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  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  6:17:01 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Trackers have QQQ at $36.01, SPY at $106.45 and DIA at $98.98 in late session trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  5:00:27 PM
QQQ $35.81 +2.13% ... settling down a bit here at $36.01.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:50:16 PM
eSpeed (ESPD) $26.42 +1.73% Link ... lower at $24.45 after reporting quarterly earnings of $0.19 per share, which was a penny better than consensus estimates.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:43:10 PM
Anntaylor (ANN) $36.94 +0.46% Link ... unchanged after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.63, which was a penny better than consensus.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:26:32 PM
Ventiv Health (VTIV) $8.63 +4.86 Link ... surging to $9.62 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.12, compared to consensus of $0.07.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:25:06 PM
Medtronic (MDT) $44.37 +1.18% Link ... edging up at $44.80 after reporting quarterly EPS of $0.39, which was inline with $0.39 consensus estimates.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:21:37 PM
DR Horton (DHI) $41.39 +3.52% Link ... jumps to $43.43 after reporting quarterly EPS of $1.46, which was 16 cents better than forecast.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:17:41 PM
Still waiting on .... ANN $36.94 +0.46%, DHI $41.39 +3.52%, ESPD $26.42 +1.73%, MDT +44.37 +1.18%, WFMI $58.73 -2.10% earnings.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:06:39 PM
Applied Materials (AMAT) $25.44 +2.16% Link .... higher at $25.65 after reporting EPS of $0.06, which was a penny ahead of consensus. Revenues were $1.22 billion, compared to consensus of $1.13 billion.

AMAT saying orders were $1.28 billion versus prior guidance of $1.15 billion.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  4:01:57 PM
Swing Trade Summary: OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Tomorrow should prove exciting, with the OEX snugged underneath the 525-526 S/R, ready to pop above it or go down from here. I'm sorry to be missing tomorrow morning's action. We've got a possible continuation inverse H&S neckline to watch, with the daily oscillators hooking back up to follow today's action. Be careful of false moves, though, as I would imagine there could be some volatility as the OEX approaches that important zone. 11/12: Entered a bullish OEX trade at OEX 521.29.
11/12: Exited at 524.32.
Result for that day: 3.03 OEX points our direction.
Results for the week: 3.03 OEX points our direction.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  4:00:05 PM
QQQ $35.85 +2.25% .... will raise stop from profiled $34.95 to $35.45, leave target at $36.15 into AMAT earnings. Would still be willing to sell after-hours QQQ trade at $36.15 on knee-jerk type of bullish reaction to AMAT.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:57:37 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We exited our OEX long position at 524.32. We entered the position at 521.29, so participated in a 3.03 OEX gain our direction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:55:39 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's exit here. We've got a few points of cushion here, so those traders who feel brave can hold on overnight, but those trades haven't been successful lately and the OEX is closing up against possible strong resistance. I will not be here tomorrow morning, so you're on your own if you hold overnight.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:53:44 PM
Just getting back online. Be back soon with an exit. Be prepared.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  3:48:05 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $27.90 +0.83% ... stopped on day trade long from $28.05.

I'm almost assured this thinner traded stock is being "manipulated." Will most likely be taken higher now that my profiled stop has been triggered. Will try and avoid profiling thinner traded stocks in the future for day trades.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:24:38 PM
I will be offline for a few minutes. Bad timing for Comcast to do repair work, but I didn't set the timing.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:19:53 PM
The OEX 14:57 (3-minute) candle was a larger-than-normal candle. Candlestick theory says that support should be found at the midpoint of such candles. That midpoint lies at 524.05. If the OEX instead breaks below that point, some of the bullish feeling may have evaporated, but our 523.50 stop will catch us and take us out for a profit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  3:14:03 PM
Swing Trade Signals
I've just learned that my cable connection may be off for a few minutes, perhaps sometime in the next hour. We've got our 523.50 stop in place. If I disappear for a few minutes, consider raising the stop as the last hour progresses. I'm afraid that 525-526 may be the top of the movement this afternoon.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  3:07:53 PM
Not "overly bullish" looking if you're a VXN.X follower. VXN.X 25.58 -3.65% sitting right on its trying to round higher 21-day SMA.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  3:00:52 PM
Treasuries finish their trade with the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) lower by 4.8 basis points at 4.412%.

Benchmarking INDU = 9,854, SPX = 1,058.7, OEX = 524.5, NDX = 1,440, QQQ = $35.84, RUT.X = 538.98

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:59:29 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I think we ought to be considering taking profit soon. Just in case I'm wrong, what I'm going to do is follow stops up closely. Raise stop to 523.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:56:44 PM
Buy Program Premium Alert .... that'll get the INDU 9,844 +1.09% moving.

"I think I can, I think I can..." 10,000

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:55:06 PM
All Sectors in the green with exception of the Utility Index (UTY.X) 288.44 -0.16%. 3-minutes left to go in the bond market trade after what sounded like a very strong 5-year bond auction.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:54:32 PM
Doing a quick scan of some mid-cap stocks and I notice some tempting moves for bullish plays. Note: these are very quick observations and should require additional due diligence.

