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  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  3:59:07 PM
Ah yes, the Acme rocket. In the meantime, Al Green's riding that bull... Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  3:57:48 PM
QQQ $35.14 -0.14% .... that takes the cake after tracking the QQQ all day today between $35.20 and $35.34.

Only tie for resistance in the QQQ and session high of $35.45, what session high in QQQ found as SPX traded a session high of 1,058.05, and just a frog's hair shy of its WEEKLY R2 of 1,058.09.

As I mark today's DAILY pivot levels that were traded, I do see where QQQ Daily R1 was $35.46. Considering today's tight range of trade, may have to carry this observation over to tomorrow's trade, as a DAILY R1 may indeed be a bullish QQQ upside, as trade is most likely going to be as anemic tomorrow with bond market closing early.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  3:57:17 PM
Jon, I think you've got it wrong. We have to wait until the rocket runs out of fuel first. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  3:54:10 PM
It's not the fastest moving stock but Simon Property Group (SPG) has a very very faithful trend of bouncing above its 50-dma and it is doing it again. The stock tends to stair step higher in $2 ranges.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  3:52:48 PM
Forest Labs (FRX) $54.25 +3.84% Link .... while writing today's 03:15 PM EST Update Link , stock triggered an upside alert I had set at $54.00. I was looking for stock to see a 3-box reversal back lower after generating the triple-top at $53.00, but today's trade at $54.00 now has me thinking FRX may not be a "dead money" stock until the end of the year as I had thought back in October.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  3:48:22 PM
Anthem (ATH) is producing a bullish breakout over the $70 mark and its simple 200-dma but has not yet conquered its 50-dma.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  3:39:37 PM
Thought of the afternoon: Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  3:33:30 PM
One retailer that bulls may want to play is Best Buy Co (BBY). At least one analyst has said it is the best way to play the holiday sales season. Today we're seeing the stock breakout above resistance at $60.00.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  3:27:18 PM
There are definitely pockets of strength in the financials today. Stocks like WFC, ONE and STI are just a few of the banking stocks hitting new highs.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  3:23:09 PM
Shares of biotech giant AMGN still look weak and have been contributing to weakness in the BTK today. Bears might want to keep an eye on it. A move under $58.65 or 57.50 could be triggers to launch new plays.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  3:18:49 PM
WYE ...the drug sector has been weak thanks to MRK, but WYE is also breaking down to new relative lows.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  3:09:23 PM
QQQ $35.42 +0.7% ... stopped from bearish day trade of $35.20.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  3:04:57 PM
QQQ $35.38 .... saw a 200,000 share cross at $35.42, was that "the trade" to mark the day's highs?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  3:03:12 PM
QQQ $35.39 x $35.40 ... every penny is a struggle.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  2:59:41 PM
Bonds closed ... 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) fell 4.1 basis points to finish with a YIELD of 4.186%.

SPX = 1,056.57 +0.42% .... QQQ = $35.38 +0.58%

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  2:55:34 PM
DHR, a current OI call, is also building on its recent bounce and is trading near its high for the day.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  2:54:17 PM
Bond market closes in 5-minutes. Stocks trying to press to session highs.

SPX = 1,056.00 +0.37% , QQQ = $35.33 +0.45%

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  2:50:35 PM
Shares of UTX have broken higher in the last 30 minutes after closing above the $85 level yesterday. This could be an entry point.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  2:45:23 PM
QQQ $35.24 +0.17% .... after test of BLUE #1 and $35.34, back to mid-point of today's range. Look for test of $35.20! (I can't wait for Friday's shortened trading day!) Q's may well stay stuck at the $35.25 level into the weekend session.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  2:31:05 PM
QQQ $35.29 +0.31% .... adjustment to day trade bearish trade ....

After multiple tests of $35.20, lower stop to $35.42 ...

