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  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  5:09:24 PM
Flu virus going around.

We all have enough to worry about, but just a cautionary note to some parents out there.

Just learned this afternoon that my nephew's best friend (8 years old) died earlier this week from the flu. Evidently his parents took him to the doctor on Friday, doctor said to keep a close eye on him. By Saturday, parents took the little boy to the hospital, where he died on Monday.

I guess this stuff is really bad and little kids' body just has a very hard time fighting it off.

Wyeth (WYE) $40.15 +6.35% Link and MedImmune (MEDI) $23.30 (unch) Link have partnered on FluMist Link and there was news a couple of weeks ago (11/17/03) that sales were not as robust as previously forecasted.

One note I'll make is that recent trade at $23.00 in MedImmune (MEDI) has stock below its bearish vertical count of $27 from August.

Wyeth (WYE) received favorable news today in a diet drug case. Bearish vertical count on WYE also from August is currently to $34.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  4:30:33 PM
Happy Thanksgiving to all our readers! We have much to be thankful for.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  4:12:28 PM
QQQ $35.35 ..... gobble, gobble, gobble..... upside alert here at bullish day trade target of $35.35.

Would rather close it out here at downward trend, then get a 5-MRT on Friday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  4:10:08 PM
QQQ $35.31 +0.36% ..... getting close to $35.35. Each penny a struggle. 3 minutes to close.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  4:07:57 PM
Swing Trade Summary: OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
11/26: Entered a bearish OEX trade at OEX 519.02.
11/26: Stopped at 519.02.
Result for that day: 0.00 OEX points against or toward our position.
Results for the week: 0.00 OEX points against or toward our position.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  4:05:58 PM
QQQ $35.27 +0.25% ... quick estimate for tomorrow's DAILY pivots.

Using low/high/close for today of $34.81, $35.52 and $35.25 this would give following DAILY levels.

S2=34.48, S1= 34.87, P=35.19, R1= 35.58 R2=35.90.

Note DAILY S1 and R2 are very close to WEEKLY R1 and S2

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/26/20,  4:03:23 PM
Happy Thanksgiving you all you guys (and gal) over here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  4:00:53 PM
QQQ $35.29 +0.31% ... afternoon highs here.

With SPX 1,058.28 looking to close above its WEEKLY R2 of 1,058.09, will have to think QQQ bias is higher still.

As such... will stick with today's day trade bullish target of $35.35, stop $35.03.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  3:51:01 PM
The OEX is right back at that 521.25 level that proved so tough in previous weeks. It's pierced it a couple of times over the last couple of days but hasn't been able to maintain that level. Will it this afternoon? If so, that may set the stage for a Friday rally, if there's no event over the holiday.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  3:38:51 PM
In case I forget later, everyone have a safe and fun holiday. Don't think about the markets. As Mark Phillips has cautioned at other times, if your positions are so overstretched that you're not going to be able to enjoy your holiday, consider lightening up ahead of the holiday or protecting them with a hedge of some sort. For those of us trading options, consider whether you want to endure the premium decay over the holiday, too.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  3:30:21 PM
HUI has strapped on the boosters, now up 11.11 to 244.33. XAU is up 3.61 to 108.18. The HUI is at a new alltime high.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  3:26:15 PM
A little bit of trivia...

The First Thanksgiving on N. American soil was in....the autumn of 1621 where the colonists invited 90 of the local Indians to a feast for helping them survive the previous year.

After we became the United States congress suggested one day a year for the whole nation to offer thanksgiving. George Washington actually suggested November 26th but it wasn't until 1863, after the end of the civil war, that Abraham Lincoln asked Americans to use the last Thursday in November as a day of Thanksgiving.

It wasn't until 1941 that Congress officially made the 4th Thursday in November as a federal holiday.

 
 
  Andy Aronson   11/26/20,  3:20:42 PM
Reader's Write -- "Iron Condor" Follow-Up Part II

Hello LB...I think the first thing to realize is the fact that the market would have to rise or fall over 5% in a month to result in an unprofitable outcome. The risk to reward ratio is going to look awful but if you expect that a vast majority of your positions will expire worthless (a good outcome), I feel the ratio is worth the risk. I am currently advising client to be careful of selling options (especially puts) in this very low volatility market. If and when volatility returns to the market, we will see short options explode in price.

I work with my clients to help formulate and manage positions in all markets. The commission cost is a good value, if you have someone to advise and help you when the market really gets wild. We are always here to recommend strategies to keep our clients out of trouble.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  3:19:09 PM
Thinking can be dangerous ... especially for me, but a day trader that want to finishes flat before the close should probably look to close out at QQQ $35.22 , QQQ is $35.22 here.

