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  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  5:18:53 PM
QQQ final intra-day chart. In the opening 5-minutes I thought today's trade could be a volatile one, and indeed it was. I've said before I don't really like trading on or just ahead of an option expiration, as it can be a difficult trade. With two theories of "Option Gravitivity" for QQQ at $34.00 and $35.00, both levels could have been in play today. If there was ever a chart to show what trader's call a "round tripper" then this is it. Link

Please note that the 5-MRT shown on this chart would be corrected for bad ticks in opening 5-minutes we used earlier this morning. I made these corrections late this afternoon, only because I'm showing this same chart in tonight's Index Wrap. Point is that I don't feel today's trade can in anyway be interpreted with any degree of certainty. Two scenarios most likely is either defensive (but why the rally from opening low to $34.68?) and option expiration related (makes sense as today's total trade makes no sense). I don't think Michael Jackson flying into Santa Barbara, then posting bail, triggered today's late selling.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  4:19:24 PM
SPX put and QQQ long ... end of day mark. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  4:12:49 PM
A few stocks that bullish traders may want to keep an eye on:

DHR is trying to bounce from its 50-dma near the $80 level.

UTX is bouncing from its 50-dma (again), which is the bottom of its channel.

ETN continues to display amazing relative strength.

FAST appears to be bouncing from the 45-46 level and might be building a bull flag pattern.

ROST, a slower play, is still very strong and bouncing above its 50-dma. The company just announced a stock split and is probably headed for resistance near $55.00.

BGG, bouncing again from its rising 50-dma.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  4:09:38 PM
Actual Max-Pain values for the major stocks/indexes are:

GE 30.00
CSCO 20.00
MSFT 27.50
INTC 30.00
MMM 77.50
IBM 90.00
QQQ 35.00
SMH 40.00
DJX 97.00
OEX 515.00
RUT 520.00
SOX 480.00
SPX 1040.00
NDX 1400.00

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  4:05:57 PM
Option Gravitation Point QQQ Jim Brown just sent me an e-mail where QQQ max pain was calculated at $35.

With QQQ $33.91, my reply was .... "Really? Looks $34-ish to me. I'm in pain after being stopped out of a bearish trade at $34.63. (I'm not grinning either)

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  3:50:10 PM
Opion Gravitation Point ... received e-mail late this afternoon from trader that said his calculation for QQQ max pain was $34.00.

Jeff,

This morning I did the math and it appeared that the most pain at QQQ opex (net of both calls & puts) was 34. I didn't have the fortitude to try to ride down to 34 once you called the day trade short this afternoon, but it looks like I may have been right. Any thoughts ?

Roger

With QQQ at $34.00, you don't want to know my thoughts. #*^@%#!

Note: Max-Pain and Max-Pain Point, are registered trademarks.

Note: Xerox is also a registered trademark. We can no longer run a xerox of a document. We must copy it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  3:16:34 PM
Remember in our high-school calculus classes when we used to get partial credit on our tests or homework? Can I get partial credit for the post I was putting together this afternoon but couldn't post? Just in your minds? The post I was putting together said that we should target 511, with 508.50-509 a possibility. The OEX was at 516.25 at the time.

