Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
  James Brown   11/24/20,  4:20:14 PM
Just a couple of observations...

OI call play UTX closed above the $85 mark.

OI call play HOV added more than 5% to close above the $90 level.

I'm surprised to see that OI puts GDW and NFLX did not get stopped out. These were two stocks that I would have expected to soar on such a broad-based rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  4:11:00 PM
The OEX did break minimally out of the orthodox broadening formation, but did stay beneath 521. That minimal upside break also pushed it above the 60-minute 130-pma, an average with which it did battle all day. Now we'll have to see if tomorrow's trading emulates the pattern from 11/04, or if the OEX will this time find support from those just-crossed 60-minute 100/130-pma's. One key might be the open. If the OEX were to open below those averages, that might be a clue that the 11/04 pattern might be copied and the OEX might roll over and head back to test the 60-minute 21-pma.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:52:24 PM
Indecision doesn't exist only on 30-minute OEX charts, with the OEX being pinned to a certain level as bulls and bears battle it out. As I scan weekly charts of individual stocks today, I'm noticing a lot of symmetrical triangles, with final direction as yet undetermined.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:43:33 PM
I don't think I've seen a longer or straighter line of small-bodied 30-minute candles marching across the OEX chart in a while. We've had many periods of no movement lately, but this really is no movement. Those candles are marching across right at/above support at 517.50-518. The oscillators had been moving up while the prices stabilized--a sign that weakness might ensue when they turned down again--but then they flattened without turning down. The 30-minute MACD lines did make a bearish cross, but now flatten. If oscillators should trend down while prices stay stable, especially if they slant down in a shallow angle as they sometimes do, that may portend that prices will turn up again. It's all a grab bag right now, but all we can say is that those broadening formations are usually termed bearish, but they haven't always performed so this year.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:38:29 PM
Shares of Mid-Atlantic Medical (MME) have extended their gains to break the $60 resistance level and are very close to new highs. MME's MACD has just crossed into a new bullish signal.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:36:38 PM
well knowing what I know about Texas girls.. I'm not surprised their weddings top the national average. *grin*

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:35:48 PM
I thought costs in Texas were cheap, and we sure paid more than that for one wedding with less than 200 guests and about that for another wedding with many fewer guests.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:34:33 PM
I'm thinking parents should split the difference with their kids. Give them $10K and tell them to elope.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:33:33 PM
Here's the broadening formation to which I've referred several times today, as seen on the OEX 60-minute chart, with the similar formation from 11/03 also outlined: Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/24/20,  3:33:20 PM
Jane, I am thinking arranged marriages are a better deal every day.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/24/20,  3:32:14 PM
Same here Jim (post 15:29)- I have two children 27 and 29 (one of each) and all I have is grand kitties.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:31:33 PM
For the curious... The "Georgia Bride" website published an article on wedding costs. They said:

"What is the average wedding budget? It depends on who you ask.

According to Bride's Magazine, in 2000 the average wedding cost was $18,000.

According to Modern Bride, the average wedding cost in 2000 was $18,300.

The Wedding Pages says the average wedding costs $22,500.

Finally, the Association of Bridal Consultants reports $16,500 as the average cost."

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:30:56 PM
Yeah... I'm not feeling any pressure here. *grin*

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/24/20,  3:29:36 PM
After reading the previous comments if anyone has any daughters you want to get rid of I could use a couple. I would trade a lifetime OIN subscription for each. My wife has adopted all the kids on our street in lieu of grandkids. With four children (adults now between 24-32) all we have is grand dogs. (grin)

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:24:19 PM
Hmm... I recently heard that the average wedding in this country cost about $20,000 but that sounded low to me.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:22:33 PM
Tack on a $35,000 wedding to that cost per child, James, at a minimum, as many girls' parents still end up paying for the wedding. Add $2,000-5,000/year if they compete in a sport or are dancers or cheerleaders, as their schools rarely pay for the out-of-school classes needed to participate in such activities as they do for boys' sports. Of course, these days, many parents of both boys and girls are spending lots each summer for summer sports camps, as it's no longer good enough to just be minimally good at something and play pick-up games in the summer. For girls or boys, any hope of participating on the school tennis team or cheerleading squad means you better start early--by eight or nine--with costly private classes.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:17:34 PM

Personally, I'd be very curious to know how much more it costs to raise a girl than it does a boy. I bet the difference would be significant. Of course I'm just assuming that it costs more to raise a girl. I could be wrong. Can anyone shed some light on this?

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:16:11 PM

You may be "wealthier" than you know...

One CNN article is suggesting that the new status symbol for wealth is having lots of children. Everyone knows how expensive it is to raise a kid these days but CNN.com has uncovered a new trend. There seems to be a growing number of affluent households having more children.

The CNN reporter Leslie Geary says that back in the 1960s the average family had 2.4 kids. Today the average family has 1.8 kids.