SanDisk (SNDK) is bouncing from the $81 level and if the trend continues bulls might target the 90 mark.

CDW Corp (CDWC) is bouncing from its simple 50-dma and has reclaimed the $60 mark. The rally today is breaking the recent trend of lower highs.

DieBold (DBD) might be offering an entry point with a bounce off the bottom of its rising channel, simple 30-dma and round-number support at $55. It may take 3-to-4 weeks but bulls could target $60. I would use a tight stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:51:52 PM
Today has been a good example day on intra-day charts of how the BIX has lead in its WEEKLY matrix, how SPX/QQQ/OEX have lagged the move higher relative to the WEEKLY, and now how the INDU is trying to play catch up.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  2:49:00 PM
HUI is holding its gains, up 12.64 at 221.55, XAU +3.96 at 100.44. Dec gold is up 6.80, silver up .253 or 4.99%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:47:12 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $28.20 +2.20% .... there's the pop, lets see if they'll drive it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:45:57 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,942 +0.51% .... a little smoke from the exhaust as TRANS builds to a session high. Equity bulls need them with the bond market close just 12 mintues away.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:41:27 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
New stop at 522.50. Reasoning: That's just below a 50% retracement of the flagpole rise from 522.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:41:02 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $28.04 +1.44% .... It isn't a bank and its not part of the INDU, but lets day trade long here at $28.05 offer, stop $27.90, target $28.50 by the close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:40:08 PM
OEX 523.50-524 is of course also possible strong resistance. I'm considering setting a profit target between 524-526, but would actually prefer to follow the OEX up with stops, I believe. Stay tuned for a new stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:39:34 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 331.72 +0.53% ... session high and trading its WEEKLY 38.2% pivot retracement level. Looking bullish for the major indices here.

Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,830 +0.93% just above its WEEKLY Pivot and looking to confirm. I'd like to see an additional 10-points due to INDU's larger price scale.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:31:27 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Raise stop to 521.75. Since I don't want to hold this position overnight, I'm going to start placing stops under the previous 3-minute low, following the OEX up. Feel free to place stops anywhere that seems appropriate for your trading style.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:30:59 PM
QQQ $35.73 +1.88% .... has made its way above WEEKLY Pivot here. Quick check of the 60-minute chart shows MACD just now getting above zero level. An I mean juuuuuuust above.

Earlier today I made note of the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) on 5-minute chart backtesting and finding some support at the WEEKLY Pivot after moving above. Lets take that forward to the QQQ into the close. Especially just after the bond market closes at 03:00 PM EST.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  2:29:55 PM
We're finally seeing some bullish action in OI call play Apache (APA). The stock has been consolidating under the 70.50 level and we're seeing new relative highs today. A move over 70.75 to 71.00 would be even more encouraging. The stock's MACD on its daily chart has finally produced a bullish buy signal. This could be an entry point.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/12/20,  2:28:50 PM
Also out at 8:30ET tomorrow is the September Trade Deficit. Last month the trade deficit fell because imports fell further than exports. Prior numbers are (in billions Exports, Imports, Deficit): June 84.5, 124.5, -40
July 86,126, -40
August 83.7,122.9, -39.2
Consensus is for the deficit to grow again to -40.5.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:25:18 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $28.03 +1.41% .... as I monitor Level II, I sense there is some type of crossing of a rather large order taking place right now.

See the small bid/ask? But steady stream of ticks taking place.

Stock could sit here for rest of session, or make a sharp move into close from this level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:23:31 PM
Remember that possible inverse H&S on the OEX 60-minute chart that I've mentioned several times lately? I mentioned that it might be falling back to form a second right shoulder. Take a look: Link Remember, though, that although inverse H&S's are sometimes continuation patterns, you can't assume that this one is going to be confirmed until that neckline is crossed. In fact, I would wait for a close (at least 30-minutes, if not hourly) above that neckline before I would consider it confirmed. If a neckline level rejects higher prices, bullish hopes are dashed and price usually moves down quickly.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:19:34 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $28.03 +1.41% .... just sitting here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:15:04 PM
Dow Jones Transports (TRAN) 2,937 +0.33% ... stuck in neutral for the most part.

Quick look at 60-minute chart interval shows its MACD trying to round out flat below zero, Stochastics are overbought, so my thinking is it is going to take a TRAN trade above 2,950 on this time interval to have the transports leaving the dock.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:14:57 PM
Swing Trade Signals
The OEX is perhaps making another run at 522.60. Once above that level, it's moving into a former congestion band and gains may be slow.

F.Y.I., I will be "out of the office" tomorrow morning, probably until about midday, so will want to close this trade this afternoon so that I don't leave an open trade untended. I'll let you know what I'm seeing as we get nearer the close so you can make your own decisions about individual positions. Remember that until the OEX pushes above the recent highs, it's just remaining within a trading range from about 516.70-525.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:14:00 PM
Dow Industrials (INDU) 9,810.69 .... WEEKLY Pivot matrix notes here have the INDU the only equity index in our WEEKLY pivot matrix to have not seen a trade at its WEEKLY Pivot (9,828.80).