However, partial credit only is due because the OEX is bouncing from just above 513, another potential support level. From 511.75-513, the OEX faces possible support from various S/R zones. If you entered a bearish play on your own, possibly as the OEX began rolling over beneath the 30-minute 130-pma, congratulations, but take profit quickly when offered! Next resistance gathers near 515 and then again from 515.75-516.40.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  3:14:47 PM
The sell-off in shares of software maker Adobe Systems (ADBE) continues after peaking earlier this month near $46. The stock recently broke support at $40.00 and intraday action looks like a failed rally with $40 as resistance. There is probably some support near $37.50 but bears might target the simple 200-dma closer to $35.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  3:14:42 PM
Traders are buying the dip in shares of Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), which had slipped back towards its simple 200-dma. Traders had previously bought the bounce at the 200-dma back in July and in September this year. The bounce today is pushing BBBY back above the $40 level but shares remain under their 50-dma. BBBY also has resistance near $42 and $44.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  3:00:46 PM
Like Keene in his 14:45 futures post, I'm sitting here saying, "What to do?" The OEX turned down from its test of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's and now has fallen below support from the neutral triangle. When that happened, I was putting together an entry for a bearish position when the server problems occurred. During the time that took, we lost more than a point of the downside and I grew more wary again. I'm reminding myself that this is opex week and we get false breakouts and breakdowns, and that late on a Thursday afternoon, there sure is an effort to maneuver the indices to certain levels. In that case, that means an effort not to let them fall too far. The TRIN has been climbing, but perhaps hasn't yet reached a critical leel where it will switch to bearish.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  2:38:28 PM
Market Monitor Problem
The IT dept has informed me that some users are having connection problems and we appear to have a server challenge. The only way to fix it is to reboot the server farm and reload all the connections. They will be dropping the servers in 2 min and they should be down for about 5 min. You will need to restart your monitor to reconnect to the application. Wait 5 min before doing this to give them time to finish the reboot.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  2:25:15 PM
So far, the OEX finds support at the top of that neutral triangle it broke out of a couple of hours ago.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  2:13:33 PM
The OEX is definitely turning back from its challenge of the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, headed down to retest the support offered by that neutral triangle. The TRIN is beginning to move up, too, but isn't yet bearish. The BIX turns down although remaining above the correlative averages, with the OEX still showing divergence with the BIX's behavior.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  2:10:07 PM
Sell Program Premium Alert ... SPX = 1,043.83

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  2:03:50 PM
Comcast (CMCSK) $30.00 (Unch) Link ... Jeff, Can I trouble you for your views on Comcast (CMCSK)

No trouble.... CMCSK is a stock I've got on my bullish trade list in here.

One reason is I like that BIG low pole warning late last year from $17.50 to $26.00.

Stock obviously finds sellers at this point just below $33

In a second I'll show you how I have one retracement place on the stock, that lines up wonderfully for a bullish trade here, stop just below $29, and longer-term target to $39.24.

Right now I'm rather "neutral" on the stock, other than bullish tint based on risk/reward, where this one could come unglued to the upside on trade at above $33.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:45:35 PM
Remember that we're entering the prime stop-running time of day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  1:42:47 PM
Treasuries are positive, up 2.6 bps for ten year bond futures, while gold is down just 80 cents and equities are all green. Something doesn't fit the recent pattern, which is the strength in equities. If bonds crack first, I'll revise my bias, but the strength in stock indices looks odd today. The put to call ratio is .80, and the VXO is -.41 at 19.07.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:41:27 PM
After moving up to test the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, the OEX is now falling back below those averages. That would normally be a sign for a bearish position, but I just can't get all my ducks to line up in a nice row today. $TRIN is still bullish.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:37:27 PM
Boy, I keep thinking that the OEX is going to roll over one of these places, but Jane's (and Jonathan's, at other time periods) reminders that we ought to be watching the TRIN keep me noticing that the TRIN is going down, not up.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:33:29 PM
Here's another reason that I haven't been anxious to step into a long position just yet. The OEX soon hits the gray S/R line it recently broke: Link I'm still wary of a rollover somewhere beneath that line as the OEX eventually works itself down to the next support level. I'm not ready to enter a bearish play until I think it's about to rollover--well, I thoughtthat several times today but not confidently enough to enter a bearish play. I just didn't see signs of a rollover yet and saw that increasing strength in the SOX and BIX. So, I'm in a personal DMZ here.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  1:29:41 PM
Early headlines for tomorrow:

Bread industry holds crisis "bread summit"

American breadmakers are blaming the Atkins and other low carb diets for an estimated 40% of Americans eating less bread than in 2002. Tomorrow there will be a summit to discuss how to turnaround declining sales.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  1:21:51 PM
The RLX retail index is bouncing higher from its technical support at the 50-dma but the parade of retail earnings news was mixed this morning.

Sporting goods retailer Galyan's Trading Co (GLYN) reported Q3 earnings that beat estimates by 2 cents with a net loss of 21 cents a share. Q3 same-store sales were down 5.7% and the company expects same-store sales to be flat to slightly lower in Q4. It doesn't sound like good news but the stock is up 11%, potentially on the improving sales trends in August and September over the previous quarter.

Apparel retailer Wet Seal Inc (WTSLA) reported a larger than expected Q3 loss and warned that it will also post a loss in the fourth quarter. Falling on his sword was the company's CFO who resigned for "personal reasons". Shares gapped lower and are desperately clinging to psychological support at $10 and its simple 200-dma. WSTLA is currently down 12%.

