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  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  5:23:25 PM
Pivot Matrix for next week at this Link

Here's an updated chart of the SPX with the new WEEKLY levels. A little wider S2 to R2 range this week. Link

Bulls got another new 52-weeker in the SPX!

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/14/20,  4:03:50 PM
Great week Linda, congrats.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  3:58:29 PM
Swing Trade Summary: OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
11/12: Entered a bullish OEX trade at OEX 521.29.
11/12: Exited at 524.32.
Result for that day: 3.03 OEX points our direction.

11/14: Entered a bullish OEX trade at OEX 521.96.
11/14: Exited at 522.50.
Result for that trade: 0.54 OEX points our direction.

11/14: Entered a bearish OEX play at OEX 523.03.
11/14: Exited at 518.22.
Result for that trade: 4.81 OEX points our direction.

Result for that day: 5.35 OEX points our direction.

Results for the week: 8.38 OEX points our direction.
Have a great weekend, everyone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  3:52:15 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.72 +6.28% .... offer is $3.72. Will suggest taking the offer here to close out. Just not comfortable holding a trade in BGO over the weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  3:46:59 PM
Right now, I'm glad we exited our bearish OEX play. The close may change that opinion, but I'm glad we were able to get out so near our original 517 target and near the so-far low of the day. Just wish we'd gotten in at the high of the day. I was a few minutes too late pulling the trigger on that entry this morning, holding out for the last of the economic numbers, and a few minutes might as well be a lifetime sometimes.

I think we'll have fun next week, but maybe not Monday. The OEX is now below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's but is above 517 support. We'll be watching those levels to guide our trades. Here's why I think 517 is important, based on a chart I've been posting over the last few weeks: Link

One caution for those holding November options and planning on holding over the weekend. You're going to be losing a lot of time premium as we move into opex week, and if the markets gap against you Monday morning, it's not going to be nice.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  3:45:26 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.71 +6% .... will place an order to close out at $3.69 here. $HUI.X +1.07% giving up earlier gains, and willing to try and see if I can't work a fill at $3.69.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  3:32:08 PM
Citigroup (C) $46.45 ... stopped break-even on day trade bearish.

Session low was $46.26.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  3:25:12 PM
Earlier in the week, a reader asked if it had been possible to make money on the OEX trade that netted 3.03 OEX points our direction. For that reader's benefit and that of others, I tracked a November 520 call and 520 put through today's trades, as I thought that was the strike most readers would likely choose, as nearest to the money in each case. At the entry, the call was 5.30 x 5.60. At the time of our exit, it was 5.40 x 5.70. Unless a trader was able to get between the bid and the ask each time, that play probably resulted in a small ($0.20 + commission) loss, as I would have expected.

At the time of the bearish entry, at OEX 523.03, the November 520 put was 2.75 x 2.85. At the time of our exit, it was 5.00 x 5.10, so that play resulted in a considerable profit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  3:17:07 PM
With the Dow sitting on 9750 support, I just didn't feel comfortable holding onto the OEX bearish position. I thought the OEX had possible downside to 517 today, but thought it likely that 517 would be defended, so we didn't have much possible reward below us, perhaps, and a lot of risk of a bounce. Of course, MOC orders could send the OEX all the way down to 515, another possible downside target.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  3:15:50 PM
FYI: INTC is rolling over and looks vulnerable to its simple 50-dma just north of the $30.00 mark.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  3:13:01 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We exited our bearish OEX play at 518.22, having entered at 523.03, for a 4.81 move our direction.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  3:11:27 PM
FYI: MMM appears to be forming a bearish engulfing candlestick. A break under the $78 level might be a bearish entry but shares have some support at $75.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  3:10:40 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's exit here. Those who want to accept more risk down to 517 are free to do so, but there's just too much bounce potential here for my comfort.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  3:09:20 PM
Citigroup (C) $46.27 -1.76% ... session lows here. day trade adjustment ... pull your target of $46.15, but lower stop to break even here. Now place closing target at $46.05.

With stocks extending losses after bond market's close, most likely see larger sell on close orders.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  3:09:11 PM
Technical traders may want to pay attention to Merrill Lynch (MER). The stock has faded back from the $60 level of resistance to its simple 50-dma. Shares have bounced off this moving average for months but today's late afternoon selling has pierced this level of support. It could be an entry point - question is what direction? Bears will have to deal with price support at $55 but the momentum is not in favor of the bulls.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  3:02:52 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.70 +5.7% .... About an hour to go Jeff, will you be holding this trade?

