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  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  6:37:02 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  5:01:35 PM
Kohls (KSS) $50.58 -0.25% Link .... lower at $49.70 after reporting Q3 EPS of $0.35 per share, which was inline with revised lower consensus of $0.35. KSS said revenues rose 11.7% year-over-year to $2.39 billion, compared to consensus of $2.45 billion.

There is "no way" this stock will ever trade $57 again. However... if it does, buy the heck out of it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  3:57:25 PM
Retail Sales due out tomorrow. Something a trader thinks about ahead of those numbers is that it has now been widely reported that recent weather patterns have been abnormally warm, and in the retail industry, that isn't good for getting shoppers to the stores/malls.

So... it would be my thinking that regardless of what economists are estimating, most investors/traders are going to look at the retail numbers and give them a little slack as if to think the ex-auto's numbers aren't that telling on the consumer, but greater focus will probably be given to the include autos numbers.

Current economists' forecast....

October total retail sales -0.2%

October retail sales ex-auto +0.2%

So.... my thinking per above is autos forecasted to decline 0.4%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  3:51:58 PM
Buy/Sell Program Premium Alerts ... Jeff Could you direct me to something that explains this subject and where do you get the info from?

Thanks

Arnaldo

Yes... in the Ask the Analyst column 12/15/2002 at this Link and then you may also want to read the upcoming article in this weekend's Ask the Analyst column as another trader's question is addressed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  3:51:21 PM
Now I know how the humiliation will come. Earlier I mentioned that the markets tend to get pegged just above strong support or below strong resistance before important earnings or economic news, and speculated that the OEX might end the day pinned just above 520.80-521 support or just under 524 resistance. It's instead ending up near the middle, it appears, and my speculation was wrong.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  3:34:04 PM
Well, this market is making me look brilliant, for a few minutes, so it must be time for it to slap me down soon. I didn't want to enter bearish because I was afraid of a bounce and the bounce occurred. Just before the OEX shoots up again and then gets knocked down, I say I don't want to go long because the OEX is just rattling around like a seed in a gourd. Now I'm waiting for the big humiliation, because it's surely coming. Perhaps in the form of a climb above 525?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  3:23:47 PM
I'm hearing that DELL guided $11.5B v $11.2B est.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  3:23:13 PM
DELL .26 v .26e

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  3:21:39 PM
Sell program premium alert ... SPX = 1,057.37

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  3:21:06 PM
Buy program premium alter .... SPX = 1,058.12

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  3:20:42 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 333.08 +0.28% ... upside alert here at WEEKLY R1.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  3:18:58 PM
It's a good thing we didn't enter a bearish play on the breakdown out of that bear flag, right? Although I complained about not being able to enter, I was afraid the OEX might bounce from 520.80-521, and it did. While I'm happy when plays perform well, I'm even happier when I've resisted jumping into a play that turns out to be a bad one. Because I'm just not convinced as yet how much higher the OEX might go, I'm also standing aside from that possible bullish play this late on a Thursday afternoon ahead of important economic numbers the next morning. Right now, the OEX just seems to be a seed rolling from one side of a dried gourd to the other.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  3:13:35 PM
The OEX came back down to retest the confirmation level of the five-minute double-bottom pattern, to see whether it really meant to move above it. So far, it's deciding that it really did.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  3:06:55 PM
QQQ $35.80 .... stopped in DAY TRADE BEARISH from $35.70.

I have seen enough to know I've seen too much. That's it for me today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  3:05:31 PM
OEX 522.88 was the confirmation level for the double-bottom formation. That's just above the 50% retracement of the decline from yesterday's high to this morning's low. The OEX has climbed just above that confirmation level, but now pauses. (Note: it began moving up again as I typed.)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  3:02:26 PM
QQQ $35.74 -0.19% .... ooooo that was close at $35.79. 5-minute bar chart has Stochastics "overbought," but 60-minute Stoch's "oversold"

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  3:02:18 PM
Perhaps the OEX will get maneuvered up near 524 instead of down toward 520.80? It's just completed a double-bottom formation on the five-minute chart with an upside target near yesterday's highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:59:58 PM
Bond market closes with strong buying in Treasuries today. 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) fell 14.1 bp to 4.271%.