However... and here is where I start thinking.... with the QQQ right back in the middle of the range, I'm starting to think that the last sell program in the late morning trade, was simply a computerized balancing of inventory, where the positive build from WEEKLY R1 could then begin, with room to WEEKLY R2. If so, then a short-term trader from $34.90 bull entry, might be willing to carry over (does have some event risk of terrorism) the Thanksgiving weekend, with thoughts of seeing further bullish carry-over into Friday's trade. While all along, still keeping a stop at $35.03

 
 
  Andy Aronson   11/26/20,  3:16:36 PM
Readers Write -- "Iron Condor" Follow-Up

Hi Andrew...Ray Cummins referred me to you in his email.

Seems like Iron Condors, unless one tightens the range between the strikes of the sold call and the sold put, results in a high risk to low reward. Is what I am doing advisable? I used a wide range of 135 points thinking it will not be threatened in the 4 to 5 weeks to expiration, unless there is an awful terrorist attack causing a string of circuit-breaker "limit down" days. Earning $404 on a margin (collateral) of $2300 results in a super monthly return. Even doubling the margin for price swings gives one an enviable annualized return. LB

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  3:15:43 PM
An astute reader asks whether we're seeing inverse continuation H&S's build on the OEX and SPX intraday charts, such as the ten-minute charts. I do see the possible formation this reader mentions, but one thing I checked was to see whether there was bullish divergence when the possible head formed. In other words, the formation of that head occurred when the OEX reached a lower low than the previous low. MACD and stochastics also reached lower lows, though, not diverging from the price. If they had reached higher lows while price was reaching a lower low, we'd certainly be even more watchful of this possible formation.

With that said, however, I've seen spotty performances from these continuation inverse H&S formations lately. I've seen some that weren't classical and yet a neckline break saw the upside target more than fulfilled. I've seen some that looked as classical as possible in all particulars, and were inverse H&S that had formed over many months on the weekly charts, and so should be rock solid, and yet a neckline break turned out to be a false one with the particular stock turning around after a week or so and zooming down.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  3:12:34 PM
Fibonacci (retracement) traders may want to take a look at Electronic Arts (ERTS). The recent sell off bounced from the 38.2% retracement of its Feb-low to October-high run up. Today shares are trading up over the round-number support/resistance level at $45.00. Watch to see how it reacts to its 10 & 100-dma that are converging just overhead.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   11/26/20,  3:11:41 PM
Spreads/Combos -- Reader's Write E-mail Replies Part II

Concerning potential adjustments for an unexpectedly large move in the underlying, the most common technique would involve "rolling" up or down (and possibly out), since you can't really cover with a long or short position. In that regard, many experienced traders would initiate the adjustment prior to or very near the time when the underlying moves past the sold strike price, not afterwards.

As with most strategies, timeliness is a critical aspect of success and a timely exit or adjustment trade is even more essential with limited-profit positions. Since I am not a broker, I can't give you any specific advice on option trading. However, if you want a hands-on explanation of the position management techniques for credit spreads, send a note to Andrew Aronson, option principle at Man Financial. He is one of the contributing (professional) writers here at the OIN and his expertise/viewpoints on option strategies are a wonderful resource for new traders. His E-mail address is: Aaronson@OptionInvestor.com

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  3:10:14 PM
QQQ $35.17 -0.14% .... wait just a minute. If it's true that the head honcho's are gone for an extended weekend and the indices trade between WEEKLY R1 and WEEKLY R2 into Friday's close, then maybe it makes sense regarding today's final sell program premium alert, which came at approx. QQQ $35.25.

If I take the range between WEEKY R1 and WEEKLY R2, divide it in half, I come up with $35.22.

This $35.22 is also today's 5-MRT Red #3.

 
 
  Ray Cummins   11/26/20,  3:08:38 PM
Spreads/Combos -- Readers Write E-mail Replies

Regarding the Condor position:

First, glad to have you aboard!. All of the folks here at the OIN/PIN take pride in offering some of the best stock/option information available on the internet, and at a reasonable price.

As far as the spread strategy you described, the profit potential (approx 8-9%/month) is acceptable as long as the risk is appropriate for your portfolio. Many professional traders use the approach you described (opposing deep-OTM credit spreads on index-based futures) and it is a viable technique when implemented correctly and managed diligently.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  3:05:08 PM
QQQ $35.13 -0.14% ... quick little drop in last 5-minutes. Hey! The bond market closed earlier today. Just because its 03:00 PM, doesn't mean things have to liven up again....