Should now be short $35.20, target $34.91, stop $35.42.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  2:15:57 PM
Buy Program Prem. Alert .... SPX = 1,053.77 , QQQ = $35.23

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  2:01:40 PM
QQQ $35.28 +0.28% .... adjustment to day trade bearish trade from short $35.20, stop $35.51, target $34.76.

raising target to $34.91. IF QQQ trades $34.97 and RED #3, will lower stop to $35.07.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  1:41:19 PM
It's time for me to leave for my appointment. If I don't return before the close of trading today, bearish OEX traders should be watchful of the zones I pinpointed in my 13:37 post. This morning's trading reaffirmed the 520.80-521.25 level as resistance, so be watchful if those levels are approached again, as a break through those levels could initiate short covering, if there are shorts left, as Jonathan sometimes says. Have fun this afternoon.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  1:37:18 PM
It's soon going to be now-or-never time for the OEX. The 30-minute 21-pma has risen right underneath the current OEX position, currently at 518.66. There's soon going to be a collision between the OEX and that rising 21-pma. The 30-minute oscillators hint that the OEX could fall through that average, then to test the 30-minute 100/130-pma's, one just under and one just over 517, but oscillators don't always tell the truth in a low-volume environment. With the 60-minute 100/130-pma's both near 517.50, that zone would seem to be strong support for the OEX. If a pre-Thanksgiving bounce is going to come, it should come either from the current level or from that zone. If you're in bearish positions, be careful as those levels are approached.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  1:24:08 PM
The symmetrical triangle Jane points out on the ES is not quite as well defined on the OEX, but I certainly understand her "who knows" comment. Remember yesterday when we saw similar symmetrical triangles break first to the upside and then to the downside, right about this time, too?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  1:12:59 PM
Although for a long period, the day before Thanksgiving was positive, an article I read this weekend said that only about half have been positive since 1987, but that it was often still a good idea to buy into any weakness on Wednesday. I haven't confirmed that information for myself and am not suggesting that you buy dips today or tomorrow, but only suggesting that some retail buyers may be looking to do just that, contributing to the chop we've seen.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  1:04:05 PM
Volume patterns remain bullish, although the markets haven't been able to make marked progress yet, even with those bullish patterns. Adv:dec ratios as of a few minutes ago stood at 20:11 for the NYSE and 17:13 for the Nasdaq, showing slight deterioration from earlier ratios. Up volume was 2.2 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.3 times down volume on the Nasdaq, also a slight deterioration from earlier. New highs were a strong 473, with 17 new lows, and with total volume at 672 million shares on the NYSE and 1 billion on the Nasdaq.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  12:57:16 PM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.42 -0.18% .... I've set an intra-day downside alert at 91.29, and upside alert at 91.61. While 30-minute delayed feed on the dollar, this would be identical type of range to stocks.

I do think dollar bid from lows on UK warning of potential terrorist attack in Turkey, where some safe haven bid came into dollar on intra-day basis and had dx00y bouncing from 91.31 to 91.61.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  12:53:54 PM
QQQ intra-day 5-MRT update. Link

I could try and make this chart look bearish all I want, but fact is, QQQ trading tight range of $35.20-$35.34.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  12:44:25 PM
On the 30-minute OEX chart, MACD has not only made a bearish cross, but has already begun to roll down, with histogram levels lightly negative. Momentum has not committed to the downside, however, having only slightly flattened and not turned down. It may even be hooking up slightly again. The 1.35% envelope surrounding the 21-pma has risen, as has a similar 0.675% envelope, with those envelopes showing possible upside to 522.12 and 525.13. That MACD/momentum battle hints that it might be difficult to achieve that upside, but prices moving one direction or the other swiftly enough will resolve the divergences between those indicators. Currently, prices struggle at the 519.75 level that marks the midpoint of the decline this morning. They shouldn't move much above this level if the climb since then has been some sort of measured distribution pattern.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  12:29:25 PM
ICOS Corp. (ICOS) $44.98 -0.44% Link ... What are your thoughts on a bullish entry here?

The PnF chart of ICOS is bullish longer-term and currently shows a bullish vertical count of $60 in play. Note the "low pole warning" from $30 to $38 on PnF chart.

Will follow with bar chart and retracement setup....