Benchmarking .... INDU = 9,842, SPX = 1,054.74, OEX = 522.8, NDX = 1,436, QQQ = $35.72, RUT.X = 549.98, BIX.X = 332.65, TRAN = 2,951

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:55:29 PM
Drug Index (DRG.X) 322.50 +3.18% ... strong move and its has been broad. I have not been watching the news wires this morning.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/13/20,  2:53:19 PM
Then last but certainly not least is the 9:45ET release of the November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Prior numbers are:
August 89.3
September 87.7
October 89.6
Consensus is for a jump to 91.3

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:51:18 PM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,950 -0.10% ... right back at round number 2,950.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:50:02 PM
QQQ $35.71 -0.27% .... Day trade stop firmly in place at $35.80.

Not sure how this is going to play out.... bond market closes in 8 minutes, and most likely dictates trade from there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  2:49:14 PM
Donchian channel update: Yesterday, a bullish breakout signal occurred at the close of the 11:30 candle, at 521.44. That play would still be open according to one type of exit signal (2-point close beneath the previous close, maximum 4-point loss), but would have been closed at 10:30 this morning at 521.25 using the other type of exit signal (close beneath a shorter-term Donchian channel). At the time the entry signal was given, 21(3)3 stochastics were already at levels indicating overbought conditions, a parameter sometimes associated with successful bullish breakout signals, and ADX was below 18, a parameter also sometimes associated with successful signals. While the $0.19 loss predicated on one type of exit could not be deemed successful, we'll have to see how and when the other type of exit is triggered to determine whether that play would have been. Who knows? If the OEX does zoom to new highs, confirming the continuation inverse H&S seen on its 60-minute chart, that hypothetical play might yet be successful. I'm not counting on that happening, but am watching how this hypothetical play would have unfolded.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/13/20,  2:47:53 PM
You mean to say that last jump was not a buy program Jeff?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:46:57 PM
Awaiting the first buy program premium alert any minute now.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/13/20,  2:46:37 PM
At 9:15ET we have October's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. This report is important because industrial production is responsible for a large share of the national output and can provide insight into the current state of the economy. Also, capacity utilization provides a valuable measure of available slack in the economy. Prior numbers for IP (% change from prior month) and CU are:
July 0.8%, 74.6%
August -0.1%, 74.5%
September 0.4%, 74.8%
Consensus is for 0.4%, 75%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:45:34 PM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6029.15 +0.16% ... session highs here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:44:44 PM
QQQ $35.70 .... bond market closes in 13 minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:38:43 PM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 332.26 +0.03% .... a little "trading places" with the Brokers (XBD.X) 657.67 -0.08%.

You can see the impact as the SPX has made a higher low on the session, while the NDX/QQQ made matching lows.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/13/20,  2:36:22 PM
Also at 8:30ET is October Retail Sales, an indicator of lesser importance to financial markets, except during the holiday season when the market reaction to retail sales reports can be more substantial. Prior numbers for Retail and Food services and ex-auto are (% change from prior month):
July 1.4%, 1.2%
August 1.2%, 1.2%
September -0.2%, 0.3%
Consensus is for -0.2%, 0.2%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  2:36:05 PM
Lately, there's been a tendency to maneuver the markets just above key support or just below key resistance ahead of the release of important economic or earnings numbers. I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX maneuvered just above 520-521 and held close to that level ahead of tomorrow morning's economic numbers, perhaps with a false breakout one direction or the other to enliven the afternoon. By the same token, I wouldn't be surprised to see the OEX driven up to 523.50-524 and held there into the close, although I think the first option has a greater probability.

Taking a look at the nested Keltner channels, I notice that the three channels I use are coming into equilibrium with each other, their centers lining up fairly close together. That supports my suspicion that the OEX is reaching some kind of equilibrium here. Although it can't maintain that equilibrium forever, it could certainly do so for ninety minutes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:35:20 PM
QQQ $35.59 -0.63% ... gosh darnit says the bear. Where in the heck is this $35.55 support coming from?

While the 5-MRT Red #2 is at $35.57, QQQ should have broken.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:31:20 PM
Funny.... ... thought of this stock Link after Jim's 14:15:01 post.

