524, a first occurrence we want to see. Next is a new one-minute low, if not a new five-minute low. That may not be happening, though, as the OEX turns around while I'm typing ahead of that neckline and new one-minute low.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX (and other markets) steady now, however, as bulls and bears battle it out. I would have preferred to have waited until the battle was over to decide on an entry, but I wanted to get in high enough that we had a close stop, too, in case we were on the wrong side.

  Jim Brown   11/7/200,  10:40:11 AM
Heck of a deal for Barnes and Noble. They went public at $25 back in early 1999 with 163 million shares. This produced a cash windfall of about $4 billion. They are buying back all their shares now at $2.78 for about $100 million. Good move and excellent market timing for BNBN. $3.9 billion windfall for BNBN, $3.9 billion loss for investors. We really don't know how many shares actually made it into circulation from the IPO. Float shows to be only 46 million so the actual gain is probably a lot less than $3.9B but still a windfall.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:37:10 AM
Pivot Matrix observations has all but the BIX.X 332.14 -0.03% having traded their WEEKLY R1s this week.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:32:15 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3002.39 +0.56% ... session highs. Bulls say.. "whew!"

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:31:04 AM
We may be quickly stopped out of our position this morning. The OEX five-minute chart showed a H&S developing and the OEX minimally violating that neckline at the time I issued the signal, but the OEX turned around and has now swept above the right-shoulder level. The last-concluded 30-minute candle did not verify the bearishness, the first time that's happened in a year with a candle that looked like the preceding candle.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:30:48 AM
QQQ $36.10 +0.44% ... back near session high of $36.17. I like our trailing stop method at this point. Let the MARKET decide for us.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:28:34 AM
KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 955.52 +0.03% .... modestly green here. Similar to BIX.X 331.84 -0.11% was slightly weak in early going. Stability and modest gain a positive intra-day.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  10:26:17 AM
MSFT is at its session highs.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  10:25:41 AM
Gold and silver are now back to positive territory, ditto the XAU, with HUI lagging, now down 1.28 on the day. Euro, swiss franc and CDN dollars are all rallying, with CDN dollar futures now up 1.31%.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:25:06 AM
QQQ $35.97 +0.11% .... Raising stop further to just below morning pullback low of $35.89 after seeing TRAN come back to kiss the 3,000 level but turn back.

QQQ ... raising stop to $35.87

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:24:37 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We entered a bearish OEX position at 523.85. Stop at 526. Target 520.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:23:23 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Enter a bearish OEX position here. Stop at 526. Target 520.

  Jane Fox   11/7/200,  10:21:19 AM
From the And the Beat Goes On Column - According to calculations by AMG Data Services, investors withdrew $4.4 billion Putnam Investments in the week ended Wednesday, the first full week of such data since the SEC and Massachusetts regulators filed civil securities fraud charges against Putnam. This is above and beyond the more than $4 billion that has been pulled by institutional investors, including state pension plans in Vermont, Rhode Island, Iowa and Pennsylvania. The withdrawals are among the largest experienced by a fund complex in a single week.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  10:20:44 AM
Dec gold is up to 380.50, HUI -1.79 at 205.23, XAU -.14 at 94.80.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:17:17 AM
Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 575.57 -2.61% ... here's quick look at DJUSHB chart, where I believe last time we looked, DJUSHB was trading around 527.75. At time thought a pullback to 482 on profit taking. Was wrong with that analysis, alerted traders to bullish upside move above 542. Today's decline comes from upper end of channel. May make sense for some profit taking near-term, to mid-point of regression. Link

I might think some profits rotated into retailers with holiday shopping season ahead.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:14:14 AM
I'm looking for a lower five-minute high as a signal that perhaps we should consider a bearish entry.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:12:54 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm considering a bearish OEX entry. I just scrolled back through this entire year's chart and do not see a single instance when the OEX printed a 30-minute candle like the previous thirty-minute candle that was not followed by a drop. Sometimes those drops were small, but sometimes they weren't.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:11:00 AM
Sector action mixed to higher with fractional gains evenly spread.