 
 
  Ray Cummins   11/26/20,  3:04:37 PM
Spreads/Combos -- Reader's Write E-mail Replies

Hi Ray...You guys have a great site! I signed up for a 2 week freebie and will join when the trial period is over. I have a question regarding return/risk and need your input. I currently have the following Dec 2003 S&P 500 future (SP) option Iron Condor which I entered on Nov 13th when the price was approx. 1055. Long put 965, short put 985, short call 1120, long call 1140. I collected a total of 2 pts x $250 or $500 less commissions and fees of $24 x 4 legs for a net of $404. This required approx. $2300 in margin.

The 20 point difference in the strikes "limits" my loss to 20 pts. less the 2 pts. premium received x $250 = $4500 of risk. This, if my thinking is correct, means I have a return to risk of $404 to $4500 or 9%. Is my strategy reasonable? Am I insane to risk that much for so little return? If either strikes were penetrated what exit plan should I incorporate? Being a novice in Iron Condors any advice you can provide will be eternally appreciated. LB

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  3:01:40 PM
Buy/Sell program prem. alerts have been non-existant since the 10:45 AM EST sell program alert.

This gives me some thought that indeed the head traders are either home, or headed to the parents/inlaws house for the Thanksgiving weekend at lunchtime.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  2:56:14 PM
QQQ $35.21 +0.08% ... updated 5-minute bar chart. Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  2:55:33 PM
Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) has been able to maintain its gains from Monday's breakout and is close to breaking out to yet another new all-time high. If you're loath to chase it, a bounce from the $60 might be worth noting.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  2:53:54 PM
Next resistance for the OEX is at the old familiar 520.80, where Keltner band resistance groups near historical S/R.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  2:49:43 PM
Brokers are arguing over Dollar Tree (DLTR). A recent downgrade has promoted both Wedbush Morgan and USB to reiterate their "buy" and "strong buy" ratings, respectively. Unfortunately, their comments are not lifting the stock, which is down 8.4% and breaking support at $32. There is a chance it will bounce at its 200-dma just above the $30 level. Volume today is extremely strong at several times the average.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  2:44:14 PM
Phelps Dodge (PD) $63.27 +2.86% Link ... All that talk about palladium and metals (see 14:38) has me checking in on good'ol Phelpsy today. After achieving its bullish vertical count of $57, PD finally gave a negating sell signal at $59.00. Setting upside alert at $65, which would be a triple-top buy signal, get the stock back on a "buy signal" and begin building a bullish vertical count of $78.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  2:40:43 PM
Traders who are still feeling bullish on tech may want to keep an eye on SanDisk Corp (SNDK). The recent consolidation has brought it back toward its 50-dma and the bottom of its rising channel. Currently trading at 79.71, a move over $81.50 might be a trigger point for its next leg higher.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/26/20,  2:39:00 PM
The Commerce Department reported that American companies profits rose 30% more in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier. This is the largest year-over-year growth in profits in 19 years and was enough to lift the annual pace of profits above $1 trillion for the first time in history.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  2:38:29 PM
North American Palladium (AMEX:PAL) $6.97 (unch) Link ... Any chance you might give a current insight to pal. I bought after it reached 6. It has gone on a tear and now is rollercoasting.

Your articles are brilliant if I can't or haven't time tp go into all you show us how to do.

Well... we'll see how "briliant" this analysis is, because I can't figure out for sure how/why PAL has done as well has it has as just last night I was looking at some metals futures and December Palladium (pa03z) $188.80 -0.05% still remains in a downward trend and just hasn't been able to get above the $210 level, where it was the gains in copper that had me turning to palladium, which then had me finding PAL and SWC $8.45 +1.31% Link from $7.00.

The thought is that stocks tend to lead the advance in the commodity, and that is definately the case with PAL and SWC, but a PAL or SWC bull would like to see some confirmation come from palladium itself.

I think this lag in palladium is why PAL is herky/jerky of late, with honorable mention that PAL's PnF chart shows PAL currently testing its longer-term bearish resistance trend.

PAL bull (in a smaller cap stock) might snug a stop up to break-even, but still give some room to breath.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  2:31:54 PM
Volume patterns have actually improved a little since my last check, with adv:dec ratios now bullish on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Adv:dec ratios were 20:11 on the NYSE and 17:14 on the Nasdaq, up from the earlier 15:16. Up versus down volume has shown the most improvement, however, with up volume more than double down volume on the NYSE and the Nasdaq, too. Total volume was 771 million shares on the NYSE and 1.1 billion on the Nasdaq.

My reading this weekend suggested that it was a good idea to buy the dip on Wednesday and hold until Monday, and I guess some others read that same article last weekend. They bought the dip just a point or so above where I hoped they would this morning. I'm not sure I'd want to be holding a big bullish position over this holiday season, though.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  2:28:44 PM
Crossing the wires... the Pentagon is calling up more troops for Iraq.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  2:26:52 PM
I'm finally back online....