Believe me Keene.... I shouldn't be talking.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:26:56 PM
QQQ $35.60 -0.58% ... chart is up for 14:09:18 post.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/13/20,  2:24:53 PM
Tomorrows economic calendar starts out with a bang with the October PPI at 8:30ET. The PPI is an important indicator of wholesale and commodity price pressure, and because it usually is a good predictor of changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Prior numbers for the PPI and PPI ex-food and energy (core) are (% change from prior month):
July 0.14%, 0.20%
August 0.42%, 0.13%
September 0.28%, 0.0%
Consensus is for 0.2% and 0.1%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:21:39 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) $25.54 -1.69% Link ... Jeff: MSFT is going down slowing, below 200 SMA, what is your opinion going long at this level?

Thanks as always

Sam

This has crossed my mind several times in the past week, but here's a twist....

I've been looking at SELLING a naked put on MSFT with November expiration. I'm looking at SELLING the MSFT November $25 puts (MSQWE), but would like to try and get a PREMIUM of $0.30 per contract, and I was looking at doing this just PRIOR to the weekend, where by selling the put ahead of the weekend, then some premium erosion might take place from Saturday and Sunday. Then, option expiration is going to be NEXT week, Friday 11/21/03.

My thoughts are, if bullish MSFT at these "lower levels" and willing to pick some stock up at what should be good point and figure support of $25.00, then why not try doing it with a PUT option. Hey... if I'm willing to buy it at $25.57, why not try and SELL a naked $25.00 put for $0.30. This OBLIGATES me to buy the stock at $25.00, less the $0.30 premium received, or $24.70 per share.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  2:15:29 PM
It's still tough to watch every bearish thing I thought might happen (top near 525, bear flag test of 522.80, breakdown out of the bear flag, test of bear flag, test of 520.80-521 support) actually happen and not be participating in a play, but another thing that I thought might happen is another bounce attempt from either the 520.80-521 support zone or the one slightly below that, nearer 519-519.75. I'm not certain that bounce will be strong or that it will even occur, but this is where it should occur. If the OEX slips below these levels this afternoon, 517 is another to watch. We will have other plays on other days, but this one seemed as close to a sure thing as we could get and it would have nice to have back-to-back gains.

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  2:14:33 PM
Hitting a new 52-week high is Brocade Communications (BRCD). The stock began its high-volume rally yesterday after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to "out perform". The true catalyst is probably the rumor that BRCD may land a supply deal with DELL. Whatever the case volume has been three times the norm two days in a row. There is old resistance at $8.40 but a breakout from there and there is virtually no resistance until the $12.50 level.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  2:09:18 PM
QQQ $35.58 -0.67% ... here is a 60-minute interval chart, which we could compare to 60-minute chart of XBD.X. Link

While VERY different components (nothing in common) there is some resemblance.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  2:01:17 PM
While the Nikkei has fallen below its 50-dma, the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX all remain above their respective 50-dma's. Both the CAC 40 and the DAX have broken above fairly well-formed continuation inverse H&S formations, promising much more upside: about 250 more points of upside on the DAX. Here's the formation as seen on the DAX: Link (Note: Stockcharts.com has not yet updated the chart to show today's gains.)

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  1:58:37 PM
I wonder what CNBC's demographics are men-to-women because they sure like playing that Victoria's bit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  1:57:05 PM
QQQ $35.63 -0.49% .... After writing the 01:00 Update, I really beging to struggle with my profiled (BEARISH DAY TRADE) in the QQQ from $35.70.

I an perhaps be thankful there are no brokerage stocks in the NDX/QQQ, but at the same time, I have to now think about a QQQ rebound (maybe on tomorrow's economic data) back to yesterday's high.

Let's do this. Let's give the QQQ a chance to reach our intra-day target, but LOWER DAY TRADE STOP to $35.80. I'm going to post a 60-minute chart of the QQQ in just a second, where I look to tie in potential QQQ trade, with what we see POTENTIALLY taking place in the XBD.X chart.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  1:53:42 PM
The current OEX rise looks like a rise up to test the broken support of the bear flag. If that's what's happening, the OEX should again break down ahead of 522.80 and certainly before it climbs much above 523.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  1:47:22 PM
Very interesting. Here's the pitchfan chart I posted last week. Sure makes the OEX 517 level look important, doesn't it? Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  1:47:10 PM
01:00 Update at this Link

Of anything I've (Jeff Bailey) typed in the market monitor in recent weeks, this may be some of the most important things I've written in that time.