After the close tonight The Gap (GPS) and American Eagle (AEOS) will report earnings.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:21:48 PM
Here's what I'm noting on the BIX 30-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  1:15:41 PM
AT&T just filed a patent infringement suit against PayPal and Ebay for taking payments over the Internet.

AT&T alleges that, through the use of their online payment systems, PayPal and eBay have infringed AT&T's U.S. patent that covers transactions in which a trusted intermediary securely processes payments over a communications system such as the Internet. The use of a trusted intermediary ensures that one party will not have to disclose sensitive information, such as a credit card number or bank account number, to the other party to the transaction. AT&T's lawsuit seeks compensation for PayPal's and eBay's unauthorized use of the patented technology.

Next they will patent air?

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  1:08:10 PM
Kohl's Corp (KSS) is up 3.27% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to a "hold". Shares of the retailer had pulled back to their June lows near $48.50 in Wednesday's session. Today's gain puts it back above the $50 mark but KSS has yet to break above its 10-dma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:07:33 PM
Here's the OEX upside breakout of the neutral triangle, and the reason why I didn't want to go long immediately on that upside breakout: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  1:06:57 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $54.10 +4.4% ... upside alert here at new 52-weeker.

Still holding pofiled calls from 10/29/03 and encouraging here.

Would like to see some bullish confirmation from TRMB above $30 though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:03:43 PM
I watch the OEX with respect to the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, because the OEX seems to trade more in relationship to those averages, at least lately. Not always. The OEX currently challenges those averages, now at 518.26 and 518.25.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  1:02:50 PM
QQQ $34.68 +1.34% .... bumping against DAILY S2 here.

I have to go write 01:00 Update, but on 5-minute interval close ABOVE $34.68, will trade long the QQQ with bid of $34.69, stop $34.55, target $34.99.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  1:01:39 PM
And the SOX fell back beneath its 30-minute 100/130-pma's after having shot above them, at least long enough to close the last 30-minute candle beneath them with a shadow that pierced them. (See my 12:47 and 12:55 posts.) We still don't know then whether this is a bullish development or the best (semi) shorting opportunity of the week, but are still on alert to strength. The BIX remains above those averages, having closed the previous 30-minute period above them, and the big-cap heavy OEX challenges its corresponding averages, following those "leading" indices.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:58:05 PM
FYI: Wal-Mart (WMT) declared a quarterly cash dividend of 9 cents per share payable January 5th, 2004 to shareholders on record December 19th.

WMT is commonly referred to as the biggest retailer on the planet. Aside from their staggering revenues ($246 Billion last year) their sheer size is amazing.

As of October 31, 2003, the Company had 1,476 Wal-Mart stores, 1,430 Supercenters, 533 SAM'S CLUBS and 60 Neighborhood Markets in the United States. Internationally, the Company operated units in Argentina (11), Brazil (25), Canada (220), China (31), Germany (92), South Korea (15), Mexico (625), Puerto Rico (52) and United Kingdom (265).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  12:55:18 PM
However, the other indices diverge from the SOX and the BIX, already above their 30-minute 100/130-pma's. Hmm. Now is that bearish divergence or bullish divergence?

Seriously, if the BIX and SOX should now fall beneath those averages again, with the other indices not yet above those averages, I might treat this as I would higher highs on stochastics or RSI that weren't met by higher price highs--bearish divergence. Right now, I'm just using the information as a warning that these two indices could be leading the others higher.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:52:33 PM
One stock that has been making frequent appearances on the OI watch list is American Standard Co (ASD). Shares have resisted any strong profit taking after peaking near $98 two weeks ago. The slow fade to the $95 level is bullish as there appears to be a lack of willing sellers. I'm not saying the stock is invulnerable but its relative strength is impressive. Aggressive bulls could buy the bounce at $95 and aim for the $100 mark. Bears can wait and see if it breaks the $95 level and its simple 21-dma. The 50-dma near $90 makes a quick target.

Lending some support for the bulls is Bank of American who started ASD with a "buy" this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  12:51:21 PM
Here's what happened with the BIX when it finally pushed above its linked 30-minute 100/130-pma's: Link (Note: It's climbed even higher while I was posting this.) This index and the SOX sometimes tend to be leading indicators for the other indices, so bears need to be careful here. I've been ready for a bearish trade all day, but it never set up and now I'm glad.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:49:15 PM
QQQ intra-day chart on 5-minute, but this is the same chart shown in prior Index Trader Wraps, with WEEKLY/MONHTLY pivot analysis retracmenet. Link

Where's today's BLUE #6 from 5-MRT? Hmmmm.... $35.05.