A sign of further strength building would be for the INDU to get the trade at the WEEKLY Pivot, maybe a nice BIG buy program (have seel lots of little ones).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  2:04:29 PM
The OEX two-minute chart shows a possible H&S, neckline just a touch below 522, downside target if the neckline is broken at about 521.40. These are not tradable patterns, but can help us gauge strength or weakness. If the pattern is confirmed, that's a first sign of short-term weakness. If the downside target is met, that's another.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  2:02:33 PM
QQQ $35.58 +1.48% ... can really see here how trade at WEEKLY Pivot has found QQQ stopping rather dead in its tracks. Day trade bull most likely pulls the plug here on bullish trade, looks for pullback to $35.35.

Will also note that session high of $35.68 comes close to BLUE #6 from 5-MRT at $35.67.

See 12:20:39 comments for day trader thoughts.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/12/20,  1:55:49 PM
Also at 8:30 we have October Import and Export Prices. Last month import prices fell 0.5%, the first decline since May and export prices rose 0.4%. Prior numbers are (Import prices, Export Prices);
August 96.8, 99.4
September 96.3, 99.8
Could not find consensus numbers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  1:55:06 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $28.01 +1.33% .... mentioned earlier today about a day trade long on pullback to $28.05.

Let's keep close eye on TRMB here, see if it will firm up at $27.94 (BLUE #1).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:48:54 PM
Keltner band support keeps following the current OEX prices higher, with support now layered from the current position down to 521.75, and then down again at 521 and 520.25. While the OEX has been rising to new daily highs, though, five-minute MACD has been sloping down. That's a danger signal if that continues. Five-minute 5(3)3 stochastics have been cycling down while price consolidates, though, with that bullish action balancing the bearish divergence on the MACD. On the 30-minute and 60-minute charts, stochastics have moved into territory indicating overbought conditions, but they haven't yet shown an inclination to turn down. On the 30-minute chart, ADX moves above 20, perhaps signaling that sell signals can't be trusted when 30-minute stochs turn down again. As has been true all day, a mixture of bullish and bearish indications can be found and we have to let price action guide us. We're in a fairly good position now, with a stop set just below our entry and ready to participate if the OEX should climb on short covering into the close.

 
 
  Keene Little   11/12/20,  1:48:53 PM
Congratulations Linda. Can you write a book on market comprehension?

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:48:18 PM
Afternoon Sector Leaders:
________________________

XAU gold & silver index: +4.02%
DDX disk drives index: +3.5%
GHA hardware index: +2.99%
SOX semiconductors: +2.27%

BTK biotech index: +2.56%

Also strong are Airlines, Hombuilders, Software.

Afternoon Sector Losers:
________________________

UTY utility index: -0.12%

The UTY is the ONLY index other than the volatility indices in the red.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  1:47:48 PM
Speaking of wordsmiths today everyone probably does not know this but Linda is an author by trade and actually writes real books. She has written (and had published) young adult novels in both the U.S. and Germany, reading comprehension workbooks, and educational and inspirational fiction and nonfiction. She can be found on Amazon under Linda Piazza and her pen name of L.D. Pierce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:46:03 PM
1:45pm EXPLOSIONS HEARD NEAR BAGHDAD, IRAQ - AP

Glad they specified- wasn't sure if it was Baghdad, North Carolina or Badhdad, Iraq...

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:42:42 PM
If you haven't heard by now Dell Computer (DELL), oops sorry, they're just called DELL now, DELL will be announcing earnings after the closing bell tomorrow.

Markets tend to price stocks to perfection but none seem to be held as close to the spotlight as DELL. Net income should be 26 cents/share, up 24 percent from a year ago. Analysts are looking for Q3 sales to hit $10.5 billion, up 15 percent.

Currently DELL is up more than 50% from its February 2003 lows and trading near 3-year highs.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/12/20,  1:40:51 PM
Tomorrow we have a host of economic reports coming out. I do see the MBA Mortgage Applications Survey coming out tomorrow at 7:00ET instead of today, just like Jonathan mentioned. Since I did the review yesterday I will not repeat it here. So the first mine field we will have to navigate (if trading in off hours that is) is the weekly Jobless Claims 8:30ET release. Although Jobless claims fall last week to 348K, the October 25th number was revised upward by 5K. Prior numbers are (claims, weekly change):
October 18th 391K, 1K
October 25 391K, 0K
November 1st 348K, -43K
Consensus is for a rise to 364K.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:35:55 PM
I mentioned earlier today that OEX 522.60 was likely to be tough resistance, and it's been so today, but now it's being challenged. Conservative traders should consider raising their stops to breakeven, if you have not already done so, because this test may be one of the more important we see this afternoon.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:33:08 PM
Contributing to the 3 percent gain in the hardware sector (GHA.X) is Lexmark Intl (LXK). LXK was upgraded from "neutral" to a "buy" from UBS this morning who raised their price target from $80 to $88.