Here's how I've set up a bar chart with retracement, and make some observation as to recent news and volume pattern. Link

Current thought is to make the stock prove a bullish trade entry with a move back above its 21-day SMA of $45.70, try to get some momentum behind it, then look for further bullishness on break to new highs.

ICOS is supposed to receive 50% of revenues from Cialis drug, which industry analysts project sale to be up to $1 billion per year.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  12:29:12 PM
Sector Leaders this afternoon:

XAU gold & silver index: +1.64%
OSX oil service index: +1.89%
INX Internet index: +1.10%
XAL airlines index: +1.06%

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  12:28:26 PM
The current five-minute pattern looks like a normal bear flag rising after the morning's drop from the high. The 50% retracement of that drop lies at about 519.75, so the OEX shouldn't get much above that level if this truly is a bear flag.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  12:26:41 PM
Another Internet stock struggling with resistance at its simple 50-dma is EBAY. The stock has rebounded strongly from above the $50 level and is also building on yesterday's gain of more than 5%. Today's move does appear to break the short-term trend of lower highs that began early November.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  12:24:22 PM
Amazon.com (AMZN) is building on yesterday's 5.6% gains with another 3.2% jump today. The high today was just under its simple 50-dma and the rally is stalling a bit.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  12:15:26 PM
I was hoping Jim would weigh in on the VIX/VXO discussion (see Jim's 12:05 post on the futures side). While I don't claim to be knowledgeable enough to know whether those "new paradigm" arguments are valid, I do remember similar arguments in 2000, and I do recognize bearish divergence when I see it. For quite a while, Jane, Mark, Jonathan, and I, along with others, have been pointing out bearish price/MACD divergences on daily or weekly charts, and those signal caution, too. Of course, if the OEX were to continue higher now and the daily oscillators continue their incipient upturns, too, then we've also had bullish divergence on some of those (higher price low and lower oscillators lows). That's not a given, though, and I actually halfway expect and have expected a downturn from below 521.25 or so, with those oscillators rolling down, too. We just can't count on that yet, as the bullish tenor may carry indices higher in a light-volume holiday environment.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  12:06:18 PM
WMT at a session low here, -.50%,

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  12:06:02 PM
I suspect that, if the past 12 months' current account / balance of trades data is any indication, the busy shopping malls so far this season demonstrate a boom in industrial production in China. The Fed seems to have fed quite a bubble over there.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  12:03:58 PM
James mentions Sears' statement this morning. Last year, Jim did an informal "parking lot" survey. I'd like to be the first contributor to that parking lot survey this year. I hate shopping and try to do as much online as possible, but was reduced to going to the mall this weekend. It was more crowded than any time during last year's holiday shopping season, and people were buying. We stood in line at the registers at department stores, and weaved in and out of people in the aisles. Perhaps this is a regional pattern only, as I live in the shopping capital of the world, I believe, but there was a marked difference from last year's pattern.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  11:56:29 AM
Reader Question: If this is the extreme complacency (VXO @16.63), what would less complacent be? Don't you think it's time to go negative? The call premium does not support my view, though.

Response: I haven't yet gotten my feet under me today after having been without charts, so it's difficult to sound intelligent on the OEX this morning. I think the extreme complacency is troubling, but it's difficult to time the markets based on that, as there's always not a direct correlation between the low VIX and an immediate downturn. There are some more experienced than I am who believe we could see a period when the VIX range is much lower than it's been in recent history and many who dispute that. I can't help remembering some of the same arguments bandied about in early 2000, so I'm not yet convinced of a new range, but I also study historical charts and note that there have certainly been times when markets stayed remarkably stable for a long while, with volatility lower than we've seen it. I don't claim to be knowledgeable enough to weigh one opinion against the other. So, I'm letting the low VIX alert me that bulls might be carrying the bulk of the risk, but not using it to time my trades. Back when the VIX was approaching 30 again, we were all nervous about bullish positions, too, but would have been in bad shape if we'd insisted on going short and staying short that whole time as the VIX dropped. I'd certainly be careful about any bullish positions, but I wouldn't want to step in front of a bullish freight train with short positions, either, until I saw corroborating evidence.