Evidently, there's been surge of well-to-do families having 3 or 4 children. That's quite an investment. According to the US Dept of Agriculture the cost of raising a child to age 17 starts at $127,500.

Household Pre-tax income -- Avg. Cost per child.
less than $39.700 ........... $127.500
$39,700 to $66,900 .......... $173.880
$66,900 or more ............. $254,400

Nothing compares to the intangible benefits of raising a child but this Thanksgiving you may find yourself surrounded by a virtual fortune - in more ways than one.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  3:03:18 PM
Reader Question: What's your bias for the closing?

Response: I'm thinking that the markets get supported into the close, perhaps, without climbing any higher than 521 and probably not climbing that high but rather staying within the broadening formation or making a minimal upside breakout. I'm thinking that tomorrow morning might be dicey. I'm reduced to counting candles on the 11/03 broadening formation, seeing that day's correlations to today's trading pattern. That day, the broadening formation held throughout the day, but a decline began the next day. That decline began with a volatile first hour's trading, with the 100/130-pma's being tested, the OEX bouncing and reaching a high that was higher than the open, and then with the OEX printing a number of small-bodied candles near the day's low as it clung to a key average. The next day began a steeper decline. So, if the OEX followed that 11/03 pattern, prices might be held fairly steady into the close, then dip toward the 60-minute 21-pma tomorrow morning, perhaps bouncing from or holding near that level through the rest of tomorrow. That would set up a possible decline if the pattern continued to follow the pattern of the third day after 11/03, but that may be stretching things. There are some differences, too. I think MACD may have been rising but from below signal on the morning of 11/03 (I can't be sure because Q-charts cut off the previous days' prices and the oscillators aren't completely clear until beyond 11/03), and the MACD was rising and moved above signal this morning.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:58:12 PM
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $55.08 +5.43% Link ... Jeff:

I'm following the stock for a while. Could you please give me you technical analysis thoughts on that. Im holding still the call from the 50th. Should I sell or hold ?

I'm not sure what expiration you continue to hold, but if past December, would continue to hold. I view today's 52-week high along with some participation from Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $30.44 +5.3% Link above the $30.00 level as further signs of bullishness.

If holding a December $50 call, might look to take profits here, but would want continued exposure to stock and could roll the call option out to an April $55 call (GQRDK) offered $5.70, or April $60 call (GQRDL) offered $3.60.

Based on your original entry, strategy may have trader taking original risk capital off the table, but rolling profits out to greater length of time.

Disclosure: I continue to hold prior bullish profiled GRMN Jan $50 calls (GRQAJ) from $1.70.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  2:57:37 PM
Right down there with the BubbleYum soda I tried once in Florida, James.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:56:46 PM

Can you say, "yuck!"

Turkey & Gravy soda on the table for Thanksgiving

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Thanksgiving dinner with all the fixings: cranberry sauce, stuffing and turkey gravy-flavored soda. Yummy?

In the latest food fad to emerge in the United States, Seattle specialty soda maker Jones Soda Co. scored a hit this week with the introduction of a limited batch of Turkey & Gravy-flavored soda.

The tan-colored soda sold out in just three hours after an initial batch was put up for sale on the company's Web site Friday, a spokeswoman for the company said.

Proceeds from the online sale, where two bottles of Turkey & Gravy soda sold for about $11, were donated to Toys for Tots, a children's charity. Local retailers will start selling the soda Monday.

Jones Soda said it would be up to local stores to set prices for Turkey & Gravy soda. Other sodas from the company typically cost $1 to $1.50. This isn't the company's first experiment in exotic carbonation. Fish tacos and ham flavors have also been offered as promotional soda flavors.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  2:54:42 PM
Linda, what do you think makes it orthodox?

The short cycle upphase continues along its very gentle positive slope, now entering overbought territory. It's a really tempting area for shorts, except for the potential for closing/afterhours/open news-noise to complicate matters and run stops. The short cycles are all pointed more or less upward, the 30 minute oscillators are pointed south, and the daily is trying to give a buy signal. The put to call ratio has been flat all day in neutral territory, and the dollar's rally today is the big news. It doesn't look bullish or bearish to me, and I guess this is why the market has been pegged in never-never land for this many hours.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:49:58 PM
For those readers in the Washington D.C. area, the newswires are reporting that Sniper suspect John Allen Muhammad has been handed the death sentence.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:49:56 PM
The type of megaphone or orthodox broadening formation that we're seeing on the OEX 60-minute chart usually is a topping formation, but we've all mentioned many times since March that some of these bearish formations don't break as expected. I'm spending the day today researching small-cap stocks, and I just looked at one that broke to the upside out of a similar orthodox broadening formation, proving that the strange behavior persists lately. That stock was CASY, just breaking out of a broadening formation today. I'm not suggesting a play in this stock, as my search right now is limited to finding those value small caps with average daily volume over 200,000 and in long-term basing formations that look ready to break to the upside. CASY doesn't fit those parameters and I haven't looked closely at the chart, but did note that upside break of a broadening formation that formed at the top of a rally. Just as Jonathan watches GE to gauge underlying market strength or weakness, I like to see what's happening in individual stocks, too. For example, as I was scanning stocks late last week, I noticed many individual tech stocks looking as if they were just breaking out of bull flags or about to do so, confirming my feeling that there could be a bounce today if there were no terrorists events against U.S. interests this weekend. Now I wish I saw something that confirmed my impression from earlier today that the 518 vicinity might be a short-term top for the OEX, and that broadening formation might be indicating that top.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:46:02 PM