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  1:44:11 PM
Stand out sector losers this afternoon are:

SOX semiconductors: -1.91%
RLX retail index: -1.34%
NWX networking: -1.15%

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  1:42:48 PM
Stand out sector winners this afternoon are:

DRG drug index: +2.6%
BTK biotech index: +1.88%
OSX oil services: +1.66%
HMO healthcare: +1.6%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  1:40:25 PM
Here's the progression of the three retests of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's that I mentioned in my 13:34 post. Link This progression shows a weakening in the OEX's trading pattern surrounding those averages. What will be the next step?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  1:34:18 PM
Sure is tough to see a possible bear flag setting up, then see prices break out of it, and not be able to trade it. If I'd been here this morning, I would have called a bearish play, but the downside target would have been 521, already hit. Now that same 520.80-521 zone that provided support this morning is just below the current OEX position, with 519-519.75 support just below that. Each of those could be a possible bounce point, and as long as the OEX remains above its 60-minute 100/130-pma's, we should be looking for possibilities to buy pullbacks.

I'm just not so sure that the next test of those averages will result in a climb. They've been tested three times now since the OEX climbed back above them in mid October. On the first retest, the OEX climbed again before ever touching them. It had a close approach only and no touch. The next time, early in November, the OEX did touch those averages on the retest, but all candle bodies formed above the 130-pma. The next time--just a few days ago--the OEX sank beneath those trendlines, printing a number of small-bodied candles just below the averages before rising again. Each time the OEX has climbed, but each time, there have been signs of increasing weakness.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  1:26:08 PM
Checking foreign markets, I see that the Nikkei's gain today resulted in a doji candle. The 115-point climb inched the index toward a retest of the violated 50-dma, but that average still lies more than 300 points above Thursday's close. Daily RSI has turned up again, but MACD hasn't yet done so. It's perhaps notable that MACD signaled bearish divergence back when the Nikkei was reaching new 14-month highs in October. (Some of our markets have been signaling similar bearish divergence.) However, to balance that gloomy observation is the possibility that the current Nikkei pullback could be a bull flag. It doesn't quite have the right shape, but flags aren't always classical in form any more than H&S or other formations are.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  1:18:39 PM
After another attempt to break above the midpoint of the decline from yesterday's high to today's low, the OEX has begun breaking down out of the possible bear flag pattern with one five-minute close outside that flag. The breakdown slowed as the OEX hit the 30-minute 21-pma. I would give more weight to what happens near that 30-minute average than the five-minute pattern, but if the OEX then falls beneath the 30-minute 21-pma at 522.02, we have further bearish evidence.

I continue to believe that a bearish entry at yesterday's close or at this morning's opening might have been a good idea--easy enough to say when I can look at today's chart and see that such an entry would have gained entrants several OEX points--but I'm not so sure about risk vs. reward on an entry now, if that bear flag breakdown should continue. Support begins a point below the current level and continues down to 519. With support so close now, I think we missed our opportunity this morning. Rather, I missed my opportunity. I hope some of you benefited from this morning's drop. I reluctantly believe now that the rest of us have to wait until the 60-minute 100/130-pma's are retested.

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  1:06:21 PM
Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow are crossing the wires:

We need more tax-related "moves" to boost the economy.

He is encouraged but not satisfied with U.S. Growth.

A permanent estate tax repeal is a top priority.

A tax cut repeal would kill the current economic prosperity.

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  12:56:37 PM
A few stocks that have been missing from the headlines lately are all of those Chinese Internet stocks. Ever since Netease.com (NTES) announced earnings in late October they've vanished from the traders radar screens. Unless you're bearish and have finally begun to recoup your losses from shorting them on the way up.

NTES gapped down after its earnings and it's been a steady stream of lower highs since but we are seeing a slow down in the selling. The stock has found support at the $40 mark. A move back over $45 might be a tempting trigger to capture any bounce back to the $50 level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  12:51:10 PM
The OEX turned down as it approached the 522.80 midpoint of the decline from yesterday's high to today's low. It's still trading within the possible bear flag, but testing lower support. If it breaks that support, I probably wouldn't consider the breakdown confirmed until a decline below 521.50, but then the OEX would soon face the 520.80-521 zone. Still . . . sure is tempting to jump to conclusions, but I'm trying not to do that.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  12:41:13 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 659.51 +0.19% Link .... Now this has got me thinking..... Will discuss in today's 01:00 PM EST Update. (see today's MM 12:16:30 and 12:14:29 posts)

In a way, I wish I had found this BEFORE I profiled the QQQ Day Trade bearish trade.