What level would be needed to alert us that the complacency was ending? It's difficult to know since the VIX was recently reconfigured, but I'd watch first for a move above 19.25-20.00, the site of historical S/R and also the site of a descending trendline from the August high. I'd watch then as the VIX approached 23.75, its 200-dma, and also the 25.00 level, the site of historical S/R. A breakout over 25 would be significant, I think.

One thing that worries me this week is the known historical bullish trading pattern. Even if institutions are using this week to distribute stock, as some have suggested, a lot of retail traders are going to be loathe to sell their bullish positions because they know that historical tendency. That might make for choppy trading.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  11:42:03 AM
Shares of Nordstrom (JWN), currently trading near four-year highs, remain unaffected from a fresh "sell" rating this morning. As a matter of fact the stock is outperforming the market averages and the RLX retail index, up 0.57%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  11:40:04 AM
What about next support for the OEX? One place to watch are the gathered moving averages on the 30-minute and 60-minute charts, with the 518.40 level being the first test of support, but with 517.40 being stronger support, as that's the location of the 60-minute 100/130-pma's. The five-minute Keltner bands also show strong support gathering near 517.75, with lesser support layered between the current OEX level and that level. Several daily moving averages also group in this zone. As with yesterday, then, that 517-518 zone is a zone to watch today.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  11:36:36 AM
The put to call ratio is up to .49, VXO 16.66.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  11:35:00 AM
For those of you who might have been waiting and without five-minute data yourselves, the OEX first five minutes spanned a low of 518.60 and a high of 519.37. We're beyond the early trading period when we need to watch the midpoint of that range for the earliest guide to strength or weakness. Earlier today, the OEX touched the bullish #3 on the 5MRT system, but it has now retreated to test the bullish #2 level, just over 520. I expect the 520.80-521.25 level to provide at least minimal resistance, and that appears to have been true of early trading this morning.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  11:30:24 AM
A helpful and experienced subscriber suggested that I switch to OEX.X on Q-charts. It's working. If any of you are sharing my earlier problem with Q-charts, try that switch.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  11:28:44 AM
Bank of America (BAC) has upgraded a few retailers to a "buy" just in time for the holiday season. Foot Locker (FL), Hibbett Sporting Goods (HIBB), and The Sport Authority (TSA).

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  11:28:38 AM
VXO now 16.64: "No worries, I use stops..." Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  11:25:58 AM
Sears (S) issued a press release this morning that said they expect online sales to up 40% more than last year (2002). Furthermore they're expecting their first $5 million day over this Thanksgiving weekend.

Check out the rising channel in Sears' stock. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  11:21:41 AM
I'm working with limited chart capacities now, but at least getting up-to-date charts on the OEX even if I can't tailor those charts as I'm accustomed. I'm still scrambling to orient myself, but do note that five-minute MACD shows tentative bearish divergence with OEX price, with price having moved to a new high since yesterday morning's MACD high, but with the MACD so far having reached a much lower high. This is just a five-minute chart, and so should not be used to characterize the whole day's trading, especially as the 60-minute chart does not show the same price/MACD bearish divergence, but perhaps it should be watched.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  11:14:36 AM
What a deal... Xerox (XRX) warns for its FY04 earnings and Merrill Lynch upgrades it to a "buy". The stock is shooting higher this morning, up 6.87%, on strong volume of 8.6 million shares (average is 5M). The gap higher today has broken resistance at its simple 50-dma and the $11.00 mark. The stock had spent the last two weeks consolidating between its 50-dma (resistance) and its 200-dma (support). Speculative traders may want to watch it for a breakout over the $11.50-11.65 region.