Not on BGO, too small a cap gold stock that tends to attract bullish speculators, and may well be explanation right now as to why BGO +5.7%, while $HUI.X is up 1.42%.

Let's stick with target of $3.55, but will want to close out before the weekend.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:55:18 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 520.25, just above the 60-minute 100-pma. Feel free to choose an even tighter stop to preserve profits.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  2:53:56 PM
Yes indeed, Jeff- I show 12,000 ES contracts traded in a single price bar on my 150-tick ES chart.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  2:52:56 PM
Sell program premium alert SPX = 1,050

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  2:52:24 PM
Citigroup (C) $46.45 -1.38% ... day trade short here, stop $46.71 target $46.15.

Stack a 5-MRT lower. I looked at C earlier at $46.95, but didn't think we'd see this type of weakness. Now seeing several financial related stock at lower ends of stacked lower 5-MRTS. C may have some room.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:52:16 PM
It's getting ugly now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:50:08 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's start following the OEX down fairly closely with our stops. Lower stop to 521.50.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:47:00 PM
The OEX arrested its fall right on the 60-minute 100-pma at 520.07. A plunge through that level should see a quick test of the 130-pma at 519.52. If the OEX should fall through that, the declines should accelerate. That's the only reason I'm staying in the play and not issuing a profit exit here. The OEX is already below the corresponding 30-minute averages, hinting at a downside fall to 519 and then to 515 if that level falls.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  2:46:11 PM
Bema Gold (BGO) $3.74 +6.85% ... bid x offer is $3.73 x $3.74. There was a pretty good seller here earlier this morning, but now need him/her to be here again.

Otherwise, will honor stop of $3.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  2:39:13 PM
Speaking of which, Dec gold is currently up 4 at 398.30, silver up .111 at 5.406, HUI +3.01 at 225.72.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  2:37:52 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.49 -0.13% ... gold traders may want to keep close eye on dollar, with gold so near $400. Here's the dx00y chart with this week's WEEKLY and this month's MONTHLY pivot retracement. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:35:02 PM
I'm expecting a bounce up to 520.80-521.50. If the OEX goes much above that, it's stronger than it looks. If it instead continues dropping, it's even weaker than it looks and our 517 target might really be in play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:31:58 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower the stop to 522.25. I apologize for lowering the stop so often, but the OEX is dropping quickly.

Conservative traders should consider setting a profit stop near 520.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:29:05 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 523, our entry level.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:28:08 PM
A test of the all-important OEX 520.80 level is occurring. If the OEX doesn't at least try a recovery from this level, then matters are bearish indeed. Of course, you know what I hope happens.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  2:26:59 PM
VXO up to 17.17.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  2:25:18 PM
Goldman Sachs (GS) $94.21 -1.97% ... getting crunched today and trading our 61.8% head/should top retracement.

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 639.17 -3% ...

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:20:17 PM
Look for first OEX resistance now near 521.75 and then stronger resistance near 522.50.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/14/20,  2:17:04 PM
ADBE just announced a layoff of 3% of their workforce

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:16:13 PM
We're going to have to watch closely here. The OEX now declines to the level of the 30-minute and 60-minute 100/130-pma's, layered now between 521.08 and 519.52. They're matched by the known 520.80-521 historical S/R. Since early November, the OEX has been trading in a range roughly from 525-517, though, and I think it's probably headed down toward the bottom of that range. It might not get there today, however, as Friday-afternoon craziness may rule instead.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  2:15:13 PM
Don't relax just yet, bears- don't turn your back on this man: Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:11:41 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 523.75, just above the last two afternoon peaks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  2:09:09 PM
The OEX is approaching an ascending trendline that I began drawing off Wednesday's mid-morning decline. That trendline held yesterday afternoon and again this morning--one of the reasons I risked the bullish play, among many. It currently crosses near 522.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  2:07:07 PM
(biggest) Sector Losers this afternoon:
_____________________________

XBD broker-dealer index: -2.49%
INX Internet index: -2.24%
SOX semiconductors: -2.1%
GSO software index: -2.04%

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  2:05:12 PM
Sector Winners this afternoon:
_____________________________

DRG drug index: +2.33%
OSX oil services: +0.92%
XNG natural gas: +0.83%
XAU gold & silver: +0.77%

Wow! The DRG drug index is up three big days in a row.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  2:01:29 PM
Looking for something smaller than a 6 foot robot?