Did anyone else think those Wiggle guys on CNBC a while ago looked like Star Trek crew members?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  2:23:50 PM
QQQ $35.23 +0.17% .... raising bullish stop to $35.03 from breakeven here.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  2:21:14 PM
Trimble Navigation (TRMB) $30.18 -0.29% Link ... TRMB closing above 30 level - and sustaining that level today seems to work well.

What would you suggest as stops as per PF charting.

While TRMB is perhaps an ideal stock for trading options on, the conventional PnF chart shows first sign of weakness or a sell signal way back below at $20.

One technique a PnF chartist will use is to change the conventional scale a bit, get the PnF chart to give a tighter stop. How about the PnF chart of TRMB with scale set at $0.50? Like this.... Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  2:11:33 PM
Does anyone else see something worrisome about a stock that was $3.75 in the middle of March and now is pushing above $75.00 today? The stock is TASR. I know Jeff has profiled this in the past, and that he did very well on the bullish side, if I'm remembering correctly, but enough is enough, don't you think? To illustrate how dangerous it is to step in front of such a freight train, however, the stock has climbed $0.20 while I was typing this entry. This is not a suggestion for you to step in front of that train, either, but only indicative of the scary things I find when I'm researching individual stocks.

To counter that, though, I'm also finding some stocks that have been basing a long time and now are moving toward the lip of saucer or cup formations. Most of those will now need to pull back and form a handle to go with those cups, but they look ready to climb after that's done. Conflicting information.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  2:03:39 PM
This morning, the OEX broke through an ascending trendline that had been supporting prices since about midday on Monday. That was one of the triggers for our bearish play. Now the OEX has risen to test that trendline again, with the trendline also rising through the day.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  1:57:56 PM
Volume as of a few moments ago was 703 million shares for the NYSE and 1 billion for the Nasdaq. Adv:dec ratios were 19:12 for the NYSE and 15:16 for the Nasdaq. Up volume was 1.7 times down volume on the NYSE, but only slightly ahead on the Nasdaq. New highs vastly outnumbered new lows, however, as has been true for a long time. I remember back about April or May when I thought the imbalance was getting extreme, about the time bullish percent numbers were hitting scary levels and the VIX was hitting a dangerously low 26, the levels that had marked its lows since mid-2002. This just goes to show that extreme can become even more extreme or stay extreme longer than you can remain solvent.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  1:53:50 PM
QQQ $35.09 -0.19% .... here's a screen capture of QQQ at about 12:50 PM EST where QQQ did extend higher to $35.22 and Red #3. Link

In 01:00 PM EST update, wanted to raise stop in QQQ bullish trade to break-even.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  1:46:43 PM
The put to call ratio is neutral at .74, VXO at 16.30. Market trying its best to grind to a halt.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  1:35:23 PM
The OEX rose up to test the 30-minute 21-pma and now may be rolling down beneath it. Thirty-minute RSI, CCI, and momentum already turn down, but MACD hasn't yet committed to a downturn.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  1:23:22 PM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We were just stopped out of our OEX position as the OEX moved above our 519.02 entry. At the time of the entry, the December 520 put was 8 x 8.50. At the time the stop was hit, it was 8 x 8.20.

Note: This stop was actually hit about 30 minutes ago, but I was unable to post it.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  12:25:53 PM
Jeff might be right about a bullish cast to the rest of the day. The OEX 30-minute oscillators show a distinct tendency to try to hook up again. Five-minute Keltner channels show the OEX now facing important resistance. We could just get stopped out by a few cents before another rollover, but I don't want to risk a big flagpole relief rally, either, and would rather this play were stopped at breakeven. The two-minute inverse H&S formation I was watching did confirm, but two-minute patterns are not particularly trustworthy. If this one is, however, it predicts further upside.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  12:12:20 PM
It's just after 12:00 PM EST on the East coast. Head traders that will be heading out early should be leaving their trading desks here. May have now finished up their institutional sell orders and headed out the door early.

Instruction to support trader is "don't screw anything up" and markets tend to take on more of a bullish bias.

We shall see if this often-found trade takes place...

Benchmarking ... SPX = 1,052.31, OEX = 518.54, NDX = 1,407, QQQ = $35.00, BIX.X = 331.89

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  12:10:16 PM
S&P Banks (BIX.X) 331.85 +0.02% .... only equity-based index in our DAILY pivot matrix to not see a trade at DAILY S1 or DAILY R1. Bugger has been steady at its DAILY Pivot (331.26) all session.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  12:07:59 PM
Our press hard at work... From the Houston Chronicle less than 1 hour ago:

NEW YORK - Wall Street pushed higher for a fourth straight day today after a trio of economic reports gave investors assurance the economic recovery was firmly under way.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  12:07:18 PM
QQQ $35.03 -0.4% .... back to its DAILY S1.