There are 20 stocks in the GHA hardware index.
I'm going to list the top five components.

Symbol - Name ----------- Weighting (in the index)

NTAP - Network Appliance . 11.17%
AAPL - Apple Computer Inc . 9.78%
EMC - EMC Corp ............ 9.70%
DELL - DELL Inc. .......... 8.27%
IBM - Intl Business Mach. . 7.85%

Now we'll see who's contributing the most to the GHA's 3.14% gain today:

Symbol - % gain today
_____________________
NTAP +6.66%
AAPL +3.70%
EMC +1.98%
DELL +2.00%
IBM +1.02%

All of the above components, while higher today, remain below short-term price resistance as well as technical resistance with their 50-dma still hovering directly overhead.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:31:15 PM
Keith's Elliott Wave Update from 14:25:03 .... his SPX 1,047-1,058 range very similar to WEEKLY R1 1,046.69 and WEEKLY R2 1,058.09 levels.

While I might have envisioned some trending bullishness to 1,050 this week with Thanksgiving holiday, I wasn't expecting a 14-point SPX gain in one day, so early in the week.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:28:25 PM

A note on the 2.73% jump in the BTK biotech index today. Biotechs are certainly enjoying the broad-based rally but two things might concern me if I was bullish on the group. First, the BTK has not yet broken its trend of lower highs that stretches from mid-September through the present. Not only does the BTK have this descending trendline to overcome but there is a lot of resistance in the 470 region and its simple 50-dma still hovers overhead. Second, its biggest component, AMGN, is not participating in the rally. Shares of AMGN are actually down 1.33% today and trading under the $60 level. The last couple of weeks could be forming a bear flag consolidation pattern for the stock. These patterns usually break lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:26:06 PM
In reference to Jane's 14:21 post (perhaps on the futures side), I'm using today to research small caps that might not yet have participated in the small-cap rally, but might look ready to do so. Pring notes that small cap stocks tend to outperform at the turn of the year, but I don't want to pick out some small cap that's already gone from $2.00-$16.00 since March. So far, I'm finding a lot of those and a couple that appear to be ready to break out of long bases, but don't have enough daily volume to interest me. Days like this don't have to be boring and nonproductive.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  2:23:15 PM
Goldman Sachs (GS) $94.88 +2.05% ... Late Thursday evening, and in Friday morning's MM (see 02:23:15 AM EST) Link , had noted that GS traded its 60-minute interval head/should top objective of $92.15. Stock firmed up on Friday and back higher today. After some short-term success from the bearish side, now monitor for resistance at $95.38, and will look for another bearish entry should GS trade $95.38, then break back below $94.75. Here's updated 60-minute chart of GS. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:19:52 PM
Take a look at today's OEX 60-minute chart formation and then compare it to that of 11/03. They look eerily similar, don't they, both with a zoom up and then a megaphone or orthodox broadening formation forming at the top of the rise? Unfortunately, Q-charts has lopped off my intraday charts previous to 11/03, so I can't post a comparison that would include the oscillators since their configurations are not showing up for 11/03. Sure makes me think more about that bearish position.

However, I have an appointment that will keep me away from the markets most or all of tomorrow afternoon. Although stops are great, I also want to watch what's developing minute-by-minute when I'm in an OEX position. Since we're now so late into today's trading day and since I'll miss half of tomorrow's, I will not be entering a personal trade and will not be calling an official Swing Trade at this point, either. I had hoped something would develop earlier in the day.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:18:41 PM

The DJUSHB home construction index (+3.57%) has broken out to new all time highs above the 600 level. We're see similar bullish breakouts in the list below with several breaking above round-number support-resistance levels.

(PHM) Pulte Homes ... $94.99 +4.64%
(RYL) Ryland Homes ... $90.89 +4.50%
(HOV) Hovnanian Enter. $90.54 +4.67%
(CTX) Centex Corp. . $107.47 +3.96%
(TOL) Toll Brothers .. $41.18 +6.52%
(DHI) D R Horton ..... $43.48 +2.98%
(LEN) Lennar Corp .... $96.11 +3.01%

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  2:08:49 PM

The XAL airlines index remains strong with very little pull back from its morning highs. Contributing to the move...