On page 33 of the Neiman Marcus Christmas catalog is a 44 carat yellow diamond ring for just $800,000.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  1:58:05 PM
What the Neiman Marcus catalog has to say about those robots we've seen on CNBC:

His & Her Robots

With this premiere programmable pair, happening holidays are just a few remote-clicks away.

Nowadays, most couples would love some extra arms and legs to help conquer their ever-expanding to-do list. Our 2003 His & Hers multifunction robots fit the bill quite nicely, thanks.

- Someone at the door? Click your remote and send His Robot to check it out. His Robot's voice circuitry can deliver your greeting, and His on-board video camera gives you a view of the visitor, who can hop onto His platform and be delivered to you in the den.
- Need some help getting the groceries into the house? Her Robot is happy to help.
- Need to leave a message for the spouse or kids? Tell it to Her Robot, and she'll spread the word.

FEATURES
-Designed and built at International Robotics.
-The most advanced adult-size interactive remote-controlled robots out there.
- Both have on-board computers for user-friendly functionality in daily use.
- In fact, His Robot is designed to respond empathetically to us humans and features programmable technology.
- When their power lights signal you, just plug them into any outlet to juice them up to full speed.
- Our life-size Robots stand nearly six feet tall.
- Our exclusive package includes much more, like preprogrammed messages and sequences of movements, and training for the humans.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  1:50:39 PM
This OEX drop below 522.50 may erase the bullish divergence on the five-minute 21(3)3 oscillators. It does more. It confirms a double-top formation with a downside target of about 521.50. That's not a tradable target, but since we're already in a bearish play, we'll certainly be interested in seeing whether the OEX fulfills or exceeds that minimal downside target. That target is going to take the OEX near the day's low and near known support, so we'll be watching closely as it's approached. I'm beginning to worry that we won't get a strong drop into the close, but that instead the OEX will steady near that known support.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/14/20,  1:43:07 PM
I wish time would run out. My short is growing mold.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  1:41:37 PM
The VXO is down to 16.89, no fear whatsoever, with the put to call ratio at the low end of neutral at .62. Bonds and gold are firm, and it feels like time's running out for the bulls.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  1:38:43 PM
OEX price five-minute highs continue to signal bearish divergence, however. (See my previous post about bullish divergence on the price lows.) When this happens, the OEX often sets up a symmetrical triangle formation, and it may be doing so now, so we can watch for a break of that pattern to gauge further direction. We're in the time zone now when we often see stop-running price spikes, though, so be careful about deciding on direction too soon. Those spikes are sometimes reversed.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  1:35:24 PM
OEX five-minute 21(3)3 stochastics are showing bullish divergence setting up, with stochastics reaching a lower low while price is reaching a higher low. That's not what we want to see.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  1:34:22 PM
Volume patterns continued to show advancers ahead on the NYSE and decliners ahead (by a bigger proportion) on the Nasdaq. Adv:dec ratios were 17:14 for the NYSE as of a few minutes ago and 12:18 for the Nasdaq. Up volume was slightly ahead on the NYSE and down volume stronger on the Nasdaq. New highs totaled more than 500 with new lows at 17, and with total volume at 720 million on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  1:31:41 PM
There has not been much follow through on the Wal-Mart (WMT) weakness from yesterday. Shares are currently down 15 cents and trading in a very narrow range the last few hours. The $55 level, bolstered by WMT's simple 200-dma, could be tough support to crack.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  1:11:54 PM
I know that not everyone watches or listens to CNBC but they were just talking about OI put play Amgen (AMGN). Evidently a Wall Street Journal article is suggesting that AMGN is beginning to make some investors nervous. The WSJ's "Heard on the Street" column highlighted different long-term threats from increasing competition to potential issues with Medicare reimbursements for some of Amgen's drugs.

Shares are down 2% today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  1:09:51 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's raise our stop to 524.50. I'm seeing some resistance line up just above 524.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  1:08:13 PM
The put to call ratio is down to .59 here, VXO still below 17.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  1:05:03 PM
From a reader:

But the Atkins diet strictly limits suger and starch. The restaurants provide plenty of bombs, too.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  1:04:28 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We have now entered a bearish OEX play with the OEX at 523.03. Stop 524. Target 517.