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  12:03:44 PM
A little late? ... Deutsche Bank downgraded Lincare (LNCR) to a "sell" this morning. In the last two weeks the stock had dropped from $44 to $29 (35% drop) on huge volume. The stock has been hammered after some Medicare reimbursement cuts.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  12:00:25 PM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
I don't like those inverse H&S formations I'm seeing on the charts, and the OEX version looks as if it's about to confirm. Let's lower our stops to breakeven.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  12:00:08 PM
QQQ $34.97 -0.59% .... session low came at $34.81, which was right at Red #8 of stacked lower 5-MRT. From there, recent high has been $35.01, but so far haven't seen a 5-minute bar close back above RED #6 of $34.99.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  11:58:19 AM
Fed Beige Book: Link

 
 
  James Brown   11/26/20,  11:56:52 AM
After hitting new 2-year highs yesterday, shares of Suntrust Banks (STI) are slipping back to the $70 level after Friedman cut the stock to an "under perform". The stock looks extended but it wouldn't surprise me to see it bounce higher from $70.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  11:49:26 AM
I'm seeing some inverse H&S-ish patterns on some 2-minute charts, such as that of the Dow, with a confirmation level now being tested. The OEX is now testing one, too. If it confirms, its upside target will take us out of our play.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  11:46:08 AM
Buy/Sell Program Prem Alerts .... the sell prog. prem alert of 10:45-10:50 was the doozy and sent the SPX falling from 1,055-1,052.64.

Similar time on the QQQ was $35.23-$34.99.

This observation for QQQ has $35.23 now very close to being mid-point of yesterday's very tight range, and may have this $35.25 area being somewhat of an apex to a very tight triangle or "P" pattern, where an intra-day bounce back to $35.25 might be the better bounce target for today.

To soon to be looking for $35.25 on the QQQ here, as first sign of rebound looks to be a trade above $35.00.

QQQ $34.94 here.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  11:43:06 AM
Reader Question: Do we have short days today and Friday?

Response: The NYSE and Nasdaq will be open today through normal hours, but will close at 1:00 EST on Friday. The bond market closes at 2:00 EST today, I believe, and also closes at the same time Friday, if I've got that right. Here's a link to the Bond Market Association's holiday schedule for the year: Link and that for the NYSE: Link

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  11:34:13 AM
QQQ $34.88 -0.83% .... session low now $34.81. Here's quick updated 10-minute interval chart with stacked lower 5-MRT. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  11:30:40 AM
Swing Trade Exit Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Lower stop to 519.50.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  11:27:09 AM
GE to a new session low.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  11:10:15 AM
We should expect to see a measured distribution pattern set up now, perhaps one that sees the OEX inch up during the lunchtime lull. If the OEX instead just continues to plummet . . . well, we'll just enjoy that, won't we? That's not my expectation, however. I expect to see a back-and-forth tight pattern of higher highs and higher lows rising off support and into what should now be resistance just below 520. The difficulty of being in any bearish play is waiting while these measured distribution patterns play out, knowing that if you're taken out of the play, it will be near the top of these patterns.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  11:01:24 AM
The midpoint of today's decline lies near 519.75. If today's trading is to remain bearish, the bounce really should not take the OEX past that point--familiar from yesterday as it was also a midpoint yesterday--but I'm going to leave our stop where it is for a few minutes longer in case the OEX should overshoot that level in a light-volume environment. I expect this trade to be a choppy one today, as everyone knows about the bullish tendencies that used to be prevalent on a Wednesday before Thanksgiving (but not so prevalent since 1987) and will be trying to buy the dip.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:58:11 AM
The OEX now approaches the 60-minute 100/130-pma's at 517.69 and 517.76. This should be a bounce point, our first test.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:55:46 AM
QQQ $34.90 -0.82% .... Red #7 on stacked lower 5-MRT, as well as WEEKLY R1 and DAILY S2.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:55:38 AM
Swing Trade Signals
I'm worried about the OEX 517 level and then the 516 level, too. Actually, I, too, expect some sort of rally or bounce if the OEX pierces the 50-dma, as I mentioned earlier, as I expect that there will be an effort to then close the OEX back above that average. We're going to be really watchful of this position and may soon be lowering our stop to breakeven.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  10:54:12 AM
At this point I would be really surprised to see a retest of the highs.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:53:10 AM
I do what I can to be helpful, Jim.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  10:52:37 AM
Thank you Linda for going short. Now maybe we have a chance for an afternoon bounce to get short from a higher level. (grin)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:50:37 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
We are in a bearish OEX position from 519.02. Stop 520.50. Target 515. To benchmark, the December 520 put was 8.00 x 8.50 just after the signal was issued in the MM.