(DAL) Delta Airlines ...... +4.81%
(NWAC) Northwest Airlines . +3.40%
(LUV) Southwest Airlines .. +3.33%
(AMR) American Airlines ... +2.59%
(CAL) Continental Airlines: +1.47%
(JLUB) JetBlue Airways .... +1.94%

Big news today is Delta's Chairman and CEO said he will step down on January 1st after six years of leading the 3rd largest airliner.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:05:09 PM
The OEX 60-minute chart shows bearish divergence between the momentum indicator (lower high) and the price (higher 60-minute high).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  2:00:41 PM
Reader Comment: Nobody has said much about this morning's monster GAP. Under normal circumstances wouldn't it just be begging to be filled?

Response: That's a good point. Yes, under normal circumstances, we'd be talking about gap fills, but we have to get to a 50% retracement of the day's range before we start thinking about the gap fills. Other than on the COMPX, the gaps may not be that big in proportion, though, but the COMPX's sure was. I see the 30-minute 21-pma now rising toward the top of the gap, so the first expectation now might be that the COMPX would find support near the top of that gap and at that moving average if it should now decline to test gap support.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  1:55:32 PM
Shares of Network Appliance (NTAP) are trading near their high for the day, up 6.3%. The stock has filled the gap from last week and broken above the $23 level but remains under its simple 50-dma and tougher resistance at $24.00.

I don't see any news to power the move but NTAP is lending a lot of strength to the GHA hardware index, currently up 3.04%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:49:31 PM
The OEX has come up underneath the broken support from the five-minute triangle, and is testing that broken support to see if it now holds as resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  1:42:14 PM
You've got me, Linda. I'm still a fan of the General, which is giving me the news I want here as it continues to print new lows.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:40:22 PM
Could MMM be taking over GE's leadership, Jonathan? MMM moves up today, climbing above its 10- and 21-dma's, adding more than a point over Friday's close. At $78.90 as I type, down from its $79.17 HOD, it's nearing a test of its 11/14 high of $80.16. If it is taking over leadership for the wounded GE, we're nearing either a breakout point or a rollover point for this stock, too. Stochastics and RSI look bullish, but MACD is difficult to decipher, flattening in what had been a bearish roll.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/24/20,  1:39:07 PM
Jonathan, my family lives in Vancouver B.C. and when I was talking to my sister the other day she said it was raining and was so happy about it for Vancouver as had one of the driest summers on record. It was so funny hearing someone from Vancouver saying they were happy about rain.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  1:33:09 PM
In Vancouver, B.C., on the Wet Coast, there's a saying to the effect that if you don't like the weather, just wait 10 minutes and it'll change. As Jim has just noted, stops have just been run, now in both directions, still with no clear direction. The rollover from the short cycles has reached the 15 minute oscillators, but the 30 still will not crack. The daily is still trying for its all-important buy signal. This remains a perfect recipe for chop- we've just seen the program 'bots get into, with no success either.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:28:13 PM
That last pop represented an upside breakout of the five-minute triangle I showed earlier today, but that upside breakout was quickly rejected. As I mentioned earlier, we see false breakouts and breakdowns occur during low volume, and especially during the lunchtime lull. So was the upside breakout real and this downward push the false signal, or is it the opposite? Having expected a retracement all day, I'm tending toward thinking the upside break was a false signal, but that doesn't mean I'm comfortable with the idea that there's a lot of downside either. I would expect the OEX to find support near 516 and then again just above 514, a 50% retracement of the day's rally.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:23:03 PM
One reason I like using proportions when watching adv/dec figures rather than the subtraction method used on Q-charts advdecv is that the subtraction method is going to show a decrease if volume drops off, even if the proportion of advancing to declining issues remains the same. Mostly, lately, I've been watching the Q-charts advdecv because it's not delayed and gives me a quicker read. However, today I compared the adv/dec figures over the last hour, and they do confirm a moderate decrease in bullishness, but only a moderate one. In the last hour, the proportate adv/dec has also declined, from advancers being three times the number of decliners on the NYSE, to advancers now being a slightly more moderate 2.4 times decliners. On the Nasdaq, the last hour has seen a change from 2.6 times more advancers than decliners, to being 2.2 times. These are moderate changes, but should that trajectory continue, short-term bulls should be watchful.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  1:01:44 PM
The 30-minute MACD is flattening, threatening to roll lower. Momentum still turns up, though, although RSI had flattened and now does begin to turn down.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  12:47:42 PM
Here's a five-minute pattern we can begin watching for either a breakdown or a breakout: Link One caution exists, though: we're reaching the lunchtime lull, and the decreased volume often leads to false breakouts or breakdowns.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  12:34:48 PM
My struggle has been the opposite of Jim's, as in his 12:10 post. Early this morning, my pre-market impression was that 518 would have been either been the top of the advance or near the top of the advance, with this being a good area to consider for a bearish entry on the expectations of a rollover. That may still be a good idea, as my pre-market impressions tend to be sounder than my in-the-heat-of-the-action ones, but I've been struggling to force myself to consider such a play and can't do it. The volume patterns were too strong, and an upside breakout could see a zoom up to match the one this morning: a scary thought if considering a bearish play.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  12:13:37 PM
It looks as if a lot of support is gathering beneath the OEX's current position, down to about 517.40. Of course, that gives a break through that level even more significance, but there's plenty of support lined up beneath that, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  11:52:23 AM
Goldbugs, here's a link to the new Gold Trakrs. I haven't had time to read it yet- just came across the Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:51:36 AM
Earlier this morning, I mentioned that I expected either the 516 or 518 zones would likely stall the OEX advance. The OEX has been stalled at the highest of those two, but it's not showing appreciable weakness, either. Early this morning, I would have told you that I thought that if the OEX reached 518, it might be worth a try to enter a bearish position with a stop up near 521. With the number of advancers almost 3000 more than the number of decliners and with this morning's swift advances, that's a much more difficult proposition than it seemed this morning, however. I'm seeing the 1.35% envelopes surrounding the 30-minute and 60-minute 21-pma's expand to 520.22 and 521.74, for example. However silly it might sound, however, the OEX must maintain levels above its 60-minute 130-pma, currently at 518.27, before it can try for those higher levels. So far, it hasn't been able to do so, but neither has it retraced much of its flagpole climb. We saw such a flagpole climb (although not of quite the same magnitude) on 11/19, with the two following 60-minute candles beginning a potential reversal signal, but then with the OEX climbing above the 21-pma, the average that had stalled it that day. Still, I'm thinking continued stall at least, if not a significant retracement. Even a normal 50% retracement of that flagpole represents a 3-point decline, though.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:32:24 AM
I mentioned during the last 30-minutes that OEX candles often temporarily moved outside the 30-minute Donchian channels (20,2) but seldom closed outside those channels. That was true this time, too, with the last 30-minute candle closing beneath the upper boundary of the Donchian channel after having pierced it during the 30-minute period. That channel's upper boundary is now at 518.17.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   11/24/20,  11:32:15 AM
MRVL $38.58 (-0.32)