QQQ session high is $34.68, and that is today's DAILY R2. If DAILY R2 taken out to upside, have to think QQQ upside potential to $35.00.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  12:47:11 PM
The SOX is now moving up through its 30-minute 100-pma. (See my 11:09 post for a link to a chart showing how the SOX has behaved in relationship to this average over recent months.) The SOX sometimes has candle shadows that punch up through that average, overshooting it a little, so I wouldn't want to draw too many conclusions until at least this 30-minute candle closes above that average. Otherwise, instead of a bullish action, we could be looking at the best shorting opportunity of the week. However, now that we know what's going on, we can be watchful.

Also a reason to be watchful is the behavior of the BIX with relationship to those averages. In the last 15 minutes, the BIX shot up above its 30-minute 100-pma after having challenged it all day. Are these two indices hinting that the OEX will behave the same? It's approaching those correlating averages now.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:47:07 PM
Counteracting any chip stock positives from the A.G.Edwards upgrades is a 9.3% drop in shares of Marvell Technology Group (MRVL). The company merely beat estimates by a penny and guided inline. Shares gapped lower this morning and have traded in a very narrow range. The drop does not concern at least two brokers as Legg Mason suggests using the current weakness as a buying opportunity. Pacific Growth upgraded MRVL to an "over weight" this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:45:58 PM
Buy Program Premium Alert SPX 1,044.86 +0.23% ... begin to confirm prior thought that previous 12:00 Sell program was simply to feed needed liquidity to buyers.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:44:29 PM
QQQ $34.65 +1.28% ... stopped bearish at $34.63. Upside potential here to $35.02. Will follow with the WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot chart.

Bulls can play long here again, but now follow with stop of $34.45

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:41:13 PM
I don't doubt you.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  12:40:48 PM
James, it could well be that Aged Wards(tm) has some stock to unload.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:39:44 PM
A.G.Edwards is giving the semis a small boost by upgrading Semtech (SMTC) and ATMI Inc (ATMI) to a "buy". Shares of ATMI were looking pretty weak and today's gain only looks like a temporary bounce on the way down. SMTC looks a lot stronger and is trading near one-year highs.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:39:00 PM
Sell Program Alert was seen at 12:00 PM EST, and that was right where SPX traded session high of 1,043.78.

From what I see at this point, that may have only been some feeding of stock for liquidity, not necessarily a more negative sell program. Reason I think this is SPX has found bid above its WEEKLY S1.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:33:45 PM
The Dow Jones Transportation Index (TRAN) is still in its strong rising channel and has not yet tested its rising simple 50-dma. However, not helping the group were two trucking companies that were downgraded to "hold" this morning. Heartland Express (HTLD) was one of them and shares are struggling with support at $24.00 level after flattening out the last few months. The second trucking company is Swift Transportation (SWFT) who is also trading lower and headed toward its simple 200-dma near the $20 mark.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:31:08 PM
QQQ $34.45 +0.74% ... back to test its DAILY R1 of $34.45 for second time since trading its WEEKLY S1 of $34.55.

SPX 1,041.81 -0.06% .... just hasn't been able to muster a move above yesterday's highs of 1,044 at this point, but trading right at its WEEKLY S1 of 1,041.32 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  12:28:10 PM
The nested Keltner channels that I watch are showing an OEX that's in total equilibrium right now, with the central averages of the three nested channels all lining up in close proximity with each other, and with the three channels themselves arranged symmetrically. That tells me that the next breakout may be significant, so I'll be watching the shortest-term of the three channels to see which direction it heads. At the same time, the OEX trades near the apex level of the neutral triangle that's set up on the 30-minute chart, with a breakdown there occurring at about the same place that would signal a downturn in the Keltner channels, too.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:26:03 PM
One of today's best performers is Foot Locker (FL). The stock is up more than 11% after reporting earnings late yesterday. The company reported net income of 41 cents a share, which is 7 cents better than the estimates. At least one analyst came out this morning and upgraded the retailer to a "strong buy". Volume is already 10 times the average.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  12:25:58 PM
FOX news is reporting a highway in Atlanta has been shut down because of a suspucious package.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:24:02 PM
QQQ updated 5-minute chart. Link

VERY TIGHT stop just above today's high as I'm uncertain as to an expiration FRIDAY peg back to $35.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/20/20,  12:18:30 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) is up a marginal 0.47% (12 cents) but building on round-number support at $25.00. MSFT has not yet broken the three-week trend of lower highs as its simple 10-dma continues to put pressure on it. Potentially contributing to the move was news that MSFT reported last night after the close it had settled the S. Dakota class action lawsuit. Currently, MSFT tops the NASDAQ most actives.