Shares of LXK broke out above resistance at $75.00 on the upgrade but is now approaching steep resistance near the $77.50 level where it failed multiple times from May through July of this year. LXK is up 4.9% to $76.56.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/12/20,  1:29:00 PM
From the "And the Beat Goes On" Column - John Youngdahl, former Goldman Sachs (GS) economist has plead guilty to federal criminal charges for trading on insider information in 2001 when the Treasury Department was planning to stop selling 30-year bonds.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:27:36 PM
Looking for that one-of-a-kind Christmas gift?

A Reuters article states that the foul ball from the Cubs-Marlin game 6 fiasco will be appearing on the auction block. Bidding begins Dec. 1st and ends Dec. 18th. Starting bid is $5,000.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:26:05 PM
Lucky for us we don't pay you by the word! *grin*

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  1:25:10 PM
I calculated recently that I write something close to two million words of commentary per year but my brain just does not produce the wordsmith phrases that Jonathan has been exhibiting lately. It has to be his lawyer background that stimulates his recent elucidation of the facts.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:21:33 PM
Just perusing some of the business headlines...Clothing company Warnaco Group Inc has just signed a licensing agreement to produce lingerie under the brand "JLO by Jennifer Lopez".

That seems a little misleading. Does JLO even wear lingerie? You wouldn't know it from those skimpy dresses at the academy awards.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:19:40 PM
Jane, I agree with your concerns today. (See Jane's 13:14 comment on the futures side of the Monitor.) I'm not convinced of how much bullish upside exists, either, and share the concerns many of you have voiced. I have been harping so long on the importance of the 520.80-521 S/R resistance level that I thought I ought at least try to trade what I see, no matter how scary. Fortunately, I've now moved our stop up close to our entry, so feel a little safer.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:17:03 PM
VXO is down to 17.29, in a sudden eruption of complacency.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:14:55 PM
To clear up the H&S comment on EBAY, here is a chart: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:14:19 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's raise our stop to 520.75. Our bullish entry was predicated on the move above 520.80-521 S/R, so let's base our exit on that level, too. The extra $0.75 isn't going to save us a lot of money, but it will save some, and I'm basing this exit on our reasoning for entry.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  1:14:02 PM
Recent buy program premium alert lifts the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) to session high of 331.00

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  1:14:01 PM
HUI is at its session high, now up 10.63 at 219.54.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  1:03:38 PM
The OEX is breaking above the bull flag, but I would not consider that upside breakout confirmed until it moves to a new day's high. We've seen false breakouts before, especially during this time of day.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  1:02:30 PM
Looking for a little excitement? Check out PC Mall Inc (MALL). The direct marketer of computer hardware, software and accessories is known for its various color catalogs and websites (PC Mall, MacMall, ClubMac, PC Mall Gov, eCost.com and now OnSales.com).

Five months ago this stock was trading under $4.00. It had surged to $11 by early October and then drifted back toward the $8.25 level. Now the stock is really surging again and on huge volume (for this stock). Shares are trading above $13.50 after an analyst stepped forward on Nov. 10th to stock a $24 price target on it. The stock received a second "buy" rating this morning.

The stock is extremely overbought now. Short interest was not very big as of October 8th but there are only 8.2 million shares in float. Average volume is normally about 76K a day and the last few days have seen volume in the 400K to 500K range. I'm not suggesting any trades but we can still watch the fireworks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:55:41 PM
Trying to find a stock for a good latter-half of day day trade long but having a hard time coming up with something.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  12:54:52 PM
Gold and silver are holding their subsantial gains today, with ten year bonds at their session high currently, up 4.9 bps. Equities are strong for the time being, with the US Dollar Index the main loser today. The fed added substantial sums today, and it looks like the old setup from the March lows, with the Fed pumping in dollars, lowering their price while the recipients of those dollars bid every other asset class higher.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  12:51:23 PM
It is interesting to note that EBAY is not bouncing (much) higher with the rest of the market. The NASDAQ is up 1.25%, the INX internet index is up 1.62% but EBAY is up just 18 cents or 0.34%.