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 574.77 -2.74% is only sector lower by more than 1% after CSFB downgrade of LEN $92.73 -2.3% and TOL $38.67 -3.4%.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:09:25 AM
That test of this morning's OEX gap perhaps was an opportune time to enter a long play. Time will tell, but with the last two OEX 30-minute candles signaling a potential reversal, I sure didn't feel comfortable entering long on a bounce from the bottom of the gap. I'd rather stand aside and let a play go on without me than enter with two potential reversal signals in a row.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  10:06:38 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,998 +0.42% ... holding steady

QQQ $36.00 +0.23%, SPX 1,058.66 +0.05%

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:04:35 AM
The OEX now tests the bottom of its gap this morning. With its failure to stabilize above the midpoint of the gap and those potential reversal signals on the 30-minute charts, we should now have some concerns about strength, but concerns that need to be confirmed. It's climbing now, and now we'll have to watch for signs of a rollover at the top of the gap or below this morning's high, or else a push above that high to refute our concerns.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  10:01:20 AM
The last two 30-minute candles (last 30 minutes of yesterday and first 30 minutes of today)are potential reversal signals.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  10:00:51 AM
The put to call ratio for the 1st half hour was .62, with the VXO currently 17.74.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  9:59:40 AM
Wholesale Inventories rose 0.4% in September, compares to consensus of 0.2%.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  9:58:49 AM
NVIDIA (NVDA) $21.60 +18.8% .... big gainer and most actively traded in early going after last night's Q3 earnings.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  9:56:48 AM
3.5B weekend repo announced, which is a .75B net add from the Fed.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:56:11 AM
The OEX now has strong support between the current level and 523.30. Or it should. If it doesn't, then that confirms early weakness.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  9:54:24 AM
Wholesale Inventories for Sept. due out at 10:00 AM EST. Consensus is for +0.2%.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:53:49 AM
Perhaps it's telling that this morning's OEX climb has not yet breached the bullish #2 on the 5MRT system, and so the day's trading so far remains within the neutral range. The OEX appears to be steadying at the midpoint of this morning's gap, a bullish reaction if it continues, but the period of the first morning's reversal does not typically end for another ten minutes or so, so we can't yet be sure.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  9:53:03 AM
GE is printing a session low here, -.56%. Things always look most bullish at the top.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  9:51:27 AM
Blinding glimpse of the obvious for today:


  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:50:28 AM
The OEX comes back to test its gap, as I mentioned it might do this morning. If it steadies above the midpoint of that gap and then moves up again, that's a clue that the bullish tenor remains. If it does, that's a different kind of clue and would validate the caution many of us felt this morning.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  9:46:12 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 331.69 -0.16% .... I don't like this type of trade from the banks.

QQQ bulls from Wednesday's $35.74 bullish entry, immediately raise stops to break even here. Raising stop to $35.74

Most likely this fractional weakness in the banks from the stronger nonfarm numbers and thoughts of interest rate hike by Fed triggers some profit taking in the group.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:44:35 AM
It's tough to watch a move get away without us, isn't it, especially when we were in a bullish play yesterday and closed it? Over the years, I've learned that the next great play will always come along, though, and the late-day reaction yesterday as well as the futures' reaction this morning made me cautious. They still do, as this first 30-minute candle often sees big reversals.

Perhaps some of you stayed in the trade overnight? If so, keep raising your stops to capture your profit or perhaps set an appropriate profit target. The current level might be one possible profit target, for example, with 528-530 looking as if they might be the limit to possible upside today if the gains continue.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  9:39:05 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 3,001.11 +0.52% .... upside alert here per last night's Index Trader Wrap Link

Benchmarking .... INDU=9,900 , SPX = 1,062, OEX = 525.7, NDX = 1,452, QQQ = $36.08, RUT.X = 546.75

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  9:37:57 AM
QQQ $36.06 +0.33% .... 5-MRT in place, I see BLUE #6 would be $36.83, which is very close to WEEKLY R2 of $36.85.

More reasonable and achievable intra-day target into the weekend would be BLUE #4 at $36.50.