Meanwhile the GSO software index is one of the strongest sector indices for the session.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  12:16:51 PM
I received this in an advertisement for gold stocks this morning and thought it was interesting.

Long before Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman, he wrote an article called "Gold and Economic Freedom" that was published in The Objective in July of 1966. In his article, Greenspan actually stated "gold and economic freedom are inseparable."

Imagine this for a minute, if you will.

We have the Fed Chairman, who is flooding us with dollars not backed by gold, writing a report 37 years ago saying that gold is the key to "economic freedom."

In the report, Greenspan said that Fed pumped too much money into the economy leading up to the stock market crash of 1929, "triggering a fantastic speculative boom." Gee, didn't Greenspan do that himself in the 1990s?

Thirty-seven years ago, Greenspan said "By 1929 the speculative imbalances had become overwhelming and unmanageable by the Fed... In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings..."

Interesting that Greenspan has fallen into the same trap he wrote against nearly 40 years ago.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:15:17 PM
SPX put vs. QQQ long hedge ... just after Philly Fed Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  12:12:20 PM
The OEX is now moving toward the apex of that neutral triangle on its 30-minute chart. I'm thinking about a bearish play if the OEX should break to the downside, which would now occur at about 515.50. I'd probably want to give the OEX a little wiggle room for overshooting that boundary. I'm not ready to commit to a long play, however, with the important averages overhead, should the OEX move to the upside instead.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  12:11:34 PM
QQQ $34.52 +0.9% ... day trade short QQQ here, stop $34.65 to begin, target $34.30

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  12:09:16 PM
Negatives in the Philly Fed survey include a huge drop in new orders from 29.0 to 20.8, drop in hiring, drop in work week and a drop in shipments to 26.8 from 28.8. This was not a positive report.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  12:00:04 PM
By the way, although I've talked about bearish entries today, those entries are predicated on the OEX's position below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's. If the OEX were to move above those averages and volume patterns and other conditions supported a bullish play, then we'd have to consider a bullish play. I'd have to see that supporting evidence, though, with the volatility indices having reached new lows last week and then moving up this week. That's the kind of behavior that often happens at market tops, so I'd need lots of evidence, but would not rule out the possibility.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  11:59:40 AM
Jim has just reported the Philly Fed at 25.9.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  11:58:34 AM
QQQ $34.60 +1.16% ... Philly Fed any second.

Bulls long can simply raise stops to $$34.40.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  11:58:07 AM
Philly Fed Survey 25.9 vs (est 26.0, last 28.0)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  11:56:29 AM
We have a new OEX three-minute high (first sign of possible increasing strength), but no breakout as yet of the neutral triangle on the 30-minute chart. That's going to require a move up beyond 517. Then the OEX is going to slam into the resistance now gathering just above and below 518.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  11:55:42 AM
QQQ $34.52 +0.92% ... updated chart on 5-minute. Really shows bullish resistance trend in play here. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  11:53:53 AM
12:00 Philly Fed Survey (est 26.0, last 28.0) out shortly