Monday shares of the Internet auction site broke through its simple 50-dma as well as the $55 level. Currently, the stock is trying to hold minor support at $54. The chart appears to be painting a H&S pattern that began from the September low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:50:28 PM
The current OEX five-minute pattern looks like a typical bull flag pullback, but if it is, it should not retrace more than 50% of the flagpole rise that preceded it. That midpoint is at about 521, depending on which five-minute candles you consider the bottom of that flagpole.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  12:45:13 PM
We are seeing a bounce in shares of JetBlue Airways (JBLU) but given the recent declines that shouldn't be a surprise. Investors in JBLU may begin thinking that this discount airfare space is getting crowded. We're starting to see more headlines for Delta's "Song" airlines and United will be launching its own low cost carrier, labeled "Ted", on Nov. 18th at its Denver hub.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  12:35:51 PM
Gapping lower this morning are shares of Jefferson Pilot (JP), the insurance company. The drop was sparked by Deutsche Bank downgrading JP to a "sell". If you're not inclined to believe these broker ratings then bulls may want to keep an eye on this one for an entry point. Shares of JP have been in a very predictable rising channel since mid March (2003). The bottom of this channel is near $46, which happens to be old resistance from October and bolstered by its simple 50-dma. Remember old resistance typically becomes new support. The key to any bullish trade in JP may be patience as shares move slowly and may be inappropriate for short-term options. The stock is currently nearing $46.50.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:35:02 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 330.67 +0.21% ... 5-minute chart interval starting to show a little more support firming at WEEKLY Pivot of 330.46 in last hour. Major Index Bulls would like to see the BIX.X make a session high and move above 331.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:33:48 PM
The OEX should have some support near our entry and then again at 520.80-521, with support also just beneath that at 520.60. I'm not going to raise our official stop during the lunch doldrums, but conservative traders might elect to set personal stops closer to one of those levels, perhaps either at breakeven or else down near 520.50. I'm nervous in this position, and you should be, too, but on my part that's just due to a bias that the OEX might not have much upside today and not necesarily due to what I'm seeing on the charts. The 30-minute MACD now looks strong. The OEX has climbed above the 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's. Several other oscillators do show a disturbing tendency to hook down, though, including RSI.

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  12:28:04 PM
Adding its strength to the gains in the SOX is Texas Instruments (TXN), which was started with a "buy" this morning by A.G.Edwards. TXN is up 1.85% and back over the $30 mark. Despite the rebound the stock looks very extended and its daily oscillators look bearish while its weekly oscillators are stuck in overbought mode.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:25:07 PM
PETsMart (PETM) $27.41 +3.31% .... (Per James' 12:22:14) ... OK, I just slapped a 5-MRT on PETM and see it trades right at BLUE #2. Would want to see intra-day strength above $27.50 to get me really interested, otherwise look for little pullback to $27.07.

Will also note PETM has exceeded its PnF chart's bullish vertical count of $24.00. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/12/20,  12:22:14 PM
Breaking out to a new high is PETsMart (PETM). The stock has been consolidating sideways in a very tight range for a month and is now surging higher. Shares tend to move higher in $4.00 sprints so interested traders might be able to catch a run to $30.00.

Earnings are expected on Nov. 20th, estimates are 20 cents a share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  12:20:39 PM
QQQ $35.53 +1.34% ... here's a 60-minute chart interval, more appropriate for swing trader, but some things I see and how bullish scenario needs to unwind. Link

Day trade bull may look to try and sell strength just under WEEKLY Pivot, get a gain under belt, then take a shot on pullback bullish entry of $35.41, hold overnight and see what happens with AMAT, using any of today's potential profits booked, as risk capital over AMAT earnings and economic reports.

If I have once concern going into the close, it would be the dollar's weakness and Japan's reaction to that weakness, which would then put greater emphasis on economic numbers here in the U.S.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:20:08 PM
OEX 522.60 is likely to be tough resistance, too, probably corresponding to Dow 9820. We won't be safe until over that level, and then there's the 523.50-524 zone to watch next. Until proven otherwise (move above 525, daily oscillators turning up), I consider the current bullish play to be a countertrend play, so want to be particularly vigilant. There's just a chance that it could be proven not to be a countertrend trade, though, so I thought we needed to take the chance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  12:12:30 PM
The VXO has dropped .67 to 17.33, p/c ratio neutral at .67.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  12:05:44 PM
GE printing a high of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:05:41 PM
We should probably expect a retracement down to test broken resistance near our entry level. Any lower than that, and I'm going to get worried.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  12:00:54 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Raise the stop to 520.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:59:15 AM
I agree with the caution Jane and Keene are expressing about bullish positions (on the futures side of the Monitor), but unfortunately have to play what I'm seeing. I'm sure going to be ratcheting up our stop quickly, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:54:44 AM
We're going to be extra vigilant with this OEX bullish play. Next support is now at the key 520.80-521 level, although that support is layered all the way down to 520.60, the area of the last three-minute consolidation and the 50% retracement of the flagpole rise that immediately preceded the current consolidation just above 521.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:51:32 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We have entered a bullish OEX trade at 521.29. Stop at 519.00. Target 525.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:50:18 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Time to plunge in, like it or not. Enter a bullish trade here. Stop at 519.00. Target 525.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  11:46:53 AM
QQQ $35.42 +1% ... session high here. This looks like bullish intra-day break higher. Will note BLUE #3 of $35.41 and our WEEKLY 61.8% pivot retracement of $35.41 have just been broken to the upside.

When looking at 60-minute interval chart (more of a swing trader's chart) will note MACD is below the zero level, but now shows a bullish crossover above Signal. Eyeballing the QQQ on this timeframe looks to have QQQ at its WEEKLY Pivot of $35.65 as MACD approaches zero level.

From there, its probably AMAT's earnings that have impact on tomorrow's trade.