As such.... lets leave bullish stop at $35.43 and target at $36.49.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:34:50 AM
The OEX first five minutes hit a low of 524.28 and a high of 525.15. The midpoint of that range lies at 524.72, with the OEX currently just above that level, indicating early strength. However, the first reversal typically does not get underway for a few more moments, and we also have a gap to watch this morning, with that gap possibly large enough that the OEX might need to retrace to that level to test it.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:31:46 AM
The OEX tests 525. If it can clear this level, OEX 528-530 are the next likely upside targets, but we have to see what happens on the first reversal.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:29:38 AM
Looks as if Jim and I are thinking along the same lines, as his futures update, posted a few minutes ahead of my options one, voices some of the same concerns I feel. If you haven't read his update, you might skip over to the futures side and do so.

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  9:27:17 AM
We're flat in the index swing trade model this morning. The OEX closed at the 523.50-524 level I've been watching for weeks, with recently established resistance just overhead at 525. The OEX is above its 60-minute 100/130-pma's, so we're technically in a buy-the-dip mode. Daily MACD turns up again, supporting that bullish thesis. However, once again, the futures' tepid reaction to yesterday's late-day gains, gains in the European and Asian markets, and this morning's U.S. economic numbers make me cautious. I imagine there will be a drive to move the markets in such a way that the newspapers this weekend can give glowing reports, but I would imagine that selling would increase as markets climb higher, too, perhaps stunting any gains. If the selling overwhelms the buying, then we could even see a lower close. Maybe a much lower close, but my first scenario is that we see stunted gains and I'll be watching for evidence that refutes that scenario or confirms it. We don't want to be in the market if there are going to be minimal gains and then an absolute stop as the markets are held at certain levels.

  Jeff Bailey   11/7/200,  9:21:09 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  8:33:31 AM
Speculative bubble? Someone dust off Stewart the K-Mart-touting photocopy boy:


  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  8:32:42 AM

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  8:31:13 AM
Total hours worked in the economy rose 0.4 percent to the highest level since January.

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  8:30:41 AM
August's 41,000-job loss was revised to a gain of 35,000

  Jonathan Levinson   11/7/200,  8:29:58 AM
8:30am U.S. OCT. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 126,000 V 56,000 EXPECTED

Nonfarm payroll last mth revised up to 125 v 57K

  Linda Piazza   11/7/200,  7:13:31 AM
Good morning. As I've mentioned a couple of times this week, many projected that the Nikkei's trading pattern would be volatile ahead of this weekend's general election. That's certainly been true, and last night's trading pattern was particularly volatile. The Nikkei opened slightly higher, touched the flatline, climbed to the day's high of 10,641.50, then dove, reaching the day's low of 10,479.25 by mid-afternoon. Then the Nikkei climbed into the close, closing up 76.68 points or 0.73%, at 10,628.98. A firming of the dollar against the yen helped the Nikkei to stabilize, with exporters benefiting from that firming dollar. Some also credited the banking stocks with the late-day recovery. The recently beaten-down banking stocks, declining because of worries over reforms that might be enacted after the election, might have seen a bout of short-covering ahead of the election.

Higher semiconductor stocks benefited Asian bourses, with most climbing. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.72% and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.77%. Singapore's Straits Times climbed 0.34% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.54%. China's Shanghai Composite lost ground, however, losing 1.59%.

Most European bourses currently trade higher, despite the release of a September industrial production number for Germany that showed an unexpected drop of 1.2%. Economists had predicted a gain of 2%. Stocks that rose included drugmaker Bayer AG, insurer Aegon NV, and Royal Philips Electronics NV.

Currently, the FTSE 100 gains 61.10 points or 1.41%, to trade at 4385.30. The CAC 40 gains 46.41 points or 1.36%, to trade at 3458.59. The DAX has risen 66.22 points or 1.77%, to 3800.15.

  Jeff Bailey   11/6/200,  12:17:45 AM
Pivot Matrix at this Link

  OI Technical Staff   11/6/200,  12:17:34 AM
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