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  11:49:33 AM
On the OEX, we've had a series of lower highs on the three-minute chart. As the OEX rises now, I'll be watching to see if that trend continues or if the OEX reaches a new high. I'm still thinking there might be a bearish entry here, but am not sure if it will come on a failure through the bottom of the neutral triangle I showed, a rollover at the top of the neutral triangle again, or a failure as the OEX tests the 60-minute 100/130-pma's after breaking out of the neutral triangle to the upside.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  11:37:03 AM
Here's one thing I'm watching on the OEX 30-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  11:24:55 AM
Hadn't mentioned it, Linda- your scoop. VXO is just below 20 currently. Remember our pounding the table at 16.62. Those levels didn't last long.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  11:20:54 AM
Perhaps Jonathan has already mentioned this morning that the VXN is currently above 30.00. Just barely, but it measures 30.01 as I type.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  11:09:54 AM
Here's how the SOX.X has been trading in relationship with its 30-minute 100/130-pma's (exponential) and where it is now: Link Many believe that the Nasdaq leads the markets and the SOX leads the Nasdaq, so the SOX bears watching even if only because so many other people watch it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  11:03:41 AM
Here's my theory, which sometimes (but not always) helps guide my outlook. When a market zooms either up or down on news, it sometimes needs to have a "do over," as if it didn't really mean to do what it did, and it wants to go back to the starting point. However, that plunge or bounce, whichever it was, shows where the vulnerabilities are. We've seen--and so has anyone in a bullish position--that the OEX remains vulnerable at least down to 513, for example. Still, we need evidence that a rollover is going to occur before just jumping in, but this morning's action makes me watchful for signs of a rollover. The trouble is that rollovers can begin suddenly and you sometimes miss them entirely when you wait for signs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  10:53:02 AM
While the OEX has been trading more in accordance with its 60-minute 100/130-pma's lately, the SOX has been more closely following the corresponding averages on the 30-minute chart. The SOX now challenges its 100/130-pma's on the 30-minute chart, at 509.63 and 509.31 respectively, with the SOX at 509.17 as I type. The SOX sometimes overshoots these averages (or the 30-minute candle shadows do), but if it's going to turn down, it should soon be time for it to do so.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  10:48:53 AM
I hate days when the Nasdaq and the Dow can't come to some sort of agreement. With the SOX moving higher, the Nasdaq does, too. Either it's going to pull the other indices higher along with it, or else the Dow relative weakness is going to pull the rest down. Which is it? We're going to have to wait to see, but we may be in for some choppy trading until that's decided. The OEX is acting like an index that wanted to turn down and can't and may reluctantly climb since it has no other choice. How's that for anthropomorphising the indices? Whatever the outcome, I'm certainly glad I checked the Nasdaq and SOX before committing us to a bearish play. We OEX traders can't afford to have tunnel vision.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  10:44:16 AM
I'm seeing a lot of support gather (historical S/R being joined by moving averages, etc.) just beneath the current OEX position, which may mean that we'll get an OEX test of 517.50-518. That also means that a fall beneath the current position is going to gain even more significance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  10:36:12 AM
Put to call ratio .81, with equity pcr back to .65 and index pcr 1.29.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  10:35:39 AM
If we weren't seeing the COMPX over 1900 and the SOX over 500, I'd probably be considering a bearish entry here. That's worrying me a little.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  10:31:43 AM
QQQ $34.34 +0.35% ... just off session high of $34.45. Here's intra-day chart with time line of this morning news (White House evacuation, then Oct. Leading Indicators). Link

I will be out of the office tomorrow (Friday) and will most likely not profile a swing trade type of trade again today.

May look for a bullish trade back near $35.15 with target of $34.57, but very similar to yesterday's bullish profile. I just didn't know that some airplane was going to fly over the White House today, which clearly had hard stop triggered at the open.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  10:25:38 AM
Swing Trade Signals
This test of the OEX 50-dma is an important one. A failure to push above this level would likely send the OEX lower again. A push above it would likely test 518-519, where resistance now gathers, and we'd get an opportunity to see how the OEX behaves there. If the OEX continues to turn down from this 50-dma level, however, we might consider a bearish play again. I'm not sure about the ability to move above 518-519, though, in the event that the OEX does sustain levels above its 50-dma. That doesn't seem likely at this point.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  10:19:52 AM
The OEX heads up to test its 50-dma at 516.34 again.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  10:06:21 AM
10:06am FED'S MOSKOW: U.S. HAS SERIOUS LONG-TERM FISCAL PROBLEM