While there isn't a bank in the bunch, my 60-minute thoughts on QQQ comes from what the BIX.X is doing. See how MACD now approaches zero level after bullish crossover, with BIX.X at WEEKLY Pivot? Need the BIX.X to get a move on here as it looks like the major indices are trying to follow its lead in the WEEKLY matrix.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:44:58 AM
All day yesterday, I kept asking myself what I was waiting for before entering a bearish trade. After all, the OEX had small-bodied candles lining up just underneath the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, threatening to break to the downside. It was seemingly an ideal bearish entry and I couldn't bring myself to take it on such a low-volume day. I was waiting for today and for a possible pop this morning. Now, I see small-bodied candles lined up above the 60-minute 100/130-pma's and I'm asking myself again why I'm waiting. I'm waiting because there's no volume confirmation of this push upwards and because 520.80-521 still appears to be difficult.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:38:41 AM
The OEX had set up a symmetrical triangle on the 3-minute chart, with such triangles using breaking in the direction the prices had been heading before the consolidation pattern formed. That was up, and the OEX has indeed broken to the upside. I would wait for a move through 521 as confirmation of this upside break. We may have to consider a bullish play here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:32:08 AM
HUI is now up 9.28 at 218.19, XAU +3.21, Dec gold up 8.10 at 396.30.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:31:44 AM
Time for a little micromanaging, since there's nothing else to do. The OEX 30-minute chart shows a row of small-bodied candles lining up just above the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, each of those candles sporting an upper shadow. That shows me indecision about that pop above those keys levels. 30-minute momentum has been flat all day and may be turning down while RSI still hooks up. They're usually the first to signal a change, so there's some indecision signaled there, too. (To heighten that indecision, the two switched while I was typing, RSI flattening and momentum hooking up.) The 30-minute MACD histogram is positive with the MACD lines just now pushing above the signal line, but perhaps showing a light hint of flattening as they do so. I find that this is a difficult place at which to judge MACD action because what looks so bullish on the surface (pushing above that signal line) often results in a turn down at that line. If it weren't for those bullish volume patterns, I would still be considering a bearish play right here, with a tight stop, but those volume patterns keep holding me back. Those volume patterns could be signaling a move higher. If the 30-minute MACD lines make a bearish cross, though . . .

We still have to consider what happens if the OEX pushes higher, too, but I sure want to see volume levels pick up before entering a bullish play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:17:49 AM
Unless that was a bad tick, there was just a higher OEX high with the OEX then immediately knocked back from just below 521.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  11:13:33 AM
I'm watching the OEX today on a three-minute chart rather than a five-minute chart, as the three-minute oscillators appear to match the ups and downs of the OEX a little better. The three-minute 21(3)3 stochastics turned up as the OEX did a few minutes ago, for example. There was no bullish divergence on those three-minute stochastics as both price and stochastics hit a higher low. Now I'm watching to see if this bounce achieves a higher price high or a lower price high, with a lower three-minute high being a first sign that momentum has eased. Another sign can be found on the 30-minute chart, where the momentum indicator has been flat all day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  11:03:30 AM
And yet people keep buying the stock... I prefer to bank my savings in things that others cannot create virtually for free at will, but that's my personal bias talking.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/12/20,  11:00:44 AM
Nice to know Bill is not going to run out of money anytime soon. With well over one billion shares left he could sell five million a month for the next 20 years and still have some left.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:55:38 AM
MSFT still sitting on its day lows. Here's something for MSFT bulls to consider: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:53:16 AM
S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 330.26 +0.09% .... session high of 330.95 did see trade above the BIX.X WEEKLY Pivot, making BIX.X the only equity sector in our WEEKLY pivot matrix to see a trade today at or above WEEKLY Pivot. However, if we were looking for some leadership in the WEEKLY pivot, it would have been from the banks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:50:07 AM
To feel better about entering a bullish play, here's my wish list: I wish to see the OEX pull back into a measured accumulation pattern such as a flag, with that flag retracing less than 50% of the flagpole rise that preceded it, from yesterday afternoon's low to today's high, with that midpoint being just below 519. I would then want to see volume pick up as the OEX bounced.

The strongly positive volume patterns keep me from considering a bearish play here, as I would like to do, even though that volume is light. If I see 30-minute and 60-minute stochastics or RSI beginning to turn down, I might consider a bearish play even then.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:49:59 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,049.72 +0.3% .... session high has been 1,050.88 and that's right at today's DAILY S2.

While this may mark the upper end of a daily range, if SPX can hold above DAILY Pivot, then should have daily pivots moving higher for Thursday, which could lend to bullish trade into Thursday and Friday's economic numbers.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:49:39 AM
MSFT at its low of the day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:43:55 AM
P/c ratio down to .59, at the low end of neutral.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:43:20 AM
Steady as she goes for metals, with the CRB at new 52 week highs above 252, with Dec gold up 3.50 at 381.70, silver +.173 at 524, and the HUI now up 5.15 at 214.06.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:39:19 AM
In contrast to the 30-minute and 60-minute charts, the OEX daily 5(3)3 stochastics now approach levels indicating oversold conditions. They haven't yet turned up, however. It's possible that we could see those intraday stochastics working against the daily ones but the longer-term 21(3)3 daily stochastics are just now rolling down out of territory indicating overbought conditions. Anyone who was ever tried to trade when indicators are mixed across various time frames knows what to expect if that happens: chop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:37:40 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 330.79 +0.26% .... for bulls, I think BIX.X 330.00 needs to find pullback support (if the banks pull back intra-day) where on 5-minute bars, you can see all the SMA's converging. I like to look for converging of 21,50,200 SMA's as a point of confluence to represent a point of equilibrum, where some meaningful moves can take place if tested.