My current thoughts are... "what do you expect the major indices to do IF the XBD does edge up to that right shoulder?" Might the XBD move up to the right shoulder on tomorrow's economic data?

We can never be sure, and XBD may never get back to right shoulder, but it could also go even higher. We should probably keep the XBD on our sector monitoring list. After all, how closely tied are the brokers to the stock market?

Hey... look at the QQQ on 60-minute interval. Looks similar to XBD doesn't it? While there isn't a broker in the bunch, looks rather similar, but as usual, the QQQ dip to $35.00 just recently may have had the QQQ once again "overdoing" things to the downside again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  12:38:30 PM
GE's back to the base around 28.35 where the Fed intervention money hit at 1:50pm yesterday. Must be so great being a Feed outlet -- no risk plays on the way up using public money and pure profits on the way back down! Now maybe we'll see which way the market really wants to go (until that heavy foot hits the accelerator again ;-)

What Matt is getting at here is that the Fed's 22 primary dealers tend to buy the big cap, widely listed names. MSFT is another "Feed" outlet. Imagine Bill Gates' glee at being able to sell his countless shares to the Fed when they jump all over the offers?

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  12:35:43 PM
Surging retailer American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS) is up a strong 6.8% after announcing earnings this morning before the bell. The company beat estimates by 2 cents but revenues were slightly less than a year ago. The big rally has pushed AEOS right to the bottom of the gap from August (2003). The stock failed here in October and this time resistance coincides with the bearish trendline on its P&F chart. Bulls can watch for a breakout over the $18.75 mark.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  12:35:33 PM
The current OEX rise looks like a bear flag rising off the day's low, but you know the drill. If it is, it should break down before retracing more than 50% of the range from yesterday's high to today's low. That would occur near 522.80. So, if the OEX climbs much above 523, we know that we don't have a typical bearish distribution pattern here, so that helps us to form a first opinion about this afternoon's likely action.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  12:30:52 PM
Here's something I'm watching on the OEX daily chart, to help me gauge market direction: Link (Note: I'd like to claim I had laughing gas at the dentist's office and that was responsible for the grammatical error on this chart, but that's not true.)

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  12:27:14 PM
If you're bullish on Biotech then shares of Gilead Sciences (GILD) may be worth watching. Two months of declines have stalled at the stock's simple 200-dma in late October. Since then the stock has consolidated sideways between its 200-dma and the $55 level. It's P&F chart also shows a potential bottom forming and is close to reversing into a bullish buy signal. The stock is continuing its bounce from yesterday and just broke back over round-number resistance at $55.

Now there appears to be various short-term resistance levels over head ($55.00, 55.50, 56.50, its simple 50-dma (58.71) and the $60 mark). Plus GILD has a descending trendline of lower highs from its early September highs. If you're bullish a move over the $56.50 level should break that trendline.

Some of you may be inclined to short this descending trendline but waiting for a drop through its 200-dma is probably safer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  12:19:49 PM
Did you notice that the OEX low of the day was 520.86, just pennies above the 520.80 level that has been so important for so long? Those old numbers come back to haunt us time and again.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  12:17:53 PM
I'm seeing that the OEX did test the bearish #2 on the 5MRT system, giving a slightly bearish look to the market, but it essentially held above that level and now attempts to climb. I'm also seeing a series of lower five-minute highs on the OEX, with possible bearish divergence setting up between the current level and the 10:00 highs (higher stochastics high, lower price high). The trouble with that scenario, though, is that the OEX hasn't completed its rollover and so might yet make a higher high to match the stochastics higher high.

I wanted to close that bullish play at yesterday's close, as I did, because I suspected that the OEX might retreat from a test of 525, just as it did. I also suspected that a bearish entry at 525 might have been a good idea, but I didn't want to enter when I wasn't going to be here this morning to tend the trade. Now the OEX is kind of in the middle between support and resistance and I don't see a good entry right here.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  12:17:36 PM
Thanks for the Marketrac link.