10:06am MOSKOW SAYS SUPPORTS OPEN MARKETS, FREE TRADE

If so, he must have accepted the wrong job offer.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  10:03:44 AM
The OEX has now retraced more than 50% of the flagpole decline, alerting us to unexpected strength. It's also alerting us that this is just a crazy morning for trading and only those really quick on the draw would have profited so far.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  10:00:57 AM
10:02am U.S. SEPT. LEADING INDEX REVISED TO FLAT FROM - 0.2%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:59:08 AM
By a couple of measurements (50% retracement of the flagpole drop, gathering Keltner band resistance, 30- and 60-minute 21-pma's), my wish list would include a move up to and test of 515-515.50. It looks as if we're beginning to get that test as I type. I'd like to see the OEX settle there for a little while before rolling down, if the OEX is going to roll down, so that indicators can resort themselves and so that option prices settle down, too. I just don't know what's going to happen, but would you want to buy any dips right now? I just don't know if the Plunge Protection Team would feel the same reluctance.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:59:02 AM
Leading Indicators for October came in at +0.4%, which was above the 0.2% forecast.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  9:58:58 AM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index +0.1 vs last of 0.20

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  9:58:22 AM
October Leading Indicators +0.4% vs estimates of +0.2%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:56:15 AM
SPX put and QQQ long synthetic hedged account. Here is how this trade would have looked minutes ago. I'm using this for this weekend's Ask the Analyst question, where several traders asked about this type of trade from yesterday's market monitor profile. Link

This is how trade looked at last night's close .... Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  9:52:56 AM
3B overnight repo just announced, for a net addition of 3B today.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:48:51 AM
Shoulda, woulda, coulda: we shoulda jumped in at the open, unconfirmed rumor or not. I shoulda set that stop a few cents higher and stayed in the trade overnight, turning a losing trade into a gaining one. These are the most difficult moments in trading, but we have to take a deep breath and remember that there will be other opportunities. As the OEX dives so deeply, those puts are going to be inflated so much that I just don't see a way for us to jump in right now on the bearish side.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:47:50 AM
QQQ $33.97 -0.69% .... here's QQQ intra-day chart with 5-MRT. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:43:43 AM
The first five minute range on the OEX was rather large, so I'm going to use a 3MRT system today to watch the OEX. That often works well with the OEX. The first three-minute range was from a high of 516.20 to a low of 515.23, for those of you without 3-minute charts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:41:11 AM
The OEX has likely first support near 514-514.27. What to do if it falls right through that level? We've fallen too far too soon to enter a bearish position here, I think, even if 514 is important. We need to wait for a retracement and rollover, but we may not get it.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:37:14 AM
QQQ $34.08 -0.38% .... looking to backfill its morning gap back higher. Those not using hard stops most likely snug a stop under DAILY S1 of $33.93 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:36:03 AM
The OEX first five-minute range had a high of 516.20 and a low of 514.71. The midpoint of that span lies at 515.46. The OEX lies below that, showing early weakness.

By the way, I did not mean my previous "party" reference to make light of the problems occurring throughout the world.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:34:11 AM
These markets keep spoiling my party. I was ready to jump in on a bearish play with a violation of 516, but the news that the markets were reacting to a possible evacuation of the White House as well as the blasts in Istanbul stayed my hand, because if the news was found to be wrong or misinterpreted, then the markets could spike the other direction just as quickly. Let's see what develops.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:32:09 AM
BIG 5-minute bars forming in this morning's trade. Should make for good range in today's session, volatility.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:30:27 AM
I hesitate to jump in on a news-driven spike lower.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:29:41 AM
QQQ $33.85 -1% ... stopped on bullish trade from $34.24

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  9:28:34 AM
MSNBC reporting that an airplane has approached the no fly zone around the White House

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  9:28:01 AM
Can I have that stopped-out-by-$0.07 bearish play back? I suspect that the OEX may open near or below the 516.40 level that supported it through the last couple of hours of trading yesterday. Will it find support near 516 and then climb to test those overhead averages we've been watching or roll over from here?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:27:59 AM
QQQ $33.91 here.... Jim Brown just updated in future monitor that Reuters has reported that the White House has been evacuated.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  9:26:31 AM
Reuters reporting that the white house has been evacuated

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/20/20,  9:26:20 AM
QQQ $34.21 ... lower at $34.05 in pre-market trade. Later this morning at 10:00 AM EST, Leading Indicators for October are due for release and expected to rise 0.2% compared to September's 0.2% decline.

Might look for QQQ to fill its gap back higher in early going.