Hello Mark, Please take a look at MRVL for me.

Sure thing! Glad to offer my 2-bits. I've traded this one bullish in the recent past, and I have to say my one word assessment of the stock here would be "Yuck!" After weakening throughout much of October and November, MRVL finally broke below its 5-month rising channel last week. That plunge came to a halt at $38 support, which is still holding up, thanks in part to the support of the lower B-Band. I certainly wouldn't want to be short here though, because even if the $38 level gives way, there's still strong support at $36 to contend with.

So how about the long side? No Thankyou! Looming overhead is very strong resistance near $42. This is the site of the bottom of the broken channel, the 10-dma, which is crossing down through the 50-dma, and the site of some significant historical resistance. Simply put, I wouldn't want to be long or short the stock right now, as there's not enough room in either direction to justify the risk of having a position -- at least for me. But if forced to choose, I'd rather be short than long, especially with a fresh PnF Sell signal that provides a bearish price target of $29.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   11/24/20,  11:31:46 AM
MRVL $38.58 (-0.32)

Hello Mark, Please take a look at MRVL for me.

Sure thing! Glad to offer my 2-bits. I've traded this one bullish in the recent past, and I have to say my one word assessment of the stock here would be "Yuck!" After weakening throughout much of October and November, MRVL finally broke below its 5-month rising channel last week. That plunge came to a halt at $38 support, which is still holding up, thanks in part to the support of the lower B-Band. I certainly wouldn't want to be short here though, because even if the $38 level gives way, there's still strong support at $36 to contend with.

So how about the long side? No Thankyou! Looming overhead is very strong resistance near $42. This is the site of the bottom of the broken channel, the 10-dma, which is crossing down through the 50-dma, and the site of some significant historical resistance. Simply put, I wouldn't want to be long or short the stock right now, as there's not enough room in either direction to justify the risk of having a position -- at least for me. But if forced to choose, I'd rather be short than long, especially with a fresh PnF Sell signal that provides a bearish price target of $29.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:20:11 AM
The OEX has currently broken above the 60-minute 130-pma at 518.29, the last of the grouped 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's. If the OEX can now maintain those averages, this change and the upturn in the daily RSI and 21(3)3 stochastics would change the outlook to a buy-the-dip outlook. However, if the OEX were now to fall back through the 60-minute 100-pma at 517.72 after having touched those averages, the picture is somewhat clouded, with the short-term outlook switching to one of weakness that fights against budding longer-term (daily) strength. I continue to believe this is a dangerous spot for bulls, but am not completely convinced that the OEX is going to see much weakness, either. I would now expect it to find at least light support in the 516-517 area.