You know I had never visited that site before, and its really amazing! Great information, and they did an incredible job on the development of the site. It's one of the most impressive I've seen. So, Thanks for sharing. William

Always a pleasure, William.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  12:16:30 PM
Gabelli Asset Mgmnt. (GBL) $35.12 +1.12% .... (see 12:14:29)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  12:14:29 PM
Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 659.27 +0.15% .... Hmmm... slight gains here and session high. Check out the 60-minute chart on the brokers for pattern recognition.

Hmmmm... #2. This weekend's Ask The Analyst column.... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  12:10:46 PM
Chuckling to myself that the market always seems weaker when I'm long, and stronger when I'm short.

When short the QQQ, I take note that NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6,022.45 +0.05% is now back in fractionally positive territory. While there isn't a 1, 2 or 3-lettered stock in the QQQ, always look for any DIVERGENCE from anything that could reach up and bite me in the ear.

When short, I'm wondering... "where is Saddam?"

I'm not a nervous trader, but try to stay alert

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/13/20,  12:10:28 PM
Linda, we held the markte for you. Did not want you to miss anything important.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  12:08:07 PM
Thanks, Jane. I was afraid I was missing all the action, but it doesn't look as if I did.

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  12:07:18 PM
The big bounce in the BTK biotech index yesterday helped fuel a corresponding bounce in Amgen (AMGN) (and vice versa). The close over its $60 mark in AMGN is a little concerning for the bears but we're not seeing any follow through today. AMGN is fractionally lower while the BTK continues to bounce.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/13/20,  12:06:42 PM
Welcome back Linda, you were missed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/13/20,  12:04:32 PM
There's nothing like three hours in a dentist's chair to start the day off right, but I see that not much has happened since I've been gone. Actually, though, something has happened: the OEX has so far failed to build on yesterday's momentum. As I check volume patterns, I note that those patterns show slightly more decliners than advancers and slightly bigger down than up volume. Those patterns haven't been strong enough to drive the OEX below key support, however, and some 30-minute oscillators are hinting at an upturn while the OEX holds above those key averages we watch, balancing that negative "couldn't build on momentum" with a positive "holding above support." Other oscillators still turn down. Right now, without having been here to judge the flow of the markets, I would say that the OEX probably has some more testing to do of those key averages before a decision is made, with perhaps a sinking down to the 30-minute or 60-minute 100/130-pma's, between 519-520.50. Whether there's more downside than that or whether the OEX is only letting off intraday overbought tension, I'm not sure. I have to watch the action a while longer to see what I think.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  12:03:28 PM
Ask the Analyst column this weekend might be of interest to traders that are monitoring their buy/sell program premium alerts, levels within the Pivot Matrix, and using the 5-MRT retracement technique.

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  12:01:05 PM
Bullish traders may want to keep an eye on Amazon.com (AMZN). The stock bounced from the $51.00 level three days ago. This was previous resistance in late September. Now the stock has broken back above possible short-term resistance at $54 and is getting close to breaking the four-week trend of lower highs. There is stronger resistance at $57.00, which is top of the gap from October 9th and held twice in the last three weeks. Short-term oscillators are already bullish and its MACD could confirm the reversal in another couple of days.