Not just intra-day, but on daily interval bar charts as well.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:36:02 AM
This is one of those days when we're going to say "of course" at the end of the day. Of course that OEX move back above its 60-minute 100/130-pma's was a screaming signal for a long. Of course, that touch of 521 was a screaming signal to go short ahead of a turnaround. Unfortunately, I don't know which "of course" is going to be right and I have to wait for price action to tell me. The 30-minute and 60-minute 5(3)3 stochastics have now zoomed from oversold to overbought, something I wanted to see happen before I trusted that there could be much more downside. They can trend in overbought for quite some time, but the low ADX level suggests that we can trust the sell signals they would give if they were to turn down. So far, they haven't done that, but still show more upside possible. Perhaps not that much upside, however.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:32:18 AM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $28.39 +2.71% .... Day trade bullish profile on pullback to $28.05, stop $27.75, target $29.00

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:26:01 AM
I'm just not feeling comfortable with the current rise because of the light volume but also because of the shape that rise is taking. Its shape is an unsustainable vertical rise off yesterday's low. The OEX can continue that vertical rise for quite a while, perhaps even for four or five profitable points if we were in a bullish play, but I'm worried. Of course, if there are any shorts left in the market, they probably are, too, and they could propel the market higher. This just looks like too much like the pop-and-drop type of early-morning move we sometimes see for me to feel comfortable jumping in with a long play. Perhaps I'm missing the best play of the week, but . . .

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:20:50 AM
QQQ $35.37 +0.88% ... Bullish profile in QQQ here at $35.38, stop $34.95, target $36.15

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:19:35 AM
QQQ $35.38 .... stopped on bearish profile from $35.20.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:18:06 AM
Someone is letting someone else take the risk for them. As of a few minutes ago, volume was a light 122 million on the NYSE and 283 million on the Nasdaq. Some are obviously standing aside while others run up the markets, with those cautious traders and institutions waiting to see if the gains will hold. This doesn't encourage me to jump in with a bullish play. Unless volume picks up, I may stand aside even if the OEX should break above 521.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:13:35 AM
I halfway expected a small white candle today just below the midline of the rising regression channel on the daily OEX chart or perhaps a small candle that straddled that midline, with a top at 521. For that reason and because 520.80-521 has been so important in the past, I was reluctant to enter bullish ahead of a break through that level. I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX turn down from here, either, a second scenario I contemplated, but the bullish volume patterns so far have kept me from betting on that with a bearish entry against the current short-term trend. I'm not certain enough that the 520.80-521 level will hold to risk that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:13:11 AM
December Gold futures (gc03z) 392.00 +0.85% ... while I'm 30-minute delayed on futures, I had alert set here as gold challenges any resemblence of a downward trend from the 09/25/03 high of $394.80 here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  10:09:36 AM
QQQ $35.31 +0.72% .... just sitting here at today's BLUE #2 ($35.35) on 5-MRT.

I don't like to fudge stops, but giving a penny above yesterday's lowering of a stop to $35.37 makes sense based on what I see. Will concede the trade though if I can get pullback to $35.15.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:06:07 AM
OEX 520.80-521 is also a key level, as it represents strong historical S/R. We might be using any break through that level as a bullish entry signal. I just want to see how the oscillators look as the OEX approaches either of those key levels rather than issuing a blanket bearish or bullish entry. A few weeks ago, I specialized in entering bullish at the top of the day's move and entering bearish at the bottom, and I don't want to repeat that performance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  10:03:27 AM
Opening put to rcall ratio neutral at .63.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  10:02:44 AM
Swing Trade Signals
For a lot of reasons, OEX 518.50 now looks key. It's just below the 50% retracement of the rally off yesterday's late-day low. It's just below the bottom of this morning's gap. It's also just below the 60-minute 130-pma, the lowest of the 30-minute and 60-minute 100/130-pma's. Bulls do not want to see the OEX move below that level and we may be using any break of that level as a bearish entry.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:57:21 AM
The earliest volume patterns were positive. If I had instead discovered negative volume patterns, I might have considered entering an OEX bearish play here on hopes of a rollover, with a tight stop at 521.25, but those positive volume patterns will now have me standing aside, watching for a rollover beneath those key averages we've been watching again or a pop above 520.80-521 resistance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:57:04 AM
QQQ $34.35 +0.82% .... did trade $35.37, will stop at $35.38 for those not using a hard stop, but now look to cover position on any slippage back to $35.15.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:51:59 AM
The OEX now closes in on the 520 upside target predicted by its 3-minute inverse H&S.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:50:57 AM
The Fed had 5B expiring and has just added 8B, for a net 3B gain. Looks like the boyz are back in town...