 
 
  Mark Phillips   11/24/20,  11:13:21 AM
DGX $72.01 (+0.41) Traders that have been waiting for DGX to finish its consolidation and continue its upward climb should be paying attention this morning. After surging to an early high of $72.25, the stock is holding near the $72 level, right at the top of that consolidation pattern. This should be a prelude to more upside action ahead, and we'll be watching for a run to the $75-76 area.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  11:06:17 AM
The OEX will soon test the 518.82 high from 11/18, the top of its recent trading zone. It's already breaking above the descending trendline formed off that 11/18 high. Studying the 30-minute Donchian channels shows that this is a dangerous point for the OEX. It's moving outside the channel, with the top currently at 518.05. It's amazing, however, to see how many 30-minute candles temporarily move outside that channel, only to close back inside it, so that makes this point perilous, as it could be the turnaround point. As I type, the advdecv continues to turn down as the OEX climbs, continuing the divergence seen earlier. This may or may not be important, however, as that advdecv was too strong to continue at that level too long.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:49:31 AM
Like Jane, I'm watching for divergences today, and I'm seeing one now in the OEX and the advdecv chart. The OEX is moving to a new day's high, but the advdecv is not. I don't know if this will turn out to be significant, but as I type, the OEX is turning down slightly.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:47:18 AM
Another put to call reading at .65, while the VXO has tanked, -1.68 to 18.21.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:46:23 AM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $30.00 +3.66% Link .... stock starting to see some volume here. Earlier this morning stock jumped quickly to $30.00.

Have tried to trade this one intra-day, but seems that after I post trailing stop, stock suspiciously comes down to trigger the stop, then move back higher. Since stock is thinner traded, will not profile an intra-day trade, but I've set up stock with stacked 5-MRT and 5-minute close above $30.12 could have intra-day $30.76 potential.

PnF notes have today's trade at $30 now negating prior bearish vertical count and bullish vertical count building to $49.

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $54.57 +4.45% Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:40:36 AM
We're in a real DMZ on the OEX: between the 30-minute 100/130-pma's and their 60-minute counterparts. As has been true the last several months, the OEX overshot the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, but was stopped by the 60-minute versions, or at least by the 60-minute 130-pma. It's still only a few cents below the 60-minute 100-pma. Ordinarily, a touch of those averages and then a move below the 60-minute 100-pma would be a sign to enter a bearish play, especially since the OEX is also turning back from its test of the top of the recent trading range, but with the support of the 30-minute versions just below, I'm not sure that's a good idea today.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:36:48 AM
QQQ $34.73 +1.48% .... Strong opening hour has QQQ achieving BLUE #5 early. Might look for pullback to $34.49 to find strong intr-day support with dollar showing strength. Here's QQQ with 5-MRT for intra-day traders. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:31:43 AM
Here's where the OEX is now, as seen on a 60-minute chart: Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:26:09 AM
Correction on the Fed's open market ops for today- it was 4.75B added today, and not 3B as I mistakenly reported.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  10:25:39 AM
Current OI call play United Technology (UTX) is also bouncing higher and is trying to break above the $85 level.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  10:24:21 AM
Current OI call play Progressive (PGR) is finally seeing a bounce from its sharp bull flag consolidation pattern. This could be an entry point for new bullish positions.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  10:22:19 AM
Shares of Mylan Labs (MYL) are up more than 4% on news that the FDA has approved their generic version of the Duragesic patch to control pain.

Duragesic is one of Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) biggest products with over $1 billion in annual sales. (Reuters).

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:19:43 AM
The OEX certainly did climb high enough for us to benefit from an options play. Now it tests the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, and we'll see the real strength behind this rally.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  10:17:43 AM
Video game makers are getting the cold shoulder from analysts this morning. Piper Jaffray cut Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) to a "market perform" and WR Hambrecht cut TTWO to a "hold".

Electronic Arts (ERTS) has been downgraded to a "sell" by WR Hambrecht and cut to a "market perform" by Piper.

The word is that Hambrecht thinks several video game makers will fail to meet their targets and we could see some post-Thanksgiving earnings warnings as sales fail to hit their mark.

I'm a little surprised by the downgrade. With expectations up strongly for the best Holiday Shopping season in four years you know video games are always near the top of the wish list for kids. I guess Hambrecht is trying to say expectations for video game sales are TOO strong right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  10:16:14 AM
QQQ $34.76 +1.54% .... strong move early this week above both the WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivot. May have a Thanksgiving bounce to $35.25 in it. Here's QQQ with new WEEKLY and current MONTHLY pivot analysis retracement. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:12:51 AM
Dec gold is at a session low here, -4.80 at 391.30. Ten year notes are up a bit, now down only .37%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:11:44 AM
The OEX now looks extremely overbought on a five-minute basis, and should retrace, although there's no guarantee that it will do so. On the Keltner charts, strongest support now gathers down near 514.70-515, with 513 providing support below that.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  10:09:23 AM
Contributing to the strength in the DJUSHB is an upgrade for Pulte Homes (PHM). Wachovia raised PHM to an "out perform" this morning claiming PHM is the most under valued in the group. They also downgraded KBH to "market perform" on valuation.