FYI: AMZN's P&F chart is on a bearish sell signal but has bounced back into a column of X's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  12:00:51 PM
QQQ $35.66 -0.41% ... here's same 5-minute chart shown this morning, but screen captures just after QQQ traded back to $35.70. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  11:49:46 AM
Watching NYSE's live Marketrac today. Shortselling is running below the 30 day average so far: Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/13/20,  11:48:49 AM
Prudential has upgraded PACCAR (PCAR) from an "under weight" to an "over weight" based on valuation this morning. The stock shot higher but remains under its simple 50-dma. This is really throwing a wrench in the P&F chart bearish triangle sell signal the stock just produced two days ago. The "high" for the day near $87 is a bad tick. Incidentally, PRU's new price target for the stock is $87.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  11:47:47 AM
QQQ $35.70 -0.30% .... Looking Day trade short here (see 10:54:25) with stop firm at $35.88, target $35.36.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  11:44:14 AM
The put to call ratio has edged up to .66, just in time for everyone to short the bottom of the wavelet trough that preceded the current bounce in progress. The TRINQ and TICKQ are neutral, but the short cycle upphase seems to be firming, and it's looking like the bounce is going to hold for now. I expect a lower high on this move, and the high of the day should not be touched.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  11:43:07 AM
11:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/13/20,  11:40:23 AM
IBM just keeps climbing after that bullish conference yesterday. It is still well off its 94.50 high from early October but not by much. GE saw a huge bounce yesterday after CEO Immelt made bullish comments at the same conference. He said he was "feeling better every day" about the economic recovery due to the pickup in their short cycle business.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  11:14:27 AM
Good news for bears is that the put to call ratio is dropping, now down to .61. The VXO is 17.52- the market is paying more for calls with which to ride the inevitable bounce. Well, if everyone expects it... .61 is neutral, but getting low. We might have seen the day high, particularly if the p/c ratio keeps dropping as it is.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/13/20,  11:12:12 AM
Linda did not miss anything this morning. The OEX has been trapped in a 2 point range from 521-523 and showing no indications of breaking that anytime soon.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  11:00:59 AM
Dec gold is back to flat at 395, with HUI -1.06 at 223.76 and XAU -.60, a very shallow correction following yesterday's huge runup. Bonds are holding their gains today, up 5.7 bps on the ten year Dec future contract.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:54:25 AM
QQQ $35.60 -0.58% .... DAY TRADE short the QQQ on a move back up to $35.70, stop $35.88, target $35.36.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:48:04 AM
QQQ $35.59 -0.61% ... stopped per yesterday's bullish profile from $35.38.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:42:51 AM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6,014 -0.09% ... now back lower. I'm thinking gains in healthcare related stocks most likely largest contributor to earlier morning's gains for NYA.X.

A lot of 3-lettered stocks in the DRG.X +1.5%, RXH.X +1% and HMO.X +1.18%, as well as Oil Service (OSX.X) +1.%

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/13/20,  10:35:23 AM
The Nasdaq cannot seem to make any progress this morning despite an upbeat outlook from AMAT with a +20% growth in orders. The SOX was back at its 52-week high around 531 on Wednesday but weaker today. Too much good news or not enough? Dell reports tonight but they have already affirmed estimates so no fireworks expected. Michael Dell has refined the art of not answering direct questions and instead replying with a Dell sales pitch so not expecting any negative news either.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:34:12 AM
Novell (NOVL) $9.45 +5.72% Link ... Stock continues to gather Wall Street's favor after the company's 11/04/03 announcement that it was acquiring SUSE LINUX.

Up today on comments out of IBM on the Linux space. Some investors say NOVL is "best way" to play IBM activity in Linux market.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/13/20,  10:31:22 AM
The Dow appears trapped in the 9800-9820 range we have seen several times recently. A dip below that range puts us back at the 9780 support. Overhead resistance is still 9850.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:30:22 AM
LSI Logic (LSI) $9.84 +6.71% Link ... higher after announcing it plans to spin off its storage business and create independent storage systems company. LSI said the company's storage systems unit had revenues of $104 million, or 23% of the $450 million Q3 revenue.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:23:35 AM
QQQ $35.69 -0.31% ... here's a quick look at QQQ intra-day 5-minute bar chart. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  10:19:31 AM
This claims data, is a bunch of hooey. The Labor Dept. Economists must have studied accounting under Karl Rove, as their numbers keep dancing around, like our Iraq policy. Went Xmas shopping with the grandkid this weekend, and Opry Mills here in Nashville was a Ghost Town. Where all the business is, I have no idea, but something is very, very wrong with all the numbers coming out. I bet your not having these problems in Canuckistan, Jon.

We are, George. The trouble isn't the trouble, but rather the unreliability of the information being propagated. Last I checked, the mandate of the government was to report facts, and not to manipulate public opinion. In Canuckistan, our unemployment rate is reported at around 8%, if memory serves. It's probably closer to 10%, as I would guess is closer to the "non-pro forma" number in the US.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  10:10:06 AM
The VXO is up to 17.30, with the p/c ratio neutral at .66. Bonds are very strong today, gold pulling back slightly. Complacency is and remains ludicrously high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:09:34 AM
Sector action now more mixed. Retail (RLX.X) -1.04% and Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 222.56 -1% sector losers early.