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  11:08:21 AM
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is up 2.43% to $77.21 and hitting new highs after Bear Stearns upgraded the stock to an "out perform". The stock had broken its short-term trend of lower highs yesterday so today's upgrade is really juicing the move higher.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  11:07:12 AM
I might not have charts yet, but IB is at least providing me with prices, and I note that the OEX will soon challenge the 520.80-521.25 zone that should be strong resistance. If I remember correctly, 523-523.50 might be expected to be next strong resistance after that, but I'm going from memory only. The nested five-minute Keltner channels should be getting rather overstretched to the upside, although this morning's decline might have taken a lot of the overbought pressure away, at least on a five-minute basis.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  11:04:42 AM
United Kingdom warning that its intelligence warns that terrorist attacks may be "imminent" in Turkish cities.

SPX = 1,054.36, QQQ= $35.30

 
 
  James Brown   11/25/20,  11:02:46 AM
Linda, I have the same problem with Qcharts. Don't laugh but I read last night there is a new batch of solar flares erupting from the sun. A few weeks ago Qcharts said many of its feeds are satellite based and the radiation from the flares interrupts their signals.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  10:59:37 AM
I'm still trying to resolve the chart issues I'm having with Q-charts today. I've downloaded another charting source, but am unable to call up OEX charts on that service, either, as of yet. Perhaps I can at least be of help in reporting on volume patterns. So far, today, they've remained bullish, with adv/dec ratios at 19/10 on the NYSE as of a few minutes ago, and 17:10 on the Nasdaq. Up volume was about 1.9 times down volume on the NYSE and a much stronger 3.3 times down volume on the Nasdaq. Total volume was 327 million on the NYSE and 565 million on the Nasdaq. New highs were strong, at 367, while new lows numbered only 10.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:59:11 AM
S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 331.00 +0.06% ... while fractional gain, bids to session high here.

While there isn't a bank in the bunch... QQQ $35.35 +0.48% approaching session high of $35.41.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  10:44:29 AM
The put to call ratio printed .47 as of 10:30 EST. Combined with the VXO scoping the low 17's, it looks like a surge in optimism to me, difficult to sustain.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:42:19 AM
Daily Pivot Matrix ... shows dollar, 10-year YIELD and BIX.X trading lower to DAILY Pivots.

As for major equity indices, not trade at DAILY Pivot or DAILY R1.

Dollar, bond, bank action does hint to lower trade for major indices though based on the DAILY pivot matrix levels traded. Still very early.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:38:46 AM
SPX 1,052.48 +0.03% .... session high/low so far has been 1,053.91-1,049.31.

Per last night's Index Trader Wrap and today's Pivot Matrix, has not come close to tentative support correlation of 1,046.50 despite some mutliple buy/sell program premium alerts.

Hints more of some intstitutional positioning at this point than anything.

With U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.38 -0.22% (30-min delayed) I' leaning toward some softeness in equities, but major indices holding tough at relatively unchanged right now.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:30:13 AM
Buy Program Prem. Alert SPX = 1.051.43 , QQQ = $35.23

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  10:29:29 AM
I'm downloading another charting source, trying to get intraday charts on the OEX while waiting for Q-charts to work. So far, the download and setting up is taking longer than I expected. I'll be back as soon as possible. So far, I'm still noting the OEX above the 60-minute 100/130-pma's.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:26:03 AM
QQQ $35.23 +0.14% ... here's quick look at QQQ on 5-min. intervals, but this time with MONTHLY/WEEKLY pivot analysis retracement overlaid. I've also turned on extended session, which shows this morning's QQQ pop to $35.55 in pre-market when Q3 GDP was released. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  10:24:14 AM
Nice strength in the miners, HUI +3.29 at 233.96, XAU +1.78 at 104.57.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:15:08 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.48 -0.12% ... WEEKLY R1 is 91.53, so just below.

QQQ short needs/wants dollar weakness after such strong economic reports.

Treasuries find fractionaly buying with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 3.4 basis points to 4.193%.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:10:32 AM
QQQ $35.20 +0.05% ... day trade short here, stop $35.51, target $34.76.