Current OI call play HOV is up 3.38% to $89.43 and is fast approaching the $90.00 resistance level.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  10:06:07 AM
The put to call ratio is neutral at .65, VXO 19.89.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:05:59 AM
Since November 17, the OEX has been trading in a range roughly from 512 to 518, with the OEX breaking through the bottom of that range temporarily on Friday. A move much above 518 would then be an upside breakout of that range, but those in bullish should be careful as the top of that range approaches, as that's a prime spot for a rollover.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  10:02:35 AM
The OEX has just moved above the bullish #2 on the 2MRT system I'm watching today. That also puts it above the 30-minute 100-pma, headed up to test the 130-pma.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  9:58:32 AM
Taking an early lead in this morning's broad-based rally are several sectors...

The DJUSHB Homebuilders index is up 2.13%.
The DDX disk drive index is up 2.7%
The INX Internet index is up 1.97%
The NWX Networking index is up 1.83%
The GHA hardware index is up 1.77%

XAL airlines index is up 1.7%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:57:34 AM
If you're reading both the futures and the options side of the Monitor, you'll note that Jim and I shared similar views about what might happen today, but he plunged in and I didn't. Why? As I stated earlier, that had a lot to do with this being the Monday morning after options expiration. Futures aren't inflated on a Monday morning after options expiration, and options sometimes are. While I felt fairly confident of a move up to 516, I didn't feel confident of anything a cent beyond that, and wasn't sure we could get in an out fast enough, with enough inflation in the price of our calls, to outweigh the risk that I was wrong.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:54:15 AM
S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,043.98 +0.85% .... here is SPX with WEEKLY/MONTHLY pivot retracement. For a seasonally bullish week, would view weekly support as 1,033 and resistance of 1,051. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  9:53:34 AM
Two days after announcing Q3 earnings that merely matched estimates Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) has been downgraded twice. CIBC cut KKD to "sector perform" and BB&T cut KKD to a "hold".

The stock initially bounced from its 200-dma on its earnings news but failed at its simple 50-dma still overhead. Today's downgrade doesn't help. The stock is failing at the $41 level this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:52:43 AM
Despite this morning's strong assault on higher prices, it wouldn't be my expectation that the OEX could just zoom past the gathered 30-minute and 60-minute 100/130-pma's. I would expect the OEX to have to fall back to establish support, regrouping, before making a final assault. One problem, though, in that assumption is that those averages are not as tightly gathered as they were at the end of last week. I've found that when averages or levels of historical resistance clump together, it's harder for prices to climb above them, but when they're strung out separately, prices sometimes have an easier time broaching them one by one.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  9:49:23 AM
The Fed has added a 3B overnight repo, which is a net add. Friday's 4-day repo expires tomorrow along with today's.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  9:48:44 AM
Making some headlines this morning is Tenet Healthcare (THC). Their People's Health Network unit has received two new subpoenas from Federal investigators.

The stock does not appear to be trading yet... but that could be my Qcharts not updating. :-|

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:48:33 AM
The OEX has not yet moved above the 516.05 level that marks the bullish #2 using the 2MRT system, but it looks as if it's making another assault on that level. Let's see what happens. Using that system, we're still in a neutral zone.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:43:47 AM
The OEX now butts up against the 30-minute 100-pma, currently at 516.13. That 100-pma lies beneath the 130-pma, indicating a bearish cast to those moving averages, but MA crosses can come late. In other words, the trading pattern can become bullish before those moving averages confirm with a bullish cross. Still, this is one reason for my caution. Those averages and their 60-minute counterparts now spread out between the 516-518.35 levels, each one lying in wait to ambush the bounce.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  9:40:39 AM
Metals are down today, gold -3 at 393, silver -.08 at 5.215, with the HUI -4.1 at 231.86 and XAU -1.74 at 102.72.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:38:17 AM
The OEX first five-minute and three-minute ranges were so big that I'm going to watch the OEX based on a 2MRT. The first two minutes saw a high of 514.17 and a low of 512.28.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/24/20,  9:38:16 AM
GE printing a low of the day here at 28.70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:37:04 AM
The OEX first five minutes saw a high of 515.28 and a low of 512.28, with a midpoint at 513.78. The OEX obviously trades above that midpoint, but the first real retracement should begin in a few minutes and we'll see more at that time. I'm more and more concerned about entering a bullish play at this level, because this first five-minute drive took the OEX right underneath the strong resistance that will soon begin.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:34:57 AM
I don't want to make a move this early on a Monday morning after opex week because of concerns associated with options premium. Before considering a bullish play, I would like to see the markets come back down to successfully test broken resistance, establishing it as support, and then begin to move up with volume patterns remaining supportive, with options premiums deflating a bit, too. That may mean we miss another good play, but I don't want to be in a situation in which the OEX moves our direction but options premiums don't, or at least not enough to pay for the spread and commissions. It can and does happen.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:34:36 AM
Pivot Matrix for today and this week at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  9:15:52 AM
I hoped that I'd open Q-charts this morning and find the intraday data restored for early November, but instead I find the data from week before last restored, but all of October's data missing. That handicaps my decisions.