Biotech (BTK.X) 456 +1.38%, Disk Drive (DDX.X) 138.37 +1.14%, Drug (DRG.X) 317 +1.47%, Oil Service (OSX.X0 1.47% have major indices firming.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:05:23 AM
NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 6,022 +0.05% ... edging to a second-consecutive 52-week high here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:03:43 AM
Network Appliance (NTAP) $26.07 +3.89% Link .... is Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 138.14 +0.97% index gainer. No news that I can find. Company set to report quarterly earnings on November 18, with consensus at $0.09 per share.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:55:45 AM
QQQ $35.81 ... back to unchanged. Are bulls going to defend?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:54:42 AM
Russell-2000 Index (RUT.X) 540.84 +0.03% ... first major index to show a gain today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:53:05 AM
Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 137.22 +0.29% .... edges green here.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/13/20,  9:50:22 AM
Investors have a mixed bag to deal with this morning. The Jobless Claims were inline with estimates at 366,000 and showed no material bounce from the prior week at 353,000. By material bounce I am referring to a bounce back into the 390K range where the numbers had been for weeks. Last weeks numbers were only revised up +5000 so the new reality is a much lower number that was not reversed. They have the AMAT comments that orders have grown +20% and the Gartner Group estimates that chips should grow over 20% in 2004. This is great news and it has been confirmed from multiple directions.

The bad news was the unexpected cautions from Wal-Mart. This caught everyone off guard as WMT was thought to be bullet proof. If the monster retailer is seeing cautious consumers at the very lowest levels in the retail chain then there could be some problems ahead. This unexpected news could be the virus that slows any market advance because it strikes at a very low and very broad level of the economy.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:50:22 AM
QQQ $35.75 -0.19% ... session high here, and most likely technical fill back into this morning's gap lower. 5-MRT has BLUE #2 at $35.78 and BLUE #3 at $35.82.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:47:43 AM
QQQ $35.68 -0.34% ... session low so far has been $35.61. Some strength from biotech most likely finding the QQQ hovering at our correlative, yet tentative DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot support of $35.64-$35.65.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:44:37 AM
Major Indices ... holding steady. Might try and fill back to the upside their technical gaps lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:43:39 AM
Sector action broadly lower in early going with S&P Retail (RLX.X) 381.13 -1.62% the only sector lower by more than 1%.

Sector gainers have Oil Service (OSX.X) 85.51 +1.43%, Drug (DRG.X) 316.21 +1.17%, Biotech (BTK.X) 454.76 +1.11% and AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 227.05 +0.99% early gainers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:39:55 AM
Dow Transports (TRAN) 2,937.32 -0.53% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:39:21 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 331.44 -0.2% ....

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:35:35 AM
QQQ $35.71 -0.28% .... In last night's Index Trader Wrap, I profiled that we would raise our bullish stop in the QQQ to $35.59.

I had posted this in the MM here, but may have not posted it before MM was archived.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:31:12 AM
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,434.62 -0.61% ... opens right at our WEEKLY Pivot of 1,434.85. A break much below the 1,433 level most likely takes out our QQQ profit stop.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  9:23:30 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Mark Phillips   11/13/20,  9:23:22 AM
WMT $57.97 Well, with WMT missing earnings estimates by a penny this morning, it appears we're going to get a feel for how strong the bullish sentiment really is. Current listed as a LEAPS Put play, the stock is going to be under some pressure today. The stock is trading down near $56.50 in the pre-market. If that fails to hold as support, then the next solid support is found near $55 at the 200-dma. We may be getting ahead of ourselves here, but a trade at $55 will be significant, as it will generate a new PnF Sell signal, something we've been waiting to see for quite some time.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/13/20,  9:17:33 AM
Linda had a dentist appointment this morning and will be posting when she returns.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  8:11:11 AM
I will have to step away for 45 minutes at 8:30AM. I will try to post the 8:30AM releases as they come out, but may not be able to get them all in time. For those of you watching for the data as it's released, CNNfn.com usually covers it in a timely manner at this Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/13/20,  8:06:57 AM
We await the following economic data this morning:

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. for Oct., prior reading -0.1%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil for Oct, prior reading 0.2%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/08 - Briefing forecast 370K, Market forecast 364K, prior reading 348K

8:30 AM Trade Balance for Sep, Briefing forecast -$39.1B, Market forecast -$40.2B, prior reading -$39.2B

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/12/20,  11:37:48 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Trackers have QQQ at $36.01, SPY at $106.45 and DIA at $98.98 in late session trade.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/12/20,  11:37:35 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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