The stop was placed so close because a move above OEX 524 would be a move above the midpoint of the flagpole decline today, and that move might prompt strong short-covering into the close. It may be too close, just as our stop in the bullish play may have been too close. A nightmare scenario for me now would be a rise up to 527 this afternoon after we were stopped when the OEX came exactly to our stop before reversing higher.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  1:02:24 PM
Shares of Progressive Corp (PGR), an OI call play, are finally moving higher. The stock had been creeping sideways near the $76 level but good news has pushed the stock up nearly $3.00 or 3.85%. PGR reported this morning that October premiums were up 21% to $1.17 billion.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  1:01:10 PM
Per Jane's 12:56:12 .... (grin)... maybe that's why DRI's stock hasn't been so negatively impacted on all the "bad news" its been giving investors in recent weeks Jane!

I find it interesting, and often times bullish when a stock gets bad news, but holds tough.

Hey!!!! What are the checkout lines like at Kohls (NYSE:KSS) $52.31 +3.4% Link going to be like this holiday season? That stock has reported enough bad news in recent weeks to choke a horse.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  1:00:26 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Enter a bearish OEX trade here, stop 524. Target 517.

I think we had our bear-flag rise into resistance, and now it's time for the rollover. This also is a risky play, although not countertrend, I don't think. It's risky because of close support. Use only risk capital and enter only if you consider yourself an aggressive trader.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  12:57:17 PM
I thought the Atkins diet was eating a lot of protein and fat. What better place to get both than at a restaurant?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  12:57:07 PM
Per Keene's 12:53:57 ... I also showed a chart of the NYSE Composite, which Keene correctly notes is THE MARKET, where buyers and sellers come together at ONE location. I showed a MONTHLY chart so we could see full range and add retracement. NYSE also testing its 6-year SMA.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  12:56:16 PM
Merrill Lynch is turning bullish on the education stocks again. Both Apollo Group (APOL) and Career Education (CECO) were upped or started with a "buy" this morning. Both stocks are only a few points from their all-time highs.

Another education stock that looks like a potential bullish play candidate is Education Management Corp (EDMC). The stock has been consolidating its late October gains with sideways action between $62 and $65, but today the stock is breaking out to new highs. EDMC is currently up 1.7% to $66.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/14/20,  12:56:12 PM
Jeff, (12:51 post) I like Olive Garden also but will not wait in line for an hour to get in. It is ridiculous!

 
 
  Keene Little   11/14/20,  12:53:57 PM
Jeff, you like to follow the NYSE as THE market. Someone just pointed out to me that for only the 4th time in 13 years, we just touched the weekly 200-pma. My QCharts is showing the NYA.X as split in Jan '03 so I can't verify this on my chart. The last touch, from below like now, was March 2002. We know what happened right after that.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/14/20,  12:52:58 PM
James not only companies but entire industries (12:49 post) like the orange juice industry, the bread industry, the potato industry are blaming the low carb craze for their lackluster performances.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  12:51:33 PM
Diets ... (per James' 12:49:25) ... my parents are both on some type of diet and they've cut back to eating out just 2 times per day instead of 3.

They're just too busy in their retirement to cook.

They like Darden Restaurant's (DRI) $20.64 +0.09 Link Red Lobster and Olive Garden at least twice a week.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  12:50:28 PM
Of course, OEX 522.50 was the low, stopping us out just before the OEX turned around. I was typing that exit because the OEX was reaching a lower one-minute high and because 30-minute momentum remained negative, and because the Beta Index was approaching its 2-minute 100-ema and appearing to roll down.