I was reading this weekend that prior to 1987, the nearest decades had always seen bullish trading patterns for the day before Thanksgiving, through to the Monday after Thanksgiving, but those patterns have been somewhat mixed since 1987. Some counsel that it's still a good idea to buy into any weakness on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the following Monday, but I don't know if I'd feel comfortable doing that in the current geopolitical climate, especially when holding options from Wednesday through Monday already mean that we're losing considerable time premium.

Still, we enter this week with the OEX daily candle from Friday showing a potential reversal signal, as discussed late Friday in the Monitor. There's the potential for a bounce, then, based both on that daily candle, some daily oscillators that have shown tentative bullish crosses, a 30-minute MACD that's already turning up from below signal, and the historical tendencies of this week. Three problems exist, however. One is that this is the Monday after opex week, and options bought at the open this morning might still be inflated, needing guaranteed big moves to inflate those options further. The second is that resistance gathers rather thickly beginning about 516-518.60, and exists even lower, near 512.60-513 and again at 514. I'm not sure whether we'll see a bounce stopped nearer 516 or nearer 518, if such a bounce occurs, or if in a low-volume environment, it could even power above 518. The third problem is our old enemy: lack of volume. That lack of volume will make any trades risky as strange things happen in a low-volume scenario. We still might be considering a bullish play, but will have to be careful. I'm not sure whether I'll feel courageous enough under this environment to call an official Swing Trade play, but perhaps will suggest plays for those not averse to taking on these risks.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  9:12:21 AM
09:00 Update posted at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/24/20,  7:21:19 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei and many other Asian markets were closed for a holiday today, but the other Asian bourses were mixed. The biggest decline was seen in South Korea, with the Kospi closing down 2.22%. Some blamed geopolitical tensions for the poor performance in South Korea and other bourses that closed down. More U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq on Sunday, Japan mulls over a decision about sending its troops to Iraq, the Georgian president stepped down, and Turkey reportedly ordered anti-terrorism sermons to be given in its mosques. Articles this weekend discussed the possibility and implications of a global trade war, with tensions escalating over the tariffs the U.S. imposed on steel imports and Chinese textiles. However, a more direct impact that hit the banking and financial sectors particularly hard was the difficulty faced by credit-card company LG Card due to defaults on credit card debt. The company’s creditors agreed to a bailout to hold off bankruptcy.

Other Asian bourses closed as follows: The Taiwan Weighted fell 0.15%, but Singapore’s Straits Times gained 0.58%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed up 0.07% and China’s Shanghai Composite gained 3.12%.

Most European bourses gain this morning. This week, the EU finance ministers meet and will discuss the stability pact rule that requires that countries not exceed more than 3% of their GDP on deficit spending. Both Germany and France have exceeded that amount, with the German finance minister arguing this weekend that while he supported the stability pact, the country’s fragile recovery must be protected. He also proposed that all four of Germany’s major banks merge, offering incentives to help that happen. Although many question the likelihood of such a merger, the proposal sent banks higher. Currently, the DAX had gained 65.76 points or 1.81%, and trades at 3708.01. The CAC 40 has gained 32.82 points or 0.98%, to trade at 3398.94. The FTSE 100 has gained 48.90 points or 1.13%, to trade at 4367.90.

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:48:34 AM

Number Portability... the buzz over these two words could grow to an annoying pitch today now that the deadline (Monday, Nov. 24th) is here. Customers in the top 100 markets can take their phone number with them when they switch carriers. According to industry experts the switch from one carrier to another "should" only take 2 1/2 hours but no one knows how long it will really take and some estimate a few days to process all the red tape.

Wall Street analysts believe this will create a surge in customer churn and increase expenses for wireless providers. I doubt there will be any big price moves in wireless stocks due to the widely publicized deadline but don't quote me on it. (a few stocks to watch are: VZ, FON, PCS, AWE, T, and VOD)

 
 
  James Brown   11/24/20,  3:29:01 AM

...insert witty comment here...

Man Arrested for "Spam Rage" Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/22/20,  9:33:53 PM
The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in many cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

 
 

Market Monitor Archives