I expected a retest of the broken support near 519.30, but have we already had it? I don't want to see a new 2-minute high, with the last 2-minute high at 520.24. Those who have more tolerance for risk could set their stops up at 521.25 or even above the day's high.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:50:34 AM
QQQ $35.03 -0.42% .... quick decline here, Day trade long QQQ for $34.90 entry, stop $34.70, target $35.35.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:47:37 AM
U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 90.68 -0.84% ... sharp decline in the dollar taking place.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:45:57 AM
Swing Trade Entry Point Alert - OEX/SPX/DJX/DIA/SPY
Let's enter a bearish OEX play here. Stop 520.50. Target 515.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:41:08 AM
Challenging ... I here you there Jane (10:35:55) and it just seems like bulls and bears are not going to move out of their chairs ahead of the holiday. A lot of economic data to influence some type of decision, but things just seem pegged right now.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  10:40:41 AM
The put to call ratio is up to .75, VXO 16.53. The indices appear to be trying to form a short cycle bottom here, but the downphase still has room to run lower.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:36:50 AM
The OEX is drifting down, continuing to test the trendline that has supported those small-bodied candles over the last few days, since the big climb during Monday's first hour of trading. The midpoint of that big candle should be support, if the OEX should decline that far, with that midpoint being just above 515. If I hadn't seen so many of these "b" distribution patterns fail to confirm lately and if support weren't so close, I'd probably be risking an entry on a fall through 519.35, the site of the 30-minute 21-pma, the confirmation level of the double-top, and the ascending trendline as seen on the 30-minute and 60-minute charts, or else hoping for a higher entry on a lower high. I'm still itching to do it, but keep reminding myself that anything I'm seeing on the charts can be swamped by a single, moderate buy program on a low-volume day.

 
 
  Jane Fox   11/26/20,  10:35:55 AM
What I am seeing different about today Jeff is my indicators are supporting the price movement, yesterday they were bearish but price just kept moving up. Yesterday was a challenge for me.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:29:11 AM
Not sure Jane (10:27:36) I think many are still suffering hangovers from St. Patrick's day this spring.

Today's trade looks very similar to yesterday..... doesn't it?

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:27:07 AM
That OEX "b" distribution pattern looks more and more viable, doesn't it? I'm also watching the uptrend line from the 15-minute lows that began 11/24 at about 13:30, with the OEX currently testing that line.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:25:09 AM
QQQ $35.27 +0.25% ... here's 60-minute interval chart of QQQ. Last night I noted a downward trend that looked to be in play and 60-minute chart allows for observation of this trend. Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:14:50 AM
The current OEX five-minute pattern looks like a "b" distribution pattern to me, with that pattern forming just above the confirmation level of the double-top. However, I've noted a number of those "b" distribution patterns that have not confirmed on the daily charts of a lot of equities lately, so that makes me cautious about assuming this one will confirm. I've seen a number of them confirm and drop quickly and steeply, too, which makes me wish I didn't have to feel so cautious and could confidently enter a bearish play. I like to watch what's happening in the underpinnings of the market, though, to help me predict what might happen on the indices, and I'm not getting much clarity lately, but I sure am eyeing this pattern and thinking "bearish play."

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  10:09:58 AM
So far, the OEX has not been able to maintain a level above the high of its first two minutes of trade.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:06:39 AM
WEEKLY Pivot notes After higher open, SPY is still only index/sector in our WEEKLY Pivot Matrix to see a trade at its WEEKLY R2.

See 10:01:08 chart of SPY. I've set an upside alert just above SPY session high, with thought that trade above today's high would be intra-day signal for further strength in indices.

Looking like a blueprint of yesterday's trade for most part.

If you're on the West coast, not too late to close shop, head out to the marsh. Quackers should be coming back from their morning feed by the time you get set up.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  10:01:19 AM
Other than the PMI which blew out to 64.1 from estimates of 56.96 the rest of the numbers were negative. Help Wanted remained at a cycle low, Monthly Mass Layoffs doubled last months 868 and New Home Sales were below estimates. Some cracks appearing in the foundation?