It may be time to consider where our bearish entry should be.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  12:49:25 PM
Does anyone else believe these companies blaming the Atkins diet? I know it's gaining popularity but I don't actually know anyone who's eating out less because of the diet.

if you didn't hear CNBC just reported that Ruby Tuesday joins several other companies blaming their poor performance on the popularity Atkins and South Beach diets.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  12:46:42 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I had just begun typing an exit when we were stopped out of our OEX long play. We were stopped out at 522.50, entering at 521.96, for a $0.54-point OEX gain, which actually resulted in a small loss to our pocketbooks.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  12:35:46 PM
Swing Trade Signals
Here's what I'm thinking: If we're stopped out now, it's because this formation we've been following up really is just a bear flag rising off the day's low into resistance, which was always a possibility we knew. That's why I'm following the OEX up so closely with our stops. That means we should probably be considering switching sides if stopped out. That would change if the OEX manages to move above 524, though, as that would mean that this isn't a typical bear flag climb. We still might consider switching sides, but just on a different basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  12:33:34 PM
Bearish day trade profile .... Bema Gold (AMEX:BGO) $3.71 +6% ... go ahead and cross the market at the bid of $3.70, stop $3.76, target $3.55

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  12:31:07 PM
December Gold futures (gc03z) 395.80 +0.35% (30-min delayed) ... session high came at $399.40 and just couldn't quite get the $400.00 at this point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  12:26:41 PM
Buy/sell program premium alerts .... since the first 10-minute of trade we haven't gotten any buy/sell program premium alert. I would have thought we would have seen a few more with some of the volatility in the first hour of trade.

I'm looking for some further trade candidates, but with GS already at my bearish day trade target, I sens we're going to see a rather sideways trade the rest of the day for stocks and more of a scalpers trade.

 
 
  James Brown   11/14/20,  12:26:34 PM
Shares of Dow component, American Express (AXP) are currently trading lower after announcing it disclosed that the SEC and NASD are probing its mutual-fund trading operations.

The stock looks ready to break its slow ascending trend on its daily chart and a move under the $45 mark could portend a retracement back to its simple 200-dma and support near the $42 area.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/14/20,  12:23:41 PM
Linda, I had a sneaking suspicion it was you who wrote about the reversal. (Linda's 12:07 post). Thank you for the response.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  12:22:22 PM
It's nice to have another candlestick fan on board, Keene. (See Keene's 12:12 post on the Futures side.) Yes, I see those side-by-side long candles, one bullish and one bearish, on the 30-minute chart. As a candlestick aficionado, you know about the resistance expected midway up that big red candlestick. That's what's got me worried, raising the stop.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  12:22:02 PM
The VXO is currently 16.81, very low. Bonds are still strong, the ten year up 4.3 basis points. Gold and silver have pulled back slightly, with the CRB making 7 year highs. Equities are holding up for now.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  12:13:30 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Raise stop to 522.50. I'm worried about a rollover when the midpoint of this morning's spike is hit, and have considered setting a profit stop soon. However, rather than pull us out of the trade just yet, I'm going to keep those stops really tight. This stop was set below the last one-minute low and at 522.50 support.

 
 