First test for any intra-day weakness would be a 5-min close below $35.05.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  10:08:59 AM
Opening put to call ratio neutral at .66, VXO 17.15.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:07:23 AM
Sell Porgram Prem Alert SPX = 1,052.00, QQQ = $35.25

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:04:41 AM
SPX 1,053.45 +0.14% ... first sell program is gobbled up by the markets. Way too soon to say institutional sentiment is negative (in my opinion).

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/20,  10:03:11 AM
Two extremely strong economic reports with sharp spikes and both were sold quickly and strongly. What does that tell you about institutional sentiment? There are still sellers from last week and they are trying to use the normally bullish Thanksgiving week to sell into. If this carries over into tomorrows reports AND any are negative then it could get ugly. Dow still stuck at 9750.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  10:00:20 AM
Sell Program Premium Alert ... SPX 1,052.24

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  9:59:30 AM
QQQ $35.31 +0.35%

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  9:58:51 AM
November Consumer Confidence 91.7 where economists' forecast was 85.0 and compares to October's 81.1 reading.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/20,  9:58:43 AM
Existing home sales 6.35 million and less than the estimates

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/20,  9:58:08 AM
Consumer Sentiment = 91.7 (est 85.0, last 81.1)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  9:56:54 AM
I apologize for my absence, but I'm still trying to find a Q-charts server that will give me up-to-date intraday OEX charts. So far, I've been unsuccessful, but I'm out here working. I note from another quote source, without the charts I need, that the OEX has bumped above the 519.15 level that I'd had marked as horizontal resistance on my charts. The pitchfan chart I watch shows signficant resistance at about 520.90, which fits right in with the strong, known 520.80-521.25 resistance.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  9:55:11 AM
6 day repo in the amount of 6.5B, for a net drain of 1.25B from the Fed.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  9:54:11 AM
5 minutes to Con-con (est. 85) and existing home sales (est 6.53M).

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/20,  9:47:34 AM
Rumor making the rounds this morning that JNPR may make an offer for MRVC

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/25/20,  9:43:58 AM
Santelli said it best, traders were looking for more than +8% and the rally yesterday was in anticipation of a strong number. Remember that we have 13 economic reports tomorrow morning. This is the equivalent of a washed out bridge instead of a couple potholes in the road to 10,000. It is not insurmountable and a barrage of strong reports could lift us over that ditch but if +8.2% GDP can't produce a bounce then what will it take? My thought is after the super strong GDP traders will be looking hard at the numbers for signs of weakness to see if Q3 was a one quarter wonder. Any sign of weakness could be magnified in market reaction.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  9:42:03 AM
I'm flying blind today, without charts for the OEX on Q-charts. The data has been incomplete for the last week, as sometimes they delete some days' data and some days they delete data from different days. Today, it's today's data that's missing. Couple this with economic numbers still to be released this morning and my absence this afternoon, and we're really at a handicap deciding on a posture with relationship to the OEX.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  9:41:46 AM
QQQ $35.24 +0.22% .... here's QQQ intra-day chart on 5-min. intervals. Link

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  9:39:40 AM
7.75B in repos expires today. We await the Fed's 10AM update with respect thereto.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  9:38:13 AM
We are apparently not getting up-to-date information on the OEX on Q-charts, at least not on the server I'm using.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  9:35:25 AM
QQQ $35.14 -0.14% .... I've place 5-MRT on QQQ. With fractional weakness here, looking for pre-10:00 AM EST economic data support at $34.89.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  9:32:11 AM
The OEX opens above the 60-minute 100/130-pma's, opening near yesterday's high. It now climbs into a horizontal trendline I've got marked on my charts, just above 519.15. I'm not sure when I first put this trendline on my chart as it extends back through October, but sometimes these old trendlines come into play again, so let's see if it does this time, too.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  9:23:53 AM
QQQ ... finished yesterday's trade at $35.18 and $35.34 in this morning's pre-market. Pre-market trade did see a tick at $35.55 just after Q3 GDP. Traders will note $35.55 is WEEKLY R2 in Pivot Matrix.

Pre-market low has been $35.31, which is a smidge above the MONTHLY 38.2% retracement.