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  10:01:08 AM
SPY 106.23 +0.22% ... low/high has been 106.06-106.44 ... here's intra-day chart of SPY and trader notes. Link

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  9:59:29 AM
Monthly Mass Layoffs = 1,523 (last 868)

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  9:58:30 AM
Help Wanted Index = 37 (est 38, last 37)

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  9:58:20 AM
New Home Sales = 1.100,000 (est 1,122,000, last 1,145,000)

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  9:58:06 AM
Chicago PMI = 64.1 (est 56.9, last 55.0)

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  9:57:32 AM
An examination of the OEX daily chart shows a host of moving averages lining up beneath the current OEX position, down to 516.57, the location of the 50-dma. While it wouldn't be impossible to pierce those averages, I would wonder if the OEX wouldn't then bounce up, so that its candle body closed at or above the 50-dma. So, I'm wondering then if we won't see a close at or above that 50-dma today, even if this should be a pop-and-drop day. That would mean that if I were going to participate in a bearish play, I'd sure be snugging up stops once the OEX approached and then moved below that 50-dma.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  9:53:09 AM
A 6b 2-Day repo replaces the expiring 6.5B for a net 500M drain.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  9:52:52 AM
The OEX now tests this morning's gap. A fall below that gap would be a bearish development--it would also bring the OEX down to test the confirmation level of the double-top formation on its five-minute chart. We should expect at least a tepid bounce attempt near here first, though.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  9:48:58 AM
SPY 106.15 +0.15% .... starting to back fill this morning's gap higher.

Should see QQQ $35.38 follow that trade.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  9:47:51 AM
The OEX five-minute chart now shows a potential for a double-top formation. If the OEX should fall below 519.37, that double-top formation will be confirmed, with a downside target near that old familiar 517. That would probably bring the Dow back to around 9700, so could be expected to be a strong support level. Still, this looks more and more like a possible pop-and-drop day.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  9:47:17 AM
9:47am U.S. NOV. UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS 102.5 VS. 99.0 OCT.

9:47am U.S. NOV. FINAL UMICH EXPECTATIONS 88.1 VS. 83.0 OCT.

9:46am U.S. NOV. UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 93.7 VS 89.6 OCT.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  9:44:31 AM
Note that the rise from Friday's OEX low has cycled the daily 5(3)3 stochastics all the way from levels indicating oversold conditions, almost up to levels indicating overbought conditions, with the lines measuring 91.37 and 66.05 respectively. They still head straight up and haven't shown the slightest tendency to turn down yet, but since ADX remains low, we probably should not expect them to cycle long in territory indicating overbought conditions. That, coupled with the low VIX/VXO and yesterday's doji, indicate that caution is in order if in bullish positions, while not yet predicting an imminent fall.

 
 
  Jim Brown   11/26/20,  9:44:27 AM
Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment = 93.7 , est was for 93.8

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  9:40:30 AM
So far, today's OEX daily candle is not showing a tendency to confirm the potential reversal signaled by yesterday's candle. A classical confirmation would have required the OEX to open below yesterday's close and then to drop, so that yesterday's doji sat above Monday's big white candle and a bearish one produced today. If we should see a pop-and-drop day, with the OEX dropping after the 10:00 reports, for example, the OEX could still produce a non-classical reversal signal, but the day's candle would have an upper shadow and its body would not be totally below the doji.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  9:40:13 AM
QQQ $35.43 +0.68% ... challenging yesterday's high. Here's intra-day QQQ chart with 5-MRT overlaid. Link

May look long any type of QQQ pullback or fill of this morning's gap higher from $35.28-$35.22

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  9:40:02 AM
HUI is up 3.38 to 236.6, XAU +1.11 to 105.73, breakout territory.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  9:37:42 AM
The VXO is still reading 16.29, ten year bonds are down 2.5 bps, but gold is at its session high, +3.20, ditto silver +.077 or 1.45%.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  9:34:11 AM
The OEX is moving big in the first few minutes of trading, so I'm going to be using a 2MRT system instead of a 5MRT to watch the day's trading pattern. In its first two minutes, the OEX produced a high of 521.03 and a low of 520.19. The midpoint of those figures lies at 520.61, with the OEX currently above that figure, showing strength in the earliest trading. We should also watch this morning's gap level for possible support, if the OEX should reverse that far. (For those who want the figures for the first five minutes, the low was still 520.19, of course, and the five-minute high was 521.72.)

The first reversal of the morning usually begins in a few minutes, so we'll watch that first reversal for more signs of underlying strength or weakness, but with other economic reports expected at 9:45 and 10:00, we may not get clarity until after those reports are released. Lately, it has not been a good idea to wait until after the release of the reports to enter, as the move has been well underway by the release of the reports, but it's just not my style to enter ahead of potentially market-moving reports, and I'm going to be cautious about entering any positions this week, anyway.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  9:31:28 AM
The Fed has announced a 7B 15-day repo, which is in place of the usual Thursday repo for which we would normally get tomorrow. We await the 10AM announcement with respect to the expiring 6.5B overnight repo from yesterday.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/26/20,  9:17:58 AM
09:00 Update at this Link

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  9:04:12 AM
It looks as if I missed the only fun yesterday when I was gone for the afternoon. Before I left, I had mentioned that the OEX 30-minute 1.35% and 0.675% envelopes surrounding a 21-pma showed possible upside to just over 525 and 522, respectively. Divergences between the various oscillators--some bearish and some bullish--hinted that it would be difficult for the OEX to achieve either of those upside targets. At the time, it was trading in what looked to be a bear flag, and I mentioned that if the OEX rose much above 519.75, that probably wasn't a measured distribution pattern after all. Later in the day, I mentioned that I didn't really anticipate that the OEX would rise above the 520.80-521.25 resistance zone.