  Keene Little   11/14/20,  12:12:55 PM
Linda, take a look at the 30-min candles also. Nice example of a tweezer top. For non-candle aficionados, a tweezer top (or bottom) are long opposite colored candles side by side. It's a strong reversal candle formation. But, the lack of volume and other technicals still have me worried about calling that THE top. Hindsight will surely clear it up.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  12:07:36 PM
Jane, I referred the reader asking about the reversal to you, thinking you might have written the article (see Jane's 11:58 post). Seeing his question again, I do remember writing both a post and a paragraph in a wrap about key reversals. My information came from Pring's text. First, they come after a long move, which we've had. The beginning of the day sees a sharp spike (up, when the long move has been a rally), with gains made in the first hour or two of trading equaling those sometimes made in an entire day. That perhaps happened today. Volume should explode, Pring cautions, and that did not happen this morning. The last component is that the markets should reverse, closing down on the day. We will see if that happens. So far, then, some elements of a key reversal day have been met and some have not.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:41:24 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Okay, we're in a real danger zone now, approaching the midpoint of the flagpole decline at 523.52. Raise the stop to breakeven. Let's don't lose money if we're wrong. Or at least any more than the spread and commission.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:31:15 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We didn't get the pullback where I expected it, but from a slightly higher level. I'm going to follow this play closely. Let's raise the stop to 521, just below the low of the day. I know that's only $0.50 off our previous stop, but I want us out quickly if the market rolls over again. Watch closely, as I'll be raising stops quickly during the day.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/14/20,  11:28:43 AM
Linda, you are very right (11:26 post). I am looking for a quick 5 points out of the Naz futures and I am gone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:26:11 AM
While it might be confusing to see Jim and Keene taking positions opposite the positions Jane and I are taking, I think we've got different time frames in mind. While I can't speak for Jane, I definitely have a daytrade in mind here on the OEX, with us perhaps taking a quick profit exit a little later. I wouldn't rule out taking that quick profit exit and then entering a bearish position, either. I have always considered this a countertrend play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:23:39 AM
We're getting the pullback I expected between 522.60-522.80, or we were when I first began typing this post. (See my 11:11 post.) I would expect the pullback to take the OEX back down to 521.50-522, near our entry zone and maybe spend about twenty minutes hanging around at that level. Then I would expect another climb. If things aren't playing out that way, if the OEX dips deeper or stays there longer, then this countertrend play might be in trouble.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:20:16 AM
I'm holding onto the arms of my office chair, though, Jim, in this long trade. (See Jim's 11:17 post on the Futures side.) I consider it countertrend and worth a chance of an impulsive pop higher, but it's a risky trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:11:23 AM
At about 522.60-522.80, I'm expecting a possible pullback to our entry level, and then a steadying. Then we'll see.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:07:48 AM
The OEX is facing its first hurdle in rising now--important Keltner band resistance (midpoint of the widest Keltner band I watch), a couple of short-term rising trendlines I've drawn on my five-minute charts, and the last one-minute high just above.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:01:58 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We have entered a bullish OEX play at 521.96 with a stop at 520.50, and a target of 525. We'll probably know quickly if I'm wrong about the possibility for a countertrend bounce.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  11:00:29 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Enter a bullish OEX play here. Stop 520.50. Target 525.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:58:58 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm considering a bullish countertrend play here. Use risk capital only and do not consider entering unless you're an aggressive trader. We will have a tight stop so that we're quickly stopped out. Reasoning: approach of the important 520.80 S/R zone.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  10:53:13 AM
Goldman Sachs (GS) $95.05 -1.01% ... here is quick shot of GS on 60-minute interval. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:53:03 AM
Adv:dec ratios are now bearish for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, erasing the earlier divergence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:50:53 AM
The OEX 30-minute 100-pma lies at 520.86, yesterday's low, and also near the important historical 520.80 S/R that I've repeated so often. If in a bearish play, start watching your stops as that level is approached because many trendlines, historical S/R zones, and moving averages now gather near that level. I don't know what's going to happen as it's approached, but would expect at least a tepid bounce attempt from that point. If not, we're in real trouble, and we'll be watching for a violation of the 60-minute 130-pma as a sign that the next leg down is beginning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:45:00 AM
I'm noticing that the Beta Index is a long way below its 100-pma (exponential) on the two-minute chart. Time for a climb?

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  10:44:34 AM
what's your take on gold being up w/ the stock mkt being up, too, over these past few months considering they are usually inverse to each other. is gold more related to the bond mkt? if i remember up until a couple of months ago the gold mkt would sell off when the stk mkt rose.

It's for this reason that I'm wary of metals at this level, and am down to holding my core position of miners. EVERYTHING is looking expensive now. But, I believe that ultimately, gold, silver and the CRB will emerge as the true value out of this year's huge price markup. I'm hoping to reload the remainder of my long position at lower levels, but am holding the core position just in case.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:42:09 AM
The OEX is finding support-at least temporarily--at its 60-minute 18-pma, an average I also watch. Momentum remains positive. RSI tries to hook up again. I'm wondering: is this now a bullish opportunity now that the bears have had their turn? Remember the inside-day technique? If bullish traders were using that technique, they would still in a bullish play, not yet stopped.

I thought a bearish play would be a good idea from 527, missing the opportunity for a four-point bearish gain. I don't think this point is a good point to consider a bearish entry because the OEX approaches historical support as well as key moving averages. But if I thought there was a possibility the OEX might approach 527, is this a bullish opportunity? I'm thinking, but I can't bring myself to pull that trigger, either. Yet.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  10:39:32 AM
Swing trade short/put .... Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) $95.35 -0.69% ... can short here, stop $96.70, target $92.75.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  10:36:29 AM
Dec gold is up 3.70 at 398, with the HUI to what I believe is an alltime high, now up 3.79 at 226.50, XAU +.78 at 102.07.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:34:21 AM
As of a few minutes ago, adv:dec ratios on the NYSE were still strongly positive, which made me hesitate to enter a bearish play ahead of the expected (past-due now) bounce. I wanted to see how far that bounce carried, but I'd expected that bounce to come from a higher level. The NYSE adv:dec ratio was 16:12 as of a few minutes ago, with up volume bigger than down volume, although both are light. On the Nasdaq, the story is different, with an adv:dec ratio at 10:16 as of a few minutes ago, and with down volume bigger than up volume.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  10:27:06 AM
Goldman Sachs (GS) $95.51 -0.53% .... I may not have gotten this day trade short for $95.70 entry posted in time for traders to get a $95.70 entry, so I will not count this one in my weekly trade tally.