Day trader may look for early morning range of $35.30-$35.55.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  9:21:45 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 91.47 -0.14% .... while I'm 30-minute delayed, dollar slipping back a bit from yesterday's rather sharp rebound. This has me thinking stocks may open higher as depicted by futures, but may not see a sharp move up from cash open at 09:30 AM EST.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  9:17:23 AM
With futures reaching up to pierce near resistance as the surprise GDP number was released but then falling back afterward, it's difficult to assess where the cash markets might open. I'm going to be particularly watchful as to whether the OEX opens above or below the 60-minute 100/130-pma's. An open below those averages, currently at 517.30 and 517.47 seems unlikely at this point, however. I see possible upside to 520.80-522 before the OEX hits next strong resistance, but futures this morning seemed to reject those higher numbers, so I wouldn't bank on a climb above them just yet, especially ahead of the 10:00 numbers.

Since I'll be away from my desk from about 1:30 this afternoon and may not be back before the market closes, I won't be entering any plays myself and will not likely be signaling any Swing Trades, either. I'll let you know what I see as the morning develops, however.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  8:29:55 AM
8:30am U.S. Q3 GDP REVISED TO 8.2% FROM 7.2%

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  8:29:11 AM
GDP 8.2%.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/25/20,  8:28:57 AM
Awaiting preliminary GDP, est 7.6%, as futures attempt liftoff here.

8:30am U.S Q3 AFTER-TAX PROFITS UP 10.6% SEQUENTIALLY

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/25/20,  7:17:50 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei closed up 107.37 points or 1.09%, at 9960.20, but that close was less than one point above the day’s low and 100 points below the day’s high. Soon after opening, the Nikkei had climbed as high as 10,064, but was unable to maintain levels above 10,000. The dollar had gained against the yen, propping up trading, with techs, construction stocks, and banks gaining. Banks gained ahead of their after-the-bell earnings, and construction stocks gained on news of a merger of two major domestic construction companies. Automakers fell.

Elsewhere in Asia, many bourses gained significantly. In Taiwan on Monday, the government said that October’s export orders rose 20% due to the increased sales of cell phones, laptop computers, and flat-panel displays. The Taiwan Weighted gained 0.68%. In China, TV makers declined when the U.S. accused them of selling their products in the U.S. below cost, and threatened to levy duties as the trade-war talk heats up. China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.31% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.35%. In South Korea, credit card company LG Card, in the news yesterday because its creditors decided on a program to rescue it from bankruptcy, is back in the news with an announcement that it would cut 25% of its work force. The company lost ground in Tuesday’s trading, too. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.92%. Singapore’s Straits Times gained 0.58%.

Most European bourses gain, too. Today, the EU finance ministers agreed on an amendment to the stability pact that would have required France and Germany to rein in their deficit spending to 3% of their GDP’s. On CNBC Europe, commentators ask if this is the death of the stability pact. Some consider France and Germany got away with something, while others feel that it was appropriate to take a second look at the 10-year-old pact since it was designed for a different environment. In Germany, the Ifo index for November showed a better-than-expected 95.7 number, showing business confidence and expectations increasing. That good news was balanced by the lower-than-expected earnings of insurer Munich Re for Q3, with losses expected for the full year. On CNBC Europe, those losses were termed massive losses, and were losses the company attributed mostly to seasonal factors. On CNBC Europe this morning, the CEO said that he was relatively optimistic about next year’s performance, saying that stocks were still attractive to them and that the stabilization of the euro should help their performance. Belgian-Dutch bank and insurer Fortis also disappointed in its earnings release, with that stock also easing in early European trading. Nokia was another decliner, also disappointing investors with its presentation in Dallas yesterday. In France, housing starts, housing permits, and consumption of manufactured goods all increased.

As of this writing, the FTSE 100 was up 23.20 points or 0.53%, to 4405.60. The CAC 40 was up 18.89 points or 0.55%, to 3430.94. The DAX was up 23.37 points or 0.63%, to 3760.46.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/24/20,  8:53:44 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/24/20,  7:58:29 PM
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