At this point, will wait for first 5-minute bar to form and set up 5-MRT, but will stick with last night's QQQ update for Bullish from $34.24 with stop at $33.94 and upside target of $34.57

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  9:22:50 AM
News that the SEC has removed the loophole that allows shorting on a downtick using "married" or "bullet puts". Short sellers now need an uptick even when using a married put position.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  9:20:27 AM
A 10B 14-day repo has replaced 7B expiring on that timeframe with a net add of 3B. 3B in overnights expires today, and so any overnight repos announced at 10AM will be a net addition in that amount.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  9:19:10 AM
Testimony of Richard Spillenkothen on corporate governance Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/20/20,  9:18:57 AM
Speech by Chairman Greenspan on the current account deficit. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  9:07:50 AM
Here's the latest update on the ongoing revisions to the weekly data. I no longer trust the government's data at all:

Date reported revised

10/09 382K 388K

10/16 384K 390K

10/23 386K 391K

10/30 386K 391K

11/06 348K 353K

11/13 366K 370K

11/20 355K

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  8:32:25 AM
Semi Book-to-Bill was 1.00 for Oct v .96 in Sept

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/20/20,  8:30:13 AM
Initial claims 355K vs. estimated 356K.

8:30am U.S. 4-WEEK AVERAGE OF CLAIMS IS LOWEST SINCE FEB 2001

8:30am U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 15,000 TO 355,000

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/20/20,  6:58:18 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei rebounded in Thursday’s trading, but news of two blasts targeting the UK embassy and U.K. bank HSBC headquarters in Instanbul are likely to affect U.S. trading more than the Nikkei’s behavior. Western companies with offices in Istanbul have begun closing those offices and evacuating staff. Those companies include European banks and retailers with offices or stores in Istanbul. European markets dived after the news hit. Currently, reports say 15 were killed and hundreds injured. Al Qaeda has claimed responsibility for the attacks. In Europe, airliners have been particularly hard hit.

Although European markets had traded higher before news of the attacks hit, they turned down at that point along with our futures. Currently, the FTSE 100 trades down 31.20 points or 0.72%, at 4296.20. The CAC 40 has fallen 31.02 points or 0.93%, to 3312.36. The DAX has declined 44.68 points or 1.22%, at 3607.61. All have begun a tentative climb off their day’s lows, reached soon after the news hit. Bush, in the U.K., and Blair have moved up the time of a previously planned news conference, and will be speaking shortly.

Returning to Asia, trading was mixed across the region. The Nikkei opened in positive territory and closed near the day’s high, adding 251.10 points or 2.61%, to close at 9865.70. In Japan, October’s trade surplus grew a higher-than-expected 20% above the year-ago level, with exports to China credited with the trade surplus growth. With the Chinese economy expected to show continued strong growth, hope is that the country will continue to be a strong consumer for Japanese exports, although some movements are underway to lessen dependence on Japanese goods.

Elsewhere in Asian, markets were mixed. The Taiwan Weighted fell 0.53% and South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.29%. Singapore’s Straits Times lost 0.89% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.23%. China’s Shanghai Composite gained 2.81%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  9:42:35 PM
QQQ here's QQQ chart where I've now placed Thursday's DAILY levels on a 5-minute bar chart. Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  9:22:52 PM
QQQ $34.21 +0.97% ... last tick in after-hours is $34.24, and that's right were I profiled bullish short-term trade in QQQ today.

Not what I would consider and overly bullish response to HPQ's earnings as it relates to QQQ and broader tech, and with $NIKK currently showing modest gains, I get ready to go get a bite to eat, and feel like a bullish gunslinger that is running out of bullets with an important gunfight in the morning. (add this evening's Index Trader Wrap and NH/NL NASDAQ Breadth)

As such, will make these adjustments to QQQ bullish trade from $34.24....

Raise stop to $33.94 (based on today's intra-day trade) and will keep bullish target $34.57.

Tomorrow morning, will be quick to take a new 5-MRT and see how these intra-day levels line up. Expect some further fine tuning after opening 5-minutes.

I'm also making notes as to today's (Wednesday's) 15:05 test where the BIX.X made an intra-day high, but the QQQ attempt fell short at $34.39 from its prior intra-day high of $34.40. While that's only a penny, if you've been following long enough, sometimes, that's all it takes.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  9:11:57 PM
Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 9,687.79 +0.76% Link ... higher by 73 points here. Session low/high has been 9,685.49 and 9,777.99.

So far, not enough for a 3-box reversal, and not much of a bullish response to today's yen weakness versus the dollar.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/19/20,  9:07:30 PM
S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) Daily Interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY retracement. Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/19/20,  8:21:19 PM
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