However, after yesterday's observation on Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) started looking at some various brokers on 60-minute intervals for some pattern recognition and saw the potential head/should top looking formation on GS (60-minute time interval).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:22:17 AM
I'm expecting some kind of measured distribution pattern here. Actually, I was expecting it sooner, but if this is just a measured distribution pattern producing this climb, the OEX should not be able to make it above the midpoint of the flagpole drop this morning. That means that if the OEX climbs above 524 again, something else is going on and we should perhaps begin watching for that rise toward 527. Otherwise, we'll be watching to see what happens between 523.50-524.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:16:19 AM
There was a bounce at the point where I expected one--a two-minute bounce, to be exact. I didn't pull the trigger quickly enough this morning, hesitating too long, waiting for a pullback to 524 and another bounce attempt. We're too close to those important averages now to enter without expecting at least some kind of bounce attempt as those averages are hit.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  10:14:48 AM
Goldman Sachs (GS) $95.70 -0.33% .... day trade short here, stop $96.11, target $94.80.

Don't necessarily think 1,000 shares, but think in dollar terms of what you normall trade on a day trade

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  10:08:40 AM
Put to call ratio .63, VXO 16.92.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  10:05:07 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X0 332.09 -0.14% .... not showing much at the open

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 652.76 -0.96% ... sector loser in early trade.

This may have major indices softening up in a bit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:04:02 AM
OEX 523.50-524 is a likely place for a bounce, so I've been thinking that there would be a bounce attempt from that level. We'll see.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  10:02:53 AM
S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 385.56 +0.71% ... recouping yesterday's losses. Didn't see much of a reaction after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which as Jim noted at 09:51:42 came in at 93.5 versus estimate of 91.4.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  10:02:42 AM
Swing Trade Signals
Still watching to see if this is a possible bearish entry. Stay tuned. I had hoped to see a push back up toward 527 before we considered entering a bearish play, so that we'd know quickly if we were wrong and could get out. We may have missed that best bearish entry, though.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  9:55:23 AM
A 7.75B weekend repo drains net 750M against the 8.5B expiring.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  9:51:35 AM
Based on an ascending line begun at the November 3 high and touching the November 7 high, I'm thinking that the OEX is going to run into resistance near 527, if not earlier. That's not saying that the OEX can't break over that resistance, but it's getting stretched pretty thin here, and I may begin looking for a possible (risky) bearish entry. I'm just not sure yet, as it's also possible we could see a pullback to 524 or so and then a buying crescendo.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  9:46:09 AM
Pharmaceutical Index (DRG.X) 327.96 +2.09% ... sector strength again today. I caught brief TV news clip that there had also been some broker comments that drug group had reached a depressed level of attractive valuation.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  9:45:34 AM
8.5B in fed repos expire today, awaiting the announcement.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  9:38:53 AM
Based on Jeff's 5MRT system, the OEX is also bullish, of course. It's also very near the predicted 524.77 upside target based on that day-trading system. That also makes me cautious, but perhaps I'll find later today that I just was too hesitant in front of those economic numbers.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  9:36:53 AM
The OEX first five-minute included a high of 523.12 and a low of 522.75, with a midpoint at 522.94. The OEX is currently above that midpoint and above that first five-minute high, indicating early strength, but I, too, would like to wait until the 9:45 economic numbers before making a decision, if possible. The OEX has now climbed above yesterday's inside day, too, so technically, we should be considering jumping into a long position here. I'm just cautious ahead of those numbers. With the VXO as low as it's been, I'm cautious period about long positions, but we may need to consider one.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  9:35:12 AM
Mutual fund inflows Trim Tabs said U.S. mutual funds that invest primarily in stocks too in $4.4 billion in new money during the week ending Wednesday, after taking in $2.6 billion the week before.