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:45:46 AM
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) 520.69 +1.35% .... strong out of the gate.

Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 212.5 +1.7% and Homebuilders (DJUSHB) 566.56 +1.41% are precentage gainers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:45:29 AM
The OEX butts up against significant resistance at its current level, too. Five-minute Keltner channels show that a push above this level might predict an eventual climb to 521.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:43:43 AM
Dow Trans (TRAN) 2,931 +0.15% .... holding steady after pullback to our 80.9% retracement of 2,925 yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:42:21 AM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 329.50 -0.13% ... fractional weakness in early going.

QQQ $35.15 +0.28% .... will hang in with QQQ short here. BLUE #2 from 5-MRT today is $35.35.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:41:50 AM
Dec gold is currently up 3.90 at a session high of 392.10, HUI up 3.08 at 211.99, XAU +1.42 at 97.90. Ten year bonds are also at session's high, up 4.1 bps.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:41:33 AM
This morning's gap carried the OEX above the neckline of an inverse H&S as seen on its 3-minute chart. The upside target on that inverse H&S would be at about 520. That's not a tradable target, of course, but we can watch to see if that upside target is met as another gauge of short-term strength or weakness. The OEX appears to be retesting the neckline now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:39:39 AM
MSFT is printing a low of the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:38:51 AM
The OEX now tests this morning's gap. It's natural to see a retracement to test the gap. A retracement that moves no lower than the midpoint of the gap before a bounce shows strength. A retracement that moves lower shows weakness, although gap support might also be found at the bottom of the gap.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:34:17 AM
During the first five minutes of trade, the OEX traded a high of 519.32 and a low of 518.92, with the midpoint of that range at 519.12. The OEX currently trades below that midpoint, showing early weakness, but we've also got a gap to watch for possible gap support this morning. Let's watch the first retracement that generally begins in a few minutes, seeing how the OEX behaves in relationship to the midpoint of its first five-minute range and also in relationship to that gap.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:30:42 AM
The OEX now tests its 60-minute 100-pma at 519.07, with the 60-minute 21-pma slanting down just above, at 519.87.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:27:26 AM
QQQ $35.06 .... higher at $35.16 ahead of the opening bell.

Will continue to hold short yesterday's profiled bearish trade from $35.20, with stop just above yesterday's high at $35.37.

May look to fine tune things once we get a 5-MRT

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  9:21:42 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  9:21:00 AM
No MBA mortgage data yet today- I suspect that it will be delayed by a day due to yesterday's holiday, but we'll see.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  9:18:17 AM
Futures are up slightly, so the OEX challenge of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's may continue this morning. Since those pma's and their 30-minute counterparts lie just overhead, layered with historical S/R up to 520.80-521, I'm going to stand aside and watch the action this morning rather than enter a bullish play. If the OEX clears 521, we'll be watching volume patterns and other intermarket relationships to tell us whether we should be considering a bullish play. We'll also be looking for an opportunity to enter a bearish play on a rollover. I'm trying to keep open eyes about all possibilities, but some daily oscillators say that the prevailing trend remains down, so am a little more leery of an upside play just now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/12/20,  8:45:34 AM
The US Dollar Index isn't recovering, and Dec gold is up to 390.80. Futures and bonds still in the green.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/12/20,  7:27:50 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei eked out a 19.18 point gain in Wednesday’s trading. Although it closed more than 100 points below its day’s high, it managed that 0.19% gain to close at 10,226.22. Many factors helped the Nikkei to steady, including the release of information that foreign investors had been net buyers in the Nikkei during October. In addition, Japan’s September current-account surplus rose 38% from the year-ago level, with the merchandise trade surplus rising 8.7%. Also helping was the close of forex markets in New York yesterday due to the holiday, helping to steady the dollar vs. the yen. In addition, NTT reported first-half net profits that were 11 times higher than those of the year-ago period, sending telecom-related stocks higher. Those higher telecom-related stocks were credited by some with the positive close. Many other techs declined.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted lost 0.65%, but South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.08%. Singapore’s Straits Times also gained 1.08%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.27%. China’s Shanghai Composite lost 1.92%.

European stocks are also mixed, with the CAC 40 and the DAX currently trading near their day’s lows. French industrial production rose in September by 0.4% after having having declined 0.6% in August. After a revaluation of its securities and investment portfolio, Germany’s Commerzbank wrote off $2.65 billion. It planned an offering of 53.5 million shares. Although it also posed a gain in operating income, the news sent Commerzbank and other German banking shares lower. Airliner Deutsche Lufthansa missed estimates and also dropped in early trading. Elsewhere in Europe, Nokia received an upgrade, and was trading higher, as was Royal Ahold after its own upgrade.

Currently, the FTSE 100 has gained 6.30 points or 0.14%, to trade at 4351.40. The CAC 40 has lost 6.85 points or 0.20%, to trade at 3399.20. The DAX has lost 21.85 points or 0.59%, to trade at 3708.02.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/11/20,  1:02:37 AM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/11/20,  1:02:25 AM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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