The OEX overshot that 521.25 upper limit by a bit, but then quickly fell back to retest the 30-minute 21-pma, currently at 519.16. Now futures trade higher after the performance in overnight markets and after this morning's economic numbers. With the OEX remaining above the 30- and 60-minute 100/130-pma's and having tested the 30-minute 21-pma, we should perhaps be considering bullish plays today on the theory that the OEX has now come down to test support and has now established that support.

You know what I'm going to say next, don't you? While traditional trading patterns support the idea of a bullish play today, several factors stay my hand. One is that the down 30-minute candles were bigger yesterday than the up candles, with the OEX appearing to labor up and then fall easily and quickly. Another is that the 521.25 resistance level did essentially hold, with a light-volume environment perhaps being responsible for the brief overshooting of that resistance level. Perhaps I was just wrong at placing the upper limit, too. The last reason concerns yesterday's daily candle. That type of high-wave doji can be a reversal signal. It would need to be confirmed by today's trading, but a possible reversal signal coupled with a scary-low VIX/VXO and a low-volume environment do not entice me into bullish plays.

What about bearish ones on the theory we might get a pop-and-drop day? We'll have to see where the OEX opens, as I'm just not good at looking at S&P futures and then gauging where the OEX is going to open. Used to be, but am not any longer. We'll have to see how volume patterns shape up, too, as I don't want to be fighting bullish breadth measurements and sentiment with a bearish play.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  8:29:00 AM
Initial claims 351K, durables 3.3, personal income .4 and personal spending 0.0.

 
 
  Jonathan Levinson   11/26/20,  8:09:24 AM
We await durable orders, est .7%, initial claims, est 360K, personal income est .4% and personal spending, est 0.0%, all at 8:30AM, followed by Michigan Sentiment revision, est 94 at 9:45AM, then at 10AM Chicago PMI est 56.5, Help wanted index est 38 and New home sales, est 1.138M.

 
 
  Linda Piazza   11/26/20,  7:17:02 AM
Good morning. The Nikkei opened higher in Wednesday’s trading, climbing above 10,000 and then above 10,100. The Nikkei closed up 184.63 points or 1.85%, at 10,144.83. Many of the largest Japanese banks raised their profits estimates as part of their first half earnings reports on Tuesday, the dollar climbed against the yen, and U.S. economic data surprised to the upside. All that set the stage for strong performance on the Nikkei even though some analysts weren’t as optimistic about the performance of the banks as investors appeared to be. Automakers, many tech stocks, and exporters gained.

Many tech stocks gained throughout the rest of Asia, too, but not all stocks gained. Chinese and Hong Kong TV makers continued to be pressured by the U.S. threat to levy duties against them. In South Korea, discussions sought ways to rescue credit card company Woori Financial, the second South Korean credit card company this week in the news this week because it was teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Woori gained, but LG Card, the other troubled credit card company in the news this week, declined. Many other stocks throughout Asia saw gains as most Asian bourses climbed. One exception was the Taiwan Weighted, a bourse that closed flat, down 0.01%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.89% and Singapore’s Straits Times gained 1.29%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.65% and China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.25%.

Most European bourses trade higher today, too. The troubled Dutch retailer Royal Ahold, in the news this year because of a need to restate its earnings for U.S. divisions, posted a loss that was termed unexpected and announced plans to sell discounted shares and cut prices to compete with discount retailers such as Wal-Mart. Volkswagen announced that U.S. sales might decline significantly next year. However, Prudential, Deutsche Bank, and HBOS climbed higher. The U.K. raised its estimates for the year’s growth, an unexpected revision, after the gross domestic product grew more than expected. Insurers rose in Europe. Roche Holding was impacted by Genentech’s revelation that one of its cancer drugs did not prolong the lives of cancer patients. Genentech has a majority stake in Roche.

Currently, the FTSE 100 has gained 19.10 points or 0.44%, to trade at 4407.80. The CAC has gained 17.08 points or 0.50%, to trade at 3435.23. The DAX has gained 40.66 points or 1.09%, to trade at 3773.82.

 
 
  Jeff Bailey   11/25/20,  8:51:15 PM
Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

While not always indicative of next day's trade, trader's will note that DAILY S2-R2 ranges are very narrow and way depict a full, but rather narrower range of trade for tomorrow.

 
 
  OI Technical Staff   11/25/20,  8:29:55 PM
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