International stoc funds had inflows of $300 million, after losing $1.4 billion the prior week. Meanwhile bond funds took in $300 million, after seeing outflows of $900 million the week before.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/14/20,  9:26:21 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  9:18:49 AM
Yesterday, the OEX (and other indices) printed an inside day--the high was lower than Wednesday's high and the low was higher than Wednesday's low. For those who would like a description of trading the "inside day technique," here's a link to an article Jeff wrote back in 2001: Link The idea is that we would go into today's trading with no bias. A break above yesterday's high of 523.68 should be a signal to enter a bullish play with a stop just below yesterday's 520.86 low. A move below the 520.86 low should be a signal to enter a bearish position with a stop just above the 523.68 high. While I'm not sure yet that I would want to enter at just those positions as we don't yet have any other information about the day, we can be sure others noticed that inside day, too, and may be moving on that information.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  9:14:02 AM
Oct industrial production +.2%, capacity utilization 75%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  9:10:51 AM
5 minuntes until Oct productivity, exp +.4% and util exp 75%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/14/20,  8:39:53 AM
Equities, treasuries and gold are down on the 8:30AM news, PPI +.8% vs. expectations of .2%, showing more of the inflation that the Fed continues to deny. Retail sales came in -.3, also worse than expectations of -.2.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/14/20,  7:27:32 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened near the flatline, but then fell through the rest of the day, closing down 170.61 points or 1.65%, at 10,167.06. Last quarter, real gross domestic product grew a greater-than-expected 0.6%. That extended the number of consecutive quarters seeing growth to seven. Economists cited higher overseas orders for flat-panel displays and cell phones as being behind the increased spending by manufacturers. Other economic numbers have shown slowing consumer spending, however. Higher tobacco taxes, a cooler summer, and an increased contribution toward medical costs all contributed to decreased consumer spending. Also competing with the good news of the GDP data was its impact on currencies. Despite reports that the Japanese government has intervened in the currency market again this week, those efforts have failed to hold the yen at its early-week low against the dollar. Exporters suffered. Techs and Internet-related stocks were hit particularly hard. Banks also declined after the government denied reports that it would bail out another troubled bank.

Other Asian bourses were mixed. In South Korea, labor strikes and a rising unemployment rate combined to increase concerns about the country’s ability to climb out of recession, perhaps prodding the Finance Minister to speak out, saying he expected the economy to recover. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.40%. The Taiwan Weighted climbed 0.15%, but Singapore’s Straits Times fell 0.57%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.20%, but China’s Shanghai Composite climbed 0.87%.

Many European bourses trade higher, with pharmaceuticals credited with helping the markets gain and automakers credited with hampering further advances. Markets across the world debate the likely benefits of the Republican compromise recently offered on the prescription drug bill, with European pharmaceuticals gaining as a result. October’s new car registrations for Western Europe declined 0.3%, in a result some characterized as stabilization, but automakers declined. European insurers Allianz and ING at times traded weaker after their earnings reports.

Currently (7:24 ET), the FTSE 100 trades higher by 23.50 points or 0.54%, at 4396.50. The CAC 40 trades higher by 29.42 points or 0.86%, at 3441.97. The DAX trades higher by 15.34 points or 0.41%, at 3780.93.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:00:38 PM
Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 10,239 -0.95% Link in early going. So far the session low/high has been 10,223.74 and 10,354.84

Japan's government said economy expanded by a better-than-expected 0.6% in July-September quarter, helped by firm exports and healthy capital spending. Economists had forecasted 0.3% growth. Main concern remains strong yen vs. dollar.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:00:29 PM
Bullish percent action today

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link saw a net gain of 1 stock to a point and figure buy signal. Still "bear confirmed" at 71%.

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link saw a net gain of 1 stock to a point and figure buy signal. Still "bull confirmed" at 80.8%.

S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link saw no net change. Still "bull correction" status at 81%.

Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) Link saw no net change. Still "bull correction" status at 83.33%.

NYSE Composite Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link saw a net loss of roughly 2 stocks (approximately 3,000 total) to point and figure sell signal. Still "bull confirmed" at 73.43%.

NASDAQ Composite Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link saw a net gain of roughly 2 stocks (approx. 3000 total) to point and figure buy signal. Still "bull confirmed" at 72.92%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/13/20,  10:00:14 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/13/20,  10:00